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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled vote
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled voters in breach of election law
Another controversial Brexit court case in pipeline. CPS considering complaint that leave campaigns misled voters https://t.co/rQqvAT1Glz
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Was there really anything said by either side that was more than just the usual political use of dodgy statistics and figures? The Chancellor warned of every family being £4,300 worse off, of emergency tax rises and spending cuts which haven't prevailed either.
Sorry but this just strikes me as yet another attempt by those who wish to try and have the referendum overturned.
What are they going to go after next? Misleading 'polls' represented on non-zero-based bar charts?
Clinton Bands 538 Huff NYT ======================================== Under 250 24.83% 0.18% 9.33% 250-259 4.72% 0.32% 3.14% 260-269 5.12% 0.74% 4.10% 270-279 6.80% 2.90% 5.47% 280-289 5.83% 2.41% 5.10% 290-299 5.50% 3.79% 6.32% 300-309 5.88% 5.24% 6.89% 310-319 5.76% 5.90% 7.41% 320-329 5.65% 10.62% 9.82% 330-339 5.04% 18.02% 6.40% 340-349 5.79% 10.02% 10.02% 350-359 5.14% 21.57% 6.89% 360-369 3.96% 10.52% 5.45% 370-379 3.13% 4.20% 3.95% 380-389 2.14% 1.63% 2.85% 390-399 1.10% 0.85% 1.86% 400 or over 3.61% 1.11% 5.03% ======================================== Prob Clinton win 65.33% 98.76% 83.43% Implied fair value for spreads markets: Clinton ECVs 292.6 337.7 318.1 Clinton 270-up 38.7 67.8 53.9 Clinton 300-up 22.0 39.4 31.4 Clinton 330-up 10.5 15.1 14.8 Trump 270-up 15.8 0.1 5.7 Trump 300-up 7.7 0.0 2.4 Trump 330-up 3.2 0.0 1.0Just look at that Under 250 line!
Some remainers are playing a very dangerous game.
Trump consolidates the base in NC: now 90% of GOP, up from 80%. 59% of whites, up from 53. Winning white col+ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html …
If Trump is leading with college educated whites then Clinton should be very worried. All the assumptions were based on her leading with them.
Rung by Harborough Council Elections Dept to say unable to put the candidate as a proxy.
Thought it was odd but agreed to find someone else.
Rung back 15 minutes later to say can put the candidate as a proxy - they had had a discussion in the office about it!!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/13/boris-johnson-donald-trump-post-truth-politician
To my shame, I actually swallowed it myself when a poster on here - a well-know Trump supporter - kept spamming it continuously.
Where are those higher interest rates I was promised?
*sighs* Labour lies about a referendum on Lisbon, and nothing happens. Neither said in the referendum campaign was a paragon of honesty, sadly. This sort of thing will either fail or foster lasting resentment.
Edited extra bit: side*, not said.
How do you quantify the cost of membership? Net financial transfers are easy enough but the cost (and benefits) of regulation, social legislation, the opportunity cost (if any) from being within the customs union, the benefit or cost of being in the Single Market, or - for example - the nature of the trade deficits and surplusses are all far more contentious. All the same, they do all add to the sum of the net cost / income, and it's reasonable to include estimates for all within an overall figure. But how to estimate them? That's anyone's guess.
As if the standing of the legal profession weren't already know enough.
daniel a. smith – @electionsmith
Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
The EU is full of shit.
Remainers need to move beyond challenging it and start to understand just why pointless lawsuits insult the intelligence of the electorate and sound like attempts to subvert democracy.
Foolish cases like this contribute to an unstable 'us clever nobs know best' political culture.
Thanks for that.
I have a half-written header from Saturday morning when I was very angry with smug Remainers who seemed to think Thursday's result meant we were not leaving. If more stupid ideas like this case surface, it will most definitely be finished!
Afternoon all,
A brief de-lurk from me, looking forward to tomorrow!
I'm assuming those of you betting are aware of this:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-under-siege-230847
http://votecastr.us/
Very best wishes to all,
DC
The ONS said it was a lie.
The Brexiteers admitted it was not true
The odd thing about it, though, is that it was a completely unnecessary lie. If they'd said £200m a week, or whatever the actual figure is, it would have sounded just as impressive to the average voter. So presumably they wanted Remain to challenge it, for the reason you give. I'm not sure that stands to their credit, if so.
Cheer up, woman of the people Gina Miller is a good spokesperson.
Not very good at this original thinking are you, Scott. Stick to copying off twatter.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912398/NATO-puts-300-000-troops-high-alert-readiness-confrontation-Russia-fears-grow-Putin-preparing-attack-West.html
As I said, dishonest. Not specifically a lie. Though you are probably right, the leave campaign probably used it to try and force the remain side to either accept or explain the figure, neither was a good outcome for them.
Trying to blame that on us leaving the EU -lol
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/07/two-prisoners-have-escaped-from-hmp-pentonville/
.
I hold no brief for Johnson (IMO, he's a prize plum pudding), but what he actually said was this: “I think all this talk of world war three and bubonic plague is demented, frankly.”
To claim that an obvious piece of ridicule by hyperbole is a "deception" is a bit rich.
Poor old Mrs May. Loses half her Cabinet.
After talking about various wars but mainly WW2, the Prime Minister warned:
Whenever we turn our back on Europe, sooner or later we come to regret it.
We have always had to go back in, and always at a much higher cost.
The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe.
Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?
...
That was true in 1914, in 1940 and in 1989. Or, you could add 1588, 1704 and 1815. And it is just as true in 2016.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-the-uks-strength-and-security-in-the-eu-9-may-2016
It is hardly unfair to characterise that as a warning of World War Three. He is certainly warning of war in Europe at the very least, and of invasion by Russia: In the last few years, we have seen tanks rolling into Georgia and Ukraine.
We don't send £350m a week to the EU. We never did.
It's a straight lie.
Re the rebate; the money never technically leaves the government's bank account does it?
There's no getting away from this. It was a straightforward and deliberate lie. I agree with Alastair, however, that this isn't a matter for a criminal prosecution, and I don't expect it will go anywhere.