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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

Who would have thought a year ago that as 2016 draws to a close, both Nigel Farage and David Cameron would have departed the stage while Jeremy Corbyn looks all the more secure in post? It’s a salutary reminder that there are always risks in getting too far ahead of ourselves. But where there are risks, so there are opportunities.

Read the full story here

rkrkrk

Nice article.
Sadiq definitely has a good platform - but partly depends on scale of Corbyn defeat. If it's really bad... He may feel someone else can do the rebuilding job.

edmundintokyo

Do you have to be an MP to run for leader? If so, how does he achieve that?

Since he's already given up his seat to be Mayor, it would be weird to run for parliament again while still being Mayor, pre-2020: It would be obvious that he was doing it to run for leader, but you're supposed to pretend to think your party's going to win, so it would look disloyal.

If it was after the election, even assuming someone helpful was prepared to stand aside to give him a run, would there be time to do it? Corbyn would have control of his own resignation timetable and presumably he wouldn't go out of his way to be helpful.

DecrepitJohnL

I backed Sadiq at 33/1 last year (iirc -- it was certainly a long time ago) and am not tempted to go in again. He may well be the next leader but, rather like Ed Balls and David Milliband, he is not currently a member of parliament. If Jeremy Corbyn does step down before the next election, that effectively bars these men.

The non-Corbynite Labour MPs have really ballsed this up. By refusing to work with Corbyn or serve in the shadow cabinet, they've effectively ruled out any chance of making a name for themselves and thus succeeding him.

On that note, a better bet might be Emily Thornberry who recently had a good PMQs or Keir Starmer who is up against the three stooges on Brexit. But I do not think I will be playing until Corbyn resigns.

MarqueeMark

Sadiq is a voice of Remain. He's going to have change his tune to a) get a seat and then b) convince the voters that he wasn't just speaking up for the City. Never a good look for a Labour leader, eh Tony?

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

On that note, a better bet might be Emily Thornberry who recently had a good PMQs or Keir Starmer who is up against the three stooges on Brexit. But I do not think I will be playing until Corbyn resigns.

Its difficult to see what could trigger a resignation - barring ill health - but he looks in good shape for someone of his age. Electoral mis-fortune would not appear to figure in Labour member calculations and the PLP is out of coup attempts. While Lady Nugee and Stamer may appear attractive now, I suspect we've got quite a wait before we find out....

rcs1000

OK. Just a thought.

Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?

It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result. The Labour Party doesn't know what it's position is. The LibDems used to do quite well in the region. And it's an election that might be the perfect opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.

Against that, the LibDem activist base is going to be spread out across the rest of the country fighting council election. But, like Norwich South in 2010, this could be an election won on a relatively low vote share. Assume the Tory and UKIP votes hold up well, and a good portion of Labour voters go LibDem, and you could see a shock.

Is anyone offering odds?

old_labour

rcs1000 said:

OK. Just a thought.

Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?

It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result. The Labour Party doesn't know what it's position is. The LibDems used to do quite well in the region. And it's an election that might be the perfect opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.

Against that, the LibDem activist base is going to be spread out across the rest of the country fighting council election. But, like Norwich South in 2010, this could be an election won on a relatively low vote share. Assume the Tory and UKIP votes hold up well, and a good portion of Labour voters go LibDem, and you could see a shock.

Is anyone offering odds?

Is that just the city of Manchester or Greater Manchester?

old_labour

It's Greater Manchester.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017

Moses_

O/T
Veteran ITN war correspondent Michael Nicholson, whose career spanned more than five decades, has died aged 79.Nicholson reported on the fall of Saigon in 1975, the Falklands War, the Balkans conflict, the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nicholson joined ITN in 1964 and was the network's senior foreign correspondent between 1989 and 1999.
He died while on a cruise with his wife Diana. ITN chief executive John Hardie said he was a "true legend".

peter_from_putney

Good spot David, I've invested £9.09 at 33/1, the maximum Bet365 would allow me. At the very worst, I would expect to be able to trade this out at considerably shorter odds at some juncture with Betfair. Compared with most of the other so-called leading candidates ,Sadiq Khan looks like value with a capital "V"!

peter_from_putney

Wasn't Michael Nicholson the chap who quoted the famous line "I quoted them all out and I counted them back in" in relation to the RAF's fighter aircraft forays during the Falklands War?

DecrepitJohnL

peter_from_putney said:

Wasn't Michael Nicholson the chap who quoted the famous line "I quoted them all out and I counted them back in" in relation to the RAF's fighter aircraft forays during the Falklands War?

No, it was the late Brian Hanrahan on the BBC who counted them all out and counted them all back.

peter_from_putney

rcs 1000:

As regards the Manchester Mayoral election, here's Oddschecker's current state of play as regards the various possible runners and riders:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/greater-manchester-mayoral-election/next-mayor

ydoethur

It's more than a bit worrying - or it should be - that every candidate mentioned on this thread for leader (Khan, Corbyn, Thornberry) plus the other usual suspects (Abbott, Macdonnell) are all Londoners of one description or another.

It is perhaps worth pointing out that only one London based leader has ever won an election for Labour - Clement Attlee in 1945 and 1950 (yes, I know Blair was a de facto Londoner, but bear with me).

London is of course our largest and wealthiest city and accounts for I believe over half of Labour's membership. But at the same time it's radically different from the rest of the country where 80% of seats (and votes) are. The population is younger, more mobile and more cosmopolitan, jobs are easier to find and better paid, the systems of housing and education are totally different, and as a result it sometimes feels as if they live on a different planet - one they consider to be infinitely superior.

Brexit may, or may not, be the kick in the balls for the metropolitan elite it is sometimes portrayed as. But it definitely did show not merely a rural/urban divide but a London/the rest divide. By concentrating on such a narrow clique, and not having the chance to understand these differences, Labour are running the very real risk of warping their message to the extent they only appeal to some fraction of the 20% of the population who live in London (broadly defined).

Blair was able to avoid that partly because of the large number of Scots in his cabinet but also because he had big figures from all over the country - Robinson from the south, Johnson, Prescott and Straw from the north, Clare Short from Birmingham. Where would Corbyn get that perspective from? He is, by some distance, the least typical Londoner in his own clique, but to the rest of us he looks identical to the rest of them. Watson might do it, but nobody listens to him. This problem will only get worse with disillusioned MPs heading off to build careers in local politics (e.g. Burnham).

I agree with DH for all these reasons that at 33/1 Khan is grossly overpriced - indeed in the circumstances he should probably be favourite. However, he is not in any way, shape or form the solution to Labour's woes and may even make them worse. They need a bluff northerner with good working class cred to tell the party some truths it doesn't want to hear. And worryingly, there is no sign of such a person.

peter_from_putney

MM: "Sadiq is a voice of Remain. He's going to have change his tune to a) get a seat and then b) convince the voters that he wasn't just speaking up for the City. Never a good look for a Labour leader, eh Tony?"

Fair comment - although it's very possible that by 2020 his "Remain" stance will have been forgotten, or OTOH, remembered as having been the right call!

BTW have I missed the debate on this, but has the "quote" facility with Vanilla now gone for all time or are we simply currently experiencing one of their hiccups?
I sincerely hope it's the latter, otherwise PB.com is likely to suffer considerably.

Jonathan

In an era when people can't predict an election on election night itself, why are bothering to predict an hypothetical election 4 years hence. Especially when big unknowns define the context of that election.

ydoethur

peter_from_putney said:

BTW have I missed the debate on this, but has the "quote" facility with Vanilla now gone for all time or are we simply currently experiencing one of their hiccups?
I sincerely hope it's the latter, otherwise PB.com is likely to suffer considerably.

You need to post via the forums, not the website, to have it.

Go to http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/

I actually always do post through the forums anyway - I prefer my comments chronologically.

peter_from_putney

" They need a bluff northerner with good working class cred to tell the party some truths it doesn't want to hear. And worryingly, there is no sign of such a person."

There aren't that many left as such are there?

DecrepitJohnL

peter_from_putney said:

BTW have I missed the debate on this, but has the "quote" facility with Vanilla now gone for all time or are we simply currently experiencing one of their hiccups?
I sincerely hope it's the latter, otherwise PB.com is likely to suffer considerably.

RCS posted that Vanilla is aware of and working on the problem, though he did not say how hard they are working or whether they have weekends off.

The workaround is to click on the time at the top of the message you want to quote. This takes you to the Vanilla interface which still has the quote button.

peter_from_putney

"You need to post via the forums, not the website, to have it."

Thanks, I'll have to see if I can work this out ..... if I can be bothered that is.

TTFN folks.

ydoethur

peter_from_putney said:

" They need a bluff northerner with good working class cred to tell the party some truths it doesn't want to hear. And worryingly, there is no sign of such a person."

There aren't that many left as such are there?

That is of course part of the problem, for which Labour will of course blame Thatcher

But a still bigger problem is that even if such a person can be unearthed, Labour show no sign of being willing to listen to them.

rcs1000

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

rcs1000

@Peter

That 50-1 on the LibDems is worth a fiver, I reckon.

AlastairMeeks

Sadiq Khan is a possible and is certainly value at 33/1. Unlike David Miliband, he's in the country and still active in politics. The mechanics are awkward, given he's not an MP.

I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots.

Jonathan

Following past patterns, look for the safest pair of hands vs someone who made an impact at the GE.

Jonathan

I expect it will be a woman.

peter_from_putney

AM "I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots."

A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?

PlatoSaid

peter_from_putney said:

Wasn't Michael Nicholson the chap who quoted the famous line "I quoted them all out and I counted them back in" in relation to the RAF's fighter aircraft forays during the Falklands War?

Brian Hanrahan
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1AF_-2rU0GY

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

It's more than a bit worrying - or it should be - that every candidate mentioned on this thread for leader (Khan, Corbyn, Thornberry) plus the other usual suspects (Abbott, Macdonnell) are all Londoners of one description or another.

It is perhaps worth pointing out that only one London based leader has ever won an election for Labour - Clement Attlee in 1945 and 1950 (yes, I know Blair was a de facto Londoner, but bear with me).

London is of course our largest and wealthiest city and accounts for I believe over half of Labour's membership. But at the same time it's radically different from the rest of the country where 80% of seats (and votes) are. The population is younger, more mobile and more cosmopolitan, jobs are easier to find and better paid, the systems of housing and education are totally different, and as a result it sometimes feels as if they live on a different planet - one they consider to be infinitely superior.

Brexit may, or may not, be the kick in the balls for the metropolitan elite it is sometimes portrayed as. But it definitely did show not merely a rural/urban divide but a London/the rest divide. By concentrating on such a narrow clique, and not having the chance to understand these differences, Labour are running the very real risk of warping their message to the extent they only appeal to some fraction of the 20% of the population who live in London (broadly defined).

Blair was able to avoid that partly because of the large number of Scots in his cabinet but also because he had big figures from all over the country - Robinson from the south, Johnson, Prescott and Straw from the north, Clare Short from Birmingham. Where would Corbyn get that perspective from? He is, by some distance, the least typical Londoner in his own clique, but to the rest of us he looks identical to the rest of them. Watson might do it, but nobody listens to him. This problem will only get worse with disillusioned MPs heading off to build careers in local politics (e.g. Burnham).

I agree with DH for all these reasons that at 33/1 Khan is grossly overpriced - indeed in the circumstances he should probably be favourite. However, he is not in any way, shape or form the solution to Labour's woes and may even make them worse. They need a bluff northerner with good working class cred to tell the party some truths it doesn't want to hear. And worryingly, there is no sign of such a person.

All legitimate comments, but the bet is whether Sadiq will win the Labour leadership, not the subsequent election. It is a reasonable punt, and as half the selectorate are in London, being a Londoner may well be an advantage.

I am not at all convinced that the Kippers will do well in the Northern ipost industrial seats, and if Labour's hesitent moves to an immigration controlled, protectionist pro-welfare state policy (Red Brexit) come off, then UKIP are toast.

ydoethur

Jonathan said:

I expect it will be a woman.

That was the pitch Yvette Cooper made.

It didn't end particularly well for her as I recall.

If race and gender were all important then Chris Bryant would be leading Labour. This would be because Diane Abbott would have led the party from 2010 to 2015 and he would be the sole surviving Labour MP.

rcs1000

Humour time.

Type "Jeremy Corbyn" into your phone. And then let predictive text do the rest. Only choose the middle option

Jeremy Corbyn into the high teens and the US than the TPP the LibDems didn't even stand in the UK over the last read it.

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

All legitimate comments, but the bet is whether Sadiq will win the Labour leadership, not the subsequent election. It is a reasonable punt, and as half the selectorate are in London, being a Londoner may well be an advantage.

I am not at all convinced that the Kippers will do well in the Northern ipost industrial seats, and if Labour's hesitent moves to an immigration controlled, protectionist pro-welfare state policy (Red Brexit) come off, then UKIP are toast.

I would be astonished if UKIP won more than five seats at the next election, still more astonished if three of them were north of the Humber.

I would be very far from astonished if a negative campaign against an 'out-of-touch metropolitan elite' split sufficient votes from Labour to allow the Conservatives and possibly the Liberal Democrats to make significant gains at their expense.

AlastairMeeks

peter_from_putney said:

AM "I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots."

A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?

I'm not sure even about that. Look for a Fortinbras, someone who picks up the crown because everyone else remotely plausible has been slain.

Some of the women MPs from the 2015 intake might be worth a punt.

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

peter_from_putney said:

AM "I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots."

A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?

I'm not sure even about that. Look for a Fortinbras, someone who picks up the crown because everyone else remotely plausible has been slain.

Some of the women MPs from the 2015 intake might be worth a punt.

Might Stella Creasy also be in the running if this is the main criteria? Genuine question.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

peter_from_putney said:

AM "I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots."

A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?

I'm not sure even about that. Look for a Fortinbras, someone who picks up the crown because everyone else remotely plausible has been slain.

Some of the women MPs from the 2015 intake might be worth a punt.

I like Stella, and she is young enough and good on telly.

The Momentum types seem to hate her with a vengance.

Sandpit

edmundintokyo said:

Do you have to be an MP to run for leader? If so, how does he achieve that?

Since he's already given up his seat to be Mayor, it would be weird to run for parliament again while still being Mayor, pre-2020: It would be obvious that he was doing it to run for leader, but you're supposed to pretend to think your party's going to win, so it would look disloyal.

If it was after the election, even assuming someone helpful was prepared to stand aside to give him a run, would there be time to do it? Corbyn would have control of his own resignation timetable and presumably he wouldn't go out of his way to be helpful.

That's a good point. Also, with the boundary changes coming, there's already going to a bun fight among the existing Labour MPs for the safer new seats.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

Recidivist

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

PlatoSaid

Following on from the relevance issue for younger voters re Corbyn

Richard Holloway
On this day in 1983, an IRA bomb killed six Christmas shoppers outside Harrods.
A bomb planted by Mr Corbyn's 'friends'...

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

peter_from_putney said:

AM "I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots."

A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?

I'm not sure even about that. Look for a Fortinbras, someone who picks up the crown because everyone else remotely plausible has been slain.

Some of the women MPs from the 2015 intake might be worth a punt.

Given that Jezza lasts until after the next election and the scramble for seats on the new boundaries it is a bit too far off for serious betting.

Will May win a majority? I am not so sure, and in a NOC situation the Labour Leader could be critical. Labour may well want someone who contrasts with May's lack of personal skills, though if May loses her majority she is probably for the chop anyway. Tories are unforgiving that way.

IanB2

I feel Stella will get the job eventually - and if Labour isn't permanently doomed she would be on my very short list for potential Tony Blair 2s (with or without all the subsequent disappointment). But I don't sense she has much chance of following on from Corbyn very soon - although of course the scale of defeat next time might be so shattering that all bets are off (or on).

On the boundaries Stella will either be fine, or in a fight-off with John Cryer for the one safe seat, depending on which way the Commission goes.

Sandpit

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

It's not working from the Vanilla integrated comments on www.politicalbetting.com. It is still working on the direct Vanilla site http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

foxinsoxuk

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

It doesn't appear on the main site, only on the forum. We can flag Off topic though on the rare occasions where conversation strays.

FF43

@ydoethur. Issues with Khan being a Londoner.

All the recent insurgencies have been led by people who are just as much part of the elite as those they accuse of being out of touch: Trump, Farage, Johnson, Le Pen and so on. Corbyn as you point out is metropolitan to his fingernails. Maybe this will change by 2020, but Khan isn't obviously disadvantaged. He's Asian which helps compensate for not being female. Lack of diversity is an issue for Labour members, which helps him get past the first stage towards being prime minister - it becoming Labour Party leader.

IanB2

When you look at where Labour's problems are coming from, and consider that both Brexit and Trump are at least partly a result of disaffected wwc voters, a Muslim Londoner and established career politician would seem an unlikely place to turn. Although of course what Labour should do and what it actually does are unlikely to be the same.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

A plausible bet. Not sure if I've really backed him, though.

Mr. 43, maybe. We'd have a better idea if (admittedly a very different) London mayor could fly as leader if Boris had become PM.

ydoethur

FF43 said:

@ydoethur. Issues with Khan being a Londoner.

All the recent insurgencies have been led by people who are just as much part of the elite as those they accuse of being out of touch: Trump, Farage, Johnson, Le Pen and so on. Corbyn as you point out is metropolitan to his fingernails. Maybe this will change by 2020, but Khan isn't obviously disadvantaged. He's Asian which helps compensate for not being female. Lack of diversity is an issue for Labour members, which helps him get past the first stage towards being prime minister - it becoming Labour Party leader.

I would agree with much of that. My point is that Labour seems to.increasingly lack non-London perspectives and unless this is resolved there is little chance of their leader ever becoming PM.

True, the insurgencies have been led by insiders. However they were insiders who, usually by accident admittedly, came up with popular messages that resonated with a wide proportion of the electorate.

Is Corbyn endlessly banging on about Southern Trains going on strike over driver-only trains going to win him votes in the Midlands where the need is for upgraded infrastructure? I would suggest not. Is his suggestion of banning fossil fuel cars going to win him friends in the mining areas of Durham? No. Is his stance on the IRA or Hamas going to make him friends in Cheshire? That doesn't even need answering. Do these policies play well with the tiny handful of people he actually listens to? Yes. Is that a disaster for Labour? I think Ed Miliband would have the answer.

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

@Peter

That 50-1 on the LibDems is worth a fiver, I reckon.

I get the logic, but Greater Manchester is much bigger than Manchester itself, with the Lancs milltowns more pro Leave.

The LDs do have a traditional base of support, but surely hard for Burnham to lose?

Of course the LDs are a party led by a working class northerner...

tlg86

I don't know if this should affect how we view this bet, but are we certain that the next London mayoral election will be held in 2020? Given that the system used to elect the Mayor of London is different to that used in the General Election, is it not the case that these votes will have to be held on a different day? I know the Mayoral election is held on the same day as other council elections which used FPTP, but I wonder if having four ballot papers on one day would be a bit too much.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Humour time.

Type "Jeremy Corbyn" into your phone. And then let predictive text do the rest. Only choose the middle option

Jeremy Corbyn into the high teens and the US than the TPP the LibDems didn't even stand in the UK over the last read it.

Doesn't work for me... what does it say?

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

It doesn't appear on the main site, only on the forum. We can flag Off topic though on the rare occasions where conversation strays.

I thought that button was flagging "on topic" posts for easy reference !

Morris_Dancer

Rumblings of discord on democracy and free press in Poland:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38347674

Pulpstar

This is a good punt @ 33s.

I've backed him on Betfair, (and not laid him).

Sadiq Khan 44.00 £5.00 £215.00

Although the current 14/100 price offering on Betfair is one to not take either side of ! (Don't back 14 and don't lay 100)

isam

Horrible attack. Unusual to see the race of the suspects mentioned in the sub headline rather than 'the police are looking for...' at the end of the item

"Muslim woman shoved to ground and dragged along pavement in 'sickening' attack in busy street

She was left lying on the floor for almost 20 minutes after the attack by two white men"

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/muslim-woman-knocked-down-and-dragged-along-pavement-in-sickening-attack-in-busy-street-a3421971.html

DavidL

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

isam

DavidL said:

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

No opinion on the bet myself, but presumably if he was in the commons he would be a single figure prove, so the fact he isn't is compensated for by the big price

tlg86

On Greater Manchester, the result of the EU referendum was 53.5% to 46.5% in favour of Leave. I note that it has not yet been decided which voting system will be used.

dr_spyn

@rcs1000

"OK. Just a thought.

Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?

It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result. The Labour Party doesn't know what it's position is."

Why else would they have picked Andy Burnham as candidate. Good to see Andy addressing the boys and girls of Unite in the run up to the Christmas strikes at Manchester airport.

kle4

foxinsoxuk said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

I. We can flag Off topic though on the rare occasions where conversation strays.

Heavens forbid such a thing should happen.

DavidL

isam said:

DavidL said:

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

No opinion on the bet myself, but presumably if he was in the commons he would be a single figure prove, so the fact he isn't is compensated for by the big price

A fair point although if he was in the Commons he would have a much lower profile than he does right now. I just think Labour is still bound for a lengthy period of opposition which seems to me a pretty pointless way to spend your life. It would be an exaggeration to suggest that there is a flow of talent out of Labour but those who think that there is more to life than asking questions and being outvoted are likely to find something else to do with their time.

kle4

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

@Peter

That 50-1 on the LibDems is worth a fiver, I reckon.

I get the logic, but Greater Manchester is much bigger than Manchester itself, with the Lancs milltowns more pro Leave.

The LDs do have a traditional base of support, but surely hard for Burnham to lose?

Of course the LDs are a party led by a working class northerner...

Burnham is a serial flip flopper with a gelatin spine, but he's not the sort of obviously, apocalyptically terrible candidate who could lose that one I think.

Pulpstar

Six

DavidL

Pulpstar said:

Six

That was pretty funny.

isam

DavidL said:

isam said:

DavidL said:

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

No opinion on the bet myself, but presumably if he was in the commons he would be a single figure prove, so the fact he isn't is compensated for by the big price

A fair point although if he was in the Commons he would have a much lower profile than he does right now. I just think Labour is still bound for a lengthy period of opposition which seems to me a pretty pointless way to spend your life. It would be an exaggeration to suggest that there is a flow of talent out of Labour but those who think that there is more to life than asking questions and being outvoted are likely to find something else to do with their time.

I guess it's like an ante post Horse racing bet at Cheltenham where you get a nice price because the horse isn't a confirmed runner yet.

Pulpstar

@isam Its a good horse but the course doesn't quite suit.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Rumblings of discord on democracy and free press in Poland:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38347674

A curious situation wherein the party leader quoted throughout is neither president or prime minister.

given some other rumbliings over government plans over there I'm surprised there's no comment from the eu. Probably thinking it best to stay out of this one.

isam

Pulpstar said:

@isam Its a good horse but the course doesn't quite suit.

Ahhh!

By the way, this quote debacle doesn't have to be an issue. It's much easier to follow the convo on

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4393/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-back-sadiq-khan-as-next-labour-leader-at-33-1#latest

And the quotes work

Pulpstar

Eng 33.5%
Draw 60.3%
Ind 6.2% is what Cricviz reckons.

DavidL

Dawson can clearly bat but the more important question is whether he can bowl well enough to get wickets on this surface. Like all of the spin bowlers we have tried on this trip I have my doubts.

rottenborough

tlg86 said:

On Greater Manchester, the result of the EU referendum was 53.5% to 46.5% in favour of Leave. I note that it has not yet been decided which voting system will be used.

seriously? they havent got a voting system and election is in may?

Sandpit

DavidL said:

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

And I think the next london election and the scheduled GE are on the same day, so he really would have to make a choice - the London Labour seats bunfight isn't going to accommodate someone wanting to stand in two elections!

rottenborough

foxinsoxuk said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

In what way is the quote button not working?

It doesn't appear on the main site, only on the forum. We can flag Off topic though on the rare occasions where conversation strays.

If we all decamp to the forum, then OGH will not get display ads on the website version iirc. Ads == server costs?

Moses_

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

First time I've heard a Crimbo piss up described as "deploy freeze" though......

tpfkar

DavidL said:

I think backing someone who is not even in the Commons is pretty daft. In Khan's case particularly so as he will face the choice of choosing between being in charge of our largest city and backbench opposition before another frustrating period of front bench opposition. There is also the risk that Corbyn loses so badly that even 2025 goes beyond reach.

The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.

I'd agree with that. He's chosen within this parliament to get out of Westminster for the mayoralty. It would be a mighty u-turn to come back within the same parliament and give up the mayoralty after a single term. He seems quite comfortable in the role so far. I wonder if David Herdson is too dismissive of 2025? Seems like everything might work better then, and the Labour Party might have outgrown its current teenage tantrums.

Wulfrun_Phil

Yes, it's a good value bet at 33/1. The Labour leader has to be nominated by MPs, but doesn't have to be an MP when elected.

I expect the successor to Corbyn to be one of Starmer, Lewis or Khan. At this moment it's probably odds on it being either one of those three or a female MP.

kle4

Looks like Libya is as hopeless as ever. Seems as though a Russian backed military strongman is the best hope of achieving unity,and even that is slight.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38341539

It's incredible to think that if gaddafi had had any friends of note, internationally, he'd still be there today, or his sons, as the unresolution would have been vetoed.

tlg86

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

On Greater Manchester, the result of the EU referendum was 53.5% to 46.5% in favour of Leave. I note that it has not yet been decided which voting system will be used.

seriously? they havent got a voting system and election is in may?

That was on the Wikipedia page. Here is another site that suggests it is the supplementary vote system as in London:

http://tinyurl.com/jzugtf8

For what it's worth, here's how Greater Manchester voted in the 2015 General Election:

Labour - 46.2%
Conservative - 26.7%
Ukip - 15.4%
Liberal Democrat - 7.3%
Green - 3.6%
Independent - 0.2%
Others - 0.6%

MarqueeMark

Emily Thornberry.

Just taking time to let that idea sink in.

The future of the Labour Party. Emily Thornberry.

Righto.....

The future of British car manufacturing. The Austin Allegro.

The future of British Cuisine. The Pot Noodle.

The future of Cool Britannia. Tony Blair.

The future of the Liberal Democrats. Ming Campbell.


I honestly think there is a lucrative business to be set up by pb.com, where a panel of contributors is brought in by politicians or businessmen or whoever, and utilising our various areas of expertise, we listen to their proposal before us.

Then, after a short period of consultation between us, we each pick up an enormo-herring and batter them around the head until that idea dies a rather gruesome death.

The future of the Labour Party - Emily Thornberry - could be one we run through as a freebie, just to show how well the project could work.

Theuniondivvie

MarqueeMark said:

Emily Thornberry.

Just taking time to let that idea sink in.

The future of the Labour Party. Emily Thornberry.

Righto.....

The future of British car manufacturing. The Austin Allegro.

The future of British Cuisine. The Pot Noodle.

The future of Cool Britannia. Tony Blair.

The future of the Liberal Democrats. Ming Campbell.


I honestly think there is a lucrative business to be set up by pb.com, where a panel of contributors is brought in by politicians or businessmen or whoever, and utilising our various areas of expertise, we listen to their proposal before us.

Then, after a short period of consultation between us, we each pick up an enormo-herring and batter them around the head until that idea dies a rather gruesome death.

The future of the Labour Party - Emily Thornberry - could be one we run through as a freebie, just to show how well the project could work.

IDS was the future of the Tory Party once upon a time..

Moses_

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Regarding the lack of "quote" functionality, this is the response I got from Vanilla:

Hey Robert,

Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.

Let me know if you have any other questions!

I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back

That's a crap response, but I can understand a deploy freeze for the next couple of weeks if they have loads of people on leave.

The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.

Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?

It's Putin innit. He's hacking websites.

Well every loss the loser does not like or understand is is now being blamed on Putin hacks so why should PB be any different.

We had Obarma and the Democrats saying they lost the US election because of Putin hacks and even the EU referendum result being blamed on Putin hacks by Bradshaw. The classic we lost but we will find some reason, any reason to discredit, undermine or de- litgitamise the vote. Expect lots more of this along the lines well it was unfair you won because of Putin. The fairytale becomes a meme then becomes urban legend. Just look at BBC news and Sky news reporting ias if it did actually happen. No eveidence of it though only inferred by those whose epic fail stated beyond doubt there were Iraq missiles and chemical weapons that could be launched in 45 minutes

Reds under the beds and swivel eyed loons indeed.

williamglenn

tlg86 said:

On Greater Manchester, the result of the EU referendum was 53.5% to 46.5% in favour of Leave. I note that it has not yet been decided which voting system will be used.

If only one side clearly represents the 46% while the rest are all fighting for what's left then they will tend to win.

Pulpstar

@MarqueeMark 150-1 back in August.

She's an MP, in with Corbyn's lot but still gets on with the moderates - she can

a) Get the nominations if she wishes,
b) Potentially win.

The fact that she is a woman counts against her more than any lack of ability.

I still think she's more likely to end up as Lewis' principle backer though.

rottenborough

MarqueeMark said:

Emily Thornberry.

Just taking time to let that idea sink in.

The future of the Labour Party. Emily Thornberry.

Righto.....

The future of British car manufacturing. The Austin Allegro.

The future of British Cuisine. The Pot Noodle.

The future of Cool Britannia. Tony Blair.

The future of the Liberal Democrats. Ming Campbell.


I honestly think there is a lucrative business to be set up by pb.com, where a panel of contributors is brought in by politicians or businessmen or whoever, and utilising our various areas of expertise, we listen to their proposal before us.

Then, after a short period of consultation between us, we each pick up an enormo-herring and batter them around the head until that idea dies a rather gruesome death.

The future of the Labour Party - Emily Thornberry - could be one we run through as a freebie, just to show how well the project could work.

Stop it I can't breath I am laughing too much.

On the other hand she is a woman and she has successful reprogrammed herself as a hard left, British flag hater, and anti-nuclear fanatic despite being one of Blair's late babes.

MarqueeMark

Theuniondivvie: "IDS was the future of the Tory Party once upon a time.."

An idea never allowed to run its course. When required, the Tory Party can reach for the enormo-haddock unaided...

SquareRoot

Michael Nicholson ITN war correspondent died aged 79 RIP.

More or less stated yesterday iIRC that apart from a spike in the first three months of the year, celebrities were dying at about the same rate as in previous years.

IanB2

The Greater Manchester 2010 GE result might be useful background info for consideration - and probably more reflective of the current political environment, at least for local elections?

CarlottaVance

SquareRoot said:

Michael Nicholson ITN war correspondent died aged 79 RIP.

More or less stated yesterday iIRC that apart from a spike in the first three months of the year, celebrities were dying at about the same rate as in previous years.

And the BBC points out that many who became celebrities in the age of mass television - the sixties - are approaching the end of their lives...

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38329740

tlg86

IanB2 said:

The Greater Manchester 2010 GE result might be useful background info for consideration - and probably more reflective of the current political environment, at least for local elections?

Labour - 40.1%
Conservative - 27.4%
Liberal Democrat - 23.9%
BNP - 3.2%
Ukip - 3.2%
Green - 0.6%
Independent - 0.7%
Others - 0.9%

NickPalmer

On mechanics, the way it could work is that Labour lost the 2020 GE badly on the same day as winning a thumping majority in London. The party then might say oo-er, we'd better get the message. Khan could then be elected and a volunteer found to stand down to get him back to the Commons (awkward but everyone would get over it). An important asset is that it's not hard to be a popular London Mayor - the Standard is usually friendly to the incumbent, and he's already seen off all the "his cousin once had tea with a mad Mullah" stuff: people would laugh if the Tories tried that one again.

That said, he's a centrist with no strong known views on national affairs, and that's not usually a winning stance in Labour leader selections. Any candidate to his left - Thornberry and Lewis are the obvious ones,and Thornberry is better-rated by Labour members than the comments here might suggest (people seem hung up on the fact that she's married to a peer, so what) - would start with an edge. More generally, betting on individuals in an open field several years ahead is usually a bookie's dream - there are hundreds of people who might come to the fore in the meantime.

On the London issue, I'm not convinced that it plays as strongly as one might think - just as Nuttall isn't going to sweep Yorkshire just because he comes from Merseyside, non-London voters primarily judge people on other issues. Scotland may be the exception.

kle4

NickPalmer said:

there are hundreds of people who might come to the fore in the meantime.

Fancy a shot yourself should the ball come lose from the scrum?

NickPalmer

Marina Hyde is amusing form on identity politics:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/16/last-acceptable-prejudice-pale-stale-males

brokenwheel

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

On Greater Manchester, the result of the EU referendum was 53.5% to 46.5% in favour of Leave. I note that it has not yet been decided which voting system will be used.

If only one side clearly represents the 46% while the rest are all fighting for what's left then they will tend to win.

Only one side was figting for the 38% in Sleaford, they got 11%.

Outside of the leafy Cheshire borders and the Quinoa-munching denizens of Didsbury i'm not sure the refendum vote will have quite as much salience as some expect. These are places the Lib dems used to win in previous elections anyway.

kle4

NickPalmer said:

Marina Hyde is amusing form on identity politics:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/16/last-acceptable-prejudice-pale-stale-males

Not bad, and it is a subject worthy of some amount of humour.

Pale, stale males need nor worry though, apparently it is not one of the acceptable prejudices, as I was instructed to remove a reference to them as part of a longstanding jokey comment on picturing the average local Councillor.

This comment, however, was completely unacceptable:

Before we proceed any further, let us concur that all prejudices are bad – amirite, kids? – with obvious exceptions, such as ones against Sting or Formula One

I'm on board with Sting, but F1? How dare you?

Jonathan

There is of course the other strategy to predict left-wing politics right now. Pick the worse case scenario. Double it. That's what will happen.

Richard Burgon, Angela Rayner, Cat Smith.

As such, all plausible candidates for the top job. We'll look back on the current period as a golden era. Much as we do with Ed today.

Innocent_Abroad

O/T Still no "comment" button. Is it coming back, or not?

rottenborough

Innocent_Abroad said:

O/T Still no "comment" button. Is it coming back, or not?

S/w developers are aware but they are on xmas break, so nothing likely before new year.

brokenwheel

rcs1000 said:

OK. Just a thought.

Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?

It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result.

Can't stress this enough; Greater Manchester is much bigger than the City of Manchester, which is only a small part of the conurbation. It's like assuming how the rest of Greater London will vote based on just the Cities of London and Westminster.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems will come either third or second, but there are vast swathes of GM where their message does not resonate. Hell, in some boroughs they don't even bother standing any candidates at all.

tlg86

Greater Manchester is quite a good example of why Labour did so badly in 2015. In 2010 they won 22 seats with 468,000 votes (40.3%) and in 2015 they won 21 seats with 530,000 votes (46.2%). Admittedly Greater Manchester lost one seat overall, but still a good example of Labour putting on votes where it did them no good.

williamglenn

Merkel is sending one of her closest advisers to meet Trump's National Security Advisor Michael Flynn this week.

CD13

Mr Star,

"I still think she's more likely to end up as Lewis' principle backer though."

I suspect you mean 'principal' backer as Emily doesn't have principles.