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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Regis
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012
The excellent US blog,InsightUS, is providing regular reports and analysis on early voting for the election which takes place four weeks today.
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Per RCP, Clinton lead today is 9 (4 way) or 10 (2 way).
Yesterday same poll lead was 11 (4 way) or 14 (2 way).
So how is her lead down by 7?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
It designated the railway companies as common carriers transporting goods and persons for the public benefit. Each railway company was now required to take all trade offered and to set and publish the same levels of fares to all in respect of any particular service.
While modern equality issues were not the reason behind it, the effect of the law was that railways couldnt refuse to sell you a ticket or charge you extra because you were black female or whatever.
Maybe if that approach had been taken with businesses providing services like B&B instead of the legislation protecting designated -ism victims it would have been simpler?
Just to prove that "real pussies" don't like Donald.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/hilarious-moment-cat-furiously-attacks-donald-trump-on-screen/
Did they back the Red Lib Dems to see Ed home, or prove that phone polls meant that Remain would win?
We'll really need till the end of the week to get much idea of the effect of the tapes+debate combo (especially on Sunday the SM poll comes out with a 1% MoE).
Key government adviser says leaving EU customs union will cost UK £25bn
Raoul Ruparel made the analysis prior to being appointed by David Davis to lend expertise on leaving the EU
The British economy will be hit by a “permanent cost” of more than £25bn if it decides to withdraw from the EU customs union, the government’s new key adviser on Brexit has said.
Raoul Ruparel, who has been hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the process of leaving the EU, said he believed there was no question over the UK staying inside Europe’s free trade bloc.
But he admitted that leaving the customs union, inside which EU countries negotiate trade deals collectively and set common external tariffs, would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term.
Ruparel’s comments, made before he was appointed to the senior government position, could provide ammunition for Labour MPs who have challenged the government’s trade secretary, Liam Fox, to prove the benefits of such a move.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/government-adviser-leaving-eu-customs-union-uk-25bn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Would certainly make life easier buying a rail ticket if common carrier was reinstated (it went in the 60s).
Most of the talk I've seen about it reflects how it affected freight traffic, and of the deleterious effect it had on the railways post-WWI. It's an interesting twist to consider how it might have affected he railways' attitude to passenger traffic.
[I'll bet that's not more unconvincing than the arguments the Trumpites come up with.]
If many Republicans decide to abstain because of Trump, and don't go out to vote, they'll lose votes in the House and Senate and for Governors..
The wise strategy for the RNC is to say "If you can't vote for Trump, then hold your nose and vote for Clinton. But make sure you vote Republican down the ticket. Whatever you do, don't abstain and stay at home."
I suspect, though this is a sensible strategy, it is a step too far for the RNC.
Are there any Senate markets up yet?
Edit I've found the Betfair market. Not very liquid at the moment. I must read the rules for a tie and regarding independents.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
(See the table of forecasts about half-way down).
It's actually quite hard to find any positive news for Trump over the past couple of weeks. Time to look closely at the ECV market, methinks.
Pre-Debate
Hillary 52
Trump 38
After Debate, (changes compared with their Sept.16th poll)
Hillary 49 -3 (+1)
Trump 42 +4 (+1)
Its the second lowest 2-way Hillary lead for a NBC/WSJ poll ever recorded since the GE campaign began (lowest was 5 points in July).
They haven't released the full 4 way figures for the post-debate poll, but it's also 7 points.
On the one hand, the 9/2 on Trump (BetStars) seems great value - and I have been on the brink of taking it twice tonight thanks to a combination of Tyson and Jonathan fretting and a dull game on the telly.
And yet and yet. Where is Trump's path? I think it's unlikely he wins PA. Which means he needs CO. It just looks out of reach for him there. So Michigan? Maybe. But maybe not.
The full article by Ruparel based on anlaysis by Open Europe is here
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/post-brexit-leaving-customs-union-no-brainer/
Note that both Norway and Switzerland are outside the Customs Union.
Wisconsin, Paul Ryan will stop him there.
Colorado, unless he sounds more intellectual I don't think so.
N.Hampshire, women don't like him, so no.
Pennsylvania, Philadelphia is located there, so I don't think so.
Michigan, could be, but large african american vote that is immovable.
Maine, it splits it's electoral votes so Hillary will pick up one regardless.
Hillary is afraid of Michigan and Pennsylvania being the state that puts Trump on top.
Purely on economics it doesn't make sense to me either, the world's largest technocratic nation, China, has prospered by exporting deflation to the rest of the world. That's not something which could continue indefinitely (and it hasn't) so now they've moved onto a credit fuelled boom which looks a lot like our GFC of 2007-9. The technocrats will make poor decisions as well. The worst part is that given their unelected nature they would not be easy to remove either. Look at the poor decision making by the EU Commission as an example closer to home, anyone could see that the migrant quota system was a poor idea and really the Commission should have told Germany they are on their own, since it was their policy of "all welcome" which opened the floodgates for migrants. Eastern European countries want to sack the Commission for that and Northern European countries hold Juncker as the responsible party for Brexit, yet he is still there coming up with batshit ideas and policies.
Technocratic government has too many downsides, both political and economic, plus it starts the gun on revolutionary action. Our democracy may have its flaws and is sometimes prone to an overreaction (see the PM on Brexit), but it is preferable to handing over the keys of Westminster to a bunch of unelected commissioners who are picked on who knows what criteria.
I'm not sure The Economist is in a happy place at the moment. It's not a journal I read any more (long before Brexit tbh). If they are advocating technocratic government for western nations then it shows just how rotten they have become. Democracy has produced results they don't like so now they look to restrict democracy. Really, they should be looking at the underlying causes behind the dissatisfaction of so many lower and middle income people in developed nations. Let me put it this way, I'm at the top of the income scale and my personal income has doubled over the last three years. I don't believe economics is a zero sum game, but clearly the prosperity of people at the top of the income scale is causing issues at the lower end. Technocratic government which locks up dissenters (the only way to keep everyone in line) is not the answer.
It's all arbitrary depending on their personal view.
In reality it could be from 0 to 500 billion gazillion trillion.
The Democrats have two independents who caucus with them (Sanders and King).
So the Republicans have to get 51 seats,and the Democrats have to get 53 seats (including the independents). Otherwise it is "neither". "Neither" looks a good value bet to me.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
https://www.ft.com/content/fbcc1bc6-8f0b-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923
I think this rivalry between Hammond and May is going to cause a lot of trouble for the government.
I guess he realises Ed Balls is on course to win, and why should he bother training for the next two months?
It's not very likely, though.
He has perhaps a 10-15% chance.
*runs and hides*
There is talk that the democrats are due for another panic with the polls next week.
And there is talk that they will release another tape sometime between the 15th and election day, though if it's as dull as this tape released today then Trump would be very lucky:
http://extratv.com/2016/10/11/what-you-didnt-see-when-donald-trump-made-his-days-of-our-lives-cameo/
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
"Whitehall sources said that the leaked papers are part of an ongoing "war" between Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, and Brexit ministers including Mr Davis, Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary, and Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary."
"A senior Treasury official yesterday launched a direct attack on on Dr Fox: "Liam is the one who needs to watch his back. Of him and Philip Hammond, I know which is more sackable, and it's not the chancellor."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/david-davis-accuses-treasury-officials-of-trying-to-undermine-br/
Trump was also leading in Florida until about the 1st debate.
So I think we are heading back towards the previous status, where Trump is losing by 3-5% nationally.
"George Osborne's pension reforms will backfire and end up costing the taxpayer billions of pounds more every year as people stop saving for their retirement, the official Treasury watchdog has warned.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said the removal of tax relief on pensions for higher earners - billed as a move to save money - will ultimately end up costing the Exchequer £5 billion a year."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/governments-draconian-pension-reforms-have-backfired-experts-war/
Indian-American woman, a US citizen since 8, told she must spend $345 for naturalization papers to vote in Wisconsin https://www.thenation.com/article/scott-walker-says-wisconsins-voter-id-law-is-working-just-fine-its-not/ …
The question is which MP will replace Hammond as Chancellor?