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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right today’s Republican prim

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right today’s Republican primary winner will be the next President of France

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  • I know it's a typo, but I quite like this Pillon guy. It's like Fillon and a Pillock, all in one.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Do we have much polling for the first round next year? Feel like Fillon is a touch high at 69% given how unpredictable that is going to be.
  • FPT

    @RCS

    Valls doesn't do much better for the Socialists, but for Macron I think it is a big bonus to have a man who embodies the France in need of his reforms standing on the stage with him. He would have liked two, but never mind.
  • DanSmith said:

    Do we have much polling for the first round next year? Feel like Fillon is a touch high at 69% given how unpredictable that is going to be.

    Not many with Fillon:

    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017
  • I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.
  • I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    Mélenchon is capped. Bayrou is better shout at an outsider (I mean, 0.3% chance of winning is a bit difficult to say right or wrong on)
  • I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    Mélenchon is capped. Bayrou is better shout at an outsider (I mean, 0.3% chance of winning is a bit difficult to say right or wrong on)
    Capped for sure, but ~20% is achievable with the right campaign or a favourable conjunction of events, especially if the Socialist candidate bombs. That might be all it takes. Then it's Austria again.
  • French election - Here are the first post-primary polls
    As expected they are very good for Fillon

    Harris Interactive
    Fillon 26 Le Pen 24 Macron 14 Mélenchon 13 Hollande 9 Bayrou 6
    Jadot 3 Dupont Aignan 3 Poutou 1 Arthaud 1
    Second round: Fillon 67 Le Pen 33

    Odoxa
    Fillon 32 Le Pen 22 Macron 13 Mélenchon 12 Hollande 8 Bayrou 6
    Jadot 2 Dupont Aignan 2 Arthaud 2 Poutou 1
    Second round Fillon 71 Le Pen 29
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    Mélenchon is capped. Bayrou is better shout at an outsider (I mean, 0.3% chance of winning is a bit difficult to say right or wrong on)
    Capped for sure, but ~20% is achievable with the right campaign or a favourable conjunction of events, especially if the Socialist candidate bombs. That might be all it takes. Then it's Austria again.
    ~20% is about 7 million votes. They have to come from somewhere and it will take more than the failure of another candidate.
  • Obviously these polls are the result of the very good exposure Fillon received in the last few days. It is nevertheless a great starting point for him, especially as it shows his capacity to reduce Le Pen's score.
    As far as I know, 22 is her lowest score in a presidential poll since 2013.
  • There could be other major developments in the presidential race in the next few days on the left. Prime Minister Valls has refused to say (in an interview published Sunday) that he would not challenge President Hollande in the socialist primary.
    A dismissal or resignation seems a strong possibility this week.

    The Harris Interactive poll also tested Valls as a candidate but he did not have better results, reachin only 9% and fifth place as Hollande.
  • I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    Mélenchon is capped. Bayrou is better shout at an outsider (I mean, 0.3% chance of winning is a bit difficult to say right or wrong on)
    Bayrou is not sure to run. He has issued a press release tonight as vague as possible to kee his options open. Buut the fact is that he has absolutely no chance. He could have reached 10% or a bit more without Macron. But now Macron is basically Bayrou (almost exactly the same positioning) with better looks and 25 years younger.
    And of course Macron has already asked Bayrou to join him. He might just do it but I'm not sure it would bring many more votes to Macron.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016

    I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    I bought some Dupont-Aignan at 1000. If Le Pen crashes out for some reason, he gets the Breitbart franchise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Dromedary said:

    I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    I bought some Dupont-Aignan at 1000. If Le Pen crashes out for some reason, he gets the Breitbart franchise.
    Breitbart don't even have a French site yet and even if they did, they wouldn't give much of a boost to the farmer friendly Dupont-Aignan.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    I like this article:

    http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html

    In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:

    The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    If the betting markets had it right then President-elect Clinton would be calling PM David Cameron to protest against Britain's role in the EU army after Remain's clear referendum victory.
  • Dromedary said:

    I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    I bought some Dupont-Aignan at 1000. If Le Pen crashes out for some reason, he gets the Breitbart franchise.
    Breitbart don't even have a French site yet and even if they did, they wouldn't give much of a boost to the farmer friendly Dupont-Aignan.
    Dupont-Aignan is a former centre-right MP who left the UMP (predecessor of the Republicains) in 2007 to run for the Presidency. He gets the vote of the very eurosceptic and very right-wing people that just can't bring themselves to vote Le Pen, especially now that the Front national trends almost anti-capitalist. Usually his movement gets a more middle-class vote than Le Pen.

    Agreed with Breitbart. France has already its own far-right websites that are doing really well (fdesouche, riposte laique, boulevard voltaire...). I'm not sure what Breitbart would bring to the Front National, especially as Ms Le Pen's fans are usually violently anti-US.
  • The big test for Le Pen now is to regain the lead in the polls as soon as possible, just to regain her "inevitable second-rounder" status.

    The funny thing is that the Hysterical Left-wing attacks this week against Fillon seems to have only weakened Le Pen by proving that Fillon is also an enemy of the leftist inquisitors who consider their right to choose for everyone else.

    The most blatant example is that in 2011 not a single right-wing journalist or politician called right-wing electors to go and rig the socialist open primary.
    This time all the left-wing press (Le Monde, Liberation, L'Obs, Inrocks, Challenges, and of course the public radio and tv channels) and many politicians (even socialist MPs and ministers) openly called left-wing electors to designate the only right-wing candidate deemed suitable by them (Juppe).

    The funny thing is that it backfired spectacularly. Of course without left-wing voters Juppe would have barely reached 20% of the vote, but helping him to reach 35 did not accomplish anything. Except that each voter paid 2 euros and Fillon will start with a nice war chest thanks in part to these socialists with a very cunning plan...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    I'm not in the market but if I were I'd be buying Melenchon at 100-1 and Bayrou at 300-1, at the very least as trading bets. Anything could happen between now and the first round, and it looks like it's going to take less than 20% to finish second.

    Mélenchon is capped. Bayrou is better shout at an outsider (I mean, 0.3% chance of winning is a bit difficult to say right or wrong on)
    Bayrou is not sure to run. He has issued a press release tonight as vague as possible to kee his options open. Buut the fact is that he has absolutely no chance. He could have reached 10% or a bit more without Macron. But now Macron is basically Bayrou (almost exactly the same positioning) with better looks and 25 years younger.
    And of course Macron has already asked Bayrou to join him. He might just do it but I'm not sure it would bring many more votes to Macron.
    If Bayrou chooses not to stand, where does his 6-8% go to? I'd reckon most to Macron, with a small account to the Socialist and Fillon. At the very least it takes him into the high teens. It also makes Macron the only choice for Socialist or Green voters who want to prevent a Fillon vs Le Pen run off.

    I'd give him a 15% chance of making the final two, with him losing to Fillon, but beating Le Pen
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    The big test for Le Pen now is to regain the lead in the polls as soon as possible, just to regain her "inevitable second-rounder" status.

    The funny thing is that the Hysterical Left-wing attacks this week against Fillon seems to have only weakened Le Pen by proving that Fillon is also an enemy of the leftist inquisitors who consider their right to choose for everyone else.

    The most blatant example is that in 2011 not a single right-wing journalist or politician called right-wing electors to go and rig the socialist open primary.
    This time all the left-wing press (Le Monde, Liberation, L'Obs, Inrocks, Challenges, and of course the public radio and tv channels) and many politicians (even socialist MPs and ministers) openly called left-wing electors to designate the only right-wing candidate deemed suitable by them (Juppe).

    The funny thing is that it backfired spectacularly. Of course without left-wing voters Juppe would have barely reached 20% of the vote, but helping him to reach 35 did not accomplish anything. Except that each voter paid 2 euros and Fillon will start with a nice war chest thanks in part to these socialists with a very cunning plan...

    I also think Fillon rocked the debates. France wanted to hear "we have a problem with a large minority Muslim population", and Juppe gave them multiculturalism.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The big test for Le Pen now is to regain the lead in the polls as soon as possible, just to regain her "inevitable second-rounder" status.

    The funny thing is that the Hysterical Left-wing attacks this week against Fillon seems to have only weakened Le Pen by proving that Fillon is also an enemy of the leftist inquisitors who consider their right to choose for everyone else.

    The most blatant example is that in 2011 not a single right-wing journalist or politician called right-wing electors to go and rig the socialist open primary.
    This time all the left-wing press (Le Monde, Liberation, L'Obs, Inrocks, Challenges, and of course the public radio and tv channels) and many politicians (even socialist MPs and ministers) openly called left-wing electors to designate the only right-wing candidate deemed suitable by them (Juppe).

    The funny thing is that it backfired spectacularly. Of course without left-wing voters Juppe would have barely reached 20% of the vote, but helping him to reach 35 did not accomplish anything. Except that each voter paid 2 euros and Fillon will start with a nice war chest thanks in part to these socialists with a very cunning plan...

    I also think Fillon rocked the debates. France wanted to hear "we have a problem with a large minority Muslim population", and Juppe gave them multiculturalism.
    Juppe's problem was that he campaigned in the primary as if he was already in the second round of next year's election.

    He had also a very poor campaign team. Worse, he let P. Stefanini, his right-hand man for decades, go work for Fillon. Stefanini was already a legend since he engineered the campaign of Chirac in 1995 (taking him from 15% in the poll to the presidency by running as a quasi-left wing insurgent) and lots of supposedly unwinnable campaigns at regional or municipal level.
    As Fillon's campaign director he managed a strong and efficient network, with hundreds of local meetings and millions of pieces of campaign literature in target areas. In many strongly right-wing areas, the only campaign literature received was from Fillon. It worked very well as a support to his debating performances, especially with pensioners (who represented a large part of the selectorate).

    Juppe had a very small team, relying mainly on national media appearances and on enthusiatic but very inexperienced young supporters. They were proven to be extremely complacent.
    Sarkozy did not have the same ground game but thought he could rely on old barons to deliver "their" votes in right-wing areas. It completely failed, even in his own former constituency.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    So UKIPs new-new leader is announced today. Any bets on how long (s)he will last, and what will be their downfall?

    *) Fight with another UKIP MEP.
    *) Was never really leader.
    *) Turns out to be an immigrant.
    *) Turns out to be sane.
    *) Is really Nigel Farage in a mask.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Fillon is more right-wing than Le Pen in his social conservatism and more radical in his free market beliefs; on that topic, Le Pen is more socialist. Non-PC left-leaning French folk, who aren't troubled by the FN's racism, are more likely to vote for Le Pen. They won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round even if they don't vote for Le Pen. Juppe would have been a better candidate, without the social conservatism and radical free-marketeering, to pick up votes of centrist and left-leaning voters in the 2nd round.

    By the way, those on this site who think that Breitbart might come out in support of Le Pen seem to have lost sight of the ethnic background of the man who founded and those who own/run this news website; the FN would be an anathema to them, unlike Trump (or UKIP).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    DavidL said:

    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.

    Fillon is not conflicted, his views are internally consistent. He has a sound moral perspective on feticide and same sex marriage, but is no racist or isolationist. He seems someone who I could enthusiastically vote for if he was a British politician. However, his views are an anathema to socially liberal, left-leaning folk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.

    There are six months of exposure for him ahead. Can he sustain the hype? Probably not. His odds seem too short to be value. I am Laying him at present. There are several large left wing bloce that I cannot see backing him.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Just for info, there's a few theories about the USA recount floating around

    - It's a Stein scam to exploit voter unhappiness to line Green Party coffers, that seems plausible if you've a low opinion of her scruples.

    - It's now a joint scam in collusion with Team Hillary to generally undermine the legitimacy of Trump, that's gaining ground given Hillary could've shut down this in a minute.

    - It's a ploy to deliberately mess up the Electoral College confirmation timetable by saying it's impossible to complete recounts in time. Given the tedious process used, this also has credibility. There are of course no recounts in marginal Hillary win states - and many reports of pressure/threats to create faithless voters.

    There are others, but these are getting the most chatter.

    What exciting times.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    DavidL said:

    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.

    There are six months of exposure for him ahead. Can he sustain the hype? Probably not. His odds seem too short to be value. I am Laying him at present. There are several large left wing bloce that I cannot see backing him.
    Unless someone like Bayrou or Macron can come through the middle - which looks like a long shot - the left won't have much (realistic) alternative other than to back Fillon, if he ends up head to head with Ms LP?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    PlatoSaid said:

    Just for info, there's a few theories about the USA recount floating around

    - It's a Stein scam to exploit voter unhappiness to line Green Party coffers, that seems plausible if you've a low opinion of her scruples.

    - It's now a joint scam in collusion with Team Hillary to generally undermine the legitimacy of Trump, that's gaining ground given Hillary could've shut down this in a minute.

    - It's a ploy to deliberately mess up the Electoral College confirmation timetable by saying it's impossible to complete recounts in time. Given the tedious process used, this also has credibility. There are of course no recounts in marginal Hillary win states - and many reports of pressure/threats to create faithless voters.

    There are others, but these are getting the most chatter.

    What exciting times.

    1. My understanding is she has said she will give excess money to efforts to improve voting system. Presumably that doesn't include the green party! I'd imagine (although not sure) that it's illegal to take money intended for one thing- and then contribute it to a political party...

    2. Don't see how Hilary could have 'shut this down'... Stein can do it on her own if she likes- Hilary can't stop her.

    3. Trump will be sworn in on time- Obama is clearly very keen on an orderly transition of power.

    There are no recounts in marginal Hilary win states because Trump doesn't need them! He has won! If he needed a recount... you can be sure a recount would be happening.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    PlatoSaid said:

    Just for info, there's a few theories about the USA recount floating around

    - It's a Stein scam to exploit voter unhappiness to line Green Party coffers, that seems plausible if you've a low opinion of her scruples.

    - It's now a joint scam in collusion with Team Hillary to generally undermine the legitimacy of Trump, that's gaining ground given Hillary could've shut down this in a minute.

    - It's a ploy to deliberately mess up the Electoral College confirmation timetable by saying it's impossible to complete recounts in time. Given the tedious process used, this also has credibility. There are of course no recounts in marginal Hillary win states - and many reports of pressure/threats to create faithless voters.

    There are others, but these are getting the most chatter.

    What exciting times.

    LOL. "Mot chatter" = the most inane b.s. that you get on your highly biased feed. :)

    The US electoral system is borken (*). As such, I support any attempt to try to work out if the system is actually working at all properly. Recounts would provide evidence some either way.

    Remember, we're not just talking about a system where many places use voting machines that are highly flawed; as Trump said overnight, there may be many illegals voting, whilst on the other side, there have been serious attempts to stop people who have the right to, from voting.

    Given this, anything that puts pressure on them to move to a saner system is to be congratulated; for light needs to be shone upon the fractures in the system. It does not need to be swept under the carpet and ignored.

    (*) If you remember, I have said this before this election as well.
  • daodao said:

    Fillon is more right-wing than Le Pen in his social conservatism and more radical in his free market beliefs; on that topic, Le Pen is more socialist. Non-PC left-leaning French folk, who aren't troubled by the FN's racism, are more likely to vote for Le Pen. They won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round even if they don't vote for Le Pen. Juppe would have been a better candidate, without the social conservatism and radical free-marketeering, to pick up votes of centrist and left-leaning voters in the 2nd round.

    By the way, those on this site who think that Breitbart might come out in support of Le Pen seem to have lost sight of the ethnic background of the man who founded and those who own/run this news website; the FN would be an anathema to them, unlike Trump (or UKIP).

    "Non-PC left-leaning French folk" not troubled by racism simply do not exist.
    What I mean is that these people already vote Le Pen and that explains her high first-round score..
    The people still calling themselves left-wingers in France (around a third of voters) are defined mainly by their strong opposition to Le Pen.

    To be clear, no one will vote Mélenchon, Montebourg, Jadot, Valls or Hollande in the first round and then Le Pen (well at least not enough to be statiscally significant).
    Some will certainly abstain but no transfers can be expected.

    The only hope of victory for Marine Le Pen is to face a left-winger because some Republicains voters would choose her over a socialist (or worse a far-leftist like Melenchon). But it seems pretty unlikely for the moment.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    I agree... seems far too early to have such a heavy favourite.
    Market seems to be assuming it's him vs. Le Pen and he will win easily if that's the case.
    Both sizeable assumptions I would suggest...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.

    There are six months of exposure for him ahead. Can he sustain the hype? Probably not. His odds seem too short to be value. I am Laying him at present. There are several large left wing bloce that I cannot see backing him.
    The other weird thing about him is that this is about as far from a Trump as you can find. He has been a professional politician his entire life and a not particularly successful Prime Minister for the best part of 5 years. The French are a bit weird.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    England seem to be already bowling for the draw here. Don't fancy their chances.
  • DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    The differences are pretty clear:

    Le Pen says she wants to exit the euro and the EU, closing the frontiers ASAP and re-establish strong tariffs even with european neighbors.
    (that's the part of her program many of her supporters find too radical so she tends to tone it down during campaigns).

    Fillon says he wants to abandon the fiction of a federation of 27 members and concentrate on a renewed euro-zone: keeping the euro but with joint economic policies decided by heads of state and governments, not the Commission or the European Parliament.
  • rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    I agree... seems far too early to have such a heavy favourite.
    Market seems to be assuming it's him vs. Le Pen and he will win easily if that's the case.
    Both sizeable assumptions I would suggest...
    I agree that his price is too short. The campaign is still very long ( almost 6 months).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    The differences are pretty clear:

    Le Pen says she wants to exit the euro and the EU, closing the frontiers ASAP and re-establish strong tariffs even with european neighbors.
    (that's the part of her program many of her supporters find too radical so she tends to tone it down during campaigns).

    Fillon says he wants to abandon the fiction of a federation of 27 members and concentrate on a renewed euro-zone: keeping the euro but with joint economic policies decided by heads of state and governments, not the Commission or the European Parliament.
    Thanks. Fillon's approach is what many Brexiteers including myself thought was an inevitable consequence of the Euro with its members coming to dominate EU policy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    Fillon is a Eurosceptic, by French standards. It's just that a French Eurosceptic looks awfully like a British Europhile.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    Fillon is a Eurosceptic, by French standards. It's just that a French Eurosceptic looks awfully like a British Europhile.
    Or a Cameroon? Believing that reform is essential but fundamentally that there is no other game in town.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Fillon's post-referendum speech was straight from the Cameron playbook.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    daodao said:

    Fillon is more right-wing than Le Pen in his social conservatism and more radical in his free market beliefs; on that topic, Le Pen is more socialist. Non-PC left-leaning French folk, who aren't troubled by the FN's racism, are more likely to vote for Le Pen. They won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round even if they don't vote for Le Pen. Juppe would have been a better candidate, without the social conservatism and radical free-marketeering, to pick up votes of centrist and left-leaning voters in the 2nd round.

    By the way, those on this site who think that Breitbart might come out in support of Le Pen seem to have lost sight of the ethnic background of the man who founded and those who own/run this news website; the FN would be an anathema to them, unlike Trump (or UKIP).

    "Non-PC left-leaning French folk" not troubled by racism simply do not exist.
    What I mean is that these people already vote Le Pen and that explains her high first-round score..
    The people still calling themselves left-wingers in France (around a third of voters) are defined mainly by their strong opposition to Le Pen.

    To be clear, no one will vote Mélenchon, Montebourg, Jadot, Valls or Hollande in the first round and then Le Pen (well at least not enough to be statiscally significant).
    Some will certainly abstain but no transfers can be expected.

    The only hope of victory for Marine Le Pen is to face a left-winger because some Republicains voters would choose her over a socialist (or worse a far-leftist like Melenchon). But it seems pretty unlikely for the moment.

    The votes last year bear out your views: when the Socialist stood down, and it was a straight LR vs FN battle, the FN got at most 5% of transfers, against 95% for LR.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    Fillon is a Eurosceptic, by French standards. It's just that a French Eurosceptic looks awfully like a British Europhile.
    I think it looks like closer to a mild sceptic, the people who were browbeaten into voting remain by the doom mongers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    DavidL said:

    Or a Cameroon? Believing that reform is essential but fundamentally that there is no other game in town.

    I think it's important to see the EU, and France's place in it, through the eyes of Franco-German rivalry. For France to walk out would be like delivering de facto control of the EU (and therefore Europe) to the Germans.

    Fillon will push back against further federalism, will want greater contols on migrants coming from outside the EU, would be sympathetic to trying to prevent benefit shopping.

    But he sees the EU as the institution that allows Italy, France and Spain to limit German hegemony. I think that is so central to French thinking, that I think they cannot countenance leaving the EU.

    Italy is less hung up on history, while Spain and most of the smaller countries remain very Europhile. If the EU collapses in the next decade, it will have been because Italy was never able to adjust its economic model to work in the Eurozone.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    Fillon is more right-wing than Le Pen in his social conservatism and more radical in his free market beliefs; on that topic, Le Pen is more socialist. Non-PC left-leaning French folk, who aren't troubled by the FN's racism, are more likely to vote for Le Pen. They won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round even if they don't vote for Le Pen. Juppe would have been a better candidate, without the social conservatism and radical free-marketeering, to pick up votes of centrist and left-leaning voters in the 2nd round.

    By the way, those on this site who think that Breitbart might come out in support of Le Pen seem to have lost sight of the ethnic background of the man who founded and those who own/run this news website; the FN would be an anathema to them, unlike Trump (or UKIP).

    "Non-PC left-leaning French folk" not troubled by racism simply do not exist.
    What I mean is that these people already vote Le Pen and that explains her high first-round score..
    The people still calling themselves left-wingers in France (around a third of voters) are defined mainly by their strong opposition to Le Pen.

    To be clear, no one will vote Mélenchon, Montebourg, Jadot, Valls or Hollande in the first round and then Le Pen (well at least not enough to be statiscally significant).
    Some will certainly abstain but no transfers can be expected.

    The only hope of victory for Marine Le Pen is to face a left-winger because some Republicains voters would choose her over a socialist (or worse a far-leftist like Melenchon). But it seems pretty unlikely for the moment.

    The votes last year bear out your views: when the Socialist stood down, and it was a straight LR vs FN battle, the FN got at most 5% of transfers, against 95% for LR.
    To an extent it was the same here with UKIP here last May. A high floor and a low ceiling, only coming vaguely close in 3 way contests where 30ish percent could win it.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Fillon's rise has certainly been remarkable and you have to wonder if someone who was barely troubling the scorers only a couple of months ago can really be nailed on in the way that the markets are indicating. But I have very little feel for French politics.

    As Chris from Paris pointed out, Juppe pivoted to the centre too early. The French Right was desperate for a candidate who combined electability, and right wing credentials, and who wasn't Sarkozy. Juppe's biggest attraction was that he was not Sarkozy.

    My personal take on France - and I must admit this is mostly due to spending time with the elites, so make of it what you will - is that there are two big issues:

    1. They have a very large Muslim population (twice the size of ours), and which is even poorer, less well educated, and less integrated.

    2. The French state is considered too big, too bloated, and too much of a drag. The French compare themselves to the Germans, and they see that Germany has been a big success in the last decade, and France has not. They're angry about this, and they want change.

    No one really worries about Eastern European immigration, because Poles and Estonians have gone to Germany, the Netherlands or the UK and not to France. The Euro is not much liked, but I don't think getting the Franc back is a major concern for more than a tiny minority. If you compare it to the UK, where a large minority of "the elite" were pro-Brexit, there is nothing like that in France. I think the idea of walking out and leaving the continent to Germany (for that is how they would see it), would be a complete anathema to most of the French.

    And yet Fillon is also described as a Euro-sceptic. That may mean something different in France than here but on the face of it we are likely to have 2 pro-Russian Euro-sceptics fighting each other in the last round. Whoever wins that a united or coherent negotiating partner representing the EU is going to be more difficult to find.
    Fillon is a Eurosceptic, by French standards. It's just that a French Eurosceptic looks awfully like a British Europhile.
    I think it looks like closer to a mild sceptic, the people who were browbeaten into voting remain by the doom mongers.

    Pragmatists who realise it is a complicated, interconnected world are worth their weight in gold. Willy wavers invariably end up promising the world and delivering disappointment. The willy wavers won, so should get on with delivering the boundless free trade, increased public spending, higher wages, lower taxes and supplicant EU that they promised us.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    How close is Trump to calling for a nationwide recount?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/803033642545115140
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Alistair said:

    How close is Trump to calling for a nationwide recount?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/803033642545115140

    Look! A dead cat!!!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    It does rather seem like that. 2016 managed what all those CIA assassination attempts failed to achieve :wink:

    Mark Conway
    I get the impression that attending Castro's funeral is more important to Jezza than being leader of the Opposition. Probably just me. https://t.co/ltHe5V0N0C
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ITV
    Former FA chief exec tells @GMB dozens of coaches were banned after a 2001 football commission into abuse https://t.co/Xu8qFV39HU https://t.co/ZPsouhmwVN
  • DavidL said:

    And articles like this don't really help: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38108758

    According to this Fillon is a socially conservative, catholic, Gauillist who now thinks Maggie Thatcher had a point and the State needs to be cut back. He sounds somewhat conflicted.

    There are six months of exposure for him ahead. Can he sustain the hype? Probably not. His odds seem too short to be value. I am Laying him at present. There are several large left wing bloce that I cannot see backing him.

    The right's problem is that it wins power on promises of reducing the size of the French state then always gives in once the unions set up the roadblocks and bring the country to its knees. The right's supporters collude in this. There seems to be a general belief that it is easily done. When it turns out this is not the case there is a whole lot of handwringing, a deal is done that leaves things pretty much as they are and the socialists then take over promising bounty that they too are unable to deliver.

    Basically the French people as a whole need to take along hard look at themselves. Le Pen is attractive because she postpones the day when this has to happen. But happen it will have to at some stage.

  • Good morning, everyone.

    Wasn't Clinton a 92% chance?

    F1: season finale post-race ramble is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html
  • A straw in the Brexit wind today. The UK government is set to announce whether the UK will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. If we say we will, then it probably indicates an overall soft-Brexit approach, whatever the rhetoric. If it says we won't, then hard Brext is very much on the cards.

    http://www.iam-media.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=1d739f07-4a98-4248-9f96-95cadcbe09f7
  • Alistair said:

    How close is Trump to calling for a nationwide recount?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/803033642545115140

    It's like Richard Nixon with a twitter account, only with more paranoia
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The poll as per chart is very similar to Polls in the USA at the beginning of the straight fight contest between Trump and Clinton, and we all know how that ended up.
  • rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.

    Just look at the criticism Mark Carney is getting for coming up with a similar plan.

    You need to sort out your fellow travellers in Leave.
  • F1: according to Ted Kravitz, Hamilton wanted to leave Mercedes after the Spanish collision with Rosberg.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.

    He's probably right. One success of the 'immediate, hard brexit' crowd over other Brexit types is calling anything they don't like a betrayal of Brexit. Transitional arrangements and still paying in, even just to minimise shock, will be easy to paint as a betrayal.
    MTimT said:

    I like this article:

    http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html

    In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:

    The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.

    interesting idea

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    MikeK said:

    The poll as per chart is very similar to Polls in the USA at the beginning of the straight fight contest between Trump and Clinton, and we all know how that ended up.

    With the centrist winning the popular vote?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Patrick said:

    If the EU collapses in the next decade, it will have been because Italy was never able to adjust its economic model to work in the Eurozone.
    Ain't that the scary truth.


    Just remember it was Italy who in 92 or 93 kicked up a major fuss because they were not going to be one of the founder members of the eurozone. The Bundesbank fought bravely to keep them out of the first tranche but were politically over ruled. BTP yields then unsurprisingly collapsed as convergence occurred amongst the eurozone founder states.
    This is just an unwinding of that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Thanks to Chris from Paris for his informative, forensic and neutral briefings - they're really helpful. An article by him on the elections at some point would be very welcome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.

    He's probably right. One success of the 'immediate, hard brexit' crowd over other Brexit types is calling anything they don't like a betrayal of Brexit. Transitional arrangements and still paying in, even just to minimise shock, will be easy to paint as a betrayal.
    MTimT said:

    I like this article:

    http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html

    In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:

    The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.

    interesting idea

    The Brexit headbangers have always been, and remain, the principal obstacle to any sort of common sense approach to Britain's future relations with Europe. It is difficult to see any sort of realistic outcome that will ever leave them satisfied; they would be bereft if ever denied the habit of being able to keep banging on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    MikeK said:

    The poll as per chart is very similar to Polls in the USA at the beginning of the straight fight contest between Trump and Clinton, and we all know how that ended up.

    Fillon is miles stronger than Clinton
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    BBC saying judicial review could mean parliament would have to trigger article 127 to take us out of EEA and single market . Another attempt to stop BREXIT ?
  • kjohnw said:

    BBC saying judicial review could mean parliament would have to trigger article 127 to take us out of EEA and single market . Another attempt to stop BREXIT ?

    Nah.
  • Mr. W, it doesn't look good.

    Mr. Eagles, isn't the German chap an elected politician rather than a central bank governor stepping into the policy arena?
  • kjohnw said:

    BBC saying judicial review could mean parliament would have to trigger article 127 to take us out of EEA and single market . Another attempt to stop BREXIT ?

    Morning all,

    I don't think so, just more details about process. As we remainers have said all along, getting out of the EU after 40 years is going to be a very complex and difficult process.
  • timmo said:

    Patrick said:

    If the EU collapses in the next decade, it will have been because Italy was never able to adjust its economic model to work in the Eurozone.
    Ain't that the scary truth.
    Just remember it was Italy who in 92 or 93 kicked up a major fuss because they were not going to be one of the founder members of the eurozone. The Bundesbank fought bravely to keep them out of the first tranche but were politically over ruled. BTP yields then unsurprisingly collapsed as convergence occurred amongst the eurozone founder states.
    This is just an unwinding of that.
    Supersatehood and common currency/exchange rates/interest rates in the real world implies a necessary alignment of attitudes to debt, to politics and to economics. But Italians and Germans are just NOT the same. Merging a Teutonic Calvinist industrious and industrial northern rules loving killjoy with a Catholic carefree corrupt dolce vita semi-permanent chaos loving wideboy isn't a recipe for anything coherent or lasting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    kjohnw said:

    BBC saying judicial review could mean parliament would have to trigger article 127 to take us out of EEA and single market . Another attempt to stop BREXIT ?

    I imagine that's the hope, although once again if the question is about government or parliament triggering things, then so long as the government manages it's MPs it should be fine.
  • Mr. W, it doesn't look good.

    Mr. Eagles, isn't the German chap an elected politician rather than a central bank governor stepping into the policy arena?

    The Governor of the Bank of England holds a few ex officio roles which allow him certain latitudes

    Perhaps you can direct me to your posts criticising him when he intervened during the Indyref in a similar manner.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited November 2016

    Thanks to Chris from Paris for his informative, forensic and neutral briefings - they're really helpful. An article by him on the elections at some point would be very welcome.

    Seconded absolutely - I think Chris has been our Presidential guide since before 2007!
  • Mr. Eagles, if Carney wants to comment on whether we'll join the euro or not upon leaving the EU he's welcome to do so. Currency, inflation and interest rates are all in his area.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Patrick said:

    Supersatehood and common currency/exchange rates/interest rates in the real world implies a necessary alignment of attitudes to debt, to politics and to economics. But Italians and Germans are just NOT the same. Merging a Teutonic Calvinist industrious and industrial northern rules loving killjoy with a Catholic carefree corrupt dolce vita semi-permanent chaos loving wideboy isn't a recipe for anything coherent or lasting.

    I'm not sure Northern and Southern Italians are even on the same page!
  • IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.

    He's probably right. One success of the 'immediate, hard brexit' crowd over other Brexit types is calling anything they don't like a betrayal of Brexit. Transitional arrangements and still paying in, even just to minimise shock, will be easy to paint as a betrayal.
    MTimT said:

    I like this article:

    http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html

    In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:

    The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.

    interesting idea

    The Brexit headbangers have always been, and remain, the principal obstacle to any sort of common sense approach to Britain's future relations with Europe. It is difficult to see any sort of realistic outcome that will ever leave them satisfied; they would be bereft if ever denied the habit of being able to keep banging on.

    Theresa May's willingness to indulge the headbangers in order to stay Prime Minister is pretty disgraceful. But the Tories as a whole seem to have given into them; while the Labour leadership see the trouble hard Brexit will cause as a significant opportunity. Sadly, neither major party is giving much thought to what is best for the country.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I got an email from a German economist today about the "two year transitional period" proposal. Quoth: "In our view, this would be a much better outcome for the UK than a full Brexit in 2019 as long as the UK has the capacity to negotiate external trades deals during the transitional period. That way, the UK could ensure a less disruptive exit from the EU while hopefully bolstering its relationships with its non-EU trading partners. This would help to contain the long-run economic damage for the UK. "

    FWIW, he thinks that most EU states would like a transitional arrangement that saw us continue to pay subscriptions at some level, and which minimised disruption. The big barrier, in his mind, is the UK political environment.

    He's probably right. One success of the 'immediate, hard brexit' crowd over other Brexit types is calling anything they don't like a betrayal of Brexit. Transitional arrangements and still paying in, even just to minimise shock, will be easy to paint as a betrayal.
    MTimT said:

    I like this article:

    http://www.richmond.com/opinion/our-opinion/bart-hinkle/article_9035dbef-a567-5438-9600-6a01fa510654.html

    In particular, I like the idea of the ideological Turing Test:

    The prescription for the ailment is the “Ideological Turing Test,” invented by Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University. It’s simple enough: If you truly understand your political adversary, then you should be able to write an essay explicating his or her point of view well enough that a neutral judge cannot tell the difference.

    interesting idea

    The Brexit headbangers have always been, and remain, the principal obstacle to any sort of common sense approach to Britain's future relations with Europe. It is difficult to see any sort of realistic outcome that will ever leave them satisfied; they would be bereft if ever denied the habit of being able to keep banging on.

    Theresa May's willingness to indulge the headbangers in order to stay Prime Minister is pretty disgraceful. But the Tories as a whole seem to have given into them; while the Labour leadership see the trouble hard Brexit will cause as a significant opportunity. Sadly, neither major party is giving much thought to what is best for the country.

    They do in the loosest sense parties always do - it's best for the country to have a tory/labour agenda, therefore anything done to keep yourself in power, is for the good of the country.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    Supersatehood and common currency/exchange rates/interest rates in the real world implies a necessary alignment of attitudes to debt, to politics and to economics. But Italians and Germans are just NOT the same. Merging a Teutonic Calvinist industrious and industrial northern rules loving killjoy with a Catholic carefree corrupt dolce vita semi-permanent chaos loving wideboy isn't a recipe for anything coherent or lasting.

    I'm not sure Northern and Southern Italians are even on the same page!
    Absolutely! I lived in Italy a number of years ago and found that the Milanese really looked down on the Calabrians
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Mr. Eagles, if Carney wants to comment on whether we'll join the euro or not upon leaving the EU he's welcome to do so. Currency, inflation and interest rates are all in his area.

    Other Central Bank governors, Kuroda in Japan, Yellen in the US, for example, seem allowed to make speeches specifically about economic policy, and even to be very critical of the government of the day.

    I guess the question is, do we want an independent central bank or not? It's OK to say 'no', but then we should give up the pretence and allow the Chancellor to take over monetary policy again.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    The poll as per chart is very similar to Polls in the USA at the beginning of the straight fight contest between Trump and Clinton, and we all know how that ended up.

    Fillon is miles stronger than Clinton
    What a choice for the FR left! Vote for a man who wants to make them work until 65 or vote for the far right.
  • Mr. Eagles, if Carney wants to comment on whether we'll join the euro or not upon leaving the EU he's welcome to do so. Currency, inflation and interest rates are all in his area.

    So that'll be a no then.
  • This could become a major issue, DT reporting that Fillon:

    "He also wants to return British border controls, which currently operate in Calais, to the UK."
  • Have we had a thread on the truly disgusting Corbyn response to Castro's death?

    No doubt the Tories have a little black book of Corbyn horror that will get fully wheeled out at the next GE. That man is repugnant human being. I'm so happy the Labour party is ruled by him.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Regarding Stein

    Deplorable Sarah
    .@GovScottWalker Note that @DrJillStein collected money BEFORE filing recount petition contrary to Wisconsin Election Law. @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/3PInd6wTwM
  • Mr. 1000, we're not Japan.

    Mr. Eagles, commenting on currency, inflation and interest rates is fine. Attempting to influence policy is not. If Carney wants to do that, let him stand for election.
  • Mr. 1000, we're not Japan.

    Mr. Eagles, commenting on currency, inflation and interest rates is fine. Attempting to influence policy is not. If Carney wants to do that, let him stand for election.

    So I'll ask again, can you direct me towards your posts criticising Governor Carney during the Indyref for similar behaviour?

    What part of the Bank of England's independence don't you like ?

    Is it that the Bank and its Governor isn't parroting your lines ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Carney wants to comment on whether we'll join the euro or not upon leaving the EU he's welcome to do so. Currency, inflation and interest rates are all in his area.

    Other Central Bank governors, Kuroda in Japan, Yellen in the US, for example, seem allowed to make speeches specifically about economic policy, and even to be very critical of the government of the day.

    I guess the question is, do we want an independent central bank or not? It's OK to say 'no', but then we should give up the pretence and allow the Chancellor to take over monetary policy again.
    No that isn't the question. The question is simply whether Mark Carney has overstepped and continues to overstep the boundaries of his cearly defined role. If most of us did that, we'd be disciplined before too long. What Japan gets up to is neither here nor there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Patrick said:

    Have we had a thread on the truly disgusting Corbyn response to Castro's death?

    No doubt the Tories have a little black book of Corbyn horror that will get fully wheeled out at the next GE. That man is repugnant human being. I'm so happy the Labour party is ruled by him.

    It would be interesting to see some polling about the way the British public view figures such as Castro. We on here are fairly clued-up politically; it might be that the GBP (Great British Public) don't view him in quite the same way. I bet a large proportion could not even name the country Castro ruled.

    It would also be interesting to see how views on Castro changes between age groups.
  • Mr. Eagles, what behaviour was similar?

    The major intervention Carney made was on currency. If he wants to comment on the UK not joining the eurozone if we leave the EU, that's fine.

    And I'm not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with a transitional period, or perhaps even staying in the single market. I'm saying policy is a matter for politicians, and that if Carney wants to influence matters beyond his job he can stand for election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Mr. 1000, we're not Japan.

    Mr. Eagles, commenting on currency, inflation and interest rates is fine. Attempting to influence policy is not. If Carney wants to do that, let him stand for election.

    So I'll ask again, can you direct me towards your posts criticising Governor Carney during the Indyref for similar behaviour?

    What part of the Bank of England's independence don't you like ?

    Is it that the Bank and its Governor isn't parroting your lines ?
    The Bank of England is independent within it's remit, which does not involve prosletising in order to influence Government policy. Why are you so happy to rip up the rulebook in this instance - because Mark Carney is parroting your lines?
  • JohnO said:

    Thanks to Chris from Paris for his informative, forensic and neutral briefings - they're really helpful. An article by him on the elections at some point would be very welcome.

    Seconded absolutely - I think Chris has been our Presidential guide since before 2007!
    Many thanks to both of you - it'always nice to be able to contribute.
    I will regularly post poll results when I get them . If OGH is interested I could try to do something on the left-wing primary after the list of candidates is clarified (probably not before next week anyway).
  • Mr. Eagles, what behaviour was similar?

    The major intervention Carney made was on currency. If he wants to comment on the UK not joining the eurozone if we leave the EU, that's fine.

    And I'm not saying there's necessarily anything wrong with a transitional period, or perhaps even staying in the single market. I'm saying policy is a matter for politicians, and that if Carney wants to influence matters beyond his job he can stand for election.

    He made interventions on, inter alia, the lender of last resort and contingency planning for a Scottish bank run if the Scots voted for independence
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    A ship nearly sunk in the Channel last week:
    http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/207355/maib-kicks-off-investigation-of-saga-sky-collision/

    Looking at the damage, they were lucky to get back to port.

    Extra point if anyone can tell me why railways were involved in this ;)
  • Mr. Eagles, lender of last resort is directly related to currency union...
  • Shocked. Though all parties agreed to postponing the general election, whereas Castro arbitrarily did it.

    Ken Livingstone mentions Hitler while defending Cuban leader as 'absolute giant of 20th Century'

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/fidel-castro-dies-dead-ken-livingstone-hitler-cuba-human-rights-abuses-giant-of-20th-century-a7440536.html
  • Mr. Eagles, lender of last resort is directly related to currency union...

    Not in the context of when the Nats wanted the FCA to continue supervising an iScotland's financial services industry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV
    Former FA chief exec tells @GMB dozens of coaches were banned after a 2001 football commission into abuse https://t.co/Xu8qFV39HU https://t.co/ZPsouhmwVN

    I am rather confused by this whole story. Not to downplay it, but unlike saville et al., the guy has been convicted 3 times and there are now things like CRB checks. The main 2-3 people being interviewed were part of the original criminal trial and it was reported widely in the press at the time ( although the victims were obviously given anonymity).

    I think my question is why now has this story been relit ? Because if saville ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Regarding Stein

    Deplorable Sarah
    .@GovScottWalker Note that @DrJillStein collected money BEFORE filing recount petition contrary to Wisconsin Election Law. @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/3PInd6wTwM

    Margins:

    Minnesota -44,756
    Nevada* -27,202
    Maine -19,995
    New Hampshire* -2,736
    Michigan +10,704
    Wisconsin +22,525
    Pennsylvania +68,030

    Why isn't Stein asking for a recount in Minnesota ?

    Or Maine ?

    Why didn't she ask for one in New Hampshire, or Nevada (Certified now) ?
This discussion has been closed.