It is just plain madness to have a Parliamentary democracy where a leader doesn't command the support of his MP's.
For Labour to continue it must change it's leader or MP's....as the first strategy has failed, the logical conclusion is to change the MP's.
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
I just can't see how Trump can become more popular and less toxic than Hillary, even at the best circumstances (with Terrorism and Riots) he can't break even, and I can't see him winning the debate.
Why do you think he won't win the first TV debate? He's highly skilled at working an audience and at television. And "circumstances" could be a lot better for him than they are now.
I just can't see how Trump can become more popular and less toxic than Hillary, even at the best circumstances (with Terrorism and Riots) he can't break even, and I can't see him winning the debate.
Why do you think he won't win the first TV debate? He's highly skilled at working an audience and at television. And "circumstances" could be a lot better for him than they are now.
He did reasonably in the Republican debates, while that is not Hillary's strong suit.
Thes close to Nov 8th though some of Trump's more exhuberent comments may not go down so well.
Looks like Isis are really getting involved in the Presidential race.
FBI: 'No Indication' That Washington State Mall Shooting Was 'Terrorist Act'
They say they are looking for a Hispanic man.
And much of the media are saying including in their headlines that a Hispanic man is being sought. If he's from Washington state, that narrows it down to 13% of the male population.
Anyway since the Labour party is now largely irrelevant, we should simply invest the full responsibilities of Her Majesty''s Opposition to George Osborne because as far as I can see George Osborne is the only obstacle stopping this Government doing what the hell it wants.
It is just plain madness to have a Parliamentary democracy where a leader doesn't command the support of his MP's.
For Labour to continue it must change it's leader or MP's....as the first strategy has failed, the logical conclusion is to change the MP's.
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
Corbyn's calls for unity were as hollow as they sounded. His henchmen will finish the job they started. Labour are finished as as serious party.. LD's will be the beneficiaries.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
A good benchmark. If we move to 600 seats then a 7.7% drop brings a new benchmark for Labour of 193 seats as a level equivalent with Foot.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
I just can't see how Trump can become more popular and less toxic than Hillary, even at the best circumstances (with Terrorism and Riots) he can't break even, and I can't see him winning the debate.
Why do you think he won't win the first TV debate? He's highly skilled at working an audience and at television. And "circumstances" could be a lot better for him than they are now.
He did reasonably in the Republican debates, while that is not Hillary's strong suit.
Thes close to Nov 8th though some of Trump's more exhuberent comments may not go down so well.
He practically "owned" the Republican debates - quite an achievement for someone who wasn't previously a politician and has no record of public service - but that wasn't what I meant. Much of the audience for the presidential debates will know him through his appearances on talk shows, the wrestling, and "reality" TV. That is where Trump's personal brand has been built, as far as many people are concerned. He can change policy aspects of his presentation and has done so. He has probably got more scope for making such changes than Clinton has. I doubt he will balls it up or say stuff that falls flat and that Clinton can use to knock him out with.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
A good benchmark. If we move to 600 seats then a 7.7% drop brings a new benchmark for Labour of 193 seats as a level equivalent with Foot.
Indeed, though Corbyn might have a better chance of beating 193 seats than 209, even with the boundary changes
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
It is just plain madness to have a Parliamentary democracy where a leader doesn't command the support of his MP's.
For Labour to continue it must change it's leader or MP's....as the first strategy has failed, the logical conclusion is to change the MP's.
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
Corbyn's calls for unity were as hollow as they sounded. His henchmen will finish the job they started. Labour are finished as as serious party.. LD's will be the beneficiaries.
Mrs May has not yet started her work.. I suspect at some time in the next two years she's likely to drive Tory supporters to despair... (or the Brexit trio will as they are all incontinent incompetents)
@rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.
'How to leave Labour' becomes most searched for party-related question on Google - Indie
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
@rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.
'How to leave Labour' becomes most searched for party-related question on Google - Indie
It is just plain madness to have a Parliamentary democracy where a leader doesn't command the support of his MP's.
For Labour to continue it must change it's leader or MP's....as the first strategy has failed, the logical conclusion is to change the MP's.
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
Corbyn's calls for unity were as hollow as they sounded. His henchmen will finish the job they started. Labour are finished as as serious party.. LD's will be the beneficiaries.
Mrs May has not yet started her work.. I suspect at some time in the next two years she's likely to drive Tory supporters to despair... (or the Brexit trio will as they are all incontinent incompetents)
Perhaps but on present trends and given the hapless state of Labour she will be PM until 2025, making her the third longest serving postwar PM after Thatcher and Blair
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
True but my guess is May will be far more concerned about Diane James in terms of the 2020 general election than she is about Corbyn or Farron
Mrs May can invoke Article 50 in March and go into the local election campaign of 2017 on a wave to gain seats from Labour and UKIP. It will also restrict the ability of LDs to gain hundreds at a time that they need to be making progress. Possibly keep LD gains to under 100 and also put pressure on Farron.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
@rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.
'How to leave Labour' becomes most searched for party-related question on Google - Indie
cowardly rats leave the sinking ship
Why would you stay aboard?
When I left Labour in the early noughties, after a decade of membership, it took a few years and a house move for them to stop sending me mail as if I were still a member. It isn't as easy to leave as it sounds!
@rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.
'How to leave Labour' becomes most searched for party-related question on Google - Indie
cowardly rats leave the sinking ship
Why would you stay aboard?
When I left Labour in the early noughties, after a decade of membership, it took a few years and a house move for them to stop sending me mail as if I were still a member. It isn't as easy to leave as it sounds!
I believe posting about the Foo Fighters will do the trick nowadays.
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
I think that there will be few if any defections at this point in the electoral cycle.
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
Below 209 is easy if there are only 600 seats
And if the SNP still dominates Scotland.
good point - Corbyn could be closer to 150 under new boundaries.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
Below 209 is easy if there are only 600 seats
And if the SNP still dominates Scotland.
good point - Corbyn could be closer to 150 under new boundaries.
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
True but my guess is May will be far more concerned about Diane James in terms of the 2020 general election than she is about Corbyn or Farron
Mrs May can invoke Article 50 in March and go into the local election campaign of 2017 on a wave to gain seats from Labour and UKIP. It will also restrict the ability of LDs to gain hundreds at a time that they need to be making progress. Possibly keep LD gains to under 100 and also put pressure on Farron.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls show the Tories up since the general election, Labour often down and the LDs and UKIP unchanged. The 2013 elections were also held at a time when Labour often led in opinion polls. Local government by-elections predict very little about the national stage other than the LDs are making a small recovery in their local government heartlands and only a minority of them have been in County Councils which are the main Council areas up next year anyway. As the local elections will follow just a month or two after Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard to put the pressure on May and in Diane James they now have a better leader than both Corbyn and Farron. They already have more councillors than Labour in many Counties
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
They wanted to play up Labour as party of the people while thinking the people would do exactly as they wished. They wanted to make use of the mob, without realising others can do the same.
Thinking through their actions more would not have helped, since their actions were predicated upon a key fact upon which they were mistaken - that Corbyn could not win - and unless they realised that was not true, which few considered possible, they would see no harm.
What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.
Very good point.
It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
He had a vested interest in saying so.
I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
He was nonetheless a member of Saving Labour. He was biased and his rather exuberant "too close to call" really silly !
A bit harsh. – Don’s only fault was not to 'declare an interest' when publishing his PB thread. Taking part in a Keiran Pedley podcast to promote ‘SaveLabour’ as a spokesman a couple of weeks later was by then, a little late.
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
I think that there will be few if any defections at this point in the electoral cycle.
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
There will be no defections worth talking about. This raises a serious point. The "coup" attempt was hilarious. I am not surprised since the highly incompetent Hilary Benn was involved.
The only way the rebel MPs could have won was if they did not blink. There was no strategy. They had one huge weapon and their only one. Declare themselves the PLP and carry on. But they were too interested in brand names, party assets etc. In 2/3 years a lot of those things would have resolved themselves.
The new Corbynites are a fickle lot. If their great leader was not the practical leader, they would have lost interest and gone back under the rock !
Well, the MPs won't have to worry about those matters anyway since most of them will not be candidates in 2020. After all, the candidates should have the support of the members and the Blairites voted for war in Iraq, bombing Syria and cutting welfare. They deserve it.
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
I think that there will be few if any defections at this point in the electoral cycle.
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
If you were (say) Yvette Cooper then what do you think you might do?
I would choose Corbyn's parade to catapult my own programme.
Defecting to the LDs now wouldn't be sensible. (Nothing to do with the LDs, but just as you say the cycle)
What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.
Very good point.
It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
He had a vested interest in saying so.
I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
He was nonetheless a member of Saving Labour. He was biased and his rather exuberant "too close to call" really silly !
A bit harsh. – Don’s only fault was not to 'declare an interest' when publishing his PB thread. Taking part in a Keiran Pedley podcast to promote ‘SaveLabour’ as a spokesman a couple of weeks later was by then, a little late.
Looks like Isis are really getting involved in the Presidential race.
FBI: 'No Indication' That Washington State Mall Shooting Was 'Terrorist Act'
They say they are looking for a Hispanic man.
And much of the media are saying including in their headlines that a Hispanic man is being sought. If he's from Washington state, that narrows it down to 13% of the male population.
This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.
So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be 1. London 2. Scotland 3. North 4. Wales With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
Below 209 is easy if there are only 600 seats
And if the SNP still dominates Scotland.
good point - Corbyn could be closer to 150 under new boundaries.
Why ? Labour can only lose 1 seat in Scotland.
As an equivalent position to Foot 1983 on revised 600 HoC.
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
I think that there will be few if any defections at this point in the electoral cycle.
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
There will be no defections worth talking about. This raises a serious point. The "coup" attempt was hilarious. I am not surprised since the highly incompetent Hilary Benn was involved.
The only way the rebel MPs could have won was if they did not blink. There was no strategy. They had one huge weapon and their only one. Declare themselves the PLP and carry on. But they were too interested in brand names, party assets etc. In 2/3 years a lot of those things would have resolved themselves.
The new Corbynites are a fickle lot. If their great leader was not the practical leader, they would have lost interest and gone back under the rock !
Well, the MPs won't have to worry about those matters anyway since most of them will not be candidates in 2020. After all, the candidates should have the support of the members and the Blairites voted for war in Iraq, bombing Syria and cutting welfare. They deserve it.
They didn't seem to know quite what they were dealing with, to be honest. I'm fond of the metaphor they were playing different games all along; the MPs thought they were playing chess, when they were actually playing Russian Roulette.
As popular as the show is, I'm surprised the MPs weren't paying attention to one of Cersei's maxims from Game of Thrones, namely that when playing such games you win or die, there is no middle ground.
Does anyone else think that tomorrow morning could be interesting?
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
I think that there will be few if any defections at this point in the electoral cycle.
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
There will be no defections worth talking about. This raises a serious point. The "coup" attempt was hilarious. I am not surprised since the highly incompetent Hilary Benn was involved.
The only way the rebel MPs could have won was if they did not blink. There was no strategy. They had one huge weapon and their only one. Declare themselves the PLP and carry on. But they were too interested in brand names, party assets etc. In 2/3 years a lot of those things would have resolved themselves.
The new Corbynites are a fickle lot. If their great leader was not the practical leader, they would have lost interest and gone back under the rock !
Well, the MPs won't have to worry about those matters anyway since most of them will not be candidates in 2020. After all, the candidates should have the support of the members and the Blairites voted for war in Iraq, bombing Syria and cutting welfare. They deserve it.
There has to be a break at some point. Many Labour MPs would have an indefensible position (if asked their views) at a GE, and Corbyn can't simply declare himself crap, but a broad church.
What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.
Very good point.
It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
He had a vested interest in saying so.
I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
He was nonetheless a member of Saving Labour. He was biased and his rather exuberant "too close to call" really silly !
A bit harsh. – Don’s only fault was not to 'declare an interest' when publishing his PB thread. Taking part in a Keiran Pedley podcast to promote ‘SaveLabour’ as a spokesman a couple of weeks later was by then, a little late.
Only fault = A MASSIVE fault.
And to make posts that not only were palpably untrue, but that he probably knew were untrue when he wrote them.
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls show the Tories up since the general election, Labour often down and the LDs and UKIP unchanged. The 2013 elections were also held at a time when Labour often led in opinion polls. Local government by-elections predict very little about the national stage other than the LDs are making a small recovery in their local government heartlands and only a minority of them have been in County Councils which are the main Council areas up next year anyway. As the local elections will follow just a month or two after Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard to put the pressure on May and in Diane James they now have a better leader than both Corbyn and Farron. They already have more councillors than Labour in many Counties
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls s
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
All pre the election of James and all in the 'no man's land' between the EU ref and the actual process of Brexit. Once Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard on an 'anti free movement and anti single market' ticket to put the pressure on the government. Of course my estimates still have the LDs making the most gains but unsurprising given they were often the main opposition to the Tories in rural areas pre-Coalition which make up many of the seats up next year
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls s
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
All pre the election of James and all in the 'no man's land' between the EU ref and the actual process of Brexit. Once Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard on an 'anti free movement and anti single market' ticket to put the pressure on the government. Of course my estimates still have the LDs making the most gains but unsurprising given they were often the main opposition to the Tories in rural areas pre-Coalition which make up many of the seats up next year
James is not the female messiah you seem to think she is .
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls s
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
All pre the election of James and all in the 'no man's land' between the EU ref and the actual process of Brexit. Once Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard on an 'anti free movement and anti single market' ticket to put the pressure on the government. Of course my estimates still have the LDs making the most gains but unsurprising given they were often the main opposition to the Tories in rural areas pre-Coalition which make up many of the seats up next year
Whilst the Tories have done nothing to offend (or, indeed, just nothing) on Brexit, UKIP has no purpose and will continue to decline. The question is whether this changes once the Tories take some sort of position on the sort of exit they will be going for. Right now they appear trapped between the desires of the business world and their moderate wing on the one hand, and their head bangers and fear of UKIP and leave voters on the other.
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls s
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
All pre the election of James and all in the 'no man's land' between the EU ref and the actual process of Brexit. Once Article 50 has been invoked UKIP will be campaigning hard on an 'anti free movement and anti single market' ticket to put the pressure on the government. Of course my estimates still have the LDs making the most gains but unsurprising given they were often the main opposition to the Tories in rural areas pre-Coalition which make up many of the seats up next year
James is not the female messiah you seem to think she is .
She may not be the messiah but she will certainly prove a far more effective opponent to May than Corbyn and Farron have
A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
The Conservatives will gain some seats from UKIP next May but as the last few months have shown they will lose more overall including a few to Labour and rather more to Lib Dems . They will also gain a few in Scotland , The number of seats up in total is not that large and I would estimate at this stage something like
Con minus 30 Lab minus 10 LD plus 140 UKIP minus 100
Rubbish, polls s
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10 Labour minus 100 LD +50 UKIP +40
You are entitled to your alternative view . UKIP won 147 seats in 2013 . They have already lost over 30 to defections and by election losses .They lose another 5 through reductions in number of councillors in several councils . They have already lost 5 of the 6 elected in Cornwall in 2013 and the one remaining is not defending her seat next year . Other counties tell different stories . A good proportion of Lib Dem gains in recent months have in fact ( contrary to what you say ) been in the council areas up next May , 5 in Cornwall , Suffolk this week , Dorset a couple of months ago to give a few examples ,
All pre the election of
Whilst the Tories have done nothing to offend (or, indeed, just nothing) on Brexit, UKIP has no purpose and will continue to decline. The question is whether this changes once the Tories take some sort of position on the sort of exit they will be going for. Right now they appear trapped between the desires of the business world and their moderate wing on the one hand, and their head bangers and fear of UKIP and leave voters on the other.
Of course it will change as whatever May does it will almost certainly not be enough to appease the head bangers and the hard core Leave voters, so UKIP will still have a purpose to represent them
Comments
For Labour to continue it must change it's leader or MP's....as the first strategy has failed, the logical conclusion is to change the MP's.
What the hell were Khan, Becket, et al thinking in nominating Corbyn? If they had thought through their actions to any kind of logical conclusion. They have destroyed the Labour Party.
Thes close to Nov 8th though some of Trump's more exhuberent comments may not go down so well.
Anyway since the Labour party is now largely irrelevant, we should simply invest the full responsibilities of Her Majesty''s Opposition to George Osborne because as far as I can see George Osborne is the only obstacle stopping this Government doing what the hell it wants.
https://twitter.com/PrimlyStable/status/779717584476368897
I pity them.
Con minus 30
Lab minus 10
LD plus 140
UKIP minus 100
It strikes me that it would be the appropriate time for people to leave Labour (although they should have just done so anyway as their credibility is damaged by leaving only when the result doesn't suit them)
There may be no movers at all, but if there are then it will be interesting to see who goes for the first mover thing.
(Didn't work for Angela Eagle though, but then there are limits)
Sitting as an Independent without party support would be difficult and few Labour MPs are in seats where a defection to the LDs would be viable.
For present most will sit on the backbenches, giving the same loyalty to their leader that he gave to the last Labour government.
Start firing them on Monday. The Brexit team will have them by Tuesday.
A bit of a contrast from the early 80's when to get anywhere in the CLP's you had to be
Black, Irish, Disabled, Lesbian against the Bomb !
P.S. Not to be taken seriously
Personally I expect something like
Tories +10
Labour minus 100
LD +50
UKIP +40
Thinking through their actions more would not have helped, since their actions were predicated upon a key fact upon which they were mistaken - that Corbyn could not win - and unless they realised that was not true, which few considered possible, they would see no harm.
The only way the rebel MPs could have won was if they did not blink. There was no strategy.
They had one huge weapon and their only one. Declare themselves the PLP and carry on.
But they were too interested in brand names, party assets etc. In 2/3 years a lot of those things would have resolved themselves.
The new Corbynites are a fickle lot. If their great leader was not the practical leader, they would have lost interest and gone back under the rock !
Well, the MPs won't have to worry about those matters anyway since most of them will not be candidates in 2020. After all, the candidates should have the support of the members and the Blairites voted for war in Iraq, bombing Syria and cutting welfare. They deserve it.
I would choose Corbyn's parade to catapult my own programme.
Defecting to the LDs now wouldn't be sensible. (Nothing to do with the LDs, but just as you say the cycle)
We'll see anyway.
As popular as the show is, I'm surprised the MPs weren't paying attention to one of Cersei's maxims from Game of Thrones, namely that when playing such games you win or die, there is no middle ground.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/24/just-16-tell-comres-that-lab-led-jc-likely-to-win-ge-compared-with-65-saying-tmay-led-con-will/
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