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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair
I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative.
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http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4175/politicalbetting-com-page-not-found#latest
I accidentally published the draft of a post I was deleting
The loss of inward investment is the real kicker during this period of uncertainty
My only bet on this is for Trump placed long before he got the republican nomination. Looked pretty good for a while but an all but certain loser now. And thank the lord for that.
Sopan Deb Verified account
@SopanDeb
In Ambridge, Trump warns of voter fraud again - urges his supporters to "watch other communities."
At most barring from public office, I would have thought.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYh66_KweOg
Dan Merica Retweeted Marc E. Elias
Clinton campaign lawyer says the Florida Federal Court has extended voter registration to Wednesday at 5p due to Hurricane Matthew.
No idea what 5p means tho.
The chances of the polls being wrong must be rather greater than usual because of the novel coalition that Donald Trump has put together. But ultimately I trust the Republican party establishment's judgement on this.
Is it those sneaky buggers from Waterley Cross again?
I cannot see much value on Trump, even on the current 5.7. I cannot see a viable way for him to win FOP. I think the value has mostly gone on the State markets too.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151552548531/why-i-endorse-gary-johnson-this-week
I absolutely smell an Osborne. Those who campaigned to Remain are now campaigning just as hard for the single market as a proxy.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37603685
'Acid-washed emails'
Claim: Donald Trump claims Hillary Clinton "acid washed" 33,000 personal emails to delete them, something he said was an "expensive process".
Reality Check verdict: A claim that has been debunked before. The FBI said Clinton's team used a free software programme called BleachBit. No chemicals were used. When he first made this claim, Trump's campaign said that he did not literally mean "acid washed", adding that it was a play on words and reference to a joke made by Clinton about "wiping" her email server with a cloth. BleachBit debunked Trump's claim on its website saying the software is not "very expensive," adding that it is completely free of charge.
No chemicals were used... you have to laugh
Right now I suggest that the key question is not remain v leave, or hard v soft Brexit.
The most relevant Q is whether we think the government now has at least the outline of an agreed strategy and common approach in place, with the key players more or less on the same page, and is simply doing its best to protect our negotiating position by endeavouring to keep the decisions behind closed doors. And, further, that much of the comment and consequential analysis that is being made might well be clever conditioning in advance of A50 and the formal discussions.
Or, on the other hand, whether we think that the government is still basically clueless and playing things by ear, that the key players have their own agendas with May struggling to keep them in line, that there is a tussle going on mainly inside the Tory party between hard and soft, and a certain amount of fear of those outside the party backing each position (basically UKIP on the one hand and big business on the other).
Whilst the debate here indicates that most remainers lean toward the more pessimistic second view and most leavers towards the optimistic former, it is of course perfectly possible to be a leaver who doesn't think the government is handling it well or has yet got its act together, or a Remainer who believes that May mostly knows what she is doing.
Personally I would have expected to see a bit more common purpose from the top Tories before I bought into the first view. Unfortunately egos are often problematic in politics and the very long-lasting nature of the divisions within the Conservatives together with the suddenness with which we found ourselves in uncharted waters, coupled with experience that clued up politicians with agreed strategies are relatively uncommon, suggests to me that the government probably has a lot more work still to do before we get to March and A50. Plus there are lots of loose ends (Scotland, N Ireland and the border, Gibralter, the legal cases, etc.) still unresolved.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
The leader says something awful and the rest of the party disown him.
Democrats and indies who vote Clinton wont split the ticket like that if you support Trump.
If you denounce Trump, you may get a split ticket vote, but you will get a good portion of crazy trumpers voting against you. Even if u survive, you might get primaried for next time.
So, your kinda screwedd either way
'Theresa May will have the debates in 2020, she should do everything in her power to ensure Jeremy Corbyn is seen by the wider public, remember the vast majority of the public don't pay attention to politics apart from at a general election'
In answer to your question of the other day, the two currencies that have depreciated more than Sterling since June 24 are: the Mozambican Metzical, and the Sierra Leonean Leone.
I haven't been to SL, but I think that Mozambique has had a bit of a raw deal. It is a lovely country and people.
On rolling the dice and getting double sixes vs snake eyes, well Brexit is neither. It is pre-emptive action to protect the nation from a future populist uprising that we've been seeing in the US. They are very lucky that Nige is ineligible to run for president over there, he would have absolutely walked it, and the problems in America don't go away when Trump loses.
All across the EU we're seeing populists in the ascendancy or rising. Fidesz won in Poland, Orban is dominant in Hungary, Bepe Grillo is probably going to be the next Italian PM, Le Pen is in with a shout in France, the FPO will probably win the rerun in Austria, AfD will comfortably be the largest non-governing party in the Bundestag. There are also more UKIP style parties in Northern Europe, PVV in the Netherlands, the True Finns are in the governing coalition, the Sweden Democrats are polling relatively well and will gain seats, possibly end up as the largest party.
So looking across the channel at the rebellion against the establishment, Brexit is a symptom of the larger disease of wealth and income inequality. It is at times like these that we must look after our own and get our own house in order or everything we've built will be swept away. I'd rather Brexit than deal with a very messy populist uprising in 10-15 years.
Modern Britain has been fantastic at avoiding revolution. We're doing it again now.
But, Clinton doesn't need to win big to win the Senate. The Republicans are defending 24 out of 34. If the Democrats gain just 4, they take control.
Well, yes, that is partially true, although something like a third of votes will be cast in early voting well before November 8th.
Even if that were not the case, though, the die seems to be, if not yet quite cast, at least solidifying rapidly. It's miles too late to bump Trump off the ticket. The pros and cons (mostly cons) of the two candidates have been clear for yonks. Senior Republicans are backing away as fast as they can. The polls are coming thick and fast, and they're mostly dire for Trump.
Sure, something might turn up. But, most likely, it won't.
a/ Some of those on the Leave side now downplaying importance of immigration are in danger of self-delusion
b/ The immigration of past 15 yrs/TV pics of refugee crisis was a necessary condition for Vote Leave to win but it was not sufficient
c/ Idea that there was a majority for Leave based just on desire for democratic self-government is, unfortunately, a romantic delusion
Blue passports will of course be more than adequate compensation.
And, of course, if people aren't happy after we Leave they can always campaign to Rejoin.
Well, duh...
(1) There have been several examples within the past 12 months of where the political polling has been out by a considerable margin - Brexit / Spain / Austria
(2) Political polls seem to be particularly prone to be out when one view is particularly controversial / considered toxic - Brexit post-the Jo Cox murder / Austria again with Hofer / AfD in the state polls in Germany to a lesser degree (ps before anyone starts claiming with Brexit that the polls were "right all along", that is a revisionist argument by the polling companies to save themselves: they generally were not).
We know that Trump is considered toxic and also that he attracts a lot of bile. So, if we are assuming that the polls are right in this election, then that would mean that:
(1) US polling is of higher infinitely quality than that in Europe and / or;
(2) That US voters are willing to state their views in a way that European voters are not
I definitely do not see much evidence of (1) and, given the US is probably more PC-led than Europe, I have considerable doubts about (2).
So, while Trump looks the underdog, it would be dangerous to place too much emphasis on the polls.
Finally, a point that was raised by Williamglenn earlier - what is interesting about the polls is that, in many cases, the two combined struggle to score above a combined percentage of 90% and that, generally, when Clinton's lead extends, it is more because Trump's score falls than HRC's rises. That may - but only may - be a sign of "Shy Trumpsters".
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/785596818054840320
My last major trade was balancing my book against Donald @ ~3.1 a few minutes into the first debate right as he was stumbling over his tax returns.
Currently;
+27 Clinton
+75 Kaine
+-0 Donald & everyone else who can be laid
+150 Anyone else.
I could green out for +22.5, but I think Clinton is still value @ 1.24 so I'm not going to.
A bit of tarring and feathering is long overdue.
It's one man, one vote. Tezza is the man, she has the one vote.