Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dave might not have been so upbeat at PMQs if this Ipsos-MO

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dave might not have been so upbeat at PMQs if this Ipsos-MORI poll had come out two hours earlier

Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll with LAB lead up 7 to 11% pic.twitter.com/3NYnE3em7m

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    So do we know yet if PP counted 3 or more interruptions at PMQs?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited July 2013
    Yeah but Dave leads Ed

    David Cameron’s net satisfaction rating of -16 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is an improvement of 8 points since last month, and his highest this year. 38% are satisfied with the Prime Minister, 54% are dissatisfied. Satisfaction with David Cameron among Conservative supporters has also improved with 78% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied.


    30% are satisfied with Mr Miliband’s performance as Labour leader compared with 56% who are dissatisfied. His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.


    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3196/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-July-2013.aspx
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    I doubt "Dave" is overly concerned by the up and down of individual polls. It's the trend thats important and Labour's trend is down;

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Tim always says it's the leadership ratings which matter most with Mori... what do they show?

    PMQs verdict seems slightly sub-optimal for reds. This from the New Statesman....

    Cameron's rollcall of achievements was an apt summary of why the Tories believe the political tide has turned in their favour. An economic recovery finally appears to be underway and the public has tolerated, rather than revolted against austerity. As Cameron noted, it is now February since Miliband asked a full set of questions about the economy. The fear among Labour MPs was always that their party's poll lead owed more to distaste for the coalition than it did to enthusiasm for them. Now, as growth returns, the danger is that it will crumble.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    But as Mike and tim so wisely say: ICM the gold standard on VI and MORI on Leaders' ratings. And the latter is shocking for Ed:

    David Cameron’s net satisfaction rating of -16 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is an improvement of 8 points since last month, and his highest this year. 38% are satisfied with the Prime Minister, 54% are dissatisfied. Satisfaction with David Cameron among Conservative supporters has also improved with 78% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied.

    30% are satisfied with Mr Miliband’s performance as Labour leader compared with 56% who are dissatisfied. His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.

    So Dave on -16, and Ed -26.

    I so feel for tim - hi, there buddy, I know you're looking in!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @OK TSE smart-@rse.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Events Dear boy , Events..
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    oh dear... thanks TSE

    His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Maybe it'll affect the mood or something, but Mori always seem to be all over the place.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    On topic more evidence for those who think ICM was a rouge poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Rouge = Rogue.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    A rouge poll - are you seeing rEd?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Why would Ed's personal ratings be falling?

    Didn't Tim and OGH say the UNITE debacle would allow Miliband to portray himself as "strong" and "Prime Ministerial?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Maybe it'll affect the mood or something, but Mori always seem to be all over the place.

    Mori's turnout filter is what causes that.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Harriet Harman having a shocker on WATO. When asked about good economic news says "sometimes I think it is worth stepping back from all the figures"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    JohnO said:

    A rouge poll - are you seeing rEd?

    I'm colour blind.

    I thought my choice of footwear made that obvious.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    A fight with the Unions will be good news for Ed

    @MSmithsonPB
    EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership http://pic.twitter.com/GTWuvIV2fn

    Oh, wait...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Stop it Mike that's cruel. Time to dust off my Yvette betting slips?

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB3m
    EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    oh dear... thanks TSE

    His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.

    #SaveEd!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    On topic more evidence for those who think ICM was a rouge poll.

    ICM wasn't a "rogue" as such. It was just at the extreme end of the trend.

    If the trend of Labour's slow and gradual downwards slide continues we'll see more "rogues" like ICM coming in.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've put up a couple more charts in the header
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    MORI's economic index (things getting better vs getting worse) is now +5. Shape of voting things to come? Keep an eye on that one as the election approaches.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:

    A fight with the Unions will be good news for Ed

    @MSmithsonPB
    EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership http://pic.twitter.com/GTWuvIV2fn

    Oh, wait...

    How many hours did Tim spend on here telling us that "PB Tories" were missing the big picture over the UNITE fiasco, which was that Ed would turn it to his advantage?

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    I've put up a couple more charts in the header

    Have you banned all the reds from here on a thread with a red lead of 11%....?

    Tumbleweed.....

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited July 2013

    Maybe it'll affect the mood or something, but Mori always seem to be all over the place.

    Mori's turnout filter is what causes that.

    Also IIRC they don't have the past-vote-weighting or party-ID-weighting clevers that some pollsters have, which probably serve to dampen out the sampling error a bit, at the cost of potentially throwing the baby out with the bathwater if changes in opinion cause people to mis-remember things.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    IIRC MORI only reports *certain to vote* so that tends to make their VI polls a bit bouncier than others.

    In any event - Leader Ratings are terrible for EdM - Jan 2012 was Vetogasm territory, wasn't it? And when the Tories were first advocating the Welfare Cap.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FPT

    @Scott_P said:

    "The best was Kate Green, who knew what was going to happen, did it anyway, and grimaced through the inevitable response.

    @oflynnexpress: Lab is in retreat on welfare, immigration, tax & spend, union links + leader looking his weakest ever. Doesn't look like winning prospectus."

    ...............................................................


    Absolutely Scott_P

    And this is mid-term. As the economy improves is it likely that Labour will rebound ? Unlikely in my view. To my mind the question becomes how bad will it become for Labour.

    Does Ed enjoy the leadership skills to limit the damage - Is he William Hague of 2001 or Michael Foot from 1983 ?

    The clock it is a ticking ....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    I've put up a couple more charts in the header

    Ed can at least console himself that he's got some way to go before he reaches "The Quiet Mans" low point. :^O

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2013
    Quite a difference from ICM - the Mori net satisfaction figures are key, though and that doesn't look good for EdM. His recovery has clearly stalled.

    Off topic....

    Peter Hunt ‏@BBCPeterHunt 11m
    Queen asked if she wants baby to be a boy or a girl says"Idon't really mind.I hope it arrives soon because I'm going on holiday #RoyalBaby
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    "Perhaps details are less relevant in the middle of a bloody tussle for the moral high ground. Labour is horrified that the Conservatives think they can take the moral high ground, and the party is even more horrified that what the Tories are saying appears to have resonance. Burnham and colleagues still seem preoccupied with repeating the ‘we love our NHS’ line and praising the producers, while Hunt is a man on a mission to talk about patients. Neither party will allow a score draw: the NHS is too electorally important."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/the-bloody-tussle-for-the-moral-high-ground/
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    I doubt "Dave" is overly concerned by the up and down of individual polls. It's the trend thats important and Labour's trend is down;

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    The Conservatives' trend is also down.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Putting this through the Lebo & Norpoth model forecasts for 2015....

    Con vote lead 6.9%
    Con seat lead 51 seats
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    I've put up a couple more charts in the header

    Ed can at least console himself that he's got some way to go before he reaches "The Quiet Mans" low point. :^O

    Of course the comparison with IDS is the most cruel.

    Labour tend not to be good regicides but will the knives start twitching in their hilts if this time next year ICM show Labour on the ropes. What might save Ed at that time is the illusion of the Euro-elections - fools gold in the electoral cycle if there was ever any !!

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    At least Labour List is happy about the Mori poll - oh... there's a catch.

    I’m loathe to say it – because it feels like we end up here every year – but Miliband will need to give another impressive conference speech to give himself a boost with the public. But more than that, he needs to be more visible and have more to say (in terms of policies) if he’s going to turn this around.

    Above all though, he needs to keep his head, when the rest of the party might be losing theirs.

    http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labours-lead-is-up-to-11-with-ipsos-mori-the-polls-are-all-over-the-place-but-milibands-personal-ratings-are-a-worry/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    At least Labour List is happy about the Mori poll - oh... there's a catch.

    I’m loathe to say it – because it feels like we end up here every year – but Miliband will need to give another impressive conference speech to give himself a boost with the public. But more than that, he needs to be more visible and have more to say (in terms of policies) if he’s going to turn this around.

    Above all though, he needs to keep his head, when the rest of the party might be losing theirs.

    http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labours-lead-is-up-to-11-with-ipsos-mori-the-polls-are-all-over-the-place-but-milibands-personal-ratings-are-a-worry/

    @DAaronovitch
    @LabourList: Labour’s lead is up… but Miliband’s personal ratings are a http://labli.st/15lFcUA ” > A masterpiece in not saying the thing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    JackW said:

    FPT

    @Scott_P said:

    "The best was Kate Green, who knew what was going to happen, did it anyway, and grimaced through the inevitable response.

    @oflynnexpress: Lab is in retreat on welfare, immigration, tax & spend, union links + leader looking his weakest ever. Doesn't look like winning prospectus."

    ...............................................................


    Absolutely Scott_P

    And this is mid-term. As the economy improves is it likely that Labour will rebound ? Unlikely in my view. To my mind the question becomes how bad will it become for Labour.

    Does Ed enjoy the leadership skills to limit the damage - Is he William Hague of 2001 or Michael Foot from 1983 ?

    The clock it is a ticking ....

    so Mr W you're a 2010 LD and you've been sulking for 3 years. But as things pick up it looks less likely Ed will win and more likely you'll have a HP. And then that Clegg bloke shows you how the LDs have had more of an impact on the Tories than Ed. Who do you vote for ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pong said:

    Quite a difference from ICM - the Mori net satisfaction figures are key, though and that doesn't look good for EdM. His recovery has clearly stalled.

    Off topic....

    Peter Hunt ‏@BBCPeterHunt 11m
    Queen asked if she wants baby to be a boy or a girl says"Idon't really mind.I hope it arrives soon because I'm going on holiday #RoyalBaby

    She really is such a nice lady. That's a reply than any great-granny could have give :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Think Conservative supporters might be getting a touch excited. Seen this before after the EU speech and the veto. Didn't last.

    Clearly Ed is having a shit 2013,after a good 2012. He has serious questions to answer.

    Clegg is the most consistent of the bunch. Not that it does him any good.

    IMO the acid test is whether the Tories are any closer to winning the seats like Eastleigh they need to win a majority? Can't see it yet. Personally still expecting limited Labour gains making the post 2015 aftermath about as messy as possible.




  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    Putting this through the Lebo & Norpoth model forecasts for 2015....

    Con vote lead 6.9%
    Con seat lead 51 seats

    "Con lead" - over Labour or majority?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Ouch: US housing numbers very weak -
    From the FT: "Housing starts declined 9.9 per cent in June to an annual rate of 836,000 units, sharply below expectations, according to new data from the Census Bureau.

    Economists had forecast a 5.0 per cent improvement to 960,000 starts."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @JohnO said :

    "As tim's pb carer ...."

    .....................................................

    Dear God the self sacrifice you must endure JohnO. We are in awe man, awe !!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Putting this through the Lebo & Norpoth model forecasts for 2015....

    Con vote lead 6.9%
    Con seat lead 51 seats

    "Con lead" - over Labour or majority?
    lead, still a hung parliament. Virtual rerun of 2010.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Jonathan said:

    Think Conservative supporters might be getting a touch excited. Seen this before after the EU speech and the veto. Didn't last.

    Clearly Ed is having a shit 2013,after a good 2012. He has serious questions to answer.

    Clegg is the most consistent of the bunch. Not that it does him any good.

    IMO the acid test is whether the Tories are any closer to winning the seats like Eastleigh they need to win a majority? Can't see it yet. Personally still expecting limited Labour gains making the post 2015 aftermath about as messy as possible.





    Clegg is the most consistent of the bunch. Not that it does him any good.

    I can see a lot of schmoozing for Nick ahead of the GE, and all those threats that we'd never deal with Clegg looking a bit unwise. It won't be the Cleggasm, more of a we can't do without you.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2013
    2001 is a good precedent for a no change result.

    A no-change election would be about the messiest possible outcome. Difficult questions would be asked of all party leaders.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2013
    Typical fop celebration of Lynton. Even Boris realised that the flaw in his plan was not to let his opponents think they were winning and look where that got him. Pathetic from those on exeat from Eton.

    PB Tories miss the fact that the big story here is Ed Ball's quietude playing the long game. His silence stopped the Fops in their tracks. Just like in Headingley. But NHS statistical illiterates never learn. Remind me what is 50% of 100 again?

    And I'll bet you £50 that Jeremy Chum goes to Fopshire on his holidays.

    (note: apologies but I feel that there's a certain je ne sais quoi missing from PB at the mo')
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    JackW said:

    @JohnO said :

    "As tim's pb carer ...."

    .....................................................

    Dear God the self sacrifice you must endure JohnO. We are in awe man, awe !!

    I see it as my modest understated contribution to the Big Society.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    FPT

    @Scott_P said:

    "The best was Kate Green, who knew what was going to happen, did it anyway, and grimaced through the inevitable response.

    @oflynnexpress: Lab is in retreat on welfare, immigration, tax & spend, union links + leader looking his weakest ever. Doesn't look like winning prospectus."

    ...............................................................


    Absolutely Scott_P

    And this is mid-term. As the economy improves is it likely that Labour will rebound ? Unlikely in my view. To my mind the question becomes how bad will it become for Labour.

    Does Ed enjoy the leadership skills to limit the damage - Is he William Hague of 2001 or Michael Foot from 1983 ?

    The clock it is a ticking ....

    so Mr W you're a 2010 LD and you've been sulking for 3 years. But as things pick up it looks less likely Ed will win and more likely you'll have a HP. And then that Clegg bloke shows you how the LDs have had more of an impact on the Tories than Ed. Who do you vote for ?
    Ah my dear Alanbrooke.

    Before the 2010 GE I expected and hoped for a Con/LibDem coalition and I voted for the best placed of the two - Conservative as it happened.

    In 2015 I would encourage Coalitionistas to do the same. Vote for the best placed candidate. Ed is not PM material and their present guise as "Not The Coalition" requires of them a further period in opposition to envolve into a viable Social Democrat alternative.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    JohnO said:

    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)

    We don't want things looking too good for the Right too soon. As David L and Stuart Dickson have pointed out, it might prompt Scots to sever their ties with the rest of the UK.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    @JohnO said :

    "As tim's pb carer ...."

    .....................................................

    Dear God the self sacrifice you must endure JohnO. We are in awe man, awe !!

    I see it as my modest understated contribution to the Big Society.
    There's "Big" and then there's your gargantuan contribution !!

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Jonathan said:

    2001 is a good precedent for a no change result.

    A no-change election would be about the messiest possible outcome. Difficult questions would be asked of all party leaders.

    A no-change election would be a triumph for Nick Clegg.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    So how long until Ed starts wearing a baseball cap?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    On topic more evidence for those who think ICM was a rouge poll.

    ICM wasn't a "rogue" as such. It was just at the extreme end of the trend.

    If the trend of Labour's slow and gradual downwards slide continues we'll see more "rogues" like ICM coming in.
    All polls are rogues, but some polls are more rogueish than others.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)

    We don't want things looking too good for the Right too soon. As David L and Stuart Dickson have pointed out, it might prompt Scots to sever their ties with the rest of the UK.

    well if they do they do, Scotland knows it will face another government on the right at some point. In any case there's still a +7 or 8 advantage to Labour and the blues need to claw back about 15 points just to stand still.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)

    We don't want things looking too good for the Right too soon. As David L and Stuart Dickson have pointed out, it might prompt Scots to sever their ties with the rest of the UK.

    Indeed, but on the positive side there are no more PMQs for a while so Ed will not be making such a fool of himself. There is the annual "make or break" conference speech though. Free hint for him: stop playing hide the verb. It is a good game but too many people have cottoned on.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    That's not a hand grenade, it's not even a rabbit.

    The last IPCC report was up front about the uncertainties in mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, so they left them out completely from their projections of 21st century sea level rise.

    On sea level rise - without the contribution from ice sheets - the consensus is very clear: sea levels will continue to rise as heat penetrates the deep oceans and mountain glaciers melt.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    I know a few gentlemen of irish decent which have some tarmac left over from a job...reckon they'll do it cheaper.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Plato: Ipsos-MORI does test for certainty to vote - see the double chart in the header. Doesn't make a significant difference - the big parties and UKIP do a bit better, the LibDems and others a bit worse with only the "certain to votes".

    This seems a match for ICM at the other extreme - it seems likely that the real lead is 7-8%, as it has roughly been for what feels like about 2 years now after a brief period when it was 10ish. Leader ratings rise and fall, the economy dips and steadies, scandals come and go, but the basic position hasn't changed much apart from UKIP's rise. If there's an effect of leader rating, it's factored in. We're hearing a lot of Tory whistling in the dark this week, but it's not really any lighter for them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)

    We don't want things looking too good for the Right too soon. As David L and Stuart Dickson have pointed out, it might prompt Scots to sever their ties with the rest of the UK.

    And labour lose a few 10tens of seats of their majority?? Sounds like a win-win to me...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    - "EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership"

    That is not as big a problem for Labour as it was for the Hague-led Tories, because Cameron ain't no Blair.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    Buying up all the land and property is not cheap. Plus money will be spent on transport infrastructure as well. Also, only ~£5bn would come from taxpayers so it's pretty cheap.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    JohnO said:

    @GIN - As tim's pb carer, I should say in his defence that he expected Dave to overtake Ed in this month's leader-ratings (though doubtless he was playing a bit of the expectations game) but I suspect even he will be disheartened by its margin.

    But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)

    We don't want things looking too good for the Right too soon. As David L and Stuart Dickson have pointed out, it might prompt Scots to sever their ties with the rest of the UK.

    And labour lose a few 10tens of seats of their majority?? Sounds like a win-win to me...
    Obviously, people like David L would regard that as very cold comfort, in return for ceasing to be British citizens. And, the rest of the UK would be severely diminished, after losing about 40% of its territory.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    Buying up all the land and property is not cheap. Plus money will be spent on transport infrastructure as well. Also, only ~£5bn would come from taxpayers so it's pretty cheap.
    It was kinda tongue in cheek, I think they want to build a new terminal too! Let's hope they decide what to do soon and get on with it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Plato: Ipsos-MORI does test for certainty to vote - see the double chart in the header. Doesn't make a significant difference - the big parties and UKIP do a bit better, the LibDems and others a bit worse with only the "certain to votes".

    This seems a match for ICM at the other extreme - it seems likely that the real lead is 7-8%, as it has roughly been for what feels like about 2 years now after a brief period when it was 10ish. Leader ratings rise and fall, the economy dips and steadies, scandals come and go, but the basic position hasn't changed much apart from UKIP's rise. If there's an effect of leader rating, it's factored in. We're hearing a lot of Tory whistling in the dark this week, but it's not really any lighter for them.

    subject to events Nick, Labour won't hold that level of poll lead. The economy's on the recovery path and for the moment at least HMG have stopped pointless gimmicks. Where it will all end up who can say but Labour don't have a slam dunk in 2015 imo.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    Buying up all the land and property is not cheap. Plus money will be spent on transport infrastructure as well. Also, only ~£5bn would come from taxpayers so it's pretty cheap.
    People always used to say that a new runway would be built at Heathrow without any public money. What has changed?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    - "EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership"

    That is not as big a problem for Labour as it was for the Hague-led Tories, because Cameron ain't no Blair.

    And across the nation people give thanks for the fact.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    Buying up all the land and property is not cheap. Plus money will be spent on transport infrastructure as well. Also, only ~£5bn would come from taxpayers so it's pretty cheap.
    People always used to say that a new runway would be built at Heathrow without any public money. What has changed?
    we stopped lying to ourselves ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited July 2013

    Plato: Ipsos-MORI does test for certainty to vote - see the double chart in the header. Doesn't make a significant difference - the big parties and UKIP do a bit better, the LibDems and others a bit worse with only the "certain to votes".

    This seems a match for ICM at the other extreme - it seems likely that the real lead is 7-8%, as it has roughly been for what feels like about 2 years now after a brief period when it was 10ish. Leader ratings rise and fall, the economy dips and steadies, scandals come and go, but the basic position hasn't changed much apart from UKIP's rise. If there's an effect of leader rating, it's factored in. We're hearing a lot of Tory whistling in the dark this week, but it's not really any lighter for them.


    Tell that to the right wing organ that is the New Statesman...

    Cameron's rollcall of achievements was an apt summary of why the Tories believe the political tide has turned in their favour. An economic recovery finally appears to be underway and the public has tolerated, rather than revolted against austerity. As Cameron noted, it is now February since Miliband asked a full set of questions about the economy. The fear among Labour MPs was always that their party's poll lead owed more to distaste for the coalition than it did to enthusiasm for them. Now, as growth returns, the danger is that it will crumble.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    People always used to say that a new runway would be built at Heathrow without any public money. What has changed?

    I think the taxpayer money would be used to build out the transport links and make the M25 and M4 higher capacity. The proposal, as I read it, outlines the full cost of building a third runway as well as everything else that is required for it.

    The runway itself won't cost very much and will be paid for privately I'm sure.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re: the proposed new runway at Heathrow. £15bn to slap down a bit of tarmac, you gotta be kidding, surely?!

    Buying up all the land and property is not cheap. Plus money will be spent on transport infrastructure as well. Also, only ~£5bn would come from taxpayers so it's pretty cheap.
    Last time I looked, Heathrow Airport Holdings were a privately owned company.

    Are they planning on splitting the profits with us long suffering taxpayers?

    FGP TopCo Limited should look for cash elsewhere before tapping up the public purse. If the numbers work they'll get it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Some sensational figures coming out of a Monte Carlo sim (10000 runs) of the L&N model...

    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.01% (1 in ten thousand)
    Chance of a Labour vote lead. 0.01% (ditto)
    Chance of a Labour seat lead: 4.2%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%
    Chance of a hung parliament: 72.3%

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RodCrosby said:


    Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%

    Value in 4/1 then?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    "Cameron aint no Blair" One Blair in a lifetime is one too many..
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:


    Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%

    Value in 4/1 then?
    Much better value in laying Lab Maj
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    RodCrosby said:

    Some sensational figures coming out of a Monte Carlo sim (10000 runs) of the L&N model...

    Chance of a Labour majority: 0.01% (1 in ten thousand)
    Chance of a Labour vote lead. 0.01% (ditto)
    Chance of a Labour seat lead: 4.2%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%
    Chance of a hung parliament: 72.3%

    So 4/1 for a tory majority is about right? And a hung Parliament looks for value.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:


    Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%

    Value in 4/1 then?
    A little.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    I've just realised.

    Ed's ratings are closer to Clegg than to Cameron's ratings
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The value is all in NOM. As many of us have been saying for aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaages.

    Meanwhile, it's a shame that tim isn't around to enjoy the Labour 11% lead, even as Ed Miliband falls behind David Cameron in the leadership ratings. Afopalypse now?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Betfair spreads

    Lab maj 2.68-2.76
    NOM 2.36 - 2.52

    Most Seats

    Lab 1.74-1.75
    Con 2.42 -2.46

    Followers of Rod's models should then lay Lab most seats ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    I've just realised.

    Ed's ratings are closer to Clegg than to Cameron's ratings

    When do Nick and Ed cross over ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    On PMQ,s thought Cameron won but miliband did his job of getting his line out on lobbying(benson and hedge-funds)this is what sky and bbc news channels are using,you would think ed had a brilliant PMQ's if you watched them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Plato: Ipsos-MORI does test for certainty to vote - see the double chart in the header. Doesn't make a significant difference - the big parties and UKIP do a bit better, the LibDems and others a bit worse with only the "certain to votes".

    This seems a match for ICM at the other extreme - it seems likely that the real lead is 7-8%, as it has roughly been for what feels like about 2 years now after a brief period when it was 10ish. Leader ratings rise and fall, the economy dips and steadies, scandals come and go, but the basic position hasn't changed much apart from UKIP's rise. If there's an effect of leader rating, it's factored in. We're hearing a lot of Tory whistling in the dark this week, but it's not really any lighter for them.

    Labour's lead has reduced by about 3% on average, since the start of the year. And that's despite the rise of UKIP since then.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    That's not a hand grenade, it's not even a rabbit.

    The last IPCC report was up front about the uncertainties in mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, so they left them out completely from their projections of 21st century sea level rise.

    On sea level rise - without the contribution from ice sheets - the consensus is very clear: sea levels will continue to rise as heat penetrates the deep oceans and mountain glaciers melt.
    Not so. The IPCC report excluded the scaled up accelerated ice loss from their sea level calculations but included the standard predicted rate of loss.

    You can see the graphs and discussion here:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html

    More importantly both the Register article and the original paper from Nature Geoscience make it clear that their argument is not with the IPCC but with the claims of alarmists that there will be accelerated sea level rise. So you are making rather a straw man of this as a means of deflecting from a finding that clearly you find difficult to stomach.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited July 2013
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters in the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/uxIwYObJJH

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/357498793505218560/photo/1


  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB1m
    EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters in the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/uxIwYObJJH

    This shows Ed's bravery and leadership in taking on Unite - the negative reaction is presumably just from those 'union-enrolled' Lab supporters and shows how well he is doing if they have reacted so negatively.

    Great move, short term pain for long term gain.

    (c) Red team

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    @alanbrooke

    I can't see Ed "overtaking" Clegg.

    Be pretty funny if he did though.

    Interestingly YouGov are 3 months ahead of Mori on tracking Ed's leadership fall/Dave's lead.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    On PMQ,s thought Cameron won but miliband did his job of getting his line out on lobbying(benson and hedge-funds)this is what sky and bbc news channels are using,you would think ed had a brilliant PMQ's if you watched them.

    but will it stick ? Royal baby plus, holidays and no politics means it can only be picked up again In September. Seems an odd time to go on the attack with this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Interestingly Mori is close to YouGov in both VI and leader ratings.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    That's not a hand grenade, it's not even a rabbit.

    The last IPCC report was up front about the uncertainties in mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, so they left them out completely from their projections of 21st century sea level rise.

    On sea level rise - without the contribution from ice sheets - the consensus is very clear: sea levels will continue to rise as heat penetrates the deep oceans and mountain glaciers melt.
    Not so. The IPCC report excluded the scaled up accelerated ice loss from their sea level calculations but included the standard predicted rate of loss.

    You can see the graphs and discussion here:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html

    More importantly both the Register article and the original paper from Nature Geoscience make it clear that their argument is not with the IPCC but with the claims of alarmists that there will be accelerated sea level rise. So you are making rather a straw man of this as a means of deflecting from a finding that clearly you find difficult to stomach.
    Ah, okay, so AR4 left out the potential contribution from an acceleration of the mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. My mistake.

    I still think my main point stands - the study in Nature Geoscience is a no change on the existing IPCC consensus, with the [excellent] GRACE satellites not yet providing enough data. No-one would have expected that ten years worth of data would be enough to detect acceleration, so this is not a surprise either.

    I have no difficulty with the finding, I'm just pointing out that it isn't a "hand grenade".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    @alanbrooke

    I can't see Ed "overtaking" Clegg.

    Be pretty funny if he did though.

    Interestingly YouGov are 3 months ahead of Mori on tracking Ed's leadership fall/Dave's lead.

    Mr Eagles I had you down as an honorary cockroach. Alone then ! having endured the barbs of PBers saying Nick is toast, and anyone who says he might yet be kingmaker is an idiot, I can perhaps look forward to his inexorable rise back up the political slopes as those attacking him realise it might not be too clever.

    No more the Labour call of bring me the head of Alfredo Clegg or Tories singing to the tune of Peter Bone. soon it will be the Bone is left alone as they all wander off to do up a rose garden.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The interesting thing is, month on month since 2010, the L&N model has never shown Labour winning the popular vote in 2015.

    For about a year (April 2012 - May 2013) it showed them pulling modestly ahead in seats (never forecasting a majority), but even that now seems to be on the turn.

    Reason? Cameron's PM approval ratings are consistently good, and the L&N model shows this is, historically, by far the best predictor of the next election...

    Opinion polls are just the voters moaning against the incumbent government, as voters invariably do.

    But PM approval shows where they are going to place their 'X' next time...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    @alanbrooke

    I can't see Ed "overtaking" Clegg.

    Be pretty funny if he did though.

    Interestingly YouGov are 3 months ahead of Mori on tracking Ed's leadership fall/Dave's lead.

    Mr Eagles I had you down as an honorary cockroach. Alone then ! having endured the barbs of PBers saying Nick is toast, and anyone who says he might yet be kingmaker is an idiot, I can perhaps look forward to his inexorable rise back up the political slopes as those attacking him realise it might not be too clever.

    No more the Labour call of bring me the head of Alfredo Clegg or Tories singing to the tune of Peter Bone. soon it will be the Bone is left alone as they all wander off to do up a rose garden.

    I'm a fan of Clegg and a cockroacher.

    Now that I'm resident of Sheffield Hallam I am contemplating giving him my vote in 2015

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    The interesting thing is, month on month since 2010, the L&N model has never shown Labour winning the popular vote in 2015.

    For about a year (April 2012 - May 2013) it showed them pulling modestly ahead in seats (never forecasting a majority), but even that now seems to be on the turn.

    Reason? Cameron's PM approval ratings are consistently good, and the L&N model shows this is, historically, by far the best predictor of the next election...

    Opinion polls are just the voters moaning against the incumbent government, as voters invariably do.

    But PM approval shows where they are going to place their 'X' next time...

    I've never heard of L&N before.

    Would be interesting - if Mike was ok - to have a thread on different models (Baxter, L&N, etc) with a view on pros and cons? Perhaps something for the summer?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    RodCrosby said:

    The interesting thing is, month on month since 2010, the L&N model has never shown Labour winning the popular vote in 2015.

    For about a year (April 2012 - May 2013) it showed them pulling modestly ahead in seats (never forecasting a majority), but even that now seems to be on the turn.

    Reason? Cameron's PM approval ratings are consistently good, and the L&N model shows this is, historically, by far the best predictor of the next election...

    Opinion polls are just the voters moaning against the incumbent government, as voters invariably do.

    But PM approval shows where they are going to place their 'X' next time...

    Being a data nerd it would be interesting if you had some plots showing how this is changing with time.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    @alanbrooke

    I can't see Ed "overtaking" Clegg.

    Be pretty funny if he did though.

    Interestingly YouGov are 3 months ahead of Mori on tracking Ed's leadership fall/Dave's lead.

    Mr Eagles I had you down as an honorary cockroach. Alone then ! having endured the barbs of PBers saying Nick is toast, and anyone who says he might yet be kingmaker is an idiot, I can perhaps look forward to his inexorable rise back up the political slopes as those attacking him realise it might not be too clever.

    No more the Labour call of bring me the head of Alfredo Clegg or Tories singing to the tune of Peter Bone. soon it will be the Bone is left alone as they all wander off to do up a rose garden.

    I'm a fan of Clegg and a cockroacher.

    Now that I'm resident of Sheffield Hallam I am contemplating giving him my vote in 2015

    Then Mr Eagles let us look for that magical moment when Ed finally twigs he's Nick's plaything. :-)
This discussion has been closed.