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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed
EdM no longer on the danger list
The Speccie's James Forsyth has a good summary of PMQS
http://t.co/Vrgk69UawN pic.twitter.com/NnEl9MTGgr
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Whatever!
Labour seem unable to find the correct balance. At one time their leaders were at the whim of a Union dominated Conference, something that clearly led to weak leadership. To prevent that they have removed much of their internal democracy making the postion of the leader, once elected, almost impregnable. Neither are really ideal solutions.
Kate Green @KateGreenSU
'We believe the bedroom tax should be dropped and we believe it should be dropped today' @LiamByrneMP
Weak labour ? It seems the labour backbenches getting fed up with ed and ed's follow my tory policy.
I commented some two years ago (when Henry G, other Labour supporters and quite a few journalists were predicting Ed would be defenestrated) that the only possible way Ed M might be displaced would be if he personally felt he should go. I also commented that this was extremely unlikely because he didn't lack self-belief. I was right then and nothing has changed, except that if anything I underestimated Ed's self-belief, which from the barbed comments of Tom Watson and others seems to be not self-belief but complacency.
PM believes Ed Miliband will not survive as polling day approaches
Plans to target shadow health secretary Andy Burnham over Mid-Staffs
Row over union influence has destabilised Labour leadership
Tories buoyed by EU unity, Qatada deportation and economic growth
Cameron and Miliband again clash at PMQs over party funding
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2359310/Cameron-thinks-battle-unions-Miliband-ousted-Labour-leader-2015-election.html
For Cameron's strategy (read: Crosby's strategy) to work, he's relying on the continued effect of "union" as an unquestioningly evil slur, like calling someone "communist" or "fascist". It was possible to use it in that way with moderate success in the 80s given the events of the previous decade, but I'm not at all convinced that union-hatred is a majority pursuit in the UK these days, or even one that reaches far outside the core Tory-UKIP vote. I wonder whether Crosby's Australian mindset, and the existing Conservative inner circle's admiration of all things American has led to an over-estimation of the impact of the "union puppet" slur.
Has anyone seen any polling on this? An interesting question would be to assess the reaction to "controlled by a few rich people" and "controlled by unions". My expectation, based on an entirely unscientific method of talking to my mates, would be that more people would consider the former quality to reduce their chances of voting for a party than the latter. The hard-right, unions-are-evil-the-market-is-good population is a lot smaller than the faction who feel that a few very wealthy people are profiting at the benefit of ordinary people (bear in mind that for much of the population anyone earning over £50k comes into this category).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9876685/David-Cameron-I-did-not-appoint-enough-women-to-Cabinet.html
Why? Is it erratic bowling, the nature of the pitch, very aggressive fielding positions by the Australians looking for wickets or a failure of the English batsmen to rotate the strike?
However, I doubt if anyone senior in the Conservative Party seriously thinks that Ed will be chucked out. More more likely is that the Ray Collins review will be stitched up so nothing changes. Having the review done by an ex-union boss who created Unite pretty much guarantees that.
But a victory it is.
Lol - o-not so-gh flags me for off topic. Clearly any criticism brings punishment!
'Cameron and Conservative strategists are living in cloud cuckoo land . If they are basing their campaign strategy on EdM being replaced they are making an elementary error '
I would imagine that's the last thing they want.
The moment of truth
History suggests it is time for Ed Miliband to make his move
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21572226-history-suggests-it-time-ed-miliband-make-his-move-moment-truth
Before you labour supporters get excited,this from the article -
Although his score improved in 2012 (in part because of the coalition’s deep and unpopular spending cuts), a Cameronesque mid-term breakthrough eludes him. His ratings most closely resemble those of his party’s two-time election loser, Neil Kinnock.
;-)
"There was initial confusion over the policy today after Labour suggested that MPs who currently hold company directorships may be able to keep them.
However, the party later toughened up its stance and announced that an MP will not be able to stand for the Labour Party in 2015 if they have outside earnings of more than 15 per cent of their total income.
The tough new measures could affect Labour heavyweights including Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister.
The Labour reforms could also put pressure on former Cabinet minister including David Blunkett and Jack Straw, who both have lucrative outside interests.
The intention is that no Labour MP will have a second job by the time of the next election."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10171640/Miliband-will-ban-MPs-from-having-lucrative-second-jobs-by-2015.html
chris g @chrisg0000
#BBC authorised redundancy payments to managers 3 or 4 times what they were entitled to, Human Resources head is paid £300,000 per annum
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
BBC HR head suggests outgoing exec Roly Keating sought severance payment because he had new job lined up - but it would pay less
"Ian Bell now averages 21 in 16 Test innings against Australia in England. That's against an overall Test average of over 45."
Will she get a nice pay off ?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/philipaldrick/100025144/the-co-op-bank-is-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
All of the above ?
'However, the party later toughened up its stance and announced that an MP will not be able to stand for the Labour Party in 2015 if they have outside earnings of more than 15 per cent of their total income.'
Does Labour's latest u-turn include income from property and investments?
You forget to mention the leftie troughers.
'David Miliband's outside earnings top £200k | Left Futures
www.leftfutures.org/2011/.../david-milibands-outside-earnings-top-200k...
May 31, 2011 - David Miliband's earnings from outside parliament this year now exceed £200,000. These earnings include: £25,000 for a lecture in Abu Dhabi; ...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23258630
Why do people keep asking this? It might be good policy or bad policy, but it doesn't seem to be particularly difficult policy to understand. Am I missing some nuance or getout in the announcements?
But then he said Falkirk was overblown.
He also has posted over 100 times on party funding in 2 days after never mentioning in 3 years.
He's predictable if not consistent
'Alexandra' now at 6/4 to lay.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/special-bets/market?id=1.107689204
follow me in, if you dare.
Liam Byrne says Labour would "drop" the spare room subsidy. Means £500 million more spending and borrowing in 2015-16
Labour have a policy and I agree with it.(if true)
It's not control of Labour by the Unions that is a problem, but control of Labour by a trio of Union leaders (Unite, GMB, Unison). I would guess that there are a few more than three rich people providing funds to the Tories.
From what I can tell from some of the detail the Miliband plan is therefore a wizard idea - it appears to involve giving Union members the option of donating their political levy directly to Labour, bypassing the Union leadership. If he can pull that off then he safeguards Union donations from a cap, because they will become large numbers of small individual donations, rather than small numbers of large donations, and he will neuter the Union leaders.
Was last night's Channel 4 documentary on the Piper Alpha disaster worth watching?
"Cheshire Farmer is getting very excited about Hague voicing an opinion...must be the biggest rabbit so far this week.."
So "Stupid woman" is fair comment if accurate? I wonder whether the Hague admirers would be as sanguine if one or two of the Tory posteresses on here were similarly abused?
Taxpayers subsidising political parties,could anyone come up with a more unpopular idea?
"follow me in, if you dare."
I'm hoping for Tracey Dutchess of Scunthorpe
At that stage, comparing the slogans of "one person one vote" with "one pound one vote" would probably give a favourable outcome to any accusations of union control.
Would a £5,000 cap really present a serious problem?
Maybe that's why it was dropped.
Want to discuss hypocricy now?.
'So "Stupid woman" is fair comment if accurate?'
You must have been outside the country or deaf to have missed the misogyny and general abuse from your comrades when Thatcher died..
Dave needs to just call Ed's bluff on wanting to distance Labour from the unions and the whole idea will come crashing down. £3m per year from Unite tells me that Ed is all talk.
In the last five ashes series England have started very poorly. They got away with it in 09 (just) and 10/11 because the Australian attack was not up to taking 20 wickets. This year their fast bowlers look a lot better. On that basis I'd make Australia slight favourites.
That's why Miliband feels able to gazump Cameron with a £5,000 cap, rather than a £50k one.
'King Keith I"
Off the top of my head the Tory party's current donation structure would struggle with a £5k limit, relies far more donors on up nearer £50k.
I'd imagine if they thought they could spread it out with even a £10k cap they'd leap at the opportunity if the could end the Union exemption. As it is, they haven't.
Of course there is an inherent turkeys and Christmas bias against parties voting for any measure that'd end up with them less money.
A story from four and a half years ago
You know, when Ed Miliband was sorting out Power Generation as SoS for Energy, and Ed Balls was sorting out Education by presiding over ever-increasing grades.....
It ain't gonna be a draw. :-)
the basics of money driving politics has been with us for several millenia. Ed Dave and Nick can't and won't stop it, all they can do is try to rig the system so it favours them. Hence £5k favours Ed since he hopes to exclude Union freebies and Cameron wants it higher since he can get more cash than Labour.
The moral posturing atm is just laughable.
What is totally predictable is your negativity when it comes to sport, Of course you are quite right to be pessimistic about England Cricket , after all they did very badly in 2005,2009.2010, I mean it was a fecking disaster.
There's a venn diagram somewhere with the pessimism of Spurs fans overlapping with the pessimism of English cricket fans.
I've a feeling you're at the epicentre of it.
You don't know many Spurs fans do you?! It's not pessimism, it's realism born of years of experience.
In the first game of the last six Ashes series now England have been largely outplayed and/or beaten. We got away with it the last two times because the Australian bowlers were not good enough. This time they look a lot better and our batting looks as fragile as ever. Hopefully our bowlers can dig us out of the hole, but the pitch looks decent enough.
Fortunately for the blues, cousins fall outside most definitions...