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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP meltdown continues with Diane James, the last elected
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP meltdown continues with Diane James, the last elected leader, quitting the party
This afternoon’s big news from UKIP has been that Diane James, who won the November leadership contest only to pull out after 18 days, has now quit the party. She wants to remain as an MEP and is hoping to sit as an independent.
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Will the last person to leave UKIP please turn out the (traditional filament) light?
Support for EU on the rise.
Corbyn (+1)
May (-1)
Corbyn lead over May +2 among Labour voters.
You would need to have a heart of stone....
How well off is Farage? He will be picking up a very generous MEP's salary + expenses. Would he want to give them up?
Diane James’ decision to quit highlights the problem at the top, no one has a clue what to do with UKIP’s direction of travel, now that its mission is accomplished. Doubt Paul Nuttall, should he become leader, will help much with supporters who appear to be drifting away.
"Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings can only be described as abysmal. One in five (20%) think he’s doing a good job (including a chunk of Conservative, UKIP and Lib Dem voters whose observations are probably based on irony) but 54% say bad job, implying a net approval rating of -34."
"There are likely darker days to come for the Prime Minister, but she remains in solid positive territory with a net +22 rating."
"Tim Farron’s performance (-19) compares to that of Nick Clegg at about the same time in the cycle."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-snap-general-election-ad-agency-krow-bmg-pollsters-jon-trickett_uk_58333befe4b0c6c8bc16758a?n3ffg4tji2ju4n29
First Past the Post almost removes the potential of UKIP gaining MPs going forwards barring a massive surge and what's going to provide that surge?
Incidentally I do wonder if Tony Blair's 1999 use of the Parliament Act to enforce Proportional Representation voting in the European Parliament ended up killing Britain's EU membership. Prior to PR voting being introduced, in 1994, 80 out of 87 seats went to Labour and the Tories (who'd already undergone Black Wednesday). Lib Dems were third on just 2 seats.
PR voting helped give the opportunity to win seats, vote share and the oxygen of publicity to the nascent UKIP. It helped Farage get elected, as he's perpetually failed to do in Westminster and helped make him and UKIP household names. Without PR, would any of that have ever happened?
Blair and the Left's obsession with tinkering with alternative voting systems potentially caused the death of both Scottish Labour and our EU membership. Interesting unintended consequences and who could have imagined both when this was being done in the late nineties?
If it so enormously wrong with the UK, what does that tell us about the other countries polled?
They actually propose that the UK is more pro-EU than France, while Italy is much more euro-sceptic than both.
If the error is consistent, the EU will collapse if the people are given referendums. The only big country whose electorate don't want out is Germany.
Incidentally he clearly meets the threshold of political service for a peerage. Far far more so than many appointments so I'd have no problem with it.
For some reason the licensing arrangements of some nightclub or other in Islington is something that a national BBC audience needs to be informed about.
Somehow I doubt that they would have the same interest in the goings on at a Working Men's Club in Pontefract.
Broadly, the EU is much more popular in countries other than the UK. The most Eurosceptic large country is Italy, where there is something like +15 on "the EU is good for Italy", which is not a big lead, and which could easily invert. Hungary and Austria also have relatively small pro-EU majorities.
Small countries, like the Netherlands, Ireland, etc are much more Europhilic. The statistic that amused me was from a Piel survey in the Netherlands from earlier this year that had more than half of PVV voters (i.e. Geert Wilders party) agreeing with the statement "the Euro is good for the Netherlands".
Only 20% think Corbyn's doing a good job, but a whole chunk of those are Tories who ironically think he's doing a fantastic job (of hastening the destruction of the Labour Party as an electoral force)!
Still the young will be able to protest on the streets on 8th May 2020 about another five years of Tory rule, conveniently forgetting that they didn't get around to voting.
https://www.ft.com/content/7ea6837a-ad83-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24
"We now face a task of creating a new Britain from the fourth industrial revolution - powered by the internet of things and big data to develop cyber physical systems and smart factories"
What the actual feck. How's this meant to resonate.
A party such as Labour, which can only command strong net approval ratings amongst the under 25s, is obviously in serious trouble electorally.
At least Trump writes his own nonsense on twitter.
Leaverstan will be shafted by Brexit ( Nissan being a Canary snatched from the Coal Mine in time ) and have no one to care. The Tories will never need the sort of Labour seats these are and their votes only count in close national referendums. It's safe to say we won't be having anymore referendums for decades. So Leaverstan is UKIP's big growth area. As all the forces that drove Brexit grind remorselessly on and the logic of FPTP reasserts it's self the capacity for UKIP to do to Labour what the SNP did to them in Scotland is real.
I wonder if Lord Hume counts back in 1963?
That is exactly what Ed Llewellyn did last month - he was in Cameron's resignation honours but he won't be in the Lords whilst Ambassador to France.
Farage could do the same but as you say there's no point other than being able to call yourself Lord (which Farage might be keen on).
Inner city shitholes are still inner city shitholes even if they voted Remain.
With Macron at 18, Valls at 42 and Montebourg at 90 I do wonder if there's not good value on a leftist. With so long to go and with things being so unpredictable surely one of them will come good at least for use as a trading bet ?
Personally, I think the party needs a new fighting logo and perhaps later, a change of name. We shall see.
' There is also the Democrats’ advantage in the electoral college, the fact that Trump doesn’t have much campaign money and virtually no campaign infrastructure and the fact that many Republicans are trying to distance themselves from him. Indeed, it’s so hard to see how Trump can win that the real issue for 2016 may not be the White House, but rather Congress, which Republicans currently control and, in the case of an electoral bloodbath for the GOP, could potentially lose. If that were to happen, Hillary Clinton would have a Democratic Congress and the opportunity to push through dozens of pieces of progressive legislation.
Ironically, Trump’s rise, rather than signalling a turn toward nativist, authoritarian politics in the US, could, in the electorate’s rejection of him, usher in a more progressive political era. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/11/trump-cant-win-election-america-political-earthquake
Nothing is guaranteed.
Replacing him with a local councillor would help the LibDems there.
"Jeremy Corbyn has promised Labour will work with business leaders if they "live up to their side of the deal"."
What is the implication? If business don't live up to their side of the deal as interpreted by Corbyn, Corbyn won't as the PM work with business?
***** That was the sound of my mind blowing.
She promises too much and then backs down. I am wondering whether she actually thinks things through, despite her reputation.
A clever leader would do well from the exploiting the clear disconnect between the electorate and their 'representatives' in Parliament.
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/800779102475063296
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxzwVw6UcAAT5ev.jpg
At least we can now read what their plans are:
Banning refugees and muslims entering the USA using the 1980 Refugee Act.
Deport all illegal immigrants who have been arrested committing crimes.
Build a 1989 mile long wall on the mexican border.
Basically Trump campaign promises.
2. 32% would imply meaningful increase in support relative to Labour under Ed Miliband. Where are all the extra voters meant to come from? Unlikely that any voters positioned to right of Labour under Miliband are going to want to support Labour under Corbyn.
WRONG.... 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.32%. Right.
‘ Thirty-one migrants were found living in cramped conditions in a four bedroom house in north-west London.
Brent Council found 26 beds crammed into squalid conditions in the Wembley house, as well a bed in a rodent infested garden shack made from wood offcuts.
A total of 31 people were confirmed to be living there at the same time. Among them, a group of four tenants was found squashed into a box room on two bunk beds and six were found in another bedroom.
Brent Council’s head of private housing services, Spencer Randolph, told the BBC they were “paying somewhere between £60 and £65 a week.”
He added: “It’s dreadful to think that somebody could be exploited to living in what isn’t even a shed.”
The shack was found to house the only woman living at the address and did not have any heating or lights.
One of the residents, Bagharad, revealed he lived in the house on Napier Road because he worked as a carer for the elderly and was only paid £30 a day. ‘
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/thirtyone-migrants-crammed-into-four-bedroom-london-house-a3305391.html
And the plurality of inner city residents are in council/social housing:
Vauxhall
Council/social renting 42%
Private renting 32%
Owner occupier 24%
Islington South
Council/social renting 45%
Private renting 27%
Owner occupier 25%
Hackney North
Council/social renting 35%
Private renting 34%
Owner occupier 28%
Camberwell & Peckham
Council/social housing 50%
Private renting 22%
Owner occupier 26%
Holborn & St Pancreas
Council/social renting 44%
Private renting 28%
Owner occupier 27%
Tottenham
Council/social housing 33%
Private renting 35%
Owner occupier 30%
All data from 2011 as per UKPR - I suspect the proportion of owner occupiers is now even lower in inner London.
Now there are some affluent, successful people in what I refer to as Remainastan - PB's own Meeks and Thomas for example - but I suspect they are something of a minority.
Having the wrong turnout model regularly kills polls.
I always like to use a clean 10/10 certainty to vote without models.
They won.
' It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain. '
' Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain. '
' That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready. '
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
No one is denying they got what they wanted re Brexit.
CON 38
LAB 27
UKIP 11
LD 7
OTH 8
D/K 10
The LD have the biggest problem with certainty to vote and retaining their past voters.
Only the Tory vote is rock solid.
Simply the numbers reflect an opposition in turmoil, with lots of non Tory voters being demoralized, not knowing who to vote for or even if it's worth to vote at all.