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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election
Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.)
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Foot's patriotism was certainly questioned. That's what the donkey jacket at the Cenotaph was all about.
Are there markets for the other parties?
Given that a rout seems more likely than a recovery, if Corbyn stays in place, then the 10/1 and 5/2 are the value in this market.
FPT: Mr. Mark, I recommend Kingdom Asunder, by Thaddeus White.
[I'm a shade off-colour, but I think that's what you were getting at. If you're after classical recommendations just let me know and I'll have a furkle around for them].
Value, quite possibly. But I still think it's unlikely, even if Corbyn's there.
Mrs May's thinking is that she doesn't want to be distracted from Brexit, with the small majority and boundary changes coming, but against that she must know she's looking at a 1983-style result if she goes to the country in the spring.
The big elephant in the womb is whether The Libdems can overtake Labour in time to change the question in voters minds. If crossover was in 2018 then voters might have enough time to adjust to the new reality.
a) At the outbreak of the Second World War, Foot volunteered for military service, but was rejected because of his chronic asthma.
b)actually he wore a type of duffel coat)[ at the wreath-laying ceremony at the Cenotaph on Remembrance Day in November 1981, for which he was likened to an "out-of-work navvy" by a fellow Labour MP.[ Foot did not make it generally known that the Queen Mother had described it as a "sensible coat for a day like this", which could be considered a slight or a compliment depending on whether irony was intended.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7361078/Michael-Foot-and-the-donkey-jacket-that-wasnt.html
A week or so ago I mentioned a ship that for into some trouble off Dover. They were very, very lucky:
http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/207355/maib-kicks-off-investigation-of-saga-sky-collision/
On another thread it was commented on that the electricity interconnector to France was not running at full capacity. That might be the case for some time: it appears that whilst it was trying to anchor itself, the ship damaged four of the eight cables forming the link.
Ooopps.
Worse, it looks as though it might cause some supply problems in France as they were expecting to import power this winter as some of their nukes are down.
Decrepit JohnL said
' Sorry, yes they are now but it used to be £5,000 to the PM's £10,000 (and backbenchers weren't paid at all). I should have been clearer.'
Backbenchers have been paid since before World War1.
Boris could be DCMS.
The 'existential threat' to Labour's heartlands that some saw in UKIP has, IMO, now gone away. Therefore my money would be on 20-25% in terms of vote but with 100+ seats.
The more interesting question is what impact Banks might make if/when he launches a Cinque-Stelle style 'people's movement' in a few months' time...?
If there were to be an early election I would still expect Labour to end up on circa 200 seats.That is certainly what most of the polls have been indicating.
Other than an article in the Sunday Mail where have rumours of an early election come from?
Iran signs deal $16 billion for 80 aircraft with Boeing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38280724
It'll be interesting to see how Trump reacts to this.
I can see a result at the next election something like Tory 33% Labour 26% UKIP 18% LD 12%
Catching up on the the previous thread, I see not a single Brexiteer was able to answer the question posed this morning. A couple tried and spectacularly missed the point, so I'll give them another go.
In our "representative democracy", who represents those not eligible to vote?
Nobody tried to argue that with a Tory majority, those who voted Labour are not represented in Parliament, but people seem quite happy to claim that if MPs try and represent those who voted to remain they are TRAITORS!
Who represents children in Parliament? Who represents prisoners?
Those eligible to vote decide the composition of Parliament, and the result of a referendum.
A Parliament has 650 (perhaps 600, soon) MPs, but a referendum has only two possible outcomes. One has a spectrum of opinions, the other a binary result.
He's also physically transforming at a rapid pace. I doubt he could hack the pace of a front-line politics job even if he wanted to do it.
Who speaks for the glint in the milkman's eye? Who represents the recently deceased?
Asking questions doesn't make a point unless there's a point to be made. We had a referendum on whether to leave or not, and voted to leave. So we're leaving. That's how democracy works.
Are they represented, in our "representative democracy" or not?
If so, by whom?
Off topic: nice to see @iSam here again. Welcome back!
If another 2010 winter arrives, it might be very hard to maintain supply without buggering up manufacturing industry, i.e. by asking factories to switch things off for several hours. A simpler alternative would be to order domestic consumers to turn up their gas central heating and turn off their electric fan heaters - the gas network has less problem meeting very high peak demands on cold days. But this is deemed to be 'interference in individual lifestyles'.
In terms of the referendum on a question with only two responses and no room for compromise (it is either Remain or Leave) then the MP would be wise to take into account the views of the majority of their constituents or risk being voted out. But again they are their as representatives not delegates so can, if they so desire, take that chance and vote against the majority. As they have indicated they would do on matters such as the Death Penalty.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Corbyn has already come out supporting an early election. He and his acolytes - Diane "shudder" Abbot, John McMao, Emily Sneerberry etc - are in safe metropolitan seats immune to the nuking that will happen in the provinces. It'll be the PLP on the receiving end of UKIP warheads, and the pillocks who think its a Koresh-style leadership cult will be cheering it on as "what they deserve" for being "Blairite Tories".
As CLP Secretary I had a new (old) member on the phone earlier. Are we pro or anti Jeremy? As if that's the issue. We're pro the leader whomever it is. But JC (Peace be Upon Him) is the only issue they want to talk about. A good nuking of the PLP will suit them fine. Only then can we rebuild the party in His image and abolish capitalism...
"Are they represented, in our "representative democracy" or not?"
Do you mean, as Mr Divvie implied earlier, foetuses? I suppose you're complaining about there being no strong anti-abortion party?
Or is it the under ten's who have the longest life-span remaining in the future world? No, there isn't a children's party as such.
There is a party representing the resentful Remainers - that's the Liberals.
As soon as you reach that level of enlightenment it makes ignoring the drivel he posts much easier.
That referendum that because of my age I only just missed the opportunity to vote and had to accept whatever outcome there was. If these people represented my interests at that time then these same sort of people do so equally now as well as for all others than for one reason or another do not or could not vote this time.
No doubt this will now be argued as joining will be said to be totally different to leaving and the normal arguments that we have heard over and over again will resume on PB .......
Also perhaps a wish list from yourself as I would like to buy you a ebook. I've enjoyed all of your written works and I feel them massively underpriced. Perhaps an additional token of appreciation would be a way for me/us to make up the perceived difference.
Of course the man who outlined this principle found himself turfed out on his ear by the electorate of Bristol when he put it into practice but again that does not mean the principle is wrong.
The problem for me nowadays is that with the all pervasive party system the MPs are more often than not representing their party or themselves as they see best rather than their electorate.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/classical-history-for-beginners.html
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/classical-history-for-intermediates.html
Mr. Moses, quite.
As for people who can't vote, while they are represented, they are not legally entitled to have a say in the matter. For people who just don't vote, that's their own fault.
It is indeed a shame that Parliamentary whipping now occurs for the vast majority of votes.
That's odd, because I have 100% certainty that night turns into morning at 0330.
LibDems far too high - Labour will be circa 30% Of course if Theresa May can change her mind about an early election Corbyn is entitled to do likewise!
I couldn't see it myself. Cheers. Very helpful.
And, if MP's decide that an issue must be decided by the voters as a whole, in a referendum, they are morally obliged to abide by the outcome.
The 5/2 on 20-25% looks like value, but I'll be putting a few quid on <20% too, to cover the possibility of a split or other meltdown.
That abuse you refer to of course is in comparison to the unadulterated furrious vitriol and tirade of abuse poured out consistently for the last 6 months by Tyson, Roger, Meeks and even yourself on occasions against anyone who dares to take any opposing democratic view to theirs.
Glass houses my friend....glass houses.
Is there a majority in parliament for leaving the single market? Probably not. Are they mandated by the referendum to do it anyway? Absolutely not. Do you understand why anyone could support it?
If there is a big issue of the day, and a constituent knows that his MP holds a different POV, what are his options? He can either try to change his MP's mind, or contact another local political animal. Straightforward so far?
But we all know that this isn't the point. Some people are so wedded to the supremacy of the idea of a federal Europe that they can't see any other position. Clean Brexit is an anathema to this (tiny) sub-set of the population.
I've no interest in trying to change these minds. There is one point which I forlornly hope they will accept. Had there not been the 'black swan' event of Jo Cox's political assassination a week before polling day, Leave would have won by 12% not 4% (authority: Anthony Wells).
A 12% win would have led to a much more positive discussion now.
Some much more considered responses this time round. Thank you Richard
On the vexed question of afternoon/evening, Dr Sheldon Cooper has the answer.
It's prevening