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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chancellor Philip Hammond is said to believe that for the moment he is unsackable
Chancellor Phillip Hammond – said by @jameskirkup to be as emerging as the "Real leader of the opposition" – listening to his leader pic.twitter.com/KXeZwo3zN3
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"Philip Hammond has yet to find a room he cannot empty, and once news of his arrival in the chamber had been confirmed, barely a dozen Conservatives bothered to join him.
That figure went steadily down the longer Hammond spoke. Forty minutes into his hour-long speech – at exactly the moment the foreign secretary declared himself a prominent and charismatic leader of the remain campaign – a door banged. A pistol shot quickly followed. Such events are not uncommon when Hammond is at the dispatch box."
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ADVANTAGES of REMAINING in CUSTOM UNION
1. Tariff -free transit of industrial goods with the EU/EEA (but not services or agriculture)
2. Ready-made set of free trade agreements with third party countries already negotiated by the EU. DIY will result in a long gap while the new deals are negotiated. The EU has more market clout than the UK to get better deals
3. Much lower burden of red tape as exporters with supply chains don’t require origination certification for the components nor for finished products
4. UK negotiators can concentrate on the key EU and WTO arrangements. They are spread too thin to take on third country negotiations as well.
5. Early commitment to a Customs Union would remove uncertainty for investment in UK industrials (think Nissan in Sunderland).
6. BONUS advantage! Possible redundancy for Liam Fox. The UK would still be able to negotiate Free Trade Agreements with third countries, but is presumably constrained to the import tariffs already set by the EU.
ADVANTAGES of LEAVING the CUSTOM UNION
1. The UK can unilaterally reduce its import duties allowing them to compete better with EU countries on price for finished products to third countries
2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so have a higher chance of success than the EU does.
Is that a fair summary? If so, an early commitment to the EU Customs Union is compelling, because there are more advantages and more immediately useful ones. The politics may say otherwise of course. What do people think?
Oh, sorry - wrong thread!
I wonder if Hammond is kicking himself for not running for the leadership? Hammond v May in a members' ballot would have been interesting - he could certainly have portrayed himself as the safe pair of hands to lead the Brexit negotiations. Back in the real world, we have an autumn statement coming up - let's see how it squares with the rhetoric from conference.
Does this mean that the final barrier in front of Heathrow expansion has been demolished?
(The research was apparently independent of both the government and airport. As it was done by Cambridge University, it is obviously utterly correct and immune to criticism).
I quite like Hammond. He doesn't have the narrow minded self-righteousness of the Vicar's daughter.
I suspect the headbangers would rather he was replaced with someone like John Redwood
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-s-speech-unspun-t6kbmc5ds
Perhaps. Mind you, they said the Titanic was unsinkable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37571364
I don't normally read Me and My Spoon in @PrivateEyeNews but the Corbyn one is superb. https://t.co/rxDALou0Vl
Anyway it's good if PMs have ministers who stand up to them - or they end up like Thatcher.
If what she is true to what she has set forward, and I agree we have to wait and see if the action matches the words on that one, it feels refreshing to have a leader that is attempting to inject some sort of moral dimension into politics rather just the short termist tactical game playing we got from the likes of Osborne. It will be interesting to see how the nation reacts to a move from a Liberal Conservative leader to one who appears to be at heart a Christian Democrat.
My sense is she will be extremely popular in the rural and provincial areas, could be very popular in the Blue Labour areas if she delivers even half of what she has promised, and is going to be very unpopular in the metropolitan and guardian reading circles because they are too right-on and impressed with their own cleverness to take kindly to other people, never mind a Tory, suggesting a moral direction to them.
17.4 million - 16.1 million
"In early August 2016, the BBC announced that plans to remake the series had been scrapped due to the possibility of viewers complaining about Gestapo officer Herr Flick, despite regularly showing the original episodes on its channels"
If accurate, sounds bonkers to me. But there we are.
Edited extra bit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/'Allo_'Allo!#Allo_Allo_remake_cancelled
Being in a strong enough position to debate policy with the PM is hardly arrogance.
And it's not as though he's publicly trying to bounce the PM into a particular direction on Europe, unlike the absurd Liam Fox...
By re-creating the great Victorian Agricultural Depression*, we would need far fewer East European farm labourers, and all the disused agricultural land would become availible for housing.
If May is serious about helping the (urban) working classes then this is what she should do.
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_of_British_Agriculture?wprov=sfla1
Other ministers who supported Remain also said that they were nervous of speaking out about their fears for the future in front of the enthusiastic pro-Brexit audiences. “It feels like we’ve rewound the clock 20 years. All they really want to know is what John Redwood thinks about it.”
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ad865022-8b3b-11e6-a2fd-acf8ba5605c0
Oh...
[Just begun re-reading Nicias' line to the Athenians about the Sicilian expedition. Hammond's at risk of repeating that error].
"May, by contrast, has a provincial, WI, prayer book, round table, civic conservatism that is parochial but also instinctively compassionate."
Note that Angela Merkel is another daughter of a cleric/vicar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/01/donald-trump-may-be-dangerously-ignorant-but-i-understand-why-am/
Just ask David Cameron (who was essentially "sacked" by the electorate)
“If Remainers had generally shown more interest in those that were left behind we would probably still be in the EU. The result was close enough that there were several factors that made the difference between remaining and leaving. That was one of them.”
If you ignore and treat with contempt the people at the bottom, then you can’t expect them to help you when it comes to a referendum.
It would appear that nothing much has changed.
There is a potential downside in that it could bankrupt farmers across the board. Unlike finance, agriculture has hardly been discussed in the Brexit context. It's a very difficult area and it impacts our WTO negotiations as well as those directly with the EU. There's a real risk of UK farmers being wiped out as they see their gate prices plummet by more than 30%.
I suggest Mayans.
If anything, as PB shows, leavers do that: their general support for grammar schools being a good example. Leave used these people, and cares little for them.
IMO the main reason why the referendum was lost is simple: the EU had an offering that was unsaleable, before and after Cameron's reforms. They thought that decades of putting signs up: "This project funded by the EU." would win them love. MEPs remained faceless and unconnected with their electorate (with one or two notable good exceptions).
In contrast, leave could play on every prejudice and problem faced by people and blame them on the EU, whether the EU was the problem or not.
Your child doesn't have a job? Well, it's obviously the fault of the immigrants, not the fault that he is functionally illiterate and innumerate due to the UK government's failure in education over many generations.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
The study is allegedly independent. But the timing is suspicious. There are many objections to Heathrow. The environmental objection is just one. But it has been highlighted as the major objection and then apparently demolished just before the decision. It does remind me of "Witness for the Prosecution".
Sometime when you're feeling important;
Sometime when your ego 's in bloom;
Sometime when you take it for granted,
You're the best qualified in the room:
Sometime when you feel that your going,
Would leave an unfillable hole,
Just follow these simple instructions,
And see how they humble your soul.
Take a bucket and fill it with water,
Put your hand in it up to the wrist,
Pull it out and the hole that's remaining,
Is a measure of how much you'll be missed.
You can splash all you wish when you enter,
You may stir up the water galore,
But stop, and you'll find that in no time,
It looks quite the same as before.
The moral of this quaint example,
Is to do just the best that you can,
Be proud of yourself but remember,
There's no indispensable man.
I can see why Dave was considering making Hammond Chancellor if Remain had won.
How much of the money spilled out into the Kings Hedges estate? What did they get out of the EU?
It is not difficult to find huge resentment against the EU in Cambridge (even though the city was a Remainer stronghold). Go to the council estates in the east & north of the City.
And that is because the benefits of being in the EU were not shared with them. Instead, the booming population caused housing shortages and soaring rents.
It is a conclusion that tallies broadly with previous research for the government, but that research relied on estimates, whereas this latest work used more accurate, real-world measurements.
Anyway, we shall see.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0720702/quotes?item=qt0245704
However intangibles will have helped them. Many will travel into the city for work, and some of those jobs will have been aided by EU funding - even if it is 'humble' jobs such as cleaning.
You are right: the upward pressure on housing costs is a big problem in Cambridge, and has probably negated the intangibles.
However, most of the problems facing people in that area are little to do with the EU, but much more to do with UK government policy.
"This latest, million-pound research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and alongside Cambridge, experts from the universities of Manchester and Hertfordshire, Imperial College London, CERC Limited and the National Physics lab were involved.
Heathrow helped them put the sensors up and British Airways provided some flight data, but neither handed over any money or were involved in the actual work."
Independent?
Coupled with her plans to effectively deport from Doctors she's a pretty shitty person in my eyes.
You shouldn't believe everything you read in the Guardian!
And what's wrong with having time limits on work permits?
Or is the US the sink of depravity too?
Such a shame.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/theresa-mays-first-tory-conference-as-pm-was-a-love-in-for-the-right/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/05/no-prime-minister-the-government-doesnt-always-know-whats-best/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
And where do you expect them to get flight data from, or to put sensors on Heathrow's land?
However, they didn't vote to get rid of pesky foreigners just for those to flood the market and put them out of business. Rural Conservative MPs will be under a lot of pressure on this. The countryside is genuinely facing the end of a way of life
106,800 fall in Civil Service workforce since 2008 – a drop of 20.3% https://t.co/d3gpTtqIUi
As far as "effectively deporting foreign* Doctors" - oh c'mon, stop with the histrionics - she's hardly lining them up at Heathrow for the next plane out. It has long been something that has sat uncomfortably, that we have basically gone around plundering the world's medical staff, to the detriment of their domestic medicine. If we can train and retain those who enter the profession in the UK, that is a win all round in my book. But it is a policy that is going to take the best part of a decade to bear fruit.
* I presume that "from" was a predictive text error?
I gather you wanted the election after all so you could have had Leadsom then, would her appointments have been less batshit crazy ? Fairly sure the good people of Maidenhead elected her as well.