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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

Well this a headline I thought I'd never see. Liam Fox talking about remaining in the customs union. https://t.co/dDfzc2hy7T pic.twitter.com/t05fz3G3WB

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tory unity and belief in constitutional government surprises you @TSE?

    Perhaps you really are a LibDem!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    I would like a deal that would limit EU imports to Britain, I don't think the customs union does this.

    80% of our giant ballooning trade deficit is with the EU, the reason why I'm a Leaver is that EU membership and Free Trade with the Eurozone is harming the economy.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Yep, Islamists certainly want peace. The Guardian et al will be asking for donations.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38358177

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38356058

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38341539

    and the above only on one BBC page today. Merry Christmas all.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The betrayal of Brexit as voted for in the referendum, is looming larger by the day. This move or chatter by Fox stinks of defeat. Give the man a stamp and he'll lick it!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brexit again?

    I'm off to watch Yesterday channel Secrets of War - narrated by Charlton Heston - what a fabulous voice he had.

    For those who are sick to death of Brexit - have some Ben Hur.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frE9rXnaHpE
  • I think TSE is right to spot ths as the story of the day. It all goes back to the Nissan letter and why the government is hiding it. The broad assurrence that a continental exporter like Nissan wouldn't be worse off as a result of Brexit is a collosall contingent liability. The only way it can't be called in is via a slow Brexit as much as a Soft one.

    This leaves two questions then. #1 How quickly do europhobes scream betrayal and say the reason Brexit didn't produce Magic Unicorns is because Brexit didn't really happen ? #2 How will the Europeans respond to this extraordinary admission of the weakness of our negotiating position ?

    IMHO the answers to that are #1 Immediately #2 demand *net* contrabutions to the EU budget so close the existing ones as to represent national humiliation.

    Which doesn't mean Methadone Brexit as opposed to Cold Turkey Brexit won't be met with relief by people like me. We are where we are.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Not only do we want our quote button back, but our LIKE button too. Cannot OGH see it's Christmas?
  • Charles said:

    Tory unity and belief in constitutional government surprises you @TSE?

    Perhaps you really are a LibDem!

    Tory unity on matters related to the European Union does surprise me.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    edited December 2016
    I suspect experienced and knowledgeable civil servants have sat down with him and explained the brutal complexities of all of this - hence his abandonment of the naive, hard-Brexiteer factionalism. Will this be a Nixon-in-China moment? Farage will definitely call foul, so it will become a battle between him/his alchemy and a chunk the Tory eurosceptic establishment (the rest will surely side with Farage). It's difficult to predict a winner. If Farage can paint the May, Fox, Boris etc. as just another bunch of elite sell-outs he might garner some significant political rewards. Much will depend on whether the primitive anti-politics of Leave and Trump has yet reached its apogee.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    edited December 2016
    Afternoon all :)

    Didn't listen to the Fox interview as I have better things to do with my life. The truth is therefore that Nissan carries more weight with HMG than the 17 million or so LEAVE voters and the terms that work for Nissan will have to work for all of us whether we like it or not.

    It's a sell out and many of us saw it coming. If we have to stay in some form of Single Market relationship, if we have to accept some migration, if we have to continue paying into the EU, that will be a price worth paying to keep Nissan and its jobs and factories here.

    The deal which satisfies no one might be the best deal for Britain but I'm not the one who has to sell it to the electorate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    I'm sticking by my prediction that Brexit was a victory from which euroscepticism will never recover. The alternatives (and those who have promoted them) will be tested to destruction and in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    ho hum

    usual nonsense
  • What interesting this that this interview took place after the stunning revelation that Trump intends to kick Mexico out of NAFTA and replace them with us. I take it Liam wasn't wholly convinced.
  • ho hum

    usual nonsense

    From Liam Fox? Well that wouldn't be unprecedented
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    MikeK said:

    The betrayal of Brexit as voted for in the referendum, is looming larger by the day. This move or chatter by Fox stinks of defeat. Give the man a stamp and he'll lick it!

    The only betrayal would be if we didn't leave. It isn't for anyone to interpret what the people voting voted for, only Cameron's resignation caused this to be an issue. If he had stayed he would have been entitled to negotiate as little or much as he wanted.

    Future elected governments will be more integrated or less so with the EU in the same way a Lab govt may be less inclined to deal with a republican POTUS than a Tory, and vice versa w a Democrat. They will just be a foreign country who we have a ever changing relationship with like any other
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    @TSE

    nah across the board, even Osborne was trying to pretend he cared yesterday.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    This is all very pointless.

    Fox will accept cabinet decision.
    Will EU accept cabinet decision?

    Thought not - it is a negotiation.
  • FPT:
    PlatoSaid said:

    I had to do a double take at seeing the Mayhew get mentioned on here. It's where we adopted our cat ten years ago.

    @Stark_Dawning LOL at the shade you've just thrown at people on this site.

    Mayhew were the subject of their own TV documentary series - why is it a surprise they're well known? Think it was on ITV last year or so.
    RE the Mayhew documentary. I wasn't aware of that. Hopefully ITV show it again.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    What interesting this that this interview took place after the stunning revelation that Trump intends to kick Mexico out of NAFTA and replace them with us. I take it Liam wasn't wholly convinced.

    Shouldn't the pussy groper at least buy us dinner first?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.
  • Oh dear, the Remoaners will be upset....just this morning Nick Cohen was assuring us that Brexiteers were screaming in incoherent rage, and Mr Meeks likened them to Nazis.

    Instead they believe in the collective responsibility of cabinet and decisions arrived at by deliberation by cabinet committee.

    Yearning for the days of sofa government with no minutes?

    You really shouldn't believe all the things you say about the May government.

    Grown ups? Who knew?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Yes, that's an interesting interview. It possibly reflects the fact that most people (52%) like the idea of Brexit, but don't necessarily care about the details. Most people are IMO just getting on with their lives. They don't want another referendum, or a deal that upends their existence, and any vaguely reasonable-sounding deal that gets us more or less outside the EU without disaster will be OK with them.

    To reply to Recidivist on the last thread, the evidence of a surge in EU support on the Continent after Brexit was a series of polls showing a sharp upturn - I remember one in Denmark and there were at least two in other countries. Insofar as Brexit is being discussed in the Continental media, it's in terms of being a difficult mess for Britain, so floating voters are presumably feeling that they don't want one of those, thanks. It doesn't mean they suddenly think the EU is wonderul, just that abruptly pushing off sounds unattractive.

    Anecdotally, two friends in finance are invsting heavily in Euro stocks, on the basis that they expect Merkel and the French centre-right to win and think the Euro will jump after that. DYOR, obviosly, but I think they're right about the politics of it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Jason said:

    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

    Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?

    - Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
    - Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
    - Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
    - Depression: Just make it go away.
    - Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.
  • in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.

    So far, by 61:39 they're saying don't ask us again we've given you our answer....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    No, more that they don't want to give anything away, so are dropping conflicting hints all over the place.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited December 2016
    Jason said:

    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

    I actually agree with this.

    I'm tired of this never ending Brexit discussion.
  • Ms. Apocalypse, we can always discuss the empty Mercedes seat :D

    Mr. Glenn, people often get bored when there's saturation coverage (cf Sky News and court cases).
  • Seems to me more likely after this that Aaron Banks will set up some kind of Faragist populist party than it did yesterday. Fox will be on the hit list.
  • Mr. Borough, unless UKIP's faction-ridden beyond repair, setting up a new party is a waste. Any new party will split the vote, making it even harder to make up ground.
  • SNP Government caught being dodgy more than a little selective in presentation of funding from Westminster:

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/12/spinning-scottish-budget.html?m=1
  • Ms. Apocalypse, we can always discuss the empty Mercedes seat :D

    Mr. Glenn, people often get bored when there's saturation coverage (cf Sky News and court cases).

    Formula 1 isn't really something I know that much about....
  • Electoral College meets tomorrow to sign the certificates for POTUS:

    https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/roles.html
  • Seems to me more likely after this that Aaron Banks will set up some kind of Faragist populist party than it did yesterday. Fox will be on the hit list.

    I agree with Nick Palmer - most voters think 'we're leaving the EU (decision taken, don't ask us again) and if what emerges looks reasonably fair they'll accept it - only the philes and phobes will scream from their little corners......and if Mr Banks wants to set the Peoples' Front of Brexit on the Brexit Peoples' Front no one will care....
  • Ms. Apocalypse, then it's a glaring omission in your education that must be rectified :)

    It's a good sport for betting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    Ho hum.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    williamglenn Posts: 7,286
    3:33PM

    Jason said:

    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

    Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?

    - Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
    - Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
    - Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
    - Depression: Just make it go away.
    - Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.

    **
    Or a whole Brexit-free week, followed by another, with only one day per week of bloody Brexit ...

    We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I think we're all tired of Brexit discussion, but it's hard to stop, particularly when new stages of the process and the hysterical reactions on all sides rear their heads every few days.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

    Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.
  • DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

    Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.
    You think millions of people are going to do that? You do know about the stubborness of human nature and sticking with something long after one should abandon it? It's practically why we have political parties which people stay with for decades even as they change beyond all recognition in that time.
  • We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

    Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it think they can stop it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.
    Fixed it for you......
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    One or two people hanging their metaphorical hats on yesterday's polling suggesting a majority opposed to a second referendum.

    I agree there would be opposition to a second referendum NOW but no one is suggesting that. The proposal is for a second referendum on the result of the A50 negotiations so the earliest likely date for such a vote would be spring 2019 which is a lifetime away.

    I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear. Inevitably since at the moment in lieu of anything else everyone can believe the Government is moving in their preferred direction, the reality will leave some disappointed and angry.


  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited December 2016
    Seems to be a rather unfortunate hostage situation emerging at Al Karak, the former Crusader/Ottoman castle in Jordan.

    The place is a notable tourist attraction for foreigners from North America, Europe and the Middle East.
  • Seems to me more likely after this that Aaron Banks will set up some kind of Faragist populist party than it did yesterday. Fox will be on the hit list.

    I agree with Nick Palmer - most voters think 'we're leaving the EU (decision taken, don't ask us again) and if what emerges looks reasonably fair they'll accept it - only the philes and phobes will scream from their little corners......and if Mr Banks wants to set the Peoples' Front of Brexit on the Brexit Peoples' Front no one will care....
    We shall see. I think/worry that we are seriously underestimating the potential in these febrile times for the English People's Party or whatever.

    FPTP may save us, but it could be a rocky ride.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016

    Jason said:

    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

    Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?

    - Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
    - Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
    - Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
    - Depression: Just make it go away.
    - Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.
    The phases of a project:

    Enthusiasm

    Panic

    Search for the guilty

    Punishment of the innocent

    Praise and honours for the uninvolved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited December 2016
    stodge said:



    I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear.

    Grow, yes, but how much? It is inevitable more people than now will be disappointed, as it will be impossible to please everyone, but not all will switch to being a second referendum supporter, just as many remainers are now the most vocal for just getting on with things and having the most clean break possible. And that not even getting into what kind of question would be asked, what the government situation would need to be to permit such a thing (May's government is clear we will be a success no matter what, so how could they survive backtracking just because they didn't get their favoured deal, assuming they even admitted what we get is not exactly what they wanted).

    At present, there are hypothetical paths away from Brexit, but very little to indicate they are remotely plausible, and even if they were, whether it would be a good idea given we so publicly repudiated the EU and all it stands for.

    So long as the sky does not cave in with the deal we do get, that will be sufficient for most people. The prospect of a terrible deal will not sway the majority, as it didn't convince in the first place.

    A pleasant evening to all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....
    Yes, I fear their obsession with hard Brexits is definitely telling.

    But it does get wearisome. And adds very little light to the discussion.
  • DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    Ho hum.

    1) You need to get your mind out of the gutter, flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    2) I did think about talking about the UK's withdrawal method and it being flaccid, but I'm a paragon of virtue

    3) There's an AV thread being published tonight
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

    Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.
    You think millions of people are going to do that? You do know about the stubborness of human nature and sticking with something long after one should abandon it? It's practically why we have political parties which people stay with for decades even as they change beyond all recognition in that time.
    I think the vast majority of people who voted in the referendum did so without having any tribal loyalty to one side or the other, and are quite capable of mentally rewriting history to swap sides. The figure to watch is past vote recollection in the polls. If pollsters start finding fewer and fewer people who say they voted Leave, you know the mood has changed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    edited December 2016
    And of course Leavers like Boris have never made any innuendo laden comments about Brexit
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "I think we're all tired of Brexit discussion ..."

    I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Corbyn on the way out before a General Election or is a kite being flown?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/810515948000202752
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.

    So far, by 61:39 they're saying don't ask us again we've given you our answer....
    You have to remember that in a Remainer's worldview only the 39 count as "sensible"
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    Ho hum.

    1) You need to get your mind out of the gutter, flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    2) I did think about talking about the UK's withdrawal method and it being flaccid, but I'm a paragon of virtue

    3) There's an AV thread being published tonight
    #the holly and the AV...
  • Electoral College meets tomorrow to sign the certificates for POTUS:

    https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/roles.html

    Yes but which electoral college?

    The one Trump condemned as undemocratic or the one Dems now deride in the same terms? Funny how winning or losing changes your perspective.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Charles said:

    in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.

    So far, by 61:39 they're saying don't ask us again we've given you our answer....
    You have to remember that in a Remainer's worldview only the 39 count as "sensible"
    It depends whether that's in the English or the French sense of the word. :)
  • "I think we're all tired of Brexit discussion ..."

    I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    I agree. The Leavers' 'How we won the referendum' and 'How useless Dave ran the worst campaign in the history of the planet' have been milked to death. But ancient history aside, Brexit and its implications will be the defining issue of the decade ahead - more so possibly than industrial relations were to the 1970s and nuclear disarmament was to the 1980s. This was never going to be a small thing. We are now all Brexit's children.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....
    Yes, I fear their obsession with hard Brexits is definitely telling.
    Liam Fox had a more elegant metaphor 'its not a boiled egg'.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
  • Mr. Glenn, who would they have as monarch?
  • I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
    They can achieve that by honouring the Treaty of Troyes.
  • DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    Ho hum.

    1) You need to get your mind out of the gutter, flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    2) I did think about talking about the UK's withdrawal method and it being flaccid, but I'm a paragon of virtue

    3) There's an AV thread being published tonight
    #the holly and the AV...
    It also contains a very subtle pop music reference in the headline.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Mr. Glenn, who would they have as monarch?

    I don't think that was polled, but the highest level of support for the idea was among supporters of the FN at 55%.
  • French monarchists favour either Louis Alphonse, Duke of Anjou (of the Bourbon Line, ruling prior to the revolution) or Henri d'Orléans, Count of Paris (descendent of Louis Phillipe).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    # Simply AV-ing a wonderful Brexit time #

    Interesting story about Jezza. But why wait until 2019?
  • It's monarchists that back the FN, not the FN backing the monarchy BTW.

    French monarchists tend to be very conservative in general.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    When pushed on the issue, Fox said that he would 'argue his case in Cabinet', but carefully avoided saying exactly what his case was. If indeed he would resign over remaining fully in the CU, he realises that saying so on Marr isn't going to go down well.*

    *and would hasten my £150 payout on him as first out of the Cabinet
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    Well, it's an adjective for a start, not a metaphor.

    Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other. Deflated bouncy castles or cushions are rarely called "flaccid", but deflated or saggy columns are, usually with a "fnarr-fnarr" as subtext.

    Pause.

    Well, you did ask... :)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    Liam Fox had a more elegant metaphor 'its not a boiled egg'.....

    Many words may be used to describe Liam Fox. "Elegant"...is not one of them.

  • Mr. Rabbit, cheers, interesting info.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    It would seem that pragmatism has overtaken the brexiters
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "We may stay in a EU Customs Union" - Liam Fox.

    The torrent of blood flowing from millions slashing their wrists.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I do now believe that if A50 is revocable, we will stay in the EU after all. It will be obvious that the grass is not greener on the other side.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    viewcode said:

    flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    Well, it's an adjective for a start, not a metaphor.

    Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other. Deflated bouncy castles or cushions are rarely called "flaccid", but deflated or saggy columns are, usually with a "fnarr-fnarr" as subtext.

    Pause.

    Well, you did ask... :)

    TSE is a man of many words. He did not use the word unnecessarily. The fox needed to be deflated.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

    I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....
    Yes, I fear their obsession with hard Brexits is definitely telling.
    Liam Fox had a more elegant metaphor 'its not a boiled egg'.....
    Brexit is like a box of chocolates, you think that you have picked carefully, but it turns out to be the coffee cream.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
    I am sure Sarkozy is prepared to serve. He thinks he is a king anyway.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Can Chris from Paris be persuaded to write something on the French presidential election?
    I find his analysis in the comments great reading.
  • "Festive cheer was apparently lacking at the Labour Christmas party. Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, reportedly left the karaoke bash after ministers started singing “Things Can Only Get Better” and chanting about Tony Blair.

    A report of the boozy sing-song in the Mail on Sunday stated that Corbyn walked out with his shadow chancellor John McDonnell, shadow attorney general Shami Chakrabarti and Richard Burgon.

    Also on the rebellious MP's playlist were Madonna’s classic hit “Like a Virgin” — a nod to the Virgin trains incident when Corbyn claimed there were no seats and was filmed sitting on the floor, and The Beatles “Back in the USSR” — a presumed dig at him for failing to take a tougher stance against Russia’s bombing of Aleppo in Syria."
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/12/jeremy-corbyn-walks-out-labour-christmas-party-where-mps-sung-tony-blairs
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn on the way out before a General Election or is a kite being flown?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/810515948000202752

    Where will Ed Balls get his safe seat ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jason said:

    Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

    I want at least one Brexit story every day.
  • I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
    I do think a proper constitutional monarchy is a great asset to a country. Obviously (I hope) I am not in favour of a return to monarchs with executive powers but a non political head of state who can represent the whole country and command the respect of all its peoples irrespective of their narrow political views is, I believe, a great advantage.

    Politicising the head of state as they do in the US or France as examples diminishes a nation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,962
    SandyRentool: "Interesting story about Jezza. But why wait until 2019?"

    So as not to get your hopes up. And to give Theresa May time to call a snap election with him still in place.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Surbiton.. is that a fake news story?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

    How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
    But do they want a hard monarch or a soft one? A lot of anti-monarchists don't understand that the divine right of kings doesn't mean you can't also have a constitutional monarchy. They just keep going on about beheadings and selling monopolies to favourites.
  • Dr. Foxinsox, I really like coffee cream.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    who is the current heir to the French throne?
  • Mr. Recidivist, speaking of such things, not many people know that Orleans was named after Aurelian, a superb but significantly underrated and largely forgotten emperor. He smashed the break-away Gallic Empire (and the break-away Palmyrene Empire).
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ viewcode "Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other."

    I think by this you reveal far more about yourself than about the meaning or usage of this word.

    "flac·cid
    ˈfla(k)səd/Submit
    adjective
    (of part of the body) soft and hanging loosely or limply, especially so as to look or feel unpleasant.
    "she took his flaccid hand in hers"
    synonyms: soft, loose, flabby, slack, lax; More
    antonyms: firm

    (of plant tissue) drooping or inelastic through lack of water.
    lacking force or effectiveness.

    "the flaccid leadership campaign was causing concern"
    synonyms: lackluster, lifeless, listless, uninspiring, unanimated, tame, dull, vapid
    "his play seemed flaccid"
  • kle4 said:

    stodge said:



    I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear.

    Grow, yes, but how much? It is inevitable more people than now will be disappointed, as it will be impossible to please everyone, but not all will switch to being a second referendum supporter, just as many remainers are now the most vocal for just getting on with things and having the most clean break possible. And that not even getting into what kind of question would be asked, what the government situation would need to be to permit such a thing (May's government is clear we will be a success no matter what, so how could they survive backtracking just because they didn't get their favoured deal, assuming they even admitted what we get is not exactly what they wanted).

    At present, there are hypothetical paths away from Brexit, but very little to indicate they are remotely plausible, and even if they were, whether it would be a good idea given we so publicly repudiated the EU and all it stands for.

    So long as the sky does not cave in with the deal we do get, that will be sufficient for most people. The prospect of a terrible deal will not sway the majority, as it didn't convince in the first place.
    Much as I appreciate the Lib Dems pressing for a second referendum, I don't think it will happen, because of the way our political system operates. We were never going to leave the EU through purely parliamentary means - in 20 years UKIP got, what, 1 MP? But it played a long game around a single issue that (by accident or design) put both Labour and the Conservative under pressure, until one of them snapped and committed us to a referendum, to enable a LD intifada and win GE2015.

    Once the referendum was on, party loyalty no longer counted.

    Now that we're back to politics as usual, neither Lab or Con will feel inclined to insert a Ref2 into their manifesto (Con have, for the moment, lanced the UKIP boil, and Labour are going through a, possibly doomed, rebuilding process and are out of the loop for another parliamentary cycle). The LDs might, and they *might* get another coalition out of it, and use it as a bargaining chip to form a government (like with the AV vote) and maybe of Brexit starts to seriously drag on, this might proof fruitful.

    I would start thinking of themselves as 'UKIP in reverse'. Given the age split of the Referendum Vote, the LibDems should stand on a platform of another referendum to 'rejoin' the EU following Brexit. This would be something positive to get behind, give us a few years whilst the EU weathers (or doesn't) a variety of other Brexit-style votes, and allows a lot more young people to grow up and get politically involved with a positive re-engagement with Europe. It might take ten years, but time is the best lever...
  • surbiton said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn on the way out before a General Election or is a kite being flown?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/810515948000202752

    Where will Ed Balls get his safe seat ?
    The irony being that Ed Balls thought he had been given a safe seat 10 years ago.

    Though one electoral sage made this prediction about Morley & Outwood in July 2007:

    " I think Labour will win here but suspect it could be closer than expected – say 2000 majority.

    Balls strikes me as something of a cold fish and will struggle in an area like this filled with ambitious, independently minded working class voters.

    Long term this will be won by the Conservatives the next time they win an overall majority. "
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Started the Witcher 3 DLC today, man did I miss playing this game a lot. Easily the best game of the current console generation.
  • Mr. Max, I've still not got that, but it'll probably be the first story DLC I ever download.

    It is an outstanding game. Be interesting to see if The Last of Us 2 can give it a run for its money. And I do hope they make another (I think we will get a Witcher 4, but it may have either another main character *or* a make-your-own-witcher approach).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

    Well, it's an adjective for a start, not a metaphor.

    Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other. Deflated bouncy castles or cushions are rarely called "flaccid", but deflated or saggy columns are, usually with a "fnarr-fnarr" as subtext.

    Pause.

    Well, you did ask... :)

    I prefer flaccid's antonym.

    Turgid.

    Such a great word. Almost onomatopoeic. So much potential.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited December 2016

    Mr. Max, I've still not got that, but it'll probably be the first story DLC I ever download.

    It is an outstanding game. Be interesting to see if The Last of Us 2 can give it a run for its money. And I do hope they make another (I think we will get a Witcher 4, but it may have either another main character *or* a make-your-own-witcher approach).

    It would be amazing if they did a make your own Witcher approach and stole the combat mechanics from Dragon's Dogma. TW4 could be a perfect game if they do both of those things.

    I have to say I've gone off Naughty Dog a little bit, I didn't enjoy Uncharted 4 as much as I thought I would and their games feel far too scripted now. It's as if the game is just letting you interact with the environment a little bit to advance the story rather than the player advancing the story by interacting with the environment.

    On the DLC, might be worth looking out for the GOTY edition, I bought it for £20 just now from Amazon and get £8 from CEX for my ordinary edition with no DLC. Worked out to £12 for both DLCs in the end vs £24 for both from PSN.
  • Mr. Max, Dragon's Dogma's combat was astoundingly good. So much so it was a great RPG even with a generic world and a plot that goes missing for most of the game. Can't believe Capcom (think it was them) buggered up the sequel so much by making it some online multiplayer tosh.

    Agree that combat is the only obvious area for improvement in The Witcher 3.

    I have mixed views on creating your own character. Generally, I really like it, but CD Projekt Red did such a good job with the defined character of Geralt that it may be better sticking with that approach (not to mention, most RPGs have a make-your-own style).

    Only played the first two Uncharted games. Played the most recent Tomb Raiders, and enjoyed both of those, though.
  • Mr. Max, CEX?

    Yeah, I've been looking to do that, but it's a time/money issue as well as timing it right (the edition keeps appearing and disappearing and I don't have much cash to spare at the moment).
  • What I deduce from this is that Liam Fox has reached the "don't shoot the piano player" stage. Will the hardcore Conservative Leavers follow his lead?

    Others will be better placed than me to judge. Assessing hardliners and moderates on the Europhobic right is like assessing hardliners and moderates in the Iranian government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    Charles said:



    I prefer flaccid's antonym.

    Turgid.

    Such a great word. Almost onomatopoeic. So much potential.

    Such an...upstanding name. Standing proudly, ready to burst.

    General Buck Turgidson
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited December 2016
    Public Service Announcement (as I think there's at least one other chap in the Morley & Outwood constituency here):
    If you hear someone knocking on your door in the early hours, don't answer it (perhaps check through the window).

    It may be a gang with club/knives trying to get your car keys.

    Edited extra bit: anyway, time for me to be off.
This discussion has been closed.