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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB could get squeezed in Witney and end up with a single figu

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB could get squeezed in Witney and end up with a single figure vote share

Ladbrokes have new Witney market on LAB vote share. If LDs do well, as I think, then they'll be squeezed & sub 10% share possible pic.twitter.com/sY8iFmyd4M

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan Easley of "The Hill" reports on independents breaking for Clinton in post debate Quinnipiac polling (528 adjusted Clinton +8) :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/299830-poll-indies-break-for-clinton-as-national-lead-widens
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Last night's by-elections essentially a tale of 2 Labours. In strong areas, they did really well. In weak areas. But the key seats will be the marginals, and they will fight hard. Corbyn can't win, but Labour won't die.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    Alistair said:

    Trump's "what have you got to lose / what have Clinton's ever done for you / I have created loads of jobs for non-whites" could have won him quite a bit of support among African American's if he didn't have this "minor" issue with saying racist stuff on a daily basis....

    If fact if he had just nicked some of Bernie's sthick, shut up about building a wall and occasionally said hey I said things in the past i regret but I haven't called millions of people deplorable basement dwellers...against the Clinton-Bot-2000 he might have even won.

    Can someone provide any quotes and sources for this apparent anti black racist hate talk he is alleged to be indulging in every day?
    Just yesterday he defended his behaviour over the central park 5.
    I gather he said he thought some black people convicted of a serious crime which was then thrown out were after all guity. Did he call them n*****s, C***s or similar racist language, no.

    Sorry whether he is right or wrong, commenting on a notorious criminal case is not racist unless you use racist language or derogatory racial comments eg implying that such behaviour is only to be expected from [insert race]

    If you want a bogeyword to have shock value dont dilute it to the extent a homeopathic practicioner dilutes a substance in water before administering it.
  • Any idea when Corbyn might bother to finish his reshuffle?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    And Trump really is a knob. Clinton is not good enough, but she really can't lose. Unless, the Americans are really dim...
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Dixie said:

    Last night's by-elections essentially a tale of 2 Labours. In strong areas, they did really well. In weak areas, they did really badly. But the key seats will be the marginals, and they will fight hard. Corbyn can't win, but Labour won't die.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Any idea when Corbyn might bother to finish his reshuffle?

    If he still has to sort out all of the lower ranking positions then he may not be finished before this happens (allegedly):

    https://twitter.com/CllrRobJames/status/784326162742808577

    Hmmm...
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    Dixie said:

    And Trump really is a knob. Clinton is not good enough, but she really can't lose. Unless, the Americans are really dim...

    oh I don't disagree the is a knob. Alas the choice is a knob or a gramascian cultural marxoid.

    If he wasnt a knob he would be heading for a landslide not giving the dreaded Clinton woman a good chance of the prize.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

    French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    And Trump really is a knob. Clinton is not good enough, but she really can't lose. Unless, the Americans are really dim...

    oh I don't disagree the is a knob. Alas the choice is a knob or a gramascian cultural marxoid.
    I agree. But he is so off the scale. What he said about the hurricane was crass. And that was the tip of the iceberg.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Dixie said:

    Last night's by-elections essentially a tale of 2 Labours. In strong areas, they did really well. In weak areas, they did really badly. But the key seats will be the marginals, and they will fight hard. Corbyn can't win, but Labour won't die.

    Well quite. Even if Corbyn tests the floor of his party's support as John Major did in 1997, they'll still be the second party in Parliament by a very wide margin. If Labour is ever to be marginalised then this is only likely to happen through sustained decline over several electoral cycles.

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    There are some decent areas for Labour in Witney, I'd expect them to get a solid enough share, similar to 2015 unless the Lib Dem campaign really takes off.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    chestnut said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

    French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.

    'Despite Brexit'
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/784449247630458881

    Potentially very big news if correct. Presumably grants the pro-Corbyn faction the power to amend the leadership election rules. Far Left would then be firmly in command even if Corbyn left office e.g. due to ill health. Last barrier to the complete takeover of the party removed?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    FPT:"I was visiting my family back in New York this week. I saw two PAC-sponsored ads on TV urging me to vote for "Republican candidates on your ballot." No mention of Trump's name at all. "

    Possibly because New York isn't a swing state? But there are many Trump supporters saying the RNC is not GOTVing for Trump.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Any idea when Corbyn might bother to finish his reshuffle?

    or even his réchauffé?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dixie said:

    Last night's by-elections essentially a tale of 2 Labours. In strong areas, they did really well. In weak areas. But the key seats will be the marginals, and they will fight hard. Corbyn can't win, but Labour won't die.

    Good results in Rumworth in Bolton which is 70% BAME and in Haringey in North London.

    Bad results or hits taken against the whole range of nationalists in Caerphilly, Hartlepool and Glasgow.

    Added to that, they just don't exist in places like Devon and Basingstoke.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/784449247630458881

    Potentially very big news if correct. Presumably grants the pro-Corbyn faction the power to amend the leadership election rules. Far Left would then be firmly in command even if Corbyn left office e.g. due to ill health. Last barrier to the complete takeover of the party removed?

    So a relative unknown has taken a Shadow Cabinet job that's highly unlikely to turn into a real Cabinet job, and in so doing may have opened the door to a bunch of maniacs making his party permanently unelectable? LOL.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    edited October 2016
    The word in Westminster is that Ashworth was told he could take shadow Health and lose his seat on the NEC, or reject it and lose it anyway. Ashworth made the deal.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/corby-tightens-grip/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Trump's "what have you got to lose / what have Clinton's ever done for you / I have created loads of jobs for non-whites" could have won him quite a bit of support among African American's if he didn't have this "minor" issue with saying racist stuff on a daily basis....

    If fact if he had just nicked some of Bernie's sthick, shut up about building a wall and occasionally said hey I said things in the past i regret but I haven't called millions of people deplorable basement dwellers...against the Clinton-Bot-2000 he might have even won.

    Can someone provide any quotes and sources for this apparent anti black racist hate talk he is alleged to be indulging in every day?
    Just yesterday he defended his behaviour over the central park 5.
    I gather he said he thought some black people convicted of a serious crime which was then thrown out were after all guity. Did he call them n*****s, C***s or similar racist language, no.

    Sorry whether he is right or wrong, commenting on a notorious criminal case is not racist unless you use racist language or derogatory racial comments eg implying that such behaviour is only to be expected from [insert race]

    If you want a bogeyword to have shock value dont dilute it to the extent a homeopathic practicioner dilutes a substance in water before administering it.
    Like when he took out anonymous ads agaisnt a competing casino development that was giing to be built by native Americans saying that Native American criminality was well know?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

    Far from it she has a big poll lead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/784449247630458881

    Potentially very big news if correct. Presumably grants the pro-Corbyn faction the power to amend the leadership election rules. Far Left would then be firmly in command even if Corbyn left office e.g. due to ill health. Last barrier to the complete takeover of the party removed?

    Theresa May PM for life!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.
  • FPT
    JonathanD said:

    felix said:

    Apologies - I was following SeanT's comment which referred to that figure. A 14% fall is still not just a currency fluctuation.

    If we weren't being hypersensitive about politics 14% fluctuations happen very regularly without much doom or gloom being written. The truth is every tea leaf if getting over analysed at the moment to confirm pre existing prejudices.
    14% fluctuations do not happen all the time. A 15% fall is defined as a currency crash and we are now at a greater drop than happened when we left the ERM. 1981 is the most recent comparision
    A 14% fall in 4 months is the greatest drop since 1981 is it?

    Except that sterling fell from $1.86 in September 08 (having been over $2 earlier that year) to $1.36 in January 2009. That's a four month 50 cent fall (70 cents if you look over a longer time period) which was a 27% fall (35% fall over a slightly longer period).

    Our slight drop post-Brexit is nothing compared to what happened in 2008.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    I could imagine her in a summit meeting. "Is this some kind of pub quiz? Where's my glass of wine?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Artist said:

    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

    Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    geoffw said:

    The word in Westminster is that Ashworth was told he could take shadow Health and lose his seat on the NEC, or reject it and lose it anyway. Ashworth made the deal.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/corby-tightens-grip/

    Surely Jezza can't just remove people from the NEC though?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited October 2016

    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

    Very disappointing that Paul Flynn has been dropped from each of his three roles and sent to the back benches. Discrimination against octogenarians!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191
    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

    Very disappointing that Paul Flynn has been dropped from each of his three roles and sent to the back benches. Discrimination against octogenarians!
    At least no one at the next election, on the door step, can moan 'you are all the same'!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    I could imagine her in a summit meeting. "Is this some kind of pub quiz? Where's my glass of wine?"
    You have to be in Government to go to summit meetings, so she will not need to worry.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191

    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

    Terrible. Almost as bad as someone who has previously been exposed for his poor judgement being put in charge of Brexit negotiations.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Artist said:

    There are some decent areas for Labour in Witney, I'd expect them to get a solid enough share, similar to 2015 unless the Lib Dem campaign really takes off.

    I think so too. Some of the strongest Constituency Party support for Corbyn was in the shires.

    The 15% band looks value to me.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

    Terrible. Almost as bad as someone who has previously been exposed for his poor judgement being put in charge of Brexit negotiations.
    ooh, irony.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

    Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

    Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

    Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

    Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


    Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

    Terrible. Almost as bad as someone who has previously been exposed for his poor judgement being put in charge of Brexit negotiations.
    I'm not sure we know who is actually in charge of Brexit negotiations. Indeed, I think May has deliberately engineered such a situation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Tom Watson, shadow Culture Sec. He does realise this involves more than going to Glastonbury every year, doesn't he?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    nunu said:

    FPT:"I was visiting my family back in New York this week. I saw two PAC-sponsored ads on TV urging me to vote for "Republican candidates on your ballot." No mention of Trump's name at all. "

    Possibly because New York isn't a swing state? But there are many Trump supporters saying the RNC is not GOTVing for Trump.

    We have seen a couple of Trump ads on the CBS breakfast news here in the NYC media market recently. My understanding is such ads are a local buy, but perhaps I am wrong and they were part of a national buy. If they are local, it seems a perverse waste of money.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Essexit said:

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/784449247630458881

    Potentially very big news if correct. Presumably grants the pro-Corbyn faction the power to amend the leadership election rules. Far Left would then be firmly in command even if Corbyn left office e.g. due to ill health. Last barrier to the complete takeover of the party removed?

    So a relative unknown has taken a Shadow Cabinet job that's highly unlikely to turn into a real Cabinet job, and in so doing may have opened the door to a bunch of maniacs making his party permanently unelectable? LOL.
    and more to the point which he could be sacked from next week with no comeback.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2016
    Was Jezza a cabbie in a former life?

    He's Islington, Thornberry's Islington, Starmer is Kings Cross, Abbott is Hackney, McIRA is Hayes..............he won't go south of the river will he, with his new GLC?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Tom Watson, shadow Culture Sec. He does realise this involves more than going to Glastonbury every year, doesn't he?

    The Gramscian cultural hegemony!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Artist said:

    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

    Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/784449085826891776

    Corbyn taking a firm grip on the party, it would seem. We are back to the situation before the coup attempt: do Labour MPs concentrate on trying to fend off deselection (and those in marginals pray that they survive the next election.) Or have they any new ideas - or any fight - left in them?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    FPT

    JonathanD said:

    felix said:

    Apologies - I was following SeanT's comment which referred to that figure. A 14% fall is still not just a currency fluctuation.

    If we weren't being hypersensitive about politics 14% fluctuations happen very regularly without much doom or gloom being written. The truth is every tea leaf if getting over analysed at the moment to confirm pre existing prejudices.
    14% fluctuations do not happen all the time. A 15% fall is defined as a currency crash and we are now at a greater drop than happened when we left the ERM. 1981 is the most recent comparision
    A 14% fall in 4 months is the greatest drop since 1981 is it?

    Except that sterling fell from $1.86 in September 08 (having been over $2 earlier that year) to $1.36 in January 2009. That's a four month 50 cent fall (70 cents if you look over a longer time period) which was a 27% fall (35% fall over a slightly longer period).

    Our slight drop post-Brexit is nothing compared to what happened in 2008.
    That was a global crisis that was nothing to do with Gordon Brown, right?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Artist said:

    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

    Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/784449085826891776

    Corbyn taking a firm grip on the party, it would seem. We are back to the situation before the coup attempt: do Labour MPs concentrate on trying to fend off deselection (and those in marginals pray that they survive the next election.) Or have they any new ideas - or any fight - left in them?
    I wonder when the first defection will come?

    It must be obvious to these MPs that there is no shifting Corbyn until after 2020.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited October 2016
    chestnut said:

    Artist said:

    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

    Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/784449085826891776

    Corbyn taking a firm grip on the party, it would seem. We are back to the situation before the coup attempt: do Labour MPs concentrate on trying to fend off deselection (and those in marginals pray that they survive the next election.) Or have they any new ideas - or any fight - left in them?
    I wonder when the first defection will come?

    It must be obvious to these MPs that there is no shifting Corbyn until after 2020.
    If they are lucky. Corbynista will blame the media for losing the first time he is tested.

    Or, possibly, the men in grey boiler suits will arrive in the nick of time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    Jon has been dooing a lot of the daily press work attacking the Tories over policy announcements at their confernece and previously. He supported Cooper in the leadership election last year (and Watson) and I think Smith this year, but he's seen as a safe pair of hands whom nobody dislikes. He's married to another leading Midlands Labour activist, Emilie Oldknow, who used to run the regional office.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263



    At least no one at the next election, on the door step, can moan 'you are all the same'!

    Not at all - I was told quite recently by a voter that he thought "May and Corbyn and the rest of them are all the same". I asked him whether he really couldn't see any policy differences between May and Corbyn. He looked baffled and said "Nah."

    Not, however, a frequent voter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    HYUFD said:

    Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

    Far from it she has a big poll lead
    Oh, I'm sure it will slump after the Tories disastrous conference.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038



    At least no one at the next election, on the door step, can moan 'you are all the same'!

    Not at all - I was told quite recently by a voter that he thought "May and Corbyn and the rest of them are all the same". I asked him whether he really couldn't see any policy differences between May and Corbyn. He looked baffled and said "Nah."

    Not, however, a frequent voter.
    Blimey.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?
    I think he has to be replaced, but I think the differences between the factions can be exagerated. There are substantial grey areas in the middle.

    Ashworth did back Smith, but is willing to serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet, in what is (to Labour) a critical role. I think that puts him between or perhaps independent of factions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Clinton back above 80% on 538 prediction.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    Jon has been dooing a lot of the daily press work attacking the Tories over policy announcements at their confernece and previously. He supported Cooper in the leadership election last year (and Watson) and I think Smith this year, but he's seen as a safe pair of hands whom nobody dislikes. He's married to another leading Midlands Labour activist, Emilie Oldknow, who used to run the regional office.
    I truly don't mean offence by this Nick - but the current Labour response team are slow and seem to be still fighting the 2015 election. Response to May's speech took an hour IIRC.

    It could of course be because the entire Labour Party are ignoring Brexit, or it could simply be a lack of leadership drive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    chestnut said:

    Was Jezza a cabbie in a former life?

    He's Islington, Thornberry's Islington, Starmer is Kings Cross, Abbott is Hackney, McIRA is Hayes..............he won't go south of the river will he, with his new GLC?

    They've got the knowledge.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

    I think the Lib Dems could run fairly close.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921



    At least no one at the next election, on the door step, can moan 'you are all the same'!

    Not at all - I was told quite recently by a voter that he thought "May and Corbyn and the rest of them are all the same". I asked him whether he really couldn't see any policy differences between May and Corbyn. He looked baffled and said "Nah."

    Not, however, a frequent voter.
    My best canvassing experience was an older chap who answered the door in his y-fronts. I asked if we could count on his vote. He said we couldn't, but to rest assured that he wouldn't be voting for any of our opponents either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?
    I think he has to be replaced, but I think the differences between the factions can be exagerated. There are substantial grey areas in the middle.

    Ashworth did back Smith, but is willing to serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet, in what is (to Labour) a critical role. I think that puts him between or perhaps independent of factions.
    I guess NHS is a pretty decent role to have, in sense that you are unlikely to be arguing with Corbyn as long as you feel it should be 100% public service etc etc.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    chestnut said:

    Artist said:

    Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

    The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

    Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/784449085826891776

    Corbyn taking a firm grip on the party, it would seem. We are back to the situation before the coup attempt: do Labour MPs concentrate on trying to fend off deselection (and those in marginals pray that they survive the next election.) Or have they any new ideas - or any fight - left in them?
    I wonder when the first defection will come?

    It must be obvious to these MPs that there is no shifting Corbyn until after 2020.
    Defections to whom? How many Labour MPs are there left who are in Con/Lab marginals AND would be prepared to defect to the Tories?

    None of the other parties, apart from the SNP which isn't an option for obvious reasons, is strong, credible and therefore appealing as an alternative home for despairing Labour MPs. They are of niche interest and of strictly limited appeal to voters. I stand to be corrected by some sudden and dramatic defection to the Liberal Democrats, but really the most likely circumstances for Labour MPs resigning the whip seem to be deselection, and/or being both disillusioned with the leadership and contemplating retirement - i.e. those with nothing left to lose. And they'd be most likely simply to sit out their remaining time in Parliament as independents. For various reasons, there seems little prospect at present of an outright split in the party.

    The rebels may simply be planning to sit tight and see what happens after the next election, but that may not work out very well for them. In the event of the expected drubbing, what do we think the bulk of the party membership will blame: the failings of the leader, or the troublemaking of the "Blairite" scourge?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited October 2016

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?

    It's on a knife-edge. As I understand it, it is 18-17 to the non-Corbyns, but others are saying he has it by one. We'll find out soon enough. If Corbyn does get control of the NEC it's game over until Labour is wiped out at the GE. Corbyn has now made it clear to one and all he has no interest in unity.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Speedy said:

    So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

    I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    And UKIP are imploding right now. The Tories have no excuse for a poor performance ;)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    I wouldn't put it past Labour to hold on to 2nd place.
  • How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

    I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.
    Are you offering bets on who gets the most votes out of LDs and UKIP? (I think LDs will).
  • How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

    He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    My best guess would a Conservative hold by about 4,000 over the Lib Dems.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?

    It's on a knife-edge. As I understand it, it is 18-17 to the non-Corbyns, but others are saying he has it by one. We'll find out soon enough. If Corbyn does get control of the NEC it's game over until Labour is wiped out at the GE. Corbyn has now made it clear to one and all he has no interest in unity.
    I have been wondering for a while whether a heavy election defeat would make any difference. Labour is not going to get wiped out in one election - if it does as poorly as expected then it would still be as strong in the aftermath as the Tories were post-1997. Surely it's just as likely that the majority of the membership will blame PLP disunity rather than the leader, and appeal for him to stay on (or vote in a successor with similar views if he quits?)

    If the election takes place on schedule then this will also give plenty of time for mass reselection based on the new boundaries, shifting the centre of gravity of the prospective parliamentary candidates decisively to the Left.
  • How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

    He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

    Thanks a lot for the reply. Doesn't this mean that Corbyn has always had de facto control of the NEC as, even when he was outnumbered a few weeks ago, he could just make the necessary adjustments to the shadow cabinet and gain control??
  • I imagine the bloke in Yfronts who couldn't be bothered to vote wont be spending his Friday night in front of his laptop worrying about the political and economic state of the nation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    chestnut said:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

    French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.

    In 2015, the amount of Gross Capital Formation (i.e. investment) in the UK economy was $493bn. This is an announcement of... £20m...

    Every day in the UK, between companies and the government, $1.2bn is spent in capital expenditure. This is 2% of one day's spending.

    Now, it may very well be that investment is completely unaffected by Brexit, and that is what I hope.

    Unfortunately, the people I talk to (and in my job as a fund manager, I meet the managements of major companies every day) are delaying decisions about the UK. Not because they think the UK has no future, and they're certainly not cancelling things or pulling out, but because they have no idea what Britain's relationship with the world will be three years from now.

    Companies use models to make investment decisions, and right now their spreadsheets have lots of cells they can't fill in, because there are so many unknowns. I was asked by the CFO of a Taiwanese company what tariffs the UK would have with Taiwan post Brexit. I said I honestly had no idea. We need to make these things clear as soon as possible, because my Taiwanese friend might wait six months or even a year, but he won't wait forever.

    There is a huge amount of work needed to make Brexit work well, and if we do a poor job in the next two years it could have serious implications for the next two decades.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    You have been warned:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-prepares-for-debate-rebound-but-refuses-to-be-controlled/2016/10/07/ed5a4bb8-8c8f-11e6-bf8a-3d26847eeed4_story.html

    " Trump resisted suggestions from his advisers to practice exhaustively for the second debate, a town-hall-style forum that will be held Sunday night in St. Louis. He flat-out refused to participate in mock sessions, saying such playacting was annoying.

    “He doesn’t like rehearsing and rehearsing,” said former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has been among those coaching Trump on the debates. “The way he wants to do a test run is by doing a real test run.” "

    Hillary should be 1.01 on Monday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

    I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.
    Are you offering bets on who gets the most votes out of LDs and UKIP? (I think LDs will).
    I think the LDs will get around twice the UKIP share (my guess would be 21% vs about 9%).

    If anyone wants to bet on UKIP beating the LibDems, I'll offer 5-2.
  • Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

    Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

    I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.
    So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?

    It's on a knife-edge. As I understand it, it is 18-17 to the non-Corbyns, but others are saying he has it by one. We'll find out soon enough. If Corbyn does get control of the NEC it's game over until Labour is wiped out at the GE. Corbyn has now made it clear to one and all he has no interest in unity.
    I have been wondering for a while whether a heavy election defeat would make any difference. Labour is not going to get wiped out in one election - if it does as poorly as expected then it would still be as strong in the aftermath as the Tories were post-1997. Surely it's just as likely that the majority of the membership will blame PLP disunity rather than the leader, and appeal for him to stay on (or vote in a successor with similar views if he quits?)

    If the election takes place on schedule then this will also give plenty of time for mass reselection based on the new boundaries, shifting the centre of gravity of the prospective parliamentary candidates decisively to the Left.

    Mass reselection is tricky, though. If that happens it de facto creates a new party as the deselected MPs keep their seats until the next GE.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
  • How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

    He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

    Thanks a lot for the reply. Doesn't this mean that Corbyn has always had de facto control of the NEC as, even when he was outnumbered a few weeks ago, he could just make the necessary adjustments to the shadow cabinet and gain control??

    If he does have control, yes. But he may still be one short thanks to the new Scottish and Welsh seats.

  • How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

    He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

    Thanks a lot for the reply. Doesn't this mean that Corbyn has always had de facto control of the NEC as, even when he was outnumbered a few weeks ago, he could just make the necessary adjustments to the shadow cabinet and gain control??

    If he does have control, yes. But he may still be one short thanks to the new Scottish and Welsh seats.

    Thanks again, very illuminating.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

    I hope so - they deserve to be after the mess they have put us in...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    Sounds about right to me. I think the LDs in Second placein the 20+% bracket would be considered reasonable progress.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @chestnut

    'blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

    French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.'


    That will upset some headbangers,new investment was not going to happen.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Jeremy Corbyn has completed a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet, giving deputy Tom Watson the culture brief and bringing back several MPs who quit in protest at his leadership this summer.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37584531
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

    Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Adam Knight Independent candidate in Witney and former MD of Goldman Sachs is now advising his supporters to vote Lib Dem .
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

    Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?
    The assumption is that LD activists care more about the by-election than the activists of other parties. This is probably true.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

    Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?
    I think the Lib Dems could benefit from the area having voted Remain.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    Guys...what do you think is worse for the UK?
    Theresa May's intervention at the Tory party conference causing a run on sterling, or Jezza picking Abbott as Shadow Home Secretary?

    A clue to the answer... one is meaningless nonsense, and one is destructive...and pushes the UK into the hinterland.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

    Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?
    I think the Lib Dems could benefit from the area having voted Remain.
    Do the Tories have a candidate yet? Are they a Brexiteer and if so a hard one or a soft one?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Adam Knight Independent candidate in Witney and former MD of Goldman Sachs is now advising his supporters to vote Lib Dem .

    Previously Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse no less.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

    I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.
    At least.

    This is a solid blue seat.

    I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.
    I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

    Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?
    I'm offering 10-1 on the LibDems to lose their deposit and 5-2 on Ukip to beat the LibDems of you want to put your money where your mouth is.
This discussion has been closed.