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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for gettin

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for getting another leadership election spot on

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    Go Jezza!!!!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    Second like Owen Who
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,945
    Return of the Red Liberals?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    Couldn't the PLP "bond" over an "away day" making Jam?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Owen Who

    Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    So, where's the market on the first Labour MP to resign the whip?

    John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis the favourites?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 1,490
    From https://www.loonyparty.com/about/policy-proposals/

    "We shall keep the Falklands and Give Jeremy Corbyn to the Argentinians."
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    YouGov very impressive. Shows Labour Members do not lie to pollsters or change their mind
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Today's headline:

    "SMITH SAVES CORBYN."


    Yougov is annoyingly much better at Labour leadership elections than General Elections or Referendums.
  • nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second like Owen Who

    Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.
    I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.

    I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.

    Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
  • Surely the most important sub figure is that full members voted Corbyn 60-40.

    Whether we like it or not the parliamentary party are not reflective of their own membership?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited September 2016
    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second like Owen Who

    Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.
    I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.

    I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.

    Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
    That is something to be written on PB by Don Brind on the inside of the Smith campaign.

    Don't forget the "IT'S STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL" matra.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    From https://www.loonyparty.com/about/policy-proposals/

    "We shall keep the Falklands and Give Jeremy Corbyn to the Argentinians."

    :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    edited September 2016


    Clearly focused on winning the votes of supporters of both candidates in the Manchester Mayoral race
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    Sandpit said:

    So, where's the market on the first Labour MP to resign the whip?

    John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis the favourites?

    Frank Field must be a possibility.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice

    Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    It's clear that Corbyn is in place until he chooses to resign on falls off his perch. I'm not even sure a loss of half his MPs in the 2020 election will be enough to make him resign voluntarily, unless he can find a way in the meantime of having the membership nominate his successor!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 831
    Devastating outcome for Labour, happy news for the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems, SNP etc.

    Smith wasn't the answer for Labour but it would have removed Corbyn, allowed a change to the rules to make it easier to boot out future leaders and possibly killed off momentum by them leaving the party now that their messiah was gone.

    Now you are going to get more years if infighting and Corbyn taking the party further left and becoming less electable with each passing month.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,631
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice

    Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
    Because people lie about voting Tory (they say they won't when they do) and Labour voters (not members) say they will (vote Labour) and don't.
  • This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    Paul Waugh on Twitter:

    "@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members

    Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On other news, I missed the news that Ted Cruz has endorsed Trump, probably won't do much difference to Trump though.
  • nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second like Owen Who

    Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.
    I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.

    I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.

    Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
    He was trying to win over labour members, not the political betting commentariat. A large chunk of those joined to support Corbyn. You're not going to win them over by disagreeing with Corbyn, by and large.

    Staking out clear centrist ground might have worked if the NEC hadn't changed the registered supporters rules, because then a challenger might have aimed to bring in moderates to vote. But with the price put up and a short registration period, that strategy went out of the window.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    edited September 2016

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    8.6 the Labour majority on Betfair.

    That's the same odds as were on NOM on the morning of the last election!

    1.72 the Conservative majority looks like value.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27456523/market?marketId=1.119040708
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    edited September 2016

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,871
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice

    Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
    YouGov's average LEAVE %age for the period after postal voting started to election day was 49%.

    I believe that extensive postal voting making election polls less accurate. Most EURef postal voters would have cast ballots about June 2/3rd. So by the eve of poll a question of what postal voters did was about something that happened 3 weeks earlier adding to possibility of inaccuracy.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    What an annoying result for people on over 62.5 !
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Perfect

    Gerry Adams
    Well done Jeremy Corbyn.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    Dixie said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.
    As he's teetotal he wouldn't even make the attempt.

    That could be a metaphor for his whole leadership.
  • This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice

    Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
    YouGov's average LEAVE %age for the period after postal voting started to election day was 49%.

    I believe that extensive postal voting making election polls less accurate. Most EURef postal voters would have cast ballots about June 2/3rd. So by the eve of poll a question of what postal voters did was about something that happened 3 weeks earlier adding to possibility of inaccuracy.



    The Labour Leadership election was going on for a long time before and after the yougov poll.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,525
    edited September 2016
    Not a huge difference between the three categories, especiaslly as 50K of the registered supporters are in fact members (they were in the group of recent members excluded unless they coughed up £25).

    Lots of "let's work together" interviews running from both sides on BBC2 - I think the message has got through and the mood is clearly to try to make it work: both people who wanted a new party and people who wanted massive deselections are going against the flow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    Pulpstar said:

    What an annoying result for people on over 62.5 !

    What did you say Smith would say after he lost, was it something like "we must all come together"? Well, Seema Malhotra has just said those very words on Sky News.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    Normally I would agree with you.

    If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.

    Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
  • Oh sugar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Speedy said:

    On other news, I missed the news that Ted Cruz has endorsed Trump, probably won't do much difference to Trump though.

    No but sets Cruz up for 2020 if Trump loses
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,913
    edited September 2016
    You screw up your vote when it would have made a difference, then lose when you do get your vote in. Nae luck.

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 831

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    The result is great news for the LDs, they should aim for 15% at the next election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    May will be more worried about Diane James' UKIP at the next general election than Corbyn/McDonnell's Labour, especially as at least some concessions will likely be made in Brexit negotiations even if it does lean more towards hard Brexit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    GIN1138 said:
    He wasn't even the future once.

    Chin up Labour, in England you are still the only viable non-Tory option, you will survive. And with survival, a chance. Eventually.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849
    Has Lord Faulkner resigned yet?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,123
    AndyJS said:

    Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.

    I don’t really think so.

    Both Angela Eagle and Owen Smith were dreadful candidates.

    We now know more about Owen’s shortcomings because he spent the Summer displaying them to us. But, Angela was just as limited & dreadful.

    Corbyn could have been challenged much more effectively once he had a reasonable chance to show what he could do. Challenging after a year was another terrible mistake.

    I am pleased Corby won, because he was the better candidate, and because he deserves 2 to 3 years to show what he can do.

    The worst thing about the election was the blatant gerrymandering. The exclusion of Labour supporters after the arbitrary deadline of January 12th was just ridiculously partisan, and for that Iain MacNicol should lose his job.


  • Pulpstar said:

    What an annoying result for people on over 62.5 !

    I was on 45-50 Yes in the IndyRef. It was 44.7%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,849
    Talk that Corbyn will "wipe the slate clean".

    With his enemies' blood....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice

    Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
    They did in 2001, 2005 and 2010 and indyref reasonably well, it was only 2015 and EU ref they came unstuck but even then they had some polls giving Tory and Leave leads
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,371
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:
    Which shows how much bigger still Corbyn's majority was amonst everyone else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914
    jonny83 said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.
    I have had the few strong Labour types I know here in the Tory shires indicate that is his biggest problem. That on pacifism he doesn't live in the real world, where you need to acknowledge you might need to do these things at some point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    It's clear that Corbyn is in place until he chooses to resign on falls off his perch. I'm not even sure a loss of half his MPs in the 2020 election will be enough to make him resign voluntarily, unless he can find a way in the meantime of having the membership nominate his successor!
    Yes, he looks set to remain leader for the remainder of the Parliament
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    AndyJS said:

    Angela Eagle would have got over 40% IMO, maybe 45%.

    Her Iraq War support would have killed her, yougov showed her actually doing slightly worse than Smith
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 831
    Nobody was going to beat Corbyn, not in the political climate that the party is in right now with its trot takeover. A true blairite wanting to put the party in the centre-left ground would have probably got even less than Smith.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    ydoethur said:

    Dixie said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    I also think Labour have a chance. Corbyn's biggest weakness is that he couldn't organise a organic beer party in a right-on brewery. That will be the biggest reason for losing the 2020 election.
    As he's teetotal he wouldn't even make the attempt.



    That could be a metaphor for his whole leadership.
    Ha! Yes, He would lambast all around him saying organization is akin to having a successful drinks party in a brewery, which he is against, so, disorganization is the only,moral route!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,072
    Speedy said:

    Today's headline:

    "SMITH SAVES CORBYN."


    Yougov is annoyingly much better at Labour leadership elections than General Elections or Referendums.

    What is it about their approach which would make it better at collecting the opinions of political obsessives rather than the general public at large...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    Dixie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.
    Labour will likely get 25% regardless but they now have to look not only at the Tories in front of them but UKIP behind them too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    Not a huge difference between the three categories, especiaslly as 50K of the registered supporters are in fact members (they were in the group of recent members excluded unless they coughed up £25).

    Lots of "let's work together" interviews running from both sides on BBC2 - I think the message has got through and the mood is clearly to try to make it work: both people who wanted a new party and people who wanted massive deselections are going against the flow.

    Surely too soon to tell how things will go? In the immediate aftermath if the opponents of Corbyn were not prepared to flounce off, which obviously they were not, then they would have to say they would come together, and unless he was intending to spark continued defiance, which he doesn't need as he is control, Corbyn would say the same to avoid provoking more confrontation.

    None of which speaks as to whether it will be made to work moving forward - they said they;d work together before, then said it wasn;t working.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited September 2016
    62% Ha!

    Let the war, deselections, blood letting coming together in unity begin

    :lol:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
  • AndyJS said:

    Paul Waugh on Twitter:

    "@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members

    Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh

    Which demonstrates how much larger still was Corbyn's majority amongst everyone else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305

    HYUFD said:
    Which shows how much bigger still Corbyn's majority was amonst everyone else.
    Especially registered supporters
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.
  • OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,123

    AndyJS said:

    Paul Waugh on Twitter:

    "@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members

    Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh

    Which demonstrates how much larger still was Corbyn's majority amongst everyone else.
    So, Owen Smith didn’t even carry Wales !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,049
    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
    Not sure, I know that Cities of London & Westminster is now in the list, because Bloomsbury is proposed to be added to the constituency.
  • Dixie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.

    Lib Dems had the teachers voting for them until the coalition froze their salaries.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    jonny83 said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    His pacifist nature is fatal for him imo when it comes to a GE. People won't vote for someone who in situations which may unrealistically but not impossibly happen won't protect their loved ones.
    I have had the few strong Labour types I know here in the Tory shires indicate that is his biggest problem. That on pacifism he doesn't live in the real world, where you need to acknowledge you might need to do these things at some point.
    Everything I have seen from him in regards to foreign policy, defense and security should be a clear turn off to voters imo. In fact I don't think it's unfair to suggest that he's a dangerous individual that would make the UK a far less safer place.
  • OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.

    I presume Ken Livingstone is lined up for the media rebuttals?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,305
    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
    Who is more likely to win Basingstoke off the Tories in 2020, James' UKIP or Corbyn's Labour? That is the most worrying thing for Labour now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
    That's a bit optimistic. Let's start with Nuneaton and take it from there.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,525
    McDonnell giving a very solid performance on BBC2.
  • ydoethur said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    Normally I would agree with you.

    If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.

    Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
    What has happened is that parties were run by people who felt it was their duty to civilise the great unwashed not reflect their views.

    The great unwashed put up with it while their lives improved materially but when their living standards stagnated while the elite got ever richer they started to call bullshit.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,838
    ydoethur said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    Disagree. Corbyn is fundamentally unelectable. He does not have the right temperant to appear as a serious leader of the country. The usual platitudes of coming together are being trotted out but the fault lines are still there.

    Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
    Normally I would agree with you.

    If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.

    Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
    Things have become interesting. I am just wondering about the day I heard the news that Corbyn had got onto the ballot. I hadn't heard his name for years and was surprised that he was still around and that the left were even troubling to contest the election. If he had failed to get his papers in on time where would all his supporters be now? Would they all be signing up to the Greens or the Lib Dems? Or would there be a new party along the lines of Podemos holding its first conference?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289
    tlg86 said:

    I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.

    LOL! So there's no deselections unless the Evil Tories make us do it. Riiggghhhhtttttt!!!
  • PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
    Basingstoke is more likely to have a Democratic Unionist MP than a Labour MP
  • AndyJS said:

    This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.

    *If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.

    He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.

    It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.

    The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
    I understand that. But go back a year, and see what Conservatives and even some Labourites were saying about Corbyn's survival chances. He's not only survived, he's come out stronger.

    I can hardly believe I'm saying this: but his survival instincts deserve respects. Perhaps the Conservatives should stop treating him as an unelectable joke and as someone who is a gritty campaigner who might be able to get a surprise.

    May's start hasn't exactly bee sure-footed, and she has the perils of Brexit to deal with, yet alone the unknown unknowns. The Conservatives should not be complacent, at least IMO.
  • OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.

    Probably a lord
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    McDonnell giving a very solid performance on BBC2.

    The pair of them should be floating along on a sea of confidence right now. Well done them if they can avoid smugness.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.

    I presume Ken Livingstone is lined up for the media rebuttals?
    Galloway rumoured to be back in the fold too now
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,267
    So sad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 37,914

    OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.

    Probably a lord
    Probably. Not as much fun when they do it, to be honest.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2016
    Corbyn's re-election is a tragedy for the Labour Party and for Britain.

    I think my wife got it spot on this morning when she said,"this is the birth of a British Nazi Party". When you think of it, with increasing anti-semitism, an extra parliamentary group of street protestors and possibly fighters in Momentum, supporting The Leader, and a policy to make the UK feeble - but only while the Tories govern the country.

    The National Socialist German Workers Party also started as a labour movement. Look how that turned out
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,259
    edited September 2016

    Dixie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirms Labour have still plenty to learn from the Tories on ruthlessness and an appetite for power. This is the equivalent of the Tory membership re-electing IDS with an increased majority in 2002 rather than Tory MPs replacing him with Michael Howard. Though in some senses significantly worse. Though like the Tories then the only plausible alternative for Labour is the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, nobody else has a real chance before 2020 and even that would likely depend on Corbyn stepping down eg it would need abysmal results eg if Labour falls behind UKIP in the County Council elections next year and their poll rating moves closer to 25% than 30%

    Although Labour are a broad church and locally have Union backing and civil servant backing. The literatti are all left leaning and every quango. You need to get them below 15% to kill them. Libs got screwed because they don't have unions nor litteratir nor quangos and civil servant backing.

    Lib Dems had the teachers voting for them until the coalition froze their salaries.
    Teachers voted Tory in 2010.

    We naively believed Gove would finally hammer the DFES and set us free to teach.

    Unfortunately, we underestimated his ambition, his lack of character and his arrogance.

    We all make mistakes.

    In fairness, however, that was a minor cock-up compared to what Labour, twice, and the Republicans have done in the last thirteen months.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    HYUFD said:
    Hahahahaha....in your dreams boyo.......
  • HYUFD said:
    Now is the time to Unite the party, in the Len McCluskey sense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,289

    OOH

    Stephen Pollard ‏@stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
    I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.

    "MP" is only a small subset of "Parliamentarian", unfortunately.
    Most likely a Lord, or an MEP or some 'list' member of Eu/Scot/Wales parliaments, who'll just be replaced by another lab member.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,984
    tlg86 said:

    I've switched over to the football, but I briefly heard McDonnell saying that there will be no compulsory reselections but if the horrible Tories force through the unfair boundary changes then there's nothing he and Jezza can do about it.

    Such a shame that would be for MCDonnell.
  • You screw up your vote when it would have made a difference, then lose when you do get your vote in. Nae luck.

    Anticipating the oncoming leadership challenge from the charismatic Alex Rowley and much loved Anas Sarwar, no doubt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,788
    edited September 2016
    WTF, Owen Thingy won with under 25s....I thought most Corbynistas were old Trots and naive idealistic youngsters?
  • William_H said:

    nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second like Owen Who

    Owen the one who got 200k votes and still lost badly.
    I'd be interested to read the inside story of his campaign.

    I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.

    Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
    He was trying to win over labour members, not the political betting commentariat. A large chunk of those joined to support Corbyn. You're not going to win them over by disagreeing with Corbyn, by and large.

    Staking out clear centrist ground might have worked if the NEC hadn't changed the registered supporters rules, because then a challenger might have aimed to bring in moderates to vote. But with the price put up and a short registration period, that strategy went out of the window.
    I know I can be old-fashioned, but I'd rather politicians stand on what they believe in and try to persuade the electorate to their views. Like or loathe him, that's what Corbyn's doing.

    It might appeal to many people who don't look to deeply into the policies.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Who've been the last 10 floor crossers?

    Quentin and Sean spring to mind
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,425
    Robert Peston: Lab MPs now face choice of becoming Trappists or setting fire to their pants, following @jeremycorbyn landslide.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,809
    HYUFD said:
    Our 200-1 bets on Ed to be next leader are still alive!
This discussion has been closed.