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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.
    The ignorance of political pundits about everything is laughable.

    Fixed it for you. Political pundits knowing little but still confidently able to act like they know how things will go are the only people who make political commentators like us look predictive by comparison.
  • taffys said:

    ''What did she say? I would put money on her winning a hand to hand fight with Mcdonnell.''

    That McDonnell is a person for whom politics and violence are interlinked.

    thanks.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember nonsense about 1992 when lots of articles were published explaining that the UK had been moved into a 1 party state like Japan (which was rather more of a compliment in those days) and how investors no longer needed to worry about "democratic risk". All turned out to be complete tosh of course.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and the people need a choice. It doesn't have to be Labour but they are very much in pole position and are going to be very hard to shift.

    Absolutely right, David.

    Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years: no country in Europe, North America, or Australia/New Zealand. It simply doesn't happen. (Japan or Mexico are the only near examples I can think of. And one of them isn't Western. And the other's not a developed country.)

    I think democracy tends to be naturally self balancing. The Conservatives, if left unchallenged for a period, will inevitably move right, because satisfying the base become more important than winning votes from waverers. And this leaves a space that is then filled. Whether it is filled by UKIP, the Greens, the LibDems or someone else is beside the point: it will be filled.
    "Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years:"

    the UK 1979-1993ish, 1997-2007ish? Nature may abhor a vacuum, but to create one in both those situations the single party had to implode through largely unforced errors and the correction may overshoot straight to another one party state, just the other way round.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2016
    ''They did poorly in Scotland and Wales in the locals and Khan won London against Goldsmith with a repeat of the GE2015 percentages.''

    I suppose you could say the electorate is colluding in Labour's destruction, because Corbyn is winning the 'real electorate' battles he needs to win. Very little for the moderates to throw at him there, and polling is much more easily dismissed.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.

    According to the failure in UK polls in 2015, it is not possible to really correct for an unbalanced sample.

    Having an improper input is a problem.

  • Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember nonsense about 1992 when lots of articles were published explaining that the UK had been moved into a 1 party state like Japan (which was rather more of a compliment in those days) and how investors no longer needed to worry about "democratic risk". All turned out to be complete tosh of course.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and the people need a choice. It doesn't have to be Labour but they are very much in pole position and are going to be very hard to shift.

    Absolutely right, David.

    Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years: no country in Europe, North America, or Australia/New Zealand. It simply doesn't happen. (Japan or Mexico are the only near examples I can think of. And one of them isn't Western. And the other's not a developed country.)

    I think democracy tends to be naturally self balancing. The Conservatives, if left unchallenged for a period, will inevitably move right, because satisfying the base become more important than winning votes from waverers. And this leaves a space that is then filled. Whether it is filled by UKIP, the Greens, the LibDems or someone else is beside the point: it will be filled.
    "Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years:"

    the UK 1979-1993ish, 1997-2007ish? Nature may abhor a vacuum, but to create one in both those situations the single party had to implode through largely unforced errors and the correction may overshoot straight to another one party state, just the other way round.
    The UK was not a one party state for 1979 to 1983. Without the Falklands War, the'83 election would have been a very close run thing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Huh, I thought BlackRook was a LD, albeit with a realistic view of their prospects, don't know why.

    That's... complicated. I guess I am closest to the Yellow Tory persuasion.

    I voted Lib Dem in 2015 because I thought that the Coalition hadn't done too badly, I felt a bit sorry for the pummelling the LDs had taken in the polls - and because I live in an ultra-safe Tory seat, so could spray my vote around in the certain knowledge of zero threat from the Left.

    As it stands I wouldn't touch the Lib Dems, with that wet pink dishrag Farron and his second referendum stitch-up, with a ten foot bargepole.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember nonsense about 1992 when lots of articles were published explaining that the UK had been moved into a 1 party state like Japan (which was rather more of a compliment in those days) and how investors no longer needed to worry about "democratic risk". All turned out to be complete tosh of course.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and the people need a choice. It doesn't have to be Labour but they are very much in pole position and are going to be very hard to shift.

    Absolutely right, David.

    Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years: no country in Europe, North America, or Australia/New Zealand. It simply doesn't happen. (Japan or Mexico are the only near examples I can think of. And one of them isn't Western. And the other's not a developed country.)

    I think democracy tends to be naturally self balancing. The Conservatives, if left unchallenged for a period, will inevitably move right, because satisfying the base become more important than winning votes from waverers. And this leaves a space that is then filled. Whether it is filled by UKIP, the Greens, the LibDems or someone else is beside the point: it will be filled.
    "Think of a single Western, developed, country which has been a one party state for more than even five or six years:"

    the UK 1979-1993ish, 1997-2007ish? Nature may abhor a vacuum, but to create one in both those situations the single party had to implode through largely unforced errors and the correction may overshoot straight to another one party state, just the other way round.
    You could argue 1997 to 2005, but '05 was a very close fought election, even if the boundaries made it look target different.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.

    According to the failure in UK polls in 2015, it is not possible to really correct for an unbalanced sample.

    Having an improper input is a problem.

    How did pollsters do with blacks in first Obama polling? His team did a massive voter registration drive back then. Did they show in the polls?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.
    +10 is a big gap though given the registration figure gap is about +5, they also didn't ask registered status, they asked what do you normally think of yourself as and that still got an 8% don't know/won't say.

    Dem 33, Pub 23. Low figures for both given registration rates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    taffys said:

    ''It is where they are heading.''

    And yet labour has done reasonably well at local level and where they've had to defend MPs in by-elections.

    The electorate is funny. They either haven't really noticed labour's slide into extremism, or they don;t really care, right now.

    Labour hasn't performed abysmally in local elections since 2015. But, they've certainly performed very poorly. A NEV share of 32% or so is bad for the Opposition, by any historical measure. And, their vote shares in the London, Scottish, and Welsh elections were down on 2015.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.
    +10 is a big gap though given the registration figure gap is about +5, they also didn't ask registered status, they asked what do you normally think of yourself as and that still got an 8% don't know/won't say.

    Dem 33, Pub 23. Low figures for both given registration rates.
    Could someone run this by me again. D+10 = 10 more Democrats in the sample, or 10% more Democrats, or what?
  • Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    PlatoSaid said:

    This is pathetic if accurate

    Bill Mitchell
    Want a joke? New WAPO Poll with Clinton only +2 uses a (wait for it) D+10 sample. Are you KIDDING me? These assholes just never stop.

    Most polls have a higher democrat sample because there are more registered democrats. The ignorance of political pundits about statistics is laughable.
    bill mitchell is a trumper who has been unskewing polls for months. i wouldnt take anything he says seriously
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    All going well for Corbyn, he just needs so say something horrific about Scotland and Labour will be under 10%.. We haven't seen the worst polling figures for Labour yet.. It could go to 19%
    Scottish Labour must be running on the surviving tribal loyalty vote and a smallish rump of pro-Union centre-left voters by now. The latter group might yet peel off to the Tories, LDs or stay at home party out of despair, permitting further decline.

    With the SNP as the dominant progressive party, the Greens patrolling the territory further to the Left, and the Lib Dems offering a more convincing pro-Union stance than Labour for those anti-Tories for whom this is still important, it's not impossible to envision Labour going down into single figures in the medium term. Unlike in England where they don't have a genuinely powerful and popular rival adopting at least a nominally centre-left position, there doesn't appear to be much of a theoretical floor at all for Labour's support in Scotland.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    Welcome aboard!
  • Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    This morning at Labour conference (h/t Guido):

    9.46am : Corbyn tells Jewish peer who quit Labour over anti-Semitism to "reflect"

    9:56am: Corbyn says he backs investigations into British troops

    10.00am: Corbyn says he opposes giving more resources to MI6

    10:22am: McDonnell defends calling for Esther McVey to be lynched

    10:40am: Yvette Cooper tells McDonnell to apologise. He doesn't.

    That, and Corbyn also reaffirmed on Marr his commitment to open border migration and to spending half a trillion pounds of additional borrowed money. And that new ICM poll has appeared with a 15% lead for the Government, in mid-term.

    It's still only 11am.

    They're certainly testing to destruction the theory that 25% is their floor.
    It would be intriguing to see Labour's percentage modelled with big results in London, university towns and areas of high ethnic - especially muslim and afro-caribbean communities - concentration, with virtual wipeout elsewhere.

    It is where they are heading.
    Labour seats (on current boundaries) under threat would include most of their gains from the Tories in 2015, Southampton Test, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle under Lyme, Darlington, Middlesborough East, Halifax, Dewsbury, Birminham Northfield, Bristol East, about 4 or 5 in Wales, Harrow West, Eltham, Westminster North, with probably only Croydon Central and Brighton Kemptown vulnerable the other way.

    Birmingham Northfield? It's been held by Richard Burden (Labour) for decades.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Maomentum
    Lynch mobs distance themselves from John McDonnell.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    'Sir Craig Oliver, a former key aide to Mr Cameron, said the then home secretary failed to back the Remain campaign 13 times and was regarded by some as "an enemy agent".'

    http://tinyurl.com/jr3pbtp

    'Exclusive: SNP must take share of responsibility for Brexit vote, says Theresa May'

    http://tinyurl.com/hhysc9n

    When will Theresa be taking her share of the responsibility for the Brexit vote?


    I'm not sure these revelations are a problem for May.

    Not in Leavistan maybe..

    We all live there now.

    What I find most entertaining about Leavistan as coined by @foxinsoxuk is that those who think XS-stan is a big problem to our borders, security and national culture.

    Leavers are for Britannia in all her many ways developed over centuries - and the sovereign right to continue to be so.
    Strictly I coined the phrase "Leaverstan" meaning "Country of the Leavers" as compared to "Remania". Both are parts of Britannia, and with Leaverstan only having a slight majority.

    These are to a degree caricatures, but not without some basis in fact. Remania is ABC1, younger, employed urban and more Scottish and Irish. Leaverstan is more C2DE, Anglo-Saxon, poorer, less likely to be employed, rural or suburban and older. The significance is that Remania is likely to cope better with the shocks of Brexit and exposure to the colds winds of globalisation in the WTO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    PlatoSaid said:

    Maomentum
    Lynch mobs distance themselves from John McDonnell.

    They're not called lynch mobs anymore, they're ad hoc free range freedom and justice people's committees.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.

    The big surprise won't be if Scottish Labour are smashed to smithereens in the local elections. It'll be if they aren't.

    The Tories were so far back in third place in 2012 that it may be a bit of an ask for them to pass Labour and come in a distant second to the SNP next year. But it would be really rather funny if they did.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    'Sir Craig Oliver, a former key aide to Mr Cameron, said the then home secretary failed to back the Remain campaign 13 times and was regarded by some as "an enemy agent".'

    http://tinyurl.com/jr3pbtp

    'Exclusive: SNP must take share of responsibility for Brexit vote, says Theresa May'

    http://tinyurl.com/hhysc9n

    When will Theresa be taking her share of the responsibility for the Brexit vote?


    I'm not sure these revelations are a problem for May.

    Not in Leavistan maybe..

    We all live there now.

    What I find most entertaining about Leavistan as coined by @foxinsoxuk is that those who think XS-stan is a big problem to our borders, security and national culture.

    Leavers are for Britannia in all her many ways developed over centuries - and the sovereign right to continue to be so.
    Strictly I coined the phrase "Leaverstan" meaning "Country of the Leavers" as compared to "Remania". Both are parts of Britannia, and with Leaverstan only having a slight majority.

    These are to a degree caricatures, but not without some basis in fact. Remania is ABC1, younger, employed urban and more Scottish and Irish. Leaverstan is more C2DE, Anglo-Saxon, poorer, less likely to be employed, rural or suburban and older. The significance is that Remania is likely to cope better with the shocks of Brexit and exposure to the colds winds of globalisation in the WTO.
    @chestnut got your view spot on.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    Welcome aboard!
    Thank you. I'm the Administrator of the Vote UK Forum so don't usually stray from that place very much. Just thought that information on Labour's poll rating was worth imparting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    This morning at Labour conference (h/t Guido):

    9.46am : Corbyn tells Jewish peer who quit Labour over anti-Semitism to "reflect"

    9:56am: Corbyn says he backs investigations into British troops

    10.00am: Corbyn says he opposes giving more resources to MI6

    10:22am: McDonnell defends calling for Esther McVey to be lynched

    10:40am: Yvette Cooper tells McDonnell to apologise. He doesn't.

    That, and Corbyn also reaffirmed on Marr his commitment to open border migration and to spending half a trillion pounds of additional borrowed money. And that new ICM poll has appeared with a 15% lead for the Government, in mid-term.

    It's still only 11am.

    They're certainly testing to destruction the theory that 25% is their floor.
    It would be intriguing to see Labour's percentage modelled with big results in London, university towns and areas of high ethnic - especially muslim and afro-caribbean communities - concentration, with virtual wipeout elsewhere.

    It is where they are heading.
    Labour seats (on current boundaries) under threat would include most of their gains from the Tories in 2015, Southampton Test, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle under Lyme, Darlington, Middlesborough East, Halifax, Dewsbury, Birminham Northfield, Bristol East, about 4 or 5 in Wales, Harrow West, Eltham, Westminster North, with probably only Croydon Central and Brighton Kemptown vulnerable the other way.

    Birmingham Northfield? It's been held by Richard Burden (Labour) for decades.
    But, his majority is now down to 2,500, and the political outlook of the constituency is hostile to Corbyn (it has 7,000 UKIP voters, for example).
  • Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    ah but the purity and principle of those remaining is so much higher...
  • Mr. Arcadian, welcome to PB.com. Are you from Arcadia?

    Mr. kle4, rather like that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    It would be genuinely miraculous if Labour held on in Glasgow. I just don't see it. They currently still control 5 councils in Scotland. Unless things start to improve for them I suspect that all of these will slip to NOC although they may remain the largest party in some. Difficult times for a once dominant party.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Maomentum
    Lynch mobs distance themselves from John McDonnell.

    They're not called lynch mobs anymore, they're ad hoc free range freedom and justice people's committees.
    I :love:@Charles anecdote here. How many can cite an ancestor for naming Lynching?!
  • Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    ah but the purity and principle of those remaining is so much higher...
    Polls are rubbish. Tools of capitalist running dogs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    vik said:

    Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania falls from 8 points to only 2 points, in the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

    And her National lead falls from 5 points to 2 points in the ABC News/Washington Post poll

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-race-narrows-doorstep-debates-poll/story?id=42313593

    Hillary's Pennsylvania lead now matches her national lead, it is back to being the key swing state. The debate tomorrow is now crucial
    I see Trumps favourable is up 5% whilst Clinton's is down 1%. I wonder if this is due to terror attacks.
    Partly, all eyes on the first debate tomorrow now
  • Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 1m

    Waterford, Ireland
    *** KEN HITLER KLAXON ***
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    This morning at Labour conference (h/t Guido):

    9.46am : Corbyn tells Jewish peer who quit Labour over anti-Semitism to "reflect"

    9:56am: Corbyn says he backs investigations into British troops

    10.00am: Corbyn says he opposes giving more resources to MI6

    10:22am: McDonnell defends calling for Esther McVey to be lynched

    10:40am: Yvette Cooper tells McDonnell to apologise. He doesn't.

    That, and Corbyn also reaffirmed on Marr his commitment to open border migration and to spending half a trillion pounds of additional borrowed money. And that new ICM poll has appeared with a 15% lead for the Government, in mid-term.

    It's still only 11am.

    They're certainly testing to destruction the theory that 25% is their floor.
    It would be intriguing to see Labour's percentage modelled with big results in London, university towns and areas of high ethnic - especially muslim and afro-caribbean communities - concentration, with virtual wipeout elsewhere.

    It is where they are heading.
    Labour seats (on current boundaries) under threat would include most of their gains from the Tories in 2015, Southampton Test, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle under Lyme, Darlington, Middlesborough East, Halifax, Dewsbury, Birminham Northfield, Bristol East, about 4 or 5 in Wales, Harrow West, Eltham, Westminster North, with probably only Croydon Central and Brighton Kemptown vulnerable the other way.

    Birmingham Northfield? It's been held by Richard Burden (Labour) for decades.
    But, his majority is now down to 2,500, and the political outlook of the constituency is hostile to Corbyn (it has 7,000 UKIP voters, for example).
    I think I may have misread what you were saying. I thought you meant Northfield had just been captured in 2010 from Tories. I lived there in 70s and early 80s, so remember when it was really marginal.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    This morning at Labour conference (h/t Guido):

    9.46am : Corbyn tells Jewish peer who quit Labour over anti-Semitism to "reflect"

    9:56am: Corbyn says he backs investigations into British troops

    10.00am: Corbyn says he opposes giving more resources to MI6

    10:22am: McDonnell defends calling for Esther McVey to be lynched

    10:40am: Yvette Cooper tells McDonnell to apologise. He doesn't.

    That, and Corbyn also reaffirmed on Marr his commitment to open border migration and to spending half a trillion pounds of additional borrowed money. And that new ICM poll has appeared with a 15% lead for the Government, in mid-term.

    It's still only 11am.

    They're certainly testing to destruction the theory that 25% is their floor.
    It would be intriguing to see Labour's percentage modelled with big results in London, university towns and areas of high ethnic - especially muslim and afro-caribbean communities - concentration, with virtual wipeout elsewhere.

    It is where they are heading.
    Labour seats (on current boundaries) under threat would include most of their gains from the Tories in 2015, Southampton Test, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle under Lyme, Darlington, Middlesborough East, Halifax, Dewsbury, Birminham Northfield, Bristol East, about 4 or 5 in Wales, Harrow West, Eltham, Westminster North, with probably only Croydon Central and Brighton Kemptown vulnerable the other way.

    Birmingham Northfield? It's been held by Richard Burden (Labour) for decades.
    Going on the ICM poll result versus the last general election, we're looking at the Tories up by about 5% and Labour down by about 5%. That would bring any Con-Lab marginal with a Labour majority of 10% or less into play.

    Going by the notional majorities for the revised boundaries calculated by Wells, Birmingham Northfield would have a Labour majority of 9.3%, or 4,428 votes over the second-placed Tories. Under a sufficiently dire scenario (and especially given that the Conservatives seem able to outperform the national swing in marginals,) it is doable.
  • McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.
  • Mr. Arcadian, welcome to PB.com. Are you from Arcadia?

    Mr. kle4, rather like that.

    Shipley.
  • first tides, now margins of error escape him..

    https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/779997779615682560
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2016

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.

    Why wouldn't he? Politics has been fantastic for him in recent years after decades of hard grind. He and Corbyn must be loving it right now.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Isn't it possible that the Labour local election performance is actually being held up because their local government base is actually pretty sensible and hasn't descended into Corbynism? Look at the willingness of many of the Northern leaders to work with Osborne, even given the provocation from the unbalanced local government funding settlements.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    PlatoSaid said:

    Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    Welcome aboard!
    Thank you. I'm the Administrator of the Vote UK Forum so don't usually stray from that place very much. Just thought that information on Labour's poll rating was worth imparting.
    Pop in more often - you'll be made quite welcome. We have biscuits and everything....
  • Mr. Scrapheap, to be fair, lots of people get marginal stuff wrong. I remember the bed-wetting headline news of inflation going up by 0.1% after we voted to leave.

    Mr. Arcadian, well, Yorkshire is God's Own County, which must be the equivalent of mythical Arcadia.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The Jenifier Flowers thing could play for HRC sympathetically, there by the grace and / or yes that happened to me I feel your pain type of approach.

    On the other hand they may not wish to place someone back in the Whitehouse with a known urge to stray with the ladies and a penchant for cigars. ( Whitehouse being a non smoking zone in'all I mean)

    So....It could play either way but I suspect it will favour HRC more than disadvantahge her in a country that has as a regular televised programme called " cheaters"
  • Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    This morning at Labour conference (h/t Guido):

    9.46am : Corbyn tells Jewish peer who quit Labour over anti-Semitism to "reflect"

    9:56am: Corbyn says he backs investigations into British troops

    10.00am: Corbyn says he opposes giving more resources to MI6

    10:22am: McDonnell defends calling for Esther McVey to be lynched

    10:40am: Yvette Cooper tells McDonnell to apologise. He doesn't.

    That, and Corbyn also reaffirmed on Marr his commitment to open border migration and to spending half a trillion pounds of additional borrowed money. And that new ICM poll has appeared with a 15% lead for the Government, in mid-term.

    It's still only 11am.

    They're certainly testing to destruction the theory that 25% is their floor.
    It would be intriguing to see Labour's percentage modelled with big results in London, university towns and areas of high ethnic - especially muslim and afro-caribbean communities - concentration, with virtual wipeout elsewhere.

    It is where they are heading.
    Labour seats (on current boundaries) under threat would include most of their gains from the Tories in 2015, Southampton Test, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire, Newcastle under Lyme, Darlington, Middlesborough East, Halifax, Dewsbury, Birminham Northfield, Bristol East, about 4 or 5 in Wales, Harrow West, Eltham, Westminster North, with probably only Croydon Central and Brighton Kemptown vulnerable the other way.

    Birmingham Northfield? It's been held by Richard Burden (Labour) for decades.
    Going on the ICM poll result versus the last general election, we're looking at the Tories up by about 5% and Labour down by about 5%. That would bring any Con-Lab marginal with a Labour majority of 10% or less into play.

    Going by the notional majorities for the revised boundaries calculated by Wells, Birmingham Northfield would have a Labour majority of 9.3%, or 4,428 votes over the second-placed Tories. Under a sufficiently dire scenario (and especially given that the Conservatives seem able to outperform the national swing in marginals,) it is doable.
    I think it is safe to say we are entering a "sufficiently dire scenario" for Labour after yesterday's results.

    The only chink for Labour is I think in their heady excitement the hard-left might overreach themselves in some way in next couple of years and the tide might turn. It's a small chance. A black swan event seems moderate Labour's only hope.
  • Mr. Scrapheap, to be fair, lots of people get marginal stuff wrong. I remember the bed-wetting headline news of inflation going up by 0.1% after we voted to leave.

    Mr. Arcadian, well, Yorkshire is God's Own County, which must be the equivalent of mythical Arcadia.

    Ken, John and Jeremy.

    Where's Diane for the full house? Or the second tier of Lady Nugee and Burgon.
  • DavidL said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    It would be genuinely miraculous if Labour held on in Glasgow. I just don't see it. They currently still control 5 councils in Scotland. Unless things start to improve for them I suspect that all of these will slip to NOC although they may remain the largest party in some. Difficult times for a once dominant party.
    The Herald was punting this scenario a week ago. Canna see it myself, the last vestige of a defence against the Red Tory accusation up in a puff of smoke.

    'Labour power hopes pinned on Tory deal as figures show council election meltdown

    LABOUR is pinning its hopes of retaining power in Scotland’s biggest city on a deal with resurgent Tories, insiders claim, as leaked internal documents show it preparing for an electoral meltdown.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zt8jxu3
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.

    Both him and Corbyn were like a dog with two dicks this morning.

    Its doesn't surprise me but I see Corbyn hasn't condemned these ambulance chasers that have now moved on to soldiers. But then I saw this tweet so no wonder he takes the stance he does:

    Alex WickhamVerified account ‏@WikiGuido 33m33 minutes ago
    Re Corbyn backing probe into British troops. Phil Shiner, disgraced lawyer behind the vexatious claims, is an old comrade of Jez at the CND.

    I thought that would be Corbyn's fuckup for the day but then he goes on to talk about MI6 and he doesn't agree with the need to expand MI6 to deal with the Jihadi threat.

    What a danger to this country this man could be.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    All going well for Corbyn, he just needs so say something horrific about Scotland and Labour will be under 10%.. We haven't seen the worst polling figures for Labour yet.. It could go to 19%
    Nice to see the loony Tory position on here confirmed, SNP really are unpopular and heading for the abyss.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    fitalass said:

    Put aside the financial loss of the Union or the issue of the currency. If you cannot even prove yourself fit enough to run the most vital public services, who would trust you to run an Independent Scotland with all the other problems that creates for the us? Many local SNP associations are now in turmoil after recent Yes converts have taken over and pushed out long time SNP members and activists who did so much of the on ground work in local areas.

    I'm from down South and obviously miss out on a lot of the nuances of the Scottish situation. Are the SNP really starting to suffer from their own bout of Momentumitis? Well...
    Ha Ha , rabid Tory Fitanut spouting the usual Tory guff
    Yawn.
    Poor didums , someone not agree with your rosy specs Tory opinion
    Yawn :-)
    I see you prefer the intelligent riposte
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    jonny83 said:

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.


    What a danger to this country this man could be.
    Only if we vote for him, which would mean the biggest danger to the country was the people themselves.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    100% seats territory? Point was made earlier that even if independence talk backs off and even Holyrood dominance is curtailed, the SNP could well still dominate at Westminster. Wouldn't surprise me, frankly.
    The SNP will almost certainly lose seats at the next Westminster election but those losses need to be kept in perspective. They will still utterly dominate Scottish representation at Westminster with at least 85% of the seats. The prospects of Scotland producing more Tory MPs than Labour ones continue to improve but we are still talking small numbers.

    FWIW I suspect we have seen peak Nat but they are so far ahead they will continue to dominate for a long time, especially in FPTP elections.
    LOL, David , they have one each at present so not hard

  • With the SNP as the dominant progressive party,

    SNP, progressive ?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited September 2016
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    WTF

    John McDonnell has indicated he has no regrets about calling fellow MP Esther McVey a "stain on humanity" and repeating a call to have her lynched ahead of the last election.

    The Labour shadow chancellor said "sometimes you need to express honest anger" as he declined to apologise to Conservative McVey as they both appeared on Peston on Sunday.

    He said that he was quoting a constituent - but added that his comments were justified by the "appalling" treatment of people with disabilities by the last government

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-09-25/mcdonnell-wont-apologise-for-stain-on-humanity-comment/

    Covering his bases there. He was quoting someone else, so it wasn't really him coming up with the words, but justifies them due to the policies she was espousing and tied it to being a plain speaker not hiding his anger at those policies. He really is slicker.

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    You add in a few 'my party at all costs' types. High floor for Labour.

    High floor? Hmm, the 26% Labour are on today with ICM would be their lowest voteshare at a general election since the 21% they got in 1918!
    I think @kle4 presumably means a high floor relative to the minor parties, which is undoubtedly correct. At this stage I would expect Corbyn Labour to poll somewhere around Michael Foot levels, or possibly a little worse - but not less than 25%.
    That is what I meant, yes. Though personally I think they'll do better than that, though not by much.
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    fitalass said:

    Put aside the financial loss of the Union or the issue of the currency. If you cannot even prove yourself fit enough to run the most vital public services, who would trust you to run an Independent Scotland with all the other problems that creates for the us? Many local SNP associations are now in turmoil after recent Yes converts have taken over and pushed out long time SNP members and activists who did so much of the on ground work in local areas.

    I'm from down South and obviously miss out on a lot of the nuances of the Scottish situation. Are the SNP really starting to suffer from their own bout of Momentumitis? Well...
    Ha Ha , rabid Tory Fitanut spouting the usual Tory guff
    Huh, I thought BlackRook was a LD, albeit with a realistic view of their prospects, don't know why.

    Probably one of those wet Clegg/Cameron types, any port in a storm.

    PS: who would admit to being an LD nowadays.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.

    Off the leash like Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    WTF

    John McDonnell has indicated he has no regrets about calling fellow MP Esther McVey a "stain on humanity" and repeating a call to have her lynched ahead of the last election.

    The Labour shadow chancellor said "sometimes you need to express honest anger" as he declined to apologise to Conservative McVey as they both appeared on Peston on Sunday.

    He said that he was quoting a constituent - but added that his comments were justified by the "appalling" treatment of people with disabilities by the last government

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-09-25/mcdonnell-wont-apologise-for-stain-on-humanity-comment/

    Covering his bases there. He was quoting someone else, so it wasn't really him coming up with the words, but justifies them due to the policies she was espousing and tied it to being a plain speaker not hiding his anger at those policies. He really is slicker.

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    You add in a few 'my party at all costs' types. High floor for Labour.

    High floor? Hmm, the 26% Labour are on today with ICM would be their lowest voteshare at a general election since the 21% they got in 1918!
    I think @kle4 presumably means a high floor relative to the minor parties, which is undoubtedly correct. At this stage I would expect Corbyn Labour to poll somewhere around Michael Foot levels, or possibly a little worse - but not less than 25%.
    That is what I meant, yes. Though personally I think they'll do better than that, though not by much.
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    fitalass said:

    Put aside the financial loss of the Union or the issue of the currency. If you cannot even prove yourself fit enough to run the most vital public services, who would trust you to run an Independent Scotland with all the other problems that creates for the us? Many local SNP associations are now in turmoil after recent Yes converts have taken over and pushed out long time SNP members and activists who did so much of the on ground work in local areas.

    I'm from down South and obviously miss out on a lot of the nuances of the Scottish situation. Are the SNP really starting to suffer from their own bout of Momentumitis? Well...
    Ha Ha , rabid Tory Fitanut spouting the usual Tory guff
    Huh, I thought BlackRook was a LD, albeit with a realistic view of their prospects, don't know why.

    Probably one of those wet Clegg/Cameron types, any port in a storm.
    Nah, that sounds more like me. Consistency of a wet biscuit over here.
  • kle4 said:

    jonny83 said:

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.


    What a danger to this country this man could be.
    Only if we vote for him, which would mean the biggest danger to the country was the people themselves.
    Well, he is an MP, so somebody votes for him.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Will Private Eye have Poems for Jezza by E J Thrib in the next edition?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Given Labour's record in Glasgow , the absolute shambles and self help , it is unbelievable how they have retained control for so long. Even the Tories would be better.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    100% seats territory? Point was made earlier that even if independence talk backs off and even Holyrood dominance is curtailed, the SNP could well still dominate at Westminster. Wouldn't surprise me, frankly.
    The SNP will almost certainly lose seats at the next Westminster election but those losses need to be kept in perspective. They will still utterly dominate Scottish representation at Westminster with at least 85% of the seats. The prospects of Scotland producing more Tory MPs than Labour ones continue to improve but we are still talking small numbers.

    FWIW I suspect we have seen peak Nat but they are so far ahead they will continue to dominate for a long time, especially in FPTP elections.
    LOL, David , they have one each at present so not hard
    However, parties other than the SNP won 14 out of the 73 FPTP constituency seats in the more recent Scottish Parliament elections. SNP still dominate but not so much this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    jonny83 said:

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.


    What a danger to this country this man could be.
    Only if we vote for him, which would mean the biggest danger to the country was the people themselves.
    Well, he is an MP, so somebody votes for him.
    Him in this instance meaning people voting the party which he leads - as we know, who is leader has a big impact on that since despite it technically being otherwise, we vote for party brands more than individuals.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    DavidL said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    It would be genuinely miraculous if Labour held on in Glasgow. I just don't see it. They currently still control 5 councils in Scotland. Unless things start to improve for them I suspect that all of these will slip to NOC although they may remain the largest party in some. Difficult times for a once dominant party.
    The Herald was punting this scenario a week ago. Canna see it myself, the last vestige of a defence against the Red Tory accusation up in a puff of smoke.

    'Labour power hopes pinned on Tory deal as figures show council election meltdown

    LABOUR is pinning its hopes of retaining power in Scotland’s biggest city on a deal with resurgent Tories, insiders claim, as leaked internal documents show it preparing for an electoral meltdown.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zt8jxu3
    Will be an alliance of the dark forces Divvie, you can be sure it will be themselves they are helping , both lots are rogues.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    100% seats territory? Point was made earlier that even if independence talk backs off and even Holyrood dominance is curtailed, the SNP could well still dominate at Westminster. Wouldn't surprise me, frankly.
    The Tories would probably win 2 seats on those numbers
    As it was they were closest of the national parties to getting a second Scottish seat.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Moses_ said:

    The Jenifier Flowers thing could play for HRC sympathetically, there by the grace and / or yes that happened to me I feel your pain type of approach.

    On the other hand they may not wish to place someone back in the Whitehouse with a known urge to stray with the ladies and a penchant for cigars. ( Whitehouse being a non smoking zone in'all I mean)

    So....It could play either way but I suspect it will favour HRC more than disadvantahge her in a country that has as a regular televised programme called " cheaters"

    Sorry but no. As someone pretty sympathetic to Hillary back then - history has proven her and husband to be serial manipulative liars.

    And her rubbishing of Bill's sex partners isn't attractive either. Trump is very flawed, but Hillary has cornered the market in cynical lying. Millennials seeing this for the first time? Who knows. It's ugly stuff whatever your politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Even the Tories would be better.
    Strong words, Malc, you might need to lie down for a minute! Or else that is one really crappy record in Glasgow.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think it is safe to say we are entering a "sufficiently dire scenario" for Labour after yesterday's results.

    The only chink for Labour is I think in their heady excitement the hard-left might overreach themselves in some way in next couple of years and the tide might turn. It's a small chance. A black swan event seems moderate Labour's only hope.

    The most likely black swan is the premature death of Corbyn before the Far Left manages to lower the leadership nomination threshold. As I've previously suggested, this is of course possible but seems very unlikely. The probability of death within one year for a man turning 67, swiped off t'web for US data which shouldn't be radically different from ours, is slightly less than 2% (source: http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/68/67 ) Presumably this unfortunate cohort will consist disproportionately of people with unhealthy lifestyles and existing serious health complications. Whereas Mr Corbyn is a bicycling, vegetarian teetotaller who gives every appearance of being very well.

    After that we are down to a total Brexit calamity - as in something on the scale of the Grecian collapse, which even the most direly pessimistic economists weren't predicting pre-referendum - or footage emerging of Theresa May barbecuing the babies of the poor for lunch at a Tory Party celebration in the Downing Street rose garden. Whilst laughing maniacally.

    One cannot be mathematically certain that Labour has had it, but they're pretty damned close.
  • taffys said:

    ''It is where they are heading.''

    And yet labour has done reasonably well at local level and where they've had to defend MPs in by-elections.

    The electorate is funny. They either haven't really noticed labour's slide into extremism, or they don;t really care, right now.

    I think it's pretty uncontentious that most voters don't really pay attention to politics outside election campaigns. Ours is very much a minority pursuit.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brad Meikle
    Romney won white men without a degree by 30 points. This morning, Trump has nearly doubled that gap. https://t.co/9qNIsHUDcp
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    DavidL said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    It would be genuinely miraculous if Labour held on in Glasgow. I just don't see it. They currently still control 5 councils in Scotland. Unless things start to improve for them I suspect that all of these will slip to NOC although they may remain the largest party in some. Difficult times for a once dominant party.
    The Herald was punting this scenario a week ago. Canna see it myself, the last vestige of a defence against the Red Tory accusation up in a puff of smoke.

    'Labour power hopes pinned on Tory deal as figures show council election meltdown

    LABOUR is pinning its hopes of retaining power in Scotland’s biggest city on a deal with resurgent Tories, insiders claim, as leaked internal documents show it preparing for an electoral meltdown.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zt8jxu3
    It would be an act of extreme desperation and, as you suggest, would leave them open to being finished off by a Tory and SNP pincer movement - based on the theory of "if you're going to end up with the red Tories, you might just as well vote for the real thing."

    I suppose it would depend (a) whether Labour could hold on to enough seats to do a deal with the Tories (not impossible under PR,) and (b) if so, whether the desire to hold on to power would trump any misgivings amongst the remaining Labourites about the consequences of a pact for their long-term survival prospects.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I think it is safe to say we are entering a "sufficiently dire scenario" for Labour after yesterday's results.

    The only chink for Labour is I think in their heady excitement the hard-left might overreach themselves in some way in next couple of years and the tide might turn. It's a small chance. A black swan event seems moderate Labour's only hope.

    The most likely black swan is the premature death of Corbyn before the Far Left manages to lower the leadership nomination threshold. As I've previously suggested, this is of course possible but seems very unlikely. The probability of death within one year for a man turning 67, swiped off t'web for US data which shouldn't be radically different from ours, is slightly less than 2% (source: http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/68/67 ) Presumably this unfortunate cohort will consist disproportionately of people with unhealthy lifestyles and existing serious health complications. Whereas Mr Corbyn is a bicycling, vegetarian teetotaller who gives every appearance of being very well.

    After that we are down to a total Brexit calamity - as in something on the scale of the Grecian collapse, which even the most direly pessimistic economists weren't predicting pre-referendum - or footage emerging of Theresa May barbecuing the babies of the poor for lunch at a Tory Party celebration in the Downing Street rose garden. Whilst laughing maniacally.

    One cannot be mathematically certain that Labour has had it, but they're pretty damned close.
    If the death of your Leader is the only way to avoid electoral calamity - and he's a slim, active, tee-total, vegetarian non-smoker - it looks like a tough bet.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    With the SNP as the dominant progressive party,

    SNP, progressive ?

    In theory...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    It would be genuinely miraculous if Labour held on in Glasgow. I just don't see it. They currently still control 5 councils in Scotland. Unless things start to improve for them I suspect that all of these will slip to NOC although they may remain the largest party in some. Difficult times for a once dominant party.
    The Herald was punting this scenario a week ago. Canna see it myself, the last vestige of a defence against the Red Tory accusation up in a puff of smoke.

    'Labour power hopes pinned on Tory deal as figures show council election meltdown

    LABOUR is pinning its hopes of retaining power in Scotland’s biggest city on a deal with resurgent Tories, insiders claim, as leaked internal documents show it preparing for an electoral meltdown.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zt8jxu3
    Why would the Tories want Labour to stay in control of Glasgow? And why would Labour want to be seen to be relying upon them? Makes no sense to me.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    malcolmg said:

    Yawn :-)

    I see you prefer the intelligent riposte
    A little earlier...
    malcolmg said:

    Ha Ha , rabid Tory Fitanut spouting the usual Tory guff

    malcolmg said:

    Poor didums , someone not agree with your rosy specs Tory opinion

    Yawn.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 1m

    Waterford, Ireland
    *** KEN HITLER KLAXON ***

    To be fair, Tim Donovan raised it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited September 2016

    taffys said:

    ''It is where they are heading.''

    And yet labour has done reasonably well at local level and where they've had to defend MPs in by-elections.

    The electorate is funny. They either haven't really noticed labour's slide into extremism, or they don;t really care, right now.

    I think it's pretty uncontentious that most voters don't really pay attention to politics outside election campaigns. Ours is very much a minority pursuit.
    I sense Labour is still doing OK in cities where there's a younger reasonably educated population, many on the receiving end of the housing crisis, but badly most places else. Insofar as there is a pattern in the local by-election results this seems to confirm this. If this persists then they will hold a lot of their London and city seats (where the lefties are) and maybe do OK in some of the student ones (although it was interesting that YouGov suggested Corbyn polled worse amongst the under 24s - the one surprise in yesterday's result) but get slaughtered in the suburban and provincial small town marginals.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    PlatoSaid said:

    I think it is safe to say we are entering a "sufficiently dire scenario" for Labour after yesterday's results.

    The only chink for Labour is I think in their heady excitement the hard-left might overreach themselves in some way in next couple of years and the tide might turn. It's a small chance. A black swan event seems moderate Labour's only hope.

    The most likely black swan is the premature death of Corbyn before the Far Left manages to lower the leadership nomination threshold. As I've previously suggested, this is of course possible but seems very unlikely. The probability of death within one year for a man turning 67, swiped off t'web for US data which shouldn't be radically different from ours, is slightly less than 2% (source: http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/68/67 ) Presumably this unfortunate cohort will consist disproportionately of people with unhealthy lifestyles and existing serious health complications. Whereas Mr Corbyn is a bicycling, vegetarian teetotaller who gives every appearance of being very well.

    After that we are down to a total Brexit calamity - as in something on the scale of the Grecian collapse, which even the most direly pessimistic economists weren't predicting pre-referendum - or footage emerging of Theresa May barbecuing the babies of the poor for lunch at a Tory Party celebration in the Downing Street rose garden. Whilst laughing maniacally.

    One cannot be mathematically certain that Labour has had it, but they're pretty damned close.
    If the death of your Leader is the only way to avoid electoral calamity - and he's a slim, active, tee-total, vegetarian non-smoker - it looks like a tough bet.
    Mr Hunt. In the Hall. With the Lead Pipe?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    jonny83 said:

    McDonnell seems to be enjoying himself this morning.

    Both him and Corbyn were like a dog with two dicks this morning.

    Its doesn't surprise me but I see Corbyn hasn't condemned these ambulance chasers that have now moved on to soldiers. But then I saw this tweet so no wonder he takes the stance he does:

    Alex WickhamVerified account ‏@WikiGuido 33m33 minutes ago
    Re Corbyn backing probe into British troops. Phil Shiner, disgraced lawyer behind the vexatious claims, is an old comrade of Jez at the CND.

    I thought that would be Corbyn's fuckup for the day but then he goes on to talk about MI6 and he doesn't agree with the need to expand MI6 to deal with the Jihadi threat.

    What a danger to this country this man could be.
    There are people whose downfall is delightful to witness. Phil Shiner is one of them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545


    With the SNP as the dominant progressive party,

    SNP, progressive ?

    In theory...
    That will become less and less sustainable. The SNP are the establishment in Scotland. A bit like saying Fianna Fail is the progressive party for Ireland
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    I love Craig Olivers whining about about Theresa May in today's MoS.

    The vicars daughter ran rings around all those daft men... She played a blinder! :smiley:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    I think it is safe to say we are entering a "sufficiently dire scenario" for Labour after yesterday's results.

    The only chink for Labour is I think in their heady excitement the hard-left might overreach themselves in some way in next couple of years and the tide might turn. It's a small chance. A black swan event seems moderate Labour's only hope.

    The most likely black swan is the premature death of Corbyn before the Far Left manages to lower the leadership nomination threshold. As I've previously suggested, this is of course possible but seems very unlikely. The probability of death within one year for a man turning 67, swiped off t'web for US data which shouldn't be radically different from ours, is slightly less than 2% (source: http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/68/67 ) Presumably this unfortunate cohort will consist disproportionately of people with unhealthy lifestyles and existing serious health complications. Whereas Mr Corbyn is a bicycling, vegetarian teetotaller who gives every appearance of being very well.

    After that we are down to a total Brexit calamity - as in something on the scale of the Grecian collapse, which even the most direly pessimistic economists weren't predicting pre-referendum - or footage emerging of Theresa May barbecuing the babies of the poor for lunch at a Tory Party celebration in the Downing Street rose garden. Whilst laughing maniacally.

    One cannot be mathematically certain that Labour has had it, but they're pretty damned close.
    If the death of your Leader is the only way to avoid electoral calamity - and he's a slim, active, tee-total, vegetarian non-smoker - it looks like a tough bet.
    Mr Hunt. In the Hall. With the Lead Pipe?
    An ice-pick?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Even the Tories would be better.
    Strong words, Malc, you might need to lie down for a minute! Or else that is one really crappy record in Glasgow.
    Not at all.If it weren't for the inconvenient label they have saddled themselves with - the Conservative and Unonist Party - our Malc is clearly a Tory
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    Corbyn knows he will never win an election. Thats not his job. His job is to secure the party for the left.

    He wont change the leadership rules to lower the threshold for nominations, if anything he will increase the numbers of signatures needed - once the PLP has been purged those rules will stop the rump blairites nominating anyone.

    He will hang around until he finds a successor, someone from the hard left aged about 50 who has Livingstones or Hattons charisma - that person is probably a radical left wing councillor somewhere who will enter parliament in 2020, become leader after the 2025 election and defeat an exhausted Tory government in 2030 or even 2035.

    Corbyn is Moses. He is playing a long game of leading the party out of the Blairite wilderness and knows he may not live to enter the promised land, but will see to it that Labour (and possibly even the UK) does enter it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Yawn :-)

    I see you prefer the intelligent riposte
    A little earlier...
    malcolmg said:

    Ha Ha , rabid Tory Fitanut spouting the usual Tory guff

    malcolmg said:

    Poor didums , someone not agree with your rosy specs Tory opinion

    Yawn.

    jog on
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Liverpool Echo
    Derek Hatton is back at #Lab16 - 'some bothered, but Jeremy isn't' https://t.co/ppUNWs7qAz


    This all makes me feel like a teenager again
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Even the Tories would be better.
    Strong words, Malc, you might need to lie down for a minute! Or else that is one really crappy record in Glasgow.
    Not at all.If it weren't for the inconvenient label they have saddled themselves with - the Conservative and Unonist Party - our Malc is clearly a Tory
    FF43 Right wing SNP , I have a heart so cannot be a Tory
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Even the Tories would be better.
    Strong words, Malc, you might need to lie down for a minute! Or else that is one really crappy record in Glasgow.
    Not at all.If it weren't for the inconvenient label they have saddled themselves with - the Conservative and Unonist Party - our Malc is clearly a Tory
    FF43 Right wing SNP , I have a heart so cannot be a Tory
    I have a cuckoo clock so cannot be SNP.

    Cuckoo. Cookoo
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Corbyn knows he will never win an election. Thats not his job. His job is to secure the party for the left.

    He wont change the leadership rules to lower the threshold for nominations, if anything he will increase the numbers of signatures needed - once the PLP has been purged those rules will stop the rump blairites nominating anyone.

    He will hang around until he finds a successor, someone from the hard left aged about 50 who has Livingstones or Hattons charisma - that person is probably a radical left wing councillor somewhere who will enter parliament in 2020, become leader after the 2025 election and defeat an exhausted Tory government in 2030 or even 2035.

    Corbyn is Moses. He is playing a long game of leading the party out of the Blairite wilderness and knows he may not live to enter the promised land, but will see to it that Labour (and possibly even the UK) does enter it.

    That's the plan, but Labour may disintegrate, or be replaced, if they suffer successive huge defeats. 190 seats in 2020 may become 130 in 2025 if Labour keeps running as a radical socialist party.
  • Labour's 26% rating with ICM for the Sun on Sunday is, I believe, its lowest whilst in Opposition since September 1983.

    5...4...3...2...1....Incoming Justin124 to tell us that it isn't that bad for Labour...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Panelbase Westminster VI poll for The Sunday Times

    SNP 50%
    Con 21%
    Lab 16%
    LD 5%
    Greens 4%
    UKIP 4%

    First recorded instance of press informing us that the SNP honeymoon was over, 22 May 2007. Looking forward to many more years of it.
    Hang on, aren't we past 'Peak Nat?' All the well-informed Scottish columnists told me that we were.

    Very much looking forward to SLab finally being routed out of Glasgow City Council in May. Long overdue.
    For me that would probably be a bigger deal than the last Holyrood elections. I still have an instinctive, almost superstitious belief in the tenacity of Glesga Labour, but then I look at their current crop of representatives.

    Fwiw I think the SCons will increase their tally from their current married-to-a-Nat one.
    I see from wikipedia a Conservative was leader of Glasgow City Council for a few years in the late 70s - what a strange and different time it was then.
    Even the Tories would be better.
    Strong words, Malc, you might need to lie down for a minute! Or else that is one really crappy record in Glasgow.
    Not at all.If it weren't for the inconvenient label they have saddled themselves with - the Conservative and Unonist Party - our Malc is clearly a Tory
    FF43 Right wing SNP , I have a heart so cannot be a Tory
    I have a cuckoo clock so cannot be SNP.

    Cuckoo. Cookoo
    LOL, so it has not been smashed up yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Liverpool Echo
    Derek Hatton is back at #Lab16 - 'some bothered, but Jeremy isn't' https://t.co/ppUNWs7qAz


    This all makes me feel like a teenager again

    What is it with these property developers and Maomentum?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn knows he will never win an election. Thats not his job. His job is to secure the party for the left.

    He wont change the leadership rules to lower the threshold for nominations, if anything he will increase the numbers of signatures needed - once the PLP has been purged those rules will stop the rump blairites nominating anyone.

    He will hang around until he finds a successor, someone from the hard left aged about 50 who has Livingstones or Hattons charisma - that person is probably a radical left wing councillor somewhere who will enter parliament in 2020, become leader after the 2025 election and defeat an exhausted Tory government in 2030 or even 2035.

    Corbyn is Moses. He is playing a long game of leading the party out of the Blairite wilderness and knows he may not live to enter the promised land, but will see to it that Labour (and possibly even the UK) does enter it.

    That's the plan, but Labour may disintegrate, or be replaced, if they suffer successive huge defeats. 190 seats in 2020 may become 130 in 2025 if Labour keeps running as a radical socialist party.
    Oh absolutely, it is not necessarily the case that the plan will succeed. However if the tories implode like they did during Majors 92-97 in the late 2020s it just might. That is a scary prospect. Go to Veneuzela to see what will happen if it does.

  • GIN1138 said:

    I love Craig Olivers whining about about Theresa May in today's MoS.

    The vicars daughter ran rings around all those daft men... She played a blinder! :smiley:

    The thing that stood out for me was the tale even at 3am, Remain number cruncher model told them they had won. I wouldn't employ their people for anything related in the future !!!
  • tlg86 said:

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 1m

    Waterford, Ireland
    *** KEN HITLER KLAXON ***

    To be fair, Tim Donovan raised it.
    Why I wonder...
  • ex LD SPAD view

    "The great leader spoke at a London Labour reception last night and I have never seen a speech by so senior a figure in British politics so roundly ignored by those present."
    .... "Given Jeremy Corbyn seems to want to turn Labour into the Liberal Democrats – a protest group with a small parliamentary wing – his plan, in all respects, seems to be working out beautifully."
    http://nicktyrone.com/report-liverpool-labour-becoming-lib-dems/
  • GIN1138 said:

    I love Craig Olivers whining about about Theresa May in today's MoS.
    The vicars daughter ran rings around all those daft men... She played a blinder! :smiley:

    The thing that stood out for me was the tale even at 3am, Remain number cruncher model told them they had won. I wouldn't employ their people for anything related in the future !!!
    Good point. The REMAIN model was inferior to the PB one from.... ?Andy?
  • GIN1138 said:

    I love Craig Olivers whining about about Theresa May in today's MoS.

    The vicars daughter ran rings around all those daft men... She played a blinder! :smiley:

    The thing that stood out for me was the tale even at 3am, Remain number cruncher model told them they had won. I wouldn't employ their people for anything related in the future !!!
    Absolutely. I had the spreadsheet that someone here had wonderfully done.

    I think that had Sunderland 53-47 leave for a 50-50 national result.

    Once Sunderland came in at over 60% Leave then it was game over unless something extraordinary happened in London
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Trumps lead on LA Times poll jumps to +4 from+2 (had been closing for a few days) http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Liam Murphy
    Derek Hatton at the Labour Conference, first time here as an audience member since 1985. https://t.co/7HEkdhUq5h
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Liam Murphy
    Derek Hatton at the Labour Conference, first time here as an audience member since 1985. https://t.co/7HEkdhUq5h

    Militant got their party back.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The Graveyard vote - I LOVE the last sentence.
    ----------------------
    One of the biggest voter fraud cases the station found was through the voting record of Sara Sosa of Colorado Springs. She died October 14, 2009, but ballots were cast in her name in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

    Her husband died on September 26, 2008, but a ballot was cast in his name in 2009.

    “Somebody was able to cast a vote that was not theirs to cast,” El Paso county clerk and recorder Chuck Broerman told CBS4, saying that the problem of people voting on behalf of the dead is “very serious.”

    Broerman said the Sosas remained active on voter rolls because they did not meet the criteria to have their names removed from the rolls.
    ------------------------- (Breitbart but even if it isn't true it's a good story)
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Liam Murphy
    Derek Hatton at the Labour Conference, first time here as an audience member since 1985. https://t.co/7HEkdhUq5h

    Militant got their party back.
    Could things be any bleaker for Labour.
This discussion has been closed.