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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chanc

SystemSystem Posts: 11,015
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chance of being next President

Before the start of the third & final debate, Betfair gives Trump a 16% chance of being next President, what will it be in the morning? pic.twitter.com/ci50QuQzRr

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    First?
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    Second like Trump
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/19/debate_text_mining_trump_has_a_cousin_in_perot__132098.html

    He speaks like Perot and thinks like Perot. It's not impossible he'll act like Perot.

    And withdraw.

    Were I a smarter man, I'd be able to come up with a dead Perot joke.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Fourth! Going to miss most of the debate tonight, unfortunately (or maybe fortunately).
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    First?

    First like McMullin in Utah.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Sixth like Colin Baker. Sadly not like Donald Trump
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pong said:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/19/debate_text_mining_trump_has_a_cousin_in_perot__132098.html

    He speaks like Perot and thinks like Perot. It's not impossible he'll act like Perot.

    And withdraw.

    Were I a smarter man, I'd be able to come up with a dead Perot joke.

    lol

    Just searched google for "Ross Perot"

    Google then informs me that the top question people ask is;

    "What year did Ross Perot die?"

    He's not actually dead.

    People are funny.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/19/debate_text_mining_trump_has_a_cousin_in_perot__132098.html

    He speaks like Perot and thinks like Perot. It's not impossible he'll act like Perot.

    And withdraw.

    Were I a smarter man, I'd be able to come up with a dead Perot joke.

    lol

    Just searched google for "Ross Perot"

    Google then informs me that the top question people ask is;

    "What year did Ross Perot die?"

    He's not actually dead.

    People are funny.
    People should've listened to him about that great sucking sound of jobs going south, he was right.
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    The Independent: ‘Alan Turing law’ unveiled by government will posthumously pardon thousands of gay men convicted of historic offences. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwzMmghjA
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    The Independent: ‘Alan Turing law’ unveiled by government will posthumously pardon thousands of gay men convicted of historic offences. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwzMmghjA

    The pardon for the living I can understand, but for the dead? Unless we are going to go back and pardon everyone for every unjust law ever passed, I don't see the point.
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    Evening Standard: Anthony Hilton: Will Indian pride scupper Theresa May’s trade deal? http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw4KeThTA
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Kay Burley's just initiated a media pile on against a Trump advisor.
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    Kay Burley's just initiated a media pile on against a Trump advisor.
    What did she do?
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    RobD said:

    The Independent: ‘Alan Turing law’ unveiled by government will posthumously pardon thousands of gay men convicted of historic offences. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwzMmghjA

    The pardon for the living I can understand, but for the dead? Unless we are going to go back and pardon everyone for every unjust law ever passed, I don't see the point.
    Yes it's legislative time travel. It's the ultimate in gesture politics and once upon a time I'd have been a contrarian critic of it. But after the Coalition used retroactive legislation to overturn a High Court ruling on Benefit Sanctions, without even appealing it to the Supreme Court, I no longer care.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    Kay Burley's just initiated a media pile on against a Trump advisor.
    What did she do?
    She was aggressively asking him to substantiate allegations of voter fraud and a scrum of other reporters gradually started assembling around him and joining in.
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    Kay Burley's just initiated a media pile on against a Trump advisor.
    What did she do?
    She was aggressively asking him to substantiate allegations of voter fraud and a scrum of other reporters gradually started assembling around him and joining in.
    Did she see sadness in his eyes?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    Anyone know of a reliable audio feed that works on Android? There's what looks like one at http://radio.foxnews.com/ but it doesn't seem to be playing for me, not sure if that's because it doesn't work on my phone or just because they just haven't started the debate yet.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    Ah, got it. You have to click the large, orange banner at the top saying
    FNR’s Special Coverage: The Final Presidential Debate of 2016 | Listen Here!
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016

    Anyone know of a reliable audio feed that works on Android? There's what looks like one at http://radio.foxnews.com/ but it doesn't seem to be playing for me, not sure if that's because it doesn't work on my phone or just because they just haven't started the debate yet.

    I think the C-SPAN radio app is streaming it. I'd guess they have an android app (?)

    Works on ios in the UK, at least.
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    Will it not be on BBC Radio 4/ World Service?
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    Its live streaming in HD on YouTube..lots of dodgy unofficial links, but there is an official one, available in 1080p if you like seeing ugly people up close in HD.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    The Scottish boundary proposals have been published:

    http://www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/2018_westminster/initial_proposals/index.asp

    Includes the horribly named Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Monklands East.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Will it not be on BBC Radio 4/ World Service?

    It'll be on Five Live as well.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Kay Burley's just initiated a media pile on against a Trump advisor.
    Was it Bill Mitchell?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    Pong said:

    Anyone know of a reliable audio feed that works on Android? There's what looks like one at http://radio.foxnews.com/ but it doesn't seem to be playing for me, not sure if that's because it doesn't work on my phone or just because they just haven't started the debate yet.

    I think the C-SPAN radio app is streaming it. I'd guess they have an android app (?)

    Works on ios in the UK, at least.
    Cheers, got the Fox link working now. Coming from them it's interesting how anti-Trump the commentary is.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,710
    It's in Channel 4. Matt Frei & two expats they dragged off the street are Speaking Their Brains. Hillary is in a white pants suit. Matt Frei has really let himself go
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    Pong said:

    Anyone know of a reliable audio feed that works on Android? There's what looks like one at http://radio.foxnews.com/ but it doesn't seem to be playing for me, not sure if that's because it doesn't work on my phone or just because they just haven't started the debate yet.

    I think the C-SPAN radio app is streaming it. I'd guess they have an android app (?)

    Works on ios in the UK, at least.
    Cheers, got the Fox link working now. Coming from them it's interesting how anti-Trump the commentary is.
    Excluding Trump's mate Hannity, they hate him.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    viewcode said:

    Hillary is in a white pants suit.

    I just got a CNN alert saying 'Hillary will try to stay out of the mud'.
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    The warm up act ain't very good ;-) ...I bet Jeremy Kyle has better pre-show entertainers.
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    Was that the hitman nut job Roger Stone in the front row? I thought Trump had banished him.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,710
    Anyhoo, serious betting question. I was going to look at the numbers to see if I could puzzle out who's going to win, but given HRC's lead in the polls and the very small odds (1/6?!) I'm not sure there's a point. So insteadI'll ask another question: is there any good odds to be made on this election? Is there a state, say, which she has a good chance of winning but odds are, say, 2/1?
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    RobD said:

    The Independent: ‘Alan Turing law’ unveiled by government will posthumously pardon thousands of gay men convicted of historic offences. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwzMmghjA

    The pardon for the living I can understand, but for the dead? Unless we are going to go back and pardon everyone for every unjust law ever passed, I don't see the point.
    virtue signalling, owd. No nasty parties round this way, no sir
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, serious betting question. I was going to look at the numbers to see if I could puzzle out who's going to win, but given HRC's lead in the polls and the very small odds (1/6?!) I'm not sure there's a point. So insteadI'll ask another question: is there any good odds to be made on this election? Is there a state, say, which she has a good chance of winning but odds are, say, 2/1?

    Keep an eye on georgia and texas for clinton - and ohio for trump, if you want long odds.

    Not necessarily value, though!
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    And we are off...no handshakes.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Clinton in white; Trump in black; you couldn't make this shit up.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Here we go....RoboClinton...focus grouped answer..make sure check every box...LGBT...big business...Citizen United...
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Here we go....RoboClinton...focus grouped answer..make sure check every box...LGBT...big business...

    Yes, it's a list of buttons being pressed one after another.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Trump...GUNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS....Trump zero prep answer.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Anyhoo this is the map for future elections when in 2 to 3 elections times whites will be a minority in much of the south, and manufacturing jobs are still leaving the mid west.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/nJxjb

    Florida is a swing state as it assumes some swing back to the GOP from Cuban voters as well as the large white retiree population continues to grow quicker than the young. New Hampshire is red as it stays much whiter and gets much older than the rest of the u.s. Texas is minority majority.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    McMullin in to 395 from 630 four hours ago.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    Debate is pretty low energy so far.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Hillary: Save 33,000 lives that we lose to guns...

    Where have I heard that number before?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Pong said:

    Debate is pretty low energy so far.

    And that is overstating it....come on Donald, claim Clinton is a member of ISIS or something.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    He's winning on guns; she's being negative and whiny, even though she's right.
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    Dromedary said:

    He's winning on guns; she's being negative and whiny, even though she's right.

    As a non-American, trying to work out who wins on gun issues is beyond me. Asking for background checks and not being able to buy crazy powerful guns seems like the least you could do, but large sections of US go nutso if you want to do that.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MikeL said:

    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

    But he's saying that individual States will make that decision and States Rights is a strong plus for many voters. She's just alienated voters in States who have a different view and told them they have to be saved from themselves.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited October 2016
    MikeL said:

    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

    Of course it is. Not being a social conservative was the only thing going for him. Sounds like he's trying to save Texas if he says that.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Both have terrible tone for such a sensitive issue.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    She's saying the government shouldn't "force women to have children" like they did in Romania.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    Wallace a good moderator - straightforward, authoritative and very clear questions.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    MikeL said:

    Wallace a good moderator - straightforward, authoritative and very clear questions.

    Certainly better so far than the previous two. He asks a follow up in a sensible way, moderating rather than interrogator.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I think we've been spoilt with the earlier debates. This one is stodgy and policy focused so far, where's the chaos? Assuming it stays like this, minor boost for Trump I'd say as he's cleared a low bar for him.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    SNIFF..."We have to keep the drugs out of our country"
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016

    I think we've been spoilt with the earlier debates. This one is stodgy and policy focused so far, where's the chaos? Assuming it stays like this, minor boost for Trump I'd say as he's cleared a low bar for him.

    So far I don't think it will have changed a single persons mind.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    edited October 2016
    GeoffM said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

    But he's saying that individual States will make that decision and States Rights is a strong plus for many voters. She's just alienated voters in States who have a different view and told them they have to be saved from themselves.
    If it goes to the states then there is the farce of going from one state to another to get an abortion.

    Can't make any sense.

    Haven't seen recent polls but from memory way under 50% want total ban on abortion - so subject good for Clinton in my view.
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    Oh here we go....I met somebody once....Ed Miliband stylely.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dromedary said:

    She's saying the government shouldn't "force women to have children" like they did in Romania.

    Yeah I heard her say that before something about how Romania used to police woman into having five kids.....wtf if true.
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    Dromedary said:

    SNIFF..."We have to keep the drugs out of our country"

    Its a broken mic I tell you....
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    edited October 2016

    MikeL said:

    Wallace a good moderator - straightforward, authoritative and very clear questions.

    Certainly better so far than the previous two. He asks a follow up in a sensible way, moderating rather than interrogator.
    Yes, he's probed sensibly to seek specific answers.

    Seems quite similar to Andrew Neil.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Hillary trying to bait Trump with that 'choked' comment
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MikeL said:

    GeoffM said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

    But he's saying that individual States will make that decision and States Rights is a strong plus for many voters. She's just alienated voters in States who have a different view and told them they have to be saved from themselves.
    If it goes to the states then there is the farce of going from one state to another to get an abortion.

    Can't make any sense.

    Haven't seen recent polls but from memory way under 50% want total ban on abortion - so subject good for Clinton in my view.
    Will power up their respective bases.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    And Trump is off....NAFTA...good deal...wall...

    Moderator cuts him off, well done.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Trump in Utah is 2.25 with betfair sportsbook.

    Decent bet.
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    Bigly...bigly....
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    nunu said:

    Dromedary said:

    She's saying the government shouldn't "force women to have children" like they did in Romania.

    Yeah I heard her say that before something about how Romania used to police woman into having five kids.....wtf if true.
    Yup, Ceauescu was obsessed with improving the country's birth rate. Not just abortion but contraception was banned, and women and girls were subject to regular mandatory pregnancy tests from age 14. If a woman was found pregnant, woe betide her if she lost the baby as it would be assumed she'd had an illegal abortion until proven otherwise.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Hillary: "Wikileaks - what's important is the Russians!"
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    Clinton is stupid to get into this.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    rpjs said:

    nunu said:

    Dromedary said:

    She's saying the government shouldn't "force women to have children" like they did in Romania.

    Yeah I heard her say that before something about how Romania used to police woman into having five kids.....wtf if true.
    Yup, Ceauescu was obsessed with improving the country's birth rate. Not just abortion but contraception was banned, and women and girls were subject to regular mandatory pregnancy tests from age 14. If a woman was found pregnant, woe betide her if she lost the baby as it would be assumed she'd had an illegal abortion until proven otherwise.

    The context here was whether abortions should be allowed very late in term. In response to Trump's image of a baby being ripped from the womb shortly before it would have been born naturally, Clinton said women wouldn't be forced to have abortions as in China or forced to have babies as in Romania.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GeoffM said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely bad electorally for Trump to say he wants to overturn Roe v Wade.

    But he's saying that individual States will make that decision and States Rights is a strong plus for many voters. She's just alienated voters in States who have a different view and told them they have to be saved from themselves.
    It's a good thing she doesn't need any red states then.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump: Putin has no respect for Clinton.
    Clinton: That's because he'd rather have a puppet.
    Trump: You're the puppet.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Come on moderator shut them up.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Getting interesting. Clinton needs to be careful...
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Clinton: "I would work with our allies."

    In the US, aren't they supposed to say "I will"?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    ClintonBot off again....I am pretty sure this is nearly word for word what she said last time.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Dromedary said:

    Clinton: "I would work with our allies."

    In the US, aren't they supposed to say "I will"?

    The odd thing I've noticed is that many of them say "I am" when talking about future promises.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    "Climate Change" gets a hat-tip in passing ... luckily it's not the drinking version of buzzword bingo at 330am.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
    Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
    Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
    Franklin - 12.7%
    47 other counties +0.4%

    Obamas margin of victory in Ohio in 2012 was smaller statewide then in the one county of Cuyahoga, this looks like a Trump gain because unionised workers not too excited about Hillary.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    First time I have heard a concrete Clinton policy. No college fees (at public schools) for families earning under $120k a year. That sounds expensive.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    ClintonBot off again....I am pretty sure this is nearly word for word what she said last time.

    Her puppet comment was good to be fair, probably best quip she's made yet. Certainly riled him up!
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    Dromedary said:

    Clinton: "I would work with our allies."

    In the US, aren't they supposed to say "I will"?

    I think she was using the conditional? With an implied "If elected...."

    Ah. A Bernie Sanders call-out. Someone must have just won some money.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Trump still answering the last question....and he is off rambling all over the place.

    I can't imagine ever having to do business or work with Trump, it is like for 15 mins he is ok, then his brain just goes off on one.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited October 2016

    ClintonBot off again....I am pretty sure this is nearly word for word what she said last time.

    "What difference does it make"!
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Trump still answering the last question....

    He slowly walked the answer around to the economy and actually got there, which was an achievement!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Clinton really is snarky. It is not a good look..."Oh let me translate his nonsense"...I wonder if she is like that with other world leaders / leading politicians?

    Why not just ignore the idiot and just state your policies. As she said, when they go low, we go high.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    If Trump's campaign had just been laser focused on the stuff he is talking about now, he would be in the race.

    He doesn't have a solution, but he has tapped into a real issue in the US and one that Clinton doesn't really sound like she cares.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    Clinton: "I would work with our allies."

    In the US, aren't they supposed to say "I will"?

    I think she was using the conditional? With an implied "If elected...."
    Exactly.
    She's not doing it so much now.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    Betfair exactly where it started pre debate.

    Clinton went in to 1.21 very briefly but now back at 1.22 where she started.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump: "I built some of the greatest assets anywhere in the world". YAWN!
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    Clinton's "I have done great for 30 years" isn't really what Joe the Plumber wants to hear. Clinton reminds me a lot of how many Labour politicians have become, you don't believe they have any idea about the working class.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Here we go...Jerry Jerry Jerry...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Have I missed much??
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    RobD said:

    Have I missed much??

    Not really...it has been really really low energy so far.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    Have I missed much??

    Not so far, but this one might be the kick-off trouble question!
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287
    A whole section on women's allegations against Trump.

    Wallace tacked on a question about Bill Clinton but section centred on Trump.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited October 2016
    MikeL said:

    A whole section on women's allegations against Trump.

    Wallace tacked on a question about Bill Clinton but section centred on Trump.

    I thought the debate was supposed to be on foreign policy :p
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,710
    @Pong
    georgia for clinton
    texas for clinton
    ohio for trump
    utah for trump

    Thank you, sir
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump says the nine women who claims he assaulted them were either seeking 10 minutes of fame, or, more likely in his view, put up to it by the Clinton campaign.
This discussion has been closed.