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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Afer his perfrmance yesterday Hammond moves up the betting as

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Afer his perfrmance yesterday Hammond moves up the betting as next CON leader/PM

The new Chancellor gets a good press this morning following his first set piece appearance since getting the job in July. He’s someone who has been up there within the party a long time but has never sought to hog the limelight. After GE2010 he should have become number 2 to Osborne at the Treasury but the demands of the coalition meant that had to go to a Lib Dem. Since then he’s held senior cabinet posts, most recently Foreign Secretary, that don’t get you much media exposure.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2016
    First!
    A triumph as successful as Mr Dancer's book will inevitably be.
    My copy has been bought from Amazon already.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    He won't survive the recession. Bad timing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Third like Labour
  • The Brexit loonies don't trust him. In the current febrile conditions, that's fatal to his chances.

    The conditions may change, in which case he is well-placed to take the crown, but it's a longer than 14/1 shot that they will.
  • By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.
  • Note to OGH - delete the last two paras, they are repeats.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.

    Five comments into this new thread and you haven't randomly called anyone a white supremacist anti-semite yet.

    Are you feeling okay?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I'd want more than 14/1, especially since he doesn't seem to want the top job.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Fpt

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 11m11 minutes ago
    Hammond: "UK can sustain a relatively high level of debt". That is direct opposite of what Ministers have been saying for past decade.

    You have to be f****** kidding me. Weren't we told that the Bank of England had phoned Clegg personally in May 2010 and told him to do a deal and support austerity otherwise we were Greece thanks to our massive debt?

    Quite. It shows the power of message over facts that only last year the Conservatives genuinely convinced most people that debt reduction was absolutely crucial and any party not committed to it at all costs would ruin Britain. Now they're saying the opposite, most people will just say "oh good, thatt's a relief". The problem may be that demands for extra spending on all manner of things will start to reappear.

    Congratulations, Morris! - very satisfying! Good luck iwth the next volumes too.
    I think the voters want spending on 'people like me' and less on 'people like them'.

    And the Conservatives convinced enough of the C1C2s and pensioners of middle England (and Wales) that they were their 'people like me'.

    Labour's problem is that they have become viewed as the party of 'single mothers and immigrants' who are 'people like them' in the eyes of the C1C2s and pensioners of middle England (and Wales).

    Alex Salmond's boast that he would write Labour's Budget was also a factor.
    McD this morning in a pickle. Standing up for teachers and train drivers on £40k upwards, over those poorest in society.

    Now why on earth would that be, I wonder..
  • GeoffM said:

    By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.

    Five comments into this new thread and you haven't randomly called anyone a white supremacist anti-semite yet.

    Are you feeling okay?

    I'm fine. Don't worry, I'll be calling out white supremacists, their apologists and right wing antiSemitism hypocrites again. Any chance of you doing the same?

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.

    Five comments into this new thread and you haven't randomly called anyone a white supremacist anti-semite yet.

    Are you feeling okay?

    I'm fine. Don't worry, I'll be calling out white supremacists, their apologists and right wing antiSemitism hypocrites again. Any chance of you doing the same?

    Sure; I will if I spot any.
  • Martin Schulz not seeking a third term and going to stand for the German Parliament. Juncker must be on his way as well with a bit of luck
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.

    Five comments into this new thread and you haven't randomly called anyone a white supremacist anti-semite yet.

    Are you feeling okay?

    I'm fine. Don't worry, I'll be calling out white supremacists, their apologists and right wing antiSemitism hypocrites again. Any chance of you doing the same?

    Sure; I will if I spot any.
    I fear you might be blind to them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GeoffM said:

    First!
    A triumph as successful as Mr Dancer's book will inevitably be.
    My copy has been bought from Amazon already.

    Is their book all green?
  • Hammond also (as well as abandoning Osborne's politically mischievous and economically naive deficit non-targets) dropped the welfare cap that had been imposed on IDS by Osborne. Older readers may remember the opprobrium heaped on IDS by the Chancellor's astroturfers when he left the Cabinet over Osborne's meddling (or as some had it, to lead the Leave campaign).

    Hammond seems to agree with IDS, at least on this.
  • Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?
  • Hammond is awesome, that gag at the expense of Boris was the stuff of legends.

    He's getting briefed against by Mrs May and the hard Brexiteers which is a good indicator of him doing his job well but I fear the latter might be able to stop him becoming PM/Leader.

    Delighted that more and more commentators are agreeing with me that the mandateless Mrs May is a bit shite.
  • Hammond did very well indeed yesterday. But betting on his Secession is a bet on at least three things. #1 Brexit going wrong. #2 Brexit going so wrong the Tories are forced to tack towards Soft Brexit not a Scorched Earth Brexit. #3 Overcoming the Nixon/China thing. A retreat to Softest Brexit would probably necessitate a Leaver leader.

    So while I'm personally grateful to him for adding gravitas and some statespersonship to this shower I'd want more than 14/1 to back him now the Tories Eurolycenthropy is fully unleashed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.
  • Hammond is awesome, that gag at the expense of Boris was the stuff of legends.

    He's getting briefed against by Mrs May and the hard Brexiteers which is a good indicator of him doing his job well but I fear the latter might be able to stop him becoming PM/Leader.

    Delighted that more and more commentators are agreeing with me that the mandateless Mrs May is a bit shite.

    Other than the stupid move of taxing "benefits" like gym memberships. Such things are good for the company, the individual and the country.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Alistair said:

    GeoffM said:

    First!
    A triumph as successful as Mr Dancer's book will inevitably be.
    My copy has been bought from Amazon already.

    Is their book all green?
    A 2016 Election, starring Donald Trump - main villain, Jill Stein.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"?

    The noncefinder General, Tom Watson.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    Morning all.

    No surprise Hammond’s betting odds are tightening, doesn’t every chancellor after a Budget/Autumn Statement(RIP) – While we’re on the subject, who in the Tory party is TMay’s wingman, ready to take charge should she encounter the proverbial bus?
  • GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    By far the most impressive member of the cabinet. One of very few who rises above the mediocre. As the Tories move right, though, it's hard to see him becoming leader as there seem to be enough loon-based Tory MPs to force a contested election should May go, as she could well do.

    Five comments into this new thread and you haven't randomly called anyone a white supremacist anti-semite yet.

    Are you feeling okay?

    I'm fine. Don't worry, I'll be calling out white supremacists, their apologists and right wing antiSemitism hypocrites again. Any chance of you doing the same?

    Sure; I will if I spot any.

    :-D

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2016
    Hammond is probably the first member of the current cabinet I'd have in government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Hammond is awesome, that gag at the expense of Boris was the stuff of legends.

    He's getting briefed against by Mrs May and the hard Brexiteers which is a good indicator of him doing his job well but I fear the latter might be able to stop him becoming PM/Leader.

    Delighted that more and more commentators are agreeing with me that the mandateless Mrs May is a bit shite.

    Plus for PH there is a pale, male, stale thing going on.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hammond is probably the first member of the current cabinet I'd have in government.

    It certainly makes a change to have a CoE who is actually qualified to do the job.
  • SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
  • How long before " the forces of Hell " are unleashed against Hammond ?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    edited November 2016

    Morning all.

    No surprise Hammond’s betting odds are tightening, doesn’t every chancellor after a Budget/Autumn Statement(RIP) – While we’re on the subject, who in the Tory party is TMay’s wingman, ready to take charge should she encounter the proverbial bus?

    In addition to being CoE Hammond is "First Secretary of State" and would deputise for TM at PMQs if required. The implication is he is the heir.

  • On topic, Hammond comes over as sensible and capable, either of which would disqualify him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.

    I guess it's probably the kind of things that Mr. Hands of Seattle died from.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    The loneliness of the long-distance tab-runner.....
  • On-topic: perhaps. However, I do wonder if Hammond will be seen as a traitor-weasel in such circumstances and may end up supporting a middle-ground candidate instead. Perhaps a chap called Osborne...

    Off-topic: shan't post this every new thread but it's release day, so I hope it's not a cause of disapproval to mention Kingdom Asunder, my new book, is out [Amazon UK buyers could use this link to get via Macmillan - http://shop.macmillan.org.uk/amazon.html].

    Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
    Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246

    As promised, my concise guide for why persons of all political persuasions should purchase is here:
    Are you a modern, inclusive, diversity-approving and LGBTQIA-sensitive person?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    As well as boasting multiple female protagonists and an in-depth portrayal of the inherent masculine violence endemic in patriarchy, there are numerous sensitive depictions of characters of non-binary gender, disability, lesbianism and transvestitism.


    Are you an old-fashioned, no-nonsense Conservative?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Delight in the glorious bloodshed as the conflicting sides are matched in a battle of wits and steel. Welcome to a world where the health & safety executive would have a broadsword shoved up its bunghole and the closest thing to an all-woman shortlist is a lesbian’s carnal menu.


    Are you a Liberal Democrat?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Enjoy the escapism of 2016’s most fantastic story, replete with characters from multiple ethnicities all working together on a common cause*. There’s a whole race of vegetarians, coupled with a metropolitan cocktail of English, French, German and Welsh references.

    *The common cause being to kill everyone on the other side.


    Are you a Labour supporter?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Hark back to the terrible days of class hierarchy and subservience of the proletariat and marvel at how terrible things were before socialism. See how the arrogance and violence of the wealthy few causes untold suffering to the working man, and be glad you live in more enlightened times.


    Are you none of the above?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    The grim reality of warfare and power politics is effortlessly portrayed through morally grey characters, with an emphasis on gritty realism and the fractious relationships that are hallmarks of real life. Treachery, brutality and a ruthless streak a mile wide make this the most compelling novel of the year.

    /endpromo
  • On-topic 2: just seen that Corbyn is favourite. Surely that's... optimistic?

    I think David Miliband's odds are rather shorter than reality warrants.

    Of those named in the table, only Hammond and Osborne seem worthy of consideration to me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Plenty of sheep?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?

    Little known in the UK maybe, but bigger in the USA. Perhaps others have a better perspective on how good these numbers really are in the bigger picture of web traffic ... but "little known"" seems harsh.

    www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/07/breitbart-news-hits-record-240-million-pageviews-37-million-uniques-in-october/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Plenty of single sheep, though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    On-topic: perhaps. However, I do wonder if Hammond will be seen as a traitor-weasel in such circumstances and may end up supporting a middle-ground candidate instead. Perhaps a chap called Osborne...

    Off-topic: shan't post this every new thread but it's release day, so I hope it's not a cause of disapproval to mention Kingdom Asunder, my new book, is out [Amazon UK buyers could use this link to get via Macmillan - http://shop.macmillan.org.uk/amazon.html].

    Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
    Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246

    As promised, my concise guide for why persons of all political persuasions should purchase is here:
    Are you a modern, inclusive, diversity-approving and LGBTQIA-sensitive person?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    As well as boasting multiple female protagonists and an in-depth portrayal of the inherent masculine violence endemic in patriarchy, there are numerous sensitive depictions of characters of non-binary gender, disability, lesbianism and transvestitism.


    Are you an old-fashioned, no-nonsense Conservative?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Delight in the glorious bloodshed as the conflicting sides are matched in a battle of wits and steel. Welcome to a world where the health & safety executive would have a broadsword shoved up its bunghole and the closest thing to an all-woman shortlist is a lesbian’s carnal menu.


    Are you a Liberal Democrat?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Enjoy the escapism of 2016’s most fantastic story, replete with characters from multiple ethnicities all working together on a common cause*. There’s a whole race of vegetarians, coupled with a metropolitan cocktail of English, French, German and Welsh references.

    *The common cause being to kill everyone on the other side.


    Are you a Labour supporter?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    Hark back to the terrible days of class hierarchy and subservience of the proletariat and marvel at how terrible things were before socialism. See how the arrogance and violence of the wealthy few causes untold suffering to the working man, and be glad you live in more enlightened times.


    Are you none of the above?

    Kingdom Asunder is the novel for you.

    The grim reality of warfare and power politics is effortlessly portrayed through morally grey characters, with an emphasis on gritty realism and the fractious relationships that are hallmarks of real life. Treachery, brutality and a ruthless streak a mile wide make this the most compelling novel of the year.

    /endpromo

    Just bought it, Morris, how could anyone resist such an analysis.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.

    I guess it's probably the kind of things that Mr. Hands of Seattle died from.
    They've included SPANKING in their banned list, FFS.

    Spanking. It's about as vanilla as French kissing. Ludicrous
    Maybe French kissing is banned.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Not a single woman or not a single woman?

    Plenty of both at 5HS last night. You should stay closer to home.
  • After Brexit @SeanT will sit in judgement on what constitutes " non conventional sex " for the purposes of the Tories new Porn restrictions. We should think of a job title for him. Preferably ending in General.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    I am a little confused about this ban on naughty movie stuff...I thought this was all announced was a few years ago?
  • Mr. Topping, huzzah! I knew you were a prudent fellow.

    Mr. F, it's incredibly backward of the Government. Puritanical cretins.
  • SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Plenty of single sheep, though.
    Not sure there's much sheep shagging any more. Australian men seem to have reverted to their natural convict preference of drunken male sodomy, albeit with exquisite wines and fine cheeses rather than grog and ships biscuit.
    When in Rome..
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    There's so many ways to data mine. This is rather fun.

    Claire Lehmann
    This is some pretty sophisticated data-mining. How Trump's son-in-law got him elected via Moneyball tactics https://t.co/Cy4L5NlWRa https://t.co/YCmYgIXdmu
  • The Spanish Parliament has approved a Podemos proposal to up the minimum wage from Euros 600 a month to Euros 800. PP learning all about being a minority government. Ciudadanos abstained.
  • perdix said:

    Morning all.

    No surprise Hammond’s betting odds are tightening, doesn’t every chancellor after a Budget/Autumn Statement(RIP) – While we’re on the subject, who in the Tory party is TMay’s wingman, ready to take charge should she encounter the proverbial bus?

    In addition to being CoE Hammond is "First Secretary of State" and would deputise for TM at PMQs if required. The implication is he is the heir.
    Cheers Mr perdix, I thought as much. Hammond appears dull but capable and far saner than most on the front bench.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    GeoffM said:

    Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?

    Little known in the UK maybe, but bigger in the USA. Perhaps others have a better perspective on how good these numbers really are in the bigger picture of web traffic ... but "little known"" seems harsh.

    www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/07/breitbart-news-hits-record-240-million-pageviews-37-million-uniques-in-october/
    My comment was said rather tongue in cheek. However, I do wonder though how much all this focus on it has boosted it's views.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.

    I guess it's probably the kind of things that Mr. Hands of Seattle died from.
    They've included SPANKING in their banned list, FFS.

    Spanking. It's about as vanilla as French kissing. Ludicrous
    Maybe French kissing is banned.
    If the government had their way the only smut that would be allowed is couples holding hands.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning all :)

    Not sure I quite get the adulation for Hammond on here. The fact is a small amount of infrastructure spend fails to obscure a growing deficit and debt - it's not as mad as some of Trump's economic plans but it's curious to see the return of Keynes as an economic influence and somehow we can infrastructure spend our way to the future and forget the deficit and the debt which our children and grandchildren will still have to pay off.

    The obvious point is that it is the future and much of what Hammond proposes won't bear serious economic fruit (apart from keeping a lot of people employed on menial tasks on the construction projects) for the next 20 years.

    On topic, the problem is how does May fall ? Retirement midway through the next Parliament seems one option but would Hammond be the beneficiary of a leadership election in seven or eight years time ? May then either resigns for some unknown health reason (perhaps) or is defenestrated much as Thatcher and (arguably) Cameron were.

    The Conservative Party is utterly ruthless. Once a leader becomes or is seen to have become an electoral liability, their days are numbered. May is nowhere near that now so there would have to be a prodigious decline in her ratings over the next 24-36 months to make her so much of a liability that a) Corbyn becomes a potential PM or b) IF Corbyn is replaced by Dan Jarvis, she starts looking like yesterday's news but then wouldn't Hammond as well ?

    The only other scenario is the outbreak of civil war in the Conservative Party over the terms of the Brexit Treaty - unlikely but perhaps not inconceivable. Hammond becomes "Mr Soft" and someone becomes Mr (I won't go any further with this because too many on here enjoy their innuendo too much).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,773
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Just expand your definition of "single". Or, for that matter, "woman".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,773
    GeoffM said:

    Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?

    Little known in the UK maybe, but bigger in the USA. Perhaps others have a better perspective on how good these numbers really are in the bigger picture of web traffic ... but "little known"" seems harsh.

    www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/07/breitbart-news-hits-record-240-million-pageviews-37-million-uniques-in-october/
    It is big. It's a very successful business.

    That being said, pb reaches half a million page views a day during elections, so Breitbart is only about 12x larger than us*.

    * Using election night, which is not very representative, I admit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?

    Little known in the UK maybe, but bigger in the USA. Perhaps others have a better perspective on how good these numbers really are in the bigger picture of web traffic ... but "little known"" seems harsh.

    www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/07/breitbart-news-hits-record-240-million-pageviews-37-million-uniques-in-october/
    Breitbart is massive in the USA. And successful.
    Unlike the Guardian and NYT ;-)
  • Mr. SE, careful. Phalangial fondling may soon be deemed too racy by the Department For Forgetting We're Not Victorians.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Breitbart news site blocked by ad exchange
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38076579

    I wonder if all this coverage of a little known website is having the Streisand effect?

    Little known in the UK maybe, but bigger in the USA. Perhaps others have a better perspective on how good these numbers really are in the bigger picture of web traffic ... but "little known"" seems harsh.

    www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/11/07/breitbart-news-hits-record-240-million-pageviews-37-million-uniques-in-october/
    It is big. It's a very successful business.

    That being said, pb reaches half a million page views a day during elections, so Breitbart is only about 12x larger than us*.

    * Using election night, which is not very representative, I admit.
    A certain MSM website that I am familiar with reached over 100M uniques in the US election night event.

    Brietbart is big ish. But not compared to some.
  • I see the " four finger rule " will now app!y to web videos under this Bill. The BBFC is going to have the power to assess every p*rn clip on the internet and issue enforcement notices to websites if they have clips that breach the conditions. This will end in tears of laughter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2016

    On-topic 2: just seen that Corbyn is favourite. Surely that's... optimistic?

    I think David Miliband's odds are rather shorter than reality warrants.

    Of those named in the table, only Hammond and Osborne seem worthy of consideration to me.

    Corbyn is unlikely to be moved as Labour leader and is in an effective two horse race with May in most likely 2020. He doesn't need to win the most seats to become the Prime Minister, Labour MPs will come round like the GOP has to Trump if he wins enough seats to become PM. That can't be any longer than perhaps 8-1.

    Meanwhile the Tory field has more potential winners than the Grand National. Noone should be perhaps shorter than 12s or so.

    Hence Corbyn ought to be the favourite to be next PM.

    To expand (Via Electoral calculus)

    Corbyn to become PM:

    Labour majority
    5%
    Nat choice of Con/Lab
    3%
    Lab/Nat coalition
    1%
    Lab choice of Lib/Nat
    1%

    Corbyn to remain Labour leader till next GE I'd put at 1.3, the combined odds of the above are 10.0

    Hence actually he should be 13.0. Still noone in the Tories should really be any shorter.
  • I see the " four finger rule " will now app!y to web videos under this Bill. The BBFC is going to have the power to assess every p*rn clip on the internet and issue enforcement notices to websites if they have clips that breach the conditions. This will end in tears of laughter.

    I wonder how the job adverts for all the new required roles will read?
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Not sure I quite get the adulation for Hammond on here. The fact is a small amount of infrastructure spend fails to obscure a growing deficit and debt - it's not as mad as some of Trump's economic plans but it's curious to see the return of Keynes as an economic influence and somehow we can infrastructure spend our way to the future and forget the deficit and the debt which our children and grandchildren will still have to pay off.

    The obvious point is that it is the future and much of what Hammond proposes won't bear serious economic fruit (apart from keeping a lot of people employed on menial tasks on the construction projects) for the next 20 years.

    On topic, the problem is how does May fall ? Retirement midway through the next Parliament seems one option but would Hammond be the beneficiary of a leadership election in seven or eight years time ? May then either resigns for some unknown health reason (perhaps) or is defenestrated much as Thatcher and (arguably) Cameron were.

    The Conservative Party is utterly ruthless. Once a leader becomes or is seen to have become an electoral liability, their days are numbered. May is nowhere near that now so there would have to be a prodigious decline in her ratings over the next 24-36 months to make her so much of a liability that a) Corbyn becomes a potential PM or b) IF Corbyn is replaced by Dan Jarvis, she starts looking like yesterday's news but then wouldn't Hammond as well ?

    The only other scenario is the outbreak of civil war in the Conservative Party over the terms of the Brexit Treaty - unlikely but perhaps not inconceivable. Hammond becomes "Mr Soft" and someone becomes Mr (I won't go any further with this because too many on here enjoy their innuendo too much).

    Surely a higher deficit and debt is a price worth paying to get rid of those Romanians sleeping under a bridge near you ? I recall how much they bothered you before you voted Leave. I expected you to think it a bargain ? What price freedom ?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"?

    The noncefinder General, Tom Watson.
    you never hear even a squawk from him these days..

  • I see the " four finger rule " will now app!y to web videos under this Bill. The BBFC is going to have the power to assess every p*rn clip on the internet and issue enforcement notices to websites if they have clips that breach the conditions. This will end in tears of laughter.

    I wonder how the job adverts for all the new required roles will read?
    At least the extra public sector roles needed will boost the guardians ad revenue.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2016

    Mr. SE, careful. Phalangial fondling may soon be deemed too racy by the Department For Forgetting We're Not Victorians.

    Lol.

    Congratulations on the book launch.
  • John McDonnell: Jo Cox’s murder shows Britain needs a more “civilised” politics

    http://labourlist.org/2016/11/mcdonnell-jo-coxs-murder-shows-britain-needs-a-more-civilised-politics/

    Then someone tweets this, which explains why the Tories think they're home and hosed at the next general election

    https://twitter.com/nomentumN6/status/801713481623932928
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    The Origin of Species was first published today.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Hammond reminds me of my dad.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    The Origin of Species was first published today.
    Really? I thought it was older.
  • This is all part of Trump's plan to get Mexico to pay for the wall.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The comments on this article are truly delicious. So much triggering.

    "The shambassador's reception: tycoons are spoiling Nigel Farage"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/23/the-shambassadors-reception-tycoons-are-spoiling-nigel-farage
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.

    Hopefully this nonsense will be amended out of the bill, especially if enough people write to their MP (hint hint). Since the priority is to restrict young children's access to porn, getting sidetracked like this is foolish.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Not a single woman or not a single woman?

    Plenty of both at 5HS last night. You should stay closer to home.
    Maybe, but on the other hand I did go through a "glow worm" tunnel today. It's an old railway tunnel built by the Brits to access shale oil in the Blue Mountains in the 19th century.

    The industry failed and now its disused and has been colonised by thousands of glowworms. It's incredible. You hike into the hills and you're given a torch and you walk down this scary dark tunnel and then inn absolute darkness you turn the torch off... revealing thousands of gently luminescent glowworms all over the tunnel walls. It's like being a PART of heaven. A star in a constellation.

    I almost blubbed.
    Listen, you either want to broaden your mind, experience the wondrous properties of nature in her unknowable beauty and marvel at earth's magnificence.

    Or you want a shag.

    Rarely the twain meet.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    The obvious reaction to those figures is that Ukip aren't reporting all their donations.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited November 2016
    Mr. Pulpstar, perhaps. We'll see. It's a depressing thought.

    Mr. Submarine, just how far is this Censorious, Rubbish, And Puritanical (CRAP) Bill down the legislative line?

    Mr. SE, cheers.

    Mr. Urquhart, "Wanted: man with the heart of Sir Galahad to assess wanton depravity and righteously condemn it."

    Edited extra bit: to avoid confusion, I should clarify that I have not written The Origin of Species. Kingdom Asunder has a much better plot.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I bet the BNP figure is mostly made up of a donation from someone's will. They have been rumbled "encouraging" elderly BNPers to include them in their will. A scummy party using scummy fundraising methods.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The 10.0 probability of Labour gaining "enough seats" to effectively get power is predicated upon a midpoint for Labour of 174 seats by the way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016

    John McDonnell: Jo Cox’s murder shows Britain needs a more “civilised” politics

    http://labourlist.org/2016/11/mcdonnell-jo-coxs-murder-shows-britain-needs-a-more-civilised-politics/

    Then someone tweets this, which explains why the Tories think they're home and hosed at the next general election

    https://twitter.com/nomentumN6/status/801713481623932928

    One of many videos / quotes they could have chosen from....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    Surely a higher deficit and debt is a price worth paying to get rid of those Romanians sleeping under a bridge near you ? I recall how much they bothered you before you voted Leave. I expected you to think it a bargain ? What price freedom ?

    Yes, they did bother me and they bothered me because they represented the truth of the Single Market and the truth of what the EU had become. Instead of trying to extend prosperity to all the peoples and all the regions of Europe, the Single Market had simply drawn wealth (both capital and labour) to the richest areas - London, the Rhineland and other parts of (mainly) northern Europe leaving vast areas of southern and eastern Europe impoverished.

    People will always go where the money is so the natural consequence of the "Four Freedoms" was to draw more wealth and people to the already richest areas and leave others depopulated and declining.

    There is no freedom if all that freedom means is the ability based on necessity to leave your home and all you know to live and work in a foreign country because there's nothing for you if you stay.


  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Dadge said:

    On the new web obscenity laws: as ever with any proposed laws, you need to look first at the problem it is supposed to solve, and then ask whether it solves it.

    Extending the ban on "non-conventional sex acts" from DVDs onto the web makes sense from a consistency viewpoint, but what's the point in the ban? Who decides what is "non-conventional sex acts"? What harm is the ban supposed to prevent? What harm might it cause?

    I'm not particularly into any of these "non-conventional sex acts", but am all to aware that some will want to take the ban further (fnarr, fnarr). On so should all of us on this site: gambling might be next.

    Hopefully this nonsense will be amended out of the bill, especially if enough people write to their MP (hint hint). Since the priority is to restrict young children's access to porn, getting sidetracked like this is foolish.
    Yeah, because writing a letter to your MPs office saying that you're keen to watch spanking videos is a really good idea and isn't going to get you on a list anywhere.

    If you're lucky they'll just lose the letter. If you write to a LibDem MP (okay, agreed, statistically unlikely now) then you're in danger of not only getting a reply but also an invitation round for a drink.

    Mark Oaten would be using this as a recruitment drive and screening exercise.
  • And the " four finger rule " will be extended to the internet by the Digital Economy Bill. Hilarious.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    Dadge said:

    Hammond reminds me of my dad.

    Funny that.......you've just struck a sentimental chord with me...........Hammond reminds me of my dad too....... And that perhaps is the most positive thing I have ever said about a politician........
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    twitter.com/willmartin19/status/801725085904175104

    The Google offers us an article about it being a publicity stunt from dating company "Once"

    https://getonce.com/

    http://globaldatinginsights.com/2016/11/23/once-launches-its-doitlikenigel-double-decker-bus-campaign-in-london/

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Only on PB do you get 'four fingers' and 'four freedoms' on the same thread!

    I assume the former is something to do with Kitkats?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Only on PB do you get 'four fingers' and 'four freedoms' on the same thread!

    I assume the former is something to do with Kitkats?

    Brexit means giving the EU the middle freedom.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm eating a brilliant dinner in the best hotel in Australia. I am alone. Please someone talk to me.

    My job is weird.

    Isn't that what tinder is for?
    I'm in a remote part of the Blue Mountaina. Wolgan Valley. Charles Darwin came here during the Beagle Voyage and was stunned by its beauty.

    But I doubt there's a single woman for 30 miles.
    Not a single woman or not a single woman?

    Plenty of both at 5HS last night. You should stay closer to home.
    Maybe, but on the other hand I did go through a "glow worm" tunnel today. It's an old railway tunnel built by the Brits to access shale oil in the Blue Mountains in the 19th century.

    The industry failed and now its disused and has been colonised by thousands of glowworms. It's incredible. You hike into the hills and you're given a torch and you walk down this scary dark tunnel and then inn absolute darkness you turn the torch off... revealing thousands of gently luminescent glowworms all over the tunnel walls. It's like being a PART of heaven. A star in a constellation.

    I almost blubbed.
    Sounds like you're still 30, stoned and lying down in a gutter in a South American village. All of the last 15 or so years have been a stoner's dream. ;)

    Seriously though, it sounds amazing.
  • tyson said:

    Dadge said:

    Hammond reminds me of my dad.

    Funny that.......you've just struck a sentimental chord with me...........Hammond reminds me of my dad too....... And that perhaps is the most positive thing I have ever said about a politician........
    Before the PB hagiography hits the stratosphere, Hammond is ridiculously complacent on the state of NHS and social care finance.
  • tyson said:

    Dadge said:

    Hammond reminds me of my dad.

    Funny that.......you've just struck a sentimental chord with me...........Hammond reminds me of my dad too....... And that perhaps is the most positive thing I have ever said about a politician........
    Before the PB hagiography hits the stratosphere, Hammond is ridiculously complacent on the state of NHS and social care finance.
    I reckon it's the boy who cried wolf syndrome.

    Every winter there's stories and warnings that the NHS is about to keel over because of under funding, whilst the NHS is the second largest spending department, and one of the few departments to have its spending been ringfenced
  • MP_SE said:

    I bet the BNP figure is mostly made up of a donation from someone's will. They have been rumbled "encouraging" elderly BNPers to include them in their will. A scummy party using scummy fundraising methods.
    Still on brighter note:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-38083891
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2016
    Make America Wait Again news: Stein has filed in all three states
    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58366a41e4b000af95eddc30?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The CSU has set a limit of 200k asylum seekers per year as a condition of going into a governing coalition with the CDU after the German election.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    Dadge said:

    Hammond reminds me of my dad.

    Funny that.......you've just struck a sentimental chord with me...........Hammond reminds me of my dad too....... And that perhaps is the most positive thing I have ever said about a politician........
    Before the PB hagiography hits the stratosphere, Hammond is ridiculously complacent on the state of NHS and social care finance.
    Hammond combines trustworthy, competence with pragmatism....he's a Tory, but with May seemingly over her head, and with no viable opposition...he would be my pick
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    On topic, Hammond should have stood this year, rather than leaving the Remainer side of the contest as a free run for May. If he ever wanted to be PM.

    The fact he didn't suggests that occupying No. 11 is the height of his ambition, and I think he will leave the cabinet at the same time as May.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    tyson said:

    Dadge said:

    Hammond reminds me of my dad.

    Funny that.......you've just struck a sentimental chord with me...........Hammond reminds me of my dad too....... And that perhaps is the most positive thing I have ever said about a politician........
    Before the PB hagiography hits the stratosphere, Hammond is ridiculously complacent on the state of NHS and social care finance.
    Yeah yeah yeah, NHS doomed etc etc.
    It must be that time of year again.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.
    Morris_Dancer said:
    Good morning, everyone.

    Kingdom Asunder is out for release today:
    Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
    Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
    Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246

    Early reviews are up here:
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32852394-kingdom-asunder

    They're very positive, and I do hope you give the book a look. After all, it has the best words.
    -----------------------------------------------
    Terrific news Morris. I will certainly order the first volume and all power to your pen for the subsequent books.

    And I'm not joking here - get on to HBO quick - you never know, you may be in negotiations soon. Luck!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38089702
    Nigel Farage warns of 'seismic shock' if Brexit not delivered

    He says almost exactly what I wrote on here yesterday.
This discussion has been closed.