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  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,744



    Leaving 'now' isn't on offer by anybody. It's a long drawn out process no matter what so if a new treaty might be on the agenda it's in our interests to take it seriously.

    If you took the trouble to read what I actually wrote rather than what you think I wrote....

    Okay, nice and simple for you.

    Sarkozy isn't in a position to offer anyone anything until and unless he is elected French President next year. We won't be able to wait until then to instigate the A50 process so while his proposal might be picked up by someone else, the truth is we are seeking to leave and voted to leave. The June 23rd vote was NOT a negotiating tactic to get a better treaty - it was clear and unmistakable vote to be rid of the whole enterprise.

    His treaty might be the basis of a future admission by a future Government to rejoin the EU but it hasn't much value apart from getting one or two people on here quite excited.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Gawd, the BBC's online coverage on the US election is absolute drivel. They seem obsessed with this stupid frog meme thing, and have daily articles on the matter.

    And Skittles...another article today.

    At least they have stopped with the daily articles on Fabric nightclub closing.
    I'm just glad I use a proxy on my computer, it's only on the phone I have to put up with the constant crap!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    MTimT said:

    Wow!! Senate votes to override Obama's veto of the 9/11 Bill by 97-1. Harry Reid was the only nay.

    :o that was unexpected, surely? Hasn't he vetoed a similar bill?
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    stodge said:

    His treaty might be the basis of a future admission by a future Government to rejoin the EU but it hasn't much value apart from getting one or two people on here quite excited.

    Hopefully we won't fall for that!

    EU 2: This time it's different*.

    * Terms and conditions may apply.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MTimT said:

    Wow!! Senate votes to override Obama's veto of the 9/11 Bill by 97-1. Harry Reid was the only nay.

    What was the bill?
    JASTA, very bad news that will enable litigants in the US to over ride the doctrine of Sovereign Immunity. The UK and, indeed, the entire EU have been quietly lobbying against it since it was first proposed. Obama was correct to veto it.

    Congress overturning the veto will not end well for the USA or anyone else.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Wow!! Senate votes to override Obama's veto of the 9/11 Bill by 97-1. Harry Reid was the only nay.

    :o that was unexpected, surely? Hasn't he vetoed a similar bill?
    Yes. This was the vote to overturn that veto. The House is expected to follow suit, and so there will be nothing Obama can do to stop it becoming law.
  • Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    Trump's lucky he has two more goes. We now have a baseline for how Trump and Clinton interact together on the same stage. Hillary was clearly on top of her game last time whereas he has room for improvement so the narrative could play to his advantage.

    Big mistake, the first debate always gets the biggest audience, even if Trump gets a win in the other two he will gain less than what Hillary got in the first one.

    Trump should listen to his lawyers, after all Hillary is a lawyer, he also needs acting lessons big time.

    It's no coincidence that Lawyers (every President since WW2 except Eisenhower and Reagan was a lawyer) and Actors (like Reagan) are most succesful in politics, it's their vocation to deceive people whether it's the audience or the jury.
    Truman not a lawyer
    Bush I not a lawyer
    Bush II not a lawyer
    Carter not a lawyer
    LBJ not a lawyer
    Could you please stop commenting on American politics, it embarrasses the site.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Wow!! Senate votes to override Obama's veto of the 9/11 Bill by 97-1. Harry Reid was the only nay.

    :o that was unexpected, surely? Hasn't he vetoed a similar bill?
    Yes. This was the vote to overturn that veto. The House is expected to follow suit, and so there will be nothing Obama can do to stop it becoming law.
    Should have used the pocket veto!
  • Mr. D, no idea if that's a silly comment or not, but what's a pocket veto?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited September 2016
    619 said:

    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)

    Previous was in July (21-22)

    Clinton 42
    Trump 41
    Johnson 3

    with 752 LVs.

    Looks like Trump -2, Clinton +2
  • MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?
    Or Apple.

    Just to remind, they are building a 3,000 person office despite only having around a thousand office based workers in the UK currently. No one invests money on space they aren't going to use.

    Apple already has offices in other parts of the single market.

  • taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited September 2016

    Mr. D, no idea if that's a silly comment or not, but what's a pocket veto?

    Where the President refuses to sign/veto the bill, they just pocket it.
  • 619 said:

    Trump's lucky he has two more goes. We now have a baseline for how Trump and Clinton interact together on the same stage. Hillary was clearly on top of her game last time whereas he has room for improvement so the narrative could play to his advantage.

    i dont think clinton was top of her game. Trump was just terrible and she was much better!
    Naturally, as you're a Clinton ramper (though you rarely have a good word to say about her).
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    RobD said:

    619 said:

    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)

    Previous was in July (21-22)

    Clinton 42
    Trump 41
    Johnson 3

    with 752 LVs.

    Looks like Trump -2, Clinton +2
    so, 4 point swing in the two polls so far. could be a more significant bump than i thought
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    If, as I expect, May agrees Brexit and immigration controls based on a job offer being needed to come to the UK for some form of single market access that will not be enough for the most hardcore Leavers. I could see election 2020 giving a result something like Tory 35% Labour 28% UKIP 18% LD 10% as a result. That would see UKIP gain 3 seats from the Tories, Thurrock, Thanet South and Boston and maybe Hartlepool from Labour, giving them 5 seats if they hold Clacton
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)

    Previous was in July (21-22)

    Clinton 42
    Trump 41
    Johnson 3

    with 752 LVs.

    Looks like Trump -2, Clinton +2
    so, 4 point swing in the two polls so far. could be a more significant bump than i thought
    Except the old Echelon poll is so old that it is hard to know if the bump is even bigger or not as big.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    619 said:

    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)

    No big swing to Clinton then, though she has slightly increased her lead. Trump will hope for a better performance in the second debate to get things back closer to level pegging
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Speedy said:

    Trump's lucky he has two more goes. We now have a baseline for how Trump and Clinton interact together on the same stage. Hillary was clearly on top of her game last time whereas he has room for improvement so the narrative could play to his advantage.

    Big mistake, the first debate always gets the biggest audience, even if Trump gets a win in the other two he will gain less than what Hillary got in the first one.

    Trump should listen to his lawyers, after all Hillary is a lawyer, he also needs acting lessons big time.

    It's no coincidence that Lawyers (every President since WW2 except Eisenhower and Reagan was a lawyer) and Actors (like Reagan) are most succesful in politics, it's their vocation to deceive people whether it's the audience or the jury.
    Truman not a lawyer
    Bush I not a lawyer
    Bush II not a lawyer
    Carter not a lawyer
    LBJ not a lawyer
    Could you please stop commenting on American politics, it embarrasses the site.
    JFK not a lawyer

    So, to recap, 12 US presidents since WWII - 4 lawyers, 8 non-lawyers
  • Mr. HYUFD, Labour could under-perform that. UKIP got a stack of second places and, depending on demographics, they might do better.

    I think your prediction on how the negotiations may go is one of the more likely possibilities.

    Mr. D, thanks for that answer.

    So... why didn't Obama just do that? Incompetence?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    Ukip may be able to make progress against Labour in WWC areas, but most of the majorities they are up against are still so big that it's probably a long game for them - if they are skilfully led and avoid falling to pieces, of course!

    I don't think that they'll get very far trying to win Commons seats off the Tories. The Ukip party hierarchy has already suffered high profile defections (back to) the Tories, who will be working hard to marginalise Ukip and unite the Right, and the appetite for a populist party with some borrowed Old Labour clothes in its wardrobe will be finite amongst the pragmatic middle classes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    If Corbyn wins, will the last one out of the country in 2020 please remember to turn off the lights....

    If Corbyn wins in 2020 I expect half of PB will be posting from Australia!
  • taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.

    Great news! We'll see how it pans out if we leave the single market.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited September 2016

    Apple already has offices in other parts of the single market.

    The UK is way too important for Apple to pull up sticks. Their marketshare here is about two times what it is in other European countries. Due in large part to the relative ease of rolling out news things to the UK.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Mr. HYUFD, Labour could under-perform that. UKIP got a stack of second places and, depending on demographics, they might do better.

    I think your prediction on how the negotiations may go is one of the more likely possibilities.

    Mr. D, thanks for that answer.

    So... why didn't Obama just do that? Incompetence?

    It's an important point of principle on two levels: Executive Prerogative and Sovereign Immunity. Not exactly issues a President should be silent on.

    I wonder, can the Administration take the issue to the Supreme Court on constitutional grounds?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Pulpstar said:

    jonny83 said:

    No olive branches, this division is just going to rumble on and on. I guess from his perspective why would he reflect on what's happened the past year, he has won and he damn well knows it.

    He wont face anymore leadership challenges, the party has been taken over and with the rules in place Corbyn will only go when he chooses to. A hammering in 2020 will probably still keep him in post. It's a movement to him, in his view getting his party back to where he thinks it belongs, he doesn't really care about power.

    I have no love whatsoever for Labour but I do value and believe in a strong opposition to keep governments on their toes and in check. Otherwise you get complacency and stupid policies with nobody to challenge them. On no level whatsoever does Corbyns labour provide a credible alternative.

    I'd be very surprised if Corbyn stays on after being beaten in 2020.

    Lewis, McDonnell, Thornberry or some other bod will take over.
    It'll be Richard Burgon.
    Clive Lewis if he gets on the ballot
    To the average Corbynista Clive Lewis is now a Tory after he backed Trident this week
  • Mr. Rook, that is true.

    On the other hand, big majorities fell beneath the SNP tsunami.

    Politics has been very turbulent ever since Brown's bottled 2007 election. In under a decade we've gone from a Labour Party with a comfortable majority to it being led by Corbyn, potentially over a cliff. Labour's Scottish bastion has become mostly SNP, and we're (perhaps) leaving the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    MTimT said:

    Given the source, perhaps Gideon will see this as a compliment!

    "George Osborne will be remembered as a "particularly inept" chancellor whose pursuit of austerity in an attempt to rein in Britain's deficit was doomed to failure, according to Yanis Varoufakis."

    I think now we are split between Osborne was a bad chancellor who failed on his own terms, or Osborne always knew he was spouting drivel in order to attack Labour.
    Nah, he was just middling, that is to say, pretty crappy, but not exceptionally so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Mr. HYUFD, Labour could under-perform that. UKIP got a stack of second places and, depending on demographics, they might do better.

    I think your prediction on how the negotiations may go is one of the more likely possibilities.

    Mr. D, thanks for that answer.

    So... why didn't Obama just do that? Incompetence?

    Sorry, my bad, he can only use that mechanism if Congress is going to be dissolved.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pocket_veto
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Speedy said:

    I think we are heading back to the area of a Hillary landslide victory.

    Hillary has already reached her all time high of 47% on my average daily tracking poll, Trump is still at around 43.5% but the debate plus the Miss Universe controversy will probably beat him back down to 40 where he was in early August.

    Trump had a chance to become President, but no, he never wanted to prepare for the debate and he had to attack random people.

    Even a 3 or 4 point Clinton lead, which is what the latest polls show, is in no way a landslide. Remember too Remain had a 4 point lead in many of the final EU ref polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is there anyone who doesn't want a general election in May 2017?

    Isn't a French presidential election and German federal elections enough for 2017? And why should I spend 60 days looking at 60 youGov polls all telling me the same (wrong) information?

    In truth we've been spoilt the last couple of years.
    We have the first rounds of the Socialist and Les Republicains coming up too. LR is in November; the Socialists on 22 January. Will Macron stand? Will Hollande fight off Valls? Will Juppe beat Sarkozy?
    Given France's system I'm fascinated by the idea that a Trump-style non politician could step in and catapult themselves to the Presidency.
    Allegedly Macron is considering running as an Independent, rather than for the Socialist nomination.
    Macron is running for his new centrist party, not as a Socialist, the Socialist primary is presently between Hollande and Montebourg
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    If, as I expect, May agrees Brexit and immigration controls based on a job offer being needed to come to the UK for some form of single market access that will not be enough for the most hardcore Leavers. I could see election 2020 giving a result something like Tory 35% Labour 28% UKIP 18% LD 10% as a result. That would see UKIP gain 3 seats from the Tories, Thurrock, Thanet South and Boston and maybe Hartlepool from Labour, giving them 5 seats if they hold Clacton
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
    OK, I promise I'll not mention this on this site again. TM can agree whatever sort of restrictions on people coming into the UK she likes, but unless there is an efficient mechanism for removing those that have entered or remained against those new rules it will not make a happenth of differnece.

    From memory there were a bit less than 13,000 removals last year.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2016

    taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.

    Great news! We'll see how it pans out if we leave the single market.

    Did they not stipulate in the announcement that their plans were independent of the Brexit decision as most of the product will be exported outside of the EU? Or did I remember that incorrectly?
  • Mr. T, not up on this sort of thing, but ignoring sovereign immunity or overriding it doesn't necessarily seem like a terribly good idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Mr. HYUFD, Labour could under-perform that. UKIP got a stack of second places and, depending on demographics, they might do better.

    I think your prediction on how the negotiations may go is one of the more likely possibilities.

    Mr. D, thanks for that answer.

    So... why didn't Obama just do that? Incompetence?

    If UKIP overperform and Labour underperform, UKIP could pick up Heywood and Middleton and Dagenham too
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mr. Rook, that is true.

    On the other hand, big majorities fell beneath the SNP tsunami.

    Politics has been very turbulent ever since Brown's bottled 2007 election. In under a decade we've gone from a Labour Party with a comfortable majority to it being led by Corbyn, potentially over a cliff. Labour's Scottish bastion has become mostly SNP, and we're (perhaps) leaving the EU.

    The Scottish situation was exceptional, due to the referendum. And the SNP had, of course, been building progressively in strength and political competence for decades, and was the party of Government in Scotland by the time the great landslides of this May and last were achieved.

    Ukip are a minor party that have yet to demonstrate that they can break through a relatively low ceiling of support, save for in European elections which are also exceptional.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Mr. T, not up on this sort of thing, but ignoring sovereign immunity or overriding it doesn't necessarily seem like a terribly good idea.

    Indeed not. US citizens have the most to lose
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Mr. T, not up on this sort of thing, but ignoring sovereign immunity or overriding it doesn't necessarily seem like a terribly good idea.

    It will be interesting to see how Americans go about explaining why they should still have sovereign immunity whilst in effect abolishing it for other countries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2016

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    Ukip may be able to make progress against Labour in WWC areas, but most of the majorities they are up against are still so big that it's probably a long game for them - if they are skilfully led and avoid falling to pieces, of course!

    I don't think that they'll get very far trying to win Commons seats off the Tories. The Ukip party hierarchy has already suffered high profile defections (back to) the Tories, who will be working hard to marginalise Ukip and unite the Right, and the appetite for a populist party with some borrowed Old Labour clothes in its wardrobe will be finite amongst the pragmatic middle classes.
    The 3 Tory seats UKIP have a real chance of gaining, Boston and Skegness, Thurrock and Thanet South are all filled with the lower middle class and skilled working class rather than the upper middle class and indeed Thurrock was Labour from 1992 to 2010 and Thanet South from 1997 to 2010
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump's lucky he has two more goes. We now have a baseline for how Trump and Clinton interact together on the same stage. Hillary was clearly on top of her game last time whereas he has room for improvement so the narrative could play to his advantage.

    Big mistake, the first debate always gets the biggest audience, even if Trump gets a win in the other two he will gain less than what Hillary got in the first one.

    Trump should listen to his lawyers, after all Hillary is a lawyer, he also needs acting lessons big time.

    It's no coincidence that Lawyers (every President since WW2 except Eisenhower and Reagan was a lawyer) and Actors (like Reagan) are most succesful in politics, it's their vocation to deceive people whether it's the audience or the jury.
    Truman not a lawyer
    Bush I not a lawyer
    Bush II not a lawyer
    Carter not a lawyer
    LBJ not a lawyer
    Could you please stop commenting on American politics, it embarrasses the site.
    JFK not a lawyer

    So, to recap, 12 US presidents since WWII - 4 lawyers, 8 non-lawyers
    Speedy was talking about success. Carter and Bush 1 were both 1 termers. Sad. Bush 2 had to rely on lawyers to secure the Election for him so laywer by proxy.

    JFK, well, I don't think anyone would want their presidency to end that way.

    I have to say Speedy's thesis looks sound.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.

    Great news! We'll see how it pans out if we leave the single market.

    Straw-clutching there I think, Mr. Observer. If I recall the correctly the Honda bloke said that the increased investment in Swindon was their plan before the Referendum and remains their plan after it.

    You will run your business as you think best, obviously, but not every other business seems to agree with your view.
  • Mr. glw, well, quite.

    Would Pakistani, Afghan etc families sue the US for drone strikes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    If, as I expect, May agrees Brexit and immigration controls based on a job offer being needed to come to the UK for some form of single market access that will not be enough for the most hardcore Leavers. I could see election 2020 giving a result something like Tory 35% Labour 28% UKIP 18% LD 10% as a result. That would see UKIP gain 3 seats from the Tories, Thurrock, Thanet South and Boston and maybe Hartlepool from Labour, giving them 5 seats if they hold Clacton
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
    OK, I promise I'll not mention this on this site again. TM can agree whatever sort of restrictions on people coming into the UK she likes, but unless there is an efficient mechanism for removing those that have entered or remained against those new rules it will not make a happenth of differnece.

    From memory there were a bit less than 13,000 removals last year.
    Those already in the UK will certainly not be evicted short of committing a crime so that may provide a further boost for UKIP amongst the minority who want them to be removed
  • Pulpstar said:

    I sincerely hope this lady is wrong otherwise I fear the effects on the younger generation are going to be horrendous and, long-term, the social and economic effects are going to be even worse.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/28/qe-is-here-forever-says-bank-of-england-deputy-governor/

    That is mind blowingly stupid.
    Possibly, Mr. Star, but the lady has been a Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and is about to go and lead the LSE where she will be responsible for training a whole new generation of economists.
    What else to expect from someone who has only ever worked in government bodies, the World Bank, DFID, IMF etc.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.

    Great news! We'll see how it pans out if we leave the single market.

    I understand the concern, but it seems very strange that - given the uncertainty that naturally arises from the Brexit decision - a large and competently run corporation would be willing to make major capital investments in UK manufacturing plants, UNLESS one of the following circumstances were applicable:

    1. They think the advantages of building here already outweigh any likely disadvantages from a hard Brexit, or...
    2. The Government has already given secret assurances of further assistance post-Brexit, possibly in the form of significant tax breaks

    The weakness of the Opposition certainly gives the Government considerable latitude to modify its economic policies whilst minimising the risk of electoral fallout. Lower business taxation could readily be financed by additional borrowing and/or public spending cuts.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I think we are heading back to the area of a Hillary landslide victory.

    Hillary has already reached her all time high of 47% on my average daily tracking poll, Trump is still at around 43.5% but the debate plus the Miss Universe controversy will probably beat him back down to 40 where he was in early August.

    Trump had a chance to become President, but no, he never wanted to prepare for the debate and he had to attack random people.

    Even a 3 or 4 point Clinton lead, which is what the latest polls show, is in no way a landslide. Remember too Remain had a 4 point lead in many of the final EU ref polls
    But who are going to be the little old ladies who swung it for Leave?
  • HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I think we are heading back to the area of a Hillary landslide victory.

    Hillary has already reached her all time high of 47% on my average daily tracking poll, Trump is still at around 43.5% but the debate plus the Miss Universe controversy will probably beat him back down to 40 where he was in early August.

    Trump had a chance to become President, but no, he never wanted to prepare for the debate and he had to attack random people.

    Even a 3 or 4 point Clinton lead, which is what the latest polls show, is in no way a landslide. Remember too Remain had a 4 point lead in many of the final EU ref polls
    10% lead with the wonderful Populus. Very popular it was at number 10 until 2am...
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

    Clinton 47
    Trump 42

    Clinton 44
    Trump 39
    Johnson 7
    Stein 3
    McMullin 2

    1,529 LVs (Internet)

    Previous was in July (21-22)

    Clinton 42
    Trump 41
    Johnson 3

    with 752 LVs.

    Looks like Trump -2, Clinton +2
    so, 4 point swing in the two polls so far. could be a more significant bump than i thought
    I know Americans do it differently (and your comment proves you're American) - but here in the UK we actually look at half the change, since if we had 100 voters , 52 vote Clinton and 48 vote trump and 2 change their vote then we have 54 Clinton and 46 Trump - so the swing is 2 voters out of 100 although the difference is 4.
  • taffys said:

    ''Obviously, morons like the Three Amigos do not understand this, or do not think it is important, but I imagine it is keeping both the PM and the CoE up at night with worry. ''

    This has been threatened from day one, and yet the number of companies doing it after three months has been precisely zero, whilst at the same time the UK gets vote of confidence after vote of confidence from companies like Aldi and Apple.

    That's because we are still a part of the single market and may remain a part of it, to all intents and purposes.

    It will make no difference to companies that want to sell to the UK market or which already have offices inside the single market. It's the companies that use the UK as their base for sales into the single market that will be watching and waiting.

    Like Honda?

    Yep.

    But Honda announced big new investment in their UK plant just a week or so ago.
    Ah but was that before we have actually left the EU so may not count in the post 23rd June Project Fear batshitcrazy statements?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Alistair said:

    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump's lucky he has two more goes. We now have a baseline for how Trump and Clinton interact together on the same stage. Hillary was clearly on top of her game last time whereas he has room for improvement so the narrative could play to his advantage.

    Big mistake, the first debate always gets the biggest audience, even if Trump gets a win in the other two he will gain less than what Hillary got in the first one.

    Trump should listen to his lawyers, after all Hillary is a lawyer, he also needs acting lessons big time.

    It's no coincidence that Lawyers (every President since WW2 except Eisenhower and Reagan was a lawyer) and Actors (like Reagan) are most succesful in politics, it's their vocation to deceive people whether it's the audience or the jury.
    Truman not a lawyer
    Bush I not a lawyer
    Bush II not a lawyer
    Carter not a lawyer
    LBJ not a lawyer
    Could you please stop commenting on American politics, it embarrasses the site.
    JFK not a lawyer

    So, to recap, 12 US presidents since WWII - 4 lawyers, 8 non-lawyers
    Speedy was talking about success. Carter and Bush 1 were both 1 termers. Sad. Bush 2 had to rely on lawyers to secure the Election for him so laywer by proxy.

    JFK, well, I don't think anyone would want their presidency to end that way.

    I have to say Speedy's thesis looks sound.
    No, he didn't caveat the statement:

    "... that Lawyers (every President since WW2 except Eisenhower and Reagan was a lawyer)..."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I think we are heading back to the area of a Hillary landslide victory.

    Hillary has already reached her all time high of 47% on my average daily tracking poll, Trump is still at around 43.5% but the debate plus the Miss Universe controversy will probably beat him back down to 40 where he was in early August.

    Trump had a chance to become President, but no, he never wanted to prepare for the debate and he had to attack random people.

    Even a 3 or 4 point Clinton lead, which is what the latest polls show, is in no way a landslide. Remember too Remain had a 4 point lead in many of the final EU ref polls
    But who are going to be the little old ladies who swung it for Leave?
    It was the white working class who swung it for Leave by turning out, little old ladies were already for Leave and always turn out to vote
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    I think we are heading back to the area of a Hillary landslide victory.

    Hillary has already reached her all time high of 47% on my average daily tracking poll, Trump is still at around 43.5% but the debate plus the Miss Universe controversy will probably beat him back down to 40 where he was in early August.

    Trump had a chance to become President, but no, he never wanted to prepare for the debate and he had to attack random people.

    Even a 3 or 4 point Clinton lead, which is what the latest polls show, is in no way a landslide. Remember too Remain had a 4 point lead in many of the final EU ref polls
    10% lead with the wonderful Populus. Very popular it was at number 10 until 2am...
    Indeed and Farage even mentioned it at the Trump rally
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, between UKIP, the Lib Dems and Communism, there's a huge centre ground upon which the Conservatives can frolic. If they can resist the urge to engage in backbiting and internal warfare.

    May's shifted somewhat leftward already. With more votes from Labour up for grabs, a sizeable right flank might open up for UKIP. Mind you, they had a very nice strategic position in 2015 and achieved a grand total of one seat.

    If, as I expect, May agrees Brexit and immigration controls based on a job offer being needed to come to the UK for some form of single market access that will not be enough for the most hardcore Leavers. I could see election 2020 giving a result something like Tory 35% Labour 28% UKIP 18% LD 10% as a result. That would see UKIP gain 3 seats from the Tories, Thurrock, Thanet South and Boston and maybe Hartlepool from Labour, giving them 5 seats if they hold Clacton
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
    OK, I promise I'll not mention this on this site again. TM can agree whatever sort of restrictions on people coming into the UK she likes, but unless there is an efficient mechanism for removing those that have entered or remained against those new rules it will not make a happenth of differnece.

    From memory there were a bit less than 13,000 removals last year.
    There were a number of voluntary removals too, and most likely a fair number also moved on but are not recorded due to our lack of exit checks.

    The first thing we need to reinstate exit checks. Many illegals are overstayers. Something that could have been introduced at any point in Mrs May's 6 years at the Home Office.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2016
    20 mins in of CH4 news. Have I missed their coverage of Jezza's big speech? I don't think it has been mentioned yet?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    20 mins in of CH4 news. Have I missed their coverage of Jezza's big speech?

    Coming next...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    To be fair Big Sam won 100% of England matches while in charge!
This discussion has been closed.