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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winne

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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    The Telegraph began investigating corruption in English football last year after receiving information that specific managers, officials and agents were giving or receiving cash payments to secure player transfers.

    Over the coming days, the Telegraph will detail a series of allegations of financial impropriety in British football which raise serious questions about the governance and influence of money within the game.

    In the video they beep out 2 names....I am going to guess will we be finding those out shortly!
    How old is the video? Pre Sam England days?
    "The meeting at the May Fair Hotel on August 19"
    Blimey. I hate reporters stitching up people. Really should be illegal to pretend you are someone else.

    Happened to me once. Geezer Edited the vid, then said they lost the cuts so could only cover my bits, completely changed the context. Still, Sam looks f*cked on this.
    Lets wait and see what comes out....
    I like Sam, I think rougues make great managers. Jose, Redknapp, Fergy etc
    Three of those four coincidentally made star appearances in the 2006 Panorama film...
    No surprise. I used to know A Club Chairman very well. The stories he used to tell me about bungs...brown paper bags with cash were a weekly event. I won't say anymore, because it might still be alive! Essentially, the game has always been run like the inside a local bookies!
    Just checked...he's dead. he once told me that a team had drawn in the FA Cup and they had a replay. The other side needed to move the date so a Chairman got £30k in used notes to do it! Then the other team said, "look mate, if this is a draw, another replay, we can't fit it in our schedule. Have another bung. Chairman then instructed a player to score an own goal. It was rife. I don't have any details at all sadly, just mild anecdotes X 1000
    From yesterday....

    Uefa had Forest-Anderlecht referee bribe evidence 'for four years'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-37453762
    Rife I tell you. And Anderlecht were clearly not alone in this.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2016
    On the debate: I expect that sentiment, and therefore the betting, might well shift substantially as a result of the debate. I haven't much of a clue in which direction, although if pushed I'd say Trump is more likely to be the winner. Either way, it's likely that the shift will be an over-reaction. I'm currently green on both with a small tilt towards Hillary. My plan is to go to bed, and in the morning to bet against whoever is regarded as 'winning'.
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    From my experience here in Cambridge, you're 100% right.

    Back in 1992/3, a mate and myself spent a few days sitting outside the refectory at QMW and planned an online encyclopedia. Knowing we could not even start to fill it, we knew it would have to be collaboratively edited.

    In essence, we thought-up Wikipedia. And we did nothing with it. We've both done okay for ourselves (at least he would if he didn't spend all his money motor racing (*)), but neither of us have made even a tiny dent in the universe. We were both too concerned with what could go wrong, the downsides. Whilst it's important to acknowledge these, they should not cause inertia.

    What I saw in small start-ups - two- and three-man jobs - in Cambridge before I took my leave of absence were guys twenty years younger than me who were hungry. They wanted to make that dent. They had great ideas and, more importantly, the desire to see it through.

    They would not have left the refectory and gone clubbing. They would have gone to the lab and started coding.

    Most won't make it. A couple have already fallen by the wayside, in one case due to a lack of VC. But in one case I know well, hes hungry, and he's learnt. And he still under 25, the git! Only three years out of uni and already one company under his belt!

    (*) The easy way to have a fortune in motor racing? Start with a larger fortune.

    Summat I never understood about the start-up scene in Cambridge - probably relevant to Silicon Valley or Old Street too - is how they afford to start out. Most fresh graduates need to go and earn a crust, particularly if they're living away from home. I appreciate that even as a two-man show the funding can start coming in pretty early, but how do you set up with an office, pay the rent on your flat, keep food in your mouth and so on? Cambridge is not a cheap city to live.

    I don't watch much telly but was struck that on Dragon's Den, the young'uns who've had a big idea - often for consumer product rather than tech - almost always moved back home and worked in a spare room, while their parents provided the bread and board.
    Perhaps tuition fees have inadvertently made 20-somethings more comfortable sinking into debt with the chance of a big pay off if they get it right?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    We do chain restaurants pretty well in the UK. There aren't really any equivalents to Wagamama or Pizza Express in France or Germany.

    Hmmm:

    http://www.courtepaille.com/

    http://restaurant.hippopotamus.fr/

    http://www.buffalo-grill.fr/
    None outside France.

    Pret a Manger?
    nah Pret is british and doing well in france.
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    On the debate: I expect that sentiment, and therefore the betting, might well shift substantially as a result of the debates. I haven't much of a clue in which direction, although if pushed I'd say Trump is more likely to be the winner. Either way, it's likely that the shift will be an over-reaction. I'm currently green on both with a small tilt towards Hillary. My plan is to go to bed, and in the morning to bet against whoever is regarded as 'winning'.

    I think that's a good strategy. It's quite possible that the pundits will call it wrong after the debate. They're both likely to have strong moments where they land blows, but how the wider public have perceived it won't really be known for a couple of days.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    Here's the Tory perspective on what the PLP should do to get rid of Jezza;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/26/moderate-labour-rebels-have-been-utterly-hopeless-they-should-fo/
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,898
    edited September 2016


    From my experience here in Cambridge, you're 100% right.

    Back in 1992/3, a mate and myself spent a few days sitting outside the refectory at QMW and planned an online encyclopedia. Knowing we could not even start to fill it, we knew it would have to be collaboratively edited.

    In essence, we thought-up Wikipedia. And we did nothing with it. We've both done okay for ourselves (at least he would if he didn't spend all his money motor racing (*)), but neither of us have made even a tiny dent in the universe. We were both too concerned with what could go wrong, the downsides. Whilst it's important to acknowledge these, they should not cause inertia.

    What I saw in small start-ups - two- and three-man jobs - in Cambridge before I took my leave of absence were guys twenty years younger than me who were hungry. They wanted to make that dent. They had great ideas and, more importantly, the desire to see it through.

    They would not have left the refectory and gone clubbing. They would have gone to the lab and started coding.

    Most won't make it. A couple have already fallen by the wayside, in one case due to a lack of VC. But in one case I know well, hes hungry, and he's learnt. And he still under 25, the git! Only three years out of uni and already one company under his belt!

    (*) The easy way to have a fortune in motor racing? Start with a larger fortune.

    Summat I never understood about the start-up scene in Cambridge - probably relevant to Silicon Valley or Old Street too - is how they afford to start out. Most fresh graduates need to go and earn a crust, particularly if they're living away from home. I appreciate that even as a two-man show the funding can start coming in pretty early, but how do you set up with an office, pay the rent on your flat, keep food in your mouth and so on? Cambridge is not a cheap city to live.

    I don't watch much telly but was struck that on Dragon's Den, the young'uns who've had a big idea - often for consumer product rather than tech - almost always moved back home and worked in a spare room, while their parents provided the bread and board.
    Perhaps tuition fees have inadvertently made 20-somethings more comfortable sinking into debt with the chance of a big pay off if they get it right?
    Maybe it's to do with education? Comparing my son's education to my own (at the same school), there seems to be a lot more emphasis nowadays on giving kids the confidence to believe in their abilities and persevere. In my day, it was basically all about passing exams and making the rugby team.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2016
    Re Cambridge and Startups

    The university offer fairly small amounts of seed capital (£20-50k) for students to try to spin out ideas. If its just you and your laptop, you can make that last long enough to get a prototype to take to bigger investors.
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    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Where? Newsnight?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2016


    From my experience here in Cambridge, you're 100% right.

    Back in 1992/3, a mate and myself spent a few days sitting outside the refectory at QMW and planned an online encyclopedia. Knowing we could not even start to fill it, we knew it would have to be collaboratively edited.

    In essence, we thought-up Wikipedia. And we did nothing with it. We've both done okay for ourselves (at least he would if he didn't spend all his money motor racing (*)), but neither of us have made even a tiny dent in the universe. We were both too concerned with what could go wrong, the downsides. Whilst it's important to acknowledge these, they should not cause inertia.

    What I saw in small start-ups - two- and three-man jobs - in Cambridge before I took my leave of absence were guys twenty years younger than me who were hungry. They wanted to make that dent. They had great ideas and, more importantly, the desire to see it through.

    They would not have left the refectory and gone clubbing. They would have gone to the lab and started coding.

    Most won't make it. A couple have already fallen by the wayside, in one case due to a lack of VC. But in one case I know well, hes hungry, and he's learnt. And he still under 25, the git! Only three years out of uni and already one company under his belt!

    (*) The easy way to have a fortune in motor racing? Start with a larger fortune.

    Summat I never understood about the start-up scene in Cambridge - probably relevant to Silicon Valley or Old Street too - is how they afford to start out. Most fresh graduates need to go and earn a crust, particularly if they're living away from home. I appreciate that even as a two-man show the funding can start coming in pretty early, but how do you set up with an office, pay the rent on your flat, keep food in your mouth and so on? Cambridge is not a cheap city to live.

    I don't watch much telly but was struck that on Dragon's Den, the young'uns who've had a big idea - often for consumer product rather than tech - almost always moved back home and worked in a spare room, while their parents provided the bread and board.
    Perhaps tuition fees have inadvertently made 20-somethings more comfortable sinking into debt with the chance of a big pay off if they get it right?
    I wondered that, but you still need some cash to get by! The overdraft is likely exhausted for many by then...
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    Ah, that explains why the referendum competition results were kept quiet for so long until they could be safely buried. Congrats, @MikeK.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2016
    Re Startups

    Should also say, I have a friend whose son is a recent PhD and working on his startup. By day he works in a coffee shop to pay the rent, but then works every other hour of day / night on developing his idea.
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    Re Cambridge and Startups

    The university offer fairly small amounts of seed capital (£20-50k) for students to try to spin out ideas. If its just you and your laptop, you can make that last long enough to get a prototype to take to bigger investors.

    Helpful. Thanks.

    I did wonder with the techy kids whether they kept themselves going with a bit of freelancing on the side, but it would knock a lot off your focus.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Looks scary, don't it? Merkel has, I read, said today that Germany will not bail out Deutsche Bank and DB's long-standing troubles seem to be getting worse. If it goes down it could stuff Germany politically in the EU if they rescue it (having been so brutal with Greece, Cyprus, Italy et al) or economically if they do not.

    We just have to hope that Deutsche Bank does not go down, not that I would put any money on it or lend any to Deutsche Bank.

    The big risk is, of course, that having been hung out to dry, everybody else will take the same attitude to Deutsche Bank as you. If it starts to seriously totter, then it could easily turn into the German version of Northern Rock. Except that Deutsche Bank is huge and systemically important, the largest bank in Germany and the third largest in the Eurozone. A more accurate comparison would be if our Treasury had to stop a run on Barclays. And rumour has it that Commerzbank isn't in much better shape either.

    You can easily see a situation developing in which the German government allows a crisis to develop out of a reluctance to intervene. One which, in turn, badly shakes confidence in the whole German banking system. Then it is forced to bail like Hell anyway, at which point the EU's system of one rule for the big countries, another for the little ones (remember, Cyprus has already been forced to implement depositor bail-ins) would be ruthlessly exposed, and budgetary austerity discipline in the Eurozone would probably collapse.

    Meanwhile, contagion from Germany would spread outwards into the rest of the Eurozone banking system, crippling France, and quite likely forcing the colossally-indebted Greeks and Italians into a full scale systemic recapitalisation which they cannot, presumably, afford to implement within the Euro, because of the strictures imposed on the ECB to prevent the de facto collectivisation of state debt. The ECB can't just hand over the money as a gift, and nor can the distressed governments print their own Euros. Capital controls, forced re-denomination, a return to national currencies and quite possibly a partial default on government debt could occur within weeks across Southern Europe. The Germans would then be hit by the combined effects of a tidal wave of losses through the Target 2 system, a second round of bank re-capitalisation, and a substantial appreciation in the value of the residual core Euro all at once.

    Especially given the loss of competitiveness that would result from currency appreciation, in an economy which is arguably imbalanced and excessively dependent on export earnings, a deep and prolonged recession would be likely. The country would be hamstrung, with a debt to GDP ratio well in excess of 100%. The rest of the Eurozone would've been badly shaken, the Euro project would be ruined, and the EU itself might well perish in the conflagration.

    Or am I being just a tad pessimistic?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Am watching now on Iplayer!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    Mr. T, almost as horrendous as 'very unique'.

    Indeed. Even after 25 years I am still learning new differences between US and British English. The frown discussion from last week was entirely new to me. And to my American wife (from the other side of the debate), despite her having lived in the UK and Europe as a kid. I was unaware that to Americans a frown was to do with the mouth, and she was unaware to the Brits it was about the eyebrows.
    You should come home

    Indeed, maybe I should. My sis has just moved to Cambourne/Redruth. I need to visit. And the wife and I keep promising to spend an anniversary at the scene of the crime/wedding in St. Just in Roseland/St. Mawes.
    In the end, everyone comes home?

    I know, with a kind of dreadful inevitability, that I will probably spend my twilight days in Cornwall. Looking at the oakwoods over the water in Restronguet.

    There are much worse fates.
    Indeed. Cornwall is beautiful to me whatever the weather. Overlooking Plymouth Sound to Rame Head, or viewing Feock from St Mawes, sun or storm.
    It's a genuinely lovely part of the world. And I spend my time touring the world.

    Even better - the food is now good, and sometimes fantastic (and it used to be utterly shite). There are excellent seafood restaurants all around the coast, even the pubs can rustle up a good crab sandwich. It's been invaded by the London bourgeoisie and is all the better for it.

    I'd say it's possibly the most desirable place to live in the UK outside London. Which means it ranks high in Global Nice Places.

    Almost zero crime. No terrorism. No guns. Just..... nice. Still needs more sun, though.
    The south coast of the Isle of Wight gets the most sun in the UK, closely followed by South Devon. Maybe Cornwall sticks that little bit too much into the Atlantic?
    Many times I have been sat in the sun in Bembridge, watching it rain on the mainland. Parts of the Wight have great microclimates.
    I believe there was a sanitorium for TB on the island for that reason. Can't remember where though,
    I believe it was where Ventnor botanic gardens is now. The gardens claims to grow various warm climate plants that wouldn't survive in many places else.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Am watching now on Iplayer!
    Do pass the popcorn!
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    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Am watching now on Iplayer!
    Do pass the popcorn!
    I had to get a jumbo sized pack in for the debate later on!
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    BBC are running a poll of polls for POTUS from now until Nov,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37450661
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    I have to say his "Fuck it!" drunk persona is much more appealing than his supercilious, icy cool sober day outfit.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    edited September 2016
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Am watching now on Iplayer!
    Do pass the popcorn!
    Boringly, he sobers up after his first boozy locution. Thought he was gonna totally lose it
    Yes, after clearly being drunk at the beginning he seemed to "recover" as it better as it went on.

    Obviously he wouldn't have sobered up that quickly so he must be a pretty seasoned drinker and used to covering it well when in public.

    You wouldn't have thought "Mr Smooth" would have it in him would you? ;)

    He'll need to "up" his cleansing regimen in the morning to revitalize his pores... :smiley:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    The Telegraph began investigating corruption in English football last year after receiving information that specific managers, officials and agents were giving or receiving cash payments to secure player transfers.

    Over the coming days, the Telegraph will detail a series of allegations of financial impropriety in British football which raise serious questions about the governance and influence of money within the game.

    In the video they beep out 2 names....I am going to guess will we be finding those out shortly!
    How old is the video? Pre Sam England days?
    "The meeting at the May Fair Hotel on August 19"
    Blimey. I hate reporters stitching up people. Really should be illegal to pretend you are someone else.

    Happened to me once. Geezer Edited the vid, then said they lost the cuts so could only cover my bits, completely changed the context. Still, Sam looks f*cked on this.
    Lets wait and see what comes out....
    I like Sam, I think rougues make great managers. Jose, Redknapp, Fergy etc
    Three of those four coincidentally made star appearances in the 2006 Panorama film...
    No surprise. I used to know A Club Chairman very well. The stories he used to tell me about bungs...brown paper bags with cash were a weekly event. I won't say anymore, because it might still be alive! Essentially, the game has always been run like the inside a local bookies!
    Just checked...he's dead. he once told me that a team had drawn in the FA Cup and they had a replay. The other side needed to move the date so a Chairman got £30k in used notes to do it! Then the other team said, "look mate, if this is a draw, another replay, we can't fit it in our schedule. Have another bung. Chairman then instructed a player to score an own goal. It was rife. I don't have any details at all sadly, just mild anecdotes X 1000
    From yesterday....

    Uefa had Forest-Anderlecht referee bribe evidence 'for four years'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-37453762
    Rife I tell you. And Anderlecht were clearly not alone in this.
    Forest should be allowed a third star on their shirts. We wuz robbed!
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    Alistair said:
    Nathan DeSai*...a lawyer who apparently had some big bust up with the law firm he worked at.

    * That is an Indian name I believe.
    Perhaps his swastikas were prototype rather than vulgar, arriviste Nazi ones.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Former Sunday Times editor Harold Evans was interviewed on Radio 4's The World Tonight; he was in the US, talking about the presidential debate. I must admit I didn't realise he was still alive. He's 88.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    edited September 2016
    They can't let a duffer like El Gord be the last Labour PM? At least Tony won (three) elections!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Switch over to the BBC News Channel to watch it again. 130 on Freeview.
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    Drunk Chuka sounded quite like Ken Livingstone.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    GIN1138 said:

    They can't let a duffer like El Gord be the last Labour PM? At least Tony won (three) elections!
    After cursing everything he touched. How apt that Gordon should have enabled labour to die itself as his parting curse.
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    SeanT said:

    One deeply surprising thing is how shit these Corbynite Labourites are: at basic public speaking.

    Corbyn and McDonnell and the rest have spent their entire lives on podiums, hectoring and enthusing the faithful. This is surely what they DO, above all else.

    But put them on a national stage and they stammer and waffle, and stutter and repeat. Dreadful.

    Richard Burgon. He went to a good uni and yet has to concentrate just to stand up.
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    I have to say his "Fuck it!" drunk persona is much more appealing than his supercilious, icy cool sober day outfit.
    Yes. I could possibly vote for "drunk but fuck-it New Labour".

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh lordy. Chuka Umunna is drunk and doesn't care. This is the death rattle

    Am watching now on Iplayer!
    Do pass the popcorn!
    I had to get a jumbo sized pack in for the debate later on!
    I'm sick and tired of popcorn! :lol:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    "Re-Animator" on the Horror Channel.

    Maybe Labour could do with the bright yellow goo!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Hillary just tweeted " here are 35 questions Trump still needs to answer"

    Fail. 35?!? Lack of focus or what?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    I will be glad when this thread with its reloading spreadsheet with hundreds of blank lines is gone....
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    IanB2 said:

    I will be glad when this thread with its reloading spreadsheet with hundreds of blank lines is gone....

    Just as long as it doesn't list all of Hillary's questions.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    PlatoSaid said:

    Hillary just tweeted " here are 35 questions Trump still needs to answer"

    Fail. 35?!? Lack of focus or what?

    I don't think thats her doing the tweeting - Hillary Clinton seems to be an entire industry !
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    Pennsylvania Poll: @HillaryClinton barely leads @realDonaldTrump 45% to 44%. #debatenight https://t.co/7DX4DwJBPA
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Hillary just tweeted " here are 35 questions Trump still needs to answer"

    Fail. 35?!? Lack of focus or what?

    I don't think thats her doing the tweeting - Hillary Clinton seems to be an entire industry !
    Tweeting...Clinton...she claims she can't even manage more than one email account, whats the chance of knowing her # from her @ sign?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tennessee GOP
    BREAKING
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    I see MNF is on at the same time as the debate.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    My god, McDonnell's speech is ghastly.

    Highlights included a full spectrum assault on property rights and a return to 1970s trade union strife. McDonnell's predecessor as Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie, suggested that his pledge for half a trillion pounds of extra spending would also necessitate a doubling of income tax and VAT, presumably leading to immediate economic ruin.

    Meanwhile, out in the real world, more encouraging signs that his boss's re-election is less than universally welcome:

    http://bcove.me/qbzbg5pi

    If the polling evidence that Michael Crick references before his vox pops is anywhere near accurate, then something like half of Labour's Brexit backers, i.e. one-sixth of its entire vote, intend to abandon ship. That would take Labour's GE vote share down from 30% to 25% at once. We can but hope.

    As things stand I'd say Labour is headed for a general election result of 20-25%. Very very close to extinction.
    I'm presently working on the assumption that they'll hold on to at least 25% - or, at any rate, not dip very much below it. There are too many people for whom the Corbyn platform is genuinely appealing, too many remaining dependent and habit voters, and the Labour brand itself is too strong, for anything other than a gradual slide into the darkness. Unless there is a major split in the party, in which case who knows?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,746
    AndyJS said:

    Former Sunday Times editor Harold Evans was interviewed on Radio 4's The World Tonight; he was in the US, talking about the presidential debate. I must admit I didn't realise he was still alive. He's 88.

    If anybody's interested, it's here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07w5xyh
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    edited September 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Hillary just tweeted " here are 35 questions Trump still needs to answer"

    Fail. 35?!? Lack of focus or what?

    I don't think thats her doing the tweeting - Hillary Clinton seems to be an entire industry !
    Tweeting...Clinton...she claims she can't even manage more than one email account, whats the chance of knowing her # from her @ sign?
    The account that her campaign has been using to tweet 'fact checks' and videos has the earth-shattering follower count of almost 60k to Trump's 11.7m.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,746

    I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....

    Oh, [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted].... [redacted]
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Benghazi survivor Mark Geist confirmed to be on Trump's guest list tonight.

    #Debates2016 #debatenight https://t.co/uPrHnRbgXe
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited September 2016

    I see MNF is on at the same time as the debate.

    Falcons vs Saints, both should be easy holds for Trump.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    viewcode said:

    I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....

    Oh, [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted].... [redacted]
    Ouch.

    She's still favourite, but not by much.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,437

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    My god, McDonnell's speech is ghastly.

    Highlights included a full spectrum assault on property rights and a return to 1970s trade union strife. McDonnell's predecessor as Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie, suggested that his pledge for half a trillion pounds of extra spending would also necessitate a doubling of income tax and VAT, presumably leading to immediate economic ruin.

    Meanwhile, out in the real world, more encouraging signs that his boss's re-election is less than universally welcome:

    http://bcove.me/qbzbg5pi

    If the polling evidence that Michael Crick references before his vox pops is anywhere near accurate, then something like half of Labour's Brexit backers, i.e. one-sixth of its entire vote, intend to abandon ship. That would take Labour's GE vote share down from 30% to 25% at once. We can but hope.

    As things stand I'd say Labour is headed for a general election result of 20-25%. Very very close to extinction.
    I'm presently working on the assumption that they'll hold on to at least 25% - or, at any rate, not dip very much below it. There are too many people for whom the Corbyn platform is genuinely appealing, too many remaining dependent and habit voters, and the Labour brand itself is too strong, for anything other than a gradual slide into the darkness. Unless there is a major split in the party, in which case who knows?
    I don't think there's too many for whom Corbynism is genuinely appealing (maybe 1.5m voters, max?). But there are a lot of habit voters - a lot who will always vote Labour because most seats are two-way fights and they prefer a Labour party that they no longer understand to a conservative party that they'll never vote for. So 25% looks about right as a floor. But unless some form of sanity returns it will also be a ceiling.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    Poll: 73% of registered voters plan to watch tonight's debate between Trump and Clinton. #debates #debatenight https://t.co/myIKOvP0hD
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bloomberg poll

    Poll: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton 43% to 41%. #debatenight #Debates2016 https://t.co/RIILsFiz4b
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bloomberg poll

    Poll: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton 43% to 41%. #debatenight #Debates2016 https://t.co/RIILsFiz4b

    What was your Tennessee GOP post supposed to say? It looks like the link was lost.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Hillary just tweeted " here are 35 questions Trump still needs to answer"

    Fail. 35?!? Lack of focus or what?

    I don't think thats her doing the tweeting - Hillary Clinton seems to be an entire industry !
    Indeed not. If it had been Hillary, it would have been 350 questions ... ;)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bloomberg poll

    Poll: @realDonaldTrump leads @HillaryClinton 43% to 41%. #debatenight #Debates2016 https://t.co/RIILsFiz4b

    What was your Tennessee GOP post supposed to say? It looks like the link was lost.
    I posted the other bit again when I noticed!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    (*) The easy way to have a fortune in motor racing? Start with a larger fortune.

    The way to make a small fortune in horses is to start with a big one.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    I think the problem is more the "blue lives matter" text written on it.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    For anyone who doesn't get US election but afraid to ask

    The Fix
    How to explain the 2016 election to someone who just tuned in https://t.co/1saJBOPLF5 https://t.co/gqcUC5mSIg
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    PPP
    #NEW UPI/CVOTER Polls:

    #Colorado:
    Clinton 49% (+4)
    Trump 45%

    #Michigan:
    Clinton 50% (+4)
    Trump 46%

    #Wisconsin:
    Clinton 50% (+4)
    Trump 46%
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2016
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    I think the problem is more the "blue lives matter" text written on it.
    Smurf-ist....
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,746
    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....

    Oh, [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted].... [redacted]
    Ouch.

    She's still favourite, but not by much.
    Isn't there a rule-of-thumb that the one ahead after the debates goes on to win?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pew Research
    Profile of Democratic voters:
    1992:
    76% white
    17% black,
    6% Hispanic.

    2016:
    57% white
    21% black
    12% Hispanic
    https://t.co/BSJ0mEf3Rv
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    I think the problem is more the "blue lives matter" text written on it.
    Smurf-ist....
    Can't stand the buggers
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    Tennessee GOP
    BREAKING

    I knew the GOP had problems but I didn't think they'd break yet.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    #NEW UPI/CVOTER Polls:

    #Virginia:
    Trump 50% (+4)
    Clinton 46%

    #Florida:
    Trump 48% (+2)
    Clinton 46%

    #Iowa:
    Trump 49% (+2)
    Clinton 47%
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    #NEW UPI/CVOTER Polls

    North Carolina:
    Trump 49 (+3)
    Clinton 46

    #Ohio
    Trump 49 (+1)
    Clinton 48

    #Pennsylvania:
    Trump 48 (+1)
    Clinton 47
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    corporeal said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Tennessee GOP
    BREAKING

    I knew the GOP had problems but I didn't think they'd break yet.
    We've just got wind of it.... ;)
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    PlatoSaid said:

    #NEW UPI/CVOTER Polls
    #Pennsylvania:
    Trump 48 (+1)
    Clinton 47

    Choo choo.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    #NEW @UPI Electoral Map
    (270 EV Needed):

    Trump 292
    Clinton 246

    https://t.co/zuknsK0iVb https://t.co/gB19EF0ITp
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    The Sky news stream works in the US.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2016
    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    Google / Youtube has an "official" live stream....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=855Am6ovK7s
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    Hey? Upsetting people with blue skin?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    The Sky news stream works in the US.
    I think they have very recently disabled it in the US
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2016
    viewcode said:

    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....

    Oh, [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted].... [redacted]
    Ouch.

    She's still favourite, but not by much.
    Isn't there a rule-of-thumb that the one ahead after the debates goes on to win?
    I think the general rule is that everyone always finds reasons to justify why this time it's going to be different - and the polls are going to shift - and that very rarely happens.

    So yeah, whoever is ahead in the polls in a week will probably win.

    If it's clinton +5 she'll be short odds.

    If it's trump +5, he'll almost certainly be value - expect lots of talk about clinton's superior ground game.

    FWIW, I'm not sure the polls will shift that much.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    AndyJS said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    Hey? Upsetting people with blue skin?
    Could be misconstrued as mockery.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    The Sky news stream works in the US.
    also c-span.org.

    Screw cable - get satellite. It's cheaper, better picture, and customer service is fantastic - unlike cable they know you have a choice. Unless you live in an apartment of course...
  • Options
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Dear me


    Walmart is apologizing for refusing to make a police officer’s retirement cake last week after an employee told the cop’s daughter that her “thin blue line” cake design might be considered racist.

    Read more here: http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article104188001.html#storylink=cpy

    I think the problem is more the "blue lives matter" text written on it.
    She should have written "Tory lives matter" :lol:
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Alternative feed

    Entertainment Weekly
    Want to watch #debatenight, but don't have a TV? Here's how you can tune in: https://t.co/2K4jo84H9k
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    The Sky news stream works in the US.
    also c-span.org.

    Screw cable - get satellite. It's cheaper, better picture, and customer service is fantastic - unlike cable they know you have a choice. Unless you live in an apartment of course...
    Or I could be a cheap bastard and rely on the internet ;)
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    I know of somebody who has $100k on Clinton....

    Oh, [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], [redacted].... [redacted]
    Ouch.

    She's still favourite, but not by much.
    Isn't there a rule-of-thumb that the one ahead after the debates goes on to win?
    I think the general rule is that everyone always finds reasons to justify why this time it's going to be different - and the polls are going to shift - and that very rarely happens.

    So yeah, whoever is ahead in the polls in a week will probably win.

    If it's clinton +5 she'll be short odds.

    If it's trump +5, he'll be valueexpect lots of talk about clinton's superior ground game.
    Remember in 2012 Romney absolutely destroyed Obama in the first debate and won big time. The rest is history.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    also a stream here

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7FRhxIhD5Y

    Just watch it get taken down the second the debate starts.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Scary funny

    Paddy Power
    I'M SO READY. #debatenight https://t.co/OKrbGexXKW
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Even though I live here, I don't have cable. Where are people watching the debate online?

    The Sky news stream works in the US.
    also c-span.org.

    Screw cable - get satellite. It's cheaper, better picture, and customer service is fantastic - unlike cable they know you have a choice. Unless you live in an apartment of course...
    Or I could be a cheap bastard and rely on the internet ;)
    That particular option had eluded me ;)
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Why do they do this? It never ends well :lol:

    PHOTOS: Obama dressed for the White House Tribal Nations Conference https://t.co/TZzTAg8MRR https://t.co/5pLOorfMl0
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Nice trivia

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/26/so-why-are-presidential-debates-moderated-by-journalists-anyway/?postshare=4861474935112157&tid=ss_tw

    Jill Lepore delivered a brief history lesson on the subject in the New Yorker this week: "The networks wanted Nixon and Kennedy to question each other; both men insisted on taking questions from a panel of reporters, one from each network, a format that is more generally known as a parallel press conference."

    According to a Washington Post report on Sept. 1, 1960, "the networks, led by NBC's board chairman, Robert W. Sarnoff, proposed the two candidates join in a 'great debate' on the air." By "great debate," Sarnoff meant a head-to-head, unmoderated affair loosely rooted in the Lincoln-Douglas tradition. In fact, the word "debate," as it was understood at the time, meant that no moderator would be involved. Thus The Post referred to the first Kennedy-Nixon session as a "discussion of issues" or a "TV engagement."
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Monday Night Football about to get underway - both teams held hands on the field.
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    Tim_B said:

    Monday Night Football about to get underway - both teams held hands on the field.

    Not sure we will be seeing the same from the POTUS candidates this evening....
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I need 5 TVs

    .@FrankLuntz's focus group is warming up! You'll hear from the voters in 10 only on CBSN. Watch: https://t.co/FVJKcJcTNl #CBSNreax #debates https://t.co/hDpxjyOnmL
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    PlatoSaid said:

    I need 5 TVs

    .@FrankLuntz's focus group is warming up! You'll hear from the voters in 10 only on CBSN. Watch: https://t.co/FVJKcJcTNl #CBSNreax #debates https://t.co/hDpxjyOnmL

    I think it might go something like this....

    BOOOO....BOOOO...LIAR....LIAR....BOOOO...BOOOO...

    I expect to see the "worm" digging for the centre of the earth.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    CNN going heavy on Trump being unprepared. Doing the expectations management for him?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Clinton just entered the building unaided. :o
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RobD said:

    also a stream here

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7FRhxIhD5Y

    Just watch it get taken down the second the debate starts.

    Facebook are streaming it live.

    https://www.facebook.com/elections/us2016
  • Options
    RobD said:

    CNN going heavy on Trump being unprepared. Doing the expectations management for him?

    Apparently he didn't turn up to the "practice" time they were allowed yesterday.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016

    RobD said:

    CNN going heavy on Trump being unprepared. Doing the expectations management for him?

    Apparently he didn't turn up to the "practice" time they were allowed yesterday.
    I find myself so cynical about the MSM says these days - I discount 90% as spin or editorialising.
This discussion has been closed.