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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The plan for a progressive alliance might have an itsy bitsy t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The plan for a progressive alliance might have an itsy bitsy teenie weenie flaw with it
How the 2015 general election result would look like under different voting systems by The @electoralreform Societyhttps://t.co/Gyvm8kJbyt pic.twitter.com/DPwiWsYk99
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FPT:
No, not the AV thread - just the new thread: it wasn't showing up on my Vanilla index.
Good evening, everyone.
AV it.
Crazy talk.
In all seriousness, there are obvious partisan benefits to people like the LDs and UKIP especially to changing the voting system, but that doesn't mean it is not also a good idea regardless, and they should not shy away from proposing it as part of more popular policies just because it will, correctly, also be noted they would do better under such a system, even if it would not mean an electoral pact even under such a system would be successful.
Or Labour's sixth most marginal seat, to put it another way. Which would still be their most devastating defeat since 1935 (and as they gained a hundred seats in that election, arguably since 1931).
When was the last time a party had a net loss of seats at six successive general elections? Even the Liberals didn't have that long a losing streak.
But I admit that I don't like any of the proportional systems I've seen proposed so far. I've said before on here, that it seems grotesque to rule out someone who's hugely second favourite just because s/he's no-one's first choice. That rejects someone everyone would be happy with in favour of someone nobody much wants.
FPTP is a much better electoral system for a Parliament - there is a higher chance of a majority and the government can be held to account on their manifesto, rather than negotiating most of it away in negotiations *after* the election.
A flaccid AV thread.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/
No ta.
1) Murray
2) Brownlee
Behind 2 of them are the worst Bond movie ever made.
You bought a ticket for SPECTRE, but now you have the choice to swap it for any other Bond movie ever...
1.14ish might be worth a lay?
Edit: Betfair have suspended with Murray at 1.24/1.29, definitely no value in laying that!
#YorkshireSecessionNow
Boring, Murray wins again. Shouldn't have won it last year.
We may share some values (at least with some members of the Labour party - not sure what the party as a whole stands for any more, which is part of the reason why no progressive alliance) but function entirely differently and our outlook is also entirely different.
More likely that more parties will split than come together.
That's 3 wins now?
Great for equitators that Skelton came third.
There had to be one other time everyone was right.
Technically a net loss of seats at five successive GEs? ('01, '05, '10, '15, '20?)
Mind you, if Labour continue like this I can see them making further losses in 2025 and even 2030. No party has a God-given right to exist but I've never come across a party with such a ferocious death wish before, not even the American Whigs.
Megabank won't go first because their top people will just move to Gigabank.
It will be all or none. I think we're well shy of that line.
Is there a subtlety that I'm missing?
Is there a subtlety that I'm missing?
It's not perfect, admittedly. If we assume people generally vote the way they want regardless there will not be a significant difference from a new voting system. It at least comes from definitive proof people have voted this way before, and guessing it might change a bit will not be too extreme, rather than complete speculation that there is a huge groundswell that people will vote differently under a different voting system.
It could be true that people would vote differently, in fact most of us presume it would be to some extent, but is the likelihood it would be so much different that we cannot take a general guess?
Nice!
With UK corporation tax going down to 17% why would banks accept an increase in excess of 13% in their corporation tax.
Furthermore the FT are avid remain and are just part of the continuing project fear
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1265984/#Comment_1265984
The Australian High Commissioner made the point that in our case, we start from a position of free trade (albeit the single market in services has never been fully completed) and it would be the UK and EU deciding if we should erect new barriers.
Not sure I'd want to be a farmer right now with my fate in the hands of the three clowns.
And we will still trade with the EU
Those wanting to remain have no vision of the opportunities available to us
In this they are of course probably wrong, as most of CAP's dismal failures in this country were caused by the extraordinary incompetence of first MAFF and later DEFRA (for example TB, RPA, Milk Marque etc). The BSE crisis being a notable exception where the EU were deliberately responsible for maliciously damaging British farming, hugely assisted by the incompetence of the Ministry of Health and the hysteria of Harriet Harman.
"Trade deals take years" appears to be a piece of EU conditioning rather than a global fact.
https://twitter.com/NCSpo/status/810601787652710400
https://twitter.com/NCSpo/status/810601976664887296
https://twitter.com/NCSpo/status/810602129811505154
How many referenda have the SNP lost?
It is noticeable that the populist discontent with the established order is particularly evident where FPTP shuts out minority views: UK, USA and France,
In practice a "Progressive Alliance" in the UK works by tactical voting rather than by explicit pacts. I can see that already happening again.
The Australians have been mocking Mr Downer's enthusiasm for Brexit - http://www.smh.com.au/world/alexander-downers-bizarre-bbc-video-urging-britain-to-get-on-with-leaving-the-eu-20161218-gtdrq7.html
"In the Government of Australia, the Minister administers the portfolio through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade jointly with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, although prior to 1987 there was a separate Department of Trade. "
Downer was not responsible for trade.
I'd suggest that Downer has more locus standi than an anonymous permaposter on the internet.
"I was the Australian foreign minister for nearly 12 years. Not once in that period did a British foreign secretary visit Australia."
We should do much more to nurture bilateral relations with Australia. Leaving the EU was never a necessary condition to making a start. If anything it was the delusion of the 'special relationship' with the US which made us forget our much closer ties with the Commonwealth.
From Russia with Love
What do you mean dahlink? My own, or other people's?
A. Wasn't she dead already; and
B. What was she famous for in the first place?