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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after con

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after convincing first debate performance

“. Clinton was particularly effective when needling him on not releasing his tax returns, saying, “Why won’t he release his tax returns? Maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is.”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,576
    First*

    * in Trump's version of reality
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    Third!
  • Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?
  • Morning all.

    Glad I opted for a good night’s sleep – the Clinton/Trump face-off sounded utterly dire. :lol:
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    he kept sniffing
  • Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited September 2016
    Trump sounds worse than the friend of my father's who told me that he became a pharmacist "because there's a law against robbing banks".
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,183
    Where's Plato to tell us that Trump dominated?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Freggles said:

    Where's Plato to tell us that Trump dominated?

    on twitter bubbleland.
  • Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    He was sniffing a lot (see 6:32) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-us-2016-35404043
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
    the cnn one with clinton 35 ahead is generally being cited as the gold standard reaction one.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    Where's Plato to tell us that Trump dominated?

    Or that there is a problem with Hillary's eyes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    619 said:

    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
    the cnn one with clinton 35 ahead is generally being cited as the gold standard reaction one.
    About the same lead as Romney in 2012? :p
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    the bit on trump's tax returns, with clinton saying he has something to hide and trump saying its smart not to pay taxes, could be devastating for him
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,576
    RobD said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
    You sure it's not pneumonia?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
    You sure it's not pneumonia?
    Pretty sure we just saw rapid-onset Parkinson's.
  • She was considerably more presidential than he was. It was quite stark. But she's not liked, is the ultimate establishment candidate and it's an odd year.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    RobD said:

    619 said:

    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
    the cnn one with clinton 35 ahead is generally being cited as the gold standard reaction one.
    About the same lead as Romney in 2012? :p
    and the obama/mccain gap, and the bush/clinton one

    and romney won that first debate. no one disputes that
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
    You sure it's not pneumonia?
    dunno. sounds fatal to me
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
    the cnn one with clinton 35 ahead is generally being cited as the gold standard reaction one.
    About the same lead as Romney in 2012? :p
    and the obama/mccain gap, and the bush/clinton one

    and romney won that first debate. no one disputes that
    Yeah, but it sure didn't help him win the election.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863
    Based on what I've read so far, this sounds like a score draw, and the snap verdicts amongst markets and the commentariat awarding it to Hillary to be wishful thinking. On the one hand, Trump rambled and ranted, and Hillary landed blows on issues such as his tax affairs. On the other, Hillary did not have an adequate response to Trump's criticisms e.g. on globalisation and the foreign policy controversies of the Obama era, and she played identity politics over the issue of civil disorder in the cities - talking a lot about race relations and very little about upholding security. No prizes for guessing which is the greater priority for most voters.

    Still, if there's a meaningful and consistent move towards Hillary in the polls over the next few days then this would be a reasonable indication that I'm mistaken. We shall see what transpires.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Having had a quick skim of the previous thread I am glad I went to bed. That said Betfair looks a massive over reaction to me. It is quite some time since a debate significantly swung an election, most end up tedious draws where both sides turn out their talking points and avoid anything like an original thought.

    My guess is that the polling will continue to show a very close race where Trump has opened up more possible routes to 270 than once thought possible. He is not favourite for any of those routes but they are all close and he only needs one.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Having mulled over, I'm giving it to Hillary by a point - but it's 5.5 vs 4.5

    Trump started well, then reacted to bait after much needling

    The moderator was terrible as soon as he started interventions and asking loaded questions only to Trump.

    Just makes the whole thing pointless and I don't care to hear arguments between the moderator and one candidate.

    Hillary missteps for me were stop and frisk, and her manner. Trump bragging and rambling - he didn't land an effective blow, he was defensive and failed to follow a consistent line of attack through.

    IIRC the worm didn't respond to hints at Hillary stamina which surprised me, but she did seem chipper.
  • 619 said:

    nunu said:

    Its Clegg versus Farage all over again.

    The received view from meeja experts was that Clegg had walked it - until they discovered what the great unwashed thought.

    u are basing this on? NCertainly not the snap polls. to be fair i think it's insulting to compare Farrage to trump, Nigel is waaaay better.
    You seen mike ks post re Time?

    Mind you a Farage vs Hillary debate would have been worth staying up for!
    the cnn one with clinton 35 ahead is generally being cited as the gold standard reaction one.
    We will see
  • I'm following Richard Nabavi's strategy of laying the perceived winner.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    PlatoSaid said:



    IIRC the worm didn't respond to hints at Hillary stamina which surprised me, but she did seem chipper.

    She did seem a bit slow at times, but I suspect that was intentional to appear calm relative to Trump!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Freggles said:

    Where's Plato to tell us that Trump dominated?

    Have I ever taken your name in vain? No. If you would like me to, I'll oblige.
  • 619 said:

    the bit on trump's tax returns, with clinton saying he has something to hide and trump saying its smart not to pay taxes, could be devastating for him

    "You guys will pay for my wall - I'm smart I don't pay taxes" D Trump
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    peter_from_putney said:
    MikeK said:
    RobD said:
    MikeK said:
    Good morning all. I didn't watch the debate, but TIME, no friend of Trump says he won it:
    twitter.com/TheDonaldNews/status/780614105228976128

    Internet polls are easy to game, unfortunately.

    May be, but if it had gone the other way, would you be pleased or sorry?

    Mike - off topic - but many congratulations on having finally being confirmed as the winner of the June Referendum competition. Take care to invest your Wm. Hill £100 prize bet wisely. There must have been moments over the past THREE MONTHS when you wondered whether you ever even be confirmed as the winner. All rather odd that, I had naively imagined that this "nojam" thingy wondrously spewed out the winner of such competitions in a couple of nanoseconds, but seemingly I was wrong!

    I must be totally naive as I didn't know, or forgot, about the Wm. Hill £100 prize for first place. How do I collect it?
  • WHY DOES HILLARY CLINTON ALWAYS SHOUT
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,111
    Well, that's my cash out value more than doubled. I hope you all followed my wise advice and lumped on Hilary pre debate.

    Of course, I know nothing about American politics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.
  • WHY DOES HILLARY CLINTON ALWAYS SHOUT

    It takes that to get Bills attention?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,576
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
    You sure it's not pneumonia?
    Pretty sure we just saw rapid-onset Parkinson's.
    Mmh. His eyes did look kinda funny
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    Lots of sniffing :p
    You sure it's not pneumonia?
    Pretty sure we just saw rapid-onset Parkinson's.
    Mmh. His eyes did look kinda funny
    Wrong.


    Sorry.. couldn't resist :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    DavidL said:

    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.

    Suspect he'll be more keen on prep for the next one!
  • Saw the first half - Clinton clearly better prepared and had a quite devastating dissection of Trump's refusal to publish his tax return - which Trump compounded with his own comment about it being smart not to pay taxes......whether it will have shifted many voters, time will tell - but I'm not sure Trump's 'I'm a successful businessman so I'll be a successful President' is quite the killer idea he thinks it is.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.

    Suspect he'll be more keen on prep for the next one!
    I don't think Trump listens to advice.
  • Just caught up with the debate.

    Hillary Clinton = Julius Caesar

    The Donald = Hannibal (I mean like Hannibal, Trump got slaughtered by the first decent opponent he faced.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.

    Suspect he'll be more keen on prep for the next one!
    I don't think Trump listens to advice.
    He listens to his lawyers regarding his tax returns.. apparently ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526

    Just caught up with the debate.

    Hillary Clinton = Julius Caesar

    The Donald = Hannibal (I mean like Hannibal, Trump got slaughtered by the first decent opponent he faced.)

    Who is Brutus?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900
    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|
  • nunu said:

    Didn't see it, suspect it will make no difference, but our work Twitter feed is full of references to Trump and cocaine. Anyone know what that's about?

    he kept sniffing
    Is that why that Michael Deacon column got taken down?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,675
    RobD said:

    Just caught up with the debate.

    Hillary Clinton = Julius Caesar

    The Donald = Hannibal (I mean like Hannibal, Trump got slaughtered by the first decent opponent he faced.)

    Who is Brutus?
    Michael Gove!
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.

    Suspect he'll be more keen on prep for the next one!
    I don't think Trump listens to advice.
    Fixed it for ya.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    I think he said 'wrong' four times in a row during one of her responses, and it looked bad.
  • tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Dave said that we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences.

    For me the second biggest tragedy of Brexit is that Michael Gove is no longer Justice Secretary and going to implement those excellent prison and sentencing reforms he was planning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    I am more troubled by the performance against Slovakia than dodgy deals.

    Winning the next internationals will settle things. Time to drop Rooney for England too.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    DavidL said:

    Having said that the commentary on Fox is full of all the zingers that Trump should have landed that would have pinned Clinton. When a side keeps talking about what their candidate should have said they clearly and unequivocally lost.

    yeah. the trump team are very much acting like they lost the debate. clintons already released videos on trumps taxes and sexism based on his debate performances
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Having mulled over, I'm giving it to Hillary by a point - but it's 5.5 vs 4.5

    Trump started well, then reacted to bait after much needling

    The moderator was terrible as soon as he started interventions and asking loaded questions only to Trump.

    Just makes the whole thing pointless and I don't care to hear arguments between the moderator and one candidate.

    Hillary missteps for me were stop and frisk, and her manner. Trump bragging and rambling - he didn't land an effective blow, he was defensive and failed to follow a consistent line of attack through.

    IIRC the worm didn't respond to hints at Hillary stamina which surprised me, but she did seem chipper.

    I listened on the radio, which I know isn't recommended for these things. The trump sniffing was noticeable, particularly towards the beginning. She sounded composed and professional but suffered from dullness in places. He sounded rambling and less polished than I might have expected; his answers to some of the very-predictable moderator questions sounded as if he hadn't thought about the issue much at all. And for someone who is supposed to be populist it didn't sound to me as if his tax cuts for rich business would go down well at all, although I know America can see such things differently. Hilary handled the trump income tax question well. Trump was asked to defend himself and within a minute is talking about airports in Dubai.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    On taxes, you reckon? I certainly think that someone who has a lot of money is more likely to have respect over there and they are less ashamed of it, but I still think they won't like Trump not paying his taxes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    They were both awful. I reckon if the Queen stepped in and offered to put Prince William in as a Governor-General for four years, we'd have a reasonable chance of getting that past the American voters...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Also surprised that Clinton often emerges as the combative one and Trump the defensive one, when I was anticipating the opposite.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,157

    Just caught up with the debate.

    Hillary Clinton = Julius Caesar

    How dare you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,456
    My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.

    I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
  • tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    On taxes, you reckon? I certainly think that someone who has a lot of money is more likely to have respect over there and they are less ashamed of it, but I still think they won't like Trump not paying his taxes.
    Or thinking you're not smart if you do pay taxes....
  • Missed the debate. It sounds as though I didn't miss much.

    But tonight, in a little under 12 hours, the unmissable event:
    http://www.spacex.com/mars

    Yes, I'm excited.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    The response of the trump team, as reported, makes me, someone who did not watch, presume he came off second best. Although on the basis winning a single debate doesn't matter all that much, playing the underdog and encouraging a sense of grievance re the moderation, may be about all they wanted from this one, if no knockout blow to Clinton could be had?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Dave said that we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences.

    For me the second biggest tragedy of Brexit is that Michael Gove is no longer Justice Secretary and going to implement those excellent prison and sentencing reforms he was planning.
    I'd agree with that (& I think he was a pretty awful Education Secretary). His replacement at Justice appears hopeless.

    As far as the US is concerned, it ought to be remembered that they incarcerate around four times as many people as we (and most of the rest of the world) do, as a percentage of population.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153

    They were both awful. I reckon if the Queen stepped in and offered to put Prince William in as a Governor-General for four years, we'd have a reasonable chance of getting that past the American voters...

    I don't know about you, but the prospect of a Corbyn/May debate tempers my sense of superiority...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Dave said that we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences.

    For me the second biggest tragedy of Brexit is that Michael Gove is no longer Justice Secretary and going to implement those excellent prison and sentencing reforms he was planning.
    I'd agree with that (& I think he was a pretty awful Education Secretary). His replacement at Justice appears hopeless.

    As far as the US is concerned, it ought to be remembered that they incarcerate around four times as many people as we (and most of the rest of the world) do, as a percentage of population.
    Trump's answer to what he would do to heal the race divide in the US was a classic. He said law and order, more police, crack down on immigrants, stop and frisk (search), zero tolerance. Clearly an answer that will play well with a certain demographic, but not really an answer to the question and a disaster in terms of trying to reach out from his base.
  • Didn't watch it. But have read a couple of commentary feeds and seen clips. On paper you'd say Hillary walked it. Then again Gore walked it against Bush on paper, but the voters disagreed.

    Trump came across as a vain narcissistic buffoon. Clinton as a self-satisfied smugbot promising continuity Obama. So how the debate was in reality as opposed to on paper will come down to a simple question- are you happy? If things are broadly ok then Clinton looked presidential and we carry on as normal, Trump is batshit crazy obviously.

    But we know that across vast swathes of middle America things aren't ok and people are deeply unhappy. And rambling and self-obsessed as he may have appeared Trump spoke to those people, to their fears and distrust of the system, and offered a few simple solutions. He came across as angry. But a lot of voters are angry.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    On taxes, you reckon? I certainly think that someone who has a lot of money is more likely to have respect over there and they are less ashamed of it, but I still think they won't like Trump not paying his taxes.
    I think it's an attitude thing, I get the impression that most don't expect Trump to be some moral prissy guy. He's wheeler dealer territory saying it's legal to do what I do, that's smart business.

    Hillary talks in endless isms. And never the twain shall meet.

    I flinched when Romney tried being all common man and fake empathising. It's much harder to shame Trump using this form of attack. It's like huffing about political correctness and Jeremy Clarkson.
  • They were both awful. I reckon if the Queen stepped in and offered to put Prince William in as a Governor-General for four years, we'd have a reasonable chance of getting that past the American voters...

    They were both awful but Hillary was awful within the normal bounds of awful politicians, whereas Trump was... well, when asked about cyber-security, he said his son was good with computers.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    On taxes, you reckon? I certainly think that someone who has a lot of money is more likely to have respect over there and they are less ashamed of it, but I still think they won't like Trump not paying his taxes.
    I think it's an attitude thing, I get the impression that most don't expect Trump to be some moral prissy guy. He's wheeler dealer territory saying it's legal to do what I do, that's smart business.

    Hillary talks in endless isms. And never the twain shall meet.

    I flinched when Romney tried being all common man and fake empathising. It's much harder to shame Trump using this form of attack. It's like huffing about political correctness and Jeremy Clarkson.
    Both candidates are fairly ghastly, however, trying to second guess what Americans think from this side of the pond is always a mistake imho. For a start, Money, Taxes and Success are not the dirty words in the US as they are here.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.

    I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16

    I'd compare them to Thornberry vs Sugar.

    Other than wearing rosettes, there's nothing attractive about either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.

    I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16

    I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    I thought that point was well made. 20trillion in debt and crumbling infrastructure. And failed wars. And lowish growth. And jobs going.

    If you're disenchanted - there's a lot of nodding along territory there
  • I never watch debates. It clouds your mind.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    edited September 2016
    I see Mr Palmer of this parish thinks that the answer to Labour's travails is to focus on a stronger policy on animal welfare:

    http://labourlist.org/2016/09/nick-palmer-forget-the-soap-opera-lets-get-back-to-policy-starting-with-animal-welfare/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    I never watch debates. It clouds your mind.

    Like these expert thingies? Welcome aboard.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.

    well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    IanB2 said:

    I see Mr Palmer of this parish thinks that the answer to Labour's travails is to focus on a stronger policy on animal welfare:

    http://labourlist.org/2016/09/nick-palmer-forget-the-soap-opera-lets-get-back-to-policy-starting-with-animal-welfare/

    he said on here that he was going back to Nottingham.. Is he going to stand against the fragrant Ms Soubry again?
  • DavidL said:

    I never watch debates. It clouds your mind.

    Like these expert thingies? Welcome aboard.
    No, not like these expert thingies.

    Debate watching is an exercise in confirmation bias. Far better to weigh the reactions to them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&q=/m/0d06m5,/m/0cqt90,/m/01tqr5,/m/05st_r

    Google trends : Trump interest ahead of Clinton, except for shortly after her wobble

    Trump trending ahead in every state.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    I see Sam Allardyce is back in the news again.. New England Manager betting ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900

    DavidL said:

    I never watch debates. It clouds your mind.

    Like these expert thingies? Welcome aboard.
    No, not like these expert thingies.

    Debate watching is an exercise in confirmation bias. Far better to weigh the reactions to them.
    True, but you need to pay attention to the reaction in the US, not what's said over here.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!

    I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.

    BTW, do we need a new England Manager? :|

    Actually I can imagine someone saying that too many minor offenders go to jail. If it was combined with too many serious offenders get released too soon I would agree.

    I think the biggest difference is the taxes thing. In the UK most people think paying a fair share of taxes to support the society you live in is not just a legal requirement but a moral imperative. In America I am not so sure. Trump's response that if he had paid taxes they would just have been wasted too seems to have a lot more resonance.
    On taxes, you reckon? I certainly think that someone who has a lot of money is more likely to have respect over there and they are less ashamed of it, but I still think they won't like Trump not paying his taxes.
    I think it's an attitude thing, I get the impression that most don't expect Trump to be some moral prissy guy. He's wheeler dealer territory saying it's legal to do what I do, that's smart business.

    Hillary talks in endless isms. And never the twain shall meet.

    I flinched when Romney tried being all common man and fake empathising. It's much harder to shame Trump using this form of attack. It's like huffing about political correctness and Jeremy Clarkson.
    Both candidates are fairly ghastly, however, trying to second guess what Americans think from this side of the pond is always a mistake imho. For a start, Money, Taxes and Success are not the dirty words in the US as they are here.
    I'd agree with you on Money and Success. But most Americans would find out tax rates appallingly high.
  • Pulpstar said:

    https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&q=/m/0d06m5,/m/0cqt90,/m/01tqr5,/m/05st_r

    Google trends : Trump interest ahead of Clinton, except for shortly after her wobble

    Trump trending ahead in every state.

    Clinton’s instant rebuttal team will be along in a sec to correct you. :lol:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&q=/m/0d06m5,/m/0cqt90,/m/01tqr5,/m/05st_r

    Google trends : Trump interest ahead of Clinton, except for shortly after her wobble

    Trump trending ahead in every state.

    But what is the question.

    Trump insanity?

    Trump taxes?

    Trump sniffing?
  • DavidL said:

    My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.

    I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16

    I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
    Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    This is Brexit the second.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,111
    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.

    Also ppp polls

  • Off topic. Labour MPs are buggered aren't they?

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    We've two more of these, urgh.

    43 days to go.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,936

    Off topic. Labour MPs are buggered aren't they?

    As they say in America before a primary, x or y is out of step with their constituents.

    On Topic, I hope this is the beginning of the end for Trump. The man's a clear and present danger, no matter what you think of Clinton.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Off topic. Labour MPs are buggered aren't they?

    Yes they are.

    Labour voters too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.

    Also ppp polls

    Remember populus.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,936
    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.

    Twitter noise does not equal votes.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    This is Brexit the second.

    I think so. I thought Trump's play for black voters again was also interesting. He's clearly following a line here. It keeps coming up.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,933

    Just caught up with the debate.

    Hillary Clinton = Julius Caesar

    Dead?

    Their history is semi-fictional?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,172

    I see Sam Allardyce is back in the news again.. New England Manager betting ?

    It depends if the FA have managed to get a scandal clause in his contract, or if it will cost them millions to sack him.

    If they haven't then someone very senior at Lancaster Gate needs to fall on his sword.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary only ahead in the CNN poll.

    Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.

    Twitter noise does not equal votes.
    Recent polling suggests Trumpers are keener to vote, that could do it again.
This discussion has been closed.