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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton is winning this elections because it has becom

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton is winning this elections because it has become a referendum on Donald Trump

I’ve just got back from Brussels where Matthew Shaddick (the famous Shadsy of Ladbrokes) and I gave presentations about betting on politics which is almost certainly more advanced in the UK than anywhere else in the world.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    first unlike Donald.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    He who hesitates is lost. The perils of refreshing.

    I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DavidL said:

    He who hesitates is lost. The perils of refreshing.

    I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.

    which isn't a surprise. The guy wont even bother to practice. Because "I'm so good at debating, you won't believe it" etc etc. He has to be the worst candidate in US election history.
  • I would have posted first, but I am the victim of a media stitch up, a government fix, and I had my internet cut by Ecuador.
  • 619 said:
    Mothertucker (sic).

    Are we on course for a landslide of Reagan v Mondale proportions?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I would have posted first, but I am the victim of a media stitch up, a government fix, and I had my internet cut by Ecuador.

    Don't accept the result!! Ring Mike and tell him you were done out of first place by a conspiracy of lizard men and aliens.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    edited October 2016
    Good to hear about Mike and Shadsy trip to Belgium - educating our European friends about the merits of wagering on politics. No doubt we will see political betting in Brussels sprout.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    I would have posted first, but I am the victim of a media stitch up, a government fix, and I had my internet cut by Ecuador.

    You wasn' saying that when you was only up against the party grandees. Oh wait..........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Trump agrees to accept result if he wins.

    Yep, he really wants to win this election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    PlatoSaid said:

    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate

    Reading his blog post, I'd say he is one step away from believing that lizard men are controlling the electoral machines from a secret hideaway in Patagonia.

    His cartoons are funny.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Trump agrees to accept result if he wins.

    Yep, he really wants to win this election.

    He should really only have said "I reserve the right to contest it if it appears very close". If he's 100 EVs down, there's no way that could be contested.

    Was disappointed with the lack of handshaking again last night.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    619 said:
    Mothertucker (sic).

    Are we on course for a landslide of Reagan v Mondale proportions?
    We are indeed. Bet accordingly. DYOR.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate

    Reading his blog post, I'd say he is one step away from believing that lizard men are controlling the electoral machines from a secret hideaway in Patagonia.

    His cartoons are funny.
    His assessment of the debate seems true enough.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Trumps campaign sucks almost, but not quite, as much as Ed Milibands. What chance a Trumpstone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Jonathan said:

    Trumps campaign sucks almost, but not quite, as much as Ed Milibands. What chance a Trumpstone.

    It would be shaped to look like him. In fact, it would be a statue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    DavidL said:

    He who hesitates is lost. The perils of refreshing.

    I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.

    which isn't a surprise. The guy wont even bother to practice. Because "I'm so good at debating, you won't believe it" etc etc. He has to be the worst candidate in US election history.
    The tragedy of that is he is giving Hillary a free ride, when she really should be explaining her long string of failures.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    DavidL said:

    He who hesitates is lost. The perils of refreshing.

    I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.

    So many unforced errors, too. On the rare occasions when they were actually debating policy he sounded reasonably coherent. Then he gets asked a straight question about whether or not he'd accept the result and shoots himself in the foot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2016
    Way down...like the down ballot GOP candidates after Donald Al-Suicidey TrumpAhldi debate performance....
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Jonathan said:

    Trumps campaign sucks almost, but not quite, as much as Ed Milibands. What chance a Trumpstone.

    He's planning a 1,989 mile-long line of Trumpstones.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    RobD said:

    Trump agrees to accept result if he wins.

    Yep, he really wants to win this election.

    He should really only have said "I reserve the right to contest it if it appears very close". If he's 100 EVs down, there's no way that could be contested.

    Was disappointed with the lack of handshaking again last night.
    trump was too busy hiding behind the lecturn
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    619 said:

    RobD said:

    Trump agrees to accept result if he wins.

    Yep, he really wants to win this election.

    He should really only have said "I reserve the right to contest it if it appears very close". If he's 100 EVs down, there's no way that could be contested.

    Was disappointed with the lack of handshaking again last night.
    trump was too busy hiding behind the lecturn
    I think they are both to blame on that front. It has been pretty acrimonious though.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/20/no-man-yesterdays-sun-not-interpreter/

    So he wasn't an interpreter after all... I'm shocked.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    619 said:
    Mothertucker (sic).

    Are we on course for a landslide of Reagan v Mondale proportions?
    He's gonna tweet: THANK YOU NORTH CAROLINA!
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    what were the candidate's relative favourability and ratings on economy ? what was obama's job approval? What was the figure on how many believe the sexual assault allegations?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Arron Banks ‏@Arron_banks 9m9 minutes ago
    I forecast trump will win! I think that's clear
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    In a world where you think one candidate will change the direction from the wrong track to derailed.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    what were the candidate's relative favourability and ratings on economy ? what was obama's job approval? What was the figure on how many believe the sexual assault allegations?

    I absolutely accept all your points. But I would argue this election is unlike any other because Americans aren;t really voting for a president - they are voting for a wrecking ball. Anyway, I'm going to get off this topic before I get into any more trouble.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    Oh and the last pollster in ohio was Trump 43 Clinton 39. So is good for Clinton overall

    Just sayin
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2016
    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    619 said:

    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    what were the candidate's relative favourability and ratings on economy ? what was obama's job approval? What was the figure on how many believe the sexual assault allegations?
    yebbutbottery at its finest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited October 2016

    DavidL said:

    He who hesitates is lost. The perils of refreshing.

    I did not watch the third debate but the snippets I have seen show Hilary with Donald on toast. Her comments about every defeat for Trump being a fix were pretty brutal. Her comments on her "bringing Bin Laden to justice" (aka assassination) when he was conducting celebrity apprentice were cutting. From these snippets, which may not show the whole story, she has his measure and outclasses him as a debater.

    which isn't a surprise. The guy wont even bother to practice. Because "I'm so good at debating, you won't believe it" etc etc. He has to be the worst candidate in US election history.
    The tragedy of that is he is giving Hillary a free ride, when she really should be explaining her long string of failures.
    Yes. Hillary is the uber prepared swot, with her debating points memorised,

    He's the brilliant ad libber.

    But her team has spent hours thinking about how to needle Trump and make him lose his cool. And they manage it every time. And he says something stupid. And then it's all about Trump's unsuitability for the Presidency.

    Hillary learnt from her debate difficulties. Donald Trump took nothing from his successes.
  • rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting
    Fair enough, but they can't make decisions on things which will effect us while we are members. Everything for after is fine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    That's why the whole debate is about Trump's suitability. That's why Clinton's team has been so brilliant.

    People are scared to vote for Donald, even though they want a change, because the Clinton machine has been utterly brilliant, and utterly ruthless.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    I spent a few hours in Witney today, trying to get an idea of how things might go in the by-election. Lot of posters for all three main parties, and Bernie Sanders' brother riding around the town in one of those bicycle/rickshaw things, waving at people.
  • Scott_P said:

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting
    And so the UK vetoes their decisions. The EU are just unbelievably stupid
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nielsen ratings indicate final debate drew audience of 69M compared to 66M for the second debate and 84M for the first debate :

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/preliminary-final-debate-ratings-69-million-230102
  • RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting
    Fair enough, but they can't make decisions on things which will effect us while we are members. Everything for after is fine.
    Bit like Sturgeon voting against English laws as it may in her mind effect Scotland. The EU are heading for deadlock
  • Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    So maybe May is playing her chess in three dimensions whilst we are looking at a flat board? You never know.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited October 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    That might point to a safe con hold.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    You may be right in this complex issue and a straight forward vote in the HOC to trigger A50 would be good as long as the unelected HOL don't try to delay or stop it
  • AndyJS said:

    I spent a few hours in Witney today, trying to get an idea of how things might go in the by-election. Lot of posters for all three main parties, and Bernie Sanders' brother riding around the town in one of those bicycle/rickshaw things, waving at people.

    The posters are mainly in Witney. Go round the villages and they are absent. I suspect all the organisers have focused on Witney as both operationally easier and probably the key area for floaters

    Green effort has been greater than normal but still tiny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    That might point to a safe con hold.
    I hold by my earlier prediction: a great LibDem performance (say a 20% swing to them from the Conservatives), but that being nowhere near enough.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    Doesn't that defeat the governments view that they can use the royal prerogative. Governments tend not to like giving up powers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    So maybe May is playing her chess in three dimensions whilst we are looking at a flat board? You never know.
    If she can pull off a reversal of Brexit she'll go down as one of the greats, even if she does nothing else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    You may be right in this complex issue and a straight forward vote in the HOC to trigger A50 would be good as long as the uneected HOL don't try to delay or stop it
    Mrs May makes it a vote of confidence. The Labour peers dare not stop a Bill that would result in an absolute massacring of their party in the ensuing general.

    Also, remember that even LibDems such as Vince Cable and Paddy Ashdown have said the vote must be respected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    So maybe May is playing her chess in three dimensions whilst we are looking at a flat board? You never know.
    If she can pull off a reversal of Brexit she'll go down as one of the greats, even if she does nothing else.
    Similarly if she can pull off a successful Brexit, which is far more likely than us going crawling back to Brussels.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    Doesn't that defeat the governments view that they can use the royal prerogative. Governments tend not to like giving up powers.
    There is no analagous situation; the government is not going to be invoking any other treaty provisions to leave supra-national bodies (unless you think departing from the WTO or NATO is likely). So why bother?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    I said I wouldn't post any more on Potus 2016, but here's one final parting shot...

    The last Ohio poll was 45/45. And yet look at the number for 'country's on the wrong track'

    60-odd/ 30-odd for the 'wrong track'

    Now, in what world to people who want to change the direction of the country vote for Hillary Clinton? she is the continuity candidate to end all continuity candidates. She is Mrs 'as you were'

    Just sayin'

    That's why the whole debate is about Trump's suitability. That's why Clinton's team has been so brilliant.

    People are scared to vote for Donald, even though they want a change, because the Clinton machine has been utterly brilliant, and utterly ruthless.
    So brilliant and ruthless they couldn't defeat a black Muslim Kenyan? More like their opponent is utterly useless.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    Witney felt a bit like a Tory version of Islington. Full of paternalistic Oxford lecturer types. UKIP probably do dreadfully in the town itself, picking up 99% of their votes in the rest of the constituency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    Doesn't that defeat the governments view that they can use the royal prerogative. Governments tend not to like giving up powers.
    There is no analagous situation; the government is not going to be invoking any other treaty provisions to leave supra-national bodies (unless you think departing from the WTO or NATO is likely). So why bother?
    Not sure, but they are clearly fighting it.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting

    The Brexit vote is meaningless to the EU.

    Remember they said nothing should happen until after A50 is enacted.

    So why are they doing anything different?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    PlatoSaid said:

    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate

    Reading his blog post, I'd say he is one step away from believing that lizard men are controlling the electoral machines from a secret hideaway in Patagonia.

    His cartoons are funny.
    He believes in affirmations. That is, if you write down a thing you want to happen 15 times every day then it will happen.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    AndyJS said:

    Witney felt a bit like a Tory version of Islington. Full of paternalistic Oxford lecturer types. UKIP probably do dreadfully in the town itself, picking up 99% of their votes in the rest of the constituency.

    I spent Saturday delivering targeted Labour squeeze letters in ex Local Authority flats in Woodstock. Today has been spent knocking up on the phone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    @faisalislam: EU source to @skynews - Tusk replied to the PM: all this is a result of the Brexit vote, and the EU 27 WILL keep meeting

    The Brexit vote is meaningless to the EU.

    Remember they said nothing should happen until after A50 is enacted.

    So why are they doing anything different?

    They aren't forbidden from discussing it amongst themselves. Juncker's presidential diktat is only limited to discussions with the UK
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: oysters for lunch with smart Remainer friend. Haven't seen him for a while.

    He was in shameful despair about the result in July, now doesn't care, just wants everyone to get on with Leaving, so we know where we are.

    I wonder how many Remainers share these sentiments. Quite a few, I suspect.

    Sensible chap.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate

    Reading his blog post, I'd say he is one step away from believing that lizard men are controlling the electoral machines from a secret hideaway in Patagonia.

    His cartoons are funny.
    He believes in affirmations. That is, if you write down a thing you want to happen 15 times every day then it will happen.
    Isn't that the approach @williamglenn uses to keeping Britain in the EU?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    rcs1000 said:


    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    I'm sure many would like to do that, but the complicating factor is that it would have to be unanimous, which means endless scope for conditions to be placed on the extension - regarding the rebate, for example.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: oysters for lunch with smart Remainer friend. Haven't seen him for a while.

    He was in shameful despair about the result in July, now doesn't care, just wants everyone to get on with Leaving, so we know where we are.

    I wonder how many Remainers share these sentiments. Quite a few, I suspect.

    Shrewd man, wants a decent lunch, rather than banging on about Brexit.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited October 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    That someone was an LD ramper.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    The turnout can be both well down on the GE yet surprisingly good for a typical by election
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    I'm surprised that Clinton's price is holding steady at 1.19 i.e. an 84% chance. I would think it is much higher than that - over 90%.

    If Trump, against all the odds does win, there will be almighty crash in the dollar and Wall Street so her unusually long odds could be caused by hedging by some very wealthy investors. Could be a betting opportunity.

    I'm very long on Clinton - as long as I can afford to lose.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    How can they walk away from A50 in 2018 if its been served by March 2017
    The threat to Brexit is the government falling during the negotiating period and being replaced by a pro-EU one. Whatever the treaties say, Article 50 can be rescinded by the EU just agreeing to an indefinite extension. And wouldn't they love to do that? See, the UK wanted to Leave, but then realised what a disaster it was, they'd say.

    We need to get as many people committed to Brexit as possible. We need as many people as possible to walk through the lobby and affirm the will of the people. An MP that voted on the Article 50 Enabling Bill will find it much harder to change his mind later. One who hasn't will find it much easier to flex.

    Not only that, but an Article 50 Enabling Bill passed 550 to 100 makes it clear to the EU how committed the political class in the UK is.

    Mrs May is fighting an unecessary battle that endangers Brexit, and makes the possibility of a successful negotiation less likely.
    You may be right in this complex issue and a straight forward vote in the HOC to trigger A50 would be good as long as the uneected HOL don't try to delay or stop it
    Mrs May makes it a vote of confidence. The Labour peers dare not stop a Bill that would result in an absolute massacring of their party in the ensuing general.

    Also, remember that even LibDems such as Vince Cable and Paddy Ashdown have said the vote must be respected.
    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Essexit said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    A man twitter is shadow banning. This whole thing is bizarre. And twitter is - I've seen it myself.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152067706781/i-score-the-third-debate

    Reading his blog post, I'd say he is one step away from believing that lizard men are controlling the electoral machines from a secret hideaway in Patagonia.

    His cartoons are funny.
    He believes in affirmations. That is, if you write down a thing you want to happen 15 times every day then it will happen.
    Isn't that the approach @williamglenn uses to keeping Britain in the EU?
    It's working so far. ;)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Tweet from Douglas Carswell...LOL

    "Trump refusing to accept US election result would be a bit like some UK Remain MPs and lawyers trying to subvert referendum result"

    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    The more MPs that have demonstrated a commitment to following the will of the people, the less likely there is to be backsliding later.

    There seems to be this idea that standing up against the legal challenge somehow increases the chance of Brexit, and prevents MPs stopping it. In fact, it does the opposite. Because an MP who hasn't voted for it, will find it much easier to walk away from Article 50 in 2018 if the UK is in a nasty recession.
    So maybe May is playing her chess in three dimensions whilst we are looking at a flat board? You never know.
    If she can pull off a reversal of Brexit she'll go down as one of the greats, even if she does nothing else.
    There are words for anti-democrats.

    "Great" is not one of them.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    The posters are mainly in Witney. Go round the villages and they are absent. I suspect all the organisers have focused on Witney as both operationally easier and probably the key area for floaters

    Lots of Lib Dem posters in their strongholds of Woodstock and Charlbury, and nearby - famously Cameron's village shop in Chadlington is displaying an LD poster. Conservative posters on trees and in hedges as per usual.

    LDs have been advertising on Facebook - I've had a few promoted items appear in my feed. Mostly leaflets though, yes.

    Labour will do respectably in Witney town and Chipping Norton but bomb elsewhere. I'm expecting 1 Con, 2 LD, 3 Lab, toss-up between Green and UKIP for 4th. It wouldn't astonish me if UKIP dropped to 5th.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: oysters for lunch with smart Remainer friend. Haven't seen him for a while.

    He was in shameful despair about the result in July, now doesn't care, just wants everyone to get on with Leaving, so we know where we are.

    I wonder how many Remainers share these sentiments. Quite a few, I suspect.

    Shrewd man, wants a decent lunch, rather than banging on about Brexit.
    Hah, possibly - but he was very voluble last time we met. And is usually quite keen to talk politics. Now he finds Brexit just a bit boring. It's done. Accept it. Get On With It. Was his brisk opinion.

    Then we talked at length about parenting, journalism, Belarus and sex.
    My wife's daughter was staunchly Remain - yet following the vote she's seen her available deposit on a London house rise by £75,000 in four months (foreign property appreciation) while London prices seem to be falling.

    The last thing she wants now is any hint of Remain.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Does anyone know whether Labour tried to play the Coalition card against the LibDems at Witney?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    justin124 said:

    Does anyone know whether Labour tried to play the Coalition card against the LibDems at Witney?

    Yes, Labour's big attack has been on the NHS and their leaflets have repeatedly referred to the Health and Social Care Act 2012 as a Tory/Lib Dem creation.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Oysters, crab risotto, two dishes of braised pigs' cheeks and chorizo, plus two bottles of Gavi di Gavi - £100''.

    It's grim up North London
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Does anyone know whether Labour tried to play the Coalition card against the LibDems at Witney?

    Yes, Labour's big attack has been on the NHS and their leaflets have repeatedly referred to the Health and Social Care Act 2012 as a Tory/Lib Dem creation.
    Thanks for that. It makes sense from a tactical perspective - though with time is likely to be a depreciating asset!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    The turnout can be both well down on the GE yet surprisingly good for a typical by election
    I know.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: oysters for lunch with smart Remainer friend. Haven't seen him for a while.

    He was in shameful despair about the result in July, now doesn't care, just wants everyone to get on with Leaving, so we know where we are.

    I wonder how many Remainers share these sentiments. Quite a few, I suspect.

    Shrewd man, wants a decent lunch, rather than banging on about Brexit.
    Hah, possibly - but he was very voluble last time we met. And is usually quite keen to talk politics. Now he finds Brexit just a bit boring. It's done. Accept it. Get On With It. Was his brisk opinion.

    Then we talked at length about parenting, journalism, Belarus and sex.
    Weekend plans?
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turn out in by election here in Witney likely to be significantly down on 2015, I have heard from several places

    Key talking point today in the town is the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. They are all over the place in Witney itself and very visible. They had 250 volunteers one day over the weekend

    Having been on the receiving end of the literature blizzard, I do feel that tactic's time may be over. We are the cusp between when paper communication dominated and before electronic completely takes over. No real appropriate equivalent electronically. Paper reaches the older voters (who vote) but doesn't reach younger voters (who don't)

    Expecting a UKIP collapse - the 50/1 to come second now looks short odds

    Someone else was reporting earlier that turnout was surprisingly good for a by-election.
    The turnout can be both well down on the GE yet surprisingly good for a typical by election
    I know.
    I was being cautious, I suspect it is well down. We shall see
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:


    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    She is (rightly) concerned that the House of Lords will throw it out and she will have to piss around for a year with the parliament act, which would then put the final leave in the same year as the next general election, giving her all the bad press and short term market reaction just when she doesnt need it.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
    But he could force her to table a formal No Confidence vote in her own Government - which,in turn, could lead to the constitutional uncertainty discussed here a few days ago.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nate Silver of 538 indicates that Trump's almost done :

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/
  • justin124 said:

    Does anyone know whether Labour tried to play the Coalition card against the LibDems at Witney?

    Yes, Labour's big attack has been on the NHS and their leaflets have repeatedly referred to the Health and Social Care Act 2012 as a Tory/Lib Dem creation.
    In his speeches at the hustings Duncan Enright the Labour candidate went out of his way to finger the Lib Dems as part of the Coalition. Liz Leffman had to counter it before making her own point, more than once
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
    She's clearly a keen student of Merkel. Never give up your margin for manoeuvre until you absolutely have to.

    Brexit is just an inconvenient reality created by Cameron's failed gambit, not a vital national interest to be protected at all costs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Yet a vote in parliament on an Article 50 Enabling Bill would be passed 550 to 100 (or more). Mrs May is having a totally unnecessary fight, and one that endangers Brexit.

    She is (rightly) concerned that the House of Lords will throw it out and she will have to piss around for a year with the parliament act, which would then put the final leave in the same year as the next general election, giving her all the bad press and short term market reaction just when she doesnt need it.

    Make it a vote of confidence. If the Lords wants to give her a stonking great majority in the ensuing General Election (and a de facto mandate to reform the upper house), let them.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Labour's big attack has been on the NHS

    Good to see them trying out new and untested campaign techniques.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

    I disagree. The Commons could probably be won, but it ties up the whole thing in pointless delay. The Lords would seek to delay or stop the A50 bill - just like all the other times they have been activist over things they disagree with.

    A50 has to be invoked early next year. Parliament can then discuss what they want after that.

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181

    Theresa May tells the 27 EU members she will not rubber stamp EU decisions at meetings the UK are not present at.

    The arrogance of the 27 who think they can exclude us while we are still full members and paying in have come up against a UK leader who will not be a walk over. Well done Theresa

    27 countries defending their collective interests is "arrogance". 1 country trying to lecture the other 27 is plucky Britain standing up for itself... Sheesh, you still don't get the fact that Mrs May is massively mishandling this do you? The appointment of the three Brexiteers has not gone down too well elsewhere and the "Citizen of Nowhere" speech has not gone down too well with a very large number of people in the UK. The City is furious. Billions of Pounds just walked out the door and several million jobs are now at risk as inward investment evaporates. Meanwhile the UK housing market is one step from the abyss, to be followed in short order by another banking crisis. Even the offshore billionaires that control most of the U.K. Press are going to toil to gloss over the earthquake that is coming. Still, good thing you took your country back, hope it goes well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
    But he could force her to table a formal No Confidence vote in her own Government - which,in turn, could lead to the constitutional uncertainty discussed here a few days ago.
    He doesn't need to. If the Article 50 Enabling Bill is a vote of confidence, they either pass it (job done), or she goes to the country, and gets a mega majority off the back of the Lords (and Labour) trying to subvert the will of the people.

    The Lords would not be able to block it post GE, as it would have been in the manifesto.
  • The posters are mainly in Witney. Go round the villages and they are absent. I suspect all the organisers have focused on Witney as both operationally easier and probably the key area for floaters

    Lots of Lib Dem posters in their strongholds of Woodstock and Charlbury, and nearby - famously Cameron's village shop in Chadlington is displaying an LD poster. Conservative posters on trees and in hedges as per usual.

    LDs have been advertising on Facebook - I've had a few promoted items appear in my feed. Mostly leaflets though, yes.

    Labour will do respectably in Witney town and Chipping Norton but bomb elsewhere. I'm expecting 1 Con, 2 LD, 3 Lab, toss-up between Green and UKIP for 4th. It wouldn't astonish me if UKIP dropped to 5th.
    Agree - UKIP could come fifth. They have had one street stall and only a fraction of their usual posters. Sympathetic landowners may have reverted to Tory
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mrs May makes it a vote of confidence. The Labour peers dare not stop a Bill that would result in an absolute massacring of their party in the ensuing general.

    Also, remember that even LibDems such as Vince Cable and Paddy Ashdown have said the vote must be respected.

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.
    Not just that, with the new wording in the FTPA there is no "vote of confidence in the government's policy of X" any more, a vote of confidence is now a stand alone motion, so it's perfectly possible for an opposition to reject the substantive motion X and the pass the confidence motion immediately afterwards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    But even in those circumstances May would require Corbyn's co-operation re-the timing of an election. He could still frustrate her plans for at least a few weeks.

    So, he could delay the invocation of Article 50 (which, by the way, he supports) for a couple of weeks, at the expense of seeing himself lose half his seats.

    The Lords would not delay an Article 50 Bill; nor would the Commons. She would either have a fabulous mandate, or a large majority.

    Instead, she's made a point of principle out of something she'd win by a mile anyway.

    Not only does it make it clear how weak she is, but it also endangers Brexit. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

    I disagree. The Commons could probably be won, but it ties up the whole thing in pointless delay. The Lords would seek to delay or stop the A50 bill - just like all the other times they have been activist over things they disagree with.

    A50 has to be invoked early next year. Parliament can then discuss what they want after that.

    The Article 50 Enabling Bill can happen NOW. It can be next week in the Commons. Indeed, the sooner the better. It would ENABLE the executive to invoke it when they wished.

    Labour MPs in Leave constituencies would have to vote in favour, or risk being unseated at the subsequent GE by UKIP.

    There is no delay. There is only the added strength of a 550-100 victory.
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