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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The by-election thread with Witney the main focus

This was a by-election that appeared so boring when Cameron stepped down as an MP that Shadsy of Ladbroke opened the betting with the Tories at 1/500. This meant a £1,000 winning bet would have produced a profit of just £2.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First. Like the LibDems are hoping for, but will be disappointed.

Scrapheap_as_was

Bosh bosh bosh

PClipp

Second, like the Tory candidate in Witney.

TheScreamingEagles

Front page of The Times looks interesting for us punters, as the government cracks down on gambling companies.

Looks like they are stopping the cancelling of bets/palpable error excuses among other things AND the closing of accounts/stake restrictions.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/789214781739761664

AlastairMeeks

I'm hoping for a triple payout: buy Lib Dems at 25, buy Tories at 45, Labour at 10-15. Shadsy's prediction would suit me nicely.

IanB2

Consolation for UKIP if they hold their deposit as Ladbrokes forecast

AlastairMeeks

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

TheScreamingEagles

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

rcs1000

Everyone seems to be largely copying my Witney forecast from a week ago...

rcs1000

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

The Carlson effect.

TheScreamingEagles

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

Doesn't matter, Dave had a huge personal vote.

AndyJS

FPT:

My final prediction for Witney: (posted just before 10pm)

Con 51.3 (-8.9)
LD 27.6 (+20.9)
Lab 10.2 (-7.0)
Green 4.9 (-0.2)
UKIP 4.5 (-4.7)
Others 1.6 (-0.1)

Turnout 55.1 (-18.2)

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

so you spoke to a bloke who cant think for himself

can I have his name Id like to sell him some metalwork

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

Doesn't matter, Dave had a huge personal vote.

In 2015, yes. But there is little evidence of a local effect in the referendum. The west London-Oxford-Bristol corridor leaned toward remain, as most of us would have expected, and Witney (west ox) doesn't appear to be an outlier.

Cookie

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

Oh honestly Scotland. Do what you want. We really don't care that much.

Pfft. Scotland will be independent at some point in the next 15 years anyway. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else. Good luck to them.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

so you spoke to a bloke who cant think for himself

can I have his name Id like to sell him some metalwork

No, he was telling me that I shouldn't see a significant fall in the Tory share of the vote tonight as more evidence that Theresa May is crap.

rcs1000

AndyJS said:

FPT:

My final prediction for Witney: (posted just before 10pm)

Con 51.3 (-8.9)
LD 27.6 (+20.9)
Lab 10.2 (-7.0)
Green 4.9 (-0.2)
UKIP 4.5 (-4.7)
Others 1.6 (-0.1)

Turnout 55.1 (-18.2)

That sounds very reasonable

foxinsoxuk

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

Oh honestly Scotland. Do what you want. We really don't care that much.

Pfft. Scotland will be independent at some point in the next 15 years anyway. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else. Good luck to them.

No bad consequence of Brexit is to be owned, The end of the UK is like the slide in Sterling, nothing to do with us gov.

AlastairMeeks

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

I've linked to a tweet following up from a thread header where I noted that Westminster standing in the way of a referendum would play badly in Scotland. That tweet shows a unionist paper alienated by Westminster standing in the way of a referendum. I apologise for being right.

Artist

I think bookmakers are within their rights to restrict stakes on winning customers and any attempt to regulate it will just lead to a reduction in quality of markets on offer to everybody. Bookmakers not allowing a customer to withdraw/ridiculous turnover rules for bonuses and not paying out on winning bets should all be clamped down on.

Luckyguy1983

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

JonathanD

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

Doesn't matter, Dave had a huge personal vote.

Cameron has tweeted once today - and it was about his work with National Citizens Service, rather than the bye-election. I suspect the smaller the Tory majority, the larger his smile.

TheScreamingEagles

JonathanD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did chat to someone earlier on this evening about Witney voting Remain, he said that was purely down to Dave, had he backed Leave, Witney would have also voted Leave.

Except for the minor detail that the neighbouring areas were mostly similar

Doesn't matter, Dave had a huge personal vote.

Cameron has tweeted once today - and it was about his work with National Citizens Service, rather than the bye-election. I suspect the smaller the Tory majority, the larger his smile.

He wants to win, he's campaigned a lot in the by-election

dellertronic

No need for another referendum... Sturgeon's promise to leave the UK was a big part of the leave vote. England wants independence from Europe and Scotland.

El_Capitano

TheScreamingEagles said:

He wants to win, he's campaigned a lot in the by-election

Not sure about that. He's done the odd walkabout but I don't think there's been any significant canvassing, certainly nowhere I've been.

foxinsoxuk

Ken Clarke in Hartlepool for QT.

Should be good.

Jobabob

Scotland should go for it.

London should join them, if only it were possible.

AlastairMeeks

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

I've linked to a tweet following up from a thread header where I noted that Westminster standing in the way of a referendum would play badly in Scotland. That tweet shows a unionist paper alienated by Westminster standing in the way of a referendum. I apologise for being right.

Your agenda is clear. You have some deep, eerie personal interest in non-Brexit. Anything that succours your cause will be cited. Enuff. Have a Hobnob.

Well done! That's the type of biscuit-based agenda that all right-thinking Leavers are pushing today.

Gardenwalker

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

Remainers fear economic and constitutional disintegration. So they keep banging on about that.

Brexiters fear Brexit not actually happening. So they keep banging on about "Remoaners" and treachery.

Whatever happened to the sunny, go-ahead, open-for-business Britain that was supposed to emerge?

williamglenn

foxinsoxuk said:

Ken Clarke in Hartlepool for QT.

Should be good.

And Conrad Black!

FrancisUrquhart

Expected time for result?

AlastairMeeks

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

Remainers fear economic and constitutional disintegration. So they keep banging on about that.

Brexiters fear Brexit not actually happening. So they keep banging on about "Remoaners" and treachery.

Whatever happened to the sunny, go-ahead, open-for-business Britain that was supposed to emerge?

It's jam tomorrow. Literally.

dr_spyn

Matt Singh has posted on Twitter declaration at Witney c. 3.00 am.

Richard_Nabavi

I have no local knowledge of Witney at all, but I have a suspicion that the LibDems are going to be disappointed with the result and that they will do less well than Shadsy is suggesting. We've heard a hell of a lot about how much effort the LibDems are putting in, but not much to indicate that the good citizens of Witney are playing ball.

I might be completely wrong, of course!

Jonathan

SeanT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

To be fair, not many Remainers are like that. Most Remainers here and elsewhere are patriots (like my friend today who has accepted the verdict, and just wants to crack on). But there is a small hardcore who are absolutely traitorous.

There is possibly a smattering of these fuckers on here.

There are fuckers on each side of the argument.

JonathanD

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

Oh honestly Scotland. Do what you want. We really don't care that much.

Pfft. Scotland will be independent at some point in the next 15 years anyway. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else. Good luck to them.

No bad consequence of Brexit is to be owned, The end of the UK is like the slide in Sterling, nothing to do with us gov.

During the Referendum, Leave were proud to proclaim their Little Englander-ness. It's unsurprising that the rest of the UK has taken them at their word.

Cookie

SeanT said:

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

Oh honestly Scotland. Do what you want. We really don't care that much.

Pfft. Scotland will be independent at some point in the next 15 years anyway. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else. Good luck to them.

FWIW I don't think Scotland will ever go indy in our lifetimes.

St Theresa will stop the next referendum in 2018. By the time the third chance comes around - 2021? 2028? the UK will have quit the EU and the idea of leaving the UK to join the euro, Schengen, and a Federal Europe will seem absurd.

Is my guess.

Well, fair enough. My guess is that from now on, any time Scottish opinion is different from UK opinion on any subject of any significance - which will happen roughly once a year - it will be cited as a reason to go. And in this climate, eventually, go they sometime will. And who knows, maybe both countries will do better as a result.
I'm no Scotiaphobe. My mother is Scottish, my grandmother was very Scottish indeed. My first childhood holidays were to Scotland. It is somewhere that makes me happy. I like that I can get there in two hours. But none of this will be any less true should the country I live in no longer be in a political union with Scotland. And I don't think a political union can survive a situation where one party thinks no disagreement can be allowed between majority opinion in once constituent country and majority opinion in the other.

But that's my guess, and as a guess it is no more informed than yours. We shall see.

AlastairMeeks

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

To be fair, not many Remainers are like that. Most Remainers here and elsewhere are patriots (like my friend today who has accepted the verdict, and just wants to crack on). But there is a small hardcore who are absolutely traitorous.

There is possibly a smattering of these fuckers on here.

There are fuckers on each side of the argument.

I'm aware of only one poster on pb that has wished others dead.

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have no local knowledge of Witney at all, but I have a suspicion that the LibDems are going to be disappointed with the result and that they will do less well than Shadsy is suggesting. We've heard a hell of a lot about how much effort the LibDems are putting in, but not much to indicate that the good citizens of Witney are playing ball.

I might be completely wrong, of course!

The electoral history of Witney is quite varied. Worth a look on Wikipedia. There is a sizeable, but hopelessly divided anti Tory vote that can't make up its mind.

Luckyguy1983

Gardenwalker said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

Remainers fear economic and constitutional disintegration. So they keep banging on about that.

Brexiters fear Brexit not actually happening. So they keep banging on about "Remoaners" and treachery.

Whatever happened to the sunny, go-ahead, open-for-business Britain that was supposed to emerge?

No they don't - they fear economic and cultural disintegration not happening. That's worst case Remainer scenario.

ToryJim

Just caught Michelle Obama's speech in Arizona. She's on fire! In fact her messaging was subtly retuned, I get the impression that the Clinton campaign is going to up the tempo now. I think they are making a serious play in AZ. You get the impression that they've had a game plan and have executed it ruthlessly. I'm wondering if a blowout is more plausible than is given credence.

TheScreamingEagles

Surely the biggest failure of the night will be by Labour.

Tony Blair had a Labour MP in Witney, now Shadsy is predicting them not far off single digits.

AlastairMeeks

ToryJim said:

Just caught Michelle Obama's speech in Arizona. She's on fire! In fact her messaging was subtly retuned, I get the impression that the Clinton campaign is going to up the tempo now. I think they are making a serious play in AZ. You get the impression that they've had a game plan and have executed it ruthlessly. I'm wondering if a blowout is more plausible than is given credence.

It's clear that Hillary Clinton is thinking not just about winning but about governing.

Alanbrooke

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

rcs1000

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Richard_Nabavi

On more substantive matters, I see that SPIN have finally got their ECV spread up again, with Clinton at 319-329. That looks a Buy to me, so I've bought.

Do you own research, you might lose your shirt, etc etc

YellowSubmarine

Clearly the main Unionist tabloid in Scotland showing a bit of leg to independence is highly relavent to a Political Betting site. Especially when posted by someone who has recent posted on the topic. And for anyone who had actually read Alastair's piece he argued Sturgeon should go for it because if the longer term challenges to independence. This is probably as good as it gets for Nationalists. As it happens I've changed my own mind on this. Any Brexit let alone a hard be makes independence harder. So ridding the grevience of a Brexit the Score voted against then going before the unifying effects of Brexit happen is probably the least worst option for Nationalists.

Newspapers will always reflect a bit of what their readers want to hear. The Record s just reflecting elements of the Zeitgeist here.

Jonathan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely the biggest failure of the night will be by Labour.

Tony Blair had a Labour MP in Witney, now Shadsy is predicting them not far off single digits.

Spinning here.

Pulpstar

Conservatives now unbackable on Betfair.

Went out to 1.08 at one point (1.06 highest I bought at)

Alanbrooke

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Border controls

RobD

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely the biggest failure of the night will be by Labour.

Tony Blair had a Labour MP in Witney, now Shadsy is predicting them not far off single digits.

Spinning here.

TSE just being a cheeky bugger, as usual

ToryJim

AlastairMeeks said:

ToryJim said:

Just caught Michelle Obama's speech in Arizona. She's on fire! In fact her messaging was subtly retuned, I get the impression that the Clinton campaign is going to up the tempo now. I think they are making a serious play in AZ. You get the impression that they've had a game plan and have executed it ruthlessly. I'm wondering if a blowout is more plausible than is given credence.

It's clear that Hillary Clinton is thinking not just about winning but about governing.

That too, but I think too often Hillary is dismissed as a not very good politician and I think this campaign maybe gives the lie to that.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Border controls which, it goes without saying, we have.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

On more substantive matters, I see that SPIN have finally got their ECV spread up again, with Clinton at 319-329. That looks a Buy to me, so I've bought.

Do you own research, you might lose your shirt, etc etc

Yeah I bought earlier on as well.

At least we'll be in the same boat.

foxinsoxuk

ToryJim said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ToryJim said:

Just caught Michelle Obama's speech in Arizona. She's on fire! In fact her messaging was subtly retuned, I get the impression that the Clinton campaign is going to up the tempo now. I think they are making a serious play in AZ. You get the impression that they've had a game plan and have executed it ruthlessly. I'm wondering if a blowout is more plausible than is given credence.

It's clear that Hillary Clinton is thinking not just about winning but about governing.

That too, but I think too often Hillary is dismissed as a not very good politician and I think this campaign maybe gives the lie to that.

She has no charisma, but charisma is overrated.

TheScreamingEagles

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely the biggest failure of the night will be by Labour.

Tony Blair had a Labour MP in Witney, now Shadsy is predicting them not far off single digits.

Spinning here.

I enjoy winding up the Corbynistas on Twitter.

Luckyguy1983

The thing is with Trump/Hillary - they're making it all so personal. They're ramping up how repellent Trump is as a character, but the reality is, like leaving the EU, there are only two alternatives. People can either vote Trump (or Leave). or they can endorse the status quo. There's no middle way. Trump can't really be seen as an individual in that sense - it's a movement he's found himself at the top of.

Alanbrooke

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Border controls which, it goes without saying, we have.

But Schenegn doesnt, and where it appears the basis of controls differ.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Border controls which, it goes without saying, we have.

Yes, that confused me.

rcs1000

Alanbrooke said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Merkel demands continuation of border controls she wouldnt give Cameron, because it suits Germany.

One rule for germany another for everyone else.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/eu-gipfel-merkel-verhindert-zeichen-gegen-grenzkontrollen-14491069.html

Border controls? Or restrictions on benefits?

Border controls which, it goes without saying, we have.

But Schenegn doesnt, and where it appears the basis of controls differ.

But the treaties explicitly contain provisions for suspension.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/politico/status/789226507579326464

AlastairMeeks

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

You actually want the break-up of the UK, JUST so you can be proved right on Brexit.

You are fairly despicable.

A lot of them do. They're actually insane. It's like Leavers losing and WANTING rapid Turkey accession, a tidal wave of migration, and for Britain to get royally rogered in every EU decision from then on. That would be unthinkable for me. Were we to remain, my desire would be for a strong UK Government that would make the best of it. Because I actually LIKE this country.

To be fair, not many Remainers are like that. Most Remainers here and elsewhere are patriots (like my friend today who has accepted the verdict, and just wants to crack on). But there is a small hardcore who are absolutely traitorous.

There is possibly a smattering of these fuckers on here.

There are fuckers on each side of the argument.

I'm aware of only one poster on pb that has wished others dead.

Citation required

You'll have to wait for the morning. I have other calls on my time now.

Unless you're asking me to prove the negative half of the assertion? That would take much longer.

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/789226507579326464

Stepping back to focus on Watergate x1000?

Jobabob

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/789226507579326464

Stepping back to focus on Watergate x1000?

Wrong again.

It's WTF Watergate x 1,000,000.

Do keep up.

Paristonda

SeanT said:

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

With reference to the idea of indyref2:

https://twitter.com/daily_record/status/789217126590578688

Oh honestly Scotland. Do what you want. We really don't care that much.

Pfft. Scotland will be independent at some point in the next 15 years anyway. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else. Good luck to them.

FWIW I don't think Scotland will ever go indy in our lifetimes.

St Theresa will stop the next referendum in 2018. By the time the third chance comes around - 2021? 2028? the UK will have quit the EU and the idea of leaving the UK to join the euro, Schengen, and a Federal Europe will seem absurd.

Is my guess.

Once the Brexit moment passes and we are all out of the EU, you may expect to see a more eurosceptic SNP trying to win independence, after all 30% of their supporters voted leave. So joining EEA at best, but they won't make re-joining the EU part of the platform. the SNP will just use whatever event suits them at the time to help the cause.

If brexit doesn't lead to sindy, a tory landslide in 2020 may well shift enough remaining SLAB voters over to independence that it gets them over the line.

Scott_P

@britainelects: Counting well underway for Batley & Span; verification for Witney also in progress. Low turnouts as per expected.

Jonathan

https://youtu.be/vZnlz-b2NnY

YellowSubmarine

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Clearly the main Unionist tabloid in Scotland showing a bit of leg to independence is highly relavent to a Political Betting site. Especially when posted by someone who has recent posted on the topic. And for anyone who had actually read Alastair's piece he argued Sturgeon should go for it because if the longer term challenges to independence. Thus is probably as good as it gets for Nationalists. As it happens I've changed my own mind on this. Any Brexit let alone a hard be makes independence harder. So riddingbthe grevience of a Brexit the Score voted against then going before the unifying effects of Brexit happen is probably the least worst option for Nationalists.

Newspapers will always reflect a bit of what their readers want to hear. The Record s just reflecting elements of the Zeitgeist here.

TMay knows this, and will disallow a referendum, and the majority of Scots who don't want a vote will breathe a quiet sigh of relief, even as many of them protest too much

Well now you are making Alastair's point for him. Cameron's Edinburgh Agreement should have said how long the 2014 vote settled things for. It didn't because he never thought it would be close ( sound familiar ) so we are left with worthless promises of a " generation " and wonkery like " material change of circumstances " which have clearly now been fulfilled.

So Alistair is right. May could plausibly say " Tough. Westminster is Soveriegn on this. You can't have another vote within 5 years because of the greater good. Brexit + #indyref2 would be anarchy. " And Constitutionally she's be right. But politically.... It's basic human psychology to want something you can't have more because an authority figure says you can't have it. Sturgeon clearly understood why they let in 2014 and was playing a long game. Now Brexit has blown up the long game and made the short game the only game in town. She's playing her cards accordingly.

glw

foxinsoxuk said:

No bad consequence of Brexit is to be owned, The end of the UK is like the slide in Sterling, nothing to do with us gov.

Do you really think it's down to Brexit? It seems to me the SNP would have found a reason no matter what the result, and if the second referendum fails they'll look for another reason.

Brexit is convenient for the SNP, but if Remain had won the SNP would still be looking for a reason for IndyRef 2. In fact any time the SNP is in power they'll be looking. The only thing that will take Independence off the table is another party governing Scotland, and that doesn't look likely any time soon.

Mortimer

Wow. Angela Rayner is in the shadow cabinet.

Wow.

nunu

Luckyguy1983 said:

The thing is with Trump/Hillary - they're making it all so personal. They're ramping up how repellent Trump is as a character, but the reality is, like leaving the EU, there are only two alternatives. People can either vote Trump (or Leave). or they can endorse the status quo. There's no middle way. Trump can't really be seen as an individual in that sense - it's a movement he's found himself at the top of.

Except it's not a movement. He got a million fewer votes than her in the primaries, has the same number of people making donations to his campaign as her (2.6million donaters each) his voters are WEALTHIER than the avreage american (earn $70,000), and despite the hype has about the same number of people at their rallies. Oh and is polling worse with whites than Romney. There has been a myth that he has created some movement.

TheScreamingEagles

YellowSubmarine said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Clearly the main Unionist tabloid in Scotland showing a bit of leg to independence is highly relavent to a Political Betting site. Especially when posted by someone who has recent posted on the topic. And for anyone who had actually read Alastair's piece he argued Sturgeon should go for it because if the longer term challenges to independence. Thus is probably as good as it gets for Nationalists. As it happens I've changed my own mind on this. Any Brexit let alone a hard be makes independence harder. So riddingbthe grevience of a Brexit the Score voted against then going before the unifying effects of Brexit happen is probably the least worst option for Nationalists.

Newspapers will always reflect a bit of what their readers want to hear. The Record s just reflecting elements of the Zeitgeist here.

TMay knows this, and will disallow a referendum, and the majority of Scots who don't want a vote will breathe a quiet sigh of relief, even as many of them protest too much

Well now you are making Alastair's point for him. Cameron's Edinburgh Agreement should have said how long the 2014 vote settled things for. It didn't because he never thought it would be close ( sound familiar ) so we are left with worthless promises of a " generation " and wonkery like " material change of circumstances " which have clearly now been fulfilled.

So Alistair is right. May could plausibly say " Tough. Westminster is Soveriegn on this. You can't have another vote within 5 years because of the greater good. Brexit + #indyref2 would be anarchy. " And Constitutionally she's be right. But politically.... It's basic human psychology to want something you can't have more because an authority figure says you can't have it. Sturgeon clearly understood why they let in 2014 and was playing a long game. Now Brexit has blown up the long game and made the short game the only game in town. She's playing her cards accordingly.

That's not actually not true.

The reason the Government in consultation with Labour didn't want to put a time limit on how long the 2014 referendum settled things for was it would have played into the SNP's hands, they would have framed it as 'It's now or never' and gotten a boost.

TheScreamingEagles

@britainelects: Conservative HOLD Central Sandhurst (Bracknell Forest).

TheScreamingEagles

Central Sandhurst (Bracknell Forest) result:
CON: 69.3% (+6.3)
LAB: 30.7% (+10.5)
LDem didn't stand this time round.

Jobabob

May is the sweet side of bonkers if she thinks telling the Scots what to do will end well.

It really is as simple as that.

MarqueeMark

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

Mortimer

Glad to hear the people of Hartlepool are standing up for Brexit.

Anyone who thinks Labour can go on not having a firm line on Leaving and still exist in 2025 needs to watch QT.

TheScreamingEagles

Plaid Cymru GAIN Blaengwrach (Neath Port Talbot) from Labour.

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

Soft Brexiteers too. The Bitter Enders are in the driving seat.

It is the inevitable default option. Get on with it!

glw

Cookie said:

My guess is that from now on, any time Scottish opinion is different from UK opinion on any subject of any significance - which will happen roughly once a year - it will be cited as a reason to go. And in this climate, eventually, go they sometime will.

I concur, I watched some of the SNP conference, poisonous nonsense would be my summary of it. It honestly made Labour look reasonable.

The only way the UK government can avoid giving the SNP cause for a referendum would be to in effect give the Scottish government a veto over everything. That can't happen, therefore the SNP will be able to find endless justifications for independence referendums.

MarkSenior

Plaid Gain from Labour Blaengwrach on Neath Port Talbot BC

YellowSubmarine

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Clearly the main Unionist tabloid in Scotland showing a bit of leg to independence is highly relavent to a Political Betting site. Especially when posted by someone who has recent posted on the topic. And for anyone who had actually read Alastair's piece he argued Sturgeon should go for it because if the longer term challenges to independence. Thus is probably as good as it gets for Nationalists. As it happens I've changed my own mind on this. Any Brexit let alone a hard be makes independence harder. So riddingbthe grevience of a Brexit the Score voted against then going before the unifying effects of Brexit happen is probably the least worst option for Nationalists.

Newspapers will always reflect a bit of what their readers want to hear. The Record s just reflecting elements of the Zeitgeist here.

TMay knows this, and will disallow a referendum, and the majority of Scots who don't want a vote will breathe a quiet sigh of relief, even as many of them protest too much

Well now you are making Alastair's point for him. Cameron's Edinburgh Agreement should have said how long the 2014 vote settled things for. It didn't because he never thought it would be close ( sound familiar ) so we are left with worthless promises of a " generation " and wonkery like " material change of circumstances " which have clearly now been fulfilled.

So Alistair is right. May could plausibly say " Tough. Westminster is Soveriegn on this. You can't have another vote within 5 years because of the greater good. Brexit + #indyref2 would be anarchy. " And Constitutionally she's be right. But politically.... It's basic human psychology to want something you can't have more because an authority figure says you can't have it. Sturgeon clearly understood why they let in 2014 and was playing a long game. Now Brexit has blown up the long game and made the short game the only game in town. She's playing her cards accordingly.

That's not actually not true.

The reason the Government in consultation with Labour didn't want to put a time limit on how long the 2014 referendum settled things for was it would have played into the SNP's hands, they would have framed it as 'It's now or never' and gotten a boost.

Well that weakens the Unionist case further then. If no time scale was *deliberately* cited then what on earth have Westminster got to moan about ? The frequency of potential Border Polls is set out clearly in the Good Friday agreement. And Cameron let the Nationalists puck the date of #indyref as well as the preferred question. We need a UK Secession Act so it's clear what the Scots are voting to Remain in in #indyref2

Jobabob

nunu said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

The thing is with Trump/Hillary - they're making it all so personal. They're ramping up how repellent Trump is as a character, but the reality is, like leaving the EU, there are only two alternatives. People can either vote Trump (or Leave). or they can endorse the status quo. There's no middle way. Trump can't really be seen as an individual in that sense - it's a movement he's found himself at the top of.

Except it's not a movement. He got a million fewer votes than her in the primaries, has the same number of people making donations to his campaign as her (2.6million donaters each) his voters are WEALTHIER than the avreage american (earn $70,000), and despite the hype has about the same number of people at their rallies. Oh and is polling worse with whites than Romney. There has been a myth that he has created some movement.

Yes. Most Americans live good, happy lives. The idea that an antiglobalisation far-right insurgency is sweeping the nation is nonsense

Mortimer said:

Wow. Angela Rayner is in the shadow cabinet.

Wow.

Yes. It is stunning. Embarrassing.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Central Sandhurst (Bracknell Forest) result:
CON: 69.3% (+6.3)
LAB: 30.7% (+10.5)
LDem didn't stand this time round.

I'm sure the Tories would have been in third had they stood.

MarqueeMark

Mortimer said:

Glad to hear the people of Hartlepool are standing up for Brexit.

Anyone who thinks Labour can go on not having a firm line on Leaving and still exist in 2025 needs to watch QT.

Hartlepool Labour needs a fighter, not a quitter....

AndyJS

Sky News correspondent at Witney: no doubt Tories have won the seat. "Big Tory majority, LDs probably second."

Jobabob

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

Mortimer

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Central Sandhurst (Bracknell Forest) result:
CON: 69.3% (+6.3)
LAB: 30.7% (+10.5)
LDem didn't stand this time round.

I'm sure the Tories would have been in third had they stood.

I'm sure MarkWinningHereSenior would agree....

houndtang

All this arguing about Brexit is so distressing. If only there was a democratic way to settle this... some kind of mass public vote maybe?

Mortimer

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

It was the same in Hendon.

This is the new common ground of British politics.

Consequently, Labour are toast.

Paristonda

One point on a second scottish vote. The supposed risk with a second vote is that if it is lost, then the issue is resolved forever/generations. We don't actually have anything to support that other than a 'not-particularly-comparable' quebec vote. there's no actual empirical evidence that you get 2 strikes and out when it comes to independence referendums, it's just one of those things 'they' say.

Realistically, say there is a 2nd vote, and the SNP lose by a slightly smaller margin than last time. For the next couple of years, yes people will say that the issue has been sealed recently, but it will only take another trigger event of any kind for the SNP to use it to go for a 3rd vote, while arguing that demographics have shifted significantly since then.

bigjohnowls

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

Keir Starmer Hilary Benn no longer represent the working people of Hartlepool.

Labour needs to accept hard BREXIT or die.

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

My final prediction for Witney: (posted just before 10pm)

Con 51.3 (-8.9)
LD 27.6 (+20.9)
Lab 10.2 (-7.0)
Green 4.9 (-0.2)
UKIP 4.5 (-4.7)
Others 1.6 (-0.1)

Turnout 55.1 (-18.2)

That sounds very reasonable

Fingers crossed.

MarqueeMark

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

It's also a Labour town. What does Labour offer them?

Mortimer

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

Sky News correspondent at Witney: no doubt Tories have won the seat. "Big Tory majority, LDs probably second."

lol

'probably'

Imagine if they're third....

AndyJS

PClipp said:

Second, like the Tory candidate in Witney.

That was a joke, right?

AndyJS

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

Conrad Black wouldn't have got any applause in London I'm guessing.

Jobabob

MarqueeMark said:

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

It's also a Labour town. What does Labour offer them?

Nothing. Same as everyone else. Corbyn is useless and has destroyed the party, as I say every damned day.

NorvilleRogersIII

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Remaoners getting a kicking on QT from Hartlepool.

It's a very Brexit town - the audience are coming across as somewhat obsessive.

They could do with someone there to tell them which turns of phrase they are allowed to use and which ones should be banned.