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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new gerontocracy

So much for reconciliation and unity. So much for Shadow Cabinet elections. In an act that was at once decisive and divisive, Jeremy Corbyn’s reshuffle this week has made absolutely clear that there is no new start. As he said at the time of his re-election, “sadly for everyone I’ll be the same Jeremy Corbyn.”

Read the full story here

RobD

First, glorious first!

RobD

An interesting thread, hadn't appreciated just how old the two US presidential candidates were.

williamglenn

So will Trump's hostage apology video be more of a Gordon Brown or a Nick Clegg? There will probably be a musical version in record time either way.

Dromedary

It's a very good question. The gulf between older people and the young is so wide nowadays that maybe older people are more reluctant than they used to be to vote for someone who's younger than themselves, feeling that they're probably an airhead, full of it, or both.

IanB2

Fifth like UKIP

CarlottaVance

Revenge of the Baby Boomers? We ate all the pies - and we're not going to let the young get even - because we go out and vote.

More seriously, those of us fortunate to be born in the decade or so after WWII have been enormously fortunate - free University education, before the market was flooded with graduates, devaluing the whole notion of a 'graduate premium' - I have a nephew considering not going to Uni because there are so many graduates in jobs they could have got immediately after leaving school - and without the debt. Before I'd have been all for him going - I was the first person in my family to get to University his father the second - now I'm neutral and just counsel him to think carefully about it...

So yes, the oldies who blocked SindyRef and voted BREXIT look determined to carry on spoiling the party.....(or bringing a welcome degree of common sense, depending on your perspective....)

IanB2

Except that analysing the age of politicians in the context of the demographics struggles as a hypothesis - both because other countries with demographic profiles similar to ours have had a tolerance/preference for older leaders when Britain seemed peculiarly enamoured with leaders in their 40s - and because that era is so very recent and our pattern of population hasn't really shifted that much over recent years, particularly given the influx of new mostly younger migrants.

619

so trumps apology video wont work. He attacks bill clintom during it!

doesnt he understand from 8 years ago that attacking hillary for what her husband did makes her lool symptathetic???

619

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/784608719908798464

trumps going full bill clintom scandals. Going negative im a town hall setting. Great one Trump!

619

"King David had five hundred concubines for crying out loud." Sean Hannity

619

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784609194234306560

Kevin_McCandless

619 said:

"King David had five hundred concubines for crying out loud." Sean Hannity

"Uriah the Hittite was actually a dedicated patriot who volunteered to go fight on the front lines. My friendship with Bathsheba is simply that and based nothing more than on our shared love of our country."

Indigo

IanB2 said:

Except that analysing the age of politicians in the context of the demographics struggles as a hypothesis - both because other countries with demographic profiles similar to ours have had a tolerance/preference for older leaders when Britain seemed peculiarly enamoured with leaders in their 40s - and because that era is so very recent and our pattern of population hasn't really shifted that much over recent years, particularly given the influx of new mostly younger migrants.

new mostly younger migrants don't get a vote.

david_herdson

IanB2 said:

Except that analysing the age of politicians in the context of the demographics struggles as a hypothesis - both because other countries with demographic profiles similar to ours have had a tolerance/preference for older leaders when Britain seemed peculiarly enamoured with leaders in their 40s - and because that era is so very recent and our pattern of population hasn't really shifted that much over recent years, particularly given the influx of new mostly younger migrants.

It's not that recent an era; it arguably goes back to Wilson in 1964 and certainly to Major in 1992.

619

Trump says this tape is a distraction but the Clinton's sexual history is the real story we need to hear more about.

NickPalmer

To some extent this just reflects average health. I'm 66 and arguably busier than I've ever been, juggling multiple jobs, returning to political activity and various private things - went to bed at midnight finishing a contract and got up at 5 this morning to catch a train for a meeting. Nothing special in that, but it also reflects voters, who see busy sexagenarians around them and don't think of them as especially decrepit.

surbiton

619 said:

Trump says this tape is a distraction but the Clinton's sexual history is the real story we need to hear more about.

Bill or Hillary ? Bill is not running for President.

Moses_

BBC breaking.... Ankara Turkey

Two suicide bombers blow themselves up after being stopped by police.

Toms

David, we already knew you don't like Hillary. She'd make a very awkward Tory for sure.
Next.

dugarbandier

NickPalmer said:

To some extent this just reflects average health. I'm 66 and arguably busier than I've ever been, juggling multiple jobs, returning to political activity and various private things - went to bed at midnight finishing a contract and got up at 5 this morning to catch a train for a meeting. Nothing special in that, but it also reflects voters, who see busy sexagenarians around them and don't think of them as especially decrepit.

I'm 45 and I'm knackered!

Moses_

Sky news

Around 100 current and former BBC presenters are being investigated over claims they have not paid enough income tax and National Insurance contributions, HMRC has revealed. HMRC is examining the records of freelance staff at the corporation who used controversial personal service companies to reduce bills. Staff may face backdated tax bills if they are found to have incorrectly declared themselves as self-employed, rather than as employees.

The inquiries were revealed in a tax tribunal judgment involving newsreaders Tim Willcox and Joanna Gosling, who have appealed against a ruling by HMRC to pay extra tax and National Insurance contributions

http://news.sky.com/story/around-100-bbc-stars-facing-tax-avoidance-probes-10609318

YellowSubmarine

WikiLeaks releases what appear to be Clinton's paid Wall Street speeches

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/07/wikileaks-hillary-clinton-paid-wall-street-speeches?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

619

https://twitter.com/lindsaygoldwert/status/784624336506347520

619

https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/784587357257396224

JackW

"Gerontocracy" my ARSE .... Trump - 70 .. Clinton - 68 .. Corbyn - 67

Mere striplings compared to some

JackW is 112 and some ..

tlg86

Interesting piece as ever, David. I would suggest that May and Hammond partly reflect the fact that the Tories skipped a generation when they chose Cameron over Davis. The skipped generation didn't just go away.

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

To some extent this just reflects average health. I'm 66 and arguably busier than I've ever been, juggling multiple jobs, returning to political activity and various private things - went to bed at midnight finishing a contract and got up at 5 this morning to catch a train for a meeting. Nothing special in that, but it also reflects voters, who see busy sexagenarians around them and don't think of them as especially decrepit.

Indeed. As societies age careers will extend. I have several colleagues in my dept in their late sixties, and am planning to work to at least seventy myself, albeit probably part time and in a portfolio career.

Ishmael_X

To some extent this is just a statistical thing - the more 60+s among candidates the more likely a 60+ is to win. Here you see mps dying like flies and causing by-elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(1979–2010)

Then it tapers off
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

as we all drink and smoke less and the doctors start to get to grips with some forms of cancer.

edit: sorry can't make those links work and have to be off out. Ingenuity will get you to the right place.

matt

tlg86 said:

Interesting piece as ever, David. I would suggest that May and Hammond partly reflect the fact that the Tories skipped a generation when they chose Cameron over Davis. The skipped generation didn't just go away.

Nope, they hung around behaving in the entitled way that one has come to expect from that generation.

foxinsoxuk

I see the Clinton 538 snake has now reached Iowa. Arizona and Georgia next.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-election

Still some value in the state betting for a Clinton lanslide.

foxinsoxuk

Ishmael_X said:

To some extent this is just a statistical thing - the more 60+s among candidates the more likely a 60+ is to win. Here you see mps dying like flies and causing by-elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(1979–2010)

Then it tapers off
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

as we all drink and smoke less and the doctors start to get to grips with some forms of cancer.

edit: sorry can't make those links work and have to be off out. Ingenuity will get you to the right place.

Being healthy in your sixties and into your seventies is a class correlated phenomenon. The Gerontocracy is part of the metropolitan elite.

JackW

Overnight polling :

National Tracker - Lucid/Picayune - Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

National - Fox News - Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-results-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead/

National Tracker - LA Times - Clinton 43.6 .. Trump 46.2
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Virginia - Hampton University - Clinton 46 .. Trump 34
http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/HU-Poll:-Post--Debate-Surge-Gives-Democrats-Double--Digit-Surge-among-Virginians

Alaska - Moore Information - Clinton 34 .. Trump 37
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161007_AK_1.pdf

logical_song

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

MarqueeMark

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

Indigo

matt said:

tlg86 said:

Interesting piece as ever, David. I would suggest that May and Hammond partly reflect the fact that the Tories skipped a generation when they chose Cameron over Davis. The skipped generation didn't just go away.

Nope, they hung around behaving in the entitled way that one has come to expect from that generation.

On the contrary, falling out of college doing a couple of years in public relations, carrying another politicians bag for a few year and thinking not only that you are experienced enough to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but "actually would be rather good at it" is the very definition of entitlement.

Toms

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

When, hopefully, Trump is given his marching orders with luck he'll take some of the Congressional tea-party Republicans with him.

AlastairMeeks

Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.

Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.

In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.

Alistair

surbiton said:

619 said:

Trump says this tape is a distraction but the Clinton's sexual history is the real story we need to hear more about.

Bill or Hillary ? Bill is not running for President.

Bill. It's almost like Trump thinks women aren't real people who should be considered important.

ThomasNashe

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

After the vote, the GOP is going to have one hell of an inquest into how he got the candidacy.

MarqueeMark

On topic, I think the age thing in the US and the UK is something of a coincidence. Corbyn is in place because he is pretty much Last Man Standing for a strand of political philosophy that all but died out during the Blairite years. The Firebrand Trot was relegated to "aw, bless...." status in the Labour Party. Which is why Ma Beckett could indulge the Far Left by proposing Corbyn to get him on the ballot.

Those who Corbyn went on to beat were all significantly younger than he. It's possible that the Labour Party will have a collective fit of madness and nominate a tranche of 500+ very young Momentum members to stand in 2020 - but I doubt it. Corbyn will more likely prove to be the death rattle of the Far Left. (Although he may kill Labour in the process.)

That the US candidates tend to be older is a function of nepotism - their spouse having been President for 8 years some 16 years ago, for example. Or else they have built up such tax-free wealth that they really don't know what else to do with it, beyond fund a run for the top job. But perhaps even they are to be prefered to a young shiny suit with a charming smile and no discernible personal philosophy, other than that which their shadowy wealthy sponsors want to hear.

logical_song

Toms said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

When, hopefully, Trump is given his marching orders with luck he'll take some of the Congressional tea-party Republicans with him.

Yes, Democrats will hopefully have a friendlier Congress. Also they'll be able to get their nominee on the Supreme Court.

dugarbandier

Deleted. couldn't be arsed

too old.

MarqueeMark

AlastairMeeks said:

Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.

Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.

In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.

A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?

619

logical_song said:

Toms said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

When, hopefully, Trump is given his marching orders with luck he'll take some of the Congressional tea-party Republicans with him.

Yes, Democrats will hopefully have a friendlier Congress. Also they'll be able to get their nominee on the Supreme Court.

theyll be a few trump rampers talking about rassumen, la times and 'silent wwc majority' soon

619

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

its 1. what could be 2?

foxinsoxuk

ThomasNashe said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

After the vote, the GOP is going to have one hell of an inquest into how he got the candidacy.

A fairly short inquest.

The registered Republican voters in Primaries chose him knowing his flaws, indeed relishing them.

logical_song

619 said:

logical_song said:

Toms said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

When, hopefully, Trump is given his marching orders with luck he'll take some of the Congressional tea-party Republicans with him.

Yes, Democrats will hopefully have a friendlier Congress. Also they'll be able to get their nominee on the Supreme Court.

theyll be a few trump rampers talking about rassumen, la times and 'silent wwc majority' soon

I think they may be 'considering their position'.

DecrepitJohnL

Toms said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

When, hopefully, Trump is given his marching orders with luck he'll take some of the Congressional tea-party Republicans with him.

That's the irony. What Trump has shown is that a lot of the Tea Party vote was really NOTA and unrelated to policy -- since Trump is no tea partier.

The GOP establishment will be concerned with the down-ticket races. Paradoxically it is better from that point of view if Republicans repelled by Trump vote for Hillary than if they stay at home -- as it will be Hillary for president but Republican through the rest of the card.

Ryan was quick off the mark. Maybe reporters got lucky and maybe Ryan is planning his own White House bid for 2020.

PlatoSaid

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

619

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/784623506050969601

MarqueeMark

619 said:

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

its 1. what could be 2?

Some spotty rednecked teenager in the Boonies - a home-grown hacker, not a KBG Bear, for maximum awkwardness - has passed Trump a CD of the complete Hillary e-mail traffic from her private server. For instance.

agingjb

Al Gore, from the distant past, is younger than either Presidential candidate.

foxinsoxuk

Indigo said:

matt said:

tlg86 said:

Interesting piece as ever, David. I would suggest that May and Hammond partly reflect the fact that the Tories skipped a generation when they chose Cameron over Davis. The skipped generation didn't just go away.

Nope, they hung around behaving in the entitled way that one has come to expect from that generation.

On the contrary, falling out of college doing a couple of years in public relations, carrying another politicians bag for a few year and thinking not only that you are experienced enough to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but "actually would be rather good at it" is the very definition of entitlement.

Indeed the post coalition government does show the Coalition in good light in terms of competence.

edmundintokyo

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

If you really think that's going to happen you should probably bet on it ahead of time. The value will have gone once the unspecified thing that's going to destroy Hillary is public.

nunu

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Around 100 current and former BBC presenters are being investigated over claims they have not paid enough income tax and National Insurance contributions, HMRC has revealed. HMRC is examining the records of freelance staff at the corporation who used controversial personal service companies to reduce bills. Staff may face backdated tax bills if they are found to have incorrectly declared themselves as self-employed, rather than as employees.

The inquiries were revealed in a tax tribunal judgment involving newsreaders Tim Willcox and Joanna Gosling, who have appealed against a ruling by HMRC to pay extra tax and National Insurance contributions

http://news.sky.com/story/around-100-bbc-stars-facing-tax-avoidance-probes-10609318

Will they be defended as geniuses as the Trump rampers on here should if being fair?

JackW

A few thoughts on pussygate ... Sorry @plato ....

1. Debate 2 television audience on Sunday might be ever so slightly "bigly".
2. How nuclear will Donald go in Deabte 2 ?
3. Slight Pence debate momentum now stone dead.
4. How many down ballot GOP candidates will throw Trump overboard. And related :
5. From now to election day GOP candidates will hounded because of their Trump endorsements
6. How many more CBS tapes and others are there to come ?
7. Clinton is 45th POTUS but by what margin and what of Senate and House implications?

619

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

AlastairMeeks

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.

Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.

In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.

A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?

A sudden change. If Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May contest a 2020 election, they will have the oldest combined age of the two main party leaders at an election since Churchill and Attlee.

foxinsoxuk

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

If you really think that's going to happen you should probably bet on it ahead of time. The value will have gone once the unspecified thing that's going to destroy Hillary is public.

Yeah. The death blow to Hillary is the Trumpsters version of the AV thread - always in the future.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.

Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.

In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.

A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?

A sudden change. If Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May contest a 2020 election, they will have the oldest combined age of the two main party leaders at an election since Churchill and Attlee.

In the 1951 GE?

619

foxinsoxuk said:

ThomasNashe said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

After the vote, the GOP is going to have one hell of an inquest into how he got the candidacy.

A fairly short inquest.

The registered Republican voters in Primaries chose him knowing his flaws, indeed relishing them.

yup. RNC primary voters like racist, sexist candidates. The more racist and sexist the better@

619

Mike pence may not be a better option

https://twitter.com/Walldo/status/784514856783228928

Alistair

foxinsoxuk said:

ThomasNashe said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

GOP panics as outrage with Trump boils over

"The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night over revelations that Donald Trump once bragged in explicit terms about sexually harassing women, driving GOP leaders to denounce their nominee and even prompting calls that he leave the presidential ticket.

But while Trump and his senior aides huddled to strategize next steps, many Republicans felt paralyzed -- stuck with a candidate few ever wholeheartedly embraced with only 31 days left until Election Day.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has had a lukewarm-at-best relationship with his party’s nominee, said he was “sickened by what I heard today.” And he made it clear that Trump was no longer welcome at a political event the speaker is hosting in his Wisconsin congressional district on Saturday – which was to be the first time the two appeared side-by-side."

"Even within Trump’s own campaign, there was an overriding sense of doom. One aide expressed doubt that the GOP nominee, who has successfully weathered a number of scandals, would be able to ride the current firestorm."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-comments-women-gop-republican-reaction-229329

After the vote, the GOP is going to have one hell of an inquest into how he got the candidacy.

A fairly short inquest.

The registered Republican voters in Primaries chose him knowing his flaws, indeed relishing them.

If it had be 1 on 1 by the time the primaries started I don't know if he would have won.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: qualifying's just done so although I'll start the pre-race piece it'll probably take a few hours for the markets to awaken.

619

honest question: are Trumps tiny, tiny hands big enough to grab a pussy?

SquareRoot

nunu said:

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Around 100 current and former BBC presenters are being investigated over claims they have not paid enough income tax and National Insurance contributions, HMRC has revealed. HMRC is examining the records of freelance staff at the corporation who used controversial personal service companies to reduce bills. Staff may face backdated tax bills if they are found to have incorrectly declared themselves as self-employed, rather than as employees.

The inquiries were revealed in a tax tribunal judgment involving newsreaders Tim Willcox and Joanna Gosling, who have appealed against a ruling by HMRC to pay extra tax and National Insurance contributions

http://news.sky.com/story/around-100-bbc-stars-facing-tax-avoidance-probes-10609318

Will they be defended as geniuses as the Trump rampers on here should if being fair?

The will surely be more than 100 by the time HMRC have finished.. luvvies playing by one rule whilst the rest of us have to cough up.. this is only at the BBC..what about all the other TV companies.. how have their "stars" been arranging their affairs?

Alanbrooke

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

c - just how young and upper middle class are you ?

blokes mouthing off has been pretty standard for the last couple of millenia

619

MarqueeMark said:

619 said:

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

its 1. what could be 2?

Some spotty rednecked teenager in the Boonies - a home-grown hacker, not a KBG Bear, for maximum awkwardness - has passed Trump a CD of the complete Hillary e-mail traffic from her private server. For instance.

and whats in it?

Alistair

I think the stupidest of the Trump rampers where the ones who thought the Birtherism and whole primary performance was an act and he was smoothly going to pivot and seize the centre ground.

And kept telling us this was about to happen.

Always about to happen.

Anytime now.

Just you wait.

DecrepitJohnL

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Around 100 current and former BBC presenters are being investigated over claims they have not paid enough income tax and National Insurance contributions, HMRC has revealed. HMRC is examining the records of freelance staff at the corporation who used controversial personal service companies to reduce bills. Staff may face backdated tax bills if they are found to have incorrectly declared themselves as self-employed, rather than as employees.

The inquiries were revealed in a tax tribunal judgment involving newsreaders Tim Willcox and Joanna Gosling, who have appealed against a ruling by HMRC to pay extra tax and National Insurance contributions

http://news.sky.com/story/around-100-bbc-stars-facing-tax-avoidance-probes-10609318

Surely presenters were forced by the BBC to "become" contractors with personal service companies -- lower tax bills might have been a welcome side effect but in most cases an unintended one. At least, that is what I dimly recall from the last time this story aired, a few years back.

JackW

Dare one ask .... ?!?!

Has Donald touched up Mrs Slocombe's pussy .....

619

JackW said:

A few thoughts on pussygate ... Sorry @plato ....

1. Debate 2 television audience on Sunday might be ever so slightly "bigly".
2. How nuclear will Donald go in Deabte 2 ?
3. Slight Pence debate momentum now stone dead.
4. How many down ballot GOP candidates will throw Trump overboard. And related :
5. From now to election day GOP candidates will hounded because of their Trump endorsements
6. How many more CBS tapes and others are there to come ?
7. Clinton is 45th POTUS but by what margin and what of Senate and House implications?

2. He already said in his apology video how he will talk about bill clinton sexually assaulting women and hillary helping him.
4. Utah's have already said he should resign. if he goes through with 2, the rest of the GOP may go through on ir
6. There is definitely one where he uses a unmitigiated racial slur which will probably be released in a week or so if he somehow gets momentum back going.

619

Alistair said:

I think the stupidest of the Trump rampers where the ones who thought the Birtherism and whole primary performance was an act and he was smoothly going to pivot and seize the centre ground.

And kept telling us this was about to happen.

Always about to happen.

Anytime now.

Just you wait.

The RNC position

CarlottaVance

Indigo said:

matt said:

tlg86 said:

Interesting piece as ever, David. I would suggest that May and Hammond partly reflect the fact that the Tories skipped a generation when they chose Cameron over Davis. The skipped generation didn't just go away.

Nope, they hung around behaving in the entitled way that one has come to expect from that generation.

On the contrary, falling out of college doing a couple of years in public relations, carrying another politicians bag for a few year and thinking not only that you are experienced enough to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but "actually would be rather good at it" is the very definition of entitlement.

1977-1997 Bank of England/ACS - 20 years
1986 - 1994 Local Councillor - 8 years
GE1992 - safe Labour seat - lost
1994 - Bye-election, safe Labour seat - lost
1997 - Selected for safe Tory seat - and won
1999 - Shadow Cabinet
2002 - Chairman of Party
2004 - Shadow Cabinet
2005 - Shadow Leader of House
2010-2016 - Home Secretary

1988-1993 - Conservative Research Dept
1992 - 1994 Special Advisor CoE/Home Secretary
1994 - 2001 Carlton Communications - 7 years
1997 - Stood in 'safe' seat but didn't win (many didn't)
2001-2005 MP,
2005-2016 Leader of Conservatives
2010-2016 PM

Is it any wonder Tory activists think May is 'one of us'? (unless you're a Public Schoolboy with a mancrush on other Public Schoolboys...)

DavidL

The US election is looking disappointingly unclose this morning, indeed it has for a while. Clinton should win this very comfortably with the minimum of excitement.

I fear we will then have a Presidency plagued by investigations etc just as her husband's was but with a lot more substance. The damage done to the FBI by political interference in a criminal investigation is frankly shocking and completely the opposite of what our American Tims expected, rightly so given their history. We will no doubt hear a lot more about this.

The problem is even being a crook, corrupt, old and sick does not stop her from being in a completely different class from Trump. What on earth were the Republicans thinking?

SirBernard

Alanbrooke said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

c - just how young and upper middle class are you ?

blokes mouthing off has been pretty standard for the last couple of millenia

Men saying how certain women are hot and they'd like to sleep with them is common place. Men saying how they grab women's genitalia out of the blue, and they can get away with it because they're high status, is very much not normal.

DecrepitJohnL

SquareRoot said:

nunu said:

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Around 100 current and former BBC presenters are being investigated over claims they have not paid enough income tax and National Insurance contributions, HMRC has revealed. HMRC is examining the records of freelance staff at the corporation who used controversial personal service companies to reduce bills. Staff may face backdated tax bills if they are found to have incorrectly declared themselves as self-employed, rather than as employees.

The inquiries were revealed in a tax tribunal judgment involving newsreaders Tim Willcox and Joanna Gosling, who have appealed against a ruling by HMRC to pay extra tax and National Insurance contributions

http://news.sky.com/story/around-100-bbc-stars-facing-tax-avoidance-probes-10609318

Will they be defended as geniuses as the Trump rampers on here should if being fair?

The will surely be more than 100 by the time HMRC have finished.. luvvies playing by one rule whilst the rest of us have to cough up.. this is only at the BBC..what about all the other TV companies.. how have their "stars" been arranging their affairs?

This is, I think, the tail end of an old story. The BBC pushed presenters off the staff and off the books following the Birt reforms (if that is the right word) then five or six years ago needed to reverse it under HMRC pressure. Similarly with production companies. The idea was for the BBC to commission rather than make programmes.

YellowSubmarine

Beautifully crafted editorial in today's Daily Mail calling Remain voters " the enemy within ". Of course when you reread it in outrage it never quite says that explicitly. It's beautifully written to provide plausible deniability but the psychological effect is clear. They call remain voters " the enemy within ". Interesting Zeitgeist.

Alanbrooke

SirBernard said:

Alanbrooke said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

c - just how young and upper middle class are you ?

blokes mouthing off has been pretty standard for the last couple of millenia

Men saying how certain women are hot and they'd like to sleep with them is common place. Men saying how they grab women's genitalia out of the blue, and they can get away with it because they're high status, is very much not normal.

suggest you get out more. Blokes in groups are a wonder to behold across all ages.

PlatoSaid

For anyone who hasn't seen Trump's statement

https://t.co/iigkV0wNrt

Pretty good effort at apologies and pivots onto Bill and Hillary attacking his victims.

And we thought it couldn't get much uglier.

I see there's evidence that Potesto or Hillary colluded over PAC campaigning. I believe that is a felony.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Submarine, if accurate, that's disturbing.

Whilst I do think a small minority of Remain voters are clapping their hands with glee at any prospect of bad news, the vast majority have simply accepted the referendum result and want the best deal between the UK and EU.

However, this isn't a one way street. We've had the woeful misreporting of a murder of a Polish man attributed to the vote, a rise in reported hate crimes [stupid term] but no rise in successful prosecutions, and general doom-mongering.

There's a risk that the more zealous elements on either side proclaim Leavers to be racists and Remainers to be traitors. Again, slightly reminiscent of the intra-city conflicts between those supporting democracy and oligarchy during the Peloponnesian War.

kle4

SirBernard said:

Alanbrooke said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

c - just how young and upper middle class are you ?

blokes mouthing off has been pretty standard for the last couple of millenia

Men saying how certain women are hot and they'd like to sleep with them is common place. Men saying how they grab women's genitalia out of the blue, and they can get away with it because they're high status, is very much not normal.

Quite. Is not doing that really middle class? Reminds me of clarksons firing, and how apparently people getting punched is a perfectly regular occurrence in practically all jobs according to some, when outside of MEP meetings I think actually 'taking it outside' and not just mouthing off is uncommon.

Sean_F

Just a bit of fun, but if Labour were now led by Tony Blair, using Electoral Calculus, the Conservatives would win 404 seats, Labour 151, Lib Dems 14, UKIP 2.

Morris_Dancer

F1: Suzuka's over three and a half miles long. Difference between pole and second is the equivalent of less than three feet.

ThomasNashe

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone who hasn't seen Trump's statement

https://t.co/iigkV0wNrt

Pretty good effort at apologies and pivots onto Bill and Hillary attacking his victims.

And we thought it couldn't get much uglier.

I see there's evidence that Potesto or Hillary colluded over PAC campaigning. I believe that is a felony.

Hillary Clinton is a deeply-flawed candidate, but she'll walk it. See DavidL's post below.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Submarine, if accurate, that's disturbing.

Whilst I do think a small minority of Remain voters are clapping their hands with glee at any prospect of bad news, the vast majority have simply accepted the referendum result and want the best deal between the UK and EU.

However, this isn't a one way street. We've had the woeful misreporting of a murder of a Polish man attributed to the vote, a rise in reported hate crimes [stupid term] but no rise in successful prosecutions, and general doom-mongering.

There's a risk that the more zealous elements on either side proclaim Leavers to be racists and Remainers to be traitors. Again, slightly reminiscent of the intra-city conflicts between those supporting democracy and oligarchy during the Peloponnesian War.

As so many things are, no doubt!

619

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone who hasn't seen Trump's statement

https://t.co/iigkV0wNrt

Pretty good effort at apologies and pivots onto Bill and Hillary attacking his victims.

And we thought it couldn't get much uglier.

I see there's evidence that Potesto or Hillary colluded over PAC campaigning. I believe that is a felony.

thats a rubbish apology. He didnt say what he said was wrong and saying 'forgey what i said 11 years ago but remember what happened 20 years ago' is pathethic

I posted a link earlier, but half those emails from wikileaks are forged.

SirBernard

619 said:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784609194234306560

Him claiming it was just words rings a little hollow given these sorts of allegations already came out:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/20/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations-jill-harth-interview

Sean_F

Alanbrooke said:

SirBernard said:

Alanbrooke said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly think that those jumping up and down are almost all already Hillary voters.

I've seen so many men on Twitter asserting they've been in the forces etc and never heard such language blah blah. I heard it working in a sales offices and with blokes down the pub.

There's the whole Sex in the City culture of women too.

Lots of posturing and fauxrage. I think it may knock off a few points for a few days, but it's mostly factored in for someone like Trump.

In the meantime, this is the most creative spin of the night

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

a) he was behind anyway so this doesnt help him get back women he needs to win
b) The RNC are clearly about to abandon him and just concentrate on other races. He doesnt have his own GOTV
c) so blokes talk about how they grab women's pussy without their permission in a rapey way in your office? Wow!

c - just how young and upper middle class are you ?

blokes mouthing off has been pretty standard for the last couple of millenia

Men saying how certain women are hot and they'd like to sleep with them is common place. Men saying how they grab women's genitalia out of the blue, and they can get away with it because they're high status, is very much not normal.

suggest you get out more. Blokes in groups are a wonder to behold across all ages.

I've sometimes heard similar discussions. I find it crude and coarse, but then we know that Trump is a crude and coarse man, and so presumably, do his voters.

YellowSubmarine

I actually agree there is nothing particularly shocking about the Trump tape given what we already know about his character. And what we know about his character hasn't stopped him getting where he is. It's already in the price. The issues are #1 Narrative. It validates Clinton's 1st debates comments, kills the VP debate momentum and sets the tone/framing for the 2nd debate. #2 It undermines the general " they are both dreadful " factor. It firms up clothes peg voters for Clinton.

Trump is losing and needs to reset the campaign. Every event that prevents that happening, even if it only tells us what we already know, is a victory for the front runner not neutral.

Mortimer

NickPalmer said:

To some extent this just reflects average health. I'm 66 and arguably busier than I've ever been, juggling multiple jobs, returning to political activity and various private things - went to bed at midnight finishing a contract and got up at 5 this morning to catch a train for a meeting. Nothing special in that, but it also reflects voters, who see busy sexagenarians around them and don't think of them as especially decrepit.

I agree with this. My mother, aswell as retraining in her fifties as a nursery teacher, now works for me in a totally different role, and my father keeps putting off retirement because, in his words, is more efficient now then he used to be (well, except at setting up anything technological).

edmundintokyo

On topic, the striking thing isn't just that they're old, it's that they're all actually representing a previous era.

Clinton is representing a rerun of the Clinton years, Trump is representing a return to a time when America was great and racism and sexism were acceptable, Corbyn is running on Winter of Discontent Nostalgia, which seems to be more popular with young Labour members than you might expect. Theresa May isn't that old, but her entire pitch is basically Back To The 1950s.

Part of it feels like the inevitable consequence of the electorate getting older, but that doesn't explain Corbyn.

logical_song

619 said:

JackW said:

A few thoughts on pussygate ... Sorry @plato ....

1. Debate 2 television audience on Sunday might be ever so slightly "bigly".
2. How nuclear will Donald go in Deabte 2 ?
3. Slight Pence debate momentum now stone dead.
4. How many down ballot GOP candidates will throw Trump overboard. And related :
5. From now to election day GOP candidates will hounded because of their Trump endorsements
6. How many more CBS tapes and others are there to come ?
7. Clinton is 45th POTUS but by what margin and what of Senate and House implications?

2. He already said in his apology video how he will talk about bill clinton sexually assaulting women and hillary helping him.
4. Utah's have already said he should resign. if he goes through with 2, the rest of the GOP may go through on ir
6. There is definitely one where he uses a unmitigiated racial slur which will probably be released in a week or so if he somehow gets momentum back going.

2. If he makes allegations against Bill could the lawyers become involved?

MarqueeMark

619 said:

MarqueeMark said:

619 said:

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Does anyone here still think he will win?

It's weird. Trump seems to betray the "couldn't give a shit" attitude of someone who

1. Doesn't give a shit - or

2. Knows that something is going to come out in the final days that will destroy Hillary as a candidate.

For that reason alone, I won't be betting on this US election until the morning of the poll. At the earliest.

its 1. what could be 2?

Some spotty rednecked teenager in the Boonies - a home-grown hacker, not a KBG Bear, for maximum awkwardness - has passed Trump a CD of the complete Hillary e-mail traffic from her private server. For instance.

and whats in it?

I dunno, but clearly enough to give Trump confidence that he has the election on a plate, whatever he has said and done in the past....

rottenborough

DavidL said:

The US election is looking disappointingly unclose this morning, indeed it has for a while. Clinton should win this very comfortably with the minimum of excitement.

I fear we will then have a Presidency plagued by investigations etc just as her husband's was but with a lot more substance. The damage done to the FBI by political interference in a criminal investigation is frankly shocking and completely the opposite of what our American Tims expected, rightly so given their history. We will no doubt hear a lot more about this.

The problem is even being a crook, corrupt, old and sick does not stop her from being in a completely different class from Trump. What on earth were the Republicans thinking?

I am pretty convinced Trump has lost this already.

As to what the Republicans were thinking - depends who you mean. Clearly the upper echelons of GOP did not want Trump and at first treated him as a sideshow joke candidate. Enough ordinary, registered GOP voters though thought otherwise. The roots of this probably lie in the Tea Party.

Jonathan

Babyboomers asserting their power.

CarlottaVance

YellowSubmarine said:

Beautifully crafted editorial in today's Daily Mail calling Remain voters " the enemy within ". Of course when you reread it in outrage it never quite says that explicitly. It's beautifully written to provide plausible deniability but the psychological effect is clear. They call remain voters " the enemy within ". Interesting Zeitgeist.

embittered Tory Remainers led by ex-chancellor George Osborne are already threatening to subvert the referendum result in the Commons.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3828041/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Theresa-s-bold-vision-enemy-within.html

Remind you of anyone?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, I can heartily recommend Thucydides' history of it (and Donald Kagan's single volume modern history). There really are lots of useful comparisons for the modern world.

I mentioned it before, but the needless Athenian expedition to Sicily, when the city had its boot on Sparta's neck, was akin to the pointless Iraq invasion when we should've been focused on Afghanistan.

In both instances, hubris led to failure in two theatres of war rather than success in one.

MarqueeMark

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Confound you, David Herdson! I was putting together a piece on this very subject.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both older than their respective parties' nominees in 2000 are today. Similarly, Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are both older than their respective party leaders at the 2001 general election are today.

Meanwhile, last year only one MP elected in mainland Britain in 2015 had a party leader who was aged over 50, and even that party leader had only just passed that milestone.

In Britain at least, this is a sudden change.

A sudden change - or a reversion to the norm, after the shiny smily youngness of Blair and Cameron proved less than satisfying?

A sudden change. If Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May contest a 2020 election, they will have the oldest combined age of the two main party leaders at an election since Churchill and Attlee.

Yeah, but the population has aged a lot since Churchill and Attlee. Apples and oranges....

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Beautifully crafted editorial in today's Daily Mail calling Remain voters " the enemy within ". Of course when you reread it in outrage it never quite says that explicitly. It's beautifully written to provide plausible deniability but the psychological effect is clear. They call remain voters " the enemy within ". Interesting Zeitgeist.

embittered Tory Remainers led by ex-chancellor George Osborne are already threatening to subvert the referendum result in the Commons.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3828041/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Theresa-s-bold-vision-enemy-within.html

Remind you of anyone?

is there any other type of Remainer than "embittered"