That could've been worse, made a lot of money and Labour ended up with fifty more seats than they would've done if the Tories had been led by a competent duo.
The next two to three weeks should be an uncomfortable ride for Labour.
Although I am not a bull on Q2 GDP, it will undoubtedly be positive even if lower than current expectations.
The key announcements will be the public finances for the quarter, the OBR's July EFO and the PESA 2013 forecasts. We should see some substantial reductions in forecast deficits pre 2015.
I noted that a recent poll revealed that more than 60% of respondents did not believe George Osborne when he claimed that the deficit can be eliminated without further tax increases.
It will become very clear over the next year (EU and other black swans excepted) that Osborne is right and that come 2015, there will be real prospects of moderate tax easing during the next parliamentary term.
The difficulty for Labour is that even if only half of that 60% start to believe Osborne then the polls will swing back to the Tories. It is the 'spare capacity' for opinion change on the core election determinant that should worry Ed.
I'm beginning to think tim's got a point on what goes on PB and the main media like the BBC.
What I've seen/heard on bbc reports,nothing hardly on burnham,more on nurses been cut from wards by this government
If you watch the bbc,you would think it's all this governments fault.
Well on the BBC News Channel earlier a reporter did mention how that some hospitals had been receiving serious complaints for ten years, and raised the question of why it had taken so long for anything to be done about it.
I'm just looking forward to the total deficit being eliminated, and the country running at a surplus (not just the cyclicly-adjusted deficit or whatever it is called).
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Is it to ensure that in the future the failings detailed in the report do not happen again.
Or is it to repeat over and over and over again that labour love the NHS, the nasty tories hate it, its all their fault, and any problems with the NHS are nothing to do with labour and how dare anyone ever suggest such a thing
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Is it to ensure that in the future the failings detailed in the report do not happen again.
Or is it to repeat over and over and over again that labour love the NHS, the nasty tories hate it, its all their fault, and any problems with the NHS are nothing to do with labour and how dare anyone ever suggest such a thing
I'm just looking forward to the total deficit being eliminated, and the country running at a surplus (not just the cyclicly-adjusted deficit or whatever it is called).
There will be a surplus on the Public Sector Net Borrowing (excluding financial interventions) account (PSNB ex) long before the Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget balances. If for no other reasons, bank share sales will see to that.
But a surplus on the borrowing accounts will need to run for a long period to reduce debt.
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Is it to ensure that in the future the failings detailed in the report do not happen again
The first step would require a degree of unanimity in accepting the Keogh (and Francis) findings and recommendations to then enact them. So it then becomes a case of which party does accept them to then go forward. Clegg has been mysteriously silent on the lib dem position thus far so we will have to wait and see where this goes.
Very wise investment of £60 million by the British government in the Sabre engine part of the Skylon project.
Whilst there is only a small chance that the Skylon rocket plane will get off the ground in its anticipated form, the engine technology could be useful in any number of ways. The precooler they have already developed and tested in a (very) prototype form may have all manner of industrial uses.
There is a a small chance that this technology will be a world-changer. But the cost-reward ratio is favourable; a small amount of investment may reap large rewards.
I'm just looking forward to the total deficit being eliminated, and the country running at a surplus (not just the cyclicly-adjusted deficit or whatever it is called).
There will be a surplus on the Public Sector Net Borrowing (excluding financial interventions) account (PSNB ex) long before the Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget balances. If for no other reasons, bank share sales will see to that.
But a surplus on the borrowing accounts will need to run for a long period to reduce debt.
10 years of surplus, in addition to GDP growth, should put a bit of a dent in it. And the money saved in interest payments should be used for further debt reduction.
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Even now the parliamentary Labour Party are trudging through the whips' office to be handed their crib cards. It will be a concerted and relentless display of support for Burnham. The leadership feels that he - and with him Labour's reputation on the NHS - is teetering. And they're terrified.
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Because its genuinely an issue of national importance, and that is what Parliament is (should be) for! You're so cynical
If Labour think that failing care in the NHS is of such national importance why did it take a tory led coalition to have this inquiry?
Why did Andy Burnham spend all day today saying the failings were nothing to do with him or Labour and its all the tories fault?
The government could have just carried on like Labour and suppressed all these reports but to their credit they arranged this inquiry, have published the painful results in full and will now try and sort it out. If Labour thought that it was such an important issue why did they suppress these issues and not have an inquiry?
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
No.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on arguments they can win, and "Labour suppressed bad news about the NHS for political ends" is clearly an argument with merit.
Peter Kellner: "If we compare YouGov and ICM on a like-with-like basis, the differences are not that great. We have Labour on 40% and the Conservatives on 31%. ICM’s ‘raw’ numbers are Labour 38%, Conservatives 33%."
Had ICM reported a five point lead, its poll would have passed virtually unnoticed. But, as usual, it made two adjustments. First, it counted only those whom they think will actually vote. Its Labour respondents were less likely than its Tory respondents to say they will actually vote. By adjusting for this, ICM reduced Labour’s lead from five points to two: 37-35%.
ICM then made a further adjustment. It looked at those respondents who said “don’t know”. Using information about how these people say they voted last time, ICM reckoned that this group contained more people who would, in practice, vote Conservative than Labour. This adjustment brought the two parties level, at 36% each."
I would like to make one more adjustment which ICM did not make. If all Labour voters thus reduced voted Tory, then the poll result will be: 72 - 0. Tory landslide ! But given the Tory organisation, I wouldn't bet on it.
If Labour thought that it was such an important issue why did they suppress these issues and not have an inquiry?
You can't make an omelette without breaking an egg. Labour has a massive interest in preserving the NHS - or more specifically the lifestyles of the high-pay graders within it whom they represent. Labour is the party of hospital managers and health bureaucrats. Secondary considerations, such as patient care, ought not to interfere with this principal objective.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
The key to victory is to attack and destroy your enemy's strength. We've seen that Labour can't be trusted on health and the Coalition should rub that revelation in again and again.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
Just watched itv news at ten and as a neutral, I think it will be hard for Conservatives to pin the blame on Labour when there are incidents being reported that happened only yesterday.
The lib dem MP castigating Hunt for playing partisan politics only adds to this
Secondly, the spokeswomen for both hospitals featured (Tameside and Lincolnshire Pilgrim) came across as no better than the type of Call Centre Supervisors who say your call is important to us and it won't happen again
Seems to me Nursing should be a vocation again, not a career if we want proper care for the vulnerable
WRT to undercover plod using the identities of deceased children. Isn't it fairly standard practice as you're never going to meet in real life the person whose identity you have borrowed. ISTR reading characters in Freddie Forsyth novels who used the same method.
Peter Kellner: "If we compare YouGov and ICM on a like-with-like basis, the differences are not that great. We have Labour on 40% and the Conservatives on 31%. ICM’s ‘raw’ numbers are Labour 38%, Conservatives 33%."
Had ICM reported a five point lead, its poll would have passed virtually unnoticed. But, as usual, it made two adjustments. First, it counted only those whom they think will actually vote. Its Labour respondents were less likely than its Tory respondents to say they will actually vote. By adjusting for this, ICM reduced Labour’s lead from five points to two: 37-35%.
ICM then made a further adjustment. It looked at those respondents who said “don’t know”. Using information about how these people say they voted last time, ICM reckoned that this group contained more people who would, in practice, vote Conservative than Labour. This adjustment brought the two parties level, at 36% each."
I would like to make one more adjustment which ICM did not make. If all Labour voters thus reduced voted Tory, then the poll result will be: 72 - 0. Tory landslide ! But given the Tory organisation, I wouldn't bet on it.
This is the worst day for Labour I've seen in my many decades of following British politics. Yes, Labour governments have always had nightmares when they've strayed into spheres beyond they're vaguest competence (economic management, sensible welfare policy etc.), but I'd never thought I'd see Labour in opposition get pummelled over the NHS. Still, looking forward to Operation SOB (Save our Burnham) tomorrow.
We could go over the Lansley debacle but I fear poor old Seth might start crying and lose the will to spin which would be a great loss to comedy.
Instead.
PFI deals crippling the NHS with £1.5bn of handouts needed: PAC report
Patients in every part of the country face having their NHS services merged, closed or moved to address the financial crisis, a scathing report warned, as crippling PFI debts mean the government will have to hand over £1.5bn of bailouts.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
If Carlsberg did the Conservatives PR on the NHS..... For the last few days, Andy Burnham has been making the whole of issue of this report and its contents about him and his party's record in Office. There doesn't appear to be any kind of organised response to this issue by the Labour Leadership, and Andy has been a maverick trying to shoot down every headline about the issue since the weekend.
You can feel the utter outrage from the Labour Party that anyone would dare criticise Burnham or their Government's stewardship of the NHS as if their ownership of this public sacred cow was was beyond reproach. Only one major problem, its not the Conservatives who are undermining the Labour party here, its their own behaviour in reaction to this report. Watching Andy Burnham trying that old trick the SNP so often use by trying to divert any direct criticism of his tenure as Health Minister into an insult to our health workers is unedifying. Well, almost as unedifying as the decision from day 1 of the Coalition Government to use the NHS as a political football right up until the next GE.
Can any poster please give a reason as to why labour have called for a three hour debate tomorrow on this NHS report?
Because its genuinely an issue of national importance, and that is what Parliament is (should be) for! You're so cynical
If Labour think that failing care in the NHS is of such national importance why did it take a tory led coalition to have this inquiry?
Why did Andy Burnham spend all day today saying the failings were nothing to do with him or Labour and its all the tories fault?
The government could have just carried on like Labour and suppressed all these reports but to their credit they arranged this inquiry, have published the painful results in full and will now try and sort it out. If Labour thought that it was such an important issue why did they suppress these issues and not have an inquiry?
This is the worst day for Labour I've seen in my many decades of following British politics.
Horsesh*t.
Iraq? David Kelly? Brown and Blair at each others throats? Expenses scandal? Banking catastrophe?
Yes, but you'd expect Labour to muck those sort of things up. But its own totem turned into a stick to beat it... this is a human and political disaster on an epic scale.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
'Surely the most important thing for the tories to do is try to resolve the problems'
'Disagree completely'
??
As you say, the baby eaters can never win on the NHS, many people's jobs depend on it, and trying to make it a patient centric thing probably isn't a good policy.
However, that doesn't mean that it isn't the right thing to do.
That is nonsense. The Lansley reforms are no more and no less political than any number of reforms by other health ministers. Burnham promised in a speech that I witnessed to work within the new structures.
There are some really serious problems at these hospitals and tackling these quite rightly need urgent attention. Taking the right action rather than covering up is simply the right thing to do.
The report can be read here, and has some interesting bits as well as begging lots of other questions:
If Carlsberg did the Conservatives PR on the NHS..... For the last few days, Andy Burnham has been making the whole of issue of this report and its contents about him and his party's record in Office. There doesn't appear to be any kind of organised response to this issue by the Labour Leadership, and Andy has been a maverick trying to shoot down every headline about the issue since the weekend.
You can feel the utter outrage from the Labour Party that anyone would dare criticise Burnham or their Government's stewardship of the NHS as if their ownership of this public sacred cow was was beyond reproach. Only one major problem, its not the Conservatives who are undermining the Labour party here, its their own behaviour in reaction to this report. Watching Andy Burnham trying that old trick the SNP so often use by trying to divert any direct criticism of his tenure as Health Minister into an insult to our health workers is unedifying. Well, almost as unedifying as the decision from day 1 of the Coalition Government to use the NHS as a political football right up until the next GE.
What guaranteed the NHS would be politicised of course was Cameron's lie on the reorganisation. A lie he used his family to make.
You are happy to criticise Clegg over tuition fees.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
So it would it have been better for the tories if this inquiry had never happened?
Maybe, just maybe they actually want to improve the country, its public services and its economy rather than just having such a lust for power that the most important thing is getting re-elected, not the good of the country. If they get hammered ay the next GE for trying to improve the country at the risk of falling political fortunes then the UK will really get the government it deserves. This may be a naive thought but surely shouldn't the government be praised for trying to improve the NHS rather than just worrying about the political implications, especially if they will be as dire for them as you predict.
What an appalling example of BBC "impartiality" on Newsnight. Emily Maitless treated Jeremy Hunt with disdain and indisguised hostility, clearly diverting all the blame away from Labour on to the Conservatives. This was the only reference tonight on the main news item of the day. They then went on to cigarette packaging and lobbying. The BBC is beyond p[arody.
Mike, I have to disagree with you on this one. As I said in an earlier post, the Labour party have been using the NHS as a political football since the day they left Office, able abated by the growing politicisation of bodies such as the BMA, police Federation and the RCN. And I think that the Conservatives are trying to kick the NHS political football right out of the park before we get anywhere near the next GE campaign.
Its a simple strategy, but its becoming highly effective to finally knock down the notion that the NHS, Police or any other public sector body is beyond criticism.
Jeremy Hunt @Jeremy_Hunt 7h Watershed day. Hard for Health Sec to admit things go wrong, but I'm determined to see poor care rooted out. Transparency is disinfectant.
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
Surely the most important thing for the tories to try and do is resolve the problems with the NHS, which they are trying to do.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
What an appalling example of BBC "impartiality" on Newsnight. Emily Maitless treated Jeremy Hunt with disdain and indisguised hostility, clearly diverting all the blame away from Labour on to the Conservatives. This was the only reference tonight on the main news item of the day. They then went on to cigarette packaging and lobbying. The BBC is beyond p[arody.
Then she turned on the next labour smear against the tories,lynton Crosby ;-)
What an appalling example of BBC "impartiality" on Newsnight. Emily Maitless treated Jeremy Hunt with disdain and indisguised hostility, clearly diverting all the blame away from Labour on to the Conservatives. This was the only reference tonight on the main news item of the day. They then went on to cigarette packaging and lobbying. The BBC is beyond p[arody.
Our host has correctly identified the Conservatives' best strategy on the NHS, which is to shut up. You should press your strengths and minimise your disadvantages.
Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow should be fairly lively. I might even try to find the time to tune in.
Best strategy is shut up and talk about the economy or an area where it is strong.
Too easy Mike.
The good news just keeps on rolling in
And today's news comes from the VISA Consumer Expenditure Index for June, which anticipates the ONS's retail sales bulletin and inputs to GDP expectations for the quarter.
The figures speak for themselves, but let's give Dr. Steve Perry, the Visa sponsor of the survey a bit of blogspace:
“On an annual basis, spending in June grew at its fastest rate in almost three years registering +2.1% growth while month-on-month spending is reassuringly up for the second successive month (+1.1%).
“Spending has strengthened across all expenditure channels with a particular bounce in online spending, which is up +2.1% on last year. There is additional good news for the high street as there has been a halt to falling sales in the clothing & footwear sector following six months of negative growth.
The Lincolnshire Misanthrope won't like it, as it shows consumption led growth (probably part financed by increased consumer borrowing), but in Osborne's favour the increased expenditure does coincide with improving production, manufacturing and services output.
And there is nothing better for tax receipts than increased consumer spend.
Lynton Crosby is going to be turned into Conservative enemy No1 between now and the next GE because he is deemed to be a vital part of the Conservatives re-election operation. if you cannot stand the heat, get out of the kitchen etc. Who can forget the Guardian running 11 consecutive front page attacks on Lord Ashcroft before the last one.
What an appalling example of BBC "impartiality" on Newsnight. Emily Maitless treated Jeremy Hunt with disdain and indisguised hostility, clearly diverting all the blame away from Labour on to the Conservatives. This was the only reference tonight on the main news item of the day. They then went on to cigarette packaging and lobbying. The BBC is beyond p[arody.
Then she turned on the next labour smear against the tories,lynton Crosby ;-)
If the Tories are serious about sorting out some of the quality issues in the NHS then I for one will be impressed.
Whether this will be the result of this report remains to be seen
However it is clear that 14 Trusts in diverse parts of the country were significantly dysfunctional. This would suggest that organisational reform was needed.
The idea of CCGs encompassed a lot of local control, but in practice far too much is being centrally dictated.
Our host has correctly identified the Conservatives' best strategy on the NHS, which is to shut up. You should press your strengths and minimise your disadvantages.
Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow should be fairly lively. I might even try to find the time to tune in.
Our host has correctly identified the Conservatives' best strategy on the NHS, which is to shut up. You should press your strengths and minimise your disadvantages.
Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow should be fairly lively. I might even try to find the time to tune in.
Have I missed a big yellow taxi for Avery on inflation and living standards today?
Not really, tim.
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
Have I missed a big yellow taxi for Avery on inflation and living standards today?
Not really, tim.
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
Have I missed a big yellow taxi for Avery on inflation and living standards today?
Not really, tim.
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
foxinsox
I thought UK GDP was calculated using chained volume measurements so, in theory, price inflation is not an issue and the GDP deflator value can be calculated directly. The statistical snake oil does show however, why getting excited over 0.1% of a difference in GDP is a fools game.
Have I missed a big yellow taxi for Avery on inflation and living standards today?
Not really, tim.
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
Dr. Sox
I noted the Treasury published a document on 'deflators' today. I have downloaded it but not yet had the courage to look at it!
Here are a couple of links for when you are feeling in a masochist mood:
@currystar In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
I agree with you about this Mike. I think one more day tomorrow, and then the Tories need to start concentrating on the economy again, which is where the election will be won or lost.
However, I think the report has basically taken away one of Labour's most potent electoral weapons, that is to say Ed can't go to the electorate and say "the NHS is safe in our hands, vote Labour to keep it away from evil Tories". That line will no longer hold water and it will be largely dismissed by floating voters who will remember the Mail front page because it has personal stories on there, not just random statistics.
It's important because now the NHS is neutral to the Tories where previously it was highly negative. Now both parties will be seen as bad as each other, giving more importance to policy areas in which the Tories have a natural lead (immigration, economy). With Lynton Crosby around I can see them sticking to that message throughout the campaign, it will be hard on immigration and hard on Labour's piss poor economic record with the odd mention of Europe to keep the UKIPpers happy. I don't even think welfare will make a big splash during the election campaign as there is the possibility of going too hard and then seeing personal stories crop up all over the place that will be tough for the Tories to deal with. Immigration is easy, they don't have a vote and people tend not to like them, welfare is tougher for sure and the Tories are already bulletproof on the subject, it would make sense to leave well alone and watch as Labour tie themselves in knots trying to explain why they support the benefits cap, but think it's a bad policy.
@AveryLP is quite right: the UK economic figures keep getting better. I posted the news yesterday that the number of business insolvencies has started to shrink significantly, which is a terrific indicator that slack is being taken up in the economy, and which should (hopefully) be followed by hiring and capital investment.
If we look around the world right now, it is hard to see anywhere improving as much as the UK:
China growth continues to slow The US recovery seems to be losing some steam Germany and France are seeing some negative revision right now Spain and Ireland are, otoh, improving off very low levels
@AveryLP is quite right: the UK economic figures keep getting better. I posted the news yesterday that the number of business insolvencies has started to shrink significantly, which is a terrific indicator that slack is being taken up in the economy, and which should (hopefully) be followed by hiring and capital investment.
If we look around the world right now, it is hard to see anywhere improving as much as the UK:
China growth continues to slow The US recovery seems to be losing some steam Germany and France are seeing some negative revision right now Spain and Ireland are, otoh, improving off very low levels
Robert, what would you put this down to? I am of the opinion that the Chancellor has induced a housing boom that will peak just before the next general election and then the economy will falter again after it, either leaving Labour to pick up the pieces or the Tories to explain why the hell they went back to the old model they said was responsible for so much ill.
According to ICM the LDs are on double the support of UKIP. I bet that even people in ICM don't believe that.
According to Opinium UKIP are on 3 times the support of the LDs. I doubt if even people at Opinium believe that.
It's a fascinating question, UKIP vs LibDems. If an election were held tomorrow, I think UKIP would get c. 14%, and the LibDems 12%.
But there won't be an election tomorrow. There will be on in two years time. And the LibDems are likely to get *some* benefit from the improving economic fundamentals, and a little bit of 'swingback'.
So, my wildly unscientific guess would be that UKIP will probably poll 8-10% in the General, and will (sadly) just fall short of capturing a seat or two. While the LibDems will poll 14-15%, and will retain the bulk of their seats. Quite possibly including everybody's second favourite ginger: Danny Alexander.
@AveryLP is quite right: the UK economic figures keep getting better. I posted the news yesterday that the number of business insolvencies has started to shrink significantly, which is a terrific indicator that slack is being taken up in the economy, and which should (hopefully) be followed by hiring and capital investment.
If we look around the world right now, it is hard to see anywhere improving as much as the UK:
China growth continues to slow The US recovery seems to be losing some steam Germany and France are seeing some negative revision right now Spain and Ireland are, otoh, improving off very low levels
You must be furious with Rajoy, Robert.
Just when the Spanish economy looked to be turning he is caught with his hands in the till.
Still, Germany are fighting hard to keep the show on the road. Deutsche Bank stating the Spanish Banks are now safe.
Also have been fiddling around with the EBA stats on banker pay. Will post in the next couple of days. Absolutely amazing figures for the UK share of EU spoils!
@AveryLP is quite right: the UK economic figures keep getting better. I posted the news yesterday that the number of business insolvencies has started to shrink significantly, which is a terrific indicator that slack is being taken up in the economy, and which should (hopefully) be followed by hiring and capital investment.
If we look around the world right now, it is hard to see anywhere improving as much as the UK:
China growth continues to slow The US recovery seems to be losing some steam Germany and France are seeing some negative revision right now Spain and Ireland are, otoh, improving off very low levels
Robert, what would you put this down to? I am of the opinion that the Chancellor has induced a housing boom that will peak just before the next general election and then the economy will falter again after it, either leaving Labour to pick up the pieces or the Tories to explain why the hell they went back to the old model they said was responsible for so much ill.
Well, I think the UK is simply in the right part of the cycle. China slowing means it buys less capital equipment and commodities (bad for Germany and Australia, respectively). The UK, on the other hand, is more keyed into global consumer spending, with firms like Unilver benefitting from the long-term trend for consumption in emerging markets rising. (Essentially, the emerging markets are going to move from being investment led growth, to consumption led growth. This is good for us, and bad for Germany.)
Just when the Spanish economy looked to be turning he is caught with his hands in the till.
They've all had their hands in the till though so they will let him carry on as PM for a while yet. The court case is better than pro wrestling though. And I used to think Ireland was the most corrupt country in western Europe...
@AveryLP: you want amazing - did you see the story about the Greek finance minister who personally deleted family members names from a list of tax evaders. Unbelievable.
Do you know at what point the deflator became decoupled from RPI? And is there a deflator for inversely hedonic goods. For example Spandau Ballets later works are not up to par with their earlier ones, so the inverse of steadily improving goods.
One could make the case that there are many inversely hedonic goods.
Have I missed a big yellow taxi for Avery on inflation and living standards today?
Not really, tim.
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
Dr. Sox
I noted the Treasury published a document on 'deflators' today. I have downloaded it but not yet had the courage to look at it!
Here are a couple of links for when you are feeling in a masochist mood:
Just when the Spanish economy looked to be turning he is caught with his hands in the till.
They've all had their hands in the till though so they will let him carry on as PM for a while yet. The court case is better than pro wrestling though. And I used to think Ireland was the most corrupt country in western Europe...
Construction booms, excessive leverage and corruption tend to go hand in hand. (See Ireland, Cyprus and Spain)
Comments
First.
Carry On Nurse (1959)
Carry On Doctor (1967)
Carry On Matron (1972)
Carry On Burnham (2013)
http://youtu.be/zI2SXUzMFtQ
What I've seen/heard on bbc reports,nothing hardly on burnham,more on nurses been cut from wards by this government
If you watch the bbc,you would think it's all this governments fault.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1583789/Politicians-at-play-Ed-Balls-and-Andy-Burnham-go-swinging.html
That could've been worse, made a lot of money and Labour ended up with fifty more seats than they would've done if the Tories had been led by a competent duo.
The next two to three weeks should be an uncomfortable ride for Labour.
Although I am not a bull on Q2 GDP, it will undoubtedly be positive even if lower than current expectations.
The key announcements will be the public finances for the quarter, the OBR's July EFO and the PESA 2013 forecasts. We should see some substantial reductions in forecast deficits pre 2015.
I noted that a recent poll revealed that more than 60% of respondents did not believe George Osborne when he claimed that the deficit can be eliminated without further tax increases.
It will become very clear over the next year (EU and other black swans excepted) that Osborne is right and that come 2015, there will be real prospects of moderate tax easing during the next parliamentary term.
The difficulty for Labour is that even if only half of that 60% start to believe Osborne then the polls will swing back to the Tories. It is the 'spare capacity' for opinion change on the core election determinant that should worry Ed.
Is it to ensure that in the future the failings detailed in the report do not happen again.
Or is it to repeat over and over and over again that labour love the NHS, the nasty tories hate it, its all their fault, and any problems with the NHS are nothing to do with labour and how dare anyone ever suggest such a thing
I wonder
http://order-order.com/2013/07/16/labour-health-minister-loses-it-after-debate-jamie-reeds-foul-mouth-tirade/
But a surplus on the borrowing accounts will need to run for a long period to reduce debt.
It's another example, as if we needed further examples, of an organization putting itself and its reputation above the interests of those they serve.
Can the reputation of the Met sink any lower. One hopes not but I fear so.
Whilst there is only a small chance that the Skylon rocket plane will get off the ground in its anticipated form, the engine technology could be useful in any number of ways. The precooler they have already developed and tested in a (very) prototype form may have all manner of industrial uses.
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/sabre.html
There is a a small chance that this technology will be a world-changer. But the cost-reward ratio is favourable; a small amount of investment may reap large rewards.
In the absence of any evidence to the contrary the NHS remains a good issue for LAB and the LDs while a bad issue for the Tories.
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on areas where it is perceived to be strong where it has a message that resonates.
If Labour think that failing care in the NHS is of such national importance why did it take a tory led coalition to have this inquiry?
Why did Andy Burnham spend all day today saying the failings were nothing to do with him or Labour and its all the tories fault?
The government could have just carried on like Labour and suppressed all these reports but to their credit they arranged this inquiry, have published the painful results in full and will now try and sort it out. If Labour thought that it was such an important issue why did they suppress these issues and not have an inquiry?
Jeremy Hunt might have descended to the gutter over the NHS, but he's taken Labour with him
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100226742/jeremy-hunt-might-have-descended-to-the-gutter-over-the-nhs-but-hes-taken-labour-with-him/
The best strategy for the blues is to focus on arguments they can win, and "Labour suppressed bad news about the NHS for political ends" is clearly an argument with merit.
Had ICM reported a five point lead, its poll would have passed virtually unnoticed. But, as usual, it made two adjustments. First, it counted only those whom they think will actually vote. Its Labour respondents were less likely than its Tory respondents to say they will actually vote. By adjusting for this, ICM reduced Labour’s lead from five points to two: 37-35%.
ICM then made a further adjustment. It looked at those respondents who said “don’t know”. Using information about how these people say they voted last time, ICM reckoned that this group contained more people who would, in practice, vote Conservative than Labour. This adjustment brought the two parties level, at 36% each."
I would like to make one more adjustment which ICM did not make. If all Labour voters thus reduced voted Tory, then the poll result will be: 72 - 0. Tory landslide ! But given the Tory organisation, I wouldn't bet on it.
This situation really sums up labour for me. Throw wads of money at something and then produce statistics to show that the results are fantastic and its all down to labour, the reality is of no importance to them, public perception is. Thats what tomorrows debate is about, they want to spend three hours blaming the tories, They don't care whether the recommendations of this report are introduced, to them its all about the blame game and they have to persuade the public its the tories fault. Simple.
You have captured Labour's position precisely.
The lib dem MP castigating Hunt for playing partisan politics only adds to this
Secondly, the spokeswomen for both hospitals featured (Tameside and Lincolnshire Pilgrim) came across as no better than the type of Call Centre Supervisors who say your call is important to us and it won't happen again
Seems to me Nursing should be a vocation again, not a career if we want proper care for the vulnerable
Isn't it fairly standard practice as you're never going to meet in real life the person whose identity you have borrowed.
ISTR reading characters in Freddie Forsyth novels who used the same method.
It should have been obvious to all of us earlier.
Instead.
pic.twitter.com/eRCwEAJXgh
It only comes back to bite you.
The Tories can never win on the NHS and all today has done is lead to accusations that it is playing politics with what has become almost a religion.
Best strategy is shut up and talk about the economy or an area where it is strong.
I'm begninning to wonder if Crosby is applying an Oz template in a totally different culural environment.
Iraq? David Kelly? Brown and Blair at each others throats? Expenses scandal? Lobbying scandals? Banking catastrophe?
You can feel the utter outrage from the Labour Party that anyone would dare criticise Burnham or their Government's stewardship of the NHS as if their ownership of this public sacred cow was was beyond reproach. Only one major problem, its not the Conservatives who are undermining the Labour party here, its their own behaviour in reaction to this report. Watching Andy Burnham trying that old trick the SNP so often use by trying to divert any direct criticism of his tenure as Health Minister into an insult to our health workers is unedifying. Well, almost as unedifying as the decision from day 1 of the Coalition Government to use the NHS as a political football right up until the next GE.
'Disagree completely'
??
As you say, the baby eaters can never win on the NHS, many people's jobs depend on it, and trying to make it a patient centric thing probably isn't a good policy.
However, that doesn't mean that it isn't the right thing to do.
There are some really serious problems at these hospitals and tackling these quite rightly need urgent attention. Taking the right action rather than covering up is simply the right thing to do.
The report can be read here, and has some interesting bits as well as begging lots of other questions:
http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/bruce-keogh-review/Documents/outcomes/keogh-review-final-report.pdf
Maybe, just maybe they actually want to improve the country, its public services and its economy rather than just having such a lust for power that the most important thing is getting re-elected, not the good of the country. If they get hammered ay the next GE for trying to improve the country at the risk of falling political fortunes then the UK will really get the government it deserves. This may be a naive thought but surely shouldn't the government be praised for trying to improve the NHS rather than just worrying about the political implications, especially if they will be as dire for them as you predict.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/thats-enough-fantasy-politics-margaret-thatcher-day-is-not-a-vote-winner/#more-2375
The BBC is beyond p[arody.
Its a simple strategy, but its becoming highly effective to finally knock down the notion that the NHS, Police or any other public sector body is beyond criticism.
Jeremy Hunt @Jeremy_Hunt 7h
Watershed day. Hard for Health Sec to admit things go wrong, but I'm determined to see poor care rooted out. Transparency is disinfectant.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/357249438370115584/photo/1
If any pbers in the Herts / Essex area could tweet this link or put it on their Facebook status.
I would be very grateful.
Thank you.
http://www.herts.police.uk/hertfordshire_constabulary/latest_news/news_articles/160713_-_0416.aspx
Lynton Crosby - the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Admin/BkFill/Default_image_group/2010/4/22/1271956658179/daily-mail-001.jpg
Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow should be fairly lively. I might even try to find the time to tune in.
One thing,labour and it's friends in the media(bbc) will go after Crosby and the tories,starting with lobbying.
Best strategy is shut up and talk about the economy or an area where it is strong.
Too easy Mike.
The good news just keeps on rolling in
And today's news comes from the VISA Consumer Expenditure Index for June, which anticipates the ONS's retail sales bulletin and inputs to GDP expectations for the quarter. The figures speak for themselves, but let's give Dr. Steve Perry, the Visa sponsor of the survey a bit of blogspace:
“On an annual basis, spending in June grew at its fastest rate in almost three years registering +2.1% growth while month-on-month spending is reassuringly up for the second successive month (+1.1%).
“Spending has strengthened across all expenditure channels with a particular bounce in online spending, which is up +2.1% on last year. There is additional good news for the high street as there has been a halt to falling sales in the clothing & footwear sector following six months of negative growth.
The Lincolnshire Misanthrope won't like it, as it shows consumption led growth (probably part financed by increased consumer borrowing), but in Osborne's favour the increased expenditure does coincide with improving production, manufacturing and services output.
And there is nothing better for tax receipts than increased consumer spend.
Whether this will be the result of this report remains to be seen
However it is clear that 14 Trusts in diverse parts of the country were significantly dysfunctional. This would suggest that organisational reform was needed.
The idea of CCGs encompassed a lot of local control, but in practice far too much is being centrally dictated.
This week it's baccy.
What's next weeks meme?
Bloody hell tim,it only seemed like yesterday we were celebrating your five thousandth post.
All those fancy bottles, and expensive 'lifestyle' marketing campaigns.
Vincent Moss @vincentmoss
Did I ever mention my story about the (then) wannabe Cabinet Minister Jeremy Hunt and him fiddling his expenses? http://tinyurl.com/bnjak6y
Inflation came in less than market (and BoE!) expectations and caused postive reaction.
See:
The main contributors to the increase were from motor fuels and clothing and footwear. But economists said the rises reflected a fall in petrol prices and steep high street discounts a year ago rather than a recent fundamental jump in prices.
The Bank has said it expects inflation to ease late this year, providing some relief to households squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages.
and Bloomberg:
U.K. gilts advanced, pushing the yield on two-year securities to the lowest in almost two months, amid speculation slowing inflation will leave room for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy.
and Bank of America bond analyst:
“U.K. policy makers have suggested that the recent rise in yields that was influenced by the Fed’s policy was probably unwarranted, and the inflation data today rubber stamped that.”
So nothing to scream about, tim. All in the flow of news confirming a firming up of the economic recovery.
It does seem that using a different inflation marker than CPI or RPI can make the GDP figure significantly better.
If only these things mattered other than as virility symbols.
http://twitpic.com/d31dri
Only that one was not a figment of your imagination.
foxinsox
I thought UK GDP was calculated using chained volume measurements so, in theory, price inflation is not an issue and the GDP deflator value can be calculated directly. The statistical snake oil does show however, why getting excited over 0.1% of a difference in GDP is a fools game.
I noted the Treasury published a document on 'deflators' today. I have downloaded it but not yet had the courage to look at it!
Here are a couple of links for when you are feeling in a masochist mood:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp-march-2013
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-to-use-the-gdp-deflator-series-practical-examples
However, I think the report has basically taken away one of Labour's most potent electoral weapons, that is to say Ed can't go to the electorate and say "the NHS is safe in our hands, vote Labour to keep it away from evil Tories". That line will no longer hold water and it will be largely dismissed by floating voters who will remember the Mail front page because it has personal stories on there, not just random statistics.
It's important because now the NHS is neutral to the Tories where previously it was highly negative. Now both parties will be seen as bad as each other, giving more importance to policy areas in which the Tories have a natural lead (immigration, economy). With Lynton Crosby around I can see them sticking to that message throughout the campaign, it will be hard on immigration and hard on Labour's piss poor economic record with the odd mention of Europe to keep the UKIPpers happy. I don't even think welfare will make a big splash during the election campaign as there is the possibility of going too hard and then seeing personal stories crop up all over the place that will be tough for the Tories to deal with. Immigration is easy, they don't have a vote and people tend not to like them, welfare is tougher for sure and the Tories are already bulletproof on the subject, it would make sense to leave well alone and watch as Labour tie themselves in knots trying to explain why they support the benefits cap, but think it's a bad policy.
If we look around the world right now, it is hard to see anywhere improving as much as the UK:
China growth continues to slow
The US recovery seems to be losing some steam
Germany and France are seeing some negative revision right now
Spain and Ireland are, otoh, improving off very low levels
But there won't be an election tomorrow. There will be on in two years time. And the LibDems are likely to get *some* benefit from the improving economic fundamentals, and a little bit of 'swingback'.
So, my wildly unscientific guess would be that UKIP will probably poll 8-10% in the General, and will (sadly) just fall short of capturing a seat or two. While the LibDems will poll 14-15%, and will retain the bulk of their seats. Quite possibly including everybody's second favourite ginger: Danny Alexander.
Just when the Spanish economy looked to be turning he is caught with his hands in the till.
Still, Germany are fighting hard to keep the show on the road. Deutsche Bank stating the Spanish Banks are now safe.
Also have been fiddling around with the EBA stats on banker pay. Will post in the next couple of days. Absolutely amazing figures for the UK share of EU spoils!
Do you know at what point the deflator became decoupled from RPI? And is there a deflator for inversely hedonic goods. For example Spandau Ballets later works are not up to par with their earlier ones, so the inverse of steadily improving goods.
One could make the case that there are many inversely hedonic goods.