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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne’s party in dire trouble

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CarlottaVance

First!

CarlottaVance

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

Fishing

As somebody in the Guardian comments section pointed out (tongue in cheek), this is all anti-Corbyn propaganda:

"Corbyn on course for victory. Labour's poll rating surges while tories flounder: 3% (1/26) increase in support in 20 days vs 0% (0/43). Extrapolation to 2020 (27 + (3.5x365/20)) = Labour 282%, Tories 43%."

taffys

Not the least interesting question to emerge from these polls is why UKIP are above 10%.

TheScreamingEagles

Mrs May still failing to hit the 50% plus mark Dave achieved

Alistair

This could be important

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/793321166022860800

williamglenn

Joe and Mika don't have Hillary's back anymore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhXB0tV1PqI

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May still failing to hit the 50% plus mark Dave achieved

Dave who ?

ThreeQuidder

But council by elections.

MonikerDiCanio

Alistair said:

This could be important

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/793321166022860800

The work of Putin.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

Dromedary

Betfair midprices:

Clinton 1.365
Trump 3.825
Sanders 435
Kaine 570
Biden 635
McMullin 940

TheWhiteRabbit

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

SandyRentool

"He appears happiest at rallies when he is enthralling the faithful."

That would be SWP rallies.

Richard_Nabavi

I don't think anyone is taking much notice of Labour at the moment. There really isn't much to take notice of; so irrelevant have they become to the issues of today that they are reduced to making a huge fuss about a 32-year old 'miscarriage of justice' in which no-one died and no-one was wrongly convicted. UKIP and the LibDems are almost as irrelevant.

Meanwhile Theresa May is getting the benefit of the doubt. For now, voters seems to be relieved that she's trying to sort out the mess. Whilst she's making mistakes, they are mostly on peripheral issues. Of course, as time goes on things will get harder for her, but, for now, she's the only show in town.

glw

Alanbrooke said:

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I very rarely see any television during the day but happened to see that yesterday. What an absolute chump. I don't know how anybody takes him seriously.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

Essexit

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

williamglenn

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

theakes

The Conservative & UKIP figures continue to be out of kilter with the present voting reality. Is it because it could include past voting performance, because it does not seem to apply at the moment. There has been a distinct sea change in actual voting since the last General the main beneficiary being the Lib Dems who surely are now in 3rd place for actual and real current voting intentions

Alanbrooke

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

outlier, Hollande must be sub 5

SandyRentool

"Labour has got a lot of members but they are of no use whatsoever..."

Thy are wore than no use. They are causing damage by turfing out experienced, capable branch and CLP officers and replacing them with people whose only claim to office is that they are Corbyites.

Casino_Royale

Corbyn is the Facebook post or twitter feed of that guy you know (the one whose posts you've probably now opted out from, or blocked) who constantly broadcasts ideologically pure views that fit with their world view and only permits likes or comments that wholeheartedly agree, and blocks or attacks the rest.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

I went trick or treating last night here in Sheffield, I should have gone as Thatcher.

justin124

The BMG data is a bit old!

glw

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

Indeed it is funny how Labour gets behind such campaigns only when they become a useful tool for attacking the government.

Casino_Royale

Does anyone have a map of where Clinton or Trump are spending their time, money and ads?

I want to see state-by-state density and frequency.

PrinceofTaranto

Trump plus 29 with Independents in latest ABC poll yet is only one point ahead?

Alanbrooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think anyone is taking much notice of Labour at the moment. There really isn't much to take notice of; so irrelevant have they become to the issues of today that they are reduced to making a huge fuss about a 32-year old 'miscarriage of justice' in which no-one died and no-one was wrongly convicted.

Meanwhile Theresa May is getting the benefit of the doubt. For now, voters seems to be relieved that she's trying to sort out the mess. Whilst she's making mistakes, they are mostly on peripheral issues. Of course, as time goes on things will get harder for her, but, for now, she's the only show in town.

First time Ive agreed with you in ages Richard :-)

JackW

National Tracker - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 28 Oct - 31 Oct

Clinton 44 .. Trump 44

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov1

FrancisUrquhart

But what about the 1908 Bognor by-election which means that Labour aren't in trouble at all? ;-)

SimonStClare

The odd thing is the Labour leader or his party troubles have hardly been in the news this past month. – Do these poll results suggest the public’s mind is already made up?

justin124

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

The Witney by election provided clear evidence that Labour is well able to repel the LibDems with 'You cannot trust them not to put the Tories in'.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

I went trick or treating last night here in Sheffield, I should have gone as Thatcher.

But then lefties would have to bow down and thank you for stopping coal pollution and making a major contribution to slowing global warming

tpfkar

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

Le Pen 26
Sarkozy 20
Macron 15
Mélenchon 13.5
Hollande 10

All the polls are much of a muchness at the moment.

justin124

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

williamglenn

ABC: Trump 46, Clinton 45

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

edmundintokyo

PrinceofTaranto said:

Trump plus 29 with Independents in latest ABC poll yet is only one point ahead?

A big chunk of people who consistently vote Republican identify as independents. This is why national elections are competitive, despite there being significantly more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

TonyE

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

I think that's very unlikely. There are far too many seats where Tory isn't even a consideration, certainly far more than 40. With no Lib Dem Resurgence, I would expect the Labour floor to be over 100 seats, probably significantly more than that.

TheScreamingEagles

glw said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

Indeed it is funny how Labour gets behind such campaigns only when they become a useful tool for attacking the government.

I did point out there's a potential new outrage brewing in Rotherham, that's where their focus should be.

TheWhiteRabbit

justin124 said:

The BMG data is a bit old!

as we know a lot has changed. Except it hasn't :P

Dromedary

glw said:

Alanbrooke said:

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I very rarely see any television during the day but happened to see that yesterday. What an absolute chump. I don't know how anybody takes him seriously.

If "anybody" means "anybody who went to private boarding school", they don't.

Never fear. Blighty keeps a fortnight's gas stocks in preparation for a Russian cut-off, and Zil lanes can be opened up from the City to Heathrow.

I don't watch TV, but I heard some Tory or other on the radio answering questions about Orgreave. All he could say, over and over again, was that some policemen got injured. He was full of class hatred. No surprise. Just saying. And thick as two short planks. Injuries to police officers don't make an argument for not having an inquiry. Nor does the repeatedly parroted fact that unlike at Hillsborough, there weren't scores of deaths. But who listens to oiks when they think they're making a case? Just laugh at them when they get angry at being refused.

SandyRentool

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

I went trick or treating last night here in Sheffield, I should have gone as Thatcher.

But then lefties would have to bow down and thank you for stopping coal pollution and making a major contribution to slowing global warming

Did UK coal consumption fall significantly under Thatcher? I thought we just replaced British coal with imports from Russia, RSA, Colombia, etc.?

justin124

We are surely due a YouGov poll this week.

DaemonBarber

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

For Labour to completely implode south of the border, there needs to be an alternative lefty flavoured party. The SNP did a fantastic job of killing Labour off up here partly by dressing up as left wing.
The scenario you paint won't happen unless another party or parties emerged to attract enough Labour voters, but not enough of them to convert to actual seats.

TGOHF

A nationwide Labour collapse would help Cons in Scotland as the drop in support would bleed over - certainly for the next 2020 - longer term the SNP might benefit.

Casino_Royale

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

There are plenty of places in the country where the Labour vote could collapse, but it would require another alternative because wouldn't be to the Tories.

Any area with a legacy of coal-mining or major ex-industrial metropolitan area in the North is pretty safe, for now.

TonyE

SandyRentool said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

I went trick or treating last night here in Sheffield, I should have gone as Thatcher.

But then lefties would have to bow down and thank you for stopping coal pollution and making a major contribution to slowing global warming

Did UK coal consumption fall significantly under Thatcher? I thought we just replaced British coal with imports from Russia, RSA, Colombia, etc.?

There's a chart half way down this that tells some of the story of declining coal use.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-coal-use-to-fall-to-lowest-level-since-industrial-revolution

Alanbrooke

SandyRentool said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Love OGH perspective - its because Corbyn is doing badly, not because May is doing well.......

On Milne....what happened to McBride replacing him? I thought we saw a distinct improvement in Corbyn's PMQs game after McBride was reputed to have come aboard.....

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I did ask some Labour people in Sheffield yesterday why didn't they launch an inquiry whilst they were in government.

why not try closer to home on PB ?

the whining yesterday was almost as good as why they had done nothing on Murdoch

I went trick or treating last night here in Sheffield, I should have gone as Thatcher.

But then lefties would have to bow down and thank you for stopping coal pollution and making a major contribution to slowing global warming

Did UK coal consumption fall significantly under Thatcher? I thought we just replaced British coal with imports from Russia, RSA, Colombia, etc.?

Ah but that's exactly the point. The UK establishment sets its sights on hollowing out domestic industry so it can say we dont do that. And then promptly replaces its consumption with imports.

Dole not Coal

MP_SE

Tim Farron's strategy of targeting Remain voters is clearly working....

What a loser.

Dromedary

(deleted)

SandyRentool

williamglenn said:

ABC: Trump 46, Clinton 45

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

Cross-something?

Laters...

Essexit

TonyE said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

I think that's very unlikely. There are far too many seats where Tory isn't even a consideration, certainly far more than 40. With no Lib Dem Resurgence, I would expect the Labour floor to be over 100 seats, probably significantly more than that.

A Labour collapse in the North would probably help a Nuttall-led UKIP more than the Tories. Even so, the purples can only advance so far from their current support.

UKIP take Bootle? Probs not.

TCPoliticalBetting

SandyRentool said:

"Labour has got a lot of members but they are of no use whatsoever..."

Thy are wore than no use. They are causing damage by turfing out experienced, capable branch and CLP officers and replacing them with people whose only claim to office is that they are Corbyites.

How are things going with candidate selections for next year's local elections?

tpfkar

justin124 said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

I can assure you it's very much a nightmare rather than fantasy! To those saying it could never happen - I would never have predicted Lab being down to 1 seat in Scotland either - if they were down at 40 I'd still expect 20 to be within the M25 (and Paul Nuttall to cost them dozens of seats in the north, albeit benefiting the Tories)

Jonathan

The LDs are still fourth and still below 10%.

If Labour are in 'dire trouble', the English language fails to describe the situation in which the LDs find themselves. Perhaps we should use that to coin at a term.

Labour may be in dire trouble, but at least they are not in the Liberal Democrats.

MaxPB

46% is the highest I've ever seen Trump. Usually he gets stuck at about 44%. That's definitely worrying.

DaemonBarber

Casino_Royale said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

There are plenty of places in the country where the Labour vote could collapse, but it would require another alternative because wouldn't be to the Tories.

Any area with a legacy of coal-mining or major ex-industrial metropolitan area in the North is pretty safe, for now.

UKIP could have been an option in these areas...

TCPoliticalBetting

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

Slackbladder

glw said:

Alanbrooke said:

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I very rarely see any television during the day but happened to see that yesterday. What an absolute chump. I don't know how anybody takes him seriously.

Does anyone take him seriously these days?

rottenborough

tpfkar said:

justin124 said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

I can assure you it's very much a nightmare rather than fantasy! To those saying it could never happen - I would never have predicted Lab being down to 1 seat in Scotland either - if they were down at 40 I'd still expect 20 to be within the M25 (and Paul Nuttall to cost them dozens of seats in the north, albeit benefiting the Tories)

FPTP is brutal when a party goes over the cliff. The question is whether the generations-old Labour brand is sufficient to keep them at around the mid-20s through this period of crisis and thereby survive in 2019/20 to fight another day.

TheWhiteRabbit

RE: Coal

Next year, for the first time, there is a very real possibility that none of our power will be coal-based for six months of the year.

PrinceofTaranto

edmundintokyo said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Trump plus 29 with Independents in latest ABC poll yet is only one point ahead?

A big chunk of people who consistently vote Republican identify as independents. This is why national elections are competitive, despite there being significantly more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

Yes but it does look from this as if the Republican inclined Indies are breaking for Trump in a big way.

justin124

tpfkar said:

justin124 said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

I can assure you it's very much a nightmare rather than fantasy! To those saying it could never happen - I would never have predicted Lab being down to 1 seat in Scotland either - if they were down at 40 I'd still expect 20 to be within the M25 (and Paul Nuttall to cost them dozens of seats in the north, albeit benefiting the Tories)

It won't happen. Labour will remain above 150.Also Boundary changes are far from certain.

rottenborough

SandyRentool said:

williamglenn said:

ABC: Trump 46, Clinton 45

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

Cross-something?

Laters...

Oh my.

MarkSenior

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

Jonathan

MaxPB said:

46% is the highest I've ever seen Trump. Usually he gets stuck at about 44%. That's definitely worrying.

The most successful political betting strategy.

* Imagine the worse outcome
* Double it
* Confirm that in your gut you know there is no way in real life this could actually happen.

Back that outcome heavily.

Pulpstar

That PA strike sounds good for someone..

justin124

rottenborough said:

tpfkar said:

justin124 said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

I can assure you it's very much a nightmare rather than fantasy! To those saying it could never happen - I would never have predicted Lab being down to 1 seat in Scotland either - if they were down at 40 I'd still expect 20 to be within the M25 (and Paul Nuttall to cost them dozens of seats in the north, albeit benefiting the Tories)

FPTP is brutal when a party goes over the cliff. The question is whether the generations-old Labour brand is sufficient to keep them at around the mid-20s through this period of crisis and thereby survive in 2019/20 to fight another day.

If these figures were to be reflected in next year's Local Elections there would be a good basis for a renewed challenge to Corbyn's leadership. The moderate 'soft' left would turn against him.To date, however, Labour has outpolled expectations under him in by elections and this year's locals.

TCPoliticalBetting

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

Mark, I have been generous to the Lib Dems, so please do not take liberties with my kind words! That said I do think the Con numbers are possibly under stating their rating because of the slump in UKIP.

peter_from_putney

"They used to blame the “plotters” – maybe they should look at their own hapless leadership "

I thought for a moment OGH was referring to Two Taxi Tim's party.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.

MaxPB

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

46% is the highest I've ever seen Trump. Usually he gets stuck at about 44%. That's definitely worrying.

The most successful political betting strategy.

* Imagine the worse outcome
* Double it
* Confirm that in your gut you know there is no way in real life this could actually happen.

Back that outcome heavily.

I've been backing Trump for a few days now, wiped out my entire positive position on Clinton. I will break even with a Clinton victory and make enough to pay for my holiday to Fiji if Trump wins. At least I'll be by a beach sometime in February.

justin124

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

Mark, I have been generous to the Lib Dems, so please do not take liberties with my kind words!

There are some commentators who suspect that the pollsters have overadjusted for their 2015 debacle and that their figures are now flattering the Tories somewhat. ICM - I think - has moved to Online polling in recent months so making meaningful comparisons with earlier periods is far from straight forward.

TCPoliticalBetting

rottenborough said:

tpfkar said:

justin124 said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

You are in the realms of fantasy there. Enjoy it!

I can assure you it's very much a nightmare rather than fantasy! To those saying it could never happen - I would never have predicted Lab being down to 1 seat in Scotland either - if they were down at 40 I'd still expect 20 to be within the M25 (and Paul Nuttall to cost them dozens of seats in the north, albeit benefiting the Tories)

FPTP is brutal when a party goes over the cliff. The question is whether the generations-old Labour brand is sufficient to keep them at around the mid-20s through this period of crisis and thereby survive in 2019/20 to fight another day.

In modern times the low point for Labour was the 209 MPs in 1983. That total was inflated by 41 SLAB MPs, therefore a level of 160/170 is not impossible for 2020.

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.

Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

MaxPB

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.

rpjs

MonikerDiCanio said:

Alistair said:

This could be important

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/793321166022860800

The work of Putin.

SEPTA strikes are a Philly thing. To rip off Geico, it's what they do.

rcs1000

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.

Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou

Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...

glw

Dromedary said:

glw said:

Alanbrooke said:

I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.

Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.

I very rarely see any television during the day but happened to see that yesterday. What an absolute chump. I don't know how anybody takes him seriously.

If "anybody" means "anybody who went to private boarding school", they don't.

Never fear. Blighty keeps a fortnight's gas stocks in preparation for a Russian cut-off, and Zil lanes can be opened up from the City to Heathrow.

I don't watch TV, but I heard some Tory or other on the radio answering questions about Orgreave. All he could say, over and over again, was that some policemen got injured. He was full of class hatred. No surprise. Just saying. And thick as two short planks. Injuries to police officers don't make an argument for not having an inquiry. Nor does the repeatedly parroted fact that unlike at Hillsborough, there weren't scores of deaths. But who listens to oiks when they think they're making a case? Just laugh at them when they get angry at being refused.

Don't know why you are going on a rant about class.

It seems to me that the people "making a case" haven't made a case, hence the Home Secretary turning down their request. Labour support for the campaign looks to be nakedly political. And from what I've heard from both sides on the radio there's been some very selective recall of the events.

Personally I'm skeptical of all inquiries into events decades after they have happened.

dr_spyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

Has Andy Burnham demanded an inquiry into Tory dog killers?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

SandyRentool said:

williamglenn said:

ABC: Trump 46, Clinton 45

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

Cross-something?

Laters...

Whatever happened to'tipping point'?

Slackbladder

I want Hiliary to win, but it Trump does...it'll be so FUN!

Imagine the Guardianista's

Essexit

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

Still wrong. You don't have to be particularly violent to bite Michael Heseltine.

rpjs

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

The Canadians survived the Bloc Québecois being the official opposition.

TCPoliticalBetting

Has Tim Farron severed links with a key advisor yet, following the BBC Panorama programme?
http://www.businessinsider.in/Rolls-Royce-may-have-used-bribes-to-land-major-contracts-in-India-and-other-countries/articleshow/55175561.cms

rottenborough

Hold your nerve Clinton backers!! Ground game:

"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-launches-harsh-attacks-clinton-43210035

TCPoliticalBetting

Essexit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

Still wrong. You don't have to be particularly violent to bite Michael Heseltine.

But you should have a tetanus and rabies jab as soon as possible.

TCPoliticalBetting

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

Has Andy Burnham demanded an inquiry into Tory dog killers?

Not yet but give hime time.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

MaxPB said:

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

There are plenty of places in the country where the Labour vote could collapse, but it would require another alternative because wouldn't be to the Tories.

Any area with a legacy of coal-mining or major ex-industrial metropolitan area in the North is pretty safe, for now.

Labour gets some positive votes in small sections of the country - inner London, Brighton, maybe parts of Brum; elsewhere it is sustained by an anti-Tory vote. Right now, most people aren't anti-Tory in the way that so many used to be. That is an undoubted legacy of Cameron/Osborne. A bad Brexit and a few more years of the ludicrous cabinet that May has assembled, and that may change - but Labour cannot count on that; and, in any case, under Corbyn the Tories win whatever they do. Labour needs a fundamental rethink - something which right now it is clearly incapable of. With FPTP, that leaves a lot of us with nowhere to go, except waiting for the day that the unions pull the plug. With Momentum now in open civil war that day may be a little sooner than I thought, though I am still looking at late 2018 as the most realistic time.

TheScreamingEagles

So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?

rottenborough

Slackbladder said:

I want Hiliary to win, but it Trump does...it'll be so FUN!

Imagine the Guardianista's

The fun might be shortlived if the whole of the Middle East is in flames and millions of refugees are on the march northwards.

rottenborough

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/793439779845185536

Has Andy Burnham demanded an inquiry into Tory dog killers?

Changed his mind.

nunu

rottenborough said:

Hold your nerve Clinton backers!! Ground game:

"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-launches-harsh-attacks-clinton-43210035

That doesn't sound a lot, Leave had 30,000 and Remain 40,000.

peter_from_putney

justin124 said:

We are surely due a YouGov poll this week.

They seem to be doing a great deal of polling in the US right now .... perhaps they've deployed their top guns over there. While political polling probably isn't that profitable per se, it doesn't half provide them with corporate name familiarity going forward.

Extra bit - I think this is my 5,000th post on Vanilla!

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

Hold your nerve Clinton backers!! Ground game:

"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-launches-harsh-attacks-clinton-43210035

Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.