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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why are the Lib Dems partying like it’s 1993?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why are the Lib Dems partying like it’s 1993?
They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. So Talleyrand said of the Bourbons and so much the same might be said of the Lib Dems today. If there’s one thing that we should take from the Witney by-election campaigns, it was the extent to which 2010-15 are now for the Lib Dems non-years.
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Lib Dems,UKIP, Lib Dems, UKIP....Not sure I agree with the premise of the article Mr Herdson, the party of eight are hardly in a position to do much else, other than at a local level.
Clinton 45.5 .. Trump 37.0
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
Whilst it was always a long shot - ex PMs seat and Tories above 40% - the LDs are not going to return to winning ways sitting on their hands.
The lessons they learned and relearrned in Witney will be useful in future winnable by-elections.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-leaning-toward-hillary-clinton-in-florida/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
As such Witney was a success. They feel good about themselves for the first time in ages. I reckon they now believe they could win a more marginal seat.
http://www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/2018_westminster/initial_proposals/maps/Scotland.pdf
I suspect the 5% limit was drawn a little tight.....
Sporting Index Mid-Spreads:
Clinton 325 Trump 213
538.com Predictions:
Clinton 341 Trump 196
I agree. Witney is all very well - but it's a tactical advance. Keep going like this and they might be back in government in something like 2525.
What they need to do is position themselves as able to partner (whether through formal coalition or some less formal arragement) with either the Tories or Labour, and the pitch to the electorate is as a moderating influence on either.
There's never been a better time. For many centrists, the Tories are vulnerable on Brexit especially. There's an opportunity for the LDs to major on this with an explicit view to seek compromise from the Tories in a future coalition or other arrangement.
On the left, Labour look extreme on both the economy and national defence. Although a Labour government currently looks unlikely, there will still be votes for an LD party seeking to temper Labour's less appealing policies.
With a national strategy of "don't let the bastards get away with it, we can be a sane and honest broker with either", and focusing on key policies which expose Tory and Lbour weakness, they could get back into the 20s in terms of seats. As it is, I tend to agree with predictions that recovery will be limited to one or two only.
Like the grudge and grievance ridden SNP Government in Holyrood right now, I suspect that the Libdems will end up getting badly stung by putting the EU before the UK. In the early part of next year, the Government will finally trigger article 50 and give formal notice that the UK is leaving the EU. And the Libdems are in danger of finding themselves aligned with another anti Westminster party, the SNP and even some Labour MPs on the wrong side of the argument when the UK squares up to the EU at the negotiating table to get the best deal for the country. Expect even the most ardent of Remainers to come and show their backing for team UK as it tries to get the best Brexit deal possible.
To be seen to be siding with the EU over the UK's best interests could prove a very costly electoral mistake for the Libdems, SNP and those Labour MPs trying to pick an argument with the current Government.
Polarity is British politics middle name.
If the LDs had soft pedalled Witney and came third, they would be worse off.
You're right there has to be more to it, but I assert that this was a necessary precursor to recovery.
But really, do you think that anyone in the media will give a stuff next week about the Lib Dems' result in Witney?
But as Mr Herdson points out, unless they've got a clear steer for what 'this, this and this' are, they'll fall into exactly the same trap next time a coalition comes beckoning.....
I think you are agreeing with me.
Ground up campaigning and fighting hard for every seat at every level is the only place to start. The LDs will become the opposition to the Tory hegemony over most of Shire and suburban Britain, where Corbynism has little appeal.
The question of what to do in the reasonably likely situation of holding the balance of power with the SNP after the next election does need to be resolved. It is not going to be coalition with the Tories though.
FPT It worked until my train got into Bedford Last night (which is more than can be said for Thameslink)
However once I was in Bedford it then stopped working for most of the evening.
It was clearly a plot by OGHs pet lizards, who of course are controlled by MI5 and run the local internet, who were very embarrased about his comedy script on the Witney by election yesterday, to save face for OGH by stopping people from reading it.
Increasingly the Coalition is going to be seen as a golden era of good government, and the Tory government that followed as increasing poor. That is an easy prediction to make, partly because the wheels are coming off already, but mostly because that is the fate of all governments.
Basically, they need to time shift back 30 or more years. Back to a time when "prepare for Govt.!" was one of those easily derided, easily forgotten things the leader said annually at Conference. "Prepare for LOCAL Govt.!" on the other hand - that is something that can be delivered, without bending the Party all out of shape.
The LibDems are only any use when they have something to OPPOSE. And best when that is a national Govt., from up on the moral high ground. They should give up aspiration of being that party of national Govt. It doesn't suit them, It requires riding two or more horses in different directions and ultimately it pulls them apart. They are much better leaning on the fence, sucking air through their teeth and saying "I wouldn't do it like that....".
That way, they greatly reduce the risk of playing to their least attractive aspect - being the Party of Sanctimonious Bastards. Tuition fees, anyone?
They have an open goal to replace Labour as opposition in much of the country at the moment if they embrace orange book liberalism with a compassionate edge.
I cant help thinking they would have kept a good slew of their southern England seats if they hadnt been so negative about the coalition at the end and then got into a willy waving contest with labour at the election about how dreadful the tories are, turning off tory sympathisers for their candidates while not getting back the lab ones they lost by joining the coalition. A dreadful strategic error
May has a thin thin majority but behaves as if it is bigger; that can only end in tears.
Of all the political parties the Lib Dems are the one that's most defined by their leader. I found myself thinking that if only they had an Ashdown or a Clegg or a Thorpe or even a Steel this could be their moment (it was shortly after Brexit) but they haven't.
He was also a good bet at generating some attention by differentiating the LDs from Labour. This value perished when Labour elected Corbyn and essentially out bid the LibDems at that end of the market.
Meanwhile, in real politics ... we have one of the most extraordinary elections in American history for the most important political job in the world and political betting can't muster a thread.
Unfortunately Farron has sought to bridge this divide by publiclly embracing the coalicious position to add to his original Bobby Ewing one. So David Herdson puts his finger on. Yes Witney is good. The Lib Dems could have done nothing else but to go for. It's real progress. But it's also a bit like going back on the booze after an alcoholic breakdown. The deep dark place they need to go is the lack of a core vote based on philosophy and socioeconomic interests. It's only by building this that they can hold territory after gaining it. Instead there is the real danger we're back to what was called the Bandwagon in the Alliance days. Localist Byelection glory gained entirely by the dissatisfaction of others.
I said at the time the post Huhne Eastleigh Byelection was a ' victory from which they would never recover ' . Thankfully ( ? ) the Lib Dems have escaped a similar fate in Witney.
We are no longer much interested in Protest, we leave that to Labour. We want to form a Government, however long that takes.
How does an 'interationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?
We've been trying to reform it since before we joined - but its Third world impoverishing tariffs are very much in place - how 'internationalist' is that?
In 2010, they had a five year long term relationship, but it quickly turned sour and they got dumped.
The question is where next? Speed dating. getting to know people. building up self esteem and feeling attractive again doesn't feel like the worst move.
The SNP got a bounce and did very well in the last GE after losing the Independence Referendum. But then again, that was not that surprising considering the fact that some No voters had no problem eighteen months ago voting SNP to make sure that Scotland still had a strong voice within the UK at Westminster. That the SNP have so quickly wasted this opportunity with their petty grudge and grievance politics has surprised even me, and I was pretty cynical to begin with. Willie Rennie in Scotland is now desperately trying to imitate Ruth Davidson as is Kezia Dugdale after both made a massive mistake of entertaining a more pro Independence stance last year in the wake of their parties GE defeats. A huge mistake which has cost both parties dear. But even now, they are still far more obsessed with attacking the Conservatives who are now the main opposition to the incumbent SNP Government at Holyrood. So no wonder the ever growing number of anti SNP voters are looking to the Scots Conservatives rather than the Libdems or Labour to be their voice and fight their corner against an ever increasingly unpopular SNP Government. Ignore the party polling, just watch how Sturgeon's personal ratings have fallen while Ruth Davidson's have increased right across the party spectrum.
Sometimes British political commentators do themselves few favours with Americans. Though the same can be said the other way around, the US is just a teeny-weeny bit important in world affairs.
Good piece, Mr. Herdson. The comfort zone is a lovely place to snuggle up with your chums, but it's no way to build a political empire.
F1: Ron Dennis is under threat from shareholders and could be replaced by Martin Whitmarsh. Or Ross Brawn. Bloody hell. [Apparently so could Justin King].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37734686
Witney demonstrated that former LD voters can be persuaded to return. No wonder it is the PB tories that are looking over their shoulders. The atavistic Leavers that have taken over their party are going to leave plenty of space for a centrist party of sound (local) government and internationalist outlook.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/10/21/dyn_dns_ddos_explained/?mt=1477114012956
The US customers of all these were effected
Spotify
Netflix
Twitter
PayPal
Parties are against the Tories, the EU, Brexit, immigration, borrowing, austerity. Westminster, And so on
He may benefit from not being seen as stern as May or as demented as Corbyn. But he seems too much of a preacher.
It's also worth noting that whilst the Conservatives (UKIP being busy eating its own face) now have ownership of our leaving the EU, that does mean that the other parties are all scrabbling for the other half of the field (not counting reluctant Remain voters who accept democratic decisions...). A bit like the SNP in Scotland, where there are multiple unionist parties struggling to break through and splitting the unionist vote.
The Lib Dems aren't centrist. They're just not full-blown mental socialists. But that's returning to my point about Corbyn. They also seem reluctant to accept the result of a democratic vote, which isn't an endearing quality.
Miss Fitalass, interesting post on Scotland. Tallies with my (admittedly English) view that people don't want Diet Coke. Pro-independence types will always want the SNP, and if Labour have handed the unionist banner to the Conservatives, that only helps the blues.
Prof McDonough
22 October 1962. US President John F. Kennedy announced on TV that American reconnaissance planes had discovered Soviet missiles in Cuba. https://t.co/SoPuPmoBee
Ricciardo is still available at 13 (each way for top 2) to win at Ladbrokes. I put a small sum on that a few days ago.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37735645
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPcYkxmhGs0
"How does an 'internationalist' ally themselves with the protectionist monstrosity that is the EU's Common Agricultural racket Policy?"
It does not fit with Liberalism. Which is a fundamental problem of the Lib Dems.
When attacking, you determine the ground. It's more powerful to ask a question than make a statement. When on the defensive, you're on the back foot. So, the drive to accuse is one of political advantage (like when the oligarchs and democrats would pre-emptively murder one another in Greek city states in the Peloponnesian War). The media wants headlines and goes scalp-hunting in lieu of interviewing, the smallest of disagreements is called a split and freedom of speech for politicians has perhaps never been lower.
We put political people under a microscope whilst barely glancing at their actual policies. Journalists make the most fundamental mistakes (conflating deficit and debt).
For that matter, yesterday's report by Laura Kuenssberg[sp] was dire. She said May was pleading [she wasn't] then asked how May could expect a say in the EU as we're leaving [as long as we're paying members it seems more than fair to exercise the rights whilst bearing the responsibilities of a member].
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/789610620467294208
"Ironically, it takes a Green MEP and the Guardian to tell the story, leaving the eurosceptics missing a trick. The MEP is a German member of the Green Party, Ska Keller, who says, "Developing countries have a gun pointed at their chest – either they sign or their market access to the EU is restricted", appalled at the way the EU brokered a trade agreement with east Africa late last year.
In this case, she says, the gun was pointed at Kenya – more specifically, its cut flowers industry. The flower business is a lucrative one, worth more than €10bn (£7.7bn) worldwide every year, and Kenya is one of the world's largest exporters of cut stems.
So it was a crushing blow when Europe imposed tariffs on Kenya's cut flowers in October last year, potentially making their blooms significantly more expensive than those grown on European soil. '
I spent some time with the LD's during the remain campaign. It struck me that there are far too many agendas going on within the party to develop a coherent movement or narrative. weird liberal, classic liberal, stubborn liberal, libertarian liberal, Social democratic liberal. I was also surprised that support for staying in the EU was far from unaminous (there was a liberal leave campaign), lots of internal disagreement over issues and a lack of discipline (the smartest guy - the former PPC in the local party acted as a mediating presence between these forces).
I've also worked for them at local government level. Consensus of opinion within the industry is that lib dem controlled councils are very difficult to work for because of their indecisiveness.
They are nonetheless very likeable, pragmatic and pleasant people.
I don't think the resurgence post Witney and with Farron at the helm is really going anywhere. I think there is just too much baggage from the protest/coalition divide in the party and conflicting views are all over the place.
Trump remains an egotistical narcissist; Hillary remains dull and a bit sleazy; the polls taken as a set reinforce other data, all pointing to a comfortable Hillary win.
The US election is dynamite and the paucity of threads on here is feeble. I've seen virtually nothing on the incredibly important Senate and House races, nothing on Governorships and zilch on state-by-state breakdowns.
"Disappointing" to be euphemistic.
But Fitaloss has already thought of that! She says we have to ignore the political party ratings so the SNP still in the stratosphere of 50 per cent plus does not count in her world.
It's pretty clear the LDs are for an internationalist, pro evidencebased policy, social democratic society.
Some on here seem to genuinely think the country needs three Eurosceptic anti immigration pro capitalist parties.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-there-are-4-ways-this-election-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
Clinton takes Texas is more likely than Trump taking Pennsylvania:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-texas-opportunity-and-her-texas-problem/
Relying on wikileaks and poisoning the well of American politics doesn't seem to be going well for Trump. Humiliating defeat has never been more deserved, and looks nailed on.
There's a classic House of Cards episode in which that happens. It was sent by their own team.
We have been talking about Trump and Clinton all week on PB. On the betting front most PB people seem to have moved on to discussing college votes on indexes as the main event is seen as being over.