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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

Given that it is barely three months since Corbyn was re-elected with a huge majority it is hard to see what the party can do. They are stuck with a leader who appears to repel voters and with him in place there appears no obvious way back.

Read the full story here

SquareRoot

First

Sandpit

Second like everyone else!

SouthamObserver

The sad thing is that Labour's leadership really does not care. And if they don't, why should anyone else?

tpfkar

Fourth like Labour...Oppan Sleaford style

SquareRoot

and merry Xmas Mrs May. Labour's figures are falling towards those that I feel they really are at . on or about 20 and it'll be about right.

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

The sad thing is that Labour's leadership really does not care. And if they don't, why should anyone else?

Suppose that they did, but what would they Do?

TheScreamingEagles

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

logical_song

New thread curse:
justin124 said:

I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

RobD

Just rejoice at that news

Scott_P

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

MarkSenior

As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .

SimonStClare

Half of Labour’s 2015 vote have abandoned the party - pah, tis a mere flesh wound…!

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.

Sandpit

Now Guido has managed to get a quote from the head of Labour Friends of Israel condemning Corbyn for associating with Anti-Semites again.

"We find it strange that Jeremy Corbyn would think it’s appropriate to attend an event organised by a group who say the party he leads is “indebted to Jewish financiers with Zionist leanings”. We hope in future Jeremy will think more carefully about the organisations he associates himself with."

http://order-order.com/2016/12/09/251413/

AlastairMeeks

I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

TheWhiteRabbit

MarkSenior said:

As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .

Which weighting actually causes this?

JohnLilburne

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Didn't they get worse under Brown?

Scott_P

RobD said:

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

and a French flag...

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.

TheWhiteRabbit

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

are they actually weighting on remain/leave or is the effect of weighting by someone else.

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

I can assure you my parents will both be voting Conservative

AlastairMeeks

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

are they actually weighting on remain/leave or is the effect of weighting by someone else.

Don't know. Either way, it's a process that needs to be properly understood.

MarkSenior

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MarkSenior said:

As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .

Which weighting actually causes this?

Good question , usually it is the weighting for 2015 GE voting but this poll that is only part of it .

Stark_Dawning

logical_song said:

New thread curse:
justin124 said:

I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776

UKIP seem to be assuming that 100% of Leavers crave their own brand of immediate, ultra-Hard Brexit. I suspect the reality is far more nuanced: most will be prepared to let the technocrats to their work and be reconciled to the years of negotiations and bureaucratic drudgery ahead. It's in the British character to be wary of quick fixes prescribed by zealots.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.

Many different shades of those colours

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Not quite: 1983, but early Kinnock.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/807174118449745921

DanSmith

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.

The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?

Black_Rook

Been having my own trawl through the data. As with all recent polls, the Tory lead appears to be based, essentially, on a big advantage amongst the over 40s, and Labour only scores decisively better amongst the under 25s. Given that the mean age of the population has now passed 40 and that children have not yet been granted suffrage, this does of course account for the Tories' enormous lead.

Also in the data:

* The Tories outpoll Labour 61:12 amongst pensioners, i.e. the people most likely to vote. Ukip scores 15% and is therefore in second place with this group.
* The Tories also outpoll Labour 44:17 in the 50-64 group, amongst which the LDs and other parties do a lot better. Ukip is on 16% with this cohort.
* May leads Corbyn 49:16 on the best PM question amongst all voters. For pensioners the ratio is 72:6.
* The Tories lead Labour on all policy issues about which questions were asked except health and housing.
* There's still little sign of Brexit regret: 44% think Britain right to leave, 42% wrong, 14% DK.
* Excluding the don't knows, the percentage of 2015 supporters still backing the parties is as follows: Con 92%, Ukip 71%, LD 69%, Lab 69%. Ukip defectors have gone almost entirely Tory; LD defectors pretty evenly split between Con & Lab; and Labour has been shipping votes to everybody else.

david_herdson

SimonStClare said:

Half of Labour’s 2015 vote have abandoned the party - pah, tis a mere flesh wound…!

Near enough the same as for the Lib Dems and UKIP.

philiph

I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?

david_herdson

JohnLilburne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Didn't they get worse under Brown?

Not in opposition!

But yes, the absolute worst score Labour has ever recorded in a poll is 18% under Brown in May 2009 during the expenses scandal. The lowest during the early 1980s was 23%.

rogerh

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

david_herdson

philiph said:

I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?

Yes - you can see them across the bottom of the first table Mike's quoted. Overall, 22% DK plus a further 12% Would Not Vote.

Recidivist

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.

I need details. Pantone references please.

dr_spyn

Looks as if Labour finished bottom of a poll in West Maldon.

Jason

DanSmith said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.

The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?

Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

FF43

To be fair there is a high level of churn (with major sampling caveats) for the 2015 Lib Dem and UKIP votes, as well as for Labour. Only the Conservatives seem to be more settled.

dr_spyn

Maldon – Maldon West

Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

Independent gain from Conservatives.

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.

TheWhiteRabbit

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

williamglenn

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.

Many different shades of those colours

A taupe Brexit might do more for the resale value? Do it up; sell it on.

IanB2

Stark_Dawning said:

logical_song said:

New thread curse:
justin124 said:

I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776

UKIP seem to be assuming that 100% of Leavers crave their own brand of immediate, ultra-Hard Brexit. I suspect the reality is far more nuanced: most will be prepared to let the technocrats to their work and be reconciled to the years of negotiations and bureaucratic drudgery ahead. It's in the British character to be wary of quick fixes prescribed by zealots.

Post-Brexit there is nothing left for them other than the support base of far-right nationalism, which without the traumatic history of much of the continent here was always narrow (and always focused on safe Labour areas, where UKIP now claims to be heading). Without the handle of euroscepticism to hang onto that will always be a dead end; even if the far right is marching in Europe, I cannot see it overcoming the obstacles it will always have here in the Uk.

If - as he is said to intend - Banks launches some sort of online movement (which looks a bit like a right-wing mirror of the centre-left More United) for the disaffected early in 2017, surely that will kill UKIP completely, especially if Farage is publicly part of it?

TheScreamingEagles

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

Black_Rook

Jason said:

I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn.

I don't know how true this actually is, but some say that most voters gain initial impressions of new party leaders quickly, and make up their minds about them early on. After that, settled opinions can be very hard to shift. Apparently helped contributed to downfall of EdM.

If so the Tories are sitting pretty and Labour are very, very screwed. But I think we could've guessed that anyway.

IanB2

Jason said:

DanSmith said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.

The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?

Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

Surely the LibDems should be able to craft a pitch to the London luvvies?

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

Freedom under Hitler?

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

Or a commentary on something they don't like beginning with 'H'?

MarkSenior

dr_spyn said:

Maldon – Maldon West

Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

Independent gain from Conservatives.

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.

To be fair , the BNP are standing under an apparently harmless and more attractive party description .

FF43

philiph said:

I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?

The explanation is the very high level of "Don't Knows" in this survey. The 25% is of those that will certainly vote. 17% of the whole sample. Whereas, by definition, the proportion of those that voted Labour, Tory, Lib Dem etc in 2015 is of those that actually voted.

dr_spyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

RobD

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

Black_Rook

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

rottenborough

Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.

david_herdson

Jason said:

DanSmith said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?

Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.

The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?

Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

Yes. Labour 1955/59. 13.9m in 1951, 12.4m in 1955, and 12.2m in 1959.

That run of losing seats at four successive elections (1950-59) was matched by Labour this last time (2001, 2005, 2010, 2015). To lose seats net at a fifth successive election would, I think, be unprecedented.

MarkSenior

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

MarkSenior

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

RobD

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.

rottenborough

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

Someone in the Liberal operation, I forgot who, said the other day that in the seats where they are likely to actually run any kind of campaign in 2020 their vote share is more like mid to late teens than the national vote of 10 or 11%.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

MarkSenior

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.

Unlike Witney and R Park

dr_spyn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

This is from the nomination paper on the Council website.

Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care.

https://www.maldon.gov.uk/site/scripts/google_results.php?q=election&sortBy=date

RobD

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.

Unlike Witney and R Park

Exceptional circumstances in both cases, I'd argue.

david_herdson

rottenborough said:

Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.

Con will of course gain Wakefield anyway due to the incomparable local leadership.

But seriously, it'd be another straw in the wind as to how politics is changing. Thatcher never managed to win the seat, coming within a few hundred in 1983, and it remained (and remains) consistently Labour since 1935.

williamglenn

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

The Militant Elvis party seems to have many names they use on the ballot papers.

david_herdson

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

By-elections, shmy-elections.

Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.

dr_spyn

Essex live - BNP take control of a parish council, fighting under another name.

http://www.essexlive.news/british-national-party-take-control-of-heybridge-parish-council-after-by-election-win/story-29829328-detail/story.html

rottenborough

Another classic interview with that scourge of the elite who run Britain, Farage:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/nigel-farage-exclusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/

Interview takes places in one of the most expensive restaurants in London and descends over fine clarets into a discussion about how he is pissed off that he hasn't got the kind of money all his friends have, as in £60 million or more. Some even have 300 million.

How on earth did this city trader convince millions of working people that he is their representative against the establishment?

Oh, and he wants to bring peace to the middle east.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

MarkSenior

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .

Morris_Dancer

F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

Floater

david_herdson said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

By-elections, shmy-elections.

Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.

I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.

As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?

rottenborough

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.

Con will of course gain Wakefield anyway due to the incomparable local leadership.

But seriously, it'd be another straw in the wind as to how politics is changing. Thatcher never managed to win the seat, coming within a few hundred in 1983, and it remained (and remains) consistently Labour since 1935.

Return to your constituency and prepare for government!

Morris_Dancer

F1: they put the market back up.

Also, Bottas down to 9 for the title. I backed him at 15 (each way, of course). And Wehrlein at 3 for the seat. So if either of those happens, I should be ok.

Edited extra bit: er, 26 each way for Bottas, apparently. Not sure if that's a typo or I just remembered incorrectly.

Stark_Dawning

rottenborough said:

Another classic interview with that scourge of the elite who run Britain, Farage:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/nigel-farage-exclusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/

Interview takes places in one of the most expensive restaurants in London and descends over fine clarets into a discussion about how he is pissed off that he hasn't got the kind of money all his friends have, as in £60 million or more. Some even have 300 million.

How on earth did this city trader convince millions of working people that he is their representative against the establishment?

Oh, and he wants to bring peace to the middle east.

Sickening greed. But it explains his desperation to get in with Trump and the Fox News circuit - once the EU gravy train is ended, how will he continue funding the lifestyle he obviously feels he so richly deserves?

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?

LOL! There's a name I haven't heard for some time. Test driver supreme!

felix

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Oh indeed - the over 50s are notoriously flaky in their loyalties...oh wait!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/807252936325824513

Floater

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.

GIN1138

Go Jezza!!!!!!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, I feel sorry for Badoer. Kept out of a seat for years due to a stupid regulation, then so poor he became the reason that daft regulation was axed.

Mr. Eagles, you have the subtlety and nuance of a drunk Pastor Maldonado.

Floater

MarkSenior said:

dr_spyn said:

Maldon – Maldon West

Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

Independent gain from Conservatives.

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.

To be fair , the BNP are standing under an apparently harmless and more attractive party description .

Or - Labour are voter repellant - you decide.

MarkSenior

Floater said:

david_herdson said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

By-elections, shmy-elections.

Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.

I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.

As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community

And how did voting Conservative in Colchester keep out Labour ?

felix

Floater said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.

No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.

IanB2

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .

Much more comment than replacing the party name entirely, which is unlikely to make sense for a party with an established base (although I guess mentally worth adding to the list of last ditch options for Labour?)

Standing as a council candidate as LibDem Focus Team rather than just LibDem undoubtedly carries an advantage. Using "Caroline Pidgeon's Liberal Democrats" as the party's official description in this year's London elections was however a bright idea from someone at HQ that didn't do any good.

Morris_Dancer

F1: anyway, most of those odds have shortened quite a bit. One I put a few pounds on which is still long (and it should be, but not this long) is Vandoorne for the title, each way at 67. Odds haven't budged.

If Alonso's 13 for the title, and he is, then his car must be good enough. And if it is, 12/1 for the title and 66/1 for his team mate (just over 12/1 to be top three) is too long. I think. Bit of a guess but the disparity is substantial.

TheScreamingEagles

21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .

Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?

LOL! There's a name I haven't heard for some time. Test driver supreme!

The man's a world record holder

As of September 2011, Badoer holds the record for the most Grand Prix starts – 50 – and the most race laps completed – 2364 – without scoring a point

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luca_Badoer

IanB2

For reference, here is the full list of names currently registered by the BNP:

British Jobs for British Workers
British National Party Local People First
Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
People like you - Voting BNP
Because we can make Britain Better
With Adam Walker
Because we can make Scotland Better
Because we can make Wales better
British National Party - Plaid Genedlaethol Brydeinig
Because the English have rights too
At the heart of our community

Edit/ notice that, although they claim to be able to make Wales and Scotland better, only the English have rights.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, I feel sorry for Badoer. Kept out of a seat for years due to a stupid regulation, then so poor he became the reason that daft regulation was axed.

Mr. Eagles, you have the subtlety and nuance of a drunk Pastor Maldonado.

Ah Mr Dancer, I don't think I've heard that story. What regulation?

And yes, joking aside, I feel a little sorry for him as well.

MarkSenior

felix said:

Floater said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.

No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.

With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .

TheScreamingEagles

TheScreamingEagles said:

21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/21st-century-fox-agrees-to-buy-sky?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

MarkSenior

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .

Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.

Yes the extra votes appeared in that election compared to the previous one and as quickly disappeared in the next one .

JonathanD

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/21st-century-fox-agrees-to-buy-sky?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Uncle Vince isn't around this time to block it either (or use his nuclear weapon).

Black_Rook

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/807252936325824513

Questionable as to whether or not this tells us anything useful. Twitter users are unlikely to constitute a representative sample of the general population, after all.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, it used to be that reserve drivers were effectively banned from testing. So Badoer had no experience of the car, or any for years (of F1), when he jumped into the Ferrari.

felix

MarkSenior said:

felix said:

Floater said:

MarkSenior said:

Black_Rook said:

rogerh said:

Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.

The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .

Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.

No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.

With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .

Lol - I see there is no apology ... and no denial.

IanB2

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Maldon West (Maldon) result:
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

FUH = BNP

FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.

It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .

Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.

A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .

Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.

Yes the extra votes appeared in that election compared to the previous one and as quickly disappeared in the next one .

This is clearly closely allied to the statistic that consistently somewhere about 7% of voters say they didn't make up they mind until they were actually in the polling station looking at the ballot paper.