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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A bad GE2015 omen for the Green party: It loses council by-election to LAB in Caroline Lucas’s Brighton constituency
One of the most sensational results at GE2010 was the victory by the then Green party leader, Caroline Lucas, in Brighton Pavillion. This was a huge breakthrough for the party and followed years of work on the ground winning council seats and building up an organisation.
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Every pound spent on defeating her is a pound labour isn't spending in the midlands on winning tory marginals.
Would appear a total waste of time and effort.
The consensus seems to be that politicians are boring, indistinguishable from each other, too much private school PPE, too afraid to have opinions of their own for fear of scaring the horses...
All this may be true but on the (admittedly flimsy) evidence of listening to both the spectator and new statesman podcasts, it may well also be that the media framing the political landscape are just as partisan, closed-minded, boring and posh as the politicians. How can politicans hope to be interesting when no-one has the brains to ask intelligent questions, or posit alternative ideas?
If they can beat Labour to the cheezed-off LibDems they might have a chance in Norwich South, too, factoring in the loss of Charles Clarke's incumbency.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwich_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In a more representative voting system it'd make sense to nurture coalition partners, here it makes sense to smother them at birth. (See Tory / UKIP)
The brightest boys from poor homes in England and Scotland are at least two and a half years behind in reading compared with those from the richest homes, a study suggests.
Research for the Sutton Trust educational charity says Scotland's gap is the highest in the developed world, while England's is the second highest.
In Finland, Denmark, Germany and Canada, the gap is equal to 15 months.......
The study was carried out by John Jerrim at the Institute of Education, University of London, who analysed scores for 15-year-olds in Pisa tests carried out for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
He says the reading skills of England's youngsters as a whole are heavily linked to their socio-economic background, but that this gap is average for countries in the OECD.
However, he suggests when you look just at high achievers - the brightest in each socio-economic group - England and Scotland perform worse than other countries for boys and are "close to the bottom" for girls, out of the 32 nations included in the tests.
However, he warns there is some "uncertainty" around the rankings, because of variations in numbers of pupils taking part in the various countries and in sampling methods.
In England, he says, the gap is equivalent to 30 months (two years and six months) of schooling for boys, while in Scotland the gap amounts to nearly three years (two years, 11 months).
Among the brightest girls, the gap in England is two years and four months.
The Sutton Trust is calling for better support for highly able children in state-funded schools in England.
The charity's chairman Sir Peter Lampl said: "By not stretching our most able students from all backgrounds, we are not only failing them, we are reducing our ability to compete globally.
"Moreover, such under-achievement perpetuates those inequalities which make it so hard for bright children to move up in society.
"That's why it is so important that there is a targeted scheme that ensures that those with high potential from low and middle income backgrounds are identified and helped to thrive," he added.
England's schools' watchdog, Ofsted, says its inspectors are to put more weight on how much progress is made by poorer children in schools.
Its head, Sir Michael Wilshaw, recently said "invisible" poor children were being let down by schools in leafy suburbs and coastal towns, while schools in many cities were closing the achievement gap.
A culture of low expectations meant bright pupils were not being stretched in some schools, he said.
The government in England is giving schools more funding for each pupil from a low-income home - about £600 per pupil now, rising to £900 in September. This is known as the Pupil Premium.
A spokeswoman for the Department for Education said the Sutton Trust report showed "the appalling attainment gap" that had been "a feature of our education system for far too long" and that government reforms would improve standards.
"The new phonics check helps teachers identify children who are struggling with reading at an earlier stage and we are targeting more funding at disadvantaged children through the Pupil Premium," she added.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23271555
It is going to take a long time to redress Labour's education legacy of low pupil aspiration which resulted in the above state of affairs.
Actually, literacy rates have substantially improved over the last 20 years.
This story is not about children struggling to read, it's about high achievers. The issue is much more likely to be about access to books and encouragement to read away from school. And that has been so for many a long year.
"And finally a good schools policy recommendation
Ban packed lunches, head teachers urged
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23270715
Simple, but with huge benefits.
And those parents who go on about "my little Cressida won't eat rice" -send social services round, or better, clamp their cars parked on the double yellow lines and fine them huge amounts - it's the same people.
Always.
And they waddle.
So they have to park close to the entrance.
Which is why they waddle."
Made me LOL! I'd just add crushing their 4x4's into art works.........
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-17368311 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/7691919/Fifth-of-school-leavers-illiterate-and-innumerate.html
A friend of mine has a child with (genuine) food intolerances (*), which her school refuses to deal with meaning she cannot eat anything produced at the school. Fortunately they are good parents and they provide excellent packed lunches and even (shock, horror) walk the kids to school.
It would be interesting to see how schools cope with the kids who do have genuine intolerances.
So it is not just about picky children or parents.
(*) From memory, nuts, mushrooms and milk.
Actually, there have been significant steps forward at primary level:
http://www.poverty.org.uk/25/index.shtml
"It would be interesting to see how schools cope with the kids who do have genuine intolerances.
So it is not just about picky children or parents."
My prep school didn't accept food intolerances. They just left it in front of you until you became tolerant
It's good that school meals seem to have improved markedly over the last few years.
And nuts are not necessarily absent from school foods, especially in trace amounts. As an example: http://www2.eastriding.gov.uk/learning/schools-colleges-and-academies/school-meals/allergies-intolerances-and-special-diets/
And finally a good schools policy recommendation
Ban packed lunches, head teachers urged
Ah yes. Now it comes out.
tim knows best how people should choose to live their lives.
The Mighty State is Lord and Master of us all.
Oh.......
A school, refusing to cater for nut allergies sounds like an urban myth to me.
I suspect that mushrooms are the issue - they are the pretty standard veggie alternative.
But why, in principle, should a kid be forced to eat what the school tells them to rather than their parent?
Whilst local by-elections may give a flavour of the political scene within a constituency they are far from reliably indicative of GE results two years down the line.
Lucas will likely get a first term incumbency bounce, plenty of lead up publicity to the GE and also will be one of the few faces of the Greens with plenty of media spotlight during the campaign itself. She also has the advantage of facing a Labour candidate as her main rival.
So .... move along the (environmentally friendly) bus please.
I know these people Tim, and it is genuine. I bake for them occasionally, and am very careful about what goes into the food and the cleanliness of the utensils / chopping boards before I cook. I have also seen the child suffering the effects of eating mushrooms. They are also about as far away from your description as it is possible to get.
And if you drill down from the headline, you see that it is schools are increasingly becoming nut-free zones. But note that seemingly does not include nut traces.
(*) I was allergic / intolerant to E102 Tartrazine as a kid / teenager. This was a bit of a bugger as it was in many common products such as ice cream. Fortunately it is rare to find it now, but it has a minor effect if I eat it still, mainly when abroad.
It was not nice, but fortunately nowhere near life-threatening.
A school, refusing to cater for nut allergies sounds like an urban myth to me.
And mushrooms as well?
A bit of humility on the part of schools is called for, and if they are sincere in their conversion on the subject, they need to prove it. And advertise that for themselves.
It's not an easy area to work in because food allergies don't appear to be IgE modulated and the reactions are so severe that there are no second chances.
But why, in principle, should a kid be forced to eat what the school tells them to rather than their parent?
If the kids eat rubbish in their packed lunch, and most do, it will affect their ability to concentrate and their general behaviour. This will have a knock on effect across the rest of their class.
You lucky, lucky people.
http://www.warwickshire.gov.uk/schoolmeals
Con 32% nc
Lab 40% +3
LD 10% - 1
UKIP 13 +1
Funny - this wasn't Tweeted early by the Sun
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200465/Education-Secretary-Gove-accused-conflict-school-meals-party-accepts-50-000-Dominos-Pizza.html
Why is it "not fair"?
In such cases of multiple allergies, I think it's fairly sensible to come to an arrangement. And the arrangement should be based on a management plan from the GP. If the school cannot meet the management plan, then other arrangements are vital.
Genuine allergies / intolerances are nasty and in extremis can be life threatening. It's sad to see people taking them so lightly.
BTW rumours continue to circulate that in your heyday you were a "page seven fella" in the "Sun" with only a betting slip covering your dignity and with the headline "Winning Here".
What guarantee us there that kids will eat the food provided by the school? Do you think kids should be compulsorily fed to make sure there is less chance of them being disruptive?
In cross the defence counsel pointed out that all of the expert's experiments had been on rats, not humans. The expert accepted this but maintained that the neck structures in humans and rats were very similar "except that the rat does not have a voice box".
At this point the Judge intervened and asked: "Is this why rats can't talk?"
There was a lengthy pause and the expert replied "Yes my Lord, that is one of the reasons."
Royal mail one day, motor trade the next - surely can't be long before Cheshire farming gets the treatment ?!?
Damn it all. Just look at the photo of her in the header - I close my case.
Are parents:
a) essentially decent, trying to do best for their children and this unacceptable Statism; or
b) feckless idiots, irresponsible and in need of guidance to avoid offspring ruin and delinquency?
Same applies to voting.
As a small state Tory I go with a) because I trust people.
I hope Gove agrees with me.
Surely the problem with many obese kids is not that they are not eating nutritionally but they are scoffing far too much nutrition and accordingly children are going through puberty several years earlier than a few decades ago.
The problem with our state schools lies with poor discipline, lack of rigour and the devaluation of teaching as a profession and most certainly not the odd chocolate hob-nob fuelled child.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Scotland. Do you already have the prohibition on exhibiting cigarette packets or advertising them in stores? Caused a lot of inconvenience up here.
My kids take a packed lunch, as is the common practice at their school. But a cheese and ham sandwich with a banana and a fruit juice is good for them. Banning this would be insane.
If some parents pack their little dears off with a packet of crisps, a Mars Bar and a can of Irn Bru - well that ain't so good.
But it is NOT the job of the state to seek to replace parental responsibility. Sure schools can offer hot lunches and I fully support these being subsidised for the poor. But to ban packed lunches?
FOAD!
One of the early rumblings at the beginning of the campaign for this Brighton by-election was that the Labour woman wasn't a trade union member because she feared her employing company wouldn't like it.
"BTW .... the next 2015 GE ARSE projection will be published exclusively on PB on Monday.
You lucky, lucky people."
During the US elections the projections from your ARSE were the product of analysis research and inside knowledge. The most eagerly awaited and ultimately the most accurate of the whole election.
Now your ARSE has been reduced to wish fulfillment the frisson that used to accompany its release is hardly a ripple.
The once mighty ARSE is now 'full of sound and fury signifying nothing'
WIND!
Baffled to hear of the plan to ban packed lunches. I always had them when I was at school (I was, and to an extent still am, a fussy eater).
You may be assured that the mighty ARSE is enjoying the same rigour, vitality and impartiality that it has ever done and indeed is almost certainly an improvement on it's US counterpart from last year - WOW !!
That the present projection is a disappointment for you clearly saddens me as I feel that you as PB's greatest anti-tipster deserves a little sunshine in your present poor situation. Fear not though I think it's likely that Labour will not fall into Michael Foot territory - Now that's cheered you up surely !!
Also I am sure that with efficient catering and buying, a nutritious school dinner can be made for less then £2.50. Many families have less than that to spend (per person) on their main meals.
"Banning nutella is sensible."
......and put a poor struggling director out of business!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuSYKXQvrZo
One mother refused to co-operate, on the grounds that not giving her child peanut butter sandwiches was an interference with his human rights.
Can't remember how it was resolved.
Reasonable encouragement and focussed education are fine. However I fear that we continue to move to an almost enforced nanny state on issues that should remain the domain of parents and heads and not what appears the ever burgeoning army of over bearing interference officials whose very existence requires more coercion and less freedom of the individual.
If I remember correctly. that orange juice (supplied free by HMG) tasted foul and there was no way that my mother was going to get it past my lips.
Of course that was a time when rationing was still around or had just finished and things like oranges were hard to come by and we only got tangerines at Christmas - one of which formed the base of my Christmas stocking. Also a small glass of orange juice was considered a starter course at a restaurant.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23283079
I feel great sympathy for the secular rebels. But given so many of those fighting Assad are Sharia-loving lunatics arming the rebels seems very unwise.
So far as human rights are concerned I would like to say I must have missed that article of the Convention but given the attitudes of the current judges I would not like to be totally confident that they would share that view!
I too have wondered that. As a child the only nuts available were: brazil nuts, walnuts, almonds and hazel (cob) nuts. There were mainly available at Christmas and most families had a set of nutcrackers as shelled nuts were a rarity.
However (and you are far younger than me) things like salted nuts were not available. Has anything been added to the shelled nut to preserve it (other than salt) and so help create this allergy or are nuts being blamed for another, but not yet known, cause?
It was a race against time to eat them before they went green and furry - I think I almost managed it.
"I feel great sympathy for the secular rebels. But given so many of those fighting Assad are Sharia-loving lunatics arming the rebels seems very unwise."
I always think that if these Arab governments under threat or the rebels and their backers used their brains they would spend a fraction of what they spend on arms on a good PR company (with a large budget).
They have no concept of how the right stories in the right media can mobilize public opinion which can then mobilize government action in almost all significant Western countries.
One theory I have heard from a forensic patholoigst is that a lot of the chemicals that are present in our modern world (from traces of sprays in fruit and veg to coatings on a lot of electronic equipment) can cause physiological changes in the womb before the placenta thickens adequately to give protection. This cause minor genetic variations which result in the allergies. Not sure how deeply that is based on research. He believed that it was also causing a drop in fertility amongst men as well.
This week, in my local Co-op, I noticed that the front covers of "Nuts" and "Zoo" (but not FHM)were similarly covered up now.
http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-12/why-are-so-many-kids-allergic-peanuts
An interesting study: peanut allergies are more common in richer households:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/13/peanut-allergies-wealthy-kids_n_2121200.html
Perhaps we should be slightly less keen on killing 99.9% of all known germs and let our kids eat dirt occasionally?
I remember someone commenting recently on the modern tendency to treat children as adults and adults as children.
I've never met any adult who's said "Cigarettes dangerous? Why hasn't anyone ever warned me?" And the dangers of excess alcohol are well known too but adults often choose to undertake risky actions. Banning never works well, the Americans eliminated alcohol under the Volstead Act in the 1920s, didn't they? And our drug problem has almost disappeared, hasn't it?
Conversely, "in loco parentis" seems a lot weaker. Can anyone explain why children in care are allowed to come and go almost when they like?
Banning pack-ups was tried in Doncaster recently. Do you recall the sight of mothers feeding their kids junk food through the school railings?
Children are vulnerable, adults with "mental health issues" may be, but the Government should stick to advice only for adults unless the habit adversely affects others to an unacceptable degree.
You could have Marcus Wareing doing 9 course degustation menus in our schools and it would make bugger all difference.
The hard facts remains the curriculum's rubbish, the LEAs have no ambition, the kids are never stretched and everyone's happy with second best. And then throw in the politicisation of schooling so that no-one can make any sensible changes or establish a new consensus.
This craze for zapping everything with disinfectant has become a hazard in itself AFAIC. I've a pretty rock solid constitution - and can't help feeling it was down to my mother's relaxed attitude to such things.
Beware the Vegan Police!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viUon8EY0Rs
"Compulsory school dinners brings the price down as the fixed costs are spread among double the number of people.
What do you put in a 70p lunch?"
When you are buying for four in bulk you can save money by for example cooking a whole chicken an which costs around £3 and it will last for 3 days dinners . You can buy 500 hrams of mild cheddar grated for £2.15 . If you know how to shop it is quite rasy to make nutricious lunches on a small budget