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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After his Strictly successes it’s hard to imagine Ed Balls not
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After his Strictly successes it’s hard to imagine Ed Balls not making a return to mainstream politics
One of the great distractions this autumn has been the extraordinary run that ex-LAB cabinet minister and shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has had on Strictly. I don’t follow the show myself but every weekend I’ve been hunting out the video clips of his Saturday night performances which have been stunning.
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Maybe he has too much sense to get back into politics.
FPT
See what happens when you try to create an AV thread...
Yeah, such a class act that he lost a safe Labour seat.
He'd have a real shot at 2020 if he was Labour leader (May isn't really pulling up any trees), but not sure
a) He wants to head back in
b) Can beat Corbyn.
Come on, Ed.
I suspect that the two round nature of elections in France makes it less likely Mme Le Pen makes it there.
In the Netherlands, while I assumed that the PVV was likely to top the polls (and they were a long way clear earlier this year and last year), they are now lagging the VVD meaningfully. It may be that there are understated; but even if they are, the proportional nature of the Dutch political system, which ensures that they would need to partner with at least one (and probably two) of D66 (Eurofanatics who topped the Euroelection polls), the Greens, Labour Party, the Socialists, and the Christian Democrats. That severely restrains their ability to do anything.
Democrats Under Barack Obama
-11 seats in Senate
-60 seats in House
-14 governorships
-900 state legislative seats
Worst since 1922.
wallfence , despite the horror and outrage, it isn't exactly new. I want to say bush snr (could be wrong on which president) had a huge push on deporting even those born in the us to illegals "back" to central America if they had committed serious crimes.The down side is that is credited with the strengthening of the gangs in places like guatemala.
In answer to rcs1000 question on the Mexican border wall:
The Mexican government will be made to pay. It may not all be in dollars, but pay they will. At this moment new parts of the existing fencing is going up. Will a solid high wall follow, I don't know, but it's easier to do than you think; just ask the Israelis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixi9_cciy8w
There is nothing ridiculous, as you say, about building a wall.
But it is worth remembering that more than 95% of the 11m illegals in the US did not get there by walking across the Rio Grande. They did it by crossing the border legally and the not returning.
https://medium.com/@SnoozeInBrief/an-analysis-of-donald-trumps-election-win-and-the-prospects-for-his-presidency-f6a87eef6d70#.uo4mhhtx3
The biggest joke in US is everybody knows where the bulk of illegals are hired and a blind eye is turned eg Go to southern California & everybody knows the vast majority of those in the fields are illegal, etc etc etc.
But my money is against it. Why? Because politics usually follows the path of least resistance. And, really, all that has happened in the world in the last year is that we - who have never been happy in the EU, and where polls have had us in favour of leaving for around half of the last 20 years - voted to leave the EU, and Donald Trump sneaked a victory against the least inspiring Democratic candidate in 50 years.
Look around, and there are at least as many signs of swings to the status quo as against it. The PVV has seen its poll leads go from 15 seats to a deficit of 5 seats. In Greece, New Democracy is now miles ahead of SYRIZA. In Spain, Rajoy's PP gained share and won seats, while Podemos remained stuck in third.
Why should France and the Netherlands not follow Spain's lead rather than the US?
Farage changed history, but in the manner of an arsonist or one of Eric Pickles shitty armchair auditors.
He doesn't have any interest in actually running anything or being a serious politician.
Truth be told, as in the UK, the most useful thing would be to crack down on undocumented workers. People come foe work. Make it harder to work, fewer people come. (See Switzerland.)
The US have got themselves in a ridiculous situation. 11m+ illegals, and now huge number of businesses have grown up where their business model depends on being able to hire them normally on terrible terms and conditions.
If there was any real interest in stopping employment of illegals, it could be done in a matter of days -
Make employment of an illegal a $100,000 fine for the employer. Half goes to the INS budget, half to the general treasury. And the employer also has to pay for a 1st class flight home for the illegal and his/her entire family. Business class not allowed.
Suddenly every INS agent would be checking everything and everyone....
Suggest that. Giggle as the tumbleweed rolls by in silence as the anti-immigration types look at their shoes. And wonder about their gardener....
But the opportunity is finally here (elex/ref: Ne, Ge, Fr, It). Plus the anti-globalisation and islamist waves are growing.
We only have to be lucky once.
*runs and hides*
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/13/rexit-trumpism-donald-trump-nigel-farage?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
hes just a tool either way.
One thing though - the price of some goods and services for the 'liberal elite' will go up. That is a consequence I am willing to bear.
If the US left NAFTA and imposed swingeing restrictions on the ability of Mexicans to visit the US, could you see any other outcome?
Longer term, European politicians cosying up to Trump may end up regretting it. He is not a favourite in Europe. Le Pen, for example, could well suffer as her rivals stir up the latent anti-Americanism that does not lie too far below the surface in France.
Mr Smithson thinks he is a smooth operator.. As soon as Strictly is over and (if serious about a return) Ed has to say the unsayable, his popularity will revert to what it was before.
As a politician it will take a little time to persuade me that the childish know-it-all who sat arrogantly gurning and gesticulating during PMQs is fit for a return to front-line politics. That we are speculating at all is more a comment on the abject state of Labour than a compliment to Balls.
Blair's craven attitude towards Bush was genuinely humiliating and worse for Britain.
http://nation.time.com/2012/09/07/immigration-update-arizona-police-can-now-ask-papers-please/
Take European NATO members. Yes, they all spent too little on defence, and relied on the US. But the corollary of that is that they had to defer to the US and the US had an effective veto on their foreign policies. That will change.
Ok, I accept he is humiliating you.
But, me - not so much.
He's doing a fine job of sticking it to the know alls who demonstrably know very little - and enjoying every moment.
Of course, why so you think I've always been so opposed to Chinese investment or any kind of free trade deal with China that depends on the UK opening up investment without the reverse being true.
On the other had he could have been leading Labour.
'Le Pens to work with Trump’s campaign manager as Front National support surges'
http://tinyurl.com/jlb4drs
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/2016/11/09/25001-20161109ARTFIG00037-election-americaine-le-fn-applaudit-trump-avant-meme-le-resultat.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017