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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Ipsos Mori polling sees the Tories with an 18 (eighteen) point lead

New @IpsosMORI VI poll Con 47% (+7) Lab 29% (-5) LD7% (+1) UKIP 6% (-3) The Tory lead in emojis. 1 emoji = 1% Con lead. ??????????????????

Read the full story here

JackW

Titter ..

RobD

Second, like a good scottish tory!

RobD

@tyson is going to hate that tweet

JackW

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Paul_Bedfordshire

LDs have overtaken the Kippers to claim third spot.

Seems to represent the Prodigal kippers returning to mother Theresa's Conservatives.

JackW

National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 1,639 - 16-18 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

Black_Rook

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

JackW

Georgia - Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies - Sample 627 - 15-18 Oct

Clinton 43 .. Trump 46

http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-shows-many-georgians-unphased-by-trumps-lewd-audio/

rottenborough

JackW said:

National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 1,639 - 16-18 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

Trump, sub 38% - a landslide awaits.

rottenborough

How long before Tories hit 50%?

rottenborough

What's the view on this national poll?

http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-october-19-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump/

51-36 to Clinton!!!!

FrancisUrquhart

5...4...3....2...1.....tiny straw grasping incoming...

Corbynism 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...

SimonStClare

47% – 29%. Time to reintroduce the smiling May pictures – or maybe not…

I called it a Witney hold last month, see no reason to change that.

Black_Rook

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

LDs have overtaken the Kippers to claim third spot.

Seems to represent the Prodigal kippers returning to mother Theresa's Conservatives.

Only if you take the Gospel according to Ipsos for granted. Data from less wobbly pollsters is needed for corroboration.

JackW

Wisconsin - Monmouth - Sample 413 - 15-18 Oct

Clinton 47 .. Trump 40

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_101916/

MarkSenior

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

Black_Rook

rottenborough said:

How long before Tories hit 50%?

More likely one of the other companies will record Labour below 25% first.

HurstLlama

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

LDs have overtaken the Kippers to claim third spot.

Seems to represent the Prodigal kippers returning to mother Theresa's Conservatives.

I would think so. I said on here months ago that having won the referendum UKIP should disband, as their job was done. Perhaps the voters are now making that decision for them.

Not sure that is a consolation for the Lib Dems, mind you. I mean to say 7%? The polls might be off but if they are 20% off what is the point of them.

The person I feel sorry for on this site is TSE - he has worked so hard at promoting his anti-TM view whilst still maintaining he is a Conservative. His reward - an 18% Conservative lead over Labour.

All of that if you believe the polls, which I am not sure I do.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

Aren't they weighted for a reason?

MonikerDiCanio

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

Big_G_NorthWales

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

...thereby shooting themselves in the face.

Gardenwalker

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

Big_G_NorthWales

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

...thereby shooting themselves in the face.

Remoaner maybe

rottenborough

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

" “We’ve never seen numbers like these before,” Amandi said. "Ever, ever, ever, ever.” "

Tee hee. Landslide coming!!!!

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

david_herdson

The notion that 'it's the economy, stupid' is often misunderstood. It's not that governments necessarily lose when things go badly; it's that governments lose when they're perceived to have lost control AND the opposition is seen as a competent alternative.

Not that it is always the economy, stupid. In bad times, it always is (unless things have become so bad that despair and anger have become unmanageable), but in periods of relative prosperity, other issues can become significantly more salient.

rottenborough

May must be the only person in No.10 tonight not arguing for a snap election. Or at very least spring 2017.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

MarkSenior

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

rcs1000

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

brokenwheel

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA

No it isn't.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter

A Manchester United fan. So not a proper follower of football.

Paul_Bedfordshire

rottenborough said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

" “We’ve never seen numbers like these before,” Amandi said. "Ever, ever, ever, ever.” "

Tee hee. Landslide coming!!!!

Figures like that in some localities yet national polls putting the two of them a few points apart.

That means some areas equally landslidey towards Trump.

Whoever wins the aftermath will make Brexit look like a vicarage tea party. There are now two rival demos' there who despise each other.

MonikerDiCanio

rottenborough said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Miami Dade - WRLN/Univision - Sample 600 - 15-17 Oct

Clinton 58 .. Trump 28

Note - Obama won by 24 points in 12.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301724-poll-clinton-up-30-on-trump-in-floridas-biggest-county

Swamplands. . Drain Dade Donald.

" “We’ve never seen numbers like these before,” Amandi said. "Ever, ever, ever, ever.” "

Tee hee. Landslide coming!!!!

I hear Hillary will be wearing orange for tonight's debate.

Moses_

Point of order mode on...

Can all those Remainers that keep referring to the statements "the English voted us out, the English have destructed our economy the English this and the English that ( insert winge of the day) please note. The Welsh also voted out.

For reference to this far from unique phenomena please see Meeks thread header this morning closely followed by comments from the usual suspects. It's a good troll (granted) and a great smear but it makes the rest of what you wish to convey bollox if you can't even get the basics right.

That's is all

Point of order mode off.....

rcs1000

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

TheWhiteRabbit

brokenwheel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA

No it isn't.

Ode to Joy, also the anthem of the European Union. Whether or not that's why they were playing it.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

Not if the polls stay they way they are.

Sean_F

david_herdson said:

The notion that 'it's the economy, stupid' is often misunderstood. It's not that governments necessarily lose when things go badly; it's that governments lose when they're perceived to have lost control AND the opposition is seen as a competent alternative.

Not that it is always the economy, stupid. In bad times, it always is (unless things have become so bad that despair and anger have become unmanageable), but in periods of relative prosperity, other issues can become significantly more salient.

WRT the economy, I'm sure you can remember, as well as I can, a time when a government would have given its right arm to combine 1% inflation, with 5% unemployment and a 75% employment rate, indeed would have laughed at you, had you suggested such a thing was possible.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter

A Manchester United fan. So not a proper follower of football.

I can claim to have followed Scottish and English Football for over 60 years and can remember as if yesterday my Grandmother telling me as I came home from school in Feb 1958 my team had been killed in Munich and Matt Busby was in an oxygen tent.

and Barcelona have scored

theakes

Witney: its going to be quite close. might be a recount

Ishmael_X

brokenwheel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA

No it isn't.

The internet agrees with you.

"The UEFA Champions League© anthem, which cannot be bought, was written by British composer Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music. Commissioned in 1992 to devise a piece in the style of George Frideric Handel, the iconic recording of Britten's piece is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields Chorus. "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf9LUNB-JsM

rcs1000

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

I must admit that I am turning incrementally more negative on the UK economy, for three reasons:

1. The BOE credit report last week highlighted business investment was falling, while consumer credit was increasing. That's not a very healthy position for an already off-balance economy.

2. The companies I see in my day-to-day job are all deferring UK investment decisions right now. Not cancelling, but waiting until they have better clarity before committing to expenditure or expansion in the UK.

3. There was a very minor negative canary in the coal mine yesterday. Hays, which is a relatively small staffer relative to Adecco or Randstad, reported dramatically worse UK numbers for 3Q than expected (-12% vs -7%). Changes in temporary staffing demand are, in my experience, the best early warning sign for changes in economic weather.

If gross capital formation (i.e. investment) drops from 17% to 15% of GDP next year, we'll need to see a big improvement in our current account to stop the UK economy from slowing sharply, and maybe entering recession.

Sean_F

rottenborough said:

What's the view on this national poll?

http://www.prri.org/research/prri-brookings-october-19-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump/

51-36 to Clinton!!!!

There is some fair news for Trump today. IBD have him 1% ahead, Rasmussen and LA Times tied, and Yougov and Ipsos 4% behind.

But, generally, Clinton is comfortably ahead.

Big_G_NorthWales

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

JackW

National - Quinnipiac - Sample 1007 - 17-18 Oct

Clinton 50 .. Trump 44

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2390

brokenwheel

TheWhiteRabbit said:

brokenwheel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA

No it isn't.

Ode to Joy, also the anthem of the European Union. Whether or not that's why they were playing it.

Yes, but it's not the anthem of UEFA. Though I can see why someone might get confused by the start of it.

ThreeQuidder

Wow, a vidiprinter headline.

Sean_F

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

General elections are Con v Lab. Not Con v Lib Dem.

rcs1000

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

But when not watching live...

Paul_Bedfordshire

theakes said:

Witney: its going to be quite close. might be a recount

And trump will win by a 70-30 landslide

rpjs

Moses_ said:

Point of order mode on...

Can all those Remainers that keep referring to the statements "the English voted us out, the English have destructed our economy the English this and the English that ( insert winge of the day) please note. The Welsh also voted out.

For reference to this far from unique phenomena please see Meeks thread header this morning closely followed by comments from the usual suspects. It's a good troll (granted) and a great smear but it makes the rest of what you wish to convey bollox if you can't even get the basics right.

That's is all

Point of order mode off.....

Technically Wales is a Principality within the Kingdom of England.

But don't try telling anyone that in a Merthyr pub of a Saturday night.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

To be fair, it is also the anthem of the EU.

And the Council of Europe too, come to think of it.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

Casino_Royale

theakes said:

Witney: its going to be quite close. might be a recount

24 hours early for the ramping, mate.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Sean_F said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

General elections are Con v Lab. Not Con v Lib Dem.

Indeed. Libdems need to be going after Labour in places like Mitcham and Morden, Luton South, Milton Keynes and Corby.

Even if they won witney now they would lose it at the next election unless the tories go all 1997 which is unlikely while Corbyn and co rule the roost.

YellowSubmarine

A very fair assessment of the numbers from TSE. I hate to admit it but in the short term May's UKIP tribute act is working. It's absorbing the UKIP vote ( locally some more 'Kippers have jumped ship ) and centre/centre right Remainers or soft Brexiters have nowhere else to go. Labour and the Lib Dems are radioactive slag heaps. I never thought we'd see the Tories poll 47% again in my life time but I don't doubt Mori's figures for a moment. Some Tories must now hope this is rather like a post colonial situation where the party of independence then governs on brand alone for decades. I think the situation is far more complex than that but we should at least analyse the case.

Big_G_NorthWales

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

But when not watching live...

Sky sports app

ThreeQuidder

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hear the booing and cat calls at the Nou Camp just now during the EU anthem. The EU project is going to fail as the 'little people' rise up across Europe

Do you even follow football?

1) Ode to joy is the anthem of UEFA, which is nothing to do with the EU

2) Citeh have a long standing history of booing UEFA because of some frankly bizarre decisions by UEFA, the best one being charging Citeh for racially abusing the the footballer 'Hulk' because their fans chanted ' You're not incredible anymore'

I have followed football since 1953 being a Man Utd supporter through Munich to date and when moving to North Wales became a season ticket holder. As a child I attended every home game at Berwick Rangers and then on moving to Edinburgh in 1960 became a season ticket holder at Hibernian.

I think I may have a claim to have followed football

Are you using the CrowdScores app to get scores?

If not, why not?

No just watching it live

But when not watching live...

Is CrowdScores still football only?

PlatoSaid

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Monksfield

The Tories clearly are cruising at the moment, but it's a very soft vote, and predicated massively on the failings of Corbyn.

If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.

Big_G_NorthWales

YellowSubmarine said:

A very fair assessment of the numbers from TSE. I hate to admit it but in the short term May's UKIP tribute act is working. It's absorbing the UKIP vote ( locally some more 'Kippers have jumped ship ) and centre/centre right Remainers or soft Brexiters have nowhere else to go. Labour and the Lib Dems are radioactive slag heaps. I never thought we'd see the Tories poll 47% again in my life time but I don't doubt Mori's figures for a moment. Some Tories must now hope this is rather like a post colonial situation where the party of independence then governs on brand alone for decades. I think the situation is far more complex than that but we should at least analyse the case.

Believe large numbers of women are backing TM

Monksfield

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I think in any snap election the LibDem vote will revive significantly in the south and especially southern Remainia. We'll get a feel tomorrow night.

Casino_Royale

YellowSubmarine said:

A very fair assessment of the numbers from TSE. I hate to admit it but in the short term May's UKIP tribute act is working. It's absorbing the UKIP vote ( locally some more 'Kippers have jumped ship ) and centre/centre right Remainers or soft Brexiters have nowhere else to go. Labour and the Lib Dems are radioactive slag heaps. I never thought we'd see the Tories poll 47% again in my life time but I don't doubt Mori's figures for a moment. Some Tories must now hope this is rather like a post colonial situation where the party of independence then governs on brand alone for decades. I think the situation is far more complex than that but we should at least analyse the case.

Much as I want to believe it, Tory support feels like a mile-wide and an inch-deep to me.

Part of me wonders if the reason May is doing so little is because she is trying to build up a coalition and is saving herself for a General Election before she has to make any real decisions.

The best way for her to show she's not Gordon Brown, and expunge any myths about Cameron's electoral prowess at the same time, would be to call one, and win it handsomely.

But, she's also cautious, slow to make her mind up and has, so far, mismanaged her PR on more than occassion.

So, will she do it?

I just don't know. But I can guarantee she'll be a much more divisive figure by GE2020 if she doesn't.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

Casino_Royale

Monksfield said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I think in any snap election the LibDem vote will revive significantly in the south and especially southern Remainia. We'll get a feel tomorrow night.

I think it will for *the politically engaged* - i.e. members and activists.

I'm yet to be convinced it will for the ordinary voter. I think most will wait to see how it pans out.

chestnut

Regarding the jobs market:

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/712df67c73a748dcb6091d2468d5b60a

Today's LM Bulletin from ONS also has job vacancies virtually unchanged alongside a claimant count that isn't moving.

If you're looking for an upcoming recession, look across the Irish Sea. There do seem to be a number of very tetchy commentaries coming from there presently.

Alistair

Come on 25/1 shot

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/788818251476180992

Gardenwalker

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

Paul_Bedfordshire

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

I must admit that I am turning incrementally more negative on the UK economy, for three reasons:

1. The BOE credit report last week highlighted business investment was falling, while consumer credit was increasing. That's not a very healthy position for an already off-balance economy.

2. The companies I see in my day-to-day job are all deferring UK investment decisions right now. Not cancelling, but waiting until they have better clarity before committing to expenditure or expansion in the UK.

3. There was a very minor negative canary in the coal mine yesterday. Hays, which is a relatively small staffer relative to Adecco or Randstad, reported dramatically worse UK numbers for 3Q than expected (-12% vs -7%). Changes in temporary staffing demand are, in my experience, the best early warning sign for changes in economic weather.

If gross capital formation (i.e. investment) drops from 17% to 15% of GDP next year, we'll need to see a big improvement in our current account to stop the UK economy from slowing sharply, and maybe entering recession.

Im not too bothered about a recession causing mass unemployment - this has effectively been abolished by Browns tax credits (ie people with kids working 16h a week and getting topped up to near a full time wage by tax credits so 2.5 people share one full time job).

A sharp asset fall (from current very historically high levels) has to be a distinct possibility - starting with London and SE property.

The rise in interest rates and shares caused by currency devaluation will exacerbate this as it will suck money into such liquid assets and away from more illiquid assets such as property and fine art etc.

Something that was inevitable at some point but the trigger has been the brexit referendum and any repeat of the early 90s would be seized on with glee by remainers.

Stark_Dawning

Gentleman John's approval rating is interesting. I can remember reading umpteen 'End of Politics' comments around that time too. John and the Tories only had about six weeks left to live.

ThreeQuidder

Gardenwalker said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

The amount of resources that the LDs have poured into this by election is, to put it mildly, rather difficult to replicate in a general election.

frpenkridge

Amazing poll numbers. It's almost as if the population of the UK are not reading pbc all day, every day.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Whats Speedy got banned for?

nunu

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

Gardenwalker

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

I must admit that I am turning incrementally more negative on the UK economy, for three reasons:

1. The BOE credit report last week highlighted business investment was falling, while consumer credit was increasing. That's not a very healthy position for an already off-balance economy.

2. The companies I see in my day-to-day job are all deferring UK investment decisions right now. Not cancelling, but waiting until they have better clarity before committing to expenditure or expansion in the UK.

3. There was a very minor negative canary in the coal mine yesterday. Hays, which is a relatively small staffer relative to Adecco or Randstad, reported dramatically worse UK numbers for 3Q than expected (-12% vs -7%). Changes in temporary staffing demand are, in my experience, the best early warning sign for changes in economic weather.

If gross capital formation (i.e. investment) drops from 17% to 15% of GDP next year, we'll need to see a big improvement in our current account to stop the UK economy from slowing sharply, and maybe entering recession.

All of this is entirely in line with predictions for a post-Brexit vote slow down. Of *course* investment decisions are deferred and we will see that in the gross capital formation figures in due course.

Nor will the fall in pound help, overly.
Our current account deficit is too structural for that.

I wouldn't be brave enough to call a recession (and I'm not an economist), but a period of stagnation is surely baked in.

Another reason for May to call an early election!

YellowSubmarine

On topic: Good that the numbers of folk think Brexit will reduce their standard of living is up sharply since May. Firstly because they are correct and thus can plan accordingly. Secondly it good they realise that before Brexit is irreversible. It will at least increase proper scrutiny of the project. The finding makes grim reading for s europhiles though. It shows how toxic a brand the EU is and how poorly we made our case. The " the EU makes trade freer and free trade makes everyone richer " argument was the strongest, most evidence based and arguably the most compelling of the lot. Yet it doesn't appeared to have reached huge numbers. Thanks is creeping normalcy. Folk don't understand how exceptional post war peace and prosperity is because it's all they've known. However that's europhiles fault. Voters are never wrong in politics even when they factually are.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

Yeah, but he was labour!

IanB2

Monksfield said:

The Tories clearly are cruising at the moment, but it's a very soft vote, and predicated massively on the failings of Corbyn.

If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.

I can't believe their vote would go down that much more.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

Yeah, but he was labour!

And I'm a Tory. You can be biased against your own position too!

FrancisUrquhart

Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko has been promoted, despite allegations of state-sponsored doping during his time in office.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37705310

Paul_Bedfordshire

nunu said:

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

No, someone else with different political views would be making such videos and having millions watch. And therein lies a hint of the poison in the US whoever wins.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

Note the Ipsos raw data figures before weighting and other fiddlings about were

Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5

One of the most interesting things with the polls in the last six months is that they've consistently found fewer people who claimed to have voted UKIP in 2015 than actually voted UKIP, and they've consistently found more than claim to have voted LibDem than actually did.

This is the opposite of the pre-2015 period, when polls consistently found too few people who said they voted LD in 2010 and too many who said they voted UKIP.

Essentially, in the run up to 2015, the LDs were being consistently weighted up in the polls (which is one of the reasons I was so negative on them), and now they are being weighted down (which is one of the reasons I am among the most positive on the board about their prospects.)

You won me a lot of dough in 2015.

Except on Cambridge ;-)

I was at university with one of the labour councillors in Cambridge. And he was convinced that Huppert would walk it.

Never base your predictions on one enthusiastic individual.

I thought Bristol West would be solid for the LDs, and couldn't believe (and still can't) how well the Greens did.

The LibDem MP there wasn't up to that much.

Gardenwalker

YellowSubmarine said:

On topic: Good that the numbers of folk think Brexit will reduce their standard of living is up sharply since May. Firstly because they are correct and thus can plan accordingly. Secondly it good they realise that before Brexit is irreversible. It will at least increase proper scrutiny of the project. The finding makes grim reading for s europhiles though. It shows how toxic a brand the EU is and how poorly we made our case. The " the EU makes trade freer and free trade makes everyone richer " argument was the strongest, most evidence based and arguably the most compelling of the lot. Yet it doesn't appeared to have reached huge numbers. Thanks is creeping normalcy. Folk don't understand how exceptional post war peace and prosperity is because it's all they've known. However that's europhiles fault. Voters are never wrong in politics even when they factually are.

The case was never made.
I never heard the EU would make me richer.

I did hear that the sky would literally fall in if we left the EU, which is not the same thing.

I still voted remain, DESPITE the remain campaign.

Casino_Royale

YellowSubmarine said:

On topic: Good that the numbers of folk think Brexit will reduce their standard of living is up sharply since May. Firstly because they are correct and thus can plan accordingly. Secondly it good they realise that before Brexit is irreversible. It will at least increase proper scrutiny of the project. The finding makes grim reading for s europhiles though. It shows how toxic a brand the EU is and how poorly we made our case. The " the EU makes trade freer and free trade makes everyone richer " argument was the strongest, most evidence based and arguably the most compelling of the lot. Yet it doesn't appeared to have reached huge numbers. Thanks is creeping normalcy. Folk don't understand how exceptional post war peace and prosperity is because it's all they've known. However that's europhiles fault. Voters are never wrong in politics even when they factually are.

I know you'll disagree, but I don't think we'll notice a material difference in our wealth once we've left and, in fact, I expect us to do better than rEU in the long run.

I think voters are factoring in the short-term impacts of the next 1-3 years into a longer-term view. Which is normal.

IanB2

ThreeQuidder said:

Gardenwalker said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

The amount of resources that the LDs have poured into this by election is, to put it mildly, rather difficult to replicate in a general election.

Depending to some extent on how many seats they decide to go for. The targeting decision next time is going to be critical, and very difficult, for the LibDems. They desperately need to make the most of what opportunities there are, to get back to a parliamentary party that can at least get noticed now and again, but cannot risk aiming too high and ending up with just a handful.

nunu

Alistair said:

Come on 25/1 shot

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/788818251476180992

Woohoo. The best rebuke.

foxinsoxuk

ThreeQuidder said:

Gardenwalker said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

The amount of resources that the LDs have poured into this by election is, to put it mildly, rather difficult to replicate in a general election.

On the contrary, it is training for a GE. Mobile activists willing and ready to canvass are one of Farron's plans, at every level. He wants to develop from the grassroots up, and put a decent effort into every winnable election.

A strong second place on 25% of the vote would be a good showing.

nunu

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

nunu said:

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

No, someone else with different political views would be making such videos and having millions watch. And therein lies a hint of the poison in the US whoever wins.

I thought our referendum campaign was toxic with even a lawmaker being killed and little real facts being debated, but theirs is ten times worse. And the division is also one based on culture aswell. So sad.

PlatoSaid

Real Donald Trump
'Dem Operative Who Oversaw Trump Rally Agitators Visited White House 342 Times' #DrainTheSwamp
https://t.co/MO4SJaQMzo

Monksfield

IanB2 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Gardenwalker said:

MarkSenior said:

Gardenwalker said:

Black_Rook said:

Above: "But if general elections, unlike referendums, are won ‘on it’s the economy, stupid’ these are troubling numbers for Mrs May"

Two outcomes are required in order for the economy to become a real problem for the Tories. Firstly, things need to actually start going seriously wrong. Predictions of disaster won't make much difference to anything. Secondly, there needs to be an alternative party available that a sufficient plurality of the electorate believes is capable of delivering a better performance.

The first condition may or may not come to pass, but there seems to be little threat of the second. Until this changes, the Tories are essentially invulnerable.

Agree with this.

The LDs could try to play this role, but they need to give voters a reason to go with them.

They need to position themselves as a sane moderator of Tory hard Brexiteers, which they can't do if their policy is "Rejoin at all costs".

They also need to call out Corbyn's lunacy.

They need to present themselves as a coalition partner for either, but provide some stiff conditions, for example Minister of Brexit post in a Con/LD coalition, or Treasury and Defence in a Lab/LD coalition. Ie focus on where the larger parties look most "vulnerably extreme" to centrists like myself.

If centrists thought that a coalescing LD party could temper or even stymie the Cons, they might get some attention.

They don't have long to figure out their strategy. I maintain that an election in 2017 is more likely than not.

I expect the Witney result tomorrow will poor enough for the Conservatives that it will end talk of a 2017 GE

May and Tory high command might disagree with me, but however well the LDs perform tomorrow (and they won't win), it should have no bearing on GE support.

If the LDs do perform well, it's evidence merely of a very good ground game and Labour collapse amid low turnout.

The amount of resources that the LDs have poured into this by election is, to put it mildly, rather difficult to replicate in a general election.

Depending to some extent on how many seats they decide to go for. The targeting decision next time is going to be critical, and very difficult, for the LibDems. They desperately need to make the most of what opportunities there are, to get back to a parliamentary party that can at least get noticed now and again, but cannot risk aiming too high and ending up with just a handful.

Places to target will be the places lost to Cameron in '10, Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Twickenham etc. I'd focus on about 15-20 seats and hit them hard.

YellowSubmarine

Surely there is a strong counterintuitive case that a shock in Witney tomorrow actually increases the chances of a Spring '17 election ? If it happens ( I don't believe it will ) then the entire political establishment will over react, the push back against hard Brexit will be enormous and May will find it harder still to get any policies through. As midterm By-Elections, especially ones with such sui generis local circumstances, tell you nothing about General Elections on there own May must be tempted to go for what I'm now calling #MayDay.

Jason

To be fair, it's not a question directly asking who is better suited to run the economy. If it's a question of that and best PM, the Tories are miles ahead of Labour. If the public didn't think the Tories were better at running the overall economy, and had the best leader for PM, the polling figures would surely reflect that. Brexit is not something the public can blame the government for - it is, after all, the public who voted for it.

JohnO

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Whats Speedy got banned for?

Has he been banned?

Monksfield

IanB2 said:

Monksfield said:

The Tories clearly are cruising at the moment, but it's a very soft vote, and predicated massively on the failings of Corbyn.

If Labour could find a leader and a voice then we could rapidly see a 10% swing in that polling.

I can't believe their vote would go down that much more.

10% swing is still 42/34 or thereabouts. I think 10-12% of Tory support is soft and could peel off quickly if Brexit has adverse consequences.

Anorak

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

nunu said:

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

No, someone else with different political views would be making such videos and having millions watch. And therein lies a hint of the poison in the US whoever wins.

I couldn't find that story in either of these places:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news
http://edition.cnn.com/politics

That's utterly scandalous given this is Watergate x1000. In fact x100000000. At least. Luckily Fox is giving it the attention it deserves!! #CrookedHillaryShouldBeInAFederalPenitentiary

Gardenwalker

YellowSubmarine said:

Surely there is a strong counterintuitive case that a shock in Witney tomorrow actually increases the chances of a Spring '17 election ? If it happens ( I don't believe it will ) then the entire political establishment will over react, the push back against hard Brexit will be enormous and May will find it harder still to get any policies through. As midterm By-Elections, especially ones with such sui generis local circumstances, tell you nothing about General Elections on there own May must be tempted to go for what I'm now calling #MayDay.

I think this is correct.

Poor LD performance; who cares
Good LD performance; good for LDs but who cares
Shock; May less likely herself to want a GE but the media will latch onto LDs as favourite anti-Brexit vehicle. A Cleggasm, if you like. In turn this will set off the dynamic you describe.

Paul_Bedfordshire

nunu said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

nunu said:

PlatoSaid said:

For anyone interested and still thinking vote rigging is a conspiracy theory

4.4m views on YouTube in a couple of days

https://youtu.be/5IuJGHuIkzY

Would still be saying the vote is rigged if Trump was winning?

No, someone else with different political views would be making such videos and having millions watch. And therein lies a hint of the poison in the US whoever wins.

I thought our referendum campaign was toxic with even a lawmaker being killed and little real facts being debated, but theirs is ten times worse. And the division is also one based on culture aswell. So sad.

I hesitate to say this as it sounds hyperbolic, but the US is beginning to resemble the Spanish Second Republic in the 1930s.