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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Steven Woolf, who was odds on favourite to replace Farage, qui
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Steven Woolf, who was odds on favourite to replace Farage, quits the party
UKIP's Steven Woolfe quits the party, with statement that it is 'ungovernable' without @Nigel_Farage at the helm https://t.co/x5PeXPkEVj
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Looks like it. Guess there has to be a first time for everything
Sorry.
https://culteducation.com/warningsigns.html
Indeed, it's entirely possible that Labour's present woes arise from the same scenario.
(edited to add: good evening, everyone)
But I think she is already invested.
Posted earlier.
http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics
Opportunity AND danger here for the Tories. In part the "detoxification" of the Tories under Cameron was because some toxic elements went to UKIP allowing more liberal votes to go to the Tories. Not everyone who went to UKIP was a "fruitcake, nut or loon" but some were.
If the Tories go running after UKIP votes they may get them but if not careful will open themselves up to losing the more liberal wing of the Party. Not much chance of that happening versus the Tweedledee and Tweedledum of Corbyn and Farron but if another mainstream party ever got their act together then there could be a vacancy.
One stat I would point to though is thus. Look at the calamitous devline in the traditional third party's vote share in 2015. Yes the combined Lab/Con vote share bucked the long term trend of decline slightly but only a tiny bit. The decline of one third party seemed to beget another one not radically reinforce the two party system. As Trump us showing it's very difficult synthesise the elites you need to govern with angry and discussed voters.
Tories have gone from 1-33 to 1-50 in the last few days.
As a comparison Mrs Clinton is 1-6.
Funny how liberals who monster anyone who suggests Trump might still win are now ramping a far more improbable by election win for Libdems.
EDIT: Or the so-called "cockroach" like Lib Dems nationwide for that matter too.
I have been against holding a general election any time soon, but actually I'm now wanting May to just go for it. Use it to be elected with a mahoosive majority and with a manifesto commitment for "medium-boiled" Brexit that will be rammed through Parliament.
It's the getting there that's the difficult bit. Labour down to c.150 seats at the next election could be a trigger for a dozen or two leaving the blues for the yellows.
Not sure if I agree with the tactics, though.
Scenario:
1. Labour is lost to the Hard Left and is progressively marginalised in England. Lib Dems are niche and support too evenly spread under FPTP. Tory hegemony ensues.
2. At some point in future, Tories have major disagreement on policy. Lack of an effective Opposition removes pressure that stops them from splitting. The centrist wing is possibly smaller, but mops up the surviving LD vote.
3. The Liberal - Conservative split is thus re-established, and we go back to something not unlike the late 19th century (but with the SNP - if Scotland hasn't left - and Rump Labour substituting for the Irish Parliamentary party.)
In 2015 Scottish Labour fell from 42% to 25% (a drop of 17%) and fell from 41 seats to just 1. That was a political earthquake.
If they fall from over 30% in the UK in 2015 to just 10% (a drop of 20%) then they would lose almost all their seats. It would be a political earthquake.
Absolutely there would need to be an alternative, but if their vote share falls to 10% then that only happens because an alternative was found. In your example of 45 Tories, 20 LDs, 10 Labour then the LDs have become that alternative and would be second party in seats by quite some margin.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN12G101?il=0
Shame there's not really much that can be done to speed the Commissioners up, but they're independent for a good reason - which is easily seen in the US with their dodgy districts.
Hilary is going for a giant halo effect. Any GOP who vocally supported Trump is in her cross hairs. Any hokey-cokey Trumper is in the Trump base cross hairs.
Farron is an irrelevance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new leader in time for the 2020 general election.
Presumably there would be a Re-enter-Europe-at-any-price party and a Make-the-best-of-what-we-are party.
"If the model is correct the result is correct" is a truism not an argument.
The Earliest I can see is if the Supreme Court rules an Act of Parliament is needed to invoke A50. May tries to rush through a one clause bill then a pro Single Market Commons and Lords passes it but wth multiple Sunrise and Sunset clauses. May abandons it and goes to the country on the first Thursday in May. Or Mayday as the Sun will call it.
I'm well aware how many variables there are in scenario. It's highly speculative. And of course Governments can stage false flag casus beli very easierly. But in a curious way if May wants the option of an early election the Supreme Court mandating an A50 bill may be her best bet.
In the US, there have been big historical shifts in how certain states, and demographics, have voted, but it would be a first for the UK
This is at the heart of the let's realignment dilemma as well. Of course Labour is crippled and no longer for purpose. Ideally we'd move pronto to a Democratic Party for Westminster elections and allow existing parties to compete freely in all other elections. But setting up new political parties s incredibly hard. Incredibly hard. There is a reason the buggers so rarely die. In this sense New Labour and Corbynism are akin. They both recognise taking over an existing structure , however difficult, is less difficult than building from scratch. Ask UKIP or the SDP.
SW: “I was the subject of vicious briefing by forces within Ukip who wanted to expel the legacy of Nigel Farage. - First, they claimed my party membership had lapsed, despite me being an MEP since 2014 and paying all necessary subscriptions. Next, they dragged up a minor drink driving conviction from 2002 as evidence of my unsuitability. Finally, they said I was ineligible because a technical fault with the party’s out of date computer systems had received my paperwork 17 minutes after the deadline.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/17/ukip-is-ungovernable-i-hoped-to-be-leader---instead-today-i-quit/
Not bitter much…
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45
PA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
CO - Clinton 45 .. Trump 37
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388
Where public opinion does matter, of course, is in the response to the actual effects of Brexit (if & when they happen).
It's quite possible that Mrs May's government could make an extremely good job of the exit and yet voters won't like the reality of what they voted for - and dump the Conservatives at the next GE.
I think Ms Cyclefree was spot on when she asked why free trade has to be accompanied by free movement.
It seems to have become a matter of ideological obstinancy rather than some essential aspect of trading goods and services freely.
If the EU had been sensible, Remain would have won the referendum by 75-25.
Those pointing the finger at Britain and Brexiteers for the result are letting the real culprits off the hook. It's a product of EU intransigence, not unreasonable Britons.
LizLis
Beth