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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest leader approval polling once again highlights Corbyn’s failure to make any breakthrough with his own age group
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Comments
Seriously though, that is a very impressive 30+ amongst 18-24YO by Mrs M.
It's almost two weeks since the POTUS elections and STILL we wait for Ladbrokes to settle their Clinton's Winning Margin of the Popular Vote market.
Should Shadsy visit PB.com anytime soon, perhaps he'd be so kind as to provide some indication as regards when Laddies expect to pay out on what are clearly winning bets.
This is Bluewash territory, surely?
I had assumed Fillon would go through easily next weekend, but after reading in this article that "42% mostly voted for Sarkozy does not win", I began to get concerned about the large red figure I had against Juppe on Betfair.
Presumably most of those voting to stop Sarkozy will have voted for Fillon yesterday as Juppe was regarded as favourite to go through anyway. Question is, how many of that 42% will bother to vote next weekend now they do not have the incentive of voting to stop Sarkozy and how many of those will give their votes to Juppe now that the "stop Sarkozy" job has been done.
Think this is going to be closer than the first round might indicate.
http://www.lesechos.fr/elections/primaire-a-droite/0211515174240-primaire-a-droite-les-ressorts-du-vote-fillon-2044422.php
But, alas, it no longer does.
Bottom line is noone really cares in the USA once the president has been announced.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-21/british-governments-counter-extremist-unit-shuts-down-milo-yiannopoulos-speech
What a shameful shower of shite. The police should have just done their job and policed the event. What we learn from this is that you can overcome political or ideological opponents in the UK simply by offering threats of violence. We can do better.
So Labour is doomed until universal euthanasia is approved.
*chortle*
(Good afternoon, everyone)
Cataclysmically bad for Labour.
But is it my imagination, or are the older age groups becoming increasingly set against Mr Corbyn? (Sorry, don't know where to look for previous tables of the same info.)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true
The counting process does seem like a bit of a rum do.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-poll-idUKKBN13F11L?il=0
France's Francois Fillon was seen winning next Sunday's second round of conservative primaries against Alain Juppe, in the first opinion poll published after the two men were seen this Sunday qualifying for the runoff.
Fillon would win with 56 percent of the votes vs 44 percent for Juppe, according to the Opinionway poll carried out amid 3,095 voters who took part in the first round of the primaries this Sunday.
(Reporting by Ingrid Melander and Michel Rose; Editing by Sandra Maler)
Sample is of those who have bothered to vote
I wonder where the value might go if the market really got the idea that le Pen might win. Farage reckons that would be 'game over' for the EU.
Note: This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
Arizona not properly updated for one.
Alaska about 40,000 votes out...
The sub 47% band is probably a winner, but I'm afraid I lost faith in CNN to do their sums properly (And Betfair is going off their info) to back at very short prices.
If France turns it's back on the EU by voting in Le Pen it would be game over IMO as well.
They achieved a swing of just over 4%, in the six States they gained from Democrats, compared to a swing of 0.5% across the rest of the country. Excluding Florida, where they only needed a small swing, the swing was 5%.
V. interesting analysis and one I agree with. In that scenario peripheral Euro denominated governments are the sell of the century, to my mind.
You're completely and utterly deluded by your love of Juncker and the rest of those idiots. If France votes for Le Pen they are leaving the EU.
I couldn't make the state totals add up to the national total (they always seemed to be a few votes short)- which made me think they update the state totals slower than national.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xhNsDknxws1RDjHN-U3MkkLAr5uMi6W82_S82GWmNXQ/edit?usp=sharing
http://edition.cnn.com/election
Your spreadsheet seems on first glance to have higher numbers than CNN are reporting?
Unless I am misreading it? CNN have Hilary on 62,523,126 votes at present?
http://www.frontnational.com/pdf/fin-euro.pdf
There is a 12 point plan on her website for how to leave the Euro. Unfortunately, it's not a very well thought out plan, and would involved massive capital flight. Indeed, I think France would effectively leave the Euro through capital flight on the day of a Le Pen victory. There's no (political) way Target-2 could be used to fund bets on Frexit.
Personally suspect an element of 'this is happening - what can we find to explain it, rather than it actually being the cause but you asked...'
1) There's a halfway house deal negotiated and agreed. Secondary negotiations for proper departure will follow.
2) There's a defined period of gradual withdrawal, a transition period during which we re-acclimatise to being outside the EU, after which we move to a full departure deal which is set in stone.
Looks like Hammond is winning the battle against the Brexiteers. Maybe that's what is cheering up sterling.
Consistent with only Cali being added. (Check the last state update dates)
Traditionally, such capital flows are handled by Target-2. But the amounts would not be absorbable by Target-2, and it would be politically unacceptable for the Germans, through Target-2, to effectively pay hedge funds to bet against the Euro,
Furthermore, all French banks would be shut out of the funding markets, or would need to use their subsidiaries in stronger countries, as no-one would like to be owed a French Euro.
Ultimately, the way to the Leave the Euro, for someone who wished to devalue, is to declare a four day bank holiday, implement capital controls, and deal with a period (weeks to months) of chaos.
For Greece, it would have been indisputably the right call. For France, it's a more balanced question, not least because Frexit would come along with the Front National. And the Front National's economic policy is based on the premise that France suffers from too little government control rather than too much.
The winner is UKIP.
Indeed. The US president's favourite brit is their leader.
Hammond has clearly won May over. She spoke like his glove puppet today.
Dave Wasserman's spreadsheet is the best reference:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19
I'm going to propose they move to Wasserman/Cook for future elections.