He's wrong, Corbyn had the best support in the North and Wales. It was London and SE where he was weakest. The Lib Dems have a huge opportunity here, but at the moment they have an anonymous leader who could be categorised in the same leftist bracket as Jez
In terms of where Corbyn Labour polls best it is London and metropolitan cities, the local and Mayoral and Scottish and Welsh elections this year proved that, regardless of where he did best with the membership
Progress have already launched an @StayInLabour Twitter campaign in an attempt to stop the moderates from giving up and walking away. You would've thought that most of the irreconcilables would've done that already, but perhaps a gradual decline in membership will become apparent in the next few months...?
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
Whilst theoretically revolted by nationalism, a lot of leftists have this curious obsession with the Scottish separatist movement. I am not quite sure why.
Theory 1. They have bought into the progressive schtick of the SNP, which has actually been very cautious in Government and has actively sought to hold on to right-of-centre voters with policies such as the council tax freeze and refusing to use its income tax powers to fund public services. Though if we are being charitable, we could contend that almost anybody who's running anything and isn't Tory (or a yellow collaborator) is worth supporting from a hard-left perspective. My enemy's enemy, and all that.
Theory 2. They hope to develop Scotland as a socialist utopia/playground that they can experiment with, and possibly escape to if it becomes apparent that the Right is going to govern in England until 2030 or beyond.
Theory 3. The Tories are Unionist, so they want to break up Britain just to spite them.
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
Whilst theoretically revolted by nationalism, a lot of leftists have this curious obsession with the Scottish separatist movement. I am not quite sure why.
Theory 1. They have bought into the progressive schtick of the SNP, which has actually been very cautious in Government and has actively sought to hold on to right-of-centre voters with policies such as the council tax freeze and refusing to use its income tax powers to fund public services. Though if we are being charitable, we could contend that almost anybody who's running anything and isn't Tory (or a yellow collaborator) is worth supporting from a hard-left perspective. My enemy's enemy, and all that.
Theory 2. They hope to develop Scotland as a socialist utopia/playground that they can experiment with, and possibly escape to if it becomes apparent that the Right is going to govern in England until 2030 or beyond.
Theory 3. The Tories are Unionist, so they want to break up Britain just to spite them.
Any other observations gratefully received.
They believe in people having self determination, and since the SNP and crowd are so loud (and currently dominant) presume the people want independence (despite voting against it once) and this progressive people should support it.
"Smith had a 55-45 lead over Corbyn among younger voters , a stark contrast with the perception that the Labour leader has won round the under-24s during his popular campaign of rallies across the country."
This is an oddity? Either wrong somehow, or the image of all the student idealists being Corbynista is incorrect.
Smith is pro-EU like younger Labour supporters. No mystery.
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
It is looking like the only way Labour stands a chance of power in rUK.... Otherwise that poster of [insert picture of current Labour leader] in the pocket of [insert picture of current SNP leader] will continue to play for subsequent general elections.
OT I see that the second series of The Bureau is now out on Amazon Prime. It's the French homeland, but slower moving and more credible than the US series. Recommended.
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
It is looking like the only way Labour stands a chance of power in rUK.... Otherwise that poster of [insert picture of current Labour leader] in the pocket of [insert picture of current SNP leader] will continue to play for subsequent general elections.
But surely Labour supporting Scottish independence would only reinforce that point, rather than refute it. Labour and the SNP both want to break up Britain, so vote Tory or LD or UKIP* *delete as appropriate.
How the Corbyn cult will rationalise defeat at the polls.
The Labour Party has now confirmed that they are not in the business of winning the next general election. What was once a party of government is now a movement whose primary purpose is to organise rallies for the adulation of Jeremy Corbyn.
@lewis_goodall: Corbynista MP:"They've lost.JC is untouchable now."expects several MPs to announce their standing down after next election #LabourLeadership
Singing bye, bye miss thirdway pie, Took the chevy to the levy but the levy was dry. Farage May and Farron sipping whiskey at the side. On the day that Labour died, The day that Labour died
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
It is looking like the only way Labour stands a chance of power in rUK.... Otherwise that poster of [insert picture of current Labour leader] in the pocket of [insert picture of current SNP leader] will continue to play for subsequent general elections.
But surely Labour supporting Scottish independence would only reinforce that point, rather than refute it. Labour and the SNP both want to break up Britain, so vote Tory or LD or UKIP* *delete as appropriate.
"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Labour Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment! We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
The Socialist Party So. Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party in Britain (again). Here’s something to think about before the General Election in 2020. https://t.co/04WrKZGS8a
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
It is looking like the only way Labour stands a chance of power in rUK.... Otherwise that poster of [insert picture of current Labour leader] in the pocket of [insert picture of current SNP leader] will continue to play for subsequent general elections.
But surely Labour supporting Scottish independence would only reinforce that point, rather than refute it. Labour and the SNP both want to break up Britain, so vote Tory or LD or UKIP* *delete as appropriate.
I didn't say they weren't f*cked all ways round!
In retrospect it was so kind of the Tories to not ban poppers...
The Socialist Party So. Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party in Britain (again). Here’s something to think about before the General Election in 2020. https://t.co/04WrKZGS8a
Yes of course, there's no difference between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, why didn't I see it before? Thank you The Socialist Party, although I'm afraid I only support the CPGB-ML.
Yougov have now correctly predicted every Tory and Labour leader winning the membership vote since 2001 and got the margin close too, IDS, Cameron, Ed Miliband and Corbyn twice
Why the heck can't they predict proper elections with such accuracy ?
Presumably because Yougov's panel, like the membership of political parties, is more politically-engaged than the electorate as a whole.
This is an interesting article How The Labour Coup Failed
The inside story of how a dominant Jeremy Corbyn saw off a poorly timed and poorly executed leadership challenge – and how Owen Smith struggled to get his campaign off the ground.
This might be somewhat controversial, but I think the chance of Corbyn as PM in 2020 are higher than I suspected. He and his supporters have shown themselves to be stronger, grittier and more consistent than their opponents within the party.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
The electoral facts haven't changed. Labour need to win seats in places like Basildon, Crawley, Swindon, Milton Keynes, Reading, Northampton, Watford, etc. in order to win an election. The only Labour leader to win those places since 1974 was Tony Blair.
Isn't Basingstoke the seat Labour needs now to win? I saw some polling nerd suggest this the other day.
Basingstoke is more likely to have a Democratic Unionist MP than a Labour MP
Thought Hunter was UUP not DUP? Haven't checked though
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
I am beginning to think that Trump will win. However if he tries for re-election the US will have come to it’s senses and he’ll go down to a crushing defeat.
Singing bye, bye miss thirdway pie, Took the chevy to the levy but the levy was dry. Farage May and Farron sipping whiskey at the side. On the day that Labour died, The day that Labour died
or as the Lib Dems sing "Tony Blair can fuc* off and die".
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
The Socialist Party So. Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party in Britain (again). Here’s something to think about before the General Election in 2020. https://t.co/04WrKZGS8a
Yes of course, there's no difference between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, why didn't I see it before? Thank you The Socialist Party, although I'm afraid I only support the CPGB-ML.
I wonder who the Socialist Party have in mind as a ‘true socialist’ or if one has ever existed.
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
They have, at least, been attempting to reduce it.
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
I am beginning to think that Trump will win. However if he tries for re-election the US will have come to it’s senses and he’ll go down to a crushing defeat.
I think you are almost certainly right on the latter. You may be right on the former. It is hard to tell because I don't think anyone has any idea of what the electorate will turn out to be on the night. If it is a near-traditional electorate, then polls showing Hillary 6-8% clear will probably be right. If the traditional electorate vote share is down (as traditional voters dislike both candidates intensely) and there is a large non-voter turnout, then it could easily be Trump's by a significant margin.
For me as a libertarian, my calculus is as follows:
Economy: Depends on what Trump really believes rather than his current anti-trade ranting. Hillary will be bad through labor-relations and government spending. Wash
Foreign relations and defence: No matter how bad Hillary is, this is clear. Advantage Hillary. At least she won't start a world war. (Trump in all likelihood would not, but just the fact that we even consider he might loses him this parameter)
Social policy: If you focus on social policy towards American citizens, I suspect Trump is middle of the road when not being bombastic on the trail. Hillary is into damaging identity politics, but that won't matter with co-habitation (with at least one of the House or the Senate staying in GOP hands). A wash.
Supreme Court: For me, labor relations are the biggest issue. The gay, pot and abortion debate has been won by the liberals, and as a libertarian, I am glad of that. Hillary's appointees are likely to be Labor-friendly. Advantage Trump.
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
Singing bye, bye miss thirdway pie, Took the chevy to the levy but the levy was dry. Farage May and Farron sipping whiskey at the side. On the day that Labour died, The day that Labour died
or as the Lib Dems sing "Tony Blair can fuc* off and die".
Which is nothing compared to the songs the LibDems sing against themselves. The press reports of their recent singsong didn't really scratch the surface of the LibDems' sense of humour, which is the key to their resilience
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
wow. this just won't die.
On the economy the Tories do, however, now have a massive challenge. After six years of preaching austerity and 'long term economic plan', the deficit has been reduced by only half (hence our debt continues to rise), austerity as a solution is looking increasingly discredited around the world, and of course the risks of Brexit demand a much more pro-intervention pro-investment stance than the Tories have previously considered. The coming Autumn Statement will be a real test for Hammond.
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
The last of the old time Holywood aristocracy speaks out (cue PB squeals of luvvy).
'The Road Ahead I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children. All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make. My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.” As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
Seize the moment, while the Opposition is enfeebled.
To state the obvious, the biggest danger for the Tories now is complacency. Three and a half years is a long time in politics not to make any self-inflicted mistakes. Maybe today's result will encourage Theresa May to call an early election precisely in order to avoid that possibility.
I am beginning to think that Trump will win. However if he tries for re-election the US will have come to it’s senses and he’ll go down to a crushing defeat.
I think you are almost certainly right on the latter. You may be right on the former. It is hard to tell because I don't think anyone has any idea of what the electorate will turn out to be on the night. If it is a near-traditional electorate, then polls showing Hillary 6-8% clear will probably be right. If the traditional electorate vote share is down (as traditional voters dislike both candidates intensely) and there is a large non-voter turnout, then it could easily be Trump's by a significant margin.
For me as a libertarian, my calculus is as follows:
Economy: Depends on what Trump really believes rather than his current anti-trade ranting. Hillary will be bad through labor-relations and government spending. Wash
Foreign relations and defence: No matter how bad Hillary is, this is clear. Advantage Hillary. At least she won't start a world war. (Trump in all likelihood would not, but just the fact that we even consider he might loses him this parameter)
Social policy: If you focus on social policy towards American citizens, I suspect Trump is middle of the road when not being bombastic on the trail. Hillary is into damaging identity politics, but that won't matter with co-habitation (with at least one of the House or the Senate staying in GOP hands). A wash.
Supreme Court: For me, labor relations are the biggest issue. The gay, pot and abortion debate has been won by the liberals, and as a libertarian, I am glad of that. Hillary's appointees are likely to be Labor-friendly. Advantage Trump.
Overall choice: none of the above.
You know more about the US than I do, and as an interested (concerned) observer I’m grateful for the comments. I wonder how much the debates will matter. If at some point Trump loses his cool then he could crash. And I suspect if he gets the wrong supplementary question then I think (hope?) he might. I don’t think HRC will, but she could come over as somewhat of a harridan.
Been working like a biatch for the last week and coming to the end of it now, so not been reading PB. Bad me. Tried to catch up, but there are far too many so have probably missed lots. Those I did catch
@Alistair Thanks 4 the link @Paul_Bedfordshire I'm not convinced that your remarks did not reflect your inner soul, but having said that your post was unusually thoughtful, thank you @rcs1000 , @Charles . It's an entirely different world... @Essexit : I was interested to hear of your activities as a LEAVE coordinator, and I would be interested i talking to you about it at some point. @Black_Rook. I liked your posts and you made two very good ones, but you do intersperse it with slurs ("Remoaners" etc) that made them more difficult than they needed to be. As for your contention that the people are (mostly) right, I disagree: politics is for things that cannot objectively be weighed and democracy isn't about seeking the "best" option, it's about seeking the consent of the governed. One need not defend the rightness of the choice to defend the ability to choose, and people have the right to be wrong.
Apologies to everybody I missed. You may now carry on...
You know more about the US than I do, and as an interested (concerned) observer I’m grateful for the comments. I wonder how much the debates will matter. If at some point Trump loses his cool then he could crash. And I suspect if he gets the wrong supplementary question then I think (hope?) he might. I don’t think HRC will, but she could come over as somewhat of a harridan.
Neither are good debaters. Trump is a good performer - to the converted. Hillary is not even that.
To me, who will be the 'winner of the debates'* will come down to the mood of the nation. Does the nation want policy fixes to what ails it and someone who is good at policy, or is the nation venting its frustration and lashing out? Clearly, the former favours Hillary, although her policy solutions will only appeal to a plurality at best: and the latter favour Trump by a large margin.
The problem again is that there is no monolithic nation, and both currents are clearly present. My gut is that this is more an emotional rather than a rational election, so advantage Trump. But as we have seen with recent polls, he needs things to go fully his way to draw even with Hillary in the polls. So it all boils down to whether the polls are accurately capturing the likely electorate.
I doubt I will be calling this election at any point until some actual results are in.
** As we saw with Trump in the primaries, we have to be very careful about accepting the pundits' judgment on debate winners.
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
I think it would be a tough sell to Tories and many non-Tories for that to be the excuse for not carrying out the results of a referendum as promised. Apart from anything else, why would the official opposition not be marxist if we did not Brexit? What else should we not do because the opposition is marxist? (assuming it is, which I don';t think it is)
Brexit will provide the conditions under which they stand a chance of winning.
The map of which areas voted strongly for Brexit in England is very interesting in this regard, and certainly surprised me.
The Midlands voted almost 60-40 for Brexit. This is one reason why the PLP were so very wrong in seeking to depose Corbyn for not opposing Brexit strongly enough.
But it means that, provided the government achieve a Brexit deal that genuinely restricts immigration they will be home and dry at the next general election. Think of the novelty for the English electorate of having their politicians do what they voted for. It could be a landslide of National Government proportions.
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
I think it would be a tough sell to Tories and many non-Tories for that to be the excuse for not carrying out the results of a referendum as promised. Apart from anything else, why would the official opposition not be marxist if we did not Brexit? What else should we not do because the opposition is marxist? (assuming it is, which I don';t think it is)
Brexit will provide the conditions under which they stand a chance of winning.
The map of which areas voted strongly for Brexit in England is very interesting in this regard, and certainly surprised me.
The Midlands voted almost 60-40 for Brexit. This is one reason why the PLP were so very wrong in seeking to depose Corbyn for not opposing Brexit strongly enough.
But it means that, provided the government achieve a Brexit deal that genuinely restricts immigration they will be home and dry at the next general election. Think of the novelty for the English electorate of having their politicians do what they voted for. It could be a landslide of National Government proportions.
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
wow. this just won't die.
On the economy the Tories do, however, now have a massive challenge. After six years of preaching austerity and 'long term economic plan', the deficit has been reduced by only half (hence our debt continues to rise), austerity as a solution is looking increasingly discredited around the world, and of course the risks of Brexit demand a much more pro-intervention pro-investment stance than the Tories have previously considered. The coming Autumn Statement will be a real test for Hammond.
Yeah, you can see why it won't die.
Banging on about the debt, when the government has brought the deficit down from nearly 11 % to something close to 4, is *not* *ever* going to reflect badly on the government of 2010 to 2015. Ever.
It's a dead horse. An ex-argument. The debate has left the building.
Now that the official opposition is officially Marxist for the foreseeable future, is this really the time for a responsible government to put a bomb under the economy by pressing ahead with Brexit?
I think it would be a tough sell to Tories and many non-Tories for that to be the excuse for not carrying out the results of a referendum as promised. Apart from anything else, why would the official opposition not be marxist if we did not Brexit? What else should we not do because the opposition is marxist? (assuming it is, which I don';t think it is)
Brexit will provide the conditions under which they stand a chance of winning.
The map of which areas voted strongly for Brexit in England is very interesting in this regard, and certainly surprised me.
The Midlands voted almost 60-40 for Brexit. This is one reason why the PLP were so very wrong in seeking to depose Corbyn for not opposing Brexit strongly enough.
But it means that, provided the government achieve a Brexit deal that genuinely restricts immigration they will be home and dry at the next general election. Think of the novelty for the English electorate of having their politicians do what they voted for. It could be a landslide of National Government proportions.
The Henry Classification System is a long-standing method by which fingerprints are sorted by physiological characteristics for one-to-many searching. Developed by Hem Chandra Bose and Azizul Haque and Sir Edward Henry in the late 19th century for criminal investigations in British India, it was the basis of modern-day AFIS (Automated Fingerprint Identification System) classification methods up until the 1990s. In recent years, the Henry Classification System has generally been replaced by ridge flow classification approaches...
Although fingerprint characteristics were studied as far back as the mid-1600s, the use of fingerprints as a means of identification did not occur until the mid-19th century. In roughly 1859, Sir William James Herschel discovered that fingerprints remain stable over time and are unique across individuals; as Chief Magistrate of the Hooghly district in Jungipoor, India, in 1877 he was the first to institute the use of fingerprints and handprints as a means of identification, signing legal documents, and authenticating transactions. The fingerprint records collected at this time were used for one-to-one verification only; as a means in which records would be logically filed and searched had not yet been invented.
Labour's demise was all but inevitable when, as predicted, it showed it had no idea how to manage public finances in an era when there is no money to chase an ever-bigger public sector. Labour under Miliband/Balls just mumbled about it under their breath. They couldn't wean themselves off the teat.
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
wow. this just won't die.
On the economy the Tories do, however, now have a massive challenge. After six years of preaching austerity and 'long term economic plan', the deficit has been reduced by only half (hence our debt continues to rise), austerity as a solution is looking increasingly discredited around the world, and of course the risks of Brexit demand a much more pro-intervention pro-investment stance than the Tories have previously considered. The coming Autumn Statement will be a real test for Hammond.
Yeah, you can see why it won't die.
Banging on about the debt, when the government has brought the deficit down from nearly 11 % to something close to 4, is *not* *ever* going to reflect badly on the government of 2010 to 2015. Ever.
It's a dead horse. An ex-argument. The debate has left the building.
Also, as the economy grows, so can national debt. To keep debt at the same ratio to GDP, debt can grow at (GDP growth*national debt)/GDP
If the UK growth is 2%, and debt to GDP is 90%, we can run a 1.8% deficit without increasing debt to GDP ratio.
"Donald Trump's campaign is expected to drop an estimated $140 million on ads through Election Day, AP reported late Friday.
The buy would include $100 million in television airtime and $40 million in digital ads, according to senior communications adviser Jason Miller.
The Republican nominee's team will devote $60 million of the TV ads to local markets, including Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico and Wisconsin. The remaining $40 million of TV funding will go toward national commercials.
Because make no mistake: even at a time of low strike figures and underlying low confidence among workers, there are plenty of struggles Labour can mobilise behind, help win, and help make the beginning of a wider movement. From newly unionised fast food workers and cleaners to growing housing struggles in working-class communities, from the Picturehouse cinema workers striking for the Living Wage to the junior doctors, the Labour Party needs to organise and act to justify its name. There is a new workers’ movement waiting to be born.
"Most Labour “moderates” must have expected a crushing Corbyn victory, but this result will surely have left many feeling bewildered. As a campaigner for Corbyn, let me explain what I think is happening and offer some advice. "
All I have read from the moderates indicates that they did not expect a crushing victory for Owen Smith. This "Sacha Ismail a campaigner in Momentum's Lewisham branch" comes across as a little unbalanced in their grasp of Labour matters. Not that I mind about that.
Apparently, Owen Smith won the 18-24 year old's. I wouldn't have thought that. Also Scotland decisively and nearly London. All counter-intuitive except perhaps Scotland.
Corbyn is recording worse ratings than Mrs May in Scotland.
You know more about the US than I do, and as an interested (concerned) observer I’m grateful for the comments. I wonder how much the debates will matter. If at some point Trump loses his cool then he could crash. And I suspect if he gets the wrong supplementary question then I think (hope?) he might. I don’t think HRC will, but she could come over as somewhat of a harridan.
Neither are good debaters. Trump is a good performer - to the converted. Hillary is not even that.
To me, who will be the 'winner of the debates'* will come down to the mood of the nation. Does the nation want policy fixes to what ails it and someone who is good at policy, or is the nation venting its frustration and lashing out? Clearly, the former favours Hillary, although her policy solutions will only appeal to a plurality at best: and the latter favour Trump by a large margin.
The problem again is that there is no monolithic nation, and both currents are clearly present. My gut is that this is more an emotional rather than a rational election, so advantage Trump. But as we have seen with recent polls, he needs things to go fully his way to draw even with Hillary in the polls. So it all boils down to whether the polls are accurately capturing the likely electorate.
I doubt I will be calling this election at any point until some actual results are in.
** As we saw with Trump in the primaries, we have to be very careful about accepting the pundits' judgment on debate winners.
Comments
Sky Data
.@election_data @YouGov Lab l'ship exit poll
Members who joined:
Pre May 2015
Smith 63%
Corbyn 37%
Since JC elected
Corbyn 83%
Smith 15%
I can't believe he was able to get away with it as long as he did, from his council flat.
Paul Mason, journalist turned Labour activist, has just said he wants Scottish Labour to back independence.
Theory 1. They have bought into the progressive schtick of the SNP, which has actually been very cautious in Government and has actively sought to hold on to right-of-centre voters with policies such as the council tax freeze and refusing to use its income tax powers to fund public services. Though if we are being charitable, we could contend that almost anybody who's running anything and isn't Tory (or a yellow collaborator) is worth supporting from a hard-left perspective. My enemy's enemy, and all that.
Theory 2. They hope to develop Scotland as a socialist utopia/playground that they can experiment with, and possibly escape to if it becomes apparent that the Right is going to govern in England until 2030 or beyond.
Theory 3. The Tories are Unionist, so they want to break up Britain just to spite them.
Any other observations gratefully received.
Edit/ so in a sense he is with the zeitgeist, moving away from his traditional loyalties in a faster-shifting uncertain world
*delete as appropriate.
The Labour Party has now confirmed that they are not in the business of winning the next general election. What was once a party of government is now a movement whose primary purpose is to organise rallies for the adulation of Jeremy Corbyn.
http://andy-mcsmith.tumblr.com/post/150860539132/how-the-corbyn-cult-will-rationalise-defeat-at-the
@NeilFindlay_MSP: @AidanKerrPol I think I need to have a pint with Mr Mason to advise him he's talking bollocks
Took the chevy to the levy but the levy was dry.
Farage May and Farron sipping whiskey at the side.
On the day that Labour died,
The day that Labour died
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Labour Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment! We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
'The Road Ahead
I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change.
...I have lived a long, good life. I will not be here to see the consequences if this evil takes root in our country. But your children and mine will be. And their children. And their children’s children.
All of us still yearn to remain free. It is what we stand for as a country. I have always been deeply proud to be an American. In the time I have left, I pray that will never change. In our democracy, the decision to remain free is ours to make.
My 100th birthday is exactly one month and one day after the next presidential election. I’d like to celebrate it by blowing out the candles on my cake, then whistling “Happy Days Are Here Again.”
As my beloved friend Lauren Bacall once said, “You know how to whistle don’t you? You just put your lips together and blow.”'
http://tinyurl.com/jfyye5k
The Socialist Party
So. Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of the Labour Party in Britain (again). Here’s something to think about before the General Election in 2020. https://t.co/04WrKZGS8a
Labour under Corbyn is just pretending there is no issue - the Socialist Free Money Tree is promising a bough-breaking crop under their husbandry. It is an idiotic posture, has worked nowhere in the world, and will leave the voters pointing and laughing come the next election.
How The Labour Coup Failed
The inside story of how a dominant Jeremy Corbyn saw off a poorly timed and poorly executed leadership challenge – and how Owen Smith struggled to get his campaign off the ground.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-corbyn-supremacy?utm_term=.juEWyQ5pw
https://twitter.com/_katedevlin/status/779638486727098368
https://twitter.com/_katedevlin/status/779642274770739201
The current level of Republican support for Trump is nearly identical to the 86% of Democrats who back Clinton https://t.co/1A8AH1dalq
No paywall
Over the last six years there has been a Conservative money tree, as the Tories have borrowed like there's no tomorrow
They have, at least, been attempting to reduce it.
Shocking stuff, down with that sort of thing.
For me as a libertarian, my calculus is as follows:
Economy: Depends on what Trump really believes rather than his current anti-trade ranting. Hillary will be bad through labor-relations and government spending. Wash
Foreign relations and defence: No matter how bad Hillary is, this is clear. Advantage Hillary. At least she won't start a world war. (Trump in all likelihood would not, but just the fact that we even consider he might loses him this parameter)
Social policy: If you focus on social policy towards American citizens, I suspect Trump is middle of the road when not being bombastic on the trail. Hillary is into damaging identity politics, but that won't matter with co-habitation (with at least one of the House or the Senate staying in GOP hands). A wash.
Supreme Court: For me, labor relations are the biggest issue. The gay, pot and abortion debate has been won by the liberals, and as a libertarian, I am glad of that. Hillary's appointees are likely to be Labor-friendly. Advantage Trump.
Overall choice: none of the above.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0
I don’t think HRC will, but she could come over as somewhat of a harridan.
It's rather odd.
@Alistair Thanks 4 the link
@Paul_Bedfordshire I'm not convinced that your remarks did not reflect your inner soul, but having said that your post was unusually thoughtful, thank you
@rcs1000 , @Charles . It's an entirely different world...
@Essexit : I was interested to hear of your activities as a LEAVE coordinator, and I would be interested i talking to you about it at some point.
@Black_Rook. I liked your posts and you made two very good ones, but you do intersperse it with slurs ("Remoaners" etc) that made them more difficult than they needed to be. As for your contention that the people are (mostly) right, I disagree: politics is for things that cannot objectively be weighed and democracy isn't about seeking the "best" option, it's about seeking the consent of the governed. One need not defend the rightness of the choice to defend the ability to choose, and people have the right to be wrong.
Apologies to everybody I missed. You may now carry on...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-37454255?SThisFB
To me, who will be the 'winner of the debates'* will come down to the mood of the nation. Does the nation want policy fixes to what ails it and someone who is good at policy, or is the nation venting its frustration and lashing out? Clearly, the former favours Hillary, although her policy solutions will only appeal to a plurality at best: and the latter favour Trump by a large margin.
The problem again is that there is no monolithic nation, and both currents are clearly present. My gut is that this is more an emotional rather than a rational election, so advantage Trump. But as we have seen with recent polls, he needs things to go fully his way to draw even with Hillary in the polls. So it all boils down to whether the polls are accurately capturing the likely electorate.
I doubt I will be calling this election at any point until some actual results are in.
** As we saw with Trump in the primaries, we have to be very careful about accepting the pundits' judgment on debate winners.
The Midlands voted almost 60-40 for Brexit. This is one reason why the PLP were so very wrong in seeking to depose Corbyn for not opposing Brexit strongly enough.
But it means that, provided the government achieve a Brexit deal that genuinely restricts immigration they will be home and dry at the next general election. Think of the novelty for the English electorate of having their politicians do what they voted for. It could be a landslide of National Government proportions.
Banging on about the debt, when the government has brought the deficit down from nearly 11 % to something close to 4, is *not* *ever* going to reflect badly on the government of 2010 to 2015. Ever.
It's a dead horse. An ex-argument. The debate has left the building.
Don't forget, Churchill loved to paint, too. Might need to chose some other proxy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Classification_System
The Henry Classification System is a long-standing method by which fingerprints are sorted by physiological characteristics for one-to-many searching. Developed by Hem Chandra Bose and Azizul Haque and Sir Edward Henry in the late 19th century for criminal investigations in British India, it was the basis of modern-day AFIS (Automated Fingerprint Identification System) classification methods up until the 1990s. In recent years, the Henry Classification System has generally been replaced by ridge flow classification approaches...
Although fingerprint characteristics were studied as far back as the mid-1600s, the use of fingerprints as a means of identification did not occur until the mid-19th century. In roughly 1859, Sir William James Herschel discovered that fingerprints remain stable over time and are unique across individuals; as Chief Magistrate of the Hooghly district in Jungipoor, India, in 1877 he was the first to institute the use of fingerprints and handprints as a means of identification, signing legal documents, and authenticating transactions. The fingerprint records collected at this time were used for one-to-one verification only; as a means in which records would be logically filed and searched had not yet been invented.
If the UK growth is 2%, and debt to GDP is 90%, we can run a 1.8% deficit without increasing debt to GDP ratio.
All counter-intuitive except perhaps Scotland.
Michael Deacon
What would George Orwell make of Jeremy Corbyn? https://t.co/bLr75V1DVn https://t.co/hdev5StzyC
The buy would include $100 million in television airtime and $40 million in digital ads, according to senior communications adviser Jason Miller.
The Republican nominee's team will devote $60 million of the TV ads to local markets, including Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico and Wisconsin. The remaining $40 million of TV funding will go toward national commercials.
Trump threw down $15 million on Friday alone...
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-goes-big-with-expected-140-million-ad-buy/article/2602764?custom_click=rss
Because make no mistake: even at a time of low strike figures and underlying low confidence among workers, there are plenty of struggles Labour can mobilise behind, help win, and help make the beginning of a wider movement. From newly unionised fast food workers and cleaners to growing housing struggles in working-class communities, from the Picturehouse cinema workers striking for the Living Wage to the junior doctors, the Labour Party needs to organise and act to justify its name. There is a new workers’ movement waiting to be born.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/as-a-member-of-momentum-let-me-explain-what-all-you-blairites-ha/
All I have read from the moderates indicates that they did not expect a crushing victory for Owen Smith. This "Sacha Ismail a campaigner in Momentum's Lewisham branch" comes across as a little unbalanced in their grasp of Labour matters. Not that I mind about that.