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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial
One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result.
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http://news.sky.com/story/us-election-2016-follow-the-action-as-results-come-in-10623432
Oh and 1st
All this from a single tweet that may or may not be wholly accurate. – Brave…
Certainly that would be consistent with his childish lying "alpha male" bravado.
If you received a polling report you'd commissioned, then found out crucial elements hadn't been included on the whim of that pollster - would you pay for it?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
On topic, it's entirely possible that people are hiding stuff from Donald - he most probably does react like a CEO rather than a politician when people come to him with problems rather than solutions.
And then you see his opponent is Hillary Clinton. And his still being a viable candidate makes some grim sense.
With the Trump campaign, well, there seems to be a lot of flags being run up a lot of flagpoles.
(1) Immediately offer it. We wouldn't want the Labour party having to vote against Article 50.
(2) Surely there is no (2).
Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania do not have early voting, so having final rallies in these places is arguably wise:
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
Saying that, i do expect him to wi Iowa
http://tinyurl.com/jgkq9wy
Of course you've got to take out Jezza...but he is becoming a less important factor, if still a critical one.
Is there a country in the world without single market access?
If need be, May should go to the country. Say she intends to carry out the referendum result, and that unlike Labour, her promise is not conditional.
"Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me."
So you negotiate (according to 'ol bonehead) by saying without that being offered, you'll vote against Article 50 and try to torpedo the UK leaving. If you were Juncker's negotiators, what would you do?
Now if I were a conspiracy theorist ...
The alternative is May agrees to some sort of access, and the EU slaps a £25bn a year price tag on it.
This is simply a mechanism whereby those opposed to what the electorate voted for are trying to stop it happening. Eminently predictable (many here predicted it) and transparently rancid.
Democracy counts when you're on the losing side. It's not a quiz where you get forced to have a second go to see if you can give the 'right' answer.
I suspect she is more comfortable with the position that she is currently paints herself as being in - a very open mandate from the British people that gives maximum flexibility in any negotiations.
To my mind being held to EU rules without a say in them, and paying for the privilege is a pretty poor deal.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
But we see already the wretched situation even in the Commons we'll have. The SNP will vote against, Labour may do so, there are a few Conservatives like Clarke. The vote might not even get through the Commons.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/
"The EU negotiators don't swing into action before Article 50 is triggered."
Then why the big debate in the HoC? What exactly is the point. Do you really think Mrs May is going to say "If they offer single market access, refuse it outright."?
Put a gun to the heads of 99% of Leavers and they would not be able to give a sovereignty argument beyond what they think the single market is or isn't.
Every question every day would be "What does Brexit look like"
It would be carnage
If she wanted to thwart it, what might she do?
Put the 3 most incompetent ministers in charge of it? Check
Fight a losing legal battle? Check
Appeal? Check
Appeal to the ECJ is next on the list...
And Trump 4.6 is excellent value too for the main race?
So, yeah. Tim Kaine is the guy I'd pick if I wanted someone to say Mass. I don't know if he's the guy you want trying to close out the deal in Florida.
This is a transparent attempt to reverse the referendum result by trying to paint May into a corner. It may work, of course, but it's still repugnant.
One problem is, suppose that the Bill is only passed upon certain conditions being agreed by the EU. A50 is invoked. The conditions aren't agreed, but A50 is irrevocable. So, we're out anyway.
That's why any vote has to be a simple Yes or No.
Although, as anyone who's played the Dead or Alive series knows, sometimes random button mashing works.
As for what Jeremy Corbyn thinks he's doing, I have no idea.
https://twitter.com/wolmarforlondon/status/747820784589094912
And if people don't like the deal she ends up negotiating, she will remind them they can vote her out of power. Which is why in practice, she won't go to the country until we have negotiated - and delivered - our exit from the EU.
He is no leader.
Scottish ministers admitted last night that a controversial £10bn trade deal with China has collapsed after an insider told The Sunday Times the plug was pulled months ago by a Chinese consortium that described the deal as a “shambles”.
It has emerged that state-backed companies SinoFortone and China Railway No 3 Engineering Group (CR3) cancelled the accord in an email to the Scottish government on August 15, less than five months after it was signed. The disclosure will embarrass Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, who personally sealed the deal — without fanfare — at Bute House last March.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/chinese-fury-at-shambolic-scots-khgb8twlw
Ripping the piss out of a Right-wing figure, performing personalised character assassination on them, burning them in effigy, wishing cancer upon them and their children, and throwing a street party and singing "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" when they kick the bucket is satire, and all just a bit of harmless fun, innit?
Doing the equivalent to a left-wing figure is all sorts of -isms, -phobias, unjustified abuse and a reportable hate crime (which the policy are clearly -ist and -phobic if they don't prosecute.)
Well, that and Corbyn is indeed too insignificant to be worth consigning unto the purifying flames.
I think the US has a pretty poor current crop of choices for Leader of the country. We're not far behind.
Oh, wait...
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/795037602030243841
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/795037252644720640
All very helpful for Theresa. With enemies like these, who needs friends?
On the one hand she will be forced in to promises on curbing free movement, and on the other forced in to commitments to maintain the single market, etc. Promises that are not deliverable, fail to meet scrutiny, and in the meantime confidence decreases and labour rise in the polls by virtue of being the only alternative.
It is not just the USA led by incompetents.
I don't know why TM can't say that our red lines are WTO conditions but that we would negotiate to get the best deal possible. I mentioned this as a possible statement straight after she took power
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.
And is it materially worse than what we have now?
It is clear those people wanting to run negotiations in a public forum, expecting to criticise what their own side have or have not achieved to date, and what they are prepared to offer the other side, have a) no experience of negotiating beyond trying to get a child to go to bed (with mixed results) and/or b) wish the negotiations to fail. In either case "fuck off" is an appropriate response.
Next question please.
He's absolutely right to be hitting Clinton in her old firewall because polling shows she's no longer got it.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-campaign-is-almost-over-and-heres-where-we-stand/
And this re. Clinton's relative problems: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/
How the Labour membership voted for him as leader twice is almost beyond comprehension.
The Brexiteers have completely lost their minds this morning
Oh, wait...
Once Article 50 is invoked and the Remainers' goose is cooked, let's see how joyful you remain then, as the civil war between Brexiters starts in earnest.
Some jankiness with animations and low frame rates (latter not really an issue for a TBS game). Customisation in both the sense of appearance and gameplay is improved, and there seems to be a stronger story.
I'll review it at some point, but that'll be a while off. Most missions are about the same length as last time, but I had a sort of optional-story mission yesterday that must've been about an hour and a half.
Oh, you meant stop bathing us in the warm light of your wit and wisdom? Oh well, if you insist..