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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election
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"[Emily Thornberry] is now regarded as the favoured pro-Corbyn candidate to take over if the 67-year-old fails to restore the party’s fortunes and faces a renewed challenge to his leadership." (Guardian)
Merry fecking Christmas
The Conservatives OTOH are doing OK with their Remain supporters. For now.
Labour looking in very deep doodoo in Eurosceptic northern middle England.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzzWUcvXUAArzYX.jpg
That's leaving aside the 43% who named immigration, many of whom may well have seen this as overlapping with these considerations.
Good luck trying to persuade those Remainers to reconcile with Leavers any time soon.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/809768145804267521
A directory of everyone on the internet would 72 miles thick....
The thickest bit would be williamglenn
Speaking from the US Embassy in London, where he is speaking political asylum following his conviction in an impeachment trial, interim UKIP leader Nigel Farage said " Lax EU regulation let that door open. We need the Commission to be tougher. Instead we blame complex problems on scapegoats like Grayling instead. I want my country back. "
Only joking.
http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2016/12/13/some-predictions-for-the-future-in-the-climate-game
It seems such a quaint idea now: a hard-copy directory of the best places on t'Internet.
________Betfair __Cricviz implied
England 3.475 2.64
Draw 2.63 2.69
India 2.99 4.02
According to “piracy market data analysts” MUSO, it’s the most illegally downloaded show in the world. Even more illegally downloaded than Game of Thrones.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/dec/16/the-grand-tour-jeremy-clarkson-goes-global-amazon
They didn't say that. And even if they did, engage brain morons at the Guardian....just from the perspective of how many episodes of Game of Thrones and how long it has been out, there is no way 4-5 episodes of TGT would be more than that.
"I note that 36% of Remain supporters think that the main reason Leave voters voted as they did was because they were xenophobic/racist, misinformed, because of stupidity/ignorance or through lack of knowledge:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzzWUcvXUAArzYX.jpg
That's leaving aside the 43% who named immigration, many of whom may well have seen this as overlapping with these considerations."
What are we enlightened Leavers to do about these obdurate, self-reinforcing, prejudiced, misinformed, stupid, bigoted Remainers?
< If nuclear war broke out where's the safest place on Earth?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/brain-flapping/2016/dec/16/if-nuclear-war-broke-out-wheres-the-safest-place-on-earth?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
....to Mars and back.
Every day.
I am loving this Werner Herzog documentary "LO....and behold - Reveries of the Connected World"
"Parties that seek to appeal to the working class on a Europhile platform do so at their peril. The “Labour In” campaign, uncritically and superficially extolling the EU as the best thing since sliced bread, while dismissing out of hand concerns over EU migration, may yet bring a few of the party’s tribal supporters into the Remain camp. The polling evidence though suggests that there will be a price – that of causing more of Labour’s 2015 supporters to question their own tribal allegiance. "
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/guest-slot-polling-analysis-finds-labour-loses-supporters-of-brexit/
On the other the SNP lost the referendum and Scots curiously don't seem to hold the Holyrood Executive responsible for much. But Leave won and by becoming the Leave Party the Tories now own it completely and utterly. So it had better work. And Westminster is where the buck stops here. We blame our governments.
By totally and utterly owning Brexit May is playing a high risk/high reward game with the future of both her party and her country.
Looking at those YouGov figures again, they suggest that the combined traditional and populist Right (i.e. Con + Ukip) commands 54% in the overall national VI figures. Given the situation in Scotland and Wales, this probably means that they are a little way ahead of the combined 55% of the entire vote that they took in England in the last GE. For Leave voters only, the figure is now 77%.
It's possible that the surviving 14% of the Leave vote still held by Labour is safe, because all of the people in that category willing to contemplate defecting to the Tories and Ukip have already gone, but regardless it is a truly abysmal number. The next big question is, even if Labour were to change leadership to a more palatable figure between now and the next election, how many of these voters could be won back by a party so transparently dominated by London left-liberals, their wishes and interests?
I will give most Remain supporters the respect that their self-proclaimed 'knowledge' deserves. Zero. When a Remain supporter is able to write an informed piece on Optimal Currency Areas and explain how the Euro will avoid the fate of other failed OCA (like the Latin Monetary Union) I will respect their 'knowledge'. Such article must take into account that not only was the Euro not an OCA in 1999, but also it has increasingly diverged from an OCA over the subsequent fifteen years. Until then, as an informed, knowledgeable, Leaver, I will hold Remain supporters in the contempt they have earned.
I think the veracity of that view is time limited. In the medium to long term Brexit can only spare us from EU superstate hegemony. No doubt we'll be arguing for years about the financial cost or gain of Brexit. But not for decades. And when the EU does either become fully a superstate or it falls apart we'll be so very glad to looking at it from the outside.
Then a third MP can write to the police asking them to investigate said other MP in regards to them wasting police time investigating Ian Austin case of wasting police time...
"No person shall open, or cause or permit to be opened, any door of a vehicle on a road so as to injure or endanger any person."
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1986/1078/regulation/105/made
Surprised there isn't a 'knowingly' in there, but there you have it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38345056
wonderful.
bet twitter is in meLOLtdown.
"Cycle lanes are on the inside of traffic, there's a cycle lane just up ahead where the transport minister knocks the cyclist off his bike and that cycle lane is on the left hand side, so the road infrastructure is asking us to be on the left."
Missing the key point being that the cycle lane hadn't actually started yet. So they really shouldn't have been undertaking.
jesus.
on a rocket powered motorbike.
Never say that PB doesn't listen,
3:49PM
@RobD I always click on the ads of companies I don't like to raise revenue for the site.
Where the ads track your previous activity, you can sometimes click on ads where you have already made your purchase!
Mr. Meeks, that sounds like you're quite pleased a significant minority of Remainers view Leavers as either stupid or bigoted (or both).
1. Richmond Park which, of course, has been very recently captured by the Lib Dems, must have a decent chance of holding, especially if the Lib Dem tradition of strong incumbency is re-established next time around. Tom Brake in the redrawn Carshalton & Wallington is less than a thousand votes behind the Tories, and Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW only about 2,000 votes behind Labour (Nick Clegg and John Pugh are both slightly further adrift after the redraw, and may be in rather more difficulty for various reasons.)
2. There are two more Lib Dem targets with wafer-thin majorities to overcome - Eastbourne and Cambridge - and one would suspect that the yellows have a very good chance indeed of wresting the latter, at least, back off of Labour. There are also two more seats available in West London with Tory majorities in the 2-3,000 vote range.
3. The most recent Holyrood elections suggest that the Lib Dems may be in with a shot in NE Fife and in Edinburgh West, where they scored two rare constituency wins versus the SNP.
Therefore, even allowing for the fact that North Norfolk and Ceredigion are both arguably vulnerable, I reckon that the Lib Dems probably have too many chances elsewhere to drop as low as five seats.
Reading has its own special cyclist. uphillfreewheeler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PFRdEUN240
Interactive toggle graphs are the bee’s knees – that is all.
(I don't seem to be the only one having trouble with quoting today, have I done something daft to my browser?)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/16/hmp-birmingham-prison-disturbance-winson-green?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
< The 2013 Commons vote on Syria was right. Disaster was unavoidable
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/16/2013-commons-vote-syria-aleppo?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
# Last Brexit, we went with our hearts #
# And the very next day, Dave said "I'm away!" #
# This year, to save May from tears #
# She'll blame it on someone special #
(That special someone being Boris, if it all goes pear-shaped)
Mr. Jessop, (shortened, rewritten version), I agree. I don't hold people in contempt for the way they voted in the referendum and don't think it's wise or useful to do so.
The fact that a third of the Remain vote still backs the Tories probably reflects the fact that an awful lot of voters - especially on the centre-right - viewed the EU referendum in a pragmatic way. They voted to stay in primarily for economic reasons, but as soon as a majority for Leave was declared they accepted the decision of the country, shrugged their shoulders and moved on.
This is very important to remember when we start to look forward to the next General Election, whenever that may eventually happen. Firstly, pragmatic Remain voters are not necessarily going to be persuaded to switch parties just because one is more Europhile than another. Secondly, the Liberal Democrats are likely to have their appeal in Tory-leaning constituencies damaged by the "Vote Farron, Get Corbyn" strategy, which the Conservatives are certain to use against them.
It'll be interesting to see if the ( fairly contrived ) attempt to get the Jo Cox Charity Single to Christmas No1 succeeds.
https://twitter.com/MirrorCeleb/status/809789545709502464
The national irrevocable split is, as always, the concept of the minority that hold extreme and inflexible strong views that are to the margins of the majority of voters on both sides.
Mr. 1983, I agree. Some people are trying to achieve in the courts what the failed to achieve on polling day.
Mr. Eagles, interesting names, Octavian Basil. I wonder if he's a history buff?
You need a lonely teenage girl who's a very attractive outcast from society and who struggles to decide between two hot boyfriends (who, for plot reasons, are mostly shirtless) but who is somehow capable of destroying the tyrannical government despite centuries of unchallenged dystopia.
I'm getting tempted to write that as a parody myself. But I do have three novels on the go already...