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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the French Republican primary run-off tomorrow David Herd
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the French Republican primary run-off tomorrow David Herdson wonders why doesn’t France use AV
Just as one never-ending presidential election ends, another begins. France goes to the polls again tomorrow to pick the centre-right candidate of Les Républicains; their choice being between former prime minister Alain Juppé and former prime minister François Fillon.
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Especially given Macron has a much larger pool of votes to borrow from (Bayrou, Hollande) than Fillon.
Happy punting folks.
Plus I have done two AV related threads this year.
AV in the first round would be an improvement, although I doubt it would often change the outcome.
There's a lot to be said for two-round systems, because they allow plenty of choice, but also give the winner plenty of scrutiny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_France#Voting_procedures
(I approve of the fact that ID needs to be shown)
CarlottaVance said:
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Pensions don't 'accrue' - they are paid out of current revenue - so there are no 'pensions accrued in the UK' for the Scottish Government to pay to Scottish Pensioners. Looks like its both wits & pensions you'll be short of....
Dear Dear, no matter that Westminster squander the funding , they have the obligation to pay the UK pension just the same as if they banked the contributions. I cannot believe you are as stupid as you make out , just being obtuse I suspect. If they transfer the liabilities when Scotland becomes independent then they will transfer the funds/assets etc that go with it. So either it will be directly paid by the UK or it will be funded by the UK as a lump sum upfront payment or an ongoing funds transfer. I doubt that the UK welching on its debt would sit well internationally , they are pariah enough with their current xenophobia without also being welchers.
The EU referendum might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/
Plus ca change ...
http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/maps/whole-us.jpg
Unfortunately blinkered unionists , especially Carlotta who hates Scotland and all things Scottish, just cannot grasp that fact.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fake-votes-mar-france-s-first-electronic-election-8641345.html
Predictit severely overestimates the probability of outsiders.
*I have a plastic drinking voucher invested at 28/1
“I would think the Scottish people would expect their Government to take on full responsibility for paying pensions to people in Scotland including where liabilities had arisen before independence. Similarly people in the rest of the UK would not be expecting to guarantee or underwrite the pensions of those living in what would then have become a separate country. The security and sustainability of pensions being paid to people in Scotland would, therefore, depend on the ability of Scottish tax payers to fund them.”
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2016/11/beyond-gers-goes-beyond-truth.html
Admittedly, Hollande is highly unlikely to reach the second round - and if he does, it's likely to be because his polling has improved from its current awful levels, which of itself should feed across into the head-to-head figures vs Le Pen - but with the possibility again of someone reaching the run-off on a sub-20 score, I wouldn't entirely rule it out.
But to my mind, the risk of a far-left/far-right run-off, while still lowish, is the greater one.
Could FN lend votes to their preferred candidate in the first round? Obviously it would be a risky strategy, but could they ask people with surnames beginning with certain letters to vote for Melenchon, for example?
I assume your buddy Scott is on vacation today and you are having to do a double shift. You need a rest as your brain seems to be addled. Running out of volunteers at Frother Central it seems.
PS: your selective edit of what Webb said was cleverly done ( NOT ) , you forgot the bit where he said that any pension due to contributions whilst a person was part of UK would be funded by the UK but MAY be distributed by an Independant Scottish Government.
Stick to the fact that the UK could not and would not welch on its liabilities. It currently pays 5.5 million people in separate countries a pension. It was also publicly stated at the time that any UK person could have dual citizenship and so all would remain eligible for the pension they had paid for. Your suggestion that UK would welch is interesting.
both the Scottish Government and the UK Government agree: the Scottish Government would take over responsibility of the payment of pensions of all Scots habitually resident in Scotland at the time of independence. The point of independence would involve the passing of a law (which would be the Act of independence - and the only way to achieve legal independence) which would split these responsibilities along the lines that both sides agree.
As the ECHR noted in the Carson case a track record of NICs does not entitle one to a right to have a pension from the UK state.
The UK already discriminates on the amount of pension one receives based on where you retire to. There is absolutely no legal right to a pension from the UK state based on a NIC contribution - hence Steve Webb’s caution in using the word right in front of the Scottish Select Committee.
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2016/11/the-regression-of-common-weal.html
Missed the punch-line: The last time HMG withdrew from the European
ContinentArchipeligo.5x English batsmen chucking their wickets + 1 AV thread = Spurs away to Chelsea
so that's a 5-1 tonking then
The Scottish Government pays the pensions of Scottish citizens, including those in payment.
That’s why both sides agree, because in a democracy there is only one logical outcome.
It’s why the Scottish Government issued a paper saying that they would take full responsibility for all pensions, it’s why their budgets made full provision for paying all pensions, including those currently in payment. It wasn't prudence on the part of the Scottish Government. It was simply the reality of the world they were going to inherit.
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2016/11/the-regression-of-common-weal.html
So now the SNP Scottish Government are 'welching racists'.....
'Would some people lose their British citizenship?
'Current British nationality law – the British Nationality Act 1981 - does not prevent British citizens from holding dual/multiple nationalities.
Assuming that Scottish nationality law also allowed for dual citizenship, British citizens who became eligible for Scottish citizenship could, in theory, become dual Scottish/British citizens.
However, it is possible that the UK Government would decide to impose some qualifying restrictions on who could continue to claim British citizenship – for example, by requiring a historical or ongoing connection to the rest of the UK, or requiring people to actively choose to retain their British citizenship. This would have some similarities with the approach taken in 1949 towards citizens of Eire after the Republic of Ireland was established.'
http://tinyurl.com/zos3pt8
:feckwit:
NB: Shyte-editor of post....
Edit: Apparently there is! Well surely the answer is to do above, and divide the fund up!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Insurance_Fund
It's also why I think Macron (24s on Betfair!) is fabulous value. I think Bayrou and Hollande supporters will vote Macron in the first round to avoid the risk of a Fillon v Le Pen second round. Given Bayrou is just 9% in the polls, him pulling out completely has to be possible.
Pensions are tricky though. Issues are still grinding on between the Czech Republic and Slovakia, although I think the issues relate to EU law, which both countries are members of.
If he recovers to the high teens (which he won't), then presumably something has happened to change perceptions of him, and he wouldn't lose to MLP in the second round.
More interesting is what happens if Valls becomes the Socialist candidate, and Fillon the LR one. First round scores are probably then Fillon 18%, Macron 14%, Valls 12%, Melenchon 12%, Bayrou 8%.
What we have seen in the first round of the LR primary, and in 2012, is a slight sorting *in favour* of candidates who might eventually win, even in the first round. In 2012 that meant backers of minor parties slightly moved to one of the top three candidates, shifting the vote by 1-2%.
Edit: This plot may show the optimum time for Indy Ref 2 in ~2028
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/10/10/1412937338375_wps_4_spt_fig_2_jpg.jpg
I have bad news. They're not. They've been spent.
Pensions are funded from current income - and raising that current income will fall to the governments of Scotland and rUK. And the electorates of both will expect income raised in their countries to be spent on their own pensioners - not on another country's. Why would Scottish tax payers want to pay the pensions of English pensioners?
Of course, Fillon could get there first; perhaps offering him his Minister of Education job back. But I reckon that Bayrou and Macron are quite similar centrists.
(Kudos to Macron for marrying his old drama teacher...)
http://www.iam-media.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=1d739f07-4a98-4248-9f96-95cadcbe09f7
And we all agree that pollsters of any stripe are crap, as they try and manage a social and twitter revolution that has the polls beaten by wide margins.
:this-add-was-not-endorsed-by-the-jockanese-clown-collective: