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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

Clinton now ahead in both Florida and North Carolina. If that is sustained, the race to be Next #POTUS is done and dusted. #ElectionNight

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    First!
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Question - why do CNN not report their exit polls (at least the numbers) in their TV coverage? Is it just to maintain the suspense and keep people watching?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Key race alert......new thread...oh you know that...
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2016
    I just whacked 1.5k on Clinton. Free money whilst it lasts.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    edited November 2016
    Fifth, like er....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump doing better in Rural areas worse in Urban areas, since there are more Urban than Rural areas he loses.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Nice picture of Hils on the threader.

    Bring on a lady president!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    Trump doing better with white voters in Florida...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    FL Clinton lead down to 55k, with 78% in.
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    SirBernardSirBernard Posts: 73
    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I remember Trump saying he could win New Jersey.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    FPT:
    ToryJim said:

    IanB2 said:

    In Britain the rural areas are always last; in the US they seem to have overcome this, I guess because they are smaller?

    I believe they count in situ not centrally which speeds things up
    That's correct. The precinct officials read the results off the machines and phone them in. None of these results we get on the night are officially certified. It's not like the UK where the result isn't revealed until the returning officer declares the official, certified result.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    Speedy said:

    Trump doing better in Rural areas worse in Urban areas, since there are more Urban than Rural areas he loses.

    No, more rural areas but less voters in them!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    Danny565 said:

    I remember Trump saying he could win New Jersey.

    What on the back of his excellent record of successful casino operations?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited November 2016
    FL back to a 90k lead with 81% in
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Did anyone take my tip


    Per CNN, Jason Kander is ahead in the early exit polls. This would be a huge pickup for the Dems. http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/missouri/senate …
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    Monksfield said:

    Fifth, like er....

    a columnist?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Presumably CNN has coverage for its US voters and the international viewer stuff we are seeing.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    FL back to a 90k lead with 1% in

    1%?
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    On Senate news from 538:
    Perhaps the most shocking result so far is in Missouri. Democrat Jason Kander looks to be running very strongly in the exit polls. That would be a huge pickup for Democrats.

    They look like they have a a 54-46 lead on the exit poll which would make it much more likely that they get to 50+ they need.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    FL back to a 90k lead with 1% in

    1%?
    Sorry, 81%!!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    As I go off for sleep, Donald's Done For yes?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Apparently the vote reporting showing as 0% means it's just the early voter count. So Clinton still has a load of votes in the South East.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    FL back to a 90k lead with 1% in

    1%?
    81%? 91%? 101%?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    700,000 votes counted in Dade but described as 0% - so need to be careful.

    How many total votes in Dade in 2012?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    A chunky 6% lead for Clinton in North Carolina with 52% in....
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    ToryJim said:

    IanB2 said:

    In Britain the rural areas are always last; in the US they seem to have overcome this, I guess because they are smaller?

    I believe they count in situ not centrally which speeds things up
    That's correct. The precinct officials read the results off the machines and phone them in. None of these results we get on the night are officially certified. It's not like the UK where the result isn't revealed until the returning officer declares the official, certified result.
    Yes, the way we do it is bullshit.

    The Americans can call their election at the same time we do, despite the 5+ hour time difference.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Those coloured blue squares in Miami Dade only include early votes....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    rcs1000 said:

    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    FL back to a 90k lead with 1% in

    1%?
    81%? 91%? 101%?
    Sorry, 81%
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    SirBernardSirBernard Posts: 73
    Democrats have just won the Illinois Senate seat according to ABC
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    84% in, back to 60k :D
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    FL back to a 90k lead with 1% in

    1%?
    81%? 91%? 101%?
    Sorry, 81%
    0.6% with 84%
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm ready to call CNN Georgia exit poll the american Bullsh*t.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Those coloured blue squares in Miami Dade only include early votes....
    Miami-Dade has more people in it than the 8 counties of the panhandle.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Miami-Dade 80% in.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Are the % counted figures based on votes or precincts?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Hillary leading in Texas at the moment.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Florida is heading for a recount.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Still lots of precincts to report in heavily Democratic Miami, which should counterbalance the Panhandle.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Florida back in play. Trump could edge it.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Those coloured blue squares in Miami Dade only include early votes....
    Miami-Dade has more people in it than the 8 counties of the panhandle.
    Miami-Dade is already 80% in...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Those coloured blue squares in Miami Dade only include early votes....
    Miami-Dade has more people in it than the 8 counties of the panhandle.
    Miami-Dade is already 80% in...
    Source?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Feels like Betfair should be down to 1.04/1.05 for Hillary now..
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,226
    Jobabob said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    ToryJim said:

    IanB2 said:

    In Britain the rural areas are always last; in the US they seem to have overcome this, I guess because they are smaller?

    I believe they count in situ not centrally which speeds things up
    That's correct. The precinct officials read the results off the machines and phone them in. None of these results we get on the night are officially certified. It's not like the UK where the result isn't revealed until the returning officer declares the official, certified result.
    Yes, the way we do it is bullshit.

    The Americans can call their election at the same time we do, despite the 5+ hour time difference.
    Having been to a fair few counts I'm much happier reporting tallies of all votes not a partial guesstimate
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    ToryJim said:

    IanB2 said:

    In Britain the rural areas are always last; in the US they seem to have overcome this, I guess because they are smaller?

    I believe they count in situ not centrally which speeds things up
    That's correct. The precinct officials read the results off the machines and phone them in. None of these results we get on the night are officially certified. It's not like the UK where the result isn't revealed until the returning officer declares the official, certified result.
    Fiddling around verifying every ballot box to the last vote takes a lot of the time in the UK. It's a safeguard, I guess, although the likelihood of either stuffing or removing votes from the box even without it seems low.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hardly anyone lives in the Panhandle I thought?
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    SirBernardSirBernard Posts: 73
    39% of the Georgia electorate was ethnic minority. That has to be very good for Clinton?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    Trump only 0.2% behind in Florida now.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Trump's going to take Florida...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    SouthamObserver said:

    Florida back in play. Trump could edge it.

    NY times have it as 52% Trump win probability
    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    alex. said:

    Are the % counted figures based on votes or precincts?

    They certainly aren't votes.

    I think they're precincts but be careful they can be completed precincts so highly misleading when partial precinct in.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    OMG, a tie at 86%!
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Trump currently ahead in FL...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    And Trump pulls ahead in Florida...
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    Yes, I could be wrong.
    Those coloured blue squares in Miami Dade only include early votes....
    Miami-Dade has more people in it than the 8 counties of the panhandle.
    Miami-Dade is already 80% in...
    Source?
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Looks like Trump might take Florida, got in at 11 just now on BF.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida

    700 votes in it right now
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    RobD said:

    OMG, a tie at 86%!

    Any sign of some Hanging Chads.....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Hampshire exit poll:

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 45.8%
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SirBernard said:

    39% of the Georgia electorate was ethnic minority. That has to be very good for Clinton?

    Yes, although Democrats do diabolically with white voters in the Deep South.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Hillary 1.16.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124
    SirBernard said:

    Florida suddenly looking close with the panhandle still to come...

    It might matter if there was a big swing to Trump in the mid-West, but as even Ohio is close ...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Back to a 4k Clinton lead with 87%
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    The Democrats thought they had Florida. They're going to lose it. This could be the story of the night.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Florida is very close...
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    So if Trump sneaks Florida what other states we looking at to see if Trump has no chance of winning? Ohio? North Carolina?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Just laid at 7
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    CNN coverage is just awesome :)
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Miami/Palm Beach should carry FL over the line I think.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    RobD said:

    Back to a 4k Clinton lead with 87%

    Now at 1k...
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    64% chance for Trump in Florida according to NYTimes.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Clinton leading again FL
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    How did I get it online?
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    Still missing plenty of dem votes she wins FL
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    jonny83 said:

    So if Trump sneaks Florida what other states we looking at to see if Trump has no chance of winning? Ohio? North Carolina?

    None really.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    Yes!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MaxPB said:

    Looks like Trump might take Florida, got in at 11 just now on BF.

    Bf keeps crashing or blocking me, I don't know
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    If Trump gets Florida, he's going to get a respectable EC vote.

    If......
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    Washinton, Holmes, Ooklosa are the three remaining panhandle counties, but only c. 40k votes (total) to come from them.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The data analyst on CNN is absolutely brilliant.

    He's found his life's calling doing this job.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I think CNN is misrepresenting what % votes counted means?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    John King's auctioneer shtick working great with this FL dingdong on CNN. But he knows Clinton's going to win.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    CNN live on their homepage
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Jobabob said:

    Miami/Palm Beach should carry FL over the line I think.

    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    CNN is mind boggingly brilliant

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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,997
    Got in on Florida at 4-1 10 mins ago. Down to 1k votes with 16% come - Some in Dem areas, some in Rep areas.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarqueeMark said:

    If Trump gets Florida, he's going to get a respectable EC vote.

    If......

    It will make carnage in the Spreads, Florida has 29 EV.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Tony said:

    64% chance for Trump in Florida according to NYTimes.

    If Clinton wins Florida we can discount that NY Times counter.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    About 250,000 still to come in palm beach
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited November 2016
    115 votes in it in Florida!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Now only 120 votes in it :o
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Dadge said:

    John King's auctioneer shtick working great with this FL dingdong on CNN. But he knows Clinton's going to win.

    Is it John King, the analyst? He's excellent.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    120 votes in it in FL at the moment with some of the panhandle yet to report. I think Trump might take FL.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    200,000 to come in broward
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Washinton, Holmes, Ooklosa are the three remaining panhandle counties, but only c. 40k votes (total) to come from them.

    Trump is winning in Tampa now.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    I've got meetings tomorrow so better go to bed...

    Stick a fork in the Donald.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Artist said:

    Tony said:

    64% chance for Trump in Florida according to NYTimes.

    If Clinton wins Florida we can discount that NY Times counter.
    Well, it doesn't say 100% ;)
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    Dade almost finished - negligible to come
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clinton leads by 115 in Florida.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,414
    Dadge said:

    John King's auctioneer shtick working great with this FL dingdong on CNN. But he knows Clinton's going to win.

    Anyone who can do arithmetic would know that.
This discussion has been closed.