politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s autumn statement is the first big Treasury event since

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s autumn statement is the first big Treasury event since GE2005 when Osborne has not been Chancellor or Shadow

Very best wishes to my friend @PHammondMP as he delivers his first Autumn Statement today & helps UK prepare for challenges ahead

Read the full story here

bigjohnowls

George Osborne ‏@George_Osborne 4h4 hours ago
Very best wishes to my friend @PHammondMP as he delivers his first Autumn Statement today & helps UK prepare for challenges ahead

(No money Left)

bigjohnowls

2nd like Hammond

Luckyguy1983

Who?

TheWhiteRabbit

Yesterday's borrowing figures were better than expected. What I don't know is whether that more positive understanding of, in particular, tax receipts, will form part of the OBR forecast.

JosiasJessop

(pointless question time):
PMQ's; what are the yellow lanyards that Grant (the first questioner) and another Labour MP appear to be wearing? Security passes?

[Deleted User]

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's a douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

PlatoSaid

@patrick We're in total agreement re your last point on FPT

MaxPB

DecrepitJohnL said:

Tissue_Price said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Not many comments this morning. Have all the other pb regulars been exposed as Philip Hammond's SpAds?

It's come to something when an Autumn Statement is one of the duller political days of the year. Phillip Hammond notwithstanding.

Mind you, under George Osborne, the autumn statement morphed into a second budget. Did that happen under Gordon Brown? It all seems so long ago.

Brown called it the pre-budget report, he introduced it. Before that the chancellor only made an annual statement to Parliament, the Budget.

Lucian_Fletcher

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

I would strongly suggest that anyone who reads the analysis here and loses money isn't reading very clearly. I supported the losing side in both those big events but won several times my total stake money. Remember that the odds were very long against both events so you could still think the losing side more likely to win and think the value bet is on the other side. That's how gambling works. I would think the PB community is well up on the year from political bets.

Hell, I'm even up on the gee gees.

Though my biggest winner has been fantasy football!

Scott_P

JosiasJessop said:

(pointless question time):
PMQ's; what are the yellow lanyards that Grant (the first questioner) and another Labour MP appear to be wearing? Security passes?

Yes, but the yellow lanyards are SNP branded

Blue_rog

When will Corbin give with his "Phyllis from Bolton contacted me with...."?

MaxPB

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Yesterday's borrowing figures were better than expected. What I don't know is whether that more positive understanding of, in particular, tax receipts, will form part of the OBR forecast.

I plugged the October PSF into my own model and it spit out 0.3% growth for October alone, that is also close to the ONS rate for September. If the economy is anywhere near that strong then the chancellor may have a lot of room for manoeuvre.

Scott_P

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

JosiasJessop said:

(pointless question time):
PMQ's; what are the yellow lanyards that Grant (the first questioner) and another Labour MP appear to be wearing? Security passes?

Yes, but the yellow lanyards are SNP branded

Ooops. Wrong party then.

JosiasJessop

Corbyn coming across a little shouty.

bigjohnowls

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

bigjohnowls

Ma y err errr err is no Dave

SouthamObserver

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's a douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Got it - so when Trump openly mocked a disabled person in front of thousands of people at a rally, what was he trying to achieve there? What emotion was he appealing to? And what is he seeking to achieve by placing white supremacists into his administration and policy advice teams?

Scott_P

@JohnJCrace: The first 10 places on the government front bench are remainers. A clue to the Brexit damage limitation of the Autumn statement?

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Scott_P

SouthamObserver said:

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

And I had a bet on him doing so

Big_G_NorthWales

bigjohnowls said:

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

Until he attacked the NHS for requiring passport identification - massively popular in UK

JosiasJessop

bigjohnowls said:

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

'Sovial care'? A blending of Soviet and social?

But yes, Corbyn won that IMO. There appears to be a trend I haven't noticed before: he starts off in his usual voice, then raises the anger towards the end.

He doesn't quite pull it off, but it's more effective than his previous efforts.

Scott_P

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Until he attacked the NHS for requiring passport identification - massively popular in UK

https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/801398006981525505

PlatoSaid

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.

Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.

And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.

Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.

Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.

Mortimer

I see Corbo is trying to help the poor ailing NHS Crisis, who has been knocked off the front pages this year because actual, rather than imaginary or hypothetical, things have been happening.....

MP_SE

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Advice to live by, SO. We have a tough 8 years to come and the best way to deal with it is to stop fighting yesterday's battles.

TheWhiteRabbit

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

Bit of an underpromotion IMO, but she might be able to make more of it

JosiasJessop

Strong support there for the referendum result by May.

SouthamObserver

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.

Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.

And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.

Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.

Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.

He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.

bigjohnowls

JosiasJessop said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

'Sovial care'? A blending of Soviet and social?

But yes, Corbyn won that IMO. There appears to be a trend I haven't noticed before: he starts off in his usual voice, then raises the anger towards the end.

He doesn't quite pull it off, but it's more effective than his previous efforts.

would agree Jezza like Ed Balls stilll not great at PMQs but improving

May still aint getting there the contrast with Dave is stark

SimonStClare

Afternoon all. - Autumn Statement kicks off at 12.30 ? TIA.

TCPoliticalBetting

JosiasJessop said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

'Sovial care'? A blending of Soviet and social?

But yes, Corbyn won that IMO. There appears to be a trend I haven't noticed before: he starts off in his usual voice, then raises the anger towards the end.

He doesn't quite pull it off, but it's more effective than his previous efforts.

Agreed, he is doing better. The appalling failure of the NHS to meet agreed productivity targets added to the failure of this Govt to tackle the bed blocking in the NHS. On bed blocking they have had enough time but Cameron/Osborne squandered the time and Hunt and his people singularly failed to get it at the top of the action pile across Govt.

david_herdson

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

And crucially, Betfair remained wrong for several hours after PB worked out which way it was going.

Even before the polls closed, I seem to remember that the general consensus was that the odds for Leave were nuts even if Remain was more likely than not to win.

JosiasJessop

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.

Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.

And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.

Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.

Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.

Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.

No, it isn't.

Not many on here have called Trump a nitwit or dumb. The attacks are on very different aspects of his character, which you appear to gloss over (perhaps because you agree with them?)

Casino_Royale

Of course, he played the English card in precisely the opposite way during the EU referendum.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Advice to live by, SO. We have a tough 8 years to come and the best way to deal with it is to stop fighting yesterday's battles.

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

TCPoliticalBetting

bigjohnowls said:

JosiasJessop said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jezza murdering May over NHS/Sovial Care

'Sovial care'? A blending of Soviet and social?

But yes, Corbyn won that IMO. There appears to be a trend I haven't noticed before: he starts off in his usual voice, then raises the anger towards the end.

He doesn't quite pull it off, but it's more effective than his previous efforts.

would agree Jezza like Ed Balls stilll not great at PMQs but improving

May still aint getting there the contrast with Dave is stark

She does need to go for an early GE otherwise her Govt is likely to fall apart before 2020.

On the subject of Osborne. His ratings when he was in office as a "Leader" were in the toilet. 2% regarded him as a Leader. His patronage has ended and he has a long line of Conservative MPs that are against him.

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

And I had a bet on him doing so

I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.

Scott_P

@BethRigby: The three #Brexiteers - Davis, Johnson, Fox - nowhere near Hammond for #PMQs & #AS. "No accident" texts one MP to me

Scott_P

SouthamObserver said:

I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.

Indeed. As noted earlier, once PBers "knew" the market was wrong, killings were made

PlatoSaid

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

Do you have a linky? Not seeing it yet in my timeline

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

Of course, he played the English card in precisely the opposite way during the EU referendum.

The fact that he was already talking about 'playing the ______ card' when only a lowly ppc was highly telling - that he was already a manipulative little turd who wasn't nearly as clever as he thought he was.

Artist

Bookmarking this thread for nine years time.

DecrepitJohnL

PlatoSaid said:

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

Do you have a linky? Not seeing it yet in my timeline

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38076114

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

JosiasJessop

I'm waiting to here if they;'re funding investigations in the Oxford to Cambridge Expressway and corresponding railway in the autumn statement. Not only because it's going to heavily affect my area, but because it'll indicate that the infrastructure commission has some heft (the NIC recommended significant initial funding for them).

Pulpstar

I'm not watching it but I backed Hammond to be the next CoTE because he is precisely the sort of dull accountant this country needs at the top job.

PlatoSaid

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Glad you reposted that - I honestly can't understand how smart people here can't see it. It smacks me in the face everytime he does it.

Every tweet is designed to distract/dead cat/create a trap/troll/cause an emotional response.

And yet 90% of Leftists and NeverTrumpers fall straight into outrage/call him stupid.

Their entire reaction is predicated on their evidence free comfort blanket that a billionaire property developer/14 series reality star [how many last that long?]/non-politico killed off 16 professional rivals and now POTUS Elect ...is a nitwit.

Yeah, right. It's all some weird thing that's entirely unconnected with his talent for connecting with people/business nous over 70yrs. And they think they're smarter sat in the chairs of their cubicles - good grief.

He's clearly smart. He is also a crook, a sexual predator, a friend to white supremacists and anti-semites, a mocker of the disabled and a liar. In your world, that is not a problem. You like him for it. But other people don't. You are just going to have to accept that and live with it. Not everyone snuggles up to race-baiters.

Carry on believing what suits you, Hillary lost. I could expend pixels listing her failings too.

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

I'm not watching it but I backed Hammond to be the next CoTE because he is precisely the sort of dull accountant this country needs at the top job.

You shouldn't confuse being dull for being competent.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

TheScreamingEagles

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Of course, he played the English card in precisely the opposite way during the EU referendum.

The fact that he was already talking about 'playing the ______ card' when only a lowly ppc was highly telling - that he was already a manipulative little turd who wasn't nearly as clever as he thought he was.

I know you've been in Moscow for the last twenty years and not quite up to with British politics, but at the time he wasn't just a lowly PPC, he was working for the Tory leader at the time.

Scott_P

@SkyNewsBreak: Thomas Mair has been found guilty of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox in her constituency surgery in Birstall near Leeds a week before EU vote

AndyJS

Scott_P said:

@SkyNewsBreak: Thomas Mair has been found guilty of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox in her constituency surgery in Birstall near Leeds a week before EU vote

Big surprise. The evidence was overwhelming.

JosiasJessop

Pulpstar said:

I'm not watching it but I backed Hammond to be the next CoTE because he is precisely the sort of dull accountant this country needs at the top job.

One of the best managers I've ever worked for was exceptionally dull. He wouldn't do any of the usual teambuilding b/s that many managers go in for. But he would listen without talking except to get clarifications, and make firm decisions. He - and in fact his entire family - were utterly grey and bland.

I'd work for him again like a shot.

TCPoliticalBetting

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not watching it but I backed Hammond to be the next CoTE because he is precisely the sort of dull accountant this country needs at the top job.

You shouldn't confuse being dull for being competent.

Agreed. At the FO Hammond was quite clearly captured by his officials. He is showing signs of the same at the Treasury. We will shortly find out. Osborne spent so little time on his department that the Treasury got used to slipping through some truly awful and inept budget measures, leading to several omnishambles budgets.

Casino_Royale

JosiasJessop said:

I'm waiting to here if they;'re funding investigations in the Oxford to Cambridge Expressway and corresponding railway in the autumn statement. Not only because it's going to heavily affect my area, but because it'll indicate that the infrastructure commission has some heft (the NIC recommended significant initial funding for them).

Crossrail 2 for me!!

DecrepitJohnL

Scott_P said:

@SkyNewsBreak: Thomas Mair has been found guilty of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox in her constituency surgery in Birstall near Leeds a week before EU vote

Not even the opinion pollsters will be surprised at that verdict.

SouthamObserver

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

And crucially, Betfair remained wrong for several hours after PB worked out which way it was going.

Even before the polls closed, I seem to remember that the general consensus was that the odds for Leave were nuts even if Remain was more likely than not to win.

The fixed odds were ridiculous for a two horse race which almost every single poll indicated was extremely tight. I got prices of 5-1 and 4-1 on Leave only two or three weeks before the referendum.

Scott_P

Tim Farron gets a question at PMWQs

"Is he still here?" shouts a wag

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

Sometimes we do change our minds, actually. Or, at the very least, respect another's perspective that then informs our own.

Slackbladder

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not watching it but I backed Hammond to be the next CoTE because he is precisely the sort of dull accountant this country needs at the top job.

One of the best managers I've ever worked for was exceptionally dull. He wouldn't do any of the usual teambuilding b/s that many managers go in for. But he would listen without talking except to get clarifications, and make firm decisions. He - and in fact his entire family - were utterly grey and bland.

I'd work for him again like a shot.

As an accountant myself I'm very interested in seeing what Hammond does. There's a lot of changes which are possible in our tax and revenue system to both simply, make fairer and raise more revenue.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

You'd be surprised, I know three or four people who changed their minds on Brexit because of discussions on here! I actually put those arguments to use in the campaign and on doorsteps in Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush and they were extremely effective, we found that people who were on the fence that had heard the PB Leaver arguments were more certain leavers once we recontacted them.

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.

Indeed. As noted earlier, once PBers "knew" the market was wrong, killings were made

As the chap who edited PB on the evening of GE 2015, Brexit, and the US Presidential election 2016, you'll notice my threads I called a Tory majority, a Leave victory, and Trump as POTUS well before Betfair and the mainstream media.

I still think a Tory majority at nearly 2/1 on Betfair after Nuneaton was a reflection of punters watching the likes of the BBC/ITV/Sky News and listening to the talking heads.

PlatoSaid

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.

Indeed. As noted earlier, once PBers "knew" the market was wrong, killings were made

As the chap who edited PB on the evening of GE 2015, Brexit, and the US Presidential election 2016, you'll not my threads you'll notice I called a Tory majority, a Leave victory, and Trump as POTUS well before Betfair and the mainstream media.

I still think a Tory majority at nearly 2/1 on Betfair after Nuneaton was a reflection of punters watching the likes of the BBC/ITV/Sky News and listening to the talking heads.

Yes, after Nuneaton came in I think all of PB piled into Con Majority.

[Deleted User]

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's a douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 campaign.

Trump gives me every impression of living entirely in box 3. He's a zen master of trolling and chain-yanking. I think his 'gaffes' and tweets are very carefully thought through. The bien-pensant crowd misunderstimate him at their peril (to quote another one they misunderestimated!). Trump's was a 100% box 3 campaign

Got it - so when Trump openly mocked a disabled person in front of thousands of people at a rally, what was he trying to achieve there? What emotion was he appealing to? And what is he seeking to achieve by placing white supremacists into his administration and policy advice teams?

Don't get me wrong - Trump is a scuzzbucket. He's just a much cleverer scuzzbucket than nearly everyone gives him credit for. All politicians are scuzzbuckets to some extent or other. Vote the buggers out! In my opinion Clinton's scuzziness was worse but different.

IanB2

Osborne is finished, period.

Mortimer

Why is PMQs getting so long?

SimonStClare

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@SkyNewsBreak: Thomas Mair has been found guilty of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox in her constituency surgery in Birstall near Leeds a week before EU vote

Big surprise. The evidence was overwhelming.

Outcome was never in doubt, but justice has been done and seen to be, which is important.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

Tim Farron gets a question at PMWQs

"Is he still here?" shouts a wag

He is becoming a joke figure

bigjohnowls

IanB2 said:

Osborne is finished, period.

Wheras judging by todays TM performance she is on one

SouthamObserver

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

[
Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.

Big_G_NorthWales

Hammond seems nervous

MP_SE

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Advice to live by, SO. We have a tough 8 years to come and the best way to deal with it is to stop fighting yesterday's battles.

I would cut SO some slack. I think most people would become increasingly hysterical if they found themselves on the losing side of pretty much every vote and leadership contest since 2010.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Advice to live by, SO. We have a tough 8 years to come and the best way to deal with it is to stop fighting yesterday's battles.

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

Other people can speak for themselves. Personally, I feel pretty detached from the politics of a foreign country, whereas I don't feel so detached from politics in my own country. Corbyn is a threat to me and mine in a way that a foreign politician isn't. Unquestionably, Trump has said some awful things, but that's not going to alter the result.

MaxPB

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

The problem isn't Trump who I don't think cares about race, sexuality or anything like that. It's the people who have since been picked forbbig jobs. Jeff Sessions is a spectacularly poor pick, there is compelling evidence that he is prejudiced against blacks. Bannon seems like a caricature who sings Onward, Christian Soldiers to his children as lullabies.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

You'd be surprised, I know three or four people who changed their minds on Brexit because of discussions on here! I actually put those arguments to use in the campaign and on doorsteps in Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush and they were extremely effective, we found that people who were on the fence that had heard the PB Leaver arguments were more certain leavers once we recontacted them.

Sure - that is different. PB is a superb resource for understanding your opponent's views and for developing arguments to counter them.

JosiasJessop

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

I'm waiting to here if they;'re funding investigations in the Oxford to Cambridge Expressway and corresponding railway in the autumn statement. Not only because it's going to heavily affect my area, but because it'll indicate that the infrastructure commission has some heft (the NIC recommended significant initial funding for them).

Crossrail 2 for me!!

Good luck with that! Though I'm slightly concerned that we might have too many large infrastructure projects going on at the same time for good, skilled workers to be available. Crossrail will have ended, but well have HS2 phase 1, HS2 phase 2, whatever HS3 is, and possibly even Crossrail 2, all ongoing at the same time.

Casino_Royale

Oh.. Osborne tribute!

TheScreamingEagles

Huzzah for Phil Hammond praising Osborne and dissing Boris.

Clever of Ozzy and Ken Clarke to be sat together today.

williamglenn

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

She could hardly be worse than Samantha Power.

MP_SE

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

[
Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.

If you knew your political history you would know that Reagan was also endorsed by the KKK. So the fact they endorsed Trump is not particularly significant.

rkrkrk

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

When something motivates you to speak up there are options for what you say:
1. Just say what you want to say, get it off your chest. Emote.
2. Think a bit about your audience, tailor your emoting a bit to them.
3. Think what actual outcomes or actions you wish to induce from your audience and tailor your words logically and precisely to optimise the chances that that is what you'll get. No emoting at all. But it may SEEM that way.

Lefties and Hillary C are always in box 1. You're a racist, Trump's a douchebag, nobody decent can vote Trump, etc, etc. It feels awesome to emote. It's also electorally utterly counterproductive. The Deplorables simply hear 'you hate me too'. Hers was a 100% box 1 camp

Got it - so when Trump openly mocked a disabled person in front of thousands of people at a rally, what was he trying to achieve there? What emotion was he appealing to? And what is he seeking to achieve by placing white supremacists into his administration and policy advice teams?

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

The idea that the word racist should be retired is daft... We should just accept now that the racist tactics of republicans to disenfranchise minorities etc. is all okay?

Trump got about as many votes as you would expect a poor republican candidate to get albeit with an efficient distribution. Clinton underperformed massively... The lesson I take from this disastrous defeat is that I massively underestimated how much baggage she was carrying... And also how badly being establishment would play even though people seem to like Obama.

Mortimer

GREAT Bojo jibe there!

Casino_Royale

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

I'm waiting to here if they;'re funding investigations in the Oxford to Cambridge Expressway and corresponding railway in the autumn statement. Not only because it's going to heavily affect my area, but because it'll indicate that the infrastructure commission has some heft (the NIC recommended significant initial funding for them).

Crossrail 2 for me!!

Good luck with that! Though I'm slightly concerned that we might have too many large infrastructure projects going on at the same time for good, skilled workers to be available. Crossrail will have ended, but well have HS2 phase 1, HS2 phase 2, whatever HS3 is, and possibly even Crossrail 2, all ongoing at the same time.

Yeah, there aren't enough of us. Which is perhaps why we should talk ;-)

SimonStClare

Mortimer said:

Why is PMQs getting so long?

Speaker Bercow is either too inept to control PMQs, or likes his weekly limelight too much?

MaxPB

MP_SE said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

FPT in response to people saying the 'herd' (thought that word had gone) on PB are wrong.

Also worth pointing out that Betfair, the largest political betting markets in history were "wrong", as was the the popular vote in the US.

To claim PB was a wrong bubble is, in a word, wrong

The white supwemacist waycist won. Get over it.

Advice to live by, SO. We have a tough 8 years to come and the best way to deal with it is to stop fighting yesterday's battles.

I would cut SO some slack. I think most people would become increasingly hysterical if they found themselves on the losing side of pretty much every vote and leadership contest since 2010.

Correctly predicted, of course!

MP_SE

PlatoSaid said:

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

Do you have a linky? Not seeing it yet in my timeline

UN envoy not ambassador.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38076114

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

I think most of us did, but collectively we probably made more on Brexit.

Indeed. As noted earlier, once PBers "knew" the market was wrong, killings were made

As the chap who edited PB on the evening of GE 2015, Brexit, and the US Presidential election 2016, you'll notice my threads I called a Tory majority, a Leave victory, and Trump as POTUS well before Betfair and the mainstream media.

I still think a Tory majority at nearly 2/1 on Betfair after Nuneaton was a reflection of punters watching the likes of the BBC/ITV/Sky News and listening to the talking heads.

There's nowhere else to be but pb.com on an election night.

PlatoSaid

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

You'd be surprised, I know three or four people who changed their minds on Brexit because of discussions on here! I actually put those arguments to use in the campaign and on doorsteps in Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush and they were extremely effective, we found that people who were on the fence that had heard the PB Leaver arguments were more certain leavers once we recontacted them.

I changed my view of gay marriage from chary to okay with it.

A solidly made argument can change opinions - mud slinging and playground name-calling just entrenches positions.

JosiasJessop

Mortimer said:

Why is PMQs getting so long?

I'm not a fan of Bercow, but he believes in getting through the list of questions regardless of the time taken. I think that's a good thing for democracy.

TheScreamingEagles

MP_SE said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

[
Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.

If you knew your political history you would know that Regan was also endorsed by the KKK. So the fact they endorsed Trump is not particularly significant.

If only you KNEW your political history, look at how Reagan repudiated that support from the KKK and contrast it with Trump's silence.

williamglenn

MP_SE said:

PlatoSaid said:

MP_SE said:

Nikki Haley has been named US ambassador to the UN. A decent pick.

Do you have a linky? Not seeing it yet in my timeline

UN envoy not ambassador.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38076114

Link says ambassador.

Philip_Thompson

Growth in 2016 higher than forecast in March. How often has that been said at the Autumn Statement?

SouthamObserver

MP_SE said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

[
Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.

If you knew your political history you would know that Regan was also endorsed by the KKK. So the fact they endorsed Trump is not particularly significant.

I am not sure that Reagan's victories led to the celebrations among white supremacists and anti-semites that we have seen since 8th November. But if they did, the difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan did not appoint white supremacists into key positions in his policy team or his administration. Trump has. I also don't remember Reagan openly mocking the disabled in front of thousands of people at rallies, being exposed as a serial sexual predator or of setting up "universities" designed to fleece ordinary Americans of thousands of dollars.

PlatoSaid

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

[
Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

Hillary was a very poor candidate. People vote for a variety of reasons. But that does not stop Trump being a racebaiter, I'm afraid. There is a reason why he was endorsed by the KKK.

That final sentence has stuck you on my Stupid Useful Idiot List.

Alistair

PlatoSaid said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

You'd be surprised, I know three or four people who changed their minds on Brexit because of discussions on here! I actually put those arguments to use in the campaign and on doorsteps in Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush and they were extremely effective, we found that people who were on the fence that had heard the PB Leaver arguments were more certain leavers once we recontacted them.

I changed my view of gay marriage from chary to okay with it.

A solidly made argument can change opinions - mud slinging and playground name-calling just entrenches positions.

Yet you were happy to repost easily disprovable, libelous lies about Clinton you read on Twitter.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I will call out race-baiters where I find them. That is not yesterday's battle. That is an ongoing one. The fact that you are one of the few righties on here who has forcefully criticised Trump for his embrace of white supremacists and anti-Semites is genuinely shocking to me. I made the mistake of believing that when Corbyn was quite correctly being given stick for his fondness for anti-Semites it was being done from a position of principle not partisanship. You live and learn, I guess.

The only way to win in the future is to change minds and listen to those who are suffering. Trump is not the cause, he is a symptom. That he has chosen to align himself with unsavoury and some downright racists is beyond lamentable, but as I said no use in fighting yesterday's battles. Especially using the same tactics that lost. Using language like deplorables, racist and other liberal go to phrases has, IMO, lead to Trump as much as economic decline. The same is true here for all of those Northern industrial towns that backed Brexit.

Fighting tomorrow's battles against the same opponents will require new tactics and much more humility than Clinton's camp showed.

I completely agree. But this is PB and minds are not going to be changed. Truths, though, can and should be spoken.

Given you think Trump is a race-baiter [despite being rather feted by Blacks for decades before running for POTUS] - how do you explain that significantly more Muslims, Latinos and Blacks voted for him than any other GOP candidate? Oh and apparently gays too?

Were they too stupid - or more informed than you? I see your views as rather peculiar and flying in the face of US residents that had a vote.

The problem isn't Trump who I don't think cares about race, sexuality or anything like that. It's the people who have since been picked forbbig jobs. Jeff Sessions is a spectacularly poor pick, there is compelling evidence that he is prejudiced against blacks. Bannon seems like a caricature who sings Onward, Christian Soldiers to his children as lullabies.

I like Onward, Christian Soldiers.