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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would’ve produced a different result
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https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.kwcbfqslt
Barnesian said: OK. 4%+
Imports are 20%+ of our GDP. Sterling has depreciated by 20%+ since the referendum. That will put inflation up by 4%+ It will take a few weeks or months for that inflation to come through in oil prices at the pumps and food prices in the shops. But come it will.
I said:
Inflation is currently at 0.6%. So you are predicting 4.6% within 12 months? Would you like a bet on that? Let's make it a little fairer. Fancy a bet that CPI inflation will not exceed 4% in the next 12 months?
The Remain side had the full backing of the state, the government leaflet and so on and so forth and still lost. Leave didn't have a single advantage like that, they didn't even have the Murdoch media fully behind them (Times backed Remain) and yet still won.
In fact Leave's "small" victory included over 4.4 million more voters backing Leave than backed No2AV.
Well, it was fun while lasted!
Nigel is wrong and Mike is wrong - but crucially two wrongs don't make a right.
Those who say 'the people have spoken' or 'the result was clear' are just wrong.
The people muttered and the result was close.
Summary of my reply was - I'm tempted but no.
For the EU Referendum the people shouted. They had a loud shouty disagreement but they spoke loud and when the shouting stopped the outcome by 1.3 million votes was clear.
When does the Rep dumping on Trump become an avalanche?
£350m per week was true as a gross figure. £4300 per family was a total fabrication.
More over the top dog droppings
The rest can just feck off as they are to dim to know what they have done apparently.
Our inflation target is 2%. If it reaches 3.5% that at 1.5% away from target will be no worse than inflation of 0.5%. The reality is though that inflation won't get that high, but even if it did we can take it in our stride.
Even if nothing new is said and positions are so entrenched it makes The Somme looking like the wide open spaces of the Steppes.
And despite the ignorance of Remoaners afterwards the proposal was always that some (not all) of the £350m would go to the NHS.
The second major problem is that our economy is being badly distorted by absurdly low interest rates. Some inflation that drove the nominal rate to, say, 3%-4% would slash the deficits on pension schemes that are currently sucking in so much of businesses working capital and investment capability and encourage the saving rate which Robert has pointed out is at unacceptably low levels.
The third major problem is that the same distortion is at present causing significant asset inflation greatly widening the gap between the haves and the have nots making house purchase for example very difficult for the majority. Inflation could reduce these problems.
What would this lower pound and higher inflation do to GDP? Much harder to say with conflicting factors but more likely than not we would see a slow down and a modest increase in unemployment. Which would have the very considerable advantage of allowing remainers to feel good about themselves. And it would mean Mike did not have to struggle for thread headers.
Blair's policy of being "friends" with everyone in Europe just saw us give up a large chunk of rebate with nothing in return. This may be a time for brinkmanship rather than friends.
Much more important will be the messages conveyed by the FCO in the course of everyday diplomacy.
Aside from which what did the government members say that was so awful? Not that I was paying full attention, but I don't remember much. TM's speech seemed to contain items that I don't personally like, see Charles Moore in today's Telegraph, but I am struggling to remember anything of great import that was said by anyone.
Furthermore the only reason we think inflation may go up is due to changes in fx rates which are in no small part caused by a cut in interest rates. If the Bank were worried by inflation they wouldn't be cutting interest rates and causing the fx changes themselves now would they!
Obviously we know some of them get offended at the idea of betting but some of them have to have wagered some money on the sure thing Trump is definitely going to win.
https://twitter.com/wallace_anna/status/772894573693640704
The vote was won by Brexit on the rules set ahead of the vote. Whining about it after the event is silly.
Granted, it was a shock win. It went against every political party in the UK (except for UKIP and the DUP), against the main broadcaster, against the civil service, and against the entire metropolitan elite. The shock tactics of the losing side were unbelievable--fortunately they weren't believed.
Remain even had the 'good fortune' to be on the right end of the only black swan event of the campaign--the assassination of Jo Cox. (For an arithmetic assessment of the significance of the that, see Anthony Wells. He reckons the margin went from down from approx 12 to about 4%).
Without the emphatic support of the leading politian of his age, Cameron, the margin would have been enormous.
Sure, the end result was mathematically close. But to confuse that with enthusiasm for the EU being on a knife-edge in the UK is disingenuous.
But it was an oligarchy you supported.
“Somehow, a whole combination of people were in denial up until now,” said Adam S. Posen, a former member of the rate-setting committee at the Bank of England, and now president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
“There were the people who thought Brexit would be reversed,” he continued. “There were the people who delusionally thought there would be a soft Brexit, and all the northern Europeans would be nice to them. And there were people who believed that this crew in charge of the British negotiations were somehow going to strike a good deal. All of the delusions have run out of material.”
Their disappointment is verging on the destruction of democracy and of a democratic result.
Perhaps we should force all those MP's that got elected by margins of 3.7% to resign and and run again. There is no electoral law in the UK that says that one has to clear 5% as there is on the continent in many countries. Remain wants it's cake back, well they can't have it.
Since it now appears that everybody hated and despised them, and always had done, this was obviously a losing trick for the Remain campaign. It clearly trumped all the other advantages that Remain had.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth
2) Living within their means
3) Increasing their savings ratio
And if I'd put £1,000 rather than a couple of quid on my 250/1 Verstappen bet, I'd be more relaxed about my finances.
But I didn't.
2010: 1.6150
2011: 1.5610
2012: 1.5507
2013: 1.6245
2014: 1.6554
2015: 1.5571
2016: 1.4740
Yesterday: 1.2436
Sources
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
"The suspect has been named as Jaber Alkadr, 22, who was born in Syria."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37596829
right ok...but there seems to be a bit missing from their report....
"Focus cited security sources as saying the suspect he had come to Germany with Syrian refugees during the past year."
http://news.sky.com/story/german-police-hunt-suspected-bomb-plotter-after-chemnitz-raid-10609696
This is a lighthouse. Your call.
Anyone influenced by this argument wanted, at best, the softest of Brexits, not the Powellite lurch we're getting.
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
Professionally speaking, I think they're all wrong. I worked in sales offices in the late 90s where male colleagues talked like this and down the pub, and sports clubs.
It's Sex in the City for women who do the same, and pretend not to when not together and tiddled.
The whole liberal tutting puritanism isn't convincing me one iota. If people like me aren't thinking WTF HOW AWFUL - this is going to result in more shy Trumpers in the polls.
I'm not sure what the polls tell us now about Hillary anymore. The MSM war on Trump is eclipsing Brexit snobbery. And it's not landing much, as those who already think they're biased just see more evidence of it.
Vulgar folk use vulgar bragging hyperbole - shocker.
America has the habit of too many people 'remembering' voting for the winner. So the poll is down weighting Democratic voters too heavily.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/chartimage?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/quarter2aprtojune2016/5b35669a
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/784775550040702976
But you are falling into the Daniel Hannan error: the conceit that everything that goes wrong is the fault of Europe/REMAINers. That statement is no longer tenable.
Why? Because REMAIN lost: David Davis is SoSEXy[1], Liam Fox thinks he's IT, Boris is FCO. Blaming REMAIN for the increasingly obvious post-vote debacle is invidious because REMAIN have no agency nor power.
LEAVE has to come to terms with the fact that the antimigration antibusiness outcome eventuating is being driven, enabled, and put into production by LEAVErs.
[1] Apparently that's his actual abrev. Who knew?