Spectacularly and laughably wrong, and a good indication of how commenting on other countries' politics is fraught with pitfalls. It is just conceivable that the Lib Dems might form the next government - the scenario runs something like 1981-2, where the Alliance was regularly polling 40%+ before they dropped off (pre-Falklands, contrary to myth) - but if so, it'll be despite their stance on Brexit, not because of it.
Well, it certainly helps that the Labour Party has fragmented and it is hard to see how it can come back again into one piece.
It also helps, in that the Conservatives have lost their USP as the party of business and commerce. How they ever thought they could turn their back on the European market and stability; and yet maintain their reputation for being business-friendly beats me. All their leaders seem to have gone bonkers.
So if both Labour and the Tories are going down the drain, it is the Lib Dems who will have to step up to the plate. Mr Dean may be foreign, but he is not necessarily wrong.
This is one of the big divisions between Con and LD. The EU has generally been good for big business but it hasn't been for small business, particularly since it took on the 'social Europe' project. There's a lot of world out there and being tied to the EU is for much of UK business a mixed blessing. One reason I was a Remainer was that i thought that the UK's influence was towards maintaining a more competitive, less regulated EU but we were always swimming against the tide and once we're outside the ability to set our own regulations will help business.
I don't particularly see Brexit as damaging the Conservatives' reputation on being business-friendly or for economic competence, not least because the policy was forced on the government against the advice of the then-PM.
But even if it were, Farron would have to play to the Con vote and that is something he is simply incapable of doing. In fact, he'd be better off taking a leaf out the SNP's book (which to be fair, he seems to be trying to do), and try to prove the Lib Dems to be more effective opposition to the Tories than Labour is. Problem is, starting with 8 MPs, it's difficult to credibly make that case.
The SNP started from a lower base than 8. In Britian as a whole anyway.
When? The SNP's landslide last year came off the back of a Holyrood landslide. Looking at the last 9 years inc Scotland, it's 2010 which is the odd one out, amid a sea of SNP success. It's true that in Westminster seats they went into 2015 on a low base but they nonetheless had representation on the ground across the country. The SNP had already replaced Labour and the Westminster seats were just playing catch-up.
But even if it were, Farron would have to play to the Con vote and that is something he is simply incapable of doing. In fact, he'd be better off taking a leaf out the SNP's book (which to be fair, he seems to be trying to do), and try to prove the Lib Dems to be more effective opposition to the Tories than Labour is. Problem is, starting with 8 MPs, it's difficult to credibly make that case.
The point you are missing, Mr Herdson, is that there is not really any such thing as "a Conservative vote". At the last election, there were several million voters who supported the Lib Dems in 2010, but who were frightened into voting Conservative in 2015, many of them thinking that they were voting for that nice Mr Cameron and a continuation of the Coalition Government.
With the Conservatives` reputation for economic competence now in tatters, it will be interesting to see how many return to the Liberal Democrats. And as I said below, the first test is the Witney byelection.
I did say 'if Brexit becomes unpopular'. Time and 'events' will tell. Politics is the 'art of the possible'. If it's necessary to ditch Brexit or more likely fudge it, then it will be done (A50 or no A50).
The timeline doesn't work though. The next GE is likely to be in 2020. In all probability, Brexit will be complete by then, so a 'No Brexit' policy makes no sense. A 'let's reapply for EU membership' would be possible and if Brexit is unpopular by then, might make sense, though I still harbour exterme reservations that it'd be an election-winning policy. Even if the election's earlier and Brexit is not complete, A50 will have been invoked. No matter what a new British government might want, the UK would then only be staying in the EU if all other 27 countries want it, and given the problems the UK's caused over the past four decades, I simply don't see how that happens. Politics is indeed the art of the possible, but 'No Brexit' isn't possible once A50's been invoked.
Getting ahead of yourself a bit, I fear, Mr Herdson. There is an election for a Westminster seat next month. What would the May government do if they lost it? (Apart from panic of course).
Betting on the result shows the Lib Dems are clearly the challengers in Witney. So far, the campaign seems to be going very well for them. (Only what I read - no inside knowledge)
If you were a wealthy businessman who wanted Mrs May to stop dithering and to start cherishing the business interest again, what would you do? Make her halt in her tracks, by making sure that there is a Lib Dem gain in Witney. It will be very interesting to see how many large donations come flooding into the Lib Dem coffers.
That would certainly be in the best interests of the business community.
There are two by-elections, actually, and the Lib Dems won't win either (admittedly, they're not standing in one but that won't make much difference to the votes they'd have won there).
The Lib Dems might well regain second in Witney off the back of labour's national showing; they won't do better. It's over 10½ years since the Lib Dems last gained a seat at a Westminster by-election and the lean spell has some way to go yet.
Do the LD’s actually have win in Witney? A close second there..... recount levels perhaps ...... would put the fear of God into the Tories. Or would there just be a sigh of relief.
A 2nd place is really essential for Farron. That is what I interpreted from OGH the other day.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
Spectacularly and laughably wrong, and a good indication of how commenting on other countries' politics is fraught with pitfalls. It is just conceivable that the Lib Dems might form the next government - the scenario runs something like 1981-2, where the Alliance was regularly polling 40%+ before they dropped off (pre-Falklands, contrary to myth) - but if so, it'll be despite their stance on Brexit, not because of it.
Well, it certainly helps that the Labour Party has fragmented and it is hard to see how it can come back again into one piece.
It also helps, in that the Conservatives have lost their USP as the party of business and commerce. How they ever thought they could turn their back on the European market and stability; and yet maintain their reputation for being business-friendly beats me. All their leaders seem to have gone bonkers.
So if both Labour and the Tories are going down the drain, it is the Lib Dems who will have to step up to the plate. Mr Dean may be foreign, but he is not necessarily wrong.
This is one of the big divisions between Con and LD. The EU has generally been good for big business but it hasn't been for small business, particularly since it took on the 'social Europe' project. There's a lot of world out there and being tied to the EU is for much of UK business a mixed blessing. One reason I was a Remainer was that i thought that the UK's influence was towards maintaining a more competitive, less regulated EU but we were always swimming against the tide and once we're outside the ability to set our own regulations will help business.
I don't particularly see Brexit as damaging the Conservatives' reputation on being business-friendly or for economic competence, not least because the policy was forced on the government against the advice of the then-PM.
But even if it were, Farron would have to play to the Con vote and that is something he is simply incapable of doing. In fact, he'd be better off taking a leaf out the SNP's book (which to be fair, he seems to be trying to do), and try to prove the Lib Dems to be more effective opposition to the Tories than Labour is. Problem is, starting with 8 MPs, it's difficult to credibly make that case.
The SNP started from a lower base than 8. In Britian as a whole anyway.
They're at about 4.5 now.
Just checked. The SNP had 7 constituency seats in the first Holyrood Parliament. They now have 59.
Mr. Taffys, the situation hasn't really changed. Not since Brown and the efforts to oust him.
Either axe a leader properly, line up behind him, or leave.
So far, since Corbyn's rise (which was their own damned fault), the PLP has opted for the fourth way: maximise division whilst achieving nothing. They're hampered, of course, by their mad rulebook (and their own daftness in putting Corbyn on the short list to start with), but the options of resignation or forming a new party remain.
But even if it were, Farron would have to play to the Con vote and that is something he is simply incapable of doing. In fact, he'd be better off taking a leaf out the SNP's book (which to be fair, he seems to be trying to do), and try to prove the Lib Dems to be more effective opposition to the Tories than Labour is. Problem is, starting with 8 MPs, it's difficult to credibly make that case.
The point you are missing, Mr Herdson, is that there is not really any such thing as "a Conservative vote". At the last election, there were several million voters who supported the Lib Dems in 2010, but who were frightened into voting Conservative in 2015, many of them thinking that they were voting for that nice Mr Cameron and a continuation of the Coalition Government.
With the Conservatives` reputation for economic competence now in tatters, it will be interesting to see how many return to the Liberal Democrats. And as I said below, the first test is the Witney byelection.
Only one thing will decide these people's votes:
They won't risk Corbyn.
If they weren't willing to risk Miliband + Sturgeon then there isn't any chance whatsoever of them risking Corbyn.
My daughter was telling me that Farron was on some interview program recently and was asked what he would do if he became the next PM.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
Mr. L, I agree. But, if we're right (and strange things can happen), the vote split will be crucial as to what happens. It could be anything from a Conservative landslide, to a very fractured opposition with UKIP and the Lib Dems doing very well.
My daughter was telling me that Farron was on some interview program recently and was asked what he would do if he became the next PM.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
That is the best thing I have heard from a politician for months!
But even if it were, Farron would have to play to the Con vote and that is something he is simply incapable of doing. In fact, he'd be better off taking a leaf out the SNP's book (which to be fair, he seems to be trying to do), and try to prove the Lib Dems to be more effective opposition to the Tories than Labour is. Problem is, starting with 8 MPs, it's difficult to credibly make that case.
"With the Conservatives` reputation for economic competence now in tatters"
You have said that twice now, and it just ain't so. Nobody (except, apparently, yourself) equates "leaver" with "tory".
Edit: nor counts the referendum result as "economic incompetence". You are trying to update and revivify a script from 1992, and it doesn't work.
Mr. L, I agree. But, if we're right (and strange things can happen), the vote split will be crucial as to what happens. It could be anything from a Conservative landslide, to a very fractured opposition with UKIP and the Lib Dems doing very well.
Oh sure - agree - any defectors from Lab may well go LD / UKIP.
My point is simply I expect the Con vote to hold. Plus I expect some move from UKIP to Con.
I did say 'if Brexit becomes unpopular'. Time and 'events' will tell. Politics is the 'art of the possible'. If it's necessary to ditch Brexit or more likely fudge it, then it will be done (A50 or no A50).
The timeline doesn't work though. The next GE is likely to be in 2020. In all probability, Brexit will be complete by then, so a 'No Brexit' policy makes no sense. A 'let's reapply for EU membership' would be possible and if Brexit is unpopular by then, might make sense, though I still harbour exterme reservations that it'd be an election-winning policy. Even if the election's earlier and Brexit is not complete, A50 will have been invoked. No matter what a new British government might want, the UK would then only be staying in the EU if all other 27 countries want it, and given the problems the UK's caused over the past four decades, I simply don't see how that happens. Politics is indeed the art of the possible, but 'No Brexit' isn't possible once A50's been invoked.
Getting ahead of yourself a bit, I fear, Mr Herdson. There is an election for a Westminster seat next month. What would the May government do if they lost it? (Apart from panic of course).
Betting on the result shows the Lib Dems are clearly the challengers in Witney. So far, the campaign seems to be going very well for them. (Only what I read - no inside knowledge)
That would certainly be in the best interests of the business community.
There are two by-elections, actually, and the Lib Dems won't win either (admittedly, they're not standing in one but that won't make much difference to the votes they'd have won there).
The Lib Dems might well regain second in Witney off the back of labour's national showing; they won't do better. It's over 10½ years since the Lib Dems last gained a seat at a Westminster by-election and the lean spell has some way to go yet.
Do the LD’s actually have win in Witney? A close second there..... recount levels perhaps ...... would put the fear of God into the Tories. Or would there just be a sigh of relief.
A 2nd place is really essential for Farron. That is what I interpreted from OGH the other day.
Surely the LibDems could never win Witney, from fourth place on 6.8% of the vote and the Tories on over 60%. I can see them beating Labour's 17% to come second.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
On Topic: No. The Lib Dems may well reflate as the contradictions of Brexit unravel but if Brexit really is such a disaster then a more established party will reap the bonus electorally because that's how FPTP works. Look at Osborne's positioning.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
My daughter was telling me that Farron was on some interview program recently and was asked what he would do if he became the next PM.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
David, I obviously agree the likelihood of Farron becoming Prime Minister is remote, the likelihood of the Conservatives losing their majority at the next GE is not.
As in February 1974, it's quite possible for both the Conservatives and Labour to fall back and for UKIP and the LDs to advance. We simply don't know the A50 negotiations will play out and we also don't know what else will impact on the Government.
I realise it's hard for many Conservatives to understand the concept of not being popular but it befalls every Government and with no junior partner to take the flak, the Conservatives themselves will have to take the blame for anything going wrong.
Mr. Stodge, indeed. Aside from the probability of Labour going backwards again [and that's not certain, though it is likely], there's a very wide range of credible possibilities for the next election.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
In 2020 Corbyn will be 71. Battling on until 76?
Doesn't really matter who leads it. Twenty-first century Socialism needs to be stress-tested to destruction. It needs to be excised from political thought as an electoral option. Corbyn can do that as well as anybody else.
No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.
He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.
I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.
I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
It'll be Richard Burgon.
Clive Lewis if he gets on the ballot
Jon Trickett this side of 2020.
Trickett has two problems this side of 2020:
1. Nominations with the PLP 2. His constituency is being split up.
Words are magic. Most of the British political establishment is signally that we're leaving the Single Market as the inevitable consequence of the anti immigration event. But no one is yet saying it out loud in clear words because words are magic. It's good psychology as the numerous Kubler-Ross jibes on here highlight but curiously don't understand. The question is when and in what context May says the spell out loud and on record. It will be one of the those moment where we all go ' well we knew that ' but it will be shocking. Shocking because more or less the entire purpose of the modern British state is *not* do this sort of thing. Vulgar outbursts of popular sovereignty in support of abstract philosophy which conflict with free trade are , well, European. So Dean is right. We're heading for a huge system shock. But I feel completely wrong about the ability of the destroyed Lib Dems to channel the flow.
Mr. Stodge, indeed. Aside from the probability of Labour going backwards again [and that's not certain, though it is likely], there's a very wide range of credible possibilities for the next election.
You wouldn't think so reading some of the comments on here, Mr Dancer. A number of the Conservatives seem to think not only do they have the next election in the bag but that it'll be a landslide.
If you had told a Conservative activist 12 months ago that not only would David Cameron have left politics but also that Theresa May would be the Prime Minister that activist would have been in convulsions of laughter. Telling them Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate would probably have tipped them over the edge.
My daughter was telling me that Farron was on some interview program recently and was asked what he would do if he became the next PM.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
David, I obviously agree the likelihood of Farron becoming Prime Minister is remote, the likelihood of the Conservatives losing their majority at the next GE is not.
As in February 1974, it's quite possible for both the Conservatives and Labour to fall back and for UKIP and the LDs to advance. We simply don't know the A50 negotiations will play out and we also don't know what else will impact on the Government.
I realise it's hard for many Conservatives to understand the concept of not being popular but it befalls every Government and with no junior partner to take the flak, the Conservatives themselves will have to take the blame for anything going wrong.
That is true. However, I don't think we're in a Heath/Wilson situation. Corbyn is deeply electorally toxic. If Labour carries on as they are, then for 2020, any vaguely centrist Conservative party will win simply because of the threat that Corbyn poses, even if they are themselves unpopular. Like 1992 though, in that sort of scenario, there may be a delayed reaction once Labour (or possibly someone else) gets their act together and looks like a government in waiting.
''that was my fear on leaving.... I believe membership of the single market however is equally restraining... ''
The single most powerful reason I could think of for staying in Europe is that is would act as a bulwark against a Venezuela type situation happening in the UK.
That and the environmental restrictions they force us to impose, largely against our will.. Corbyn and the far left no damn well the restriction the EU and single market impose on them, which is why he is glad to be rid, and their proposals are to not be members of the Single Market.
I cant understand Tories who are instinctively hostile to the Single Market. It is a neo liberal wet dream. It has liberalised the continent in a way i doubt even national heads of government would have been able to manage.
That's the macroeconomics. The microeconomics are far less friendly to businesses and, as such, favour corporatism over small business creation and expansion, and nimble market responses.
21st Century Socialism is like Compassionate Conservatism or Tough Liberalism. It's a disastrous phrase because it subliminally repeats the charge that it's meant to rebut. By bracketing your brand with a qualifying word designed to negate all that brands negatives you remind people of those negatives. New Labour fudged this as New denoted change but in it's self was meaningless. The phrase 21st Centuary Socialism, apart from being quite ugly, is a subliminal statement that socialism is old and outdated.
Perfect symbol for Momentum though - would spit at you as soon as look at you....
I thought that was camels..? - And Guardian hacks...
Alpacas too...
Do alpacas spit?
A question asked quite often: The partial answer is yes, they can and do spit. However, there's more to the story than that. There's what I would call a "little spit" and then there's the "big spit." When alpacas do the "little spit," it's mostly a form of shoving: "Hey, I want to get at that food first!" "Get out of my way!" "Stop bothering me!" They generally do the "little spit" at each other.
The "big spit" involves regurgitating hay/grain and it's much like vomiting, so it's not something they really like to do--it doesn't taste good! So, when the "big spit"? A female in her tenth month might get more annoyed than usual--wouldn't you? An alpaca can feel threatened, frightened. Someone who was helping during shearing last year claimed the dubious honor of being spit on. "I just wasn't patient," he told me. "If I had just waited a moment before trying to get her to move, she never would have spit!"
A macho--male--might assert his dominance over a younger male by spitting at him.
My daughter was telling me that Farron was on some interview program recently and was asked what he would do if he became the next PM.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
David, I obviously agree the likelihood of Farron becoming Prime Minister is remote, the likelihood of the Conservatives losing their majority at the next GE is not.
As in February 1974, it's quite possible for both the Conservatives and Labour to fall back and for UKIP and the LDs to advance. We simply don't know the A50 negotiations will play out and we also don't know what else will impact on the Government.
I realise it's hard for many Conservatives to understand the concept of not being popular but it befalls every Government and with no junior partner to take the flak, the Conservatives themselves will have to take the blame for anything going wrong.
I have said repeatedly on here that smug complacent tories are taking way too much for granted for a government with a really hard path to cut through difficult ground. Who knows where we will be at the next election? But right now things look surprisingly propitious for the Tories.
Words are magic. Most of the British political establishment is signally that we're leaving the Single Market as the inevitable consequence of the anti immigration event. But no one is yet saying it out loud in clear words because words are magic. It's good psychology as the numerous Kubler-Ross jibes on here highlight but curiously don't understand. The question is when and in what context May says the spell out loud and on record. It will be one of the those moment where we all go ' well we knew that ' but it will be shocking. Shocking because more or less the entire purpose of the modern British state is *not* do this sort of thing. Vulgar outbursts of popular sovereignty in support of abstract philosophy which conflict with free trade are , well, European. So Dean is right. We're heading for a huge system shock. But I feel completely wrong about the ability of the destroyed Lib Dems to channel the flow.
The only bit of that I understand is "I feel completely wrong".
Are you ready for 21st Century SOCIALISM? Corbyn demands rebel Labour MPs sign up to his 'vision' as he slams the free market, pledges to raise taxes and borrow £500bn, and vows to keep open door immigration
I only say this because despite hate from the left for the Mail, in times gone by when Labour won elections it was found a significant proportion of Mail readers voted Labour.
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Perfect symbol for Momentum though - would spit at you as soon as look at you....
I thought that was camels..? - And Guardian hacks...
Alpacas too...
Do alpacas spit?
A question asked quite often: The partial answer is yes, they can and do spit. However, there's more to the story than that. There's what I would call a "little spit" and then there's the "big spit." When alpacas do the "little spit," it's mostly a form of shoving: "Hey, I want to get at that food first!" "Get out of my way!" "Stop bothering me!" They generally do the "little spit" at each other.
The "big spit" involves regurgitating hay/grain and it's much like vomiting, so it's not something they really like to do--it doesn't taste good! So, when the "big spit"? A female in her tenth month might get more annoyed than usual--wouldn't you? An alpaca can feel threatened, frightened. Someone who was helping during shearing last year claimed the dubious honor of being spit on. "I just wasn't patient," he told me. "If I had just waited a moment before trying to get her to move, she never would have spit!"
A macho--male--might assert his dominance over a younger male by spitting at him.
That is true. However, I don't think we're in a Heath/Wilson situation. Corbyn is deeply electorally toxic. If Labour carries on as they are, then for 2020, any vaguely centrist Conservative party will win simply because of the threat that Corbyn poses, even if they are themselves unpopular. Like 1992 though, in that sort of scenario, there may be a delayed reaction once Labour (or possibly someone else) gets their act together and looks like a government in waiting.
Presumably Wilson was toxic in February 1974 though I agree the figures for Corbyn are spectacularly poor. The problem for the Conservatives is the less likely Labour look as winners, the more likely other parties (UKIP and the LDs in particular) will seem as attractive alternatives for the disillusioned or disenchanted Conservative.
Whether a Diane James-led UKIP would prop up a minority Conservative Government isn't for me to say. We've yet to see how the Conservatives will square the circle between those wanting continued membership of the Single Market and only limited restriction on Freedom of Movement and those willing to abandon the Single Market in favour of immigration controls.
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Mr. Betting, Lib Dems don't need to win Witney. A good second would be a significant positive step.
A second is a pass. A first lifts them into being contenders and attractive to MPs to defect to.
The last thing the Lib Dems need is for Labour MPs to defect to them and be turned into Labour Lite.
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Disagree. A single MP defection would be a huge PR coup, make them look like winners / big players again, and get some good press. In many ways a single defection would be more valuable than a significant number.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Poems for Jeremy will have their own section in bookshops when he becomes PM.
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Poems for Jeremy will have their own section in bookshops when he becomes PM.
Mr. Betting, Lib Dems don't need to win Witney. A good second would be a significant positive step.
A second is a pass. A first lifts them into being contenders and attractive to MPs to defect to.
The last thing the Lib Dems need is for Labour MPs to defect to them and be turned into Labour Lite.
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Disagree. A single MP defection would be a huge PR coup, make them look like winners / big players again, and get some good press. In many ways a single defection would be more valuable than a significant number.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
Has Carswell been beneficial for UKIP or diluted their message?
Mr. Betting, Lib Dems don't need to win Witney. A good second would be a significant positive step.
A second is a pass. A first lifts them into being contenders and attractive to MPs to defect to.
The last thing the Lib Dems need is for Labour MPs to defect to them and be turned into Labour Lite.
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Disagree. A single MP defection would be a huge PR coup, make them look like winners / big players again, and get some good press. In many ways a single defection would be more valuable than a significant number.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
The LibDem’s a local councillor, too, and both she and the Labour guy have fought the seat before. There are (so far?) 14 candidates.
Are you ready for 21st Century SOCIALISM? Corbyn demands rebel Labour MPs sign up to his 'vision' as he slams the free market, pledges to raise taxes and borrow £500bn, and vows to keep open door immigration
I only say this because despite hate from the left for the Mail, in times gone by when Labour won elections it was found a significant proportion of Mail readers voted Labour.
Yes, but that wasn't because the Mail was nice about Labour - Labour is always portrayed as the end of civilisation (just like Brexit really). My secretary in thew Comomn was a regular Mail reader - simply thought it was a good read, and she could skip the politics.
Is there anyone who doesn't want a general election in May 2017?
Isn't a French presidential election and German federal elections enough for 2017? And why should I spend 60 days looking at 60 youGov polls all telling me the same (wrong) information?
In truth we've been spoilt the last couple of years.
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Poems for Jeremy will have their own section in bookshops when he becomes PM.
There is already a very apposite poem about Jeremy, written by John Cooper Clarke.
"Nobody's got a good word for you. But I have - ..........."
Mr. Betting, Lib Dems don't need to win Witney. A good second would be a significant positive step.
A second is a pass. A first lifts them into being contenders and attractive to MPs to defect to.
The last thing the Lib Dems need is for Labour MPs to defect to them and be turned into Labour Lite.
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Disagree. A single MP defection would be a huge PR coup, make them look like winners / big players again, and get some good press. In many ways a single defection would be more valuable than a significant number.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
The LibDem’s a local councillor, too, and both she and the Labour guy have fought the seat before. There are (so far?) 14 candidates.
That is true. However, I don't think we're in a Heath/Wilson situation. Corbyn is deeply electorally toxic. If Labour carries on as they are, then for 2020, any vaguely centrist Conservative party will win simply because of the threat that Corbyn poses, even if they are themselves unpopular. Like 1992 though, in that sort of scenario, there may be a delayed reaction once Labour (or possibly someone else) gets their act together and looks like a government in waiting.
Presumably Wilson was toxic in February 1974 though I agree the figures for Corbyn are spectacularly poor. The problem for the Conservatives is the less likely Labour look as winners, the more likely other parties (UKIP and the LDs in particular) will seem as attractive alternatives for the disillusioned or disenchanted Conservative.
Whether a Diane James-led UKIP would prop up a minority Conservative Government isn't for me to say. We've yet to see how the Conservatives will square the circle between those wanting continued membership of the Single Market and only limited restriction on Freedom of Movement and those willing to abandon the Single Market in favour of immigration controls.
The Uk needs to be outside the EU customs union so that it can set up its own trade deals with non EU countries like USA, China, India, Brazil and Indonesia - an economic reason.
The Uk needs to be outside the EU single market so that it is not subject to the freedom of movement rules - a political reason.
I thought the attack was years ago? He would scarcely be deliberately alienating the overweight vote now (and not when his own bmi is borderline obese) surely?
Green with lust and sick with shyness, Let me kiss your lovely toes. Let me praise your mighty greatness Stick your finger up my nose Only you can make me happy. Tuck me tight beneath your arm. Wrap me in a woollen nappy; Let me wet it till it's warm. In a plush and plated pram Wheel me all around West Ham. Let your sleek and soft galoshes Slide and slither on my skin. Swaddle me in mackintoshes Till I lose my sense of sin. Lightly plant your plimsolled heel Where my privy parts congeal.
I worry about people who post poems in a discussion forum. You see it on ConHome now and again.
Poems for Jeremy will have their own section in bookshops when he becomes PM.
There is already a very apposite poem about Jeremy, written by John Cooper Clarke.
"Nobody's got a good word for you. But I have - ..........."
Mr. Betting, Lib Dems don't need to win Witney. A good second would be a significant positive step.
A second is a pass. A first lifts them into being contenders and attractive to MPs to defect to.
The last thing the Lib Dems need is for Labour MPs to defect to them and be turned into Labour Lite.
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Disagree. A single MP defection would be a huge PR coup, make them look like winners / big players again, and get some good press. In many ways a single defection would be more valuable than a significant number.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
One or two defections from Labour might be welcome. 100 might be a little overwhelming and could rather change the nature of the party in a way existing MPs might not necessarily welcome.. Which, coincidentally, is a fair analogy of how some parts of the country see immigration.
Words are magic. Most of the British political establishment is signally that we're leaving the Single Market as the inevitable consequence of the anti immigration event. But no one is yet saying it out loud in clear words because words are magic. It's good psychology as the numerous Kubler-Ross jibes on here highlight but curiously don't understand. The question is when and in what context May says the spell out loud and on record. It will be one of the those moment where we all go ' well we knew that ' but it will be shocking. Shocking because more or less the entire purpose of the modern British state is *not* do this sort of thing. Vulgar outbursts of popular sovereignty in support of abstract philosophy which conflict with free trade are , well, European. So Dean is right. We're heading for a huge system shock. But I feel completely wrong about the ability of the destroyed Lib Dems to channel the flow.
If (when) we leave the Single Market a lot of companies will open operations in countries that remain within the Single Market. They will create jobs and invest in those countries rather than in the UK. That is exactly what we will do. We will retain our UK office and it will remain our HQ, but all the work we do with and in the EU that we currently do from the UK will be done from the new office instead. That is the challenge the government faces: it not only loses investment and jobs, but it also sees its income reduce at a time when the working population is not getting smaller as a proportion of the overall population. Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry.
Is there anyone who doesn't want a general election in May 2017?
Isn't a French presidential election and German federal elections enough for 2017? And why should I spend 60 days looking at 60 youGov polls all telling me the same (wrong) information?
In truth we've been spoilt the last couple of years.
We have the first rounds of the Socialist and Les Republicains coming up too. LR is in November; the Socialists on 22 January. Will Macron stand? Will Hollande fight off Valls? Will Juppe beat Sarkozy?
I thought the attack was years ago? He would scarcely be deliberately alienating the overweight vote now (and not when his own bmi is borderline obese) surely?
Clinton brought her up at the end of the debate and Trump went mentalist. And then kept talking about her the next day - watch the Fox and Friends hosts faces as Trump talks here
Comments
And if they won't, then what?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-peoples-challenge-legal-high-court-block-article-50-referendum-a7335201.html
With the Conservatives` reputation for economic competence now in tatters, it will be interesting to see how many return to the Liberal Democrats. And as I said below, the first test is the Witney byelection.
Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
Either axe a leader properly, line up behind him, or leave.
So far, since Corbyn's rise (which was their own damned fault), the PLP has opted for the fourth way: maximise division whilst achieving nothing. They're hampered, of course, by their mad rulebook (and their own daftness in putting Corbyn on the short list to start with), but the options of resignation or forming a new party remain.
"Jeremy is like an alpaca," one MP despaired to me last night. "He's lovely, but f---ing useless".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/jeremy-corbyn-wants-to-convince-voters-they-shouldnt-care-about/
They won't risk Corbyn.
If they weren't willing to risk Miliband + Sturgeon then there isn't any chance whatsoever of them risking Corbyn.
His reply was that he would pinch himself and then have a go spinning around on the big chair. She really liked him and thought he came across really well. But I think his assessment is a bit more realistic than Mr Dean's.
Very true Mr Morris. Option A is gone. I am just wondering which of B. and C. the moderates will take.
I reckon its B. Many labour politicians have never had to fight for anything. I don;t see them starting now.
It's just a different labour party.
Edit: nor counts the referendum result as "economic incompetence". You are trying to update and revivify a script from 1992, and it doesn't work.
My point is simply I expect the Con vote to hold. Plus I expect some move from UKIP to Con.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/781147536157446145
Though I prefer Pachycephalosaurus (the bone headed dinosaur).
I wonder if many labour supporters have kept the faith on the basis the party would soon come to its senses.
Its quite clear that isn;t going to happen, now.
As in February 1974, it's quite possible for both the Conservatives and Labour to fall back and for UKIP and the LDs to advance. We simply don't know the A50 negotiations will play out and we also don't know what else will impact on the Government.
I realise it's hard for many Conservatives to understand the concept of not being popular but it befalls every Government and with no junior partner to take the flak, the Conservatives themselves will have to take the blame for anything going wrong.
The Clinton campaign must hardly be able to believe their luck.
1. Nominations with the PLP
2. His constituency is being split up.
I also have my reservations about whether Jeremy could be described as 'lovely'. Maybe a llama would be a better analogy.
If you had told a Conservative activist 12 months ago that not only would David Cameron have left politics but also that Theresa May would be the Prime Minister that activist would have been in convulsions of laughter. Telling them Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate would probably have tipped them over the edge.
Events, dear boy, events as someone once said.
Mr. Eagles, any word on the others on that edition?
Mr. Stodge, well, quite. Hubris ought to be avoided at all costs.
Do alpacas spit?
A question asked quite often: The partial answer is yes, they can and do spit. However, there's more to the story than that. There's what I would call a "little spit" and then there's the "big spit." When alpacas do the "little spit," it's mostly a form of shoving: "Hey, I want to get at that food first!" "Get out of my way!" "Stop bothering me!" They generally do the "little spit" at each other.
The "big spit" involves regurgitating hay/grain and it's much like vomiting, so it's not something they really like to do--it doesn't taste good! So, when the "big spit"? A female in her tenth month might get more annoyed than usual--wouldn't you? An alpaca can feel threatened, frightened. Someone who was helping during shearing last year claimed the dubious honor of being spit on. "I just wasn't patient," he told me. "If I had just waited a moment before trying to get her to move, she never would have spit!"
A macho--male--might assert his dominance over a younger male by spitting at him.
http://bigmeadowcreekalpacas.com/About Alpacas/Alpaca_behavior.htm
They are having enough difficulty getting their liberal message over as it is.
Are you ready for 21st Century SOCIALISM? Corbyn demands rebel Labour MPs sign up to his 'vision' as he slams the free market, pledges to raise taxes and borrow £500bn, and vows to keep open door immigration
I only say this because despite hate from the left for the Mail, in times gone by when Labour won elections it was found a significant proportion of Mail readers voted Labour.
Mr. L, indeed. Problem is that if the Conservatives screw things up, the alternative government is stark raving mad.
Mr. Patrick, I suspect you're right.
Mr. Rentool, it's my understanding that part of the world wants to become part of a north Midlands/Derbyshire wider area (in mayoral terms).
I live in a high poor immigration area and what the hell does extra money do for the people living in those area's - F-all.
It still makes things worse for those people living there with more poor unskilled people coming in.
Dickheads.
They also have an interesting immune system:
http://www.ablynx.com/technology-innovation/understanding-nanobodies/
Whether a Diane James-led UKIP would prop up a minority Conservative Government isn't for me to say. We've yet to see how the Conservatives will square the circle between those wanting continued membership of the Single Market and only limited restriction on Freedom of Movement and those willing to abandon the Single Market in favour of immigration controls.
I also don't get the excitement about Witney; the Lib Dems are clearly taking it seriously, and resourcing it heavily. But it's a fundamentally Tory seat without the incumbent having left in shame (maybe debatable!) and there's a decent Labour presence in the constituency including four councillors. So I don't see second place as a given at all.
It's not going to help him with women
There are (so far?) 14 candidates.
Edit. 4 LD’s & 4 Lab on W.Oxford DC. 41 Tories though!
oh dear. he should stop attacking her weight now
In truth we've been spoilt the last couple of years.
Trump doubles down, again. Is he completly bonkers?
"Nobody's got a good word for you. But I have -
..........."
The Uk needs to be outside the EU single market so that it is not subject to the freedom of movement rules - a political reason.
Which, coincidentally, is a fair analogy of how some parts of the country see immigration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihO5KootGjY