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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » White House Race round-up

SystemSystem Posts: 11,020
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » White House Race round-up

Latest WH2016 swing state polls from @politicalwire Continuing to look good for Cinton pic.twitter.com/8llCKpwEcJ

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  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Second like Unilever.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    FLOTUS: "Strong men... Don't need to put down women to make themselves feel powerful."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    Bob Dylan on the leave campaign, perhaps:

    While one who sings with his tongue on fire
    Gargles in the rat race choir
    Bent out of shape from society’s pliers
    Cares not to come up any higher
    But rather get you down in the hole
    That he’s in
  • Options
    Fpt
    JohnLoony said:

    If a POTUS is impeached, can he/she only be impeached for what he/she has done as POTUS? Or in any public office?

    For any high crimes and misdeameanours committed even before they took office as well during office and after leaving office.

    Spiro Agnew was threatened with impeachment as Vice President for crimes he committed as Governor of Maryland
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    Oh how wrong you are OGH.

    Only the Suffolk, North Carolina poll was done after the debate, you have to look at the date of the surveys.

    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    She is leading by 2 in N.Carolina, by 3 in Florida by 2 on average in Nevada, all consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around 4 points.

    You are behind the curve, the debate did wonders for Trump and cancelled the Tape.
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    That woman in Northumberland is a beard isn't she.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Well blow me down with a feather, Unilever / Tesco blockade is over.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Well blow me down with a feather, Unilever / Tesco blockade is over.

    Who won ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    It will be very interesting to see before and after on Unilver pricing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37650234
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Well blow me down with a feather, Unilever / Tesco blockade is over.

    Who won ?
    No word yet, but I am going to guess a score draw.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    Speedy said:

    Well blow me down with a feather, Unilever / Tesco blockade is over.

    Who won ?
    I bet Unilever will have gotten 3-4%, but that Tesco will freeze prices on Unilever products for a couple of weeks/months so that it looks like there was no price increase. Tesco will then gradually, a couple of pence at a time, raise the prices of various products.

    Just a guess.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    It will be very interesting to see before and after on Unilver pricing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37650234

    And I see that the Thai King has died too.
    I missed that one.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    Oh how wrong you are OGH.

    Only the Suffolk, North Carolina poll was done after the debate, you have to look at the date of the surveys.

    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    She is leading by 2 in N.Carolina, by 3 in Florida by 2 on average in Nevada, all consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around 4 points.

    You are behind the curve, the debate did wonders for Trump and cancelled the Tape.

    You keep repeating this "Trump's debate victory" myth.

    All the polls showed a Clinton win. You relate to other polls regularly but choose to ignore the debate polls. Very odd.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    I'm watching Trump's speech in Florida.

    "Our" campaign represents a "true existential threat" to "global special interests" - in particular to the "media" and "financial" interests who control Washington. The "global power structure" has "stripped our country of its wealth". The "Clinton machine" is at its centre. They meet with international banks to plot destruction in the US. Her and her "special interest friends". She's in it with the "New York Times".

    "LOCK HER UP" chants the delirious crowd.

    Earlier it was "USA! USA!"

    (Someone should tell this guy that "phenomena" is already plural and he doesn't need to say "phenomenas.)

    "This is a struggle for the survival of our nation." This election will determine whether we are a "free nation" or controlled by a handful of global special interests. "Anyone who challenges their control is deemed a sexist, a racist, a xenophobe, and morally deformed."
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    Oh how wrong you are OGH.

    Only the Suffolk, North Carolina poll was done after the debate, you have to look at the date of the surveys.

    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    She is leading by 2 in N.Carolina, by 3 in Florida by 2 on average in Nevada, all consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around 4 points.

    You are behind the curve, the debate did wonders for Trump and cancelled the Tape.

    Lol. You live under a rock? Trump is going to go to jail!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    619 said:
    She should have stood herself. She's excellent.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bob Dylan: outstanding choice.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    You know the person he won't dare attack is Michelle.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh how wrong you are OGH.

    Only the Suffolk, North Carolina poll was done after the debate, you have to look at the date of the surveys.

    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    She is leading by 2 in N.Carolina, by 3 in Florida by 2 on average in Nevada, all consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around 4 points.

    You are behind the curve, the debate did wonders for Trump and cancelled the Tape.

    You keep repeating this "Trump's debate victory" myth.

    All the polls showed a Clinton win. You relate to other polls regularly but choose to ignore the debate polls. Very odd.
    Imagine there were no polls on the debate at all, and look at all the other evidence of the campaign and other polling data. You would have to conclude that there was an event on Sunday that was favourable to Trump.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps Mich Obama can run in 2024 and reign until 2032 whilst Chelsea prepares to be POTUS from 32-40.

    By then one of the Bush grandchildren might have been clean long enough to win for the GOP.

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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    Michelle Obama doesn't want the Republican candidate to win? I'm shocked.
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    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    Michelle Obama Attacking Trump is like Juncker attacking Vote Leave.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh how wrong you are OGH.

    Only the Suffolk, North Carolina poll was done after the debate, you have to look at the date of the surveys.

    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    She is leading by 2 in N.Carolina, by 3 in Florida by 2 on average in Nevada, all consistent with a national lead for Hillary of around 4 points.

    You are behind the curve, the debate did wonders for Trump and cancelled the Tape.

    You keep repeating this "Trump's debate victory" myth.

    All the polls showed a Clinton win. You relate to other polls regularly but choose to ignore the debate polls. Very odd.
    If Trump hadn't won the debate then why has he bounced from being down by double digits from before the debate to less than Romney's defeat after the debate ?

    Average national Hillary lead post-tape, pre-debate: 12.5%
    Average national Hillary lead post-debate: 3.6%

    That's a 9 point shift, it's what you would see after a Debate Victory.

    So kneel before Zod ect ect, I still make the right calls for debate victors.
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    rcs1000 said:

    It will be very interesting to see before and after on Unilver pricing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37650234

    And carton sizes....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2016

    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    Michelle Obama Attacking Trump is like Juncker attacking Vote Leave.
    Many people feel assaulted by Leave, a predator using deception to achieve its ends.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    Speedy said:


    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    Silly. The debate was only four days ago. There are scarcely any national polls available yet that were done entirely after the debate. Nate Silver's site only shows three (and his highest rating for the pollsters is C+).

    If you really want to confine yourself to polling after the debate, you need to wait until sufficient data, of sufficient quality, have been released.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump says that "if you take a look at these people" who are making sexual abuse allegations against him, you will "understand" that all of the allegations are lies.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    He says he's preparing to sue the NYT. Crowd goes mental. Regarding one accuser: "You take a look. Look at her. (...) Tell me what you think."
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    Dromedary said:

    Trump says that "if you take a look at these people" who are making sexual abuse allegations against him, you will "understand" that all of the allegations are lies.

    It does seem odd that they decided to wait until now to speak rather than blowing him out of the water as soon as he became a candidate in the primaries.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2016
    I just had a chat to Sunil at a Santander Call Centre. V nice chap.. Was it you?
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
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    Dromedary said:

    He says he's preparing to sue the NYT. Crowd goes mental.

    He does seem to be taking the keep me in the headlines at all costs principle to extremes
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    Michelle Obama Attacking Trump is like Juncker attacking Vote Leave.
    Many people feel assaulted by the EU, a predator using deception to achieve its ends.
    :innocent:
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    Chris said:

    Speedy said:


    Using only the national polls done after the debate it's an average Hillary lead nationally of 3.6%.

    Silly. The debate was only four days ago. There are scarcely any national polls available yet that were done entirely after the debate. Nate Silver's site only shows three (and his highest rating for the pollsters is C+).

    If you really want to confine yourself to polling after the debate, you need to wait until sufficient data, of sufficient quality, have been released.
    There are 5 of them, that's a large enough number, even if one was an outlier it wouldn't have affected the average by much.

    And also the state polls, 4 post debate state polls that also agree with the 5 national polls.

    Those are too many polls to brush off.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    619 said:
    She should have stood herself. She's excellent.
    Her, Bernie, Biden, Elizabeth Warren all would have put Trump away by now, but Clinton is more concerned by gaining power then she is about defeating a far right Trump.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Sud off.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dromedary said:

    Trump says that "if you take a look at these people" who are making sexual abuse allegations against him, you will "understand" that all of the allegations are lies.

    An interesting strategy if nothing else.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Sud off.
    I bet you dont use Imperialist Leather to wash with.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FPT

    By the way, your premise that the EU has a logical conclusion through dissolution of the nation state is a sad, Brexit myth. It doesn't stand up to reason, or the facts.

    No it is not. When has the EU ever stopped seeking to centralise more and more power to itself, and when has it tolerated any meaningful moves to return competences to member states? The commitment to ever closer union is enshrined in the Treaty of Rome and taken very seriously.

    Besides, it won't let go of the Euro for love nor money, and that alone requires a federal treasury accountable to a federal government to make it work.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited October 2016
    Fpt
    nielh said:

    I've been following the debate on here for some time.
    I think people have far too much confidence on here that the current government can weather the course they have embarked on.
    There must be a high chance that the current government will fall, when the implications of the Brexit strategy fall in to place. As it is starting to now. Scotland is one issue, Ireland is another, the economic fallout of the fall in value of the pound another. And then there are a whole host of other interrelated issues, issues that have already been considered but will start to become more real over the next few months: what happens to trident if Scotland becomes independent. What happens to the land border in Ireland. and so on.
    These are all questions that we know about already, but they haven't been thought through by anyone to any conclusion, because there is so much uncertainty, and there are so many distractions as events roll out on a daily basis.
    The key developments I would argue is that there is now an organised 'opposition' in parliament. Businesses are spooked. The bizarre movements of the pound. The statements by Nissan, land rover, American banks. Petrol prices have risen 10%.
    In the town where I work every single private sector funded major investment project has been stopped or halted due to Brexit.
    I'm not saying anything new, but all I am saying is look at the volatility. It is completely unprecedented. The decision to go forward with leaving the EU would result in vast political, economic and constitional chaos. I don't believe that the government can weather it. I believe that they will fall, and that the tories will not be able to decide how resolve it when they call a general election, because the Brexitters are already starting to argue amongst themselves.

    And it is anyones guess how it could play out after that.

    I think people are in denial about the true scale of the political, economic and social volatility the UK is currently in. The phoney peace is currently coming to an end, and people are starting to wake up.

    On topic, from a betting point of view, I think the odds that A50 wont be triggered until the second half of next year are very good.

    Nice post.

    My own view is that it's when no one can see a catalyst for change in sight that change occurs.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    On the days events....

    Cheers to Bob Dylan..... Poet for our times...

    Massive cheers to Jessica Ennis Hill. A better role model for modern Britain would be very hard to find. She had my vote for Spoty in 12 and 15 and will have it again this year. You were fab Jess!

    And jeers to Tesco. If the anglish poond drops by more than 15%, prices are going to go up. Period. I noticed petrol was up by 2p at my local BP on the way home. This is the cost of taking back control.
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    Dromedary said:

    Trump says that "if you take a look at these people" who are making sexual abuse allegations against him, you will "understand" that all of the allegations are lies.

    If they are all jumped up trailer park trash wwc bimbettes he may have just game overed himself.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Imagine there were no polls on the debate at all, and look at all the other evidence of the campaign and other polling data. You would have to conclude that there was an event on Sunday that was favourable to Trump.

    What evidence ?!?

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,994

    Fpt

    JohnLoony said:

    If a POTUS is impeached, can he/she only be impeached for what he/she has done as POTUS? Or in any public office?

    For any high crimes and misdeameanours committed even before they took office as well during office and after leaving office.

    Spiro Agnew was threatened with impeachment as Vice President for crimes he committed as Governor of Maryland
    I have a little more fondness for Agnew after reading the history of the Shuttle program.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784

    Dromedary said:

    Trump says that "if you take a look at these people" who are making sexual abuse allegations against him, you will "understand" that all of the allegations are lies.

    It does seem odd that they decided to wait until now to speak rather than blowing him out of the water as soon as he became a candidate in the primaries.
    not really. They were scared of coming forward and only felt comfortable after the tape and debate where he said he never did it. very plausible.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:

    It is the logical conclusion affirmed by the opening passage in the Treaty of Rome. It is no myth.

    You may construe it that way. I do not.
    And looking at the policy of France, Germany, and the U.K. within the EU over the last decade or so - neither do they.
    Happily what you construe is of only incidental interest ;)

    To quote Sir Thomas More

    The world must construe according to its wits; this court must construe according to the law.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    619 said:

    michelle obama leading the attack on trump. This will be on prime time news. Will he take the bait and attack her back?

    FLOTUS: "I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women."

    .@FLOTUS: "We have a candidate for president of the United States that has said things about women that are so shocking...so demeaning"

    FLOTUS on Trump tape: "It has shaken me to my core."

    "It now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident," Michelle Obama says of Trump

    FLOTUS: "This wasn’t locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior.”

    FLOTUS: "It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt.

    Really powerful stuff.

    Michelle Obama Attacking Trump is like Juncker attacking Vote Leave.
    Except she can actually enthuase voters for her cause unlike Junker who has the opposite effect. Clinton needs her has she is currently only getting about 86% (same as Bills first term incedentally)of the AA vote compared to 95% for Obama.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    nunu said:

    619 said:
    She should have stood herself. She's excellent.
    Her, Bernie, Biden, Elizabeth Warren all would have put Trump away by now, but Clinton is more concerned by gaining power then she is about defeating a far right Trump.
    Well, as Trump has shot himself in the foot/head/pussy that's fair enough.

    Clinton is a machine politician. I guess the best approximation is Nixon. I have a very low opinion on her probity, but am open-minded about her potential as a capable Pres.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    619 said:
    Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Sud off.
    You are just getting in a lather about it now
  • Options

    I just had a chat to Sunil at a Santander Call Centre. V nice chap.. Was it you?
    No, I is based in the UK :)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    JackW said:

    Imagine there were no polls on the debate at all, and look at all the other evidence of the campaign and other polling data. You would have to conclude that there was an event on Sunday that was favourable to Trump.

    What evidence ?!?

    If nothing else: pre debate the Republicans were making frenzied moves to remove him from the ticket, now they're not.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
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    murali_s said:

    619 said:
    Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!
    Bit like how her husbands similar brilliant speech won it for Remain...oh.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Trump - "The highly respected Rasmussen poll .... "

    Laugh .... I nearly choked on my low calorie "meal" .... :smile:
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Be careful, you don't want to get hung out to dry.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    Trump: "The last thing this country needs is four more years of Barack Obama" (!)

    He says he never knew the attacks on him would be so bad, but "Nevertheless, I take all of these slings and arrows gladly for you".

    "Their media resources are unmatched." "The depth of their immorality is absolutely unmatched."

    Are people hearing the dogwhistles? This is NOT going to go down well at the New York Times!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    nielh said:

    I've been following the debate on here for some time.
    I think people have far too much confidence on here that the current government can weather the course they have embarked on.
    There must be a high chance that the current government will fall, when the implications of the Brexit strategy fall in to place. As it is starting to now. Scotland is one issue, Ireland is another, the economic fallout of the fall in value of the pound another. And then there are a whole host of other interrelated issues, issues that have already been considered but will start to become more real over the next few months: what happens to trident if Scotland becomes independent. What happens to the land border in Ireland. and so on.
    These are all questions that we know about already, but they haven't been thought through by anyone to any conclusion, because there is so much uncertainty, and there are so many distractions as events roll out on a daily basis.
    The key developments I would argue is that there is now an organised 'opposition' in parliament. Businesses are spooked. The bizarre movements of the pound. The statements by Nissan, land rover, American banks. Petrol prices have risen 10%.
    In the town where I work every single private sector funded major investment project has been stopped or halted due to Brexit.
    I'm not saying anything new, but all I am saying is look at the volatility. It is completely unprecedented. The decision to go forward with leaving the EU would result in vast political, economic and constitional chaos. I don't believe that the government can weather it. I believe that they will fall, and that the tories will not be able to decide how resolve it when they call a general election, because the Brexitters are already starting to argue amongst themselves.

    And it is anyones guess how it could play out after that.

    I think people are in denial about the true scale of the political, economic and social volatility the UK is currently in. The phoney peace is currently coming to an end, and people are starting to wake up.

    On topic, from a betting point of view, I think the odds that A50 wont be triggered until the second half of next year are very good.

    Nice post.

    My own view is that it's when no one can see a catalyst for change in sight that change occurs.
    Indeed.

    And if the government and/or Parliament overrides the people's democratic decision on EU membership, there will be a major upheaval.
  • Options
    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Sud off.
    You are just getting in a lather about it now
    An early bath for all of you!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    Trump: "I take all of these slings and arrows gladly for you, so that we can have our country back."
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    On the days events....

    Cheers to Bob Dylan..... Poet for our times...

    Massive cheers to Jessica Ennis Hill. A better role model for modern Britain would be very hard to find. She had my vote for Spoty in 12 and 15 and will have it again this year. You were fab Jess!

    And jeers to Tesco. If the anglish poond drops by more than 15%, prices are going to go up. Period. I noticed petrol was up by 2p at my local BP on the way home. This is the cost of taking back control.

    We already knew that every unpopular decision would be blamed on the Leave vote, whether or not it had anything to do with it. A 10% price rise on a product made entirely within the UK has nothing at all to do with it...
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jonathan said:

    Many people feel assaulted by Leave, a predator using deception to achieve its ends.

    The special thing about that joke is the way that you tell it.

    Remind us again how many of the aces the Remain campaign was holding ? PM leading it ? Most of the cabinet on side ? BBC cheerleading ? CBI onside ? TUC onside ? Civil Service onside ? Government funded press releases ? Headstart while leave had to wait for the end of the renegotiation ? Most of the newspapers onside ? Almost every business leader, actors, artists, author and other publically visible person cheerleader ? Obama ? IMF ? OECD ? European Leaders ?

    Leave had Farage and George Galloway.

    Remain lost because the public were concerned about immigration and remain didn't have a credible answer.

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dromedary said:

    Trump: "The last thing this country needs is four more years of Barack Obama."

    He says he never knew the attacks on him would be so bad, but "Nevertheless, I take all of these slings and arrows gladly for you".

    Will he fall into the trap and attack Michelle I wonder?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Imagine there were no polls on the debate at all, and look at all the other evidence of the campaign and other polling data. You would have to conclude that there was an event on Sunday that was favourable to Trump.

    What evidence ?!?

    If nothing else: pre debate the Republicans were making frenzied moves to remove him from the ticket, now they're not.
    So it's down to the body being resuscitated as a triumph.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847

    FPT

    By the way, your premise that the EU has a logical conclusion through dissolution of the nation state is a sad, Brexit myth. It doesn't stand up to reason, or the facts.

    No it is not. When has the EU ever stopped seeking to centralise more and more power to itself, and when has it tolerated any meaningful moves to return competences to member states? The commitment to ever closer union is enshrined in the Treaty of Rome and taken very seriously.

    Besides, it won't let go of the Euro for love nor money, and that alone requires a federal treasury accountable to a federal government to make it work.
    The Comission, like all bureaucracies, will always try to centralise more power. Separately, the nation states have consistently found more things to cooperate on.

    But this is not the same thing as nation states dissolving themselves. Indeed, in the tussle between nation states and the Commission, the former do come out on top.

    I'm certainly not saying EU governance is perfect - far from! - but the idea that it is a one way traffic to supranational serfdom is simply wrong. And very dangerous; it creates a mythical monster against which we are seem willing to sacrifice actual prosperity.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Speedy said:

    There is a change in the format of the 3rd debate, before it would have been about Foreign Policy, now it will include he following:

    https://twitter.com/khinman/status/786303822104788992

    If Trump repeats his second debate performance I will upgrade his chances of winning the election for the first time since he choose Pence as his VP.

    Supreme Court is pretty desperate. Have to say making it multi topic hurts Trump. Foreign policy is a decent topic for Trump.
    Supreme Court (presidents nominations of) is why I think Trump might still just squeak it.
    Whilst it might look like leaning into the culture wars by going big on SCOTUS is a good play for Trump I think it is a double edged sword - making an issue of it will equally motivate unenthused Dems to turn out to stop Trump nominating to SCOTUS
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    murali_s said:

    619 said:
    Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!
    Bit like how her husbands similar brilliant speech won it for Remain...oh.
    Not al all - Barack is also pure class - very different to right-wing, small-minded and bigoted dimwits like yourself!
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    On the days events....

    Cheers to Bob Dylan..... Poet for our times...

    Massive cheers to Jessica Ennis Hill. A better role model for modern Britain would be very hard to find. She had my vote for Spoty in 12 and 15 and will have it again this year. You were fab Jess!

    And jeers to Tesco. If the anglish poond drops by more than 15%, prices are going to go up. Period. I noticed petrol was up by 2p at my local BP on the way home. This is the cost of taking back control.

    We already knew that every unpopular decision would be blamed on the Leave vote, whether or not it had anything to do with it. A 10% price rise on a product made entirely within the UK has nothing at all to do with it...
    That cannot be right.. the brexiters said it would hardly be noticed....
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump has now made it absolutely clear what he's saying: "We are going to have a policy: America First".

    Crowd chants "USA! USA!"
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    BREAKING: Utah
    Trump 34
    Clinton 28
    McMullin 20
    Johnson 9

    Shares my values:
    Trump 24 yes
    Clinton 29 yes

    https://t.co/N35pQ3RpyN

    second poll with mcmullan over 20
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Indigo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Many people feel assaulted by Leave, a predator using deception to achieve its ends.

    The special thing about that joke is the way that you tell it.

    Remind us again how many of the aces the Remain campaign was holding ? PM leading it ? Most of the cabinet on side ? BBC cheerleading ? CBI onside ? TUC onside ? Civil Service onside ? Government funded press releases ? Headstart while leave had to wait for the end of the renegotiation ? Most of the newspapers onside ? Almost every business leader, actors, artists, author and other publically visible person cheerleader ? Obama ? IMF ? OECD ? European Leaders ?

    Leave had Farage and George Galloway.

    Remain lost because the public were concerned about immigration and remain didn't have a credible answer.

    And because the British public had never agreed with the Project. The EU was unsellable.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!''

    Yeah, like when the POTUS was taking selfies with the blonde female Danish PM.

    OMG THE FACE ON HER!!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is getting better with the teleprompter.
    He sounds like a normal delivery, when he first used a teleprompter he was 100% wooden.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    It is the logical conclusion affirmed by the opening passage in the Treaty of Rome. It is no myth.

    You may construe it that way. I do not.
    And looking at the policy of France, Germany, and the U.K. within the EU over the last decade or so - neither do they.
    Happily what you construe is of only incidental interest ;)

    To quote Sir Thomas More

    The world must construe according to its wits; this court must construe according to the law.
    Your Brexiteering Utopia has very little chance of becoming reality. Hopefully you realise this before we 48 percenters are consigned to the Tower!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    619 said:
    Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!
    Bit like how her husbands similar brilliant speech won it for Remain...oh.
    Not al all - Barack is also pure class - very different to right-wing, small-minded and bigoted dimwits like yourself!
    Also different to left-wing, small-minded and bigoted dimwits like you.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    nunu said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump: "The last thing this country needs is four more years of Barack Obama."

    He says he never knew the attacks on him would be so bad, but "Nevertheless, I take all of these slings and arrows gladly for you".

    Will he fall into the trap and attack Michelle I wonder?
    When has he ever attacked a woman for speaking out against him?

    He cant be THAT thin skinned surely...
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I'm certainly not saying EU governance is perfect - far from! - but the idea that it is a one way traffic to supranational serfdom is simply wrong. And very dangerous; it creates a mythical monster against which we are seem willing to sacrifice actual prosperity.

    Can you name one power assumed by the EU which on reflection they decided more correctly lay with the nation states in accordance with the principles of subsidiarity ? No ? Neither can I.

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Utah - Monmouth Uni - Sample 403 - 10-12 Oct

    Clinton 28 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 20

    http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/
  • Options

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    It is the logical conclusion affirmed by the opening passage in the Treaty of Rome. It is no myth.

    You may construe it that way. I do not.
    And looking at the policy of France, Germany, and the U.K. within the EU over the last decade or so - neither do they.
    Happily what you construe is of only incidental interest ;)

    To quote Sir Thomas More

    The world must construe according to its wits; this court must construe according to the law.
    Your Brexiteering Utopia has very little chance of becoming reality. Hopefully you realise this before we 48 percenters are consigned to the Tower!
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    Trump: "This is our moment of reckoning as a society, and as a civilisation. I didn't need to do this. Believe me. (...) I'm doing it because this country has given me so much (...) and I feel so strongly that it's my turn to give back to the country that I love."

    "In my former life, I was an insider (...) Now I'm being punished for leaving the special club and revealing to you the terrible things that are going on."

    "Because I used to be part of the club, I'm the only one who can fix it".

    "The dark clouds hanging over our government can be lifted (...) It all depends on whether we let the corrupt media decide our future (...) or the American people decide our future"
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    619 said:

    BREAKING: Utah
    Trump 34
    Clinton 28
    McMullin 20
    Johnson 9

    Shares my values:
    Trump 24 yes
    Clinton 29 yes

    https://t.co/N35pQ3RpyN

    second poll with mcmullan over 20

    Mostly Pre-tape, completely Pre-debate, useless.
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    rcs1000 said:

    It will be very interesting to see before and after on Unilver pricing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37650234

    And carton sizes....
    Very true. Speaking as a former stock controller in a supermarket distribution centre. The cycle through changing pack sizes was well known. The best time to spot them is just after a special offer finishes.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    619 said:
    Simple but effective. This lady is so classy!
    Bit like how her husbands similar brilliant speech won it for Remain...oh.
    Not al all - Barack is also pure class - very different to right-wing, small-minded and bigoted dimwits like yourself!
    That is why the referendum result turned so decisively for remain after his speech then ?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Trump in full flow. This is what a loser sounds like.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    edited October 2016

    FPT

    By the way, your premise that the EU has a logical conclusion through dissolution of the nation state is a sad, Brexit myth. It doesn't stand up to reason, or the facts.

    No it is not. When has the EU ever stopped seeking to centralise more and more power to itself, and when has it tolerated any meaningful moves to return competences to member states? The commitment to ever closer union is enshrined in the Treaty of Rome and taken very seriously.

    Besides, it won't let go of the Euro for love nor money, and that alone requires a federal treasury accountable to a federal government to make it work.
    The Comission, like all bureaucracies, will always try to centralise more power. Separately, the nation states have consistently found more things to cooperate on.

    But this is not the same thing as nation states dissolving themselves. Indeed, in the tussle between nation states and the Commission, the former do come out on top.

    I'm certainly not saying EU governance is perfect - far from! - but the idea that it is a one way traffic to supranational serfdom is simply wrong. And very dangerous; it creates a mythical monster against which we are seem willing to sacrifice actual prosperity.
    It isn't wrong. It is the basic raison d'etre of the EU. It is written right there in the treaties and is confirmed each time the ECJ makes a decision based on those treaties. It was the openly stated aim of the founders of the EEC and has continued to be the basic direction of travel for the EEC/EU over the last 40 years.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Be careful, you don't want to get hung out to dry.
    Do you expect me to just soak this abuse up??
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    Trump - "The highly respected Rasmussen poll .... "

    Laugh .... I nearly choked on my low calorie "meal" .... :smile:

    It was highly respected when it had Clinton in the lead - and so was the LA Times poll.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    Dominic Cummings doesn't seem like a happy bunny over on Twitter.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Aarrgghh the nasty EU man has a straight banana. Quick, let's trash the economy and make foreigners feel so uncomfortable here, they'll leave.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    FPT

    By the way, your premise that the EU has a logical conclusion through dissolution of the nation state is a sad, Brexit myth. It doesn't stand up to reason, or the facts.

    No it is not. When has the EU ever stopped seeking to centralise more and more power to itself, and when has it tolerated any meaningful moves to return competences to member states? The commitment to ever closer union is enshrined in the Treaty of Rome and taken very seriously.

    Besides, it won't let go of the Euro for love nor money, and that alone requires a federal treasury accountable to a federal government to make it work.
    The Comission, like all bureaucracies, will always try to centralise more power. Separately, the nation states have consistently found more things to cooperate on.

    But this is not the same thing as nation states dissolving themselves. Indeed, in the tussle between nation states and the Commission, the former do come out on top.

    I'm certainly not saying EU governance is perfect - far from! - but the idea that it is a one way traffic to supranational serfdom is simply wrong. And very dangerous; it creates a mythical monster against which we are seem willing to sacrifice actual prosperity.
    1. If the Eurozone fails to federalise then how is the single currency ever to be made to work properly? The vast economic disparities between the member states can only be addressed through the issuance of common debt, by a common government that can raise common taxes, and by outright fiscal transfers - not through a combination of punitive austerity measures and massive loans (which, in the Greek case at least, the supplicant debtors have no realistic chance of ever repaying.)

    2. If the Eurozone federalises then it therefore follows that (a) states within it will cease to exist as sovereign entities, and (b) remaining non-Euro states will probably find themselves as fax democracies a la Norway.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited October 2016

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    nielh said:

    I've been following the debate on here for some time.
    I think people have far too much confidence on here that the current government can weather the course they have embarked on.
    There must be a high chance that the current government will fall, when the implications of the Brexit strategy fall in to place. As it is starting to now. Scotland is one issue, Ireland is another, the economic fallout of the fall in value of the pound another. And then there are a whole host of other interrelated issues, issues that have already been considered but will start to become more real over the next few months: what happens to trident if Scotland becomes independent. What happens to the land border in Ireland. and so on.
    These are all questions that we know about already, but they haven't been thought through by anyone to any conclusion, because there is so much uncertainty, and there are so many distractions as events roll out on a daily basis.
    The key developments I would argue is that there is now an organised 'opposition' in parliament. Businesses are spooked. The bizarre movements of the pound. The statements by Nissan, land rover, American banks. Petrol prices have risen 10%.
    In the town where I work every single private sector funded major investment project has been stopped or halted due to Brexit.
    I'm not saying anything new, but all I am saying is look at the volatility. It is completely unprecedented. The decision to go forward with leaving the EU would result in vast political, economic and constitional chaos. I don't believe that the government can weather it. I believe that they will fall, and that the tories will not be able to decide how resolve it when they call a general election, because the Brexitters are already starting to argue amongst themselves.

    And it is anyones guess how it could play out after that.

    I think people are in denial about the true scale of the political, economic and social volatility the UK is currently in. The phoney peace is currently coming to an end, and people are starting to wake up.

    On topic, from a betting point of view, I think the odds that A50 wont be triggered until the second half of next year are very good.

    Nice post.

    My own view is that it's when no one can see a catalyst for change in sight that change occurs.
    Indeed.

    And if the government and/or Parliament overrides the people's democratic decision on EU membership, there will be a major upheaval.
    Calm down.

    I know there is some daydream with you marching down Whitehall, pikestaff in hand, at the head of a mob of Brexiters, but that won't be required thank you. We're leaving. Really.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Indigo said:

    I'm certainly not saying EU governance is perfect - far from! - but the idea that it is a one way traffic to supranational serfdom is simply wrong. And very dangerous; it creates a mythical monster against which we are seem willing to sacrifice actual prosperity.

    Can you name one power assumed by the EU which on reflection they decided more correctly lay with the nation states in accordance with the principles of subsidiarity ? No ? Neither can I.

    I cannot. But it is hardly likely the EU (Commission) would do so. You might ask the same of Westminster, or even your local parish council.

    It is for the nation states to repatriate powers if they think it advisable. The U.K. has been relatively unsuccessful at pushing this agenda probably because it has preferred and been quite successful at securing the individual opt-out.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Utah - Monmouth Uni - Sample 403 - 10-12 Oct

    Clinton 28 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 20

    http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/

    Really it is post debate ?

    So Trump is not losing in Utah anymore?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    On the days events....

    Cheers to Bob Dylan..... Poet for our times...

    Massive cheers to Jessica Ennis Hill. A better role model for modern Britain would be very hard to find. She had my vote for Spoty in 12 and 15 and will have it again this year. You were fab Jess!

    And jeers to Tesco. If the anglish poond drops by more than 15%, prices are going to go up. Period. I noticed petrol was up by 2p at my local BP on the way home. This is the cost of taking back control.

    We already knew that every unpopular decision would be blamed on the Leave vote, whether or not it had anything to do with it. A 10% price rise on a product made entirely within the UK has nothing at all to do with it...
    That cannot be right.. the brexiters said it would hardly be noticed....
    No, I think they said only people that drank G&T would notice ;)
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:
    Get off your soapbox Jonathan
    Be careful, you don't want to get hung out to dry.
    Do you expect me to just soak this abuse up??
    It's all spin.
This discussion has been closed.