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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

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TheScreamingEagles

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Any relation to Ruby Tuesday ?

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Ok

so where's Jezza's ?

RobD

Oh baby!

TheScreamingEagles

Sky are reporting that Wayne Rooney will be dropped for tomorrow's match.

Well done Gareth

RobD

Look at that 75+ lead.. gotta keep those old duffers alive and kicking

TGOHF

So no group over 24 shows Corbo ahead.

Bwahahahaha.

Ishmael_X

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Even Gordon Brown wasn't stupid and incompetent enough to hold, and lose, an EU referendum.

RobD

TGOHF said:

So no group over 24 shows Corbo ahead.

Bwahahahaha.

Corbynism something something nation?

Lucian_Fletcher

It's also a poll which confirms that the Lib Dems are not able to get any traction at all, despite Labour having the appeal of a wet sausage. Farron and Corbyn are both total duds. Though Corbyn's status as an astoundingly bad 'Leader' of the Opposition is obviously more important.

That the Tories can have such a lead when there's obvious fears for the future and the pound is tanking alarmingly shows just how the others have vacated the field. It's an appalling state of affairs.

AlastairMeeks

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

AlastairMeeks

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Ok

so where's Jezza's ?

Proof that while even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a great enough height, the same is not true of 21st century socialism.

david_herdson

The regional splits are, if anything, even worse for Labour (if unweighted, like the age groups). They've pulled out quite a decent lead in Wales but elsewhere, it's awful:

Scot: SNP +21 (over Con)
Wales: Lab +15 (over Con)
North: Con +12
Mids: Con +23
Sth: Con +28

Eng overall: Con +25

Lucian_Fletcher

TGOHF said:

So no group over 24 shows Corbo ahead.

Bwahahahaha.

Someone tweeted that the Tories are ahead in every social class. Labour under Corbyn doesn't really have a floor.

dr_spyn

This might be worrying for Labour if it is the case. Voting intention by social class. @Lucian_Fletcher

https://twitter.com/davidottewell/status/785446471705518080

FrancisUrquhart

Corbyn with oldies about as popular as Trump with Latinos.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

justin124

Let us see what the other pollsters say. Of late ICM have been somewhat out of line with the rest of the pack - Mori-Yogov-Opinium - and Survation.

TGOHF

justin124 said:

Let us see what the other pollsters say. Of late ICM have been somewhat out of line with the rest of the pack - Mori-Yogov-Opinium - and Survation.

Lol - Corybn is Kryptonite to anyone old enough to grow facial hair.

glw

dr_spyn said:

This might be worrying for Labour if it is the case.

The only social class that Labour cares about now is relatively wealthy urban middle-class lefties. ICM could do with creating a split just for them.

Alanbrooke

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa, Sic transit gloria mundi.

Even Gordon Brown got conference bounces.

Ok

so where's Jezza's ?

Proof that while even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a great enough height, the same is not true of 21st century socialism.

More surprinsing is the clear lead in the 35-64 cohort. Looks like all those Thatcher Children are becoming Thatcherite

Joff Wild for Tory party chairman !

pinkrose

Labour are almost dead in Scotland and their suicidal stance on EU immigration/free movement is going to hurt them badly in England. How low can they go?

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

AlastairMeeks

A treacherous Remainer MP seeks to use Parliamentary oversight as a pretext for blocking Brexit:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/785452655451762688

Oh, my mistake.

justin124

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

I am not sure where you get the 6.5% swing from?

AlastairMeeks

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

I am not sure where you get the 6.5% swing from?

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

I am not sure where you get the 6.5% swing from?

I got it from inept maths. Apologies.

rottenborough

pinkrose said:

Labour are almost dead in Scotland and their suicidal stance on EU immigration/free movement is going to hurt them badly in England. How low can they go?

19%?

GIN1138

Ignore the opinion polls and stick to your guns Jezza!

PlatoSaid

Tom Wilson
More Brits definitely believe in Ghosts and UFOs than would vote Labour. https://t.co/LZwPBTo7la

david_herdson

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TGOHF said:

So no group over 24 shows Corbo ahead.

Bwahahahaha.

Someone tweeted that the Tories are ahead in every social class. Labour under Corbyn doesn't really have a floor.

Yes it does: a little over 313k.

OK, I jest but there will be a floor based on the hard left and oppositionists. It won't be a very high one but it'll be rich pickings for membership.

TGOHF

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

PlatoSaid

TGOHF said:

justin124 said:

Let us see what the other pollsters say. Of late ICM have been somewhat out of line with the rest of the pack - Mori-Yogov-Opinium - and Survation.

Lol - Corybn is Kryptonite to anyone old enough to grow facial hair.

Or has blue hair.

I'd blue hair once - and 17yrs old.

Slackbladder

TGOHF said:

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

was only a matter of time before something like this happened.

PlatoSaid

FrancisUrquhart said:

Corbyn with oldies about as popular as Trump with Latinos.

39% of Hispanics thought he'd won last night - are you talking just Latinos? I'd say he's more Black Lesbian voters here.

TCPoliticalBetting

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Jobabob

GIN1138 said:

Ignore the opinion polls and stick to your guns Jezza!

Really is getting a bit tired now GIN

rottenborough

Can someone explain the term, 'taking the fight to the Tories' please?

ThreeQuidder

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sky are reporting that Wayne Rooney will be dropped for tomorrow's match.

Well done Gareth

At last.

justin124

GIN1138 said:

Ignore the opinion polls and stick to your guns Jezza!

If the polls are similar to this next Spring - and confirmed by actual election results - I am sure there is a very good chance of Corbyn being challenged again - and with a much better chance of success.

Alanbrooke

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Jezza has a clear lead among people who cant be arsed to vote.

FrancisUrquhart

TGOHF said:

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

Its odd the BBC report miss the bit out about them throwing rocks at him to start with.

TGOHF

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

MTimT

david_herdson said:

The regional splits are, if anything, even worse for Labour (if unweighted, like the age groups). They've pulled out quite a decent lead in Wales but elsewhere, it's awful:

Scot: SNP +21 (over Con)
Wales: Lab +15 (over Con)
North: Con +12
Mids: Con +23
Sth: Con +28

Eng overall: Con +25

So, Labour are losing everywhere except Wales, which voted for Brexit and is about to lose a boatload of seats in Westminster. Jezza delivers.

Cyclefree

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

justin124

Looking at the ICM crossbreaks the Tories have a 30% lead amongst women voters but only 11% amongst men. Prima facie that looks odd!

FrancisUrquhart

Cyclefree said:

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

Ed Balls is crap, but still in....

stodge

Afternoon all

Not a huge surprise - the Conservatives are the last to have their Conference as the Party of Government gets plenty of coverage. Theresa Mail gets eulogised by a number of the newspapers and it all looks rosy.

The background is a benign autumn and all the apocalyptic consequences of voting to LEAVE the EU as meaningful as the fears over Y2K. The world hasn't ended so far but is there a fin de siècle sense out there ?

For non-Conservatives like myself, it's a difficult time but a) nothing lasts forever and b) this Government looks like one which will make more than its fair share of gaffes, blunders and errors that will draw support away but how do non-Conservatives break down the Conservative dominance among older voters ?

The art will be, as Blair demonstrated, to create a non-threatening alternative. Blair turned Labour into a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left for which ex-Conservative voters could vote safe in the knowledge the fundamentals of the Thatcher revolution would be preserved.

At the moment, no such alternative exists - again, that won't last for ever.

AndyJS

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

Labour holds four seats in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and all of them have a relatively old age profile. They could lose all of them at this rate. The same is true for Labour's three seats in Cumbria, in Barrow, Copeland and Workington.

Charles

Cyclefree said:

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

So overall you couldnt recommend a purchase?

Casino_Royale

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

Alanbrooke

AndyJS said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

Labour holds four seats in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and all of them have a relatively old age profile. They could lose all of them at this rate. The same is true for Labour's three seats in Cumbria, in Barrow, Copeland and Workington.

Tristam Hunt to join the Tories ?

FrancisUrquhart

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

Nah...she will listen to Justin and convince herself that Labour aren't screwed at all.

Tissue_Price

AndyJS said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

Labour holds four seats in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and all of them have a relatively old age profile. They could lose all of them at this rate.

Newcastle's a definite gonner, and Stoke-on-Trent South would probably go Tory too on current form. Central might still be vulnerable to UKIP even while they're imploding; Tristram Hunt's a perfect opponent for them. Ruth Smeeth ought to hold on in North.

Amazingly, the reorganisation of the 3 SOT seats into 2 might actually help Labour, despite outwardly being clearly bad news.

Sean_F

TGOHF said:

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?

pinkrose

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

If May goes to the Country on a Brexit manifesto of ending free movement and single market access not membership, surely the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could not stand as Tories?

Lucian_Fletcher

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Not biting, not biting.

OK. I'll bite. I don't think teenagers can account for 48% of the electorate.

CarlottaVance

After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......

You ok, hun?

JackW

National - Rasmussen

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10

Sean_F

TGOHF said:

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

Zero sympathy for anyone who chucks rocks at passing motorists.

Ishmael_X

rottenborough said:

Can someone explain the term, 'taking the fight to the Tories' please?

Going on the offensive against them, on issues of one's own choosing rather than theirs. I think.

Lucian_Fletcher

Cyclefree said:

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

No. Everything is crap.

MaxPB

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?

Corbyn rock, like Christian rock but even more anti-Semitic.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So for over 65s we have from 47/23 (+24) at the GE to 63/15 (+48) now. Yikes!

tpfkar

Cyclefree said:

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

Yes - in the midst of the crapfest, UKIP are serenely gliding to Government. Their long-standing leader is wowing hearts and minds, capturing the zeitgeist across the nation. Their internal battles are being decisively won and the losers are all getting behind each other. And they are going international - Nigel claims to be supporting Trump but if the Donald has to drop out, Nigel has some experience of picking up the pieces when the leader stands down unexpectedly.....

[Deleted User]

At what point in the journey towards deep disappointment do those who are convinced their man Jezza can win a GE get hit on the head with cluebat? Is it only a GE disaster that will learn 'em? Is there an intermediate failure that will get them to say 'hang on a mo'? Labour's membership seems to me to be trashing the hopes of its traditional voters.

Essexit

TGOHF said:

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Well if that doesn't win over the floating voters I don't know what will.

PlatoSaid

AndyJS said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

Labour holds four seats in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and all of them have a relatively old age profile. They could lose all of them at this rate. The same is true for Labour's three seats in Cumbria, in Barrow, Copeland and Workington.

Very helpful, thnx

Charles

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Not biting, not biting.

OK. I'll bite. I don't think teenagers can account for 48% of the electorate.

Showing your age there!

Teenaged scribbles was a Lawson description of city analysts (but presumably by extension all members of the commetariat)

MTimT

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?

Used to like the Farm and Jim Jones, no idea who the rest are.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

Zero sympathy for anyone who chucks rocks at passing motorists.

I think it would be legitimate to use potentially lethal force to defend oneself in such situations.

The French police should be patrolling the roads and using water cannon, and even armed with plastic/rubber bullets, if it is getting that nasty.

nunu

Oh shit trump is dead
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10

619

JackW said:

National - Rasmussen

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10

Clinton +7 with rassumen??? No wonder the GOP started dumping him this weekend. Without the Republican lean, that's a double digit lead nationally for Clinton

ThreeQuidder

justin124 said:

Looking at the ICM crossbreaks the Tories have a 30% lead amongst women voters but only 11% amongst men. Prima facie that looks odd!

Corbyn's woman problem!

Casino_Royale

pinkrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

If May goes to the Country on a Brexit manifesto of ending free movement and single market access not membership, surely the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could not stand as Tories?

That would be a tragedy.

Anorak

MaxPB said:

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?

Corbyn rock, like Christian rock but even more anti-Semitic.

Buuuuuurn

Lucian_Fletcher

We've just had a survey in the office as to which in the 'stellar' Jezza concert anyone has heard of. The Farm had a hit and obviously, everyone knows Paul Weller but, erm, Stealing Sheep?

PlatoSaid

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

Well, have been very busy so have not had time to read threads or papers or do anything very much other than work.

Based on the little I've gleaned: Corbyn is still crap, his Shadow Front Bench is a collection of crapness, Trump is still crap, worse crap than before, Clinton is crap but less crap than Trump, May may or may not be crap, Brexit may or may not be crap but will certainly be a cluster-fuckness of crapness if Liam Fox is in charge.

Have I missed anything important?

So overall you couldnt recommend a purchase?

I really wish someone would do an Amazon review of political parties as funny as these

“If ‘1984’ or ‘The Trial’ had been a children’s book, Mr Messy would be it. No literary character has ever been so fully and categorically obliterated by the forces of social control. Hargreaves may well pay homage to Kafka and Orwell in this work, but he also goes beyond them.

We meet Mr Messy – a man whose entire day-to-day existence is the undiluted expression of his individuality. His very untidiness is a metaphor for his blissful and unselfconscious disregard for the Social Order. Yes, there are times when he himself is a victim of this individuality – as when he trips over a brush he has left on his garden path – but he goes through life with a smile on his face.

That is, until a chance meeting with Mr Neat and Mr Tidy – the archetypal men in suits…The book ends with a dry reminder from Hargreaves that just as with the secret police in some totalitarian regime, our own small expressions of uniqueness and volition may also result in a visit from these sinister suited agents.”

https://www.amazon.co.uk/review/R24HIHKBR9DYCU/ref=cm_cr_dp_cmt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1405235640&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=266239&store=books#wasThisHelpful

Alanbrooke

pinkrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

If May goes to the Country on a Brexit manifesto of ending free movement and single market access not membership, surely the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could not stand as Tories?

would anyone care ?

TCPoliticalBetting

Charles said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Not biting, not biting.

OK. I'll bite. I don't think teenagers can account for 48% of the electorate.

Showing your age there!

Teenaged scribbles was a Lawson description of city analysts (but presumably by extension all members of the commetariat)

Yes, Mr Lawson's label for the commentariat.

Anorak

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

This sounds horrific - the driver must be in a bad place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/calais-migrant-dies-after-being-run-over-by-british-driver/

"A migrant from the so-called Calais "jungle" has died after being run over by a British driver.

The Eritrean migrant was part of a group that were throwing rocks at passing cars on the A16 motorway in a bid to make them slow down so they could climb on top of them"

"A French police spokesman said the driver stopped his vehicle and attempted to the help the group but was forced to flee the scene when they attacked him.

"The driver who was attacked by migrants at the scene of the accident drove off and presented himself spontaneously to border police present at the channel tunnel site," he said, adding that an inquiry had been launched. "

Zero sympathy for anyone who chucks rocks at passing motorists.

I think it would be legitimate to use potentially lethal force to defend oneself in such situations.

The French police should be patrolling the roads and using water cannon, and even armed with plastic/rubber bullets, if it is getting that nasty.

The cars in Mad Max 2 spring to mind, for some reason.

justin124

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

Labour MPs who did that would be denied endorsement by the NEC.
IF the polls were to be like this next Spring I am sure Corbyn will seek to block any chance of an election by forcing May to table a Vote of No confidence in her Govt.

TGOHF

MTimT said:

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Here's one oldie that supports Jezza - Paul Weller.

http://www.mojo4music.com/24697/paul-weller-supergroup-play-concert-for-corbyn/

PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.

Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.

Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.

Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?

Used to like the Farm and Jim Jones, no idea who the rest are.

Corybnites remind me of a Jim Jones - the one who set up shop in Guyana....

SirBenjamin

Running the ICM numbers through Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 125 on the new boundaries.

Tories gain Tooting, Wakefield, Mansfield, Darlington, Spen, several seats in Birmingham...

Dromey, Alan J, Danczuk, Creagh, Geraint D all lose their seats.

UKIP (notionally with two seats) wiped out.
Greens don't take a Brighton seat but do win Bristol W
LDs actually gain one (though from a notional base of just four) - Cambridge
SNP more or less unaffected

All (doubly) theoretical of course, but would be a fascinating election night to watch!


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=43&LAB=26&LIB=8&UKIP=11&Green=6&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015nb

Lucian_Fletcher

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Charles said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Re: ICM age polls. The older people get, the wiser they get and the more likely they are to vote Conservative.

Just like Brexit. It is the teenage scribblers who support Corbyn and Remain.....
(clickbait comment)

Not biting, not biting.

OK. I'll bite. I don't think teenagers can account for 48% of the electorate.

Showing your age there!

Teenaged scribbles was a Lawson description of city analysts (but presumably by extension all members of the commetariat)

Yes, Mr Lawson's label for the commentariat.

Fair to say that you got me. I feared I was about to be got!

Andrew

619 said:

JackW said:

National - Rasmussen

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10

Clinton +7 with rassumen??? No wonder the GOP started dumping him this weekend. Without the Republican lean, that's a double digit lead nationally for Clinton

Wednesday to Sunday polling - the tapes came out when? Thusday late?

PlatoSaid

Frank Luntz
Who interrupted the most during last night's #debate ? The moderators.

https://t.co/NrAt2ut5FP https://t.co/ONOPmhA85R

PlatoSaid

House of Commons
Today's statement, from @DavidDavisMP on next steps in leaving the #EU, is expected at approx 4.15pm #Brexit https://t.co/gANOTYwRK2

PlatoSaid

Saving Labour
Today's Guardian/ICM figures would result in a Tory majority of 125 under the new boundaries. Source: https://t.co/81aFk8JM8G https://t.co/FkasN3nFAs

619

Andrew said:

619 said:

JackW said:

National - Rasmussen

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10

Clinton +7 with rassumen??? No wonder the GOP started dumping him this weekend. Without the Republican lean, that's a double digit lead nationally for Clinton

Wednesday to Sunday polling - the tapes came out when? Thusday late?

Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.

Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week

PlatoSaid

Fox
.@mike_pence on @realDonaldTrump: "I'm proud of the job that he did and proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with him" #debate @foxandfriends https://t.co/WeTBBFI1XP

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

pinkrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

If May goes to the Country on a Brexit manifesto of ending free movement and single market access not membership, surely the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could not stand as Tories?

would anyone care ?

Don't they remember the damage that falling out over repealing the Corn Laws did ?

BannedInParis

justin124 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

Labour MPs who did that would be denied endorsement by the NEC.
IF the polls were to be like this next Spring I am sure Corbyn will seek to block any chance of an election by forcing May to table a Vote of No confidence in her Govt.

You're assuming Corbyn is, in some way, competent.

Your call.

chestnut

The most significant thing about the >75 rating is that these are the voters born into the post war welfare state.

The children of Beveridge vote Tory after a lifetime of exposure to the different management teams.

Casino_Royale

AndyJS said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's quite the split among the over-75s.

It would be useful to see how those splits compare with the splits at the general election. Does any kind soul have those to hand?

Not quite, Ipsos Mori analysed the over 65s.

They broke

Con 47%

Lab 23%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.

Labour holds four seats in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and all of them have a relatively old age profile. They could lose all of them at this rate. The same is true for Labour's three seats in Cumbria, in Barrow, Copeland and Workington.

They look safe, but I'd be nervous about Labour seats in very strongly voting Leave areas, like Doncaster, Bolsover, Hartlepool, and Dudley North if i were a Labour MP.

PlatoSaid

Gideon Skinner
Con and Lab supporters equally likely to worry about NHS in @IpsosMORI issues index - the differences between them are on other issues https://t.co/no73vAuzXz

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

I wouldn't worry about this. It's not like the elderly vote. Labour has the crucial 18-24 year old demographic on-side.

justin124

BannedInParis said:

justin124 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.

Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.

It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)

Labour MPs who did that would be denied endorsement by the NEC.
IF the polls were to be like this next Spring I am sure Corbyn will seek to block any chance of an election by forcing May to table a Vote of No confidence in her Govt.

You're assuming Corbyn is, in some way, competent.

Your call.

It would be an obvious justification for effectively deselecting them!

619

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
.@mike_pence on @realDonaldTrump: "I'm proud of the job that he did and proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with him" #debate @foxandfriends https://t.co/WeTBBFI1XP

ha ha ha ha ha

Trump is going to ruin Pence's career like he did with Cruz's. Sad!

Jobabob

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
.@mike_pence on @realDonaldTrump: "I'm proud of the job that he did and proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with him" #debate @foxandfriends https://t.co/WeTBBFI1XP

The dreaded vote of confidence.

Keep them coming – endless entertainment from the rattled PB Trumper Morning Shift

[Deleted User]

chestnut said:

The most significant thing about the >75 rating is that these are the voters born into the post war welfare state.

The children of Beveridge vote Tory after a lifetime of exposure to the different management teams.

Oldies have witnessed lefty governments and righty governments - and seen first hand what works and what doesn't. You need to be an 18-24 ingénue to be a committed and fervent idiot.