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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yes Witney saw a sharp decline in turnout compared with GE2015 but it impacted on the parties differently

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FF43

First like in the Lib Dem bar charts

GeoffM

Second!

Philip_Thompson

Second place is just the first place loser.

FF43

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

nunu

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

AndyJS

Was today's 26% for Lab with YouGov their lowest share with any pollster for many years?

Morris_Dancer

That's a Lib Demtastic bar chart.

Jason

There was a time when the liberals would have swept up a seat like this, but I suppose if you're starting from an impossibly low bar, coming a distant second is a triumph to some. Let's see how the numbers stack up at the next GE.

GeoffM

Philip_Thompson said:

Second place is just the first place loser.

"If you are first you are first. If you are second, you are nothing."
—Bill Shankly

Gardenwalker

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

frpenkridge

This is a big effort - 2 graphs - to prove a point about a no-change by-election.

surbiton

"The popular narrative about Bregret was that many Leave voters had not really expected to win and voted to Leave out of protest or just to give the political elite a bloody nose. We can look at this using our wave 8 (daily campaign) question “How likely do you think it is that the UK will vote to leave the EU?” with answers given from 0-100. The figure below shows that there is some truth in this interpretation. For Leave voters the chance of regret decreased from about one in ten for those that thought they were certain to lose, to about one in twenty five for those who expected to win. Overall, 8% of Leave voters who expected to lose regretted voting to Leave – 2% more than the overall figure for Leave voters. "

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-britain-british-election-study-insights-from-the-post-eu-referendum-wave-of-the-bes-internet-panel/#.WApTRNj2bSe

SimonStClare

frpenkridge said:

This is a big effort - 2 graphs - to prove a point about a no-change by-election.

I guess throwing the kitchen sink at a mid term by election entitles the Lib Dems to some bragging rights, - but lets not forget it twas still 2nd place and imposible to match at a GE.

surbiton

Sleazy Tories and Brexiters on the slide !

surbiton

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

FrancisUrquhart

What's going on at London city airport?

"Dozens treated and two in hospital after 'chemical incident' closes London City Airport"

ThreeQuidder

So the non-Tory vote coalesced to a greater extent than 2015 around the LDs and a large part of the Tory vote stayed home for an unnecessary byelection caused by the resignation of a lying toerag.

Philip_Thompson

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

The Walloons are not a national parliament but even if it is more democratic, it is more in our control to make our own decisions with our own Parliament than a 34 faced pantomine horse.

rpjs

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

But Walloonia is a regional parliament. Yes it's democratic, but where does it end? Isle of Wight County Council getting a veto on the UK's trade agreements?

MTimT

FPT rottenborough said:

"Or we may end up in same situation. Gone from Single Market and no way back in thanks to a veto from Ruritania."


Indeed, that is a non-trivial risk. But it would be hard for any European parliament to argue that the deal the UK would get would make us more competitive, and hence more of a threat to their way of life, than our previous arrangement. Doesn't mean they wouldn't try, but it would not be true.

Probably the biggest risk to any free trade deal post Brexit is where arbitration would be done. Clearly a deal between the EU and UK could/should not use the ECJ.

But all of the above does not, for me, add up to doom and gloom about Brexit, quite the contrary. If the EU has got to the stage where it is unable to deliver additional free trade deals, whereas the rest of the world continues to make new deals, the relative benefits of being inside the single market are much reduced.

ThreeQuidder

surbiton said:

Brexiters on the slide !

Leave 46.3%
Con+UKIP 48.5%

Sliding upwards?

MTimT

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

But it is very bad for the EU's reputation as a good faith negotiating partner. I doubt others will be lining up to talk new deals unless the EU pulls this one back.

MTimT

Ref charts above. Straw-clutching.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/ldn_ambulance/status/789525580689661954

williamglenn

rpjs said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

But Walloonia is a regional parliament. Yes it's democratic, but where does it end? Isle of Wight County Council getting a veto on the UK's trade agreements?

Why not? The City of London does.

FF43

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

MTimT

williamglenn said:

rpjs said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

But Walloonia is a regional parliament. Yes it's democratic, but where does it end? Isle of Wight County Council getting a veto on the UK's trade agreements?

Why not? The City of London does.

Post Brexit vote, I am not sure they are confident that they do.

Exhibit A, Mr Meeks' reaction.

AndyJS

You couldn't make it up: a free trade deal between the EU and Canada has been scuppered by — wait for it — Wallonia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

Gardenwalker

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

The Walloons are not a national parliament but even if it is more democratic, it is more in our control to make our own decisions with our own Parliament than a 34 faced pantomine horse.

But if you accept a single market as a good thing, you need a means of democratic accountability if it to sign new trade deals.

If not a 34 faced pantomime horse, as you call it, then some kind of supranational parliament is needed.

Brexiters can't moan about Westminster being passed over if they are also to complain about a multi-parliamentary process.

Unless you:
A. are calling for no democratic oversight at all
B. are calling for supranational oversight
C. don't wish to have trade deals at all with our neighbours.

glw

MTimT said:

But it is very bad for the EU's reputation as a good faith negotiating partner. I doubt others will be lining up to talk new deals unless the EU pulls this one back.

CETA and TTIP do demonstrate that whatever benefits the UK gets from single market membership being in the EU is not necessarily good for wider trade. A parliament representing 3 million Walloons is blocking a deal with Canada when they will do hardly any business with them, the UK on the other hand has far more to lose. There is definitely some upside to leaving the EU.

MarqueeMark

I see the spokespeople for the Pointing At Potholes Party are enjoying their day.....

Gardenwalker

rpjs said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

But Walloonia is a regional parliament. Yes it's democratic, but where does it end? Isle of Wight County Council getting a veto on the UK's trade agreements?

There would be nothing to stop us requiring the Isle of Wight getting a veto. Each nation state has its own constitutional peculiarities. Presumably In Belgium trade is a devolved competence.

MarqueeMark

AndyJS said:

You couldn't make it up: a free trade deal between the EU and Canada has been scuppered by — wait for it — Wallonia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

Shhhh - you'll give Nicola Sturgeon ideas.......

MTimT

glw said:

MTimT said:

But it is very bad for the EU's reputation as a good faith negotiating partner. I doubt others will be lining up to talk new deals unless the EU pulls this one back.

CETA and TTIP do demonstrate that whatever benefits the UK gets from single market membership being in the EU is not necessarily good for wider trade. A parliament representing 3 million Walloons is blocking a deal with Canada when they will do hardly any business with them, the UK on the other hand has far more to lose. There is definitely some upside to leaving the EU.

Indeed. The UK should IMO prioritize trade deals with the Old Commonwealth and the large agricultural exporters. Reducing the tariffs on food and commodities would go a long way to offsetting inflation due to the correction in sterling, particularly in relation to the impact on poorer families.

We should be wary about prioritizing the US, as I fear a US-UK deal might end up way too one-sided.

williamglenn

FF43 said:

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

Quite. Joining the WTO is normally a very long process. Of all the blind assumptions of the Brexit mob, the idea that the worst case outcome in terms of trade after a hard Brexit is WTO status is perhaps the most dangerous. Brexit comes in still harder varieties.

FF43

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

MTimT

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

MikeK

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/789518132243271680

AndyJS

Average of the last 4 opinion polls:

Con 43.5%
Lab 27.3%
UKIP 10.0%
LD 8.0%
Greens 4.5%

Baxtered: Con maj 112

http://bit.ly/2erI5yB

Philip_Thompson

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

The Walloons are not a national parliament but even if it is more democratic, it is more in our control to make our own decisions with our own Parliament than a 34 faced pantomine horse.

But if you accept a single market as a good thing, you need a means of democratic accountability if it to sign new trade deals.

If not a 34 faced pantomime horse, as you call it, then some kind of supranational parliament is needed.

Brexiters can't moan about Westminster being passed over if they are also to complain about a multi-parliamentary process.

Unless you:
A. are calling for no democratic oversight at all
B. are calling for supranational oversight
C. don't wish to have trade deals at all with our neighbours.

D. You believe it is possible for our Parliament and the Canadian Parliament to ratify a deal without requiring unrelated third parties like Walloons to be involved too.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

Gardenwalker

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

The Walloons are not a national parliament but even if it is more democratic, it is more in our control to make our own decisions with our own Parliament than a 34 faced pantomine horse.

But if you accept a single market as a good thing, you need a means of democratic accountability if it to sign new trade deals.

If not a 34 faced pantomime horse, as you call it, then some kind of supranational parliament is needed.

Brexiters can't moan about Westminster being passed over if they are also to complain about a multi-parliamentary process.

Unless you:
A. are calling for no democratic oversight at all
B. are calling for supranational oversight
C. don't wish to have trade deals at all with our neighbours.

D. You believe it is possible for our Parliament and the Canadian Parliament to ratify a deal without requiring unrelated third parties like Walloons to be involved too.

So that's a C then.

MrsB

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

nunu

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

TheWhiteRabbit

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

What are the 2016 figures?

Pulpstar

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

MrsB

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

What are the 2016 figures?

most recent figures are 2015 http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

MP_SE

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

Quite. Joining the WTO is normally a very long process. Of all the blind assumptions of the Brexit mob, the idea that the worst case outcome in terms of trade after a hard Brexit is WTO status is perhaps the most dangerous. Brexit comes in still harder varieties.

There would be no accession process required for the UK as they are already a full member of the WTO...

After the UK leaves the EU they will remain a full member of the WTO.

AndyJS

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

MrsB

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

JackW

National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 2,127 - 17-20 Oct

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

National - ARG - Sample 1,006 - 17-20 Oct

Clinton 49 .. Trump 42

Via 538

williamglenn

MP_SE said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

Quite. Joining the WTO is normally a very long process. Of all the blind assumptions of the Brexit mob, the idea that the worst case outcome in terms of trade after a hard Brexit is WTO status is perhaps the most dangerous. Brexit comes in still harder varieties.

There would be no accession process required for the UK as they are already a full member of the WTO...

After the UK leaves the EU they will remain a full member of the WTO.

That's not what the WTO says.

https://www.ft.com/content/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d

Pulpstar

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

Dems have actually pulled resources from trying to beat him. Madness.

JackW

Florida - Opinion Savvy/Fox13 - Sample 538 - 20 Oct

Clinton 49 .. Trump 45

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

MP_SE

williamglenn said:

MP_SE said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

Quite. Joining the WTO is normally a very long process. Of all the blind assumptions of the Brexit mob, the idea that the worst case outcome in terms of trade after a hard Brexit is WTO status is perhaps the most dangerous. Brexit comes in still harder varieties.

There would be no accession process required for the UK as they are already a full member of the WTO...

After the UK leaves the EU they will remain a full member of the WTO.

That's not what the WTO says.

https://www.ft.com/content/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d

Roberto Azevedo was misinterpreted.

The UK is a full member:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/united_kingdom_e.htm

It is also not possible to expel or suspend members so the UK will definitely remain a full member post Brexit.

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

Philip_Thompson

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

The Walloons are not a national parliament but even if it is more democratic, it is more in our control to make our own decisions with our own Parliament than a 34 faced pantomine horse.

But if you accept a single market as a good thing, you need a means of democratic accountability if it to sign new trade deals.

If not a 34 faced pantomime horse, as you call it, then some kind of supranational parliament is needed.

Brexiters can't moan about Westminster being passed over if they are also to complain about a multi-parliamentary process.

Unless you:
A. are calling for no democratic oversight at all
B. are calling for supranational oversight
C. don't wish to have trade deals at all with our neighbours.

D. You believe it is possible for our Parliament and the Canadian Parliament to ratify a deal without requiring unrelated third parties like Walloons to be involved too.

So that's a C then.

No it's not. It's a statement that we can have a trade deal with Belgium without giving Walloons a veto on a separate and unrelated trade deal with Canada.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Weren't the DEMs ahead on mail ballots though ?

Dadge

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

ThreeQuidder

Dadge said:

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

Even after A50 is invoked, we remain full members of the EU with all the rights and obligations that entails. But if the rest of the EU wants to curtail our rights, I'm sure HMG would be happy to overlook our obligations...

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

SimonStClare

Dadge said:

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

The UK will remain a paid up member of the EU until two years after article 50 is initiated. It is only right that the UK participates fully in all aspects of the EU until that time. – Whether other countries take kindly to that or not is irrelevant.

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

Very few Americans *like* Hillary. Against David Cameron, she'd be Ed, but she's against Corbyn instead. They don't speak to competency, exactly, but personality.

MTimT

Remembering Aberfan, 50 years ago today. It was the first time that I really didn't understand the news - how could a mountain move - and had to have my parents explain it to me.

Wonderful touching tribute at http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/queens-personal-message-people-aberfan-12061242

MTimT

SimonStClare said:

Dadge said:

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

The UK will remain a paid up member of the EU until two years after article 50 is initiated. It is only right that the UK participates fully in all aspects of the EU until that time. – Whether other countries take kindly to that or not is irrelevant.

And we'd be negotiating treaties to come into effect only after leaving the EU.

PClipp

Jason said:

There was a time when the liberals would have swept up a seat like this, but I suppose if you're starting from an impossibly low bar, coming a distant second is a triumph to some. Let's see how the numbers stack up at the next GE.

The Tories are still enjoying a bonus from their years in Coalition, Mr Jason. They just need a little bit longer governing by themselves, and going from one disaster to another, and the Lib Dems will take any seat from them that you care to name.

williamglenn

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

Very few Americans *like* Hillary. Against David Cameron, she'd be Ed, but she's against Corbyn instead. They don't speak to competency, exactly, but personality.

It's too early to judge Hillary's Presidency. She could turn out to be a Gordon Brown who doesn't know what to do once she gets the job she's always coveted, but I have a feeling she won't be.

Mortimer

PClipp said:

Jason said:

There was a time when the liberals would have swept up a seat like this, but I suppose if you're starting from an impossibly low bar, coming a distant second is a triumph to some. Let's see how the numbers stack up at the next GE.

The Tories are still enjoying a bonus from their years in Coalition, Mr Jason. They just need a little bit longer governing by themselves, and going from one disaster to another, and the Lib Dems will take any seat from them that you care to name.

Oh good grief. What a load of guff.

For example, look at Poole.

Tory vote of more tan 50%.

Libs slipped back from 2nd to 4th in 2010.

UKIP share of 16.8%, most of which will be going Tory next time.

I can confidently assert that LDs will not win Poole in either of our lifetimes...

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

Very few Americans *like* Hillary. Against David Cameron, she'd be Ed, but she's against Corbyn instead. They don't speak to competency, exactly, but personality.

It's too early to judge Hillary's Presidency. She could turn out to be a Gordon Brown who doesn't know what to do once she gets the job she's always coveted, but I have a feeling she won't be.

True, four years is a long time in politics...

nunu

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

Very few Americans *like* Hillary. Against David Cameron, she'd be Ed, but she's against Corbyn instead. They don't speak to competency, exactly, but personality.

It's too early to judge Hillary's Presidency. She could turn out to be a Gordon Brown who doesn't know what to do once she gets the job she's always coveted, but I have a feeling she won't be.

True, four years is a long time in politics...

Thirty four is even longer.....

Big_G_NorthWales

SimonStClare said:

Dadge said:

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

The UK will remain a paid up member of the EU until two years after article 50 is initiated. It is only right that the UK participates fully in all aspects of the EU until that time. – Whether other countries take kindly to that or not is irrelevant.

Do we really care if the EU members do not take kindly to us. We need to be bigger than that and it seems that Theresa May understands it and will not be submissive to the EU

nunu

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

4h
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

JackW

Georgia - Opinion Savvy/Fox5 - Sample 570 - 20 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 50

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-GA-General-10.20.16.pdf

Big_G_NorthWales

MTimT said:

Remembering Aberfan, 50 years ago today. It was the first time that I really didn't understand the news - how could a mountain move - and had to have my parents explain it to me.

Wonderful touching tribute at http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/queens-personal-message-people-aberfan-12061242

My wife and I remember it as if it was yesterday as my wife was expecting our first child and the pictures were horrific. Our eldest son was born in St Asaph, North Wales just 8 days later.

Scrapheap_as_was

trolling charts...

genius

Sean_F

PClipp said:

Jason said:

There was a time when the liberals would have swept up a seat like this, but I suppose if you're starting from an impossibly low bar, coming a distant second is a triumph to some. Let's see how the numbers stack up at the next GE.

The Tories are still enjoying a bonus from their years in Coalition, Mr Jason. They just need a little bit longer governing by themselves, and going from one disaster to another, and the Lib Dems will take any seat from them that you care to name.

It's unlikely the Lib Dems will feature in any Con/Lab marginal, or working class/lower middle class Con seats for a long while.

Pulpstar

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

4h
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Dem -4.4 GOP -1.1Ind +5.5
White +8.4 Black -9.2 Other (Asian I guess) +0.8
Female +0.1 Male -0.5 Trans +0.4

FF43

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

4h
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Dem -4.4 GOP -1.1Ind +5.5
White +8.4 Black -9.2 Other (Asian I guess) +0.8
Female/Male ratios unchanged.

WE know that fewer registered Republicans are going to vote Trump, so although the demography has changed I am not sure the voter patterns have changed much. Of course Hillary was doing *better* in early voting, so there is a shift.

Sean_F

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

4h
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Senator Burr consistently polls better than Trump in the State. Those numbers may be encouraging for him, rather than Trump.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

If all 28 countries have to appeal to the lowest common denominator then you end up with this chaos.

Bilateral is the sensible way to go.

Pulpstar

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

I guess this is precisely why the EU is bringing in Majority voting. Can't have bloody Wallonia(*) scuppering the plans !

* I am 1/16th Walloon I think though ^^;

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ phone auto-correct is a bitch.

Reps were up in 2016 Postal voting but massively down compared to their 2012 response rate.

Alistair

I hope they finds the wankers responsible fro the DDOS on AnyDNS and give them a good slap.

nunu

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

4h
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Dem -4.4 GOP -1.1Ind +5.5
White +8.4 Black -9.2 Other (Asian I guess) +0.8
Female/Male ratios unchanged.

WE know that fewer registered Republicans are going to vote Trump, so although the demography has changed I am not sure the voter patterns have changed much. Of course Hillary was doing *better* in early voting, so there is a shift.

Yes and Trump is doing worse with whites than Romney and much worse with college educated whites which north Carolina has more of.

Fenster

MTimT said:

Remembering Aberfan, 50 years ago today. It was the first time that I really didn't understand the news - how could a mountain move - and had to have my parents explain it to me.

Wonderful touching tribute at http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/queens-personal-message-people-aberfan-12061242

My friend's mother was a young teacher at the school and was in the building that day. I see her regularly.

Must be an extraordinary thing to have had to live with. My Gramp worked for the NCB and helped with the rescue operation - he was in his early thirties and my mother - at the time - was a similar age to the children who died.

He never said much about it but I know the people who were there were scarred forever by it. Unimaginable tragedy - if you ever visit the remembrance graveyard the names and ages of all those children are hard to take in.

Gardenwalker

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

If all 28 countries have to appeal to the lowest common denominator then you end up with this chaos.

Bilateral is the sensible way to go.

My brother, who knows more about these things than me, says that the Walloons might have a point, and points me to this article:

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/42b62d96-95de-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b.html

Their objection is to the ISDS which allows corporates to sue governments for breach of treaty.

Given the rise of Trump, Farage, Le Pen et al - shouldn't we welcome an attempt to amend the less acceptable face of globalisation?

Gardenwalker

Alistair said:

I hope they finds the wankers responsible fro the DDOS on AnyDNS and give them a good slap.

For a period there, we had a DOS, a Russian carrier in the Channel, AND a "chemical incident" at City Airport.

Perhaps good that Twitter went down; it could have been happy hour for tin foilers.

Dadge

ThreeQuidder said:

Dadge said:

MTimT said:

Very good from the PM:

The Prime Minister made clear that she will ignore EU leaders by attempting to strike trade deals around the world before the country formally leaves the EU. Brussels leaders have demanded that Britain does not try to do any deals before Brexit, which is expected in 2019.

However, Mrs May said on Friday: "The UK has long been one of the strongest advocates on Europe for free trade and will continue to be so.

"Indeed I want the UK to become more active not less in making the case for free trade around the world. That means that while we remain a member of the EU the UK will continue to back the EU's free trade negotiations.

"And as we prepare to leave the EU, I've been clear that the UK is discussing our future trading relationship with third countries.

"This will not undermine the EU's trade agenda. It is not in competition with it. We will continue to help the EU reach these important trade agreements. It is about seizing the opportunities of Brexit. About forging an ambitious and optimistic new role for Britain in the world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/eu-is-impossible-to-do-deals-with-canada-says-sparking-fears-abo/

But she also just said that the UK will participate fully in the EU till we leave. That won't work. The other members won't take kindly to having the UK in the room with them discussing EU trade if at the same time we're discussing unilateral trade agreements with other countries. So the other EU members will, quite rightly, exclude us from any discussions where they feel the position is compromised.

Even after A50 is invoked, we remain full members of the EU with all the rights and obligations that entails. But if the rest of the EU wants to curtail our rights, I'm sure HMG would be happy to overlook our obligations...

But one of the obligations is not to do unilateral trade deals. Brexiters want to have their cake and eat it, but it ain't going to happen.

TheWhiteRabbit

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

If all 28 countries have to appeal to the lowest common denominator then you end up with this chaos.

Bilateral is the sensible way to go.

My brother, who knows more about these things than me, says that the Walloons might have a point, and points me to this article:

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/42b62d96-95de-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b.html

Their objection is to the ISDS which allows corporates to sue governments for breach of treaty.

Given the rise of Trump, Farage, Le Pen et al - shouldn't we welcome an attempt to amend the less acceptable face of globalisation?

The EU is an institution set up on the principle that an international treaty might need a properly empowered court to arbitrate!

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

MrsB said:

nunu said:

Looks like the early voting from North Carolina is not as good for Clinton as it first seems, black turnout way down and white up bigly.


First day of in-person voting in NC in 2012:
Dem 57.1, Rep 25.4
White 58.6, Black 37.0
Female 55.0 Male 44.0

22% of the population of North Caroline is black. Therefore for 37% of the votes to be black suggests black differential turnout is high. Similarly 51% of the population is female. For female voters to be at 55% suggests higher female differential turnout. Along with the higher proportion of Democrat votes, that all suggests good for Clinton.

Except those are Obama 2012 figures.

Oh, silly me, I thought they were this year's. Completely misread.

This years would be good to have to compare !

Oldnortstate.com is your friend: 67 white 28 black

Link doesn't seem to work

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ phone auto-correct is a bitch.

Reps were up in 2016 Postal voting but massively down compared to their 2012 response rate.

Seems tricky to glean much, a bit of a wash I'd say - no obvious slam dunk for either candidate.

FF43

MP_SE said:

williamglenn said:

MP_SE said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

surbiton said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Good. Arrangements with the UK could also be vetoed. We should start looking up the WTO rules.

You mean the WTO schedules that need to be negotiated? With the EU. And 160 other states.

Quite. Joining the WTO is normally a very long process. Of all the blind assumptions of the Brexit mob, the idea that the worst case outcome in terms of trade after a hard Brexit is WTO status is perhaps the most dangerous. Brexit comes in still harder varieties.

There would be no accession process required for the UK as they are already a full member of the WTO...

After the UK leaves the EU they will remain a full member of the WTO.

That's not what the WTO says.

https://www.ft.com/content/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d

Roberto Azevedo was misinterpreted.

The UK is a full member:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/united_kingdom_e.htm

It is also not possible to expel or suspend members so the UK will definitely remain a full member post Brexit.

The UK is a member of the WTO but its schedules which set the tariffs and rules for trade are held by the EU. You qualify for membership of the WTO when all 160 members agree your schedules.When we leave the EU we will be in the anomalous situation of being a member but unqualified for membership because we don't have any independent schedules. In practice these will have to be negotiated from scratch. We'll need to wrap it up quickly with people who are already inside the club and who will certainly take advantage of our weak negotiating position. And it won't just be the EU driving a hard bargain.

To my mind this is a more fraught issue than our EU treaty.

Dadge

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

Rubio tied in FL.
Rubio tied in a Florida poll for the first time since June
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf …

Was he previously behind or in front?

In front.

He was in a fight though!

I wonder if any of the 2016 spankees of the GOP will run again in 2020 (Assuming HRC wins of course)

I think Cruz - I mean lyin' Ted - will. His brand of conservative Republicanism would look better by comparison, if Trump does badly.

With the Supreme Court most likely decided in the Democrats favour, I can see the square root of diddly squat turning out to re-elect Hillary so Lyin' Ted might have a chance if he runs tbh.

Ted Cruz is an extremist candidate. He won't win, no matter the configuration of the Supreme Court.

Sean_F

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FF43 said:

Moses_ said:

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol

I wish the EU well, but they need to raise their game.

The Walloons will be "encouraged". This is all theatrics, and Namur is playing games for domestic show. Is it such a bad thing that trade deals go through national parliaments? It's not efficient, but it is democratic, isn't it?

Not really. The big advantage of the EU is that it is multilateral. If we have to deal with 28 separate European states where would be?

(Not an entirely rhetorical question -it's what's implied by the Brexit)

The EU doesn't disappear just because we leave, we deal with one EU Canada and the USA etc while confined within the EU we can't deal with anyone outside of it.

What I meant, but was in a rush to say it, is that Wallonia is acting like a brexiting Britain with the additional inconvenience to the EU of hanging around. If all 28 countries decide they would like to do things differently, or Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Dexit etc, you end up with chaos. Multilateral is the sensible way to go.

If all 28 countries have to appeal to the lowest common denominator then you end up with this chaos.

Bilateral is the sensible way to go.

My brother, who knows more about these things than me, says that the Walloons might have a point, and points me to this article:

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/42b62d96-95de-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b.html

Their objection is to the ISDS which allows corporates to sue governments for breach of treaty.

Given the rise of Trump, Farage, Le Pen et al - shouldn't we welcome an attempt to amend the less acceptable face of globalisation?

They have a point.