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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election
Assuming the unelected PM doesn’t change her mind, the next general election will be on the same day as the London Mayoral election, Sadiq Khan has a choice to make, will he stand as London Mayor in 2020 or will he stand as an MP in 2020?
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Even if he stands for Labour (even for that, 100/1 is not generous), the Tories win.
Kindly name me a single person who has been elected Prime Minister by the British people.
Furthermore, TM is constrained by the Fixed Term Parliament Act. I'm not convinced overturning that legislation would get a majority on the floor so it's perhaps not the brightest throwaway.
It's a good spoof piece though, I'll give you that.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozborndias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away."
I can perhaps see some London Labour members elect an anti-democrat; but the Electorate?
Are we allowed to hotlink, TSE?
This is better as you get a Homburg too, but not suitable for linking.
http://tinyurl.com/zaso3bt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb4j51Mor20
Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/15/exclusive-breitbartgravis-poll-clinton-up-4-points-over-trump-in-florida/
Colorado - Gravis/Breibart - Sample 1.226 - 12-13 Oct
Clinton 44 .. Trump 39
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/15/exclusive-breitbartgravis-poll-clinton-opens-lead-over-trump-44-39-in-colorado-gains-5-points-in-a-week/
- Galloway to re enter the labour party
- the labour party to select Galloway as candidate in 2020
- Galloway to win
He may reenter the labour party if the NEC gets taken over by the hard left. But the labour party would not select him. The labour party (and the electorate) in London are overwhelmingly pro EU and as I recall, strongly supported owen smith in the most recent leadership campaign. That's if the labour party holds itself together for five more years. He could of course stand as an independent or for respect, and poll 1.4% again.
Galloway to win the mayoral election? Hmmmmm. Not inconceivable, but reliant on a major shift in demographics and popular opinion.
I would back him at 250/1.
There is better value on the market for next conservative leader, I backed david davis yesterday at 100/1, I would say the true odds are closer to 5/1 given his strong position in the cabinet at the moment. And I can't understand why Johnson is still hanging around as favourite given his ridiculous performance as foreign secretary. The guy is a total clown.
Clinton 50 .. Trump 46
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-national-poll-oct-10-13-2016/2102/
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,870 - 15 Oct
Clinton 44.1 .. Trump 44.2
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Re grammar schools on the previous thread - I've taught in all types of school one way or another. I'm actually surprised it's as high as 2.6% poor students. It's the middle classes can afford tutors for the 11+, and in any case outside two counties it's pushy parents who are usually affluent who enter their children for the exam anyway.
There are two necessary corollaries to the return of grammars, one of which we should do anyway:
1) A maximum class size of 20 (15 in inner cities) to maximise teacher input on children (this will also have the huge advantage of reducing teacher workload and making the profession more attractive);
2) A massive expansion of middle schools catering for up to year 8 at least. 11 is too young to know who will or will not be really able later (not necessarily those at the top and bottom, but those in the middle). That would then allow the application of the de facto selection that happens in comprehensives at options time, which under the new and extremely content-heavy GCSE will almost certainly be at the end of year 8 in all schools.
Comprehensive schools are not in and of themselves the problem, and grammar schools alone are not the answer.
.. and Gove would take Boris over Davis any day of the week.
As an aside, can we get rid of this stupid 'year' thing? Just call classes by the rough age of the children within.
(I'm sure you all guessed that would be my answer!)
OR...Boris is shit at the job and won't stand.
Interesting you mention gove, in my view Gove, Davis and Osborne and Hammond are the contenders for the next Tory leader. they have demonstrated the intellectual aptitude and experience for the task
I can't remember what lower sixth was called 'divisions'.
To be quite honest, I have long thought the most serious barrier to improving standards and reducing class sizes is the fact that the DfES and Ofsted both have a vested interest in keeping the system in a state of muddle and confusion. That creates work for them and their favoured client groups in the big academy chains, even if it is disastrous for the children of this country. I am contemplating writing a research paper on that calling for them both to be abolished and their necessary functions - which are actually not that many - to be transferred to local authorities and the major universities. But ironically because of their bungling I have no time to criticise their bungling.
Whilst I think it unlikely, I do agree 100/1 is too long.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, the link near the bottom only goes to the Ladbrokes main page not the market itself.
My point about Boris is that he is at heart a liberal, and (setting Europe to one side) basically a Cameroon. If the right of the party selected Davis or Leadsom, there is no way Gove or the like is going to shoot down Boris and let a right winger in.
I must say that, listening to my teacher grandchildren I am amazed at how corrupt and nepotic (is that a word?) system seems to be developing, at least in the region where they work.
I suspect it will not be long before there are calls for the return of soming like LEA’s.
Not Gove. What he did to teachers in private he has done to Cameron and Johnson in public. The man is a pathological narcissist, backstabber and liar and utterly unfit to hold public office.
Osborne may be worth a shout especially if things go wrong, and I never thought I'd say that.
If May is able to in effect nominate her own successor however, there might well be mileage in Karen Bradley, whom she obviously thinks very highly of and would be about the right age and level of experience to take over in 5-6 years time.
I suppose you should work on the basis that all MPs are ambitious hypocrites. There may be the occasional exception, but they'll never climb the greasy pole anyway.
I think it will take a lot to shift her. It might be different if Boris were a serious contender but he isn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-99Ulwjiq2Q
Good night out was it?
The wish is father to the thought.
AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html
Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
Oh, Priti Patel on Marr for anyone who likes her.
I have always admired the courage and self-sacrifice of our Scottish friends and allies, but I hope Galloway doesn't display indefatigability if you get the chance to hammer him to pieces!
Now, onto the substance: no, and I'm not sure I'd take the bet at 500/1.
To put this into context, this bet is twice as likely as George Osborne being Prime Minister after the next election.
Meanwhile, has the anti-Trump effort at the Telegraph slowed to a halt? They copy-and-paste the AP report that "Donald Trump promises closer links to India if elected" without mentioning Trump's business interests in that country.
The numbers of the membership mean nothing. 10% of the electorate identify as 'left wing'. so the membership can increase to 2 million, makes no difference to anything.
Labour sorting itself out means the unions kicking Corbyn in the balls* and sorting out the joke of party democracy. There is of course a role for more involvement of members but there also has to be strategic leadership and direction.
( *metaphorically)
3/1 at William Hill.
I see AZ has gone pink again on 538.
Isnt that, er racist?
http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637
That's why Brexit either happens now or doesn't happen at all.
Patel struggling with answering questions on brexit. The answer that 'parliament will debate the great repeal bill' is not satisfactory in response to the concerns that are now being raised. They know it. Davis and May know it as well.
FOP is the key .... 1,782 mention ..
Unless they get the numhers to the 1922 commitee in the next week or two, forget it until nov 2017 which is too late and will give her ample time to go to the country with a snap who runs britain election if push comes to shove.