politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

There’s a rule in betting generally that markets have a tendency to over-react to big news. With the White House race we saw Trump price rise sharply to more than 30% when the initial FBI announcement came about opening up the email case a week and a half ago.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    edited November 2016
    First....like Hillary
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ARSE4US

    The Revenge Of The Nasty Women

    33 minutes 33 seconds
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,848
    edited November 2016
    Second like Trump!
    ARSE! Beaten to it!
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Second like the American people.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Trump!

    Yeh, but this system is rigged.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    edited November 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Trump!

    Now third like Trump would be something.....even in Utah
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    rottenborough said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second like Trump!

    Yeh, but this system is rigged.
    As the winner, Sir, I object to your groundless slur ;)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cashing out at 12x profit. I wish my tough decisions were all like that.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    What did the legal and political establishment think would happen when they abolished the offence of scandalising the court (ie taking potshots at judges) last year?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    On topic, as election day is almost upon us, I'd expect the big players to move in to buy money.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    Morning all.

    A very wise move by OGH to take his profits and run. Those who were seduced into piling on the spread market based solely on Trump’s recent poll rise are set to lose a packet imho.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Urquhart, there's a risk they'll stir up sympathy for the judges, depending on precisely what they say.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Before the email saga all kicked off again Trump was a sell at 204 and now is a sell at 213, so SPIN is not yet quite back to where it was then, presumably reflecting a week of Clinton momentum foregone.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,919
    Off-topic:

    A rather alarming article on Russia's drug addicts and the HIV crisis.

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/11/why-russias-heroin-addicts-are-going-through-hell/
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ARSE4US

    A New Hope (Again)

    24 minutes 24 seconds
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,919
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    One side effect of this is that we can now see *some* Brexiters' attitudes to the rule of law. It is not a pretty sight.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Trump!
    ARSE! Beaten to it!

    Twas Ever Thus .... :smile:
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    edited November 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Cashing out at 12x profit. I wish my tough decisions were all like that.

    Congratulations to Mike on his judgement.

    Nevertheless the 12x is a bit misleading - spread betting doesn't really have a stake; it's simply a bet size. Mike will have had to deposit additional money as margin and, as with any bet, it's the potential loss that matters. Had the weekend's news been that the FBI had uncovered something significant, the swing could easily have been bigger and adverse.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    It all depends on turnout. Around 70 to 80% of Americans are still to vote and will be voting tomorrow. If white working class and lower middle-class voters turnout in higher than expected numbers then that will benefit Trump, especially if more African Americans and millenials stay at home compared to 2012 and it could stiill be close. If white working class turnout is not changed significantly from 2012, African American and millenial turnout is unchanged and Hispanic turnout is up significantly as has been suggested from the early voting then Clinton should win reasonably comfortably
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Quidder, in religion, you know the answer from the start and need only search for evidence to support it. The EU has ideology at its heart.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,848
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    No matter what the question, the answer is always "More Europe". What's more interesting is if they will tone down the rhetoric before the Italian referendum and the French presidential election. Could be two more surprises in store for the EU élites following on from the Brexit vote.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Sandpit, maybe in Italy, but the French system makes things very tricky for Le Pen to try and win.

    Also, you missed out the Austrian presidential election.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ARSE4US

    The Trump Empire Strikes Back

    1200 seconds
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.

    Most of the Leave campaign was predicated on eg the IFS being in the pocket of their EU paymasters.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,848
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    To be fair, there is a right to protest and to free speech. Anyone calling for judges to be targeted with anything more than words will be in serious trouble though, and rightly so.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    https://twitter.com/markcurtis30/status/795259706612862977

    Not sure how a vessel commissioned and built before Brexit can be seen as evidence of post-Brexit anything. Still, we'll can look forward to an enthusiastic embracing of a Trident replacement for real evidence of Brexit Britain's engagement with the wider world!
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.

    Most of the Leave campaign was predicated on eg the IFS being in the pocket of their EU paymasters.
    There is no aspect of Britain's civic society that some Leavers aren't prepared to dismember in pursuit of their mania. And far too few of the other Leavers are willing to stand up to their fellow travellers and tell them that they are dangerously wrong.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.

    Condemnation by association is surely run-of-the-mill in politics. That politician is a terrorist-sympathiser because he attended the same event as ...; that journalist is biased because she once worked for ...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FINAL ARSE4US

    The Return Of The Clintons

    11 minutes 11 seconds
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    If there's an EU to rejoin.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

    As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.
    The pub in question is the George, directly opposite the law courts in the Strand.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    Disagree, think about the demographics.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Mike - I did likewise with one third of my spread bet on Hillary at the same price as your goodself but decided, at least for now, to hold onto the other two thirds.
    It's a difficult call, especially with the likes of 538.com continuing to have her winning < 300 ECVs. But with Florida's result supposedly on on a knife edge and that state alone commanding a winner takes all 29 ECVs, this is definitely not a betting market for the faint hearted.
    Over the past few days I've pretty much stuck with a figure of 308 for Hillary, but I'm open to persuasion either way over the next 40 hours or thereabouts.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreed
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.
    The pub in question is the George, directly opposite the law courts in the Strand.
    Farage made some cryptic comment on Marr show yesterday about being finished with party politics but very much interested in politics. Either he is planning to be on Trump TV or a new career as Britain's resident demagogue using Aaron Banks money.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    Or 2016 USA. Judges in a Supreme Court will from time to time be asked to make judgments which are political. Perhaps it's not entirely right that they are appointed with no public oversight. The current system looks like an establishment insider job. It may be perfectly fine but it might, on reflection, be better to have a more open and transparent appointment process.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FINAL ARSE4US

    The Hispanic Force Awakens

    341 seconds
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2016
    Deleted: beaten to it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    They are elected in the US at most levels
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    peter_from_putney said:

    Mike - I did likewise with one third of my spread bet on Hillary at the same price as your goodself but decided, at least for now, to hold onto the other two thirds.
    It's a difficult call, especially with the likes of 538.com continuing to have her winning < 300 ECVs. But with Florida's result supposedly on on a knife edge and that state alone commanding a winner takes all 29 ECVs, this is definitely not a betting market for the faint hearted.
    Over the past few days I've pretty much stuck with a figure of 308 for Hillary, but I'm open to persuasion either way over the next 40 hours or thereabouts.

    With NV and NH now looking locked in for Clinton and FL early voting looking very promising, I am now at 313 for Clinton on my prediction sheet.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Borough, Evans. Whether it's a general UKIP position remains to be seen.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edmundintokyo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    Disagree, think about the demographics.
    Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    They are elected in the US at most levels
    And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    FPT
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jesseberney/status/795436670057377792

    Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Come on Jack ..... let's be having you!
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

    ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

    FLORIDA - CLINTON
    OHIO - CLINTON
    PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    .......................................................................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Trump :

    Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
    ..........................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

    Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
    ...........................................................

    Electoral College :

    Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

    MAP :

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    JackW said:

    FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

    ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

    FLORIDA - CLINTON
    OHIO - CLINTON
    PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    .......................................................................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Trump :

    Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
    ..........................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

    Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
    ...........................................................

    Electoral College :

    Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

    MAP :

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk

    Not so sure about Ohio Jack.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2016
    The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call Jack
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    Or modern USA ?

    BTW do you know how judges are appointed at present ?

    Br recommendation of the Prime Minister and Lord Chancellor ie they are subject to a degree of political control.

    Now that may well be the best way but trying to shut down any discussion of the issue by shouting "Hitler! Hitler! Hitler!" makes it look like you oppose anyone asking questions of the establishment.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,098
    HYUFD said:

    It all depends on turnout. Around 70 to 80% of Americans are still to vote and will be voting tomorrow. If white working class and lower middle-class voters turnout in higher than expected numbers then that will benefit Trump, especially if more African Americans and millenials stay at home compared to 2012 and it could stiill be close. If white working class turnout is not changed significantly from 2012, African American and millenial turnout is unchanged and Hispanic turnout is up significantly as has been suggested from the early voting then Clinton should win reasonably comfortably

    In Nevada, Florida and North Carolina something like two thirds to three quarters have already voted, though, so those states are less dependent on election day voting.
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    They are elected in the US at most levels
    And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
    The word you're searching for is "accountability"
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,848
    edited November 2016
    On topic, well done Mke on making some money, although for me (and I think most of us) the spreads on something so unpredictable and with a huge spread margin are playing with fire! Saving my money for tomorrow night's popcorn!

    Edit: and as if to make the point, @JackW predicts the landslide!
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Shows how awake I have been. The LA Times does NOT represent %ge of people who will vote for each candidate.

    "We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses."

    In other words - it reflects certainty to vote. Republicans are more enthusiastic, so their score is higher.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rottenborough said:

    JackW said:

    FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

    ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

    FLORIDA - CLINTON
    OHIO - CLINTON
    PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    .......................................................................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Trump :

    Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
    ..........................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

    Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
    ...........................................................

    Electoral College :

    Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

    MAP :

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk

    Not so sure about Ohio Jack.
    I have Ohio as Trump but AZ as Clinton.

    337 by my map.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited November 2016
    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    46th President within 4 years?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    OT "Balls will dance the salsa to Psy’s Gangnam Style next week"

    and people wonder why he keeps getting voted back in...
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited November 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

    As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

    Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,919
    MarqueeMark said:

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    46th President within 4 years?

    Try as I might, I cannot see Hilary running for a second term.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    Roger said:

    The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call as ever Jack

    but no Alaska!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Overmighty power prevents law-makers from taking office:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37893039
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rottenborough said:

    Not so sure about Ohio Jack.

    It was the cliffhanger call of 2016. 0.5 point win for Clinton. Essentially her ground game tips the balance. As with Obama in 08/12 it's worth about 1.5 points in the swing states. This time might even be more as the Trump ground game is awful in many states.

    In 2012 the ARSE cliffhanger was Florida. I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama nicked it by one !! ... :smile:

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Essexit said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    Disagree, think about the demographics.
    Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
    That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call as ever Jack

    but no Alaska!
    Baked Alaska for Trump ....
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call Jack

    The ARSE has never lacked bottom ..... :sunglasses:
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

    Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.
    Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.
    I saw Farage on Marr yesterday and interestingly he said that while he was finished with party politics, he would not stop campaigning.

    He enjoys the attention, but can't be arsed with the responsibility bit.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,919
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Overmighty power prevents law-makers from taking office:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37893039

    Surely that's similar to Sinn Féin not taking their seats in parliament because they refuse the pledge of allegiance to the queen?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

    As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

    Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.
    Its undemocratic if people believe that votes should continue to be held until the 'right' result is achieved and then stopped. And that I would suggest is the mentality of some people.

    Now if any Leavers are saying that people shouldn't be allowed to campaign to re-join the EU after leaving or put re-joining the EU to voters in a referendum then they would be undemocratic.

    Anyway time to do some work, have fun fellow PBers.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited November 2016
    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    As much as I detest UKIP and this current bout of judge baiting, surely she means something like the US Supreme Court?

    Edit: Sorry, point made multiply up thread. Too slow!
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited November 2016
    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
    The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can have 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

    As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

    Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.
    Its undemocratic if people believe that votes should continue to be held until the 'right' result is achieved and then stopped. And that I would suggest is the mentality of some people.

    Now if any Leavers are saying that people shouldn't be allowed to campaign to re-join the EU after leaving or put re-joining the EU to voters in a referendum then they would be undemocratic.

    Anyway time to do some work, have fun fellow PBers.
    As if you would have criticised Leavers for asking for a further vote if Remain had won.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
    Thanks.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
    The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.
    Our void to be filled with three years of Brexit.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    asjohnstone said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    They are elected in the US at most levels
    And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
    The word you're searching for is "accountability"
    Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    brokenwheel said:

    FPT

    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jesseberney/status/795436670057377792

    Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.
    that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Jessop, an interesting comparison, although the law-makers are seeking to take office, rather than not turn up.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

    The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
    When? We are never going to rejoin.

    Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
    How about not leaving in the first place? That wouldn't be rejoining.

    Although if Le Pen gets elected and the EU shatters, the "Brexit" option changes into SODZ - Staying Out of the Deutschmark Zone. Still, the City will sort it out by piling into India in return for allowing huge Indian immigration to Britain. The popular will must be respected, eh? "Brexit means Brexit". What could go wrong?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

    Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
    . @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
    tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


    1930s Germany?

    As much as I detest UKIP and this current bout of judge baiting, surely she means something like the US Supreme Court?
    Would be tough to maintain a balanced court in the UK. We don't have s US system where the executive usually needs to cohabit with a hostile legislature.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    MarqueeMark said:

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    46th President within 4 years?

    A "Benedict XVI Clinton" scenario.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New Hampshire - Uni NH/Grante State - Sample 707 - 3-6 Nov

    Clinton 51 .. Trump 40

    http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_fall_pressengov110616.pdf
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    OT Japan is live-tweeting what I'm pretty sure is an imaginary Godzilla attack.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=#シンゴジ実況

    You have to wonder if this election is really happening or if it's just people on the internet doing a spontaneous distopian role-play thing.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

    ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

    FLORIDA - CLINTON
    OHIO - CLINTON
    PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

    HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

    .......................................................................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Trump :

    Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
    ..........................................................

    Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

    Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
    ...........................................................

    Electoral College :

    Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

    MAP :

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk

    I'd hate to see your ARSE schlonged but that's asking for it.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Tokyo, I hope you survive the Godzilla attack.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
    Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band bprder is at 62%!

    Higberor lower. I am thinking higher.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    @JackW That turnout prediction is quite amazing, it'd mean over 70 million votes for Hillary Clinton if I'm following your logic, and also that Trump should beat George Bush's 62 million in 2004.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Burglar shot in the posterior with bow and arrow:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37868026
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

    * Ohio has 18 ECVs

    Turnout projection 62%
    The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can have 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.
    Apparently Obama plans to spend the next few years campaigning for AV, I'm not sure if that's something we've ever discussed here.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Franklin Pierce/Boston Globe - Sample 1,009 - 1-5 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/local_coverage/herald_bulldog/2016/11/fpuherald_poll_20_on_both_sides_wont_accept_rivals_win
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    I'd hate to see your ARSE schlonged but that's asking for it.

    It's a kind offer on your behalf but I regret you'll be severely disappointed.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tokyo, I hope you survive the Godzilla attack.

    Thanks. I hope America survives its election.
This discussion has been closed.