Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be tu

12346»

Comments

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''A return to positive real interest rates would help everyone too.''

    I don;t want to become a rentier, but with interest rates where they are, there is very little choice.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Someone just told me they had heard 84 MP's were going to resign and join another party.. Its there any truth in this?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Interesting piece on how the media haven't been able to cope with Trump (or indeed the rejection of the "establishment" by a large chunk of the Republican party): http://pressthink.org/2016/09/asymmetry-between-the-major-parties-fries-the-circuits-of-the-mainstream-press/

    In Labour Leader news, today I have been backing Cat Smith at 400/1+. It's staggering how many of the Shadow Cabinet aren't even quoted on Betfair yet!

    Interesting tip Mr TP. She is vaguely coherent in a McD sort of way.

    Afraid I'm now not going to be at Conference after all. Hopefully next year.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Someone just told me they had heard 84 MP's were going to resign and join another party.. Its there any truth in this?

    This would stop SNP getting a automatic question each Wednesday wouldn't it?

    How delicious.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Just on the M1, if you want to travel on it after 9pm, forget it!
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    The point of dividends is that corporation tax has already been charge upon them, so the rate of tax is much lower on themselves individually, but similar overall.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Let's face it under Labour it will be the middle that get squeezed as they usually do and were between 97-2010. This government needs to do more for the middle classes but I know it would be worse under Labour for sure.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    And very popular - especially among the young. I remember how popular Leninspart and co were at the GLC - anyone thinking this lot cannot win an election in the next 15 years is deluded.

    They've got a good handle on the young and on London already. Two problems: the young don't vote (and are a comparatively small, and declining, proportion of the electorate relative to the middle aged and elderly,) and even if Labour weren't completely tanking in the polls it doesn't have many more winnable seats to go for in London.

    Each time McDonnell used the word "socialism" in his speech, Jeremy Corbyn's removal van drove another three miles away from Downing St. And it's already parked up somewhere in the Kazakh steppe. Even if you were to go through his speech line by line and say to yourself, "Mmmm, perhaps he has a point about this, this and this," you would then have to acknowledge that it hardly matters. Because the Far Left is sufficiently toxic that a crucial plurality of voters - especially all those middle class, middle income pragmatists who might once have considered backing Tony Blair, but chose Cameron over EdM at the last election - won't even listen.

    In order to win the next election, Labour would have to capture over a hundred seats. Unless Scottish Labour can be miraculously resuscitated, then nearly all of those will have to come from the Tories, and that in turn will require a mass defection of millions of voters directly from Con to Lab. There is no way around this: the Lib Dems are down to bedrock, the Green vote is too small to make much of a difference, the average Ukip voter is more likely than anybody else to detest the Far Left, and you can't just pray for millions of non-voters to come and rescue you because they are called non-voters for a very good reason.

    So, you have to ask yourself, why would any significant proportion of those people who voted for the Tories last year want to swap sides and back the Far Left? Imagining that they would want to do something so contrary demands that you also imagine millions of voters undergoing a total personality transplant between now and 2020.

    Especially after boundary change, the Tories only have to hold on to what they've got to win. The reality is that they are very likely to do better. And there is no particular reason to suppose that Labour's fortunes will improve after that - because it doesn't matter how long the Tories are in power and how jaded and unpopular they might become, people aren't going to vote them out if the alternative appears to be worse. There is, quite simply, an insufficient plurality of sympathetic voters to put the Far Left into Government in this country.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,365
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Mortimer said:

    Interesting piece on how the media haven't been able to cope with Trump (or indeed the rejection of the "establishment" by a large chunk of the Republican party): http://pressthink.org/2016/09/asymmetry-between-the-major-parties-fries-the-circuits-of-the-mainstream-press/

    In Labour Leader news, today I have been backing Cat Smith at 400/1+. It's staggering how many of the Shadow Cabinet aren't even quoted on Betfair yet!

    Interesting tip Mr TP. She is vaguely coherent in a McD sort of way.

    Afraid I'm now not going to be at Conference after all. Hopefully next year.
    Hopefully you'll attend - or hopefully there'll even be a Conference? ;-)
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:

    Miss Plato, point of order: science is great. Scientists, however, are only human. Some make mistakes, and some are rapscallions.

    As ever, go with the evidence not the people.
    Who decides what research gets done and what spin is put on it, with a view to doing what research in future? "Evidence" or people who give out or get big-money grants?

    There used to be ice fairs on the Thames, until the climate warmed up so much that they couldn't be held any more. That was before industry. The climate has always changed and it always will. It's natural for it to change. The bought-and-paid-for "knowledgists", or "scientists" to use the Latinate term, haven't got much of a clue why. As for stopping the climate changing, if that isn't an insane anti-nature aim (for some clothed apes with their necks wound right out) then I don't know what is.
    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/
    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608
    If that is true, snipas fast as they can.

    So instead of the UK adopting hairshirt measures that just make our industry more uncompetitive to make lefties and greenies feel smug we should accept that it is happening for whatever reason and plan mitigating things like flood defences, storm drains etc. Being a bunch of silly cnuts wont help anyone.
    If the Earth's temperature is rising, then the Earth must be receiving more energy from the sun than it is emitting. Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny and the Earth's orbit hasn't changed, the only possible explanation for the Earth's rising temperature is a reduction in the radiation emitted from the Earth. And the only plausible reason for this is the insulating effect of the large amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    ffs "Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny..." Try googling "Maunder minimum". AGW is probably a thing, but you are simply not equipped to judge whether it is true or false if you are as scientifically illiterate as this claim suggests.
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,767

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Tax; McDonnell says he'll shift tax burden from those who earn salaries "to those who hold wealth" > you listening middle England? #lab16

    Given that most of the super-rich have made much more from asset price appreciation than from taxable income these last ten years, he may well have a point.
    No doubt the super rich could be taken for more. Land Tax would be interesting.
    Hmmm. On what basis would it be levelled?
    I don't know any details. I know Liberals used to talk about it.

    There is a campaign: http://www.landvaluetax.org/what-is-lvt/
    The Scottish Green party commissioned a fully-fledged policy paper as part of their Holyrood campaign:

    http://www.andywightman.com/docs/LVTREPORT.pdf
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
  • Options

    Someone just told me they had heard 84 MP's were going to resign and join another party.. Its there any truth in this?

    No.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    The point of dividends is that corporation tax has already been charge upon them, so the rate of tax is much lower on themselves individually, but similar overall.
    Which is really convenient for the wealthy who can afford large numbers of shares.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Interesting piece on how the media haven't been able to cope with Trump (or indeed the rejection of the "establishment" by a large chunk of the Republican party): http://pressthink.org/2016/09/asymmetry-between-the-major-parties-fries-the-circuits-of-the-mainstream-press/

    In Labour Leader news, today I have been backing Cat Smith at 400/1+. It's staggering how many of the Shadow Cabinet aren't even quoted on Betfair yet!

    Interesting tip Mr TP. She is vaguely coherent in a McD sort of way.

    Afraid I'm now not going to be at Conference after all. Hopefully next year.
    Pity. Any other PB'ers going? Provided Mrs P. can keep #3 in her belly (due 13th Oct!) I should be there Mon-Wed - think I'll have to miss Sunday because of the Ryder Cup (work, not just watching!)
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Someone just told me they had heard 84 MP's were going to resign and join another party.. Its there any truth in this?

    No.
    Are you 100% CERTAIN ?
  • Options
    Ishmael_X said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:

    Miss Plato, point of order: science is great. Scientists, however, are only human. Some make mistakes, and some are rapscallions.

    As ever, go with the evidence not the people.
    Who decides what research gets done and what spin is put on it, with a view to doing what research in future? "Evidence" or people who give out or get big-money grants?
    .
    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/
    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608
    If that is true, snipas fast as they can.

    So instead of the UK adopting hairshirt measures that just make our industry more uncompetitive to make lefties and greenies feel smug we should accept that it is happening for whatever reason and plan mitigating things like flood defences, storm drains etc. Being a bunch of silly cnuts wont help anyone.
    If the Earth's temperature is rising, then the Earth must be receiving more energy from the sun than it is emitting. Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny and the Earth's orbit hasn't changed, the only possible explanation for the Earth's rising temperature is a reduction in the radiation emitted from the Earth. And the only plausible reason for this is the insulating effect of the large amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    ffs "Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny..." Try googling "Maunder minimum". AGW is probably a thing, but you are simply not equipped to judge whether it is true or false if you are as scientifically illiterate as this claim suggests.
    In terms of heat output I believe that to be the case. But there are other far more significant variables, most of which are little understood.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Labour's fracking flip-flop upsets GMB union: were in favour a month ago, now against.
    http://order-order.com/2016/09/26/labours-fracking-flip-flop/

    Fracking flip-flops fuels fraternal fracas.

    Meanwhile, what are the Shadow Cabinet doing announcing policy on anything now that it's all down to members?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2016

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
    The idle rich living off their dividends (and more significantly, contractors using service companies) pay more tax than used to be the case, thanks to George Osborne, if that's who you mean by 'Gideon'. Indeed there was much fuss about the change he made, for that very reason.

    But you are never one to let mere facts get in the way of your prejudices.
  • Options
    Cookie said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
    When it is quiet the cameras every half mile are set to 70mph.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Tax; McDonnell says he'll shift tax burden from those who earn salaries "to those who hold wealth" > you listening middle England? #lab16

    Wealth like houses, savings , cars and pension funds ?

    Right oh.

    Some of those owning large houses may be pensioners and widows who do not have a vast annual income, their needs to be a better balance between the two not a complete shift from one to the other
    Then sell up buy somewhere smaller and make room for a family. If you dont want to then pay the tax and stop moaning.
    Loads of oldies with big houses would love to sell and downscale but the tax can be penal. Abolish stamp duty and what you say makes some sense.
    And undo Osborne's property exexpltion from inheritance tax.

    The incentives are all wrong at the moment, whole policy area needs a serious rethink.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2016
    Cookie said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
    Smart motorways cause bunching, and late lane changers make it even worse see J12 of the M25 turnoff for the M3. Motorway needs redesigning to stop this.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,955

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Tax; McDonnell says he'll shift tax burden from those who earn salaries "to those who hold wealth" > you listening middle England? #lab16

    Wealth like houses, savings , cars and pension funds ?

    Right oh.

    Some of those owning large houses may be pensioners and widows who do not have a vast annual income, their needs to be a better balance between the two not a complete shift from one to the other
    Then sell up buy somewhere smaller and make room for a family. If you dont want to then pay the tax and stop moaning.
    I am not saying they pay no wealth tax just that income also needs to be included in the tax system too
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,896
    edited September 2016

    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:



    As ever, go with the evidence not the people.

    .
    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/
    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608
    If that is true, then that does not mean that any human action hasnecessarily caused it. Also we cannot practically do anything about it as evidenced by Germany, China and Japan building coal power stations as fast as they can.

    So instead of the UK adopting hairshirt measures that just make our industry more uncompetitive to make lefties and greenies feel smug we should accept that it is happening for whatever reason and plan mitigating things like flood defences, storm drains etc. Being a bunch of silly cnuts wont help anyone.
    If the Earth's temperature is rising, then the Earth must be receiving more energy from the sun than it is emitting. Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny and the Earth's orbit hasn't changed, the only possible explanation for the Earth's rising temperature is a reduction in the radiation emitted from the Earth. And the only plausible reason for this is the insulating effect of the large amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    Carbon dioxide is a trace element that comprises a tiny fraction of 1% of the composition of the atmosphere.

    Anything going on on the sun electromagnetically that influences cosmic rays and/or cloud formation would have much more effect but as yet little is known and even less fully understood about this.
    The gases that make up most of our atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen, are not greenhouse gases and therefore don't interact with the outgoing radiation, so it makes no sense to compare the concentration of CO2 with their concentrations. You might as way say that a pinch of cyanide in your meal can't have any effect because it constitutes a tiny fraction of the food on your plate.

    As for cosmic rays / cloud formation, it makes no logical sense to say that they would have a greater impact if, as you claim, little is known or understood about them.

    P.S. Carbon dioxide isn't an element.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Cookie said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
    I was sceptical until I first drove on the original M25 section. The traffic keeps moving and there are fewer stops and starts.

    More importantly, the number of hard stops from 80-90 to zero has been massively reduced. Those are what used to kill people.
  • Options

    Someone just told me they had heard 84 MP's were going to resign and join another party.. Its there any truth in this?

    No.
    Are you 100% CERTAIN ?
    Yes.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
    It was never 10% tax. That 10% tax was actually a nominal tax credit. Not a tax charge. It grossed up net dividends to gross divdends.

    That actually meant an effective rate of tax of 0% on the basic rate, and 25% on the higher rate, and it's now 7.5% and 32.5%. But as thats on profits which were taxed on corporation tax at 20% overall its effectively equivalent to income tax on employment income (ignoring NI etc).

    Tax is not a simple thing, and you need to understand how it works in totality, not individual segments of it.
  • Options

    Cookie said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
    Smart motorways cause bunching, and late lane changers make it even worse see J12 of the M25 turnoff for the M3. Motorway needs redesigning to stop this.
    The north side from the A1 to the A10 is terrible for this too.
  • Options
    I'm hearing that Charlie Falconer is going to resign 84 times in a coordinated action.
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:



    As ever, go with the evidence not the people.

    .
    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/
    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    Carbon dioxide is a trace element that comprises a tiny fraction of 1% of the composition of the atmosphere.

    Anything going on on the sun electromagnetically that influences cosmic rays and/or cloud formation would have much more effect but as yet little is known and even less fully understood about this.
    The gases that make up most of our atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen, are not greenhouse gases and therefore don't interact with the outgoing radiation, so it makes no sense to compare the concentration of CO2 with their concentrations. You might as way say that a pinch of cyanide in your meal can't have any effect because it constitutes a tiny fraction of the food on your plate.

    As for cosmic rays / cloud formation, it makes no logical sense to say that they would have a greater impact if, as you claim, little is known or understood about them.

    P.S. Carbon dioxide isn't an element.
    Water Vapour most certainly is a greenhouse gas and there is vastly more of that around than C02. A small increase in cloud formation will have far more effect than a large change C02 concentration.

    "As for cosmic rays / cloud formation, it makes no logical sense to say that they would have a greater impact if, as you claim, little is known or understood about them."

    It also makes no sense to say that C02 changes will have a devastating impact when we know there are effects involving cosmic rays, clouds and the Suns electromagnetic behaviour that we know so little about that we cannot even estimate the effect they have.



  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    Yeah I worked out its probably not worth going for a service company, the savings are pretty small.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    Yeah I worked out its probably not worth going for a service company, the savings are pretty small.
    There are reasons other than tax to have a service company, and if you have spouses etc, you can be more flexible in using tax threasholds.
  • Options

    new thread

  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
    Tax is not a simple thing, and you need to understand how it works in totality, not individual segments of it.
    Taxes, like pensions, have become just too complicated for normal people to understand properly. This works well for dodgy chancellors and financial advisers but sucks for everyone else. We need root and branch simplification and loophole closure. Make it idiot proof.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
    It was never 10% tax. That 10% tax was actually a nominal tax credit. Not a tax charge. It grossed up net dividends to gross divdends.

    That actually meant an effective rate of tax of 0% on the basic rate, and 25% on the higher rate, and it's now 7.5% and 32.5%. But as thats on profits which were taxed on corporation tax at 20% overall its effectively equivalent to income tax on employment income (ignoring NI etc).

    Tax is not a simple thing, and you need to understand how it works in totality, not individual segments of it.
    Corporation tax is irrelevant because the shareholder dosent pay it. You might as well claim the real basic rate of income tax is 45.8% by including employers NI as wel as employees.
  • Options
    Ishmael_X said:

    Nigelb said:


    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/

    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608
    If that is true, snipas fast as they can.

    So instead of the UK adopting hairshirt measures that just make our industry more uncompetitive to make lefties and greenies feel smug we should accept that it is happening for whatever reason and plan mitigating things like flood defences, storm drains etc. Being a bunch of silly cnuts wont help anyone.
    If the Earth's temperature is rising, then the Earth must be receiving more energy from the sun than it is emitting. Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny and the Earth's orbit hasn't changed, the only possible explanation for the Earth's rising temperature is a reduction in the radiation emitted from the Earth. And the only plausible reason for this is the insulating effect of the large amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    ffs "Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny..." Try googling "Maunder minimum". AGW is probably a thing, but you are simply not equipped to judge whether it is true or false if you are as scientifically illiterate as this claim suggests.
    I know what the Maunder Minimum is. What does this have to do with the fact that the rise in the Earth's temperature over the last century or so is considerably greater than can be accounted for by any changes in solar output? The change in the Earth's temperature does tally pretty well with the reduction in radiation emitted from the Earth due to the greenhouse effect, though.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    Yeah I worked out its probably not worth going for a service company, the savings are pretty small.
    Max, I'm in a position that I could create a service company. At what sort of money does it become worthwhile?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Patrick said:

    Mortimer said:

    TonyE said:

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which labour becomes unproductive compared to either machinery or export of the work itself to a lower wage economy.

    Unfortunately, there is a threshold over which voting Labour becomes unproductive compared to voting for almost any other party. That threshold is owning a property. Aspiring to own a property. Owning a business. Aspiring to own a business. Earning more than the minimum wage. Aspiring to earn more than the minimum wage....



    Indeed and increasingly virtually anyone under 40 is locked out of all these aspirations by the ratio of asset prices to wages being totally disproportionate.

    Hence the rise of the Corbynistas.

    By stating that wealth (ie asset ownership) should be more heavily taxed and wages less taxed McDonnell is hitting the nail on the head.

    If I work I pay 32% income tax on my earnings (20% + 12% NI)

    If I am rolling in it and own vast quantities of shares, living of the dividends, I pay 10% income tax and no NI - 70% less tax.

    That is an injustice.
    You're wrong on dividends. GO changed the way it is taxed entirely and abolished the tax credit too.

    And the whole point of dividends is to encourage the investment of capital in worthwhile enterprise.


    I do apologise, you are quite right. Its now 0% for the first £5k and then 7.5% not 10% up to the end of the basic thresholds with much lower rates for higher rate taxpayers too.

    So the idle rich living off their dividends pay even less tax compared with a working man earning the same thanks to Gideon.

    ...and people think Corbyn cant win
    Tax is not a simple thing, and you need to understand how it works in totality, not individual segments of it.
    Taxes, like pensions, have become just too complicated for normal people to understand properly. This works well for dodgy chancellors and financial advisers but sucks for everyone else. We need root and branch simplification and loophole closure. Make it idiot proof.
    Yep! Make the rules very simple, so anyone can understand them. Then go hard on evaders.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cookie said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:


    On the other hand basic infrastructure is a no brainer.

    Our infrastructure is second rate. Housing, broad band, roads, power, airports, the things that make life easier and more efficient.

    This country has been skimping for the last 50 years and it shows.

    I think I would agree with that Mr. Brooke, and having driven up to Leeds and back this last weekend it would seem that at least on the motorway network serious money is now being invested.
    I live between J30 and 31, and can';t work out quite what has been done on the motorway. There seem to have been speed restrictions for ages and a large purple pipe has been put down the middle of the carriageways...
    That section is being converted to a "Smart Motorway". Someone will know exactly what that means, but as far as I can gather from sections that have already been converted there will be variable speed limits and the hard shoulder can be switched to an additional lane when the level of traffic builds up.

    The big purple pipe running along the top of the central reservation I can't help you with. I think it might be just a conduit for the wires needed to carry the signals to the giant signs telling drivers to use/not use the hard shoulder.
    "Smart Motorways" mean that it will be an average speed check for the entire length of that part!
    Only at times where volume of traffic on the motorway cannot be accommodated at the national speed limit.
    These work rather better than advisory speed limits, which are roundly ignored, and thus lead to bunching.
    Smart motorways get you there quicker!
    Smart motorways cause bunching, and late lane changers make it even worse see J12 of the M25 turnoff for the M3. Motorway needs redesigning to stop this.
    M3 is so bad that I now drive out via the M4 and drop south once out of London.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    New poll has Trump up by two 43% - 41% in a 4-way matchup https://t.co/SMpKT2sKJp
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:

    Miss Plato, point of order: science is great. Scientists, however, are only human. Some make mistakes, and some are rapscallions.

    As ever, go with the evidence not the people.
    .
    Obligatory xkcd
    https://xkcd.com/1732/
    Indeed. You might just as well dismiss a housefire with the assertion, "Yes, the temperature in the lounge always changes. It was much warmer last summer than it is now."
    Inconvenient evidence...
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201608
    If that is true, then that does not mean that any human action hasnecessarily caused it. Also we cannot practically do anything about it as evidenced by Germany, China and Japan building coal power stations as fast as they can.

    So instead of the UK adopting hairshirt measures that just make our industry more uncompetitive to make lefties and greenies feel smug we should accept that it is happening for whatever reason and plan mitigating things like flood defences, storm drains etc. Being a bunch of silly cnuts wont help anyone.
    If the Earth's temperature is rising, then the Earth must be receiving more energy from the sun than it is emitting. Given that the variations in the sun's output are tiny and the Earth's orbit hasn't changed, the only possible explanation for the Earth's rising temperature is a reduction in the radiation emitted from the Earth. And the only plausible reason for this is the insulating effect of the large amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries

    There is virtually no doubt that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the currently measured warming. You'd have to be a really silly cnut to deny this.
    Carbon dioxide is a trace element that comprises a tiny fraction of 1% of the composition of the atmosphere.

    Anything going on on the sun electromagnetically that influences cosmic rays and/or cloud formation would have much more effect but as yet little is known and even less fully understood about this.
    Cosmic ray/ cloud formation is soooooo 10 years ago as an alternative explination.
This discussion has been closed.