Mr. F43, that signifies a divide between the NATO and the EU. We're clearly on the NATO side.
Also, I don't care whether the Americans are in favour or not.
It's a case of both/and versus either/or. I guess the French, the Germans and the Americans - at least the Obama regime think it's the first. We think it's the second.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
"My guess is that Trump will learn from what’s happened and be better prepared next time"
I wouldn't bank on that. Hillary did absolutely nothing that couldn't have reasonably been predicted. She didn't have any zinging one-liners and Goddard's description of her as "controlled and methodical" is right. Trump should have been prepared for what came at him; he wasn't.
That suggests either that he doesn't want to prepare or that he's incapable of using such preparation in an organised way. Either way, it suggests he's unlikely to be much better in the other debates. With Obama four years ago, we knew that he could debate effectively and whether through complacence or just an off-day, underperformed; with Trump, we don't know that he can handle a sustained one-to-one over 90 minutes - he never had to during the primaries, mostly working off short bursts of abuse and soundbites on a stage with at least four contenders and for some while, several more.
Trump has not varied his campaigning style much since day one (and nor has he had to really: it's got him a long way and far further than almost all experts expected). He's far from stupid and will know that it didn't go all that well. but he's also vain, egotistical and easily needled. Even if he does prepare better next time, he'll still go off-piste and he'll still pay the price - unless he can score a knockout. And he just might.
The next debate is the 9th, with Town Hall Meeting style. Questions from the audience may play better for Trump, or much worse!
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Don't be silly, he was exactly the same during GE 2015, his firm helped produce the accurate Crosby Textor polls for the Tories, ditto at GE2010.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an wexception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
I'm tempted to say a 'Party is not for Xmas, it's for life.'
Well done @NickPalmer. It's obviously something he believes in passionately, makes for good policy and a great deal of it can probably be achieved on a cross party basis from opposition.
He's also completely right that Labour need to start talking about what they want to achieve, rather than the internal squabbles that have characterised the party since May 2015.
He may be right, but it isn't going to happen. Everything Labour do will be overshadowed by infighting. Its inevitable when there are two such diametrically opposed sides.
"My guess is that Trump will learn from what’s happened and be better prepared next time"
I wouldn't bank on that. Hillary did absolutely nothing that couldn't have reasonably been predicted. She didn't have any zinging one-liners and Goddard's description of her as "controlled and methodical" is right. Trump should have been prepared for what came at him; he wasn't.
That suggests either that he doesn't want to prepare or that he's incapable of using such preparation in an organised way. Either way, it suggests he's unlikely to be much better in the other debates. With Obama four years ago, we knew that he could debate effectively and whether through complacence or just an off-day, underperformed; with Trump, we don't know that he can handle a sustained one-to-one over 90 minutes - he never had to during the primaries, mostly working off short bursts of abuse and soundbites on a stage with at least four contenders and for some while, several more.
Trump has not varied his campaigning style much since day one (and nor has he had to really: it's got him a long way and far further than almost all experts expected). He's far from stupid and will know that it didn't go all that well. but he's also vain, egotistical and easily needled. Even if he does prepare better next time, he'll still go off-piste and he'll still pay the price - unless he can score a knockout. And he just might.
The next debate is the 9th, with Town Hall Meeting style. Questions from the audience may play better for Trump, or much worse!
I think the format will be better for Trump. Less chance for Hilary to open with direct needle to unbalance him.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an wexception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an wexception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
I've enjoyed my time in Rayleigh
The only real problem in Rayleigh is the traffic management.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an wexception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
"Fifty supporters of the Labour leader, it transpired, had contributed to a volume of verse entitled “Poems for Jeremy Corbyn”. To celebrate its publication, one of the poets – a middle-aged academic, formerly Professor of Radio at Bournemouth University – was reading a selection of his favourites. His audience was disappointingly small, and appeared to consist largely of eager-looking journalists.
None the less, he read his brief selection beautifully. Among its highlights were a new version of Jabberwocky, rewritten as a commentary on Tory in-fighting over the EU referendum (“’Twas Brexit, and the slithy Gove,” etc). Intrigued, I bought a copy of the book to find out more.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
To misquote Clarke and Dawe, we might be saying to America in November, "Congratulations, you have won the government you deserve". "Oh, buggered, I was hoping for a slightly better result than that".
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
@michaelsavage: Lots of unhappiness at #Lab16 now that a whole load of rule changes have been lumped together on a "take it or leave it" basis.
@paulwaugh: The Left is putting up a real fight on NEC vote. Lots of delegates cheered for rejecting the 'take it or leave it' package.
@paulwaugh: Lots of first-time delegates saying it's undemocratic to lump all rule changes into one vote. Others say separate votes wd ruin the conferce
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I went rowing on the Stour, Flatford Mill. You do actually feel as if you're in a Constable painting... North Essex is indeed lovely, I have some good memories from there.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
What was the book, if you don’t mind me asking. My family are “immigrants” but I know quite a few people whose families have lived in Essex for generations.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Don't be silly, he was exactly the same during GE 2015, his firm helped produce the accurate Crosby Textor polls for the Tories, ditto at GE2010.
And it is Lord Cooper to you.
Past performance is no guide to future success. He was less objective than Will Straw and constantly adjusted his polling methodology to give the results he wanted. His final poll on polling day and its litany of adjustments was laughable.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Don't be silly, he was exactly the same during GE 2015, his firm helped produce the accurate Crosby Textor polls for the Tories, ditto at GE2010.
And it is Lord Cooper to you.
Past performance is no guide to future success. He was less objective than Will Straw and constantly adjusted his polling methodology to give the results he wanted. His final poll on polling day and its litany of adjustments was laughable.
Cooper is a tit.
Bollocks, he wanted to give the most accurate results, just like he did at GE2010 and 2015.
I'd like to point out that his adjustments lots of other pollsters did the same, and they were the adjustment sages like Sir Lynton Crosby were advocating.
@michaelsavage: Lots of unhappiness at #Lab16 now that a whole load of rule changes have been lumped together on a "take it or leave it" basis.
@paulwaugh: The Left is putting up a real fight on NEC vote. Lots of delegates cheered for rejecting the 'take it or leave it' package.
@paulwaugh: Lots of first-time delegates saying it's undemocratic to lump all rule changes into one vote. Others say separate votes wd ruin the conferce
I see Labour are taking the fight to the Tories again.
"Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill.
Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didnso kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Don't be silly, he was exactly the same during GE 2015, his firm helped produce the accurate Crosby Textor polls for the Tories, ditto at GE2010.
And it is Lord Cooper to you.
Past performance is no guide to future success. He was less objective than Will Straw and constantly adjusted his polling methodology to give the results he wanted. His final poll on polling day and its litany of adjustments was laughable.
Cooper is a tit.
Bollocks, he wanted to give the most accurate results, just like he did at GE2010 and 2015.
I'd like to point out that his adjustments lots of other pollsters did the same, and they were the adjustment sages like Sir Lynton Crosby were advocating.
Look at the Populus poll on polling day showing a 10% lead for Remain and its explanation for its adjustments, if you want a good laugh. No science at all, just a lot of waffle.
I know Cooper is a friend/contact of yours, and a fellow Cameroon, but he was simply swept aside by something he didn't understand and no-one who read his Twitter could think him objective.
It's YouGov who should get the plaudits. They actually worked out before the vote what was going on with online v.phone polls, and were closest to getting the result right.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
What was the book, if you don’t mind me asking. My family are “immigrants” but I know quite a few people whose families have lived in Essex for generations.
I'm pretty sure it was this one: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Origins-British-Prehistory-Britain-Detective/dp/1845294823/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8 - not just about Essex and Suffolk, it discusses the genetic history of the whole of the British Isles. It's very interesting - the general story is that most British families have been here for ages, and that relatively little new genetic material arrived with the various invasions - Roman, Anglo-Saxon Viking, Norman etc.
@BBCNormanS: Blow for Team Corbyn as #labconf16 backs rule changes that will tip balance of NEC against him
A good day for the Labour Party. Probably enough to call off an immediate split of MPs, as they retain the power to select the leadership shortlist. From Corbyn's POV, he's now there until 2020 and needs to get on with the deselections under the cover of the boundary review.
Interesting times ahead, maybe at some point they'll remember that their primary role is to hold the government to account. Or maybe not.
I negotiated Rayleigh Weir in my first driving lessons 40 years ago. I still wake up in cold sweats when I dream about it.
It’s been “improved” and it’s just as traumatic. Wrere you still in the area when the Magic Roundabout (A13/A130) was built?
I left in about 1975 after having driven my car off the bridge that linked Benfleet to Canvey Island. A police patrol car pulled up seconds later and the pc peered over and said, "We wondered where you had disappeared to". He turned to his mate and said, "How shall we get him up?" He replied with his best Tommy Cooper impression, "Just like that!" I was up to the axles in Estuary mud.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
What was the book, if you don’t mind me asking. My family are “immigrants” but I know quite a few people whose families have lived in Essex for generations.
No reference to a book, but I wouldn't be surprised if this Telegraph article, sourced from a Nature article, wasn't based on the same research:
Mr. Sandpit, whether it's good for Labour depends how things progress. If it just prolongs the lingering decline into irrelevancy, it's bad. If it provides a relatively swift opportunity to return from the precipice, it's good.
I don't think MPs would've split. The cowardice is ingrained. It was back in 2009, or so, when Purnell resigned but Miliband (David) and others bottled it.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
North and North West Essex are totally different to the South of the county (the area South of the A127.) I’d make an exception though for Clacton and Jaywick. Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
What was the book, if you don’t mind me asking. My family are “immigrants” but I know quite a few people whose families have lived in Essex for generations.
I'm pretty sure it was this one: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Origins-British-Prehistory-Britain-Detective/dp/1845294823/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8 - not just about Essex and Suffolk, it discusses the genetic history of the whole of the British Isles. It's very interesting - the general story is that most British families have been here for ages, and that relatively little new genetic material arrived with the various invasions - Roman, Anglo-Saxon Viking, Norman etc.
Ah yes; recall reading it. I was more taken with the fact that the Western British Isles were populated from Spain, by travellers up the coast, and the East by “immigrants” from Mid-Europe, and how that difference has persisted to this day.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
I negotiated Rayleigh Weir in my first driving lessons 40 years ago. I still wake up in cold sweats when I dream about it.
It’s been “improved” and it’s just as traumatic. Wrere you still in the area when the Magic Roundabout (A13/A130) was built?
I left in about 1975 after having driven my car off the bridge that linked Benfleet to Canvey Island. A police patrol car pulled up seconds later and the pc peered over and said, "We wondered where you had disappeared to". He turned to his mate and said, "How shall we get him up?" He replied with his best Tommy Cooper impression, "Just like that!" I was up to the axles in Estuary mud.
Trying to use the old ford, were you? In the original sense of the word!
The Labour NEC move is significant. Interestingly, it may have meant Corbyn needed nominations based on interpretation of the rules, were the new set up in place in the spring/summer. It will mean that there will be no mass deselections (which were always unlikely anyway, despite the fantasies of BJO and other far-lefties on here) and is a major triumph for the moderates.
The moderates now have a strategic base to build on, as they continue their efforts to exorcise the Far Left. We may one day look back on this day as the day the seed was sown for Labour's return as a political force.
I said last night that I thought it likely that the betting markets would over-react. I'm not so sure about that this morning. Trump seems to have made some serious mistakes in the debate. In particular, if the Clinton campaign can pick up and successfully exploit his comments on tax and establish a perception that he thinks 'only little people pay taxes', then it may well be a clincher.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch SNIP
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didnso kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Don't be silly, he was exactly the same during GE 2015, his firm helped produce the accurate Crosby Textor polls for the Tories, ditto at GE2010.
And it is Lord Cooper to you.
Past performance is no guide to future success. He was less objective than Will Straw and constantly adjusted his polling methodology to give the results he wanted. His final poll on polling day and its litany of adjustments was laughable.
Cooper is a tit.
Bollocks, he wanted to give the most accurate results, just like he did at GE2010 and 2015.
I'd like to point out that his adjustments lots of other pollsters did the same, and they were the adjustment sages like Sir Lynton Crosby were advocating.
Look at the Populus poll on polling day showing a 10% lead for Remain and its explanation for its adjustments, if you want a good laugh. No science at all, just a lot of waffle. I know Cooper is a friend/contact of yours, and a fellow Cameroon, but he was simply swept aside by something he didn't understand and no-one who read his Twitter could think him objective. It's YouGov who should get the plaudits. They actually worked out before the vote what was going on with online v.phone polls, and were closest to getting the result right.
Populus/Cooper produced the worst final poll. They misled the REMAIN campaign. The Cameron chumocracy proved the point about the need for a meritocracy.
Mr. Betting, maybe. As others have said, I think Cameron realised things were looking uncomfortably close, hence his late and unexpected mini-speech outside Downing Street a short time before the vote.
@BBCNormanS: Blow for Team Corbyn as #labconf16 backs rule changes that will tip balance of NEC against him
A good day for the Labour Party. Probably enough to call off an immediate split of MPs, as they retain the power to select the leadership shortlist. From Corbyn's POV, he's now there until 2020 and needs to get on with the deselections under the cover of the boundary review.
Interesting times ahead, maybe at some point they'll remember that their primary role is to hold the government to account. Or maybe not.
I thought the analysis was that this neutralises the extra two bods Corbyn got on the NEC through the member vote. So its stalemate - the same balance on the committee as when it allowed him on the ballot. So hardly the start of turning things around, just a small obstacle to the onward march of the left
I said last night that I thought it likely that the betting markets would over-react. I'm not so sure about that this morning. Trump seems to have made some serious mistakes in the debate. In particular, if the Clinton campaign can pick up and successfully exploit his comments on tax and establish a perception that he thinks 'only little people pay taxes', then it may well be a clincher.
Yes, I'd agree with that analysis Richard. I don't think Hillary landed the knockout punch last night despite Trump's dire performance. But the experience may be useful for her medium term insofar as it has given her new negative material to work with.
A guest on Kyle just attempted to run another over with his wheelchair, and the other said they weren't scared if he'd six legs.
It's almost as bizarre as Labour conference.
If people wanted to know what was happening on that misanthropic disgrace of a TV show they could watch it themselves. There really is no need for your updates thanks.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
North Essex, around Saffron Walden and across to the coast, is basically Suffolk. South Essex is not Suffolk. At all.
I wouldn’t go to SW and say that. I suppose it’s about 15 years since I last heard a “real” Essex accent in Basildon.
I read a book recently which said there is still a recognisable genetic divide between Essex and Suffolk - the old dividing line between the Saxons and the Angles.
What was the book, if you don’t mind me asking. My family are “immigrants” but I know quite a few people whose families have lived in Essex for generations.
I'm pretty sure it was this one: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Origins-British-Prehistory-Britain-Detective/dp/1845294823/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8 - not just about Essex and Suffolk, it discusses the genetic history of the whole of the British Isles. It's very interesting - the general story is that most British families have been here for ages, and that relatively little new genetic material arrived with the various invasions - Roman, Anglo-Saxon Viking, Norman etc.
I have that on my bedside table. It's an interesting if challenging read (quite technical in places). The big story is that he argues that the population of most of England arrived from what is now Germany and the Low Countries, well before the Anglo Saxons turn up in the history books, and probably spoke some kind of Germanic language from the beginning. Whereas Brittany, Cornwall, Wales Ireland and Scotland were populated by people moving up from Iberia. This goes against the 'traditional' view that all of Britain was originally 'celtic' with the celts either being driven out or killed as the Anglo Saxons arrived. It is certainly a convincing argument in the book, and explains some of the weaknesses in the traditional view that I was writing essays about thirty years ago
Mind, when it was discussed on PB a couple of months back, someone did post that there had been further research since that had challenged/modified his argument, but I don't recall the PB poster giving any more detail or a link.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
oh so the police man was some form of uncle tom race traitor........
I said last night that I thought it likely that the betting markets would over-react. I'm not so sure about that this morning. Trump seems to have made some serious mistakes in the debate. In particular, if the Clinton campaign can pick up and successfully exploit his comments on tax and establish a perception that he thinks 'only little people pay taxes', then it may well be a clincher.
Yes, I'd agree with that analysis Richard. I don't think Hillary landed the knockout punch last night despite Trump's dire performance. But the experience may be useful for her medium term insofar as it has given her new negative material to work with.
Yes, the only issue I can see is the unfair questioning angle from the Trump side. If they can successfully land that on the moderator it will have been a successful evening for Trump. His comments on tax were extremely poorly judged IMO but may be overshadowed by howls of an establishment stitch up on the questions.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
You missed something. The cop was also possibly discriminating against his own sex.
I said last night that I thought it likely that the betting markets would over-react. I'm not so sure about that this morning. Trump seems to have made some serious mistakes in the debate. In particular, if the Clinton campaign can pick up and successfully exploit his comments on tax and establish a perception that he thinks 'only little people pay taxes', then it may well be a clincher.
Yes, I'd agree with that analysis Richard. I don't think Hillary landed the knockout punch last night despite Trump's dire performance. But the experience may be useful for her medium term insofar as it has given her new negative material to work with.
Yes, the only issue I can see is the unfair questioning angle from the Trump side. If they can successfully land that on the moderator it will have been a successful evening for Trump. His comments on tax were extremely poorly judged IMO but may be overshadowed by howls of an establishment stitch up on the questions.
@LadPolitics: Hillary Clinton's odds of becoming President have been cut to 4/9 following last night's debate... lbrk.es/8TIg304Bmny pic.twitter.com/JqGYW6EniN
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
You missed something. The cop was also possibly discriminating against his own sex.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
All things are possible. The cop in question may have been a self-hating black man, but I'd want to see some clear evidence for this.
Remember Charlotte shooting ? That lovely family guy with a book? Hmm http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed "Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill. Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
Plato There was I getting the BBC/SKY/ITV line that this was a racist incident by the police against this innocent black man. ignoring the fact that the officer was black so not racist! Reading this from Plato, the black police officer clearly had good reasons to regard Scott with extreme caution.
It's quite possible for people to discriminate against their own race and colour.
You missed something. The cop was also possibly discriminating against his own sex.
Yes how insensitive to overlook that.
These cops always seem to gun down guys. There's an institutional sexism that needs addressing.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Andrew Cooper provided me with much amusement.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
The adjustments made to the final Populus poll seem to have involved a good deal of wishful thinking.
Many thanks for the recommendation of that book, I have ordered my copy.
For any that are interested in the subject of how England has developed from prehistoric times may I recommend the book "Foundation" by Peter Ackroyd. As always with Ackroyd, it is an easy read but very well researched. Amongst other things, Ackroyd looks at the stability of English communities over the millennia and demonstrates how settlements, places of worship, roads, even the shape of fields are commonly in the same places or still follow the same lines as they did in the Bronze Age and even beyond.
N.B. Because of the maps and drawings Foundation is not suitable for Kindle.
@jessicaelgot: Jackie Baillie on rule changes, says no one questioning Corbyn's absolute right to be on NEC. Shouldn't question Scot/Welsh leaders #lab16
@jessicaelgot: Jackie Baillie MSP goes on - "Our UK leader was elected with 61% of the vote; our Scottish leader was elected with 72% of the vote" #Lab16
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
@FraserNelson: Labour member gets on stage to denounce "Parliamentarians who are not accountable to this movement" - i.e., the MPs. Extraordinary. #Lab16
I said last night that I thought it likely that the betting markets would over-react. I'm not so sure about that this morning. Trump seems to have made some serious mistakes in the debate. In particular, if the Clinton campaign can pick up and successfully exploit his comments on tax and establish a perception that he thinks 'only little people pay taxes', then it may well be a clincher.
yes if they were smart they would do this, but he said so many stupid things that it will probably get lost in the ether.
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
yes, whereas the pollsters are not readjusting their polls now to suit Clinton.
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
Have you been able to trade the 2.7 -> 3.45 Trump movements succesfully ?
I last bought Trump at 3.1 - yesterday it looked like a good move, today not so much. Tommorow, who knows ?
There will obviously be debate lag in the polls so you may get some shiftage if a coupe of favourable Trump polls come out between now and when the debate effect starts to be seen.
The Town Hall will be a better format for Trump and so he may be able to get a comeback narrative going. And of course the third debate will be moderated by Chris Wallace.
Still plenty of opportunities for a favorable trade in the future.
I, however, went long on Hilary - like the genius that I am.
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
Have you been able to trade the 2.7 -> 3.45 Trump movements succesfully ?
I last bought Trump at 3.1 - yesterday it looked like a good move, today not so much. Tommorow, who knows ?
There will obviously be debate lag in the polls so you may get some shiftage if a coupe of favourable Trump polls come out between now and when the debate effect starts to be seen.
The Town Hall will be a better format for Trump and so he may be able to get a comeback narrative going. And of course the third debate will be moderated by Chris Wallace.
Still plenty of opportunities for a favorable trade in the future.
I, however, went long on Hilary - like the genius that I am.
Yeah - that was a good call. I was briefly on the opposite side of that bet until it became clear that donald was quite happy to stand on stage in front of 100m voters and dig himself into a massive hole re; tax
Silly man. If there was one question he needed to rehearse - it was the tax question.
You've changed. I remember you justifying the evisceration of some kids playing soccer on a beach because they looked dangerous to some trigger happy twerp.
Comments
To be fair, Corbyn does not give the impression of a man on coke...
Mr. 43, wouldn't be the first time Obama's drastically misjudged politics across the Atlantic.
On the one hand he was claiming to be an objective pollster, on the other hand his Twitter feed was wall to wall propaganda for Remain.
Peter Kellner was similarly compromised but avoided making quite such a fool of himself.
Or is it a relative thing? Chigwell is nice when you compare it to Mogadishu
And it is Lord Cooper to you.
https://twitter.com/willquince/status/780670225662509056
Canvey Island has, or used to have anyway, a fantastic sense of community.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/26/jeremy-corbyns-supporters-have-been-writing-poems-about-him-and/
"Fifty supporters of the Labour leader, it transpired, had contributed to a volume of verse entitled “Poems for Jeremy Corbyn”. To celebrate its publication, one of the poets – a middle-aged academic, formerly Professor of Radio at Bournemouth University – was reading a selection of his favourites. His audience was disappointingly small, and appeared to consist largely of eager-looking journalists.
None the less, he read his brief selection beautifully. Among its highlights were a new version of Jabberwocky, rewritten as a commentary on Tory in-fighting over the EU referendum (“’Twas Brexit, and the slithy Gove,” etc). Intrigued, I bought a copy of the book to find out more.
https://twitter.com/TheMichaelMoran/status/780681768399671296
It’s been “improved” and it’s just as traumatic. Wrere you still in the area when the Magic Roundabout (A13/A130) was built?
@michaelsavage: Lots of unhappiness at #Lab16 now that a whole load of rule changes have been lumped together on a "take it or leave it" basis.
@paulwaugh: The Left is putting up a real fight on NEC vote. Lots of delegates cheered for rejecting the 'take it or leave it' package.
@paulwaugh: Lots of first-time delegates saying it's undemocratic to lump all rule changes into one vote.
Others say separate votes wd ruin the conferce
"Imagine there's no money," sang the millionaire, playing his piano, in his mansion.
Cooper is a tit.
I'd like to point out that his adjustments lots of other pollsters did the same, and they were the adjustment sages like Sir Lynton Crosby were advocating.
That lovely family guy with a book?
Hmm
http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/breaking-keith-scotts-criminal-background-exposed
"Other charges against him were dismissed, including felony assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill, assault on a female, and communicating threats. In addition, Scott was charged in 1995 with assault with intent to kill.
Fast-forward to 2005 in Bexar County, Texas, where Scott was sentenced to 15 months in state prison for evading arrest in March and then in July he was given a consecutive sentence of up to seven years for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
This is especially important to the case at hand because a source (who wished to remain anonymous) told CTN that in Feb. 2005, after police attempted to detain Scott for driving erratically, he shot at San Antonio police officers with a handgun. According to CTN, Scott had a history of drunk driving.
I know Cooper is a friend/contact of yours, and a fellow Cameroon, but he was simply swept aside by something he didn't understand and no-one who read his Twitter could think him objective.
It's YouGov who should get the plaudits. They actually worked out before the vote what was going on with online v.phone polls, and were closest to getting the result right.
- not just about Essex and Suffolk, it discusses the genetic history of the whole of the British Isles. It's very interesting - the general story is that most British families have been here for ages, and that relatively little new genetic material arrived with the various invasions - Roman, Anglo-Saxon Viking, Norman etc.
It's almost as bizarre as Labour conference.
Interesting times ahead, maybe at some point they'll remember that their primary role is to hold the government to account. Or maybe not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/03/14/britons-still-live-in-anglo-saxon-tribal-kingdoms-oxford-univers/
I don't think MPs would've split. The cowardice is ingrained. It was back in 2009, or so, when Purnell resigned but Miliband (David) and others bottled it.
The moderates now have a strategic base to build on, as they continue their efforts to exorcise the Far Left. We may one day look back on this day as the day the seed was sown for Labour's return as a political force.
(Or we may not)
If people wanted to know what was happening on that misanthropic disgrace of a TV show they could watch it themselves. There really is no need for your updates thanks.
Mind, when it was discussed on PB a couple of months back, someone did post that there had been further research since that had challenged/modified his argument, but I don't recall the PB poster giving any more detail or a link.
Remainers six times more likely to object to a child marrying a Leaver than vice versa.
https://t.co/0IcjMipfqZ https://t.co/49FSjQbqCa
As a convicted felon, he was going back to prison for even having a gun
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3808803/Keith-Scott-carrying-stolen-gun-police-say-wife-filed-restraining-order-against-saying-armed-violent-threatened-kill-her.html
Bake off sideshow, strictly, charity marathons - Balls is keeping his profile fairly high... can see him becoming an MP again yet and possibly leader.
Many thanks for the recommendation of that book, I have ordered my copy.
For any that are interested in the subject of how England has developed from prehistoric times may I recommend the book "Foundation" by Peter Ackroyd. As always with Ackroyd, it is an easy read but very well researched. Amongst other things, Ackroyd looks at the stability of English communities over the millennia and demonstrates how settlements, places of worship, roads, even the shape of fields are commonly in the same places or still follow the same lines as they did in the Bronze Age and even beyond.
N.B. Because of the maps and drawings Foundation is not suitable for Kindle.
@jessicaelgot: Jackie Baillie MSP goes on - "Our UK leader was elected with 61% of the vote; our Scottish leader was elected with 72% of the vote" #Lab16
*cough*mandate*cough*
"Instead of debates, we should give candidates three impromptu essay questions they have to answer in three hours in 1,000 words or less, and they have to write it, immediately and live on web cam, with no help from their interns."
https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/comments/54n1gm/instead_of_debates_we_should_give_candidates/
Those seeking to make cheap political points should really ensure they're in possession of the facts of the case before they comment.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3806997/He-just-wanted-knock-guys-heads-cop-shot-dead-Keith-Scott-considered-explosive-football-field-judgement-called-question.html?0p19G=c
I last bought Trump at 3.1 - yesterday it looked like a good move, today not so much. Tommorow, who knows ?
The Town Hall will be a better format for Trump and so he may be able to get a comeback narrative going. And of course the third debate will be moderated by Chris Wallace.
Still plenty of opportunities for a favorable trade in the future.
I, however, went long on Hilary - like the genius that I am.
I backed trump at around 2.9ish pre-debate, then quickly reversed my book at the point when Clinton nailed him on his taxes (~3.1).
I also took the opportunity to reback the field when the book tightened.
Overall I'm treading water;
HRC +23.5
DT +3
Others >=+19.5
Silly man. If there was one question he needed to rehearse - it was the tax question.