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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the gr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the ground in Witney
Witney is a safe Tory seat was made ultra safe by the relatively equal division between Reds and Yellows plus the bonus of having the PM as MP. Last time out Labour thumped Lib Dems in the undercard. In the referendum Remain won 54-46.
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There's usually a personal vote increase for party leaders, which should theoretically unwind this time.
In general terms for a betting site it is important to know a broad range of information including any falsehoods out there from BOTH sides.
Although this information can be dissected here by the politically astute this is quite simply not the case in the general public. They normally take a view based on their own beliefs and prejudices on whichever side of the political spectrum they stand. To a point, we all do it consciously or sub consciously it's in the nature of the human mind. We have seen this recently in our own referendum from both sides so from a betting prospective only, its better to have a full overview.
It quite simply doesn't matter if that which is in circulation is true or untrue, it's in circulation and its what people believe rightly or wrongly to be true that can determine the election outcome and of course most importantly, the difference between a winning or a losing bet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37605311
The question would seem to be whether that's to drive with Magnussen or if another chap will also join the team.
Trump didn't say he'd jail Hillary without trial blah blah - but his supporters heard Hillary For Prison. That's the talent he has for soundbites.
For my part, rule by technocracy tends towards the anti-humane because based on two flaws:
1. That the needs of the many outweigh the needs of few (ie a reductive utilitarianism)
2. That the needs of the many are even knowable.
Ultimately we cannot be reduced to numbers or equations.
Ideology is vital as a reflection of morality, whether held individually or communally. Whether one prefers equality over liberty simply has to be ideological, and necessarily has to inform a great deal of political decisionmaking.
Mormons are understandably more Umm, but the Utah GOP have said they'd back him.
SCOTUS is the key here. It's enormously important and I fear that very many PBers simply don't get it as a swing point.
Edit to add: I see him as a campaigner not a leader.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/09/utah-republicans-against-trump/
One factor, on top of the local ones listed, as to why the Lib Dem playbook isn't apparently gaining much traction is that their attempts to play the tactical game only work if there's a good motivation to engage in it. Starting from well behind, with Corbynite Labour enthused and - most importantly - with the May still in something of a honeymoon period, that doesn't really apply. Sure, the Tories aren't overwhelmingly popular - the big poll leads are probably more a relative thing than an absolute one - but only to a degree. If the Cons were genuinely unpopular then even if Labour was seen as worse, there'd be much more leakage to the LDs and UKIP taking place independently of campaigning than there has been.
That said, the LD share should indeed be well up and it'll be interesting to see whether Farron can piggy-back of a decent result to get more coverage (and if he can, whether he can make much of it). I remain far from convinced by his strategic thinking in terms of positioning the Lib Dems to maximise the opportunities presented by Labour's troubles.
And in that spirit, here's an archetypal Trump evangelist:
https://mediamatters.org/video/2016/10/10/trump-ally-alex-jones-i-was-told-people-around-clinton-shes-demon-possessed/213712
I've been told this by high up folks. They say listen, Obama and Hillary both smell like sulfur. I never said this because the media will go crazy with it, but I've talked to people that are in protective details, they're scared of her. And they say listen, she's a frickin' demon and she stinks and so does Obama. I go, like what? Sulfur. They smell like Hell....
(This guy has a syndicated radio audience in the millions.)
Indeed..... Chortles** checked and appears not to be on the PB ban list.
A share north of 20%, and well clear of Labour, would be a good result for them.
That being said, if the LibDems with their dodgy barcharts illustrative graphics can persuade a sizeable chunk of the Labour vote that they are the way to "beat the Tories", then maybe.
My best guess is:
Con - 48%
LDs - 21%
Lab - 11%
UKIP - 10%
Green - 6%
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/try-turn-whole-life-one-big-hate-crime/
Difficult to know what Farron can do.
One weak spot - in an era when our economic model is under great scrutiny - is to have his shadow Chancellor in the Lords (Baroness Kramer). Someone even more invisible than Farron.
What's Vince Cable doing these days?
English Independence Corbyn Anti
Labour Tracy Brabin
Liberty GB Jack Buckby
National Front Richard Edmonds
BNP David Furness
English Democrats Therese Hirst
Independent Waqas Ali Khan
Independent Garry Kitchin
One Love Party Ankit Love
Independent Henry Mayhew
Labour to romp home on a low turnout. English Democrats to come 2nd?
SCOTUS is much wider than Roe vs Wade - it's death penalty and loads of other things we aren't even thinking of yet.
The liberal left are in charge of:
- education, via unions, faculties et al
- the media
- most multinationals in favour of globalisation
Plus prospect of immigration from alien cultures ie Arabs/ME
The view was that without SCOTUS - and a Democrat in office - the GOP was buggered. Social change would be too far gone, and the voting base would be swung massively towards Muslims. Immigration, liberal ideas et al would be embedded and America would fundamentally change.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/someone-is-distributing-fake-leaflets-to-try-and-disrupt-the
Media fussing barely dented him? Aside from early indications of a sharp drop in polls and open warfare in the Republican caucuss, you're right, barely a scratch
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/06/28/ex-secret_service_agent_people_need_to_know_the_real_hillary_clinton_and_how_dangerous_she_is.html
His byline: "The Crime is Life. The Sentence is Death".
"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has postponed a planned visit to France amid a row over Syria, French presidential sources say."
racist, xenophobeoppressed, too-long-ignored wwc vote will be split.He'd make a better Home Secretary than Rudd.
Mr. Herdson, on the other hand, if the Lib Dems are less an empire and more a roving band of barbarians, the line between tactics and strategies becomes rather faded.
Anyway, I must be off to do some work.
To date Labour have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations in every electoral test that they've faced to date. That pattern might well continue.
And I am reasonably confident that plenty of Ohio barflies see this as the sort of behaviour that would render Trump as the bar asshole in their preferred haunts.
I dont like either candidate, but if Europe is an example " controversial" canndiates and parties get under-recordced both in the polls and increasingly in the exit forecasts.
In German elections the media has consistently called the AfD vote about 3-4% below what they actually achieve. The problem with villainisation is eventually people start lying because they dont want to say what they think.
I cant see the US being that different.
On Batley and Spen, right-wing nationalists are really spoiled for choice - I see 5 candidates who I'd think are to the right of UKIP. Considering the circumstances leading to the by-election, you might have thought they'd be a bit more shy.
If there wasn't a free SCOTUS seat to encourage people otherwise totally unenthused by Trump Hilary would be home and dry against Trump.
He's swapped sides because IMO - he thinks America has lost it's way, it's become supine/losing its edge and pride 'Make America Great Again' isn't a slogan - it's a core belief.
I'd stick him in the Reagan mindset politically - clearly he's not suave - but he's a cowboy.
I don't think that you're far out, but I don't see UKIP going up since they have been going down in local by-elections since the GE.
I'd say UKIP 5% (lost deposit area), maybe add 2% on to both Con and LD.
https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/?gclid=CjwKEAjwm_K_BRDx5o-sxq6ouXASJAC7TsFLNZYnsHvgOJPPY3iTOk8sQuuz8iMd7xfWze92FNdLURoCGuzw_wcB
A 8 point lean to Dems is entirely expected.
Yep. And then there's turnout. Back in July 56% of Americans wanted Hillary Clinton indicted. Only 35% actively didn;t
IF the current polls are correct then it seems some people who wanted Hillary indicted now want her to be President....???!!???
Seems a bit funny to me.
https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/784942158193258496
Scratch Paris then.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/vtb-brexit-london-hq-move-2016-10
I was in a state of unshock when at the end of 1981 Reagan hadnt nuked the Soviets. The same garbage continued throughout his presidency by which time he had brought the Cold War to an end.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300333-clintons-ohio-rally-sets-attendance-record
www.hl.co.uk/pensions/drawdown
If you are Ok with managing your investments and aren't going to get tempted into spending all the money on the first day, I think it is well worth investigating. It is my plan for the DC part of my pension, which I will be able to draw in about two years time. I wouldn't, however, think that trading a final salary arrangement for it is likely to be sensible?
Plato - careful questioning the demogaphic sample of the polls, you're angerously close to becoming PB's own Dick Morris and 'un-skewing the polls', we all remember how that worked out...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/02/dick-morris-the-worst-pundit-of-2012-156255
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/annuity-guide
Google 'Invested Annuity' too, can go up and down but better rate than standard annuity. I think only Aviva doing them now, LV and Pru have stopped.
If you're lucky enough to have final salary, look carefully before moving out of it.
DYOR.
Kennedy made Clinton look like an amateur. The truth is, they all have feet of clay in one way or another. The establishment don;t want Trump because he won't play ball.
The danger for Clinton is that voters see the rampant double standards.
Was she complaining about the Fire Marshalls as well?
I've said it on an earlier thread - but it doesn't bother me an iota. I worked at BT sales offices in the 90s where this was commonplace pub banter, and depending on the company at others.
I think it's a massive fuss about nothing for those who either hear it and dismiss - or care about other stuff a lot more. It shrieks chatterati class outrage who don't get it as a cultural thing. Sex in the City was very ribald. A Twitter friend was a male stripper and most amusing on his hen night experiences.
I simply think it's an attitude divide - women who aren't bothered give as good as they get - in kind. What currency 'in kind' comes in is another matter.
Perhaps they are restricting this one to seasoned doorknockers, given that rival campaigns might contain some contingent of interesting characters.
I worked in a BT sales and marketing office in the 80s and it was a pretty raucous place, the women giving as good as they got.
The disconnect between what the media thinks and what sections of the people think is enormous.
But as time has worn on, his utter lack of fitness for high office, coupled with his misogyny and willingness to play the racist card means I do not think he can supported - even against Clinton.
The grabbing pussy talk is objectionable not because of the word pussy but because it reveals a tolerance and even admiration of sexual violence.
I've been in the odd rugby locker room myself and never heard anyone actually boast of this.
Admit it, he's a bad 'un, and in good conscience he is unsupportable, no matter what you think of Clinton.