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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election previewed by Harry Hayfield

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election previewed by Harry Hayfield

Banff and District (SNP defence) D and Inverurie and District (Lib Dem defence) R on Aberdeenshire Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 12, Independents 11, Labour 2, Green 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 7) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 76,445 (55%) LEAVE 62,516 (45%) on a turnout of 71% Scottish Independence Referendum Result: YES 71,337 (40%) NO 108,606 (60%) on a turnout of 87%

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016
    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2016
    The tactic is to get the Government to reveal its negotiating strategy and to try to get them to admit that they want a soft-ish Brexit. They then hope that the EU will take that as an indication that there is the prospect that playing hardball will cause the Government to back down and try to stay in. The leading EU politicians will no doubt misjudge the position and buy into this idea.

    Meanwhile the anger outside of the Metropolitan pro-remain heartlands will grow and we should all fear for the consequences whether we stay in or not. Those who cling to the idea that they can engineer Brexit not happening will ultimately undermine the prospect of a palatable brexit occurring.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    Who/Whom. There are doubtless influential people who would consider the use of force, if necessary, to prevent Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    Who/Whom. There are doubtless influential people who would consider the use of force, if necessary, to prevent Brexit.
    Unfortunately probably true
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Thanks Harry, will the Lib Dem steam train continue?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
  • Cheers for the thread Harry.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Indeed we don't - that's what took us in.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Yep, if we're still in the EU by the time of the next election (assuming the election isn't early because TM is seeking a mandate) I'll most certainly be voting for UKIP in protest.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    Wasn't is pure "fantasy" that a majority of 17m people would vote to leave the EU?

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    161 Labour seats and 252 Tory seats and 3 LD seats voted Leave, totalling 416 seats ie 2/3 of the House of Commons, any MPs who voted down Brexit from those seats would be easy pickings for UKIP

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.v5wy36y8i
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

    Following the rule of law. The bastards. Very dangerous...
  • O/T

    Fascinating snippet in the Saints match picked up by BT - whilst the decision was being protested by Inter about Saints getting a late penalty, one of the Italian team was shown busily kicking and scuffing up the penalty spot whilst everyone else was in the 'melee'... that's proper 'gamesmanship'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    I think you are right
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Be honest, and make the case (as many intellectuals have done) that important decisions should not be the subject of popular vote. Argue for Plato's Guardians to take decisions for the rest of us. You plainly don't consider that a vote to leave the EU could ever be legitimate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    A 'democratic' Parliament throwing the votes of 17 million Britons back into their faces as not worth the ballots they were voted on is a whole new ball game
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Been on the old thread for about half an hour and no one had the guts to tell me :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Yep, if we're still in the EU by the time of the next election (assuming the election isn't early because TM is seeking a mandate) I'll most certainly be voting for UKIP in protest.
    Indeed and I expect many others would follow
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    GIN1138 said:

    Yep, if we're still in the EU by the time of the next election (assuming the election isn't early because TM is seeking a mandate) I'll most certainly be voting for UKIP in protest.

    The rational thing now is to keep voting UKIP until we are out, the local elections next year might be a wake up call for those parties who think they might yet thwart the referendum.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Cheers for the thread Harry.

    Seconded, very much appreciated!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

    Following the rule of law. The bastards. Very dangerous...
    No, trying to stop Brexit happening (Ali Campbell admitted that's the real "game" in his tweet) which is what we all knew anyway.

    Dangerous times for this country.
  • RobD said:

    Been on the old thread for about half an hour and no one had the guts to tell me :p

    that's one reason....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Been on the old thread for about half an hour and no one had the guts to tell me :p

    that's one reason....
    harsh, but fair.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    161 Labour seats and 252 Tory seats and 3 LD seats voted Leave, totalling 416 seats ie 2/3 of the House of Commons, any MPs who voted down Brexit from those seats would be easy pickings for UKIP

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.v5wy36y8i
    Whether that is true or not, I doubt doing it would be on the back of only 37% of the vote.

  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    New NBC/WSJ polls

    ARIZONA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 40%

    GEORGIA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 44%

    TEXAS
    Trump 49%
    Clinton 40%

    https://t.co/y1VrWTITqY
  • Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    Would be the ultimate irony if, rather than stopping Brexit, the Establishment finish up with 50-60 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power in a Con/UKIP coalition government and we get the hardest of Brexit's possible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    161 Labour seats and 252 Tory seats and 3 LD seats voted Leave, totalling 416 seats ie 2/3 of the House of Commons, any MPs who voted down Brexit from those seats would be easy pickings for UKIP

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.v5wy36y8i
    Whether that is true or not, I doubt doing it would be on the back of only 37% of the vote.

    No, it would easily be done on 37%, in white working class Labour areas there would be an avalanche of defections to UKIP and Tories would defect en masse to UKIP if represented by a Tory MP who tried to prevent Article 50 being triggered. You would end up with a result something like Labour 23% Tory 23% LD 5% UKIP 37% much as TSE posted earlier today
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2016
    There's a program about Trump on BBC2. After 15 minutes it's clear as daylight he's a complete piece of shit and this is the BBC not those headbanger tweets Plato keeps posting. What are the Americans thinking about??

    .....What's more he's a dangerous fantasist.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    How many times does it have to be pointed out that the nature of Brexit is largely out of the Government's control? I doubt May would go to the country on any specific "form" of Brexit, the mandate would be to trigger Article 50 and negotiate the best deal she can get. But the key MUST be that the negotiators on the EU side know that we are going to leave, and that it is not therefore in their interests to seek a mutually destructive deal in the hope that it will convince the UK to stay.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    GIN1138 said:

    Would be the ultimate irony if, rather than stopping Brexit, the Establishment finish up with 50-60 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power in a Con/UKIP coalition government and we get the hardest of Brexit's possible.

    Indeed, Brexit Minister Farage pushing the button to dynamite the Channel Tunnel.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    Would be the ultimate irony if, rather than stopping Brexit, the Establishment finish up with 50-60 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power in a Con/UKIP coalition government and we get the hardest of Brexit's possible.
    Certainly possible
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Roger said:

    There's a program about Trump on BBC2. After 15 minutes it's clear as daylight he's a complete piece of shit and this is the BBC not those headbanger tweets Plato keeps posting. What are the Americans thinking about??

    BBC (UK) == CNN (USA)
  • Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

    Following the rule of law. The bastards. Very dangerous...
    Aye. The nation voted for a restoration of Parliamentary sovereignty, so it's sickening to see unelected, so-called expert, and (according to the Daily Mail) unrepentantly gay judges thwarting that by requiring Parliament to legislate.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    Who/Whom. There are doubtless influential people who would consider the use of force, if necessary, to prevent Brexit.
    Brexit by any means necessary!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    619 said:

    New NBC/WSJ polls

    ARIZONA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 40%

    GEORGIA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 44%

    TEXAS
    Trump 49%
    Clinton 40%

    https://t.co/y1VrWTITqY

    Oh dear.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    If she resigns TM will be in no position to call an election. She would no longer be PM!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    In your dreams!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    weejonnie said:

    619 said:

    New NBC/WSJ polls

    ARIZONA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 40%

    GEORGIA
    Trump 45%
    Clinton 44%

    TEXAS
    Trump 49%
    Clinton 40%

    https://t.co/y1VrWTITqY

    Oh dear.
    The GA one isn't great for Trump
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    The idea that the SNP would have 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland seemed ludicrous about thirty months ago.

    I don't believe UKIP can win big, but I believe a combination of Tory leavers and UKIP can.

    England is Scotland with the added grievance that we won our referendum.
  • The Kippers are certainly fizzing on here today. And this is only after a perfectly sensible court ruling on a constitutional nuance. I dread to think what their reaction will be when the Brexit settlement is finally made public - they'll be urging each other to set themselves alight with petrol I expect.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Aye. The nation voted for a restoration of Parliamentary sovereignty, so it's sickening to see unelected, so-called expert, and (according to the Daily Mail) unrepentantly gay judges thwarting that by requiring Parliament to legislate.

    The Brexiteer meltdown has been spectacular.

    Previously sensible folk complaining about "unelected judges", "overturning" the referendum
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    weejonnie said:

    Roger said:

    There's a program about Trump on BBC2. After 15 minutes it's clear as daylight he's a complete piece of shit and this is the BBC not those headbanger tweets Plato keeps posting. What are the Americans thinking about??

    BBC (UK) == CNN (USA)
    Watch it. He's way beyond repulsive.....
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    HYUFD said:

    (snipped)

    No, it would easily be done on 37%, in white working class Labour areas there would be an avalanche of defections to UKIP and Tories would defect en masse to UKIP if represented by a Tory MP who tried to prevent Article 50 being triggered. You would end up with a result something like Labour 23% Tory 23% LD 5% UKIP 37% much as TSE posted earlier today

    AIUI, however, a lot of the votes in those areas came from people who don't normally turn out.

    Assuming they don't bother because they feel their vote makes no difference, are they likely to bother after they've been proved dead right after a referendum where supposedly every vote counted?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    In your dreams!
    Scottish Labour's famous last words!!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?

    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    161 Labour seats and 252 Tory seats and 3 LD seats voted Leave, totalling 416 seats ie 2/3 of the House of Commons, any MPs who voted down Brexit from those seats would be easy pickings for UKIP

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.v5wy36y8i
    Whether that is true or not, I doubt doing it would be on the back of only 37% of the vote.

    No, it would easily be done on 37%, in white working class Labour areas there would be an avalanche of defections to UKIP and Tories would defect en masse to UKIP if represented by a Tory MP who tried to prevent Article 50 being triggered. You would end up with a result something like Labour 23% Tory 23% LD 5% UKIP 37% much as TSE posted earlier today
    I'm not saying it isn't possible to manufacture an outcome that sees votes distributed in such a way that UKIP get a majority on 37%. I'm saying that I doubt a real 37% vote would be distributed efficiently enough to generate such a majority. If they got all the votes in the places they needed, they would also get lots of votes in places they didn't need.

    And that's without factoring in the reality that no matter how many people might like the theory of voting UKIP to send the message they want, the unfortunate truth is that they can only do so by electing 300+ actual UKIP MPs. Which would lead to seepage for obvious reasons.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP

    Unless all they did was split the vote and let someone else in
  • GIN1138 said:



    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...

    No, because UKIP won't get Remain votes and will split Leave votes with the Tories, who will run on Hard Brexit. And the Tories have the advantage of a leader who is neither a fighter nor a boozer, and who is PM right now. That's not a basis for 2 seats, let alone 50.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2016
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    The idea that the SNP would have 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland seemed ludicrous about thirty months ago.

    I don't believe UKIP can win big, but I believe a combination of Tory leavers and UKIP can.

    Indeed. UKIP don't have to achieve a "tsunami" to influence things. All they need to 50 MP's and to hold the balance of power...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    If she resigns TM will be in no position to call an election. She would no longer be PM!
    She would remain PM until the election was over
  • alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    I doubt UKIP would get anywhere near 37%.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    Perhaps it is for the best that we just test this to destruction. Clearly, there are lots of people who do not regard the outcome of the vote on 23rd June as being at all legitimate. Give them their head.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    The idea that the SNP would have 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland seemed ludicrous about thirty months ago.
    They were the largest party in the Scottish Parliament since 2007 and were clearly a party of government rather than simply a protest movement. There's no comparison with UKIP.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    Would be the ultimate irony if, rather than stopping Brexit, the Establishment finish up with 50-60 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power in a Con/UKIP coalition government and we get the hardest of Brexit's possible.
    Certainly possible
    The Conservatives wouldn't have to ally with UKIP in those circumstances, if the only issue to be determined was Brexit.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    But remember that in Brexitland this happens after "influential people" have used force to prevent Brexit taking place.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    UKIP's shining light has failed to get elected every single time. It's pure fantasy to think they could sweep to a landslide in a GE.
    The idea that the SNP would have 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland seemed ludicrous about thirty months ago.

    I don't believe UKIP can win big, but I believe a combination of Tory leavers and UKIP can.

    Indeed. UKIP don't have to achieve a "tsunami" to influence things. All they need to 50 MP's and to hold the balance of power...
    Nuttall and the North.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so the Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite fightback to overturn Brexit begins
    @campbellclaret
    Alastair Campbell Retweeted BBC Politics
    Hope so.


    BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
    Could the High Court ruling requiring Parliament to approve the triggering of Article 50 mean the UK stays in... http://bbc.in/2fywDpK 
    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/794271241284763648

    As others have said, at least he's honest about his intentions. I dare say there are no shortage of people in Parliament who would like to stall the process for as long as possible in the name of scrutiny, whilst hoping that the wheels fall off the Brexit wagon before it crosses the finishing line.
    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?
    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    Agreed.

    I would certainly consider a one time vote.

    Should the Liberal Elite be that stupid.
    It is still unlikely but if a combination of Labour and LD MPs, Cameroons on the Tory benches and the SNP and the Lords manage to prevent Article 50 being triggered, May will be forced to resign and call an election and UKIP could sweep through the seats of those Labour and LD and Tory MPs in areas which voted Leave with a scythe
    If she resigns TM will be in no position to call an election. She would no longer be PM!
    She would remain PM until the election was over
    Not if - as you suggest -she has resigned! A new PM would have to be appointed.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    Where does the Tory right end and UKIP start?

    140 Tory MPs voted leave. That's 'UKIP' in all but rosette.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    The Kippers are certainly fizzing on here today.

    Thing is I never was a Kipper. I had a long history on here of being Anti-Farage and whilst I personally always thought we should leave the EU I certainly didn't have it as my number one issue (hence voting Lab in 1997, Lib-Dem in 2005 and Tory in 2010 and 2015)

    REMAIN converted me into the Brexiteer through Cameron and Osborne's appalling referendum campaign.

    Now the reaction to the LEAVE vote from Remainers is moving me towards UKIP - Although I do believe Theresa May is sincere and "gets it" I'm just not sure she will be allowed to implement the will of the people.

    I imagine there are many people in my position and I fear for where this is going to end up ultimately.
  • Roger said:

    There's a program about Trump

    .....What's more he's a dangerous fantasist.

    Clegg accused Farage of pedaling a dangerous fantasy when he spoke about the EU Army once.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The establishment is playing a very dangerous game.

    Following the rule of law. The bastards. Very dangerous...
    No, trying to stop Brexit happening (Ali Campbell admitted that's the real "game" in his tweet) which is what we all knew anyway.

    Dangerous times for this country.
    Indeed.

    The woman who brought the Article 50 challenge revealed her true colours. She originally claimed that she just wanted to ensure that the law was followed correctly. It has subsequently come out that she is a Eurofanatic who felt physically sick at the result.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Roger said:

    weejonnie said:

    Roger said:

    There's a program about Trump on BBC2. After 15 minutes it's clear as daylight he's a complete piece of shit and this is the BBC not those headbanger tweets Plato keeps posting. What are the Americans thinking about??

    BBC (UK) == CNN (USA)
    Watch it. He's way beyond repulsive.....
    America cannot hold together for much longer. There's a chance that the USA breaks up before we leave the EU.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    I imagine there are many people in my position and I fear for where this is going to end up ultimately.

    UKIP candidates are actively endorsing sacking judges and making them political appointees.

    If that is ultimately where you "fear" this ending up, don't vote UKIP...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
  • Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    Perhaps it is for the best that we just test this to destruction. Clearly, there are lots of people who do not regard the outcome of the vote on 23rd June as being at all legitimate. Give them their head.
    Which is why there should be a GE. UKIP will I expect stand aside where the Con MP is a LEAVEr and where UKIP is second, LEAVE voters will select them rather than their usual party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2016
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Whether or not the EU is a "minor" issue this is moving WAY beyond the issue of the EU per se.

    The people voted and they expect their wishes to be implemented. If that is ignored or thwarted your effectively setting up a battle of wills between the government and the governed.

    Then it become the "principle of thing" rather than being about the EU per se... It won't end well...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Well this is all jolly good fun isn't it.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Whether or not the EU is a "minor" issue this is moving WAY beyond the issue of the EU per se.

    The people voted and they expect their wishes to be implemented. If that is ignored or thwarted your effectively setting up a battle of wills between the government and the governed.

    Then it become the "principle of thing" rather than being about the EU per se... It won't end well...
    Democrats v Remainers.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Whether or not the EU is a "minor" issue this is moving WAY beyond the issue of the EU per se.

    The people voted and they expect their wishes to be implemented. If that is ignored or thwarted your effectively setting up a battle of wills between the government and the governed.

    Then it become the "principle of thing" rather than being about the EU per se... It won't end well...
    I do not disagree. However, I do seriously question that a General Election could be fought on a single issue . At the end of the day that would not be in the Government's gift , and I strongly suspect that the public would be very receptive to other issues being brought to the fore.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brexiteers arguing that Parliamentary Sovereignty is now thwarting the will of the people is sublime...
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Like Jezbollah and McIRA.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    GIN1138 said:

    Then it become the "principle of thing" rather than being about the EU per se... It won't end well...

    Exactly, what's the point of a referendum — or any other vote for that matter — if when Parliament doesn't like the result they ignore it? It Parliament thwarts Brexit the SNP might as well go for UDI.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The Kippers must know this, and that's why there's this ludicrous snarling and snorting about a court judgement - they want to stir up aggro and keep themselves in business. Nasty bunch.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Spectrum of possibilities still very wide.

    New Auto Alliance / ESA / Pulse polls have Clinton leading in all of:

    NC
    PA
    OH
    NH
    CO
    NV

    Tie in Florida.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#plus
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP

    Unless all they did was split the vote and let someone else in
    UKIP would easily win under FPTP in a Leave seat, especially with the Remain vote split 3 ways
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteers arguing that Parliamentary Sovereignty is now thwarting the will of the people is sublime...

    Run out of tweets to copy and paste?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteers arguing that Parliamentary Sovereignty is now thwarting the will of the people is sublime...

    It is when Parliament does something the people don't want ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    In Nevada for the last 2 election Obama scored pretty much 100% registered Dems to. McCain got 96% and Romey 106% Register Republicans to Votes.

    To go back to 2000 the table looks like
    Register Voters to Vote
    Dem Rep
    2000 85% 80%
    2004 92% 96%
    2008 100% 96%
    2012 100% 106%
    The Republicans would need a 19 percentage point gap in Registered Voter to Vote gap to win the state i.e. if Dems were at 2000 level and Republicans at 2012 levels Republicans would only win by 27,000 votes.

    That's why I'm saying Hilary by 4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    (snipped)

    No, it would easily be done on 37%, in white working class Labour areas there would be an avalanche of defections to UKIP and Tories would defect en masse to UKIP if represented by a Tory MP who tried to prevent Article 50 being triggered. You would end up with a result something like Labour 23% Tory 23% LD 5% UKIP 37% much as TSE posted earlier today

    AIUI, however, a lot of the votes in those areas came from people who don't normally turn out.

    Assuming they don't bother because they feel their vote makes no difference, are they likely to bother after they've been proved dead right after a referendum where supposedly every vote counted?
    Those who voted in the referendum will
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    That really is gibberish! You are assuming that people like myself who voted Leave last June would see Brexit as the most important issue in a General Election. To me - despite being a political anorak- the EU is a minor issue and will have zero influence on how I cast my vote. I strongly suspect that any election called in response to Brexit would end up being dominated by other issues. Ted Heath found that out in February 1974.
    Yes, I think you're right. Interesting times - one way or the other we seem to be on course for seeing how big a conflagration we can cause.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MP_SE said:

    Run out of tweets to copy and paste?

    Nope

    @paulwaugh: Court case causes real problem for many Tory Brexit MPs who have long said Parliamentary sovereignty is supreme.

    No shit...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Yes, this has now moved on from trying to just get 'soft Brexit', after today's judgement diehard Remainers now think they have a chance to kill off Brexit altogether. Now who was it who said there was no longer any need for UKIP?

    UKIP serve a vital purpose in the Remain game plan: undermining the cohesion of the Conservative party.
    Remainers with such 'cunning plans' may find that if they overturn the will of 17 million voters and keep the UK in the EU through the backdoor they will end up with UKIP surfing into Westminster on the back of an SNP-style Tsunami at the next election!
    It's was the 'will' of some of them, and the one-off forced choice of many more. We don't need to fetishise a single vote taken after people had been subjected to a barrage of lies.
    Leave won 52%, close to 50% would still vote Leave, UKIP only need 37% for a majority, 40-45% for a landslide
    I doubt 37% would get UKIP anywhere near a majority.

    161 Labour seats and 252 Tory seats and 3 LD seats voted Leave, totalling 416 seats ie 2/3 of the House of Commons, any MPs who voted down Brexit from those seats would be easy pickings for UKIP

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.v5wy36y8i
    Whether that is true or not, I doubt doing it would be on the back of only 37% of the vote.

    No, it would easily be done on 37%, in white working class Labour areas there would be an avalanche of defections to UKIP and Tories would defect en masse to UKIP if represented by a Tory MP who tried to prevent Article 50 being triggered. You would end up with a result something like Labour 23% Tory 23% LD 5% UKIP 37% much as TSE posted earlier today
    I'm not saying it isn't possible to manufacture an outcome that sees votes distributed in such a way that UKIP get a majority on 37%. I'm saying that I doubt a real 37% vote would be distributed efficiently enough to generate such a majority. If they got all the votes in the places they needed, they would also get lots of votes in places they didn't need.

    And that's without factoring in the reality that no matter how many people might like the theory of voting UKIP to send the message they want, the unfortunate truth is that they can only do so by electing 300+ actual UKIP MPs. Which would lead to seepage for obvious reasons.

    As I have posted 416 constituencies voted Leave, you only need 326 for a majority
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    As I have posted 416 constituencies voted Leave, you only need 326 for a majority

    And in how many of those will they be faced with a choice of more than 1 leave candidate?
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    UKIP are on their death bed . Their candidates for the 2 Welsh by elections today have had to be drafted in from Swindon and Skegness .
    The danger is that this could resurrect UKIP. In my opinion there is a lot of excitable discussion tonight but in the end a vote on A50 will be taken and passed. The HOL cannot stop the legislation but can delay it and generally mess around with it.

    However that would result in an unstoppable demand for the abolition of the HOL and TM could appoint sufficient conservatives peers to see this happen.

    When push comes to shove I do not think the HOL will obstruct the will of the people and the HOC and that A50 will be served though maybe somewhat delayed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited November 2016
    It's a bit Daily Mail on here today isn't it.

    Brexiters hold your nerve and stop bleating like Corporal Jones.

    We're still leaving just that Parliament will endorse the process. May should have done this ages ago which would have avoided the general PB Leaver self-wetting today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    Perhaps it is for the best that we just test this to destruction. Clearly, there are lots of people who do not regard the outcome of the vote on 23rd June as being at all legitimate. Give them their head.
    Indeed, if Remainer MPs want to test the theory to destruction let them be the authors of their own
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Silly UKIP fantasies on here. If May loses in Lords (probably) she'd most likely go to country on Hard Brexit, Labour on Soft Brexit, Lib Dems on No Brexit. Lords would be forced to respect outcome as it'd be a manifesto commitment.

    As has been mentioned, the only person elected on a UKIP banner last year is a man the party wants rid of (Great White Hope having been humiliated), and they can't throw a cheese and wine party without some poor bugger being glassed.

    Talk of UKIP landslides is fanciful but do you not think it's possible that an "emergency" election after the Commons and HoL have voted down A50 might see 50 UKIP MP's holding the balance of power?

    That's all it will take for the cohesion of the country to shatter...
    Any Labour, LD or Tory MP who voted down A50 and who represents a Leave voting constituency would almost certainly lose their seat to UKIP
    Perhaps it is for the best that we just test this to destruction. Clearly, there are lots of people who do not regard the outcome of the vote on 23rd June as being at all legitimate. Give them their head.
    If, in 2050, there is a referendum on whether the UK introduces Sharia law for everyone, and because of the changing demographics, 52% vote yes in a free and fair referendum, I would regard it as being legitimate but I would fight it all the way.

    A robust democracy respects the views of the minority as well as the majority. There is the opportunity for the minority to become the majority in regular elections. The EU referendum was the antithesis of democracy. It was a one-way ticket and the slim majority of leavers think they speak for everyone. I don't accept it and millions of other don't either and we will seek to overturn it however we can.
This discussion has been closed.